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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789


    HL

    Re your upcoming Yorkshire motoring holiday.

    Are you planning to impress Mrs HL with the worst possible Yorkshire locations or the nicest ?

    I can give you a few tips on each.


  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Millsy said:

    Newark by-election will be good news for Tories, narrative changing

    Millsy said:

    Newark by-election will be good news for Tories, narrative changing

    TOPPING said:

    Boris isn't going to Newark. It's an excellent line but it's too far out. He will have a home counties seat somewhere when it comes.

    Oh and btw what are we expecting?

    - Cons lose, he becomes MP in 2016 and immediately goes for leader
    - Cons win, he becomes MP in 2016 and goes for leader in 2020?

    Are there other scenarios?

    "It's an excellent line"

    Indeed. A great example of the benefits of nationalised railways.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Boris *must* stand

    If he defeats the Farage dragon we will walk the next conservative election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    AndyJS said:



    I knew it wouldn't be Boris.

    He has his eyes firmly set on North West Hampshire or possibly Kensington.

    IMO, only with an inner-London seat could he realistically stay on as London Mayor at the same time.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    I've got the answer - have it on the same day as the Scottish referendum.

    That way the result gets overshadowed whatever happens.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IOS said:

    Boris *must* stand

    If he defeats the Farage dragon we will walk the next conservative election.

    I'll bet any money he doesn't.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Andy McSmith ‏@andymcsmith 3m

    The chairman of Newark Conservative Association has put out a statement confirming that Robert Jenrick will be their by election candidate.

    Aww... Poor old Boris.

    Still, now the pressure is on Farage.
  • New Thread
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Has Boris already bottled it? Looks as if the Tories are fielding a complete unknown according to Twitter.

    Cameron stepped in perhaps to block the man he loathes?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    How much of the Irish GDP per capita is because it is used to funnel cash from other countries rather than really adding value to ireland per se?

    Undoubtedly some.

    But at the same time, Ireland is home to most of Europe's computer manufacturing: Dell, and Apple both build PCs there; Intel (as I mentioned) fabricates chips there. In your space, there is a lot of pharmaceutical production in Ireland. Financial services is also important: a lot of banks have put their back office functions in Dublin.

    Interestingly, and uniquely, Ireland's biggest export partner is the US. Almost a quarter of Irish exports go there.
    I agree on the manufacturing. I was more thinking about the royalties on global sales that they funnel through Ireland. Not that the UK isn't guilty of the same trick...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    The frothing of the PBTs on the previous thread was most amusing.

    Their increasingly desperate attempts to accuse UKIP of racism when we all know that they would eulogise to the skies a Conservative government if it implemented the same policies they claim to find so objectionable if they came from UKIP.

    The intellectual and practical contradictions of government immigrant policy cause this.

    We have free immigration for hundreds of millions of EU citizens - millions of whom nobody would want living anywhere near them (see Eagles's mother and the Page Hall Roma as an example) allied to Cameron's posturing pledge on immigration.

    The inevitable consequence being many immigrants of the 'wrong' sort freely migrate here while those either useful on economic grounds or deserving on persecution grounds are either stopped from coming or forcibly deported if already here.

    Unable to defend this madness the PBTs are reduced to the incoherant frothing and faux outrage we saw earlier.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Re Lib Dem losses , 350 is much too high an estimate .

    They are defending

    Non Met and Unitary councils circa 330 seats . A similar performance to 2012 would see them lose approx 100 or 2013 approx 80 .
    Met councils 129 seats . A performance as in 2012 would see them lose 58
    London councils 243 seats . A loss of 40 to 50% ( which would be very poor ) would see them lose 100 to 120 seats .
    Net loss overall should be in the range 240 to 280 .

    But you won't get a 2012 performance.

    In 2012 the LD NEV was 16%.

    In 2013 it was 13%.

    The LDs are polling lower now than they were in April 2013.

This discussion has been closed.