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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

This morning Tory chairman, Grant Shapps, sent me the above email with an invitation to take part in a conference call with the Prime Minister tonight. Although the text doesn’t say it specifically there’s a suggestion that I could be in dialogue with Mr. Cameron.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Interesting, Messina effect?

TheScreamingEagles

I see your email from Grant Shapps and raise you the invite Dave sent me on Thursday

RochdalePioneers

A great strategy - far more modern than people like me tramping the streets with leaflets or door knocking. However, if the target market is Tory defectees to UKIP - and their dislike of Cameron seems to be the theme that consistently comes out of this group- would having Cameron talk to them do any good?

TGOHF

But why call in - why not stream on the interweb ?

Richard_Nabavi

I think the Euros are hard to read. At a push I'd guess UKIP will get the largest vote share, with Labour a little behind them, and the Tories in third place.

However, what is clear is that UKIP has built up massive expectations. Anything less than first place will look like a disappointment, and first place is already 'in the price'.

Neil

Does IOS approve of the algorithm used to select people to dial in to the teleconference?

Pulpstar

The Prime Minister hasn't emailed me.

I am, however, apparently in a syndicate combination perm (576 variations) for the Scoop 6 bonus !

NickPalmer

Yes, I've had one too - they seem to have gone for every email address they could find rather than targeting UKIP (I doubt if I'm on any UKIP-leaning lists). It'll be fun to hear how it turns out.

dyedwoolie

RochdalePioneers said:

A great strategy - far more modern than people like me tramping the streets with leaflets or door knocking. However, if the target market is Tory defectees to UKIP - and their dislike of Cameron seems to be the theme that consistently comes out of this group- would having Cameron talk to them do any good?

They don't all dislike him. And it's about partly that extra couple percent now and maintaining contact for a years time when it really matters

HurstLlama

*Checks emails*

Nope, nothing from the Conservative Party. So who gets invited to these on-line meetings? How can they affect the voting intention of people that aren't invited?

MaxPB

Wow. Mega win for the Chancellor, Pfizer to move its HQ to the UK after purchasing/merging with AsteaZeneca. That's got to hurt for the US. Losing a high profile company to the UK like that is dangerous for them. It is time for the US to remove their tax claims on global and non-US profits for US based companies.

dyedwoolie

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the Euros are hard to read. At a push I'd guess UKIP will get the largest vote share, with Labour a little behind them, and the Tories in third place.

However, what is clear is that UKIP has built up massive expectations. Anything less than first place will look like a disappointment, and first place is already 'in the price'.

31/26/24 UKIP/Lab/Con

MaxPB

TGOHF said:

But why call in - why not stream on the interweb ?

Old people.

Richard_Nabavi

HurstLlama said:

*Checks emails*

Nope, nothing from the Conservative Party. So who gets invited to these on-line meetings? How can they affect the voting intention of people that aren't invited?

Looks like the algorithms have worked well.

edmundintokyo

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting, Messina effect?

If they send out an email from David Cameron with the subject line "Hey", that'll be based on the Obama campaign data.

Neil

NickPalmer said:

Yes, I've had one too - they seem to have gone for every email address they could find rather than targeting UKIP (I doubt if I'm on any UKIP-leaning lists). It'll be fun to hear how it turns out.

I somehow got on a Lib Dem email distribution list but they removed me after I responded to one of their spam efforts in a particularly forthright manner.

Richard_Nabavi

dyedwoolie said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the Euros are hard to read. At a push I'd guess UKIP will get the largest vote share, with Labour a little behind them, and the Tories in third place.

However, what is clear is that UKIP has built up massive expectations. Anything less than first place will look like a disappointment, and first place is already 'in the price'.

31/26/24 UKIP/Lab/Con

I'd guess UKIP a bit lower and Labour a bit higher, but I don't have great confidence in that guess.

isam

Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 50m

Daily Politics panel reflecting everything wrong with #Ukip debate. Four mainstream voices ganging up on populist outsider #bbcdp

Grandiose

MaxPB said:

Wow. Mega win for the Chancellor, Pfizer to move its HQ to the UK after purchasing/merging with AsteaZeneca. That's got to hurt for the US. Losing a high profile company to the UK like that is dangerous for them. It is time for the US to remove their tax claims on global and non-US profits for US based companies.

Granted PR-wise it matters less, but the actual takeover is far from complete.

taffys

That's got to hurt for the US.

Not to mention the US based employees.

SELL your huge US mansion with acres, swimming pool and treble garage.

BUY A two bedroom apartment in Acton.

Pulpstar

So this email effort has targetted OGH, a nailed on Lib Dem and Mr Palmer who rumour has it tends to vote Labour....

TGOHF

Grandiose said:

MaxPB said:

Wow. Mega win for the Chancellor, Pfizer to move its HQ to the UK after purchasing/merging with AsteaZeneca. That's got to hurt for the US. Losing a high profile company to the UK like that is dangerous for them. It is time for the US to remove their tax claims on global and non-US profits for US based companies.

Granted PR-wise it matters less, but the actual takeover is far from complete.

I think if we have got to where we are the only uncertainty is the price.

Or perhaps the EU will step in and try and block it - that would be interesting.

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

dyedwoolie said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the Euros are hard to read. At a push I'd guess UKIP will get the largest vote share, with Labour a little behind them, and the Tories in third place.

However, what is clear is that UKIP has built up massive expectations. Anything less than first place will look like a disappointment, and first place is already 'in the price'.

31/26/24 UKIP/Lab/Con

I'd guess UKIP a bit lower and Labour a bit higher, but I don't have great confidence in that guess.

ICM have UKIP on 20%

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

*Checks emails*

Nope, nothing from the Conservative Party. So who gets invited to these on-line meetings? How can they affect the voting intention of people that aren't invited?

Click the link below and you can speak to Dave, and you can tell him what a splendid job he is doing.

https://registration.broadnet.us/registration/event_registration.php?pid=524&fbs=_teleforum&sig=891f95ed202a85971bae474349cd9588e2f4c8ea101572ccf1e43031ce4fe48e

JosiasJessop

HurstLlama said:

*Checks emails*

Nope, nothing from the Conservative Party. So who gets invited to these on-line meetings? How can they affect the voting intention of people that aren't invited?

I had one towards the end of last week.

TheScreamingEagles

I would take part in this, but unfortunately I will be on the 18:20 train from Manchester Pic to Dore.

Grant/Dave, if you're reading (and we know you do), could reschedule this back an hour for me?

OldKingCole

I've not had one either. Definetly not going to vote Tory now!

Pfizer, not so long ago, moved their main research place, and, IIRC Head Office, out of UK. It was at Sandwich.

Presume the move was because we're in the EU?

Socrates

MaxPB said:

Wow. Mega win for the Chancellor, Pfizer to move its HQ to the UK after purchasing/merging with AsteaZeneca. That's got to hurt for the US. Losing a high profile company to the UK like that is dangerous for them. It is time for the US to remove their tax claims on global and non-US profits for US based companies.

I would have thought US tax policy was best set on whether the additional income they get from global and non-US profits is worth more than the US-based profits they lose by having that policy in place.

Far too many people think that policy should be changed just because a negative effect occurs, when the negative effect should always be compared to the positive effect.

SimonStClare

OGH - do you have an inkling as to who the other participants may be and the numbers involved ? - cheers in advance.

Socrates

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the Euros are hard to read. At a push I'd guess UKIP will get the largest vote share, with Labour a little behind them, and the Tories in third place.

However, what is clear is that UKIP has built up massive expectations. Anything less than first place will look like a disappointment, and first place is already 'in the price'.

The result will be primarily compared to the result last time, whatever the expectations. The difference from the expectations may be the caveat, however.

HurstLlama

Richard_Nabavi said:

HurstLlama said:

*Checks emails*

Nope, nothing from the Conservative Party. So who gets invited to these on-line meetings? How can they affect the voting intention of people that aren't invited?

Looks like the algorithms have worked well.

I'd say so Mr. N.. We know that OGH and Nick Palmer have been invited and, with due respect to both chaps, hell will freeze over before either will vote Conservative. I am not sure how this can be seen as a "hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy"

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

I would take part in this, but unfortunately I will be on the 18:20 train from Manchester Pic to Dore.

Grant/Dave, if you're reading (and we know you do), could reschedule this back an hour for me?

Sadly I'll be cooking. Why don't those evil Conservatives consider those whose feminist wives cruelly force them to cook meals? How am I supposed to listen to Dave as I create a spinach and feta pie? How can I concentrate on fulfilling my wife's every desire with Dave droning on in the background?

Besides, I'll miss the Archers ...

Alanbrooke

HurstLlama said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

HurstLlama said:

*Checks emails*

Nope, nothing from the Conservative Party. So who gets invited to these on-line meetings? How can they affect the voting intention of people that aren't invited?

Looks like the algorithms have worked well.

I'd say so Mr. N.. We know that OGH and Nick Palmer have been invited and, with due respect to both chaps, hell will freeze over before either will vote Conservative. I am not sure how this can be seen as a "hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy"

It's mobilising the opposition. Quite effective in its own way . ;-)

MikeSmithson

SimonStClare said:

OGH - do you have an inkling as to who the other participants may be and the numbers involved ? - cheers in advance.

Unfortunately Grant didn't let me know

Socrates said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think the Euros are hard to read. At a push I'd guess UKIP will get the largest vote share, with Labour a little behind them, and the Tories in third place.

However, what is clear is that UKIP has built up massive expectations. Anything less than first place will look like a disappointment, and first place is already 'in the price'.

The result will be primarily compared to the result last time, whatever the expectations. The difference from the expectations may be the caveat, however.

The expectation that Farage & co have built up is that they will win. Anything less is failure. Poll findings like the YouGov one only add to the pressure.

anotherDave

HurstLlama said:

*Checks emails*

Nope, nothing from the Conservative Party. So who gets invited to these on-line meetings? How can they affect the voting intention of people that aren't invited?

My mum got one of those. She's on the Conservatives.com junk mail list, and lives in an area with local elections this year.

TOPPING

Got one last week from Dave but I worry. He sent it at nearly one o'clock in the morning. The man needs sleep for heaven's sake; he has a country to run.

edmundintokyo

So we send UKIP leaflets back to their freepost address, we register for the Con conference call with the number of the Australian speaking clock, what's the appropriate etiquette for communicating with Lib and Lab?

DavidL

He asked me to listen to him but it is my daughter's birthday so, sorry Dave, too busy.

JosiasJessop

edmundintokyo said:

So we send UKIP leaflets back to their freepost address, we register for the Con conference call with the number of the Australian speaking clock, what's the appropriate etiquette for communicating with Lib and Lab?

I get emails from those nice people at Labour as well. Their approach seems to be ask questions with a big button below it, which leads to a set-piece page. They used to have two buttons, one for agreement and disagreement, and it was always fun to click on the 'disagree' button.

It's particularly cr@p as it pretends to want to hear your opinion, but then argues with you if you pick the 'wrong' one.

edmundintokyo

DavidL said:

He asked me to listen to him but it is my daughter's birthday so, sorry Dave, too busy.

If they're doing the Big Data thing right he'll just be calling to say Happy Birthday to her.

Richard_Tyndall

FPT

JosiasJessop asked:

"Which reports on probable costs, may I ask?"

The Chairman of HS2 for a start who on March 16th said that the current cost estimate for HS2 is £50.1 billion.

He was of course being a bit disingenuous as that was £50.1 billion at 2011 prices, not taking into account inflation.

So since the head of the whole project apparently agrees with me I think the 'upwards of £50 billion' comment I made which you objected to is not unreasonable.

HurstLlama

@JosiasJessop

" How am I supposed to listen to Dave as I create a spinach and feta pie?"

Sorry, but I read that and immediatley thought of this song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGFpVN2xwXU

Apologies, Mr. J, but feta and spinach pie, what's wrong with bangers and mash.

MrJones

HurstLlama said:

*Checks emails*

Nope, nothing from the Conservative Party. So who gets invited to these on-line meetings? How can they affect the voting intention of people that aren't invited?

The only logical explanation I can think of for Cameron is he's in the grip of a Lab supporting Svengali figure so maybe the email list was LibLab supporters so they could gather in rooms with it on speaker phone and have a laugh.

Pulpstar

@MikeSmithson Have you received the other e-mail, you know the one from Michael Green ?

CarlottaVance

edmundintokyo said:

what's the appropriate etiquette for communicating with Lib?

A seance?

JosiasJessop

HurstLlama said:

@JosiasJessop

" How am I supposed to listen to Dave as I create a spinach and feta pie?"

Sorry, but I read that and immediatley thought of this song:

(snip)

Apologies, Mr. J, but feta and spinach pie, what's wrong with bangers and mash.

Mrs J was a vegetarian when I met her. I've managed to convert her to a pescetarian (mainly because she was ill), but I doubt I'll ever get her to convert to bangers and mash!

She'll make them for me, though. And Turkish meatballs. Yum!

Slackbladder

Dave doesn't love me...no invite.. *sniff*

TGOHF

MaxPB said:

Wow. Mega win for the Chancellor, Pfizer to move its HQ to the UK after purchasing/merging with AsteaZeneca. That's got to hurt for the US. Losing a high profile company to the UK like that is dangerous for them. It is time for the US to remove their tax claims on global and non-US profits for US based companies.

It's the 1980's all over again - booming Britain - ironic that the SNP want to leave just as the good times are back.

JosiasJessop

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

JosiasJessop asked:

"Which reports on probable costs, may I ask?"

The Chairman of HS2 for a start who on March 16th said that the current cost estimate for HS2 is £50.1 billion.

He was of course being a bit disingenuous as that was £50.1 billion at 2011 prices, not taking into account inflation.

So since the head of the whole project apparently agrees with me I think the 'upwards of £50 billion' comment I made which you objected to is not unreasonable.

1) That includes all the contingency and the train costs. I.e. the worst possible case. I'm still confident it could be done for around, or even under, £35 billion, not including train costs.

2) AIUI, inflation is rarely (never?) included in such project costs. Why do you include it for this one?

3) You said 'upwards of'. Given the vast contingency priced of £14.4 bn priced into the total scheme cost of £42.6bn, why do you think it's reasonable to add more?

Now, which reports have you read?

pinball13

Is everyone washing their hair? Or is anyone here going to register, with their own phone number? I wasn't even invited.

TOPPING

pinball13 said:

Is everyone washing their hair? Or is anyone here going to register, with their own phone number? I wasn't even invited.

In the immortal words of Peter Cook: "I fear I will be watching television that night."

surbiton

One phone call and Mike is already softening !

malcolmg

TGOHF said:

MaxPB said:

Wow. Mega win for the Chancellor, Pfizer to move its HQ to the UK after purchasing/merging with AsteaZeneca. That's got to hurt for the US. Losing a high profile company to the UK like that is dangerous for them. It is time for the US to remove their tax claims on global and non-US profits for US based companies.

It's the 1980's all over again - booming Britain - ironic that the SNP want to leave just as the good times are back.

Dream on, as said by Mr Brooke earlier , remember Cadbury's. Stick a brass plate in London and move all other real jobs out , big win for UK.

malcolmg

FPT
Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: Blog: Alex Salmond admires Putin: one more way in which he's the Scottish Nigel Farage http://t.co/nBBmA5Q2TN

I see the writer is as big a liar as you Scott, though he at least writes his own lies. I see he gets lots of support in the comments from every party viewpoint and country in the UK on the crapness of his article and how dire it is.

DavidL

edmundintokyo said:

DavidL said:

He asked me to listen to him but it is my daughter's birthday so, sorry Dave, too busy.

If they're doing the Big Data thing right he'll just be calling to say Happy Birthday to her.

Well that would have been nice. But I understand he wants to talk about the EU. For half an hour. I mean, as one of my children once said to me when asked if they needed to discuss sex education any more: "it's just not that interesting."

Interesting and innovative idea though.

Scott_P

And yet – and here we discover an illuminating difference in standard – it remains the case that the SNP find Britain’s aspirations to “Great Power” status both ridiculous and distasteful. The UK clings to faded imperial “glory” and looks absurd. It should face reality and accept the world has changed. The world has moved on and so should Britain. Come in Colonel Blimp, your time was up long ago.

Fine. If that’s the sort of thing you like it’s the sort of thing you like. But Putin’s policy – both domestic and abroad – is designed to reassert Russia’s place as a Great Power. The collapse of the Soviet Union – that is, of Russia’s internal empire – was a calamity and if the USSR cannot be revived Russian pride can and Putin’s Eurasian Union, the next best thing to the USSR, will have to do what it can to compensate for that tragedy [sic].

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/alex-salmonds-strange-but-revealing-admiration-for-vladimir-putin/

Richard_Tyndall

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

JosiasJessop asked:

"Which reports on probable costs, may I ask?"

The Chairman of HS2 for a start who on March 16th said that the current cost estimate for HS2 is £50.1 billion.

He was of course being a bit disingenuous as that was £50.1 billion at 2011 prices, not taking into account inflation.

So since the head of the whole project apparently agrees with me I think the 'upwards of £50 billion' comment I made which you objected to is not unreasonable.

1) That includes all the contingency and the train costs. I.e. the worst possible case. I'm still confident it could be done for around, or even under, £35 billion, not including train costs.

2) AIUI, inflation is rarely (never?) included in such project costs. Why do you include it for this one?

3) You said 'upwards of'. Given the vast contingency priced of £14.4 bn priced into the total scheme cost of £42.6bn, why do you think it's reasonable to add more?

Now, which reports have you read?

So you don't believe the report by the Institute of Economic Affairs and you don't believe the report by the Chairman of the whole project. I am struggling to know what you would believe if you can so easily disregard those two reports.

Of course you are also aware that the only way Higgins was able to keep the costs at around £50 billion was by reducing the scope of the project so clearly the contingency fund already looks to be under threat.

CarlottaVance

@Scott_P - as long as Salmond does not ride a horse bare chested......

JosiasJessop

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

JosiasJessop asked:

"Which reports on probable costs, may I ask?"

The Chairman of HS2 for a start who on March 16th said that the current cost estimate for HS2 is £50.1 billion.

He was of course being a bit disingenuous as that was £50.1 billion at 2011 prices, not taking into account inflation.

So since the head of the whole project apparently agrees with me I think the 'upwards of £50 billion' comment I made which you objected to is not unreasonable.

1) That includes all the contingency and the train costs. I.e. the worst possible case. I'm still confident it could be done for around, or even under, £35 billion, not including train costs.

2) AIUI, inflation is rarely (never?) included in such project costs. Why do you include it for this one?

3) You said 'upwards of'. Given the vast contingency priced of £14.4 bn priced into the total scheme cost of £42.6bn, why do you think it's reasonable to add more?

Now, which reports have you read?

So you don't believe the report by the Institute of Economic Affairs and you don't believe the report by the Chairman of the whole project. I am struggling to know what you would believe if you can so easily disregard those two reports.

Of course you are also aware that the only way Higgins was able to keep the costs at around £50 billion was by reducing the scope of the project so clearly the contingency fund already looks to be under threat.

If you believe the IEA report then there's no hope. It included Crossrail 2, ffs. Please explain why that is valid and, if you think it is, why such 'additions' should not be added to other infrastructure projects. Including ones you may favour.

I've explained the costings and contingency values.

Have you read any other report aside from the IEA one?

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

And yet – and here we discover an illuminating difference in standard – it remains the case that the SNP find Britain’s aspirations to “Great Power” status both ridiculous and distasteful. The UK clings to faded imperial “glory” and looks absurd. It should face reality and accept the world has changed. The world has moved on and so should Britain. Come in Colonel Blimp, your time was up long ago.

Fine. If that’s the sort of thing you like it’s the sort of thing you like. But Putin’s policy – both domestic and abroad – is designed to reassert Russia’s place as a Great Power. The collapse of the Soviet Union – that is, of Russia’s internal empire – was a calamity and if the USSR cannot be revived Russian pride can and Putin’s Eurasian Union, the next best thing to the USSR, will have to do what it can to compensate for that tragedy [sic].

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/alex-salmonds-strange-but-revealing-admiration-for-vladimir-putin/

How desperate can you loonies get

PS , even given it is by Massie who is excellent and is actually a very good review of the topic. He gives an intelligent viewpoint and is nothing like the rabid dog stuff that most of the unionists post. He is one Tory I really like , unfortunately not enough to balance the normal turnips like Scott.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

@Scott_P - as long as Salmond does not ride a horse bare chested......

Carlotta, admit it you are secretly wishing he would

DavidL

Interesting contrast: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/10792923/Francois-Hollandes-intervention-in-Alstom-takeover-is-de-rigueur-in-France.html

France are desperately trying to stop the Americans from taking over Alstom and looking for help from the Germans instead.

Is it any wonder that the UK is the largest recipient of foreign investment in the EU?

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

And yet – and here we discover an illuminating difference in standard – it remains the case that the SNP find Britain’s aspirations to “Great Power” status both ridiculous and distasteful. The UK clings to faded imperial “glory” and looks absurd. It should face reality and accept the world has changed. The world has moved on and so should Britain. Come in Colonel Blimp, your time was up long ago.

Fine. If that’s the sort of thing you like it’s the sort of thing you like. But Putin’s policy – both domestic and abroad – is designed to reassert Russia’s place as a Great Power. The collapse of the Soviet Union – that is, of Russia’s internal empire – was a calamity and if the USSR cannot be revived Russian pride can and Putin’s Eurasian Union, the next best thing to the USSR, will have to do what it can to compensate for that tragedy [sic].

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/alex-salmonds-strange-but-revealing-admiration-for-vladimir-putin/

How desperate can you loonies getIt's not just the two leaders. The activists of both parties also adopt an eerily similar tone of voice on the internet: that of the school bully, sarcastic, turned on by cruelty, and always, always playing for their gallery.

CarlottaVance

Clifford guilty on all 4 of the seven counts read so far....

dyedwoolie

Clifford, the dirty old man

CarlottaVance

James Forsyth tweets: At Ukip SE launch, Diane James says 'local manipulation of the postal vote' cost her victory in the Eastleigh by-election. Big accusation

JosiasJessop

Councillor suspended from Lib Dems in Cambridge pending investigation:

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Colin-Rosenstiel-suspended-from-Lib-Dem-group-on-Cambridge-City-Council-over-child-assault-charge-but-will-still-be-on-ballot-paper-for-party-in-Mays-elections-20140428060245.htm

Smarmeron

@DavidL
"Is it any wonder that the UK is the largest recipient of foreign investment in the EU? "

"UK 'a tax haven for multinationals'"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27187398

Nope, and with our handy links to other "tax havens" in the Caribbean, and a casual attitude to various "schemes", London will soon be the Chicago of the north.

Richard_Tyndall

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

JosiasJessop asked:

"Which reports on probable costs, may I ask?"

The Chairman of HS2 for a start who on March 16th said that the current cost estimate for HS2 is £50.1 billion.

He was of course being a bit disingenuous as that was £50.1 billion at 2011 prices, not taking into account inflation.

So since the head of the whole project apparently agrees with me I think the 'upwards of £50 billion' comment I made which you objected to is not unreasonable.

1) That includes all the contingency and the train costs. I.e. the worst possible case. I'm still confident it could be done for around, or even under, £35 billion, not including train costs.

2) AIUI, inflation is rarely (never?) included in such project costs. Why do you include it for this one?

3) You said 'upwards of'. Given the vast contingency priced of £14.4 bn priced into the total scheme cost of £42.6bn, why do you think it's reasonable to add more?

Now, which reports have you read?

So you don't believe the report by the Institute of Economic Affairs and you don't believe the report by the Chairman of the whole project. I am struggling to know what you would believe if you can so easily disregard those two reports.

Of course you are also aware that the only way Higgins was able to keep the costs at around £50 billion was by reducing the scope of the project so clearly the contingency fund already looks to be under threat.

If you believe the IEA report then there's no hope. It included Crossrail 2, ffs. Please explain why that is valid and, if you think it is, why such 'additions' should not be added to other infrastructure projects. Including ones you may favour.

I've explained the costings and contingency values.

Have you read any other report aside from the IEA one?

Which IEA report the one from 2011, the one from last September or the one from today? I have read all three.

And yes I also read the cost/benefits report by the KPMG which is so partial and laughable in its assumptions of the benefits as to be utterly useless. And it was comprehensively trashed as such when it came out.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

And yet – and here we discover an illuminating difference in standard – it remains the case that the SNP find Britain’s aspirations to “Great Power” status both ridiculous and distasteful. The UK clings to faded imperial “glory” and looks absurd. It should face reality and accept the world has changed. The world has moved on and so should Britain. Come in Colonel Blimp, your time was up long ago.

Fine. If that’s the sort of thing you like it’s the sort of thing you like. But Putin’s policy – both domestic and abroad – is designed to reassert Russia’s place as a Great Power. The collapse of the Soviet Union – that is, of Russia’s internal empire – was a calamity and if the USSR cannot be revived Russian pride can and Putin’s Eurasian Union, the next best thing to the USSR, will have to do what it can to compensate for that tragedy [sic].

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/alex-salmonds-strange-but-revealing-admiration-for-vladimir-putin/

How desperate can you loonies get

It's not just the two leaders. The activists of both parties also adopt an eerily similar tone of voice on the internet: that of the school bully, sarcastic, turned on by cruelty, and always, always playing for their gallery.


Hopefully you do not think I am an activist rather than just Mr Angry.

CarlottaVance

dyedwoolie said:

Clifford, the dirty old man

Guilty of 8 charges of indecent assault, including some against 15 year old girl, not guilty on two, no verdict on 11th charge.

JosiasJessop

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

JosiasJessop asked:

"Which reports on probable costs, may I ask?"

The Chairman of HS2 for a start who on March 16th said that the current cost estimate for HS2 is £50.1 billion.

He was of course being a bit disingenuous as that was £50.1 billion at 2011 prices, not taking into account inflation.

So since the head of the whole project apparently agrees with me I think the 'upwards of £50 billion' comment I made which you objected to is not unreasonable.

1) That includes all the contingency and the train costs. I.e. the worst possible case. I'm still confident it could be done for around, or even under, £35 billion, not including train costs.

2) AIUI, inflation is rarely (never?) included in such project costs. Why do you include it for this one?

3) You said 'upwards of'. Given the vast contingency priced of £14.4 bn priced into the total scheme cost of £42.6bn, why do you think it's reasonable to add more?

Now, which reports have you read?

So you don't believe the report by the Institute of Economic Affairs and you don't believe the report by the Chairman of the whole project. I am struggling to know what you would believe if you can so easily disregard those two reports.

Of course you are also aware that the only way Higgins was able to keep the costs at around £50 billion was by reducing the scope of the project so clearly the contingency fund already looks to be under threat.

If you believe the IEA report then there's no hope. It included Crossrail 2, ffs. Please explain why that is valid and, if you think it is, why such 'additions' should not be added to other infrastructure projects. Including ones you may favour.

I've explained the costings and contingency values.

Have you read any other report aside from the IEA one?

Which IEA report the one from 2011, the one from last September or the one from today? I have read all three.

And yes I also read the cost/benefits report by the KPMG which is so partial and laughable in its assumptions of the benefits as to be utterly useless. And it was comprehensively trashed as such when it came out.

All three IEA reports are problematic. The £80 billion one being laughably so. Do you at least admit that?

Are you also aware that there may be a cost to not doing anything?

malcolmg

Smarmeron said:

@DavidL
"Is it any wonder that the UK is the largest recipient of foreign investment in the EU? "

"UK 'a tax haven for multinationals'"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27187398

Nope, and with our handy links to other "tax havens" in the Caribbean, and a casual attitude to various "schemes", London will soon be the Chicago of the north.

Biggest laundromat in the world, what a claim to fame.

CarlottaVance

It's 'have a go at Salmond' day (for a change):

Now it's the Left's turn:

Scottish first minister Alex Salmond likes to portray himself as a champion of equality. Commenting on the recent promotion of two women to ministerial posts in the Scottish government, Salmond said the promotions “underline our [the SNP's] commitment to equality, to pensions and to helping the young people of Scotland into the workplace”.
Salmond also likes to posit the SNP as a kind of left-wing alternative to Labour north of the border.

Strange, then, to find the SNP leader cosying up to the ultra-conservative Russian leader Vladimir Putin and working alongside a man who led a campaign to keep Section 28, the homophobic piece of Tory legislation which forbade councils from “promoting homosexuality”.

http://www.leftfootforward.org/2014/04/alex-salmond-champion-of-equality-not/

dyedwoolie

CarlottaVance said:

dyedwoolie said:

Clifford, the dirty old man

Guilty of 8 charges of indecent assault, including some against 15 year old girl, not guilty on two, no verdict on 11th charge.

Good. Repugnant old ambulance chaser. Always enjoyable seeing people like him banged up.

SimonStClare

dyedwoolie said:

Clifford, the dirty old man

Is there anyone Max can call upon to spin this to the media as ‘a career enhancing moment’ - Or is this a case of ’physician heal thy self’

CarlottaVance

Salmond a la Putin:

Twitter.com/alexmassie/status/460769318343417858/photo/1

malcolmg

Putin on his way to meet Alex after independence.
http://tinyurl.com/lngfkob

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

Salmond a la Putin:

twitter.com/alexmassie/status/460769318343417858/photo/1

LOL

dyedwoolie

SimonStClare said:

dyedwoolie said:

Clifford, the dirty old man

Is there anyone Max can call upon to spin this to the media as ‘a career enhancing moment’ - Or is this a case of ’physician heal thy self’

There's that Clarence bloke the McCanns used, but I doubt he's want to be associated with a sex pest

dyedwoolie

That's to say, he definitely wouldnt

CarlottaVance

dyedwoolie said:

CarlottaVance said:

dyedwoolie said:

Clifford, the dirty old man

Guilty of 8 charges of indecent assault, including some against 15 year old girl, not guilty on two, no verdict on 11th charge.

Good. Repugnant old ambulance chaser. Always enjoyable seeing people like him banged up.

I'm sure the CPS is heaving a sigh of relief - if another high profile 'celebrity' trial had resulted in acquittal they would have faced more pressure 'not to rock the boat'.....

TOPPING

CarlottaVance said:

It's 'have a go at Salmond' day (for a change):

Now it's the Left's turn:

Scottish first minister Alex Salmond likes to portray himself as a champion of equality. Commenting on the recent promotion of two women to ministerial posts in the Scottish government, Salmond said the promotions “underline our [the SNP's] commitment to equality, to pensions and to helping the young people of Scotland into the workplace”.
Salmond also likes to posit the SNP as a kind of left-wing alternative to Labour north of the border.

Strange, then, to find the SNP leader cosying up to the ultra-conservative Russian leader Vladimir Putin and working alongside a man who led a campaign to keep Section 28, the homophobic piece of Tory legislation which forbade councils from “promoting homosexuality”.

http://www.leftfootforward.org/2014/04/alex-salmond-champion-of-equality-not/

Typical idiotic left. Have they not cottoned on to the fact (cf UKIP) that the more "the establishment" criticises mavericks the more support hardens?

For Scotland I have no idea of the outcome of the vote, as a conservative Conservative I would vote for the status quo and therefore project my own feelings onto the indyref in thinking No will edge it, but I am not an 18-30yr old Scottish patriot who might very much enjoy the thrill of voting "Yes".

dyedwoolie

CarlottaVance said:

dyedwoolie said:

CarlottaVance said:

dyedwoolie said:

Clifford, the dirty old man

Guilty of 8 charges of indecent assault, including some against 15 year old girl, not guilty on two, no verdict on 11th charge.

Good. Repugnant old ambulance chaser. Always enjoyable seeing people like him banged up.

I'm sure the CPS is heaving a sigh of relief - if another high profile 'celebrity' trial had resulted in acquittal they would have faced more pressure 'not to rock the boat'.....

Quite, good to see Evansgate hasn't stopped actual perverts from being done

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

And yet – and here we discover an illuminating difference in standard – it remains the case that the SNP find Britain’s aspirations to “Great Power” status both ridiculous and distasteful. The UK clings to faded imperial “glory” and looks absurd. It should face reality and accept the world has changed. The world has moved on and so should Britain. Come in Colonel Blimp, your time was up long ago.

Fine. If that’s the sort of thing you like it’s the sort of thing you like. But Putin’s policy – both domestic and abroad – is designed to reassert Russia’s place as a Great Power. The collapse of the Soviet Union – that is, of Russia’s internal empire – was a calamity and if the USSR cannot be revived Russian pride can and Putin’s Eurasian Union, the next best thing to the USSR, will have to do what it can to compensate for that tragedy [sic].

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/alex-salmonds-strange-but-revealing-admiration-for-vladimir-putin/

How desperate can you loonies get

It's not just the two leaders. The activists of both parties also adopt an eerily similar tone of voice on the internet: that of the school bully, sarcastic, turned on by cruelty, and always, always playing for their gallery.

Hopefully you do not think I am an activist rather than just Mr Angry.Mr Angry suits you to a tee.....and it also appears to be a requirement for (many) activists!

volcanopete

Are you fit to be British? Take the Ukip test.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/are-you-fit-to-be-british-take-the-ukip-test/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=are-you-fit-to-be-british-take-the-ukip-test&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Pulpstar

Clifford LOL !

anotherDave

"In a low turnout election like the Euros the Tories can really enhance their position by getting their more marginal voters to turnout"

Isn't this more likely to cause problems for the LDs in the local elections, than UKIP in the EU Parliament ones?

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

Salmond a la Putin:

Twitter.com/alexmassie/status/460769318343417858/photo/1

Be a lot cheaper for Holyrood to get him a horse than have to meet his taxi expenses....

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Salmond a la Putin:

twitter.com/alexmassie/status/460769318343417858/photo/1

LOL

There's more:

www.twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/460769602025177088/photo/1

MikeK

Good afternoon.

I don't know what was written earlier, but if Mike Smithson, "On the face of it this is quite appealing and my guess is that it will get a good response rate," thinks that he will get a chance to speak to Cammo personally, then he is more of a fantasist than many of us.

Cammo would have to be on the phone 24 hrs a day, without food or sleep, to speak to just 144 people a day, for just 10 minutes.

It's a load of phony bollocks and OGH has fallen for it. I'm sure many will fall for it; at first. Only to be doubly disappointed and let down when the truth perculates through their befuddled minds. Oh joy!

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

And yet – and here we discover an illuminating difference in standard – it remains the case that the SNP find Britain’s aspirations to “Great Power” status both ridiculous and distasteful. The UK clings to faded imperial “glory” and looks absurd. It should face reality and accept the world has changed. The world has moved on and so should Britain. Come in Colonel Blimp, your time was up long ago.

Fine. If that’s the sort of thing you like it’s the sort of thing you like. But Putin’s policy – both domestic and abroad – is designed to reassert Russia’s place as a Great Power. The collapse of the Soviet Union – that is, of Russia’s internal empire – was a calamity and if the USSR cannot be revived Russian pride can and Putin’s Eurasian Union, the next best thing to the USSR, will have to do what it can to compensate for that tragedy [sic].

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/alex-salmonds-strange-but-revealing-admiration-for-vladimir-putin/

How desperate can you loonies get

It's not just the two leaders. The activists of both parties also adopt an eerily similar tone of voice on the internet: that of the school bully, sarcastic, turned on by cruelty, and always, always playing for their gallery.

Hopefully you do not think I am an activist rather than just Mr Angry.

Mr Angry suits you to a tee.....and it also appears to be a requirement for (many) activists!



In real life I am a big pussycat, it is just a bit of fun so do not take me seriously , unless I am being nice.

CarlottaVance

Pulpstar said:

Clifford LOL !

Clifford was granted conditional bail but told by the judge that that should not be taken as an indication of the sentence that will be passed on Friday.

Heavy hint that it will be custodial?

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/apr/28/max-clifford-guilty-indecent-assault-teenage-girls

SimonStClare

@MikeK – I take it from your petulant response you were also not invited ; )

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Salmond a la Putin:

twitter.com/alexmassie/status/460769318343417858/photo/1

LOL

There's more:

www.twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/460769602025177088/photo/1

I do like Massie, intelligent and has a good sense of humour , not up himself as much as the majority of the dullard journalists who think they are great but are in fact cretins.

CarlottaVance

I fear he has a point:

If Ed Miliband is the Union’s saviour then the Union is doomed
With apologies to John Rentoul, Can Ed Miliband save the Union? is a question to which the answer is God help us all.

I admit to a blind spot vis a vis the Labour leader: Looks like Gussie Fink-Nottle, thinks like a Marxist Madeline Bassett. Clever enough in a droopy kind of way but, ultimately, a gawd-help-us kind of fellow.

I wasn’t very impressed last time Mr Miliband came to Scotland and so I wasn’t inclined to be impressed by his most recent trip to Glasgow. Which is dandy because I wasn’t.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/if-ed-miliband-is-the-unions-saviour-then-the-union-is-doomed/

MikeK

volcanopete said:

Are you fit to be British? Take the Ukip test.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/are-you-fit-to-be-british-take-the-ukip-test/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=are-you-fit-to-be-british-take-the-ukip-test&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

One thing is true in all the above, and that is Nick Cohen has gone a trifle crazy and is frothing at the mouth like one infected with Rabies. Ah, I see now! Old Nick has been bitten by UKIP. LOL

dyedwoolie

MikeK said:

Good afternoon.

I don't know what was written earlier, but if Mike Smithson, "On the face of it this is quite appealing and my guess is that it will get a good response rate," thinks that he will get a chance to speak to Cammo personally, then he is more of a fantasist than many of us.

Cammo would have to be on the phone 24 hrs a day, without food or sleep, to speak to just 144 people a day, for just 10 minutes.

It's a load of phony bollocks and OGH has fallen for it. I'm sure many will fall for it; at first. Only to be doubly disappointed and let down when the truth perculates through their befuddled minds. Oh joy!

Yeah, like all those people that go to QT and don't get to ask a question, they all flock to UKIP in disgust

MaxPB

MikeK said:

Good afternoon.

I don't know what was written earlier, but if Mike Smithson, "On the face of it this is quite appealing and my guess is that it will get a good response rate," thinks that he will get a chance to speak to Cammo personally, then he is more of a fantasist than many of us.

Cammo would have to be on the phone 24 hrs a day, without food or sleep, to speak to just 144 people a day, for just 10 minutes.

It's a load of phony bollocks and OGH has fallen for it. I'm sure many will fall for it; at first. Only to be doubly disappointed and let down when the truth perculates through their befuddled minds. Oh joy!

I guess you've never heard of conference calling before...

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Salmond a la Putin:

twitter.com/alexmassie/status/460769318343417858/photo/1

LOL

There's more:

www.twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/460769602025177088/photo/1

I do like Massie, intelligent and has a good sense of humour , not up himself as much as the majority of the dullard journalists who think they are great but are in fact cretins.

You'll probably like the article I've just linked to then!