Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Opinium online poll for the Observer sees the gap
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Opinium online poll for the Observer sees the gap getting closer.
After yesterday’s Populus poll which had both CON and LAB on 35% each the latest online poll from Opinium for the Observer sees a change from a 6% lead to a 2% one in the past fortnight.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The FN may have recently softened their tone on homosexuality, but could you imagine Farage having made some of the comments that were made in the past? Ultimately, FN is a populist party. One would struggle, for example, to think of the CEO of even a small French company who would publicly support the FN.
I think the AfD is very different. It is a eurosceptic pro-business party, whose major issue with the EU is excessive regulation, and is largely opposed to the Euro on the basis that the German taxpayer is on the hook for profligate Greeks.
It is quite possible the the FN - at some point - wins the French presidency. But that would be a disaster for France. Not because of its EU-scepticism, but because the biggest problem France suffers from is an overly activist government that interferes with every part of the economy, and that results in excessive regulation, excessive taxation, and excessive spending. The FN might interfere differently in the French economy, but it would still interfere excessively and expensively.
You mean you are surprised it has held up in the face of the front page smears from The Times and the allegations of racism from Labour MPs?
The tweet you retweeted on the last thread highlighted the resilience of the Kippers
Opinium's March polls gave UKIP 15%, and 16%, so UKIP are currently towards the top of their range with Opinium.
http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-8th-april-2014
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
btw, how did you resist commenting on this stupendous front cover?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bl20PfeCQAAs7aA.jpg
When canvassing there are many Greens who had voted Lib Dem but will go back home to their party now..
Kingston,Sutton,Richmond,Southwark and possibly. Camden
40% Con i no longer think is unobtainable.....
In France, patriotism has always been much more acceptable than in the UK. (In that respect, it's much more like the US than the UK.) And the FN has done a great job of tapping into that, and tying that tradition (with its sole proprietor / small business owner constituency) with that of many French who feel disenfranchised.
However, the solutions they propose (if we drift away from the EU issue for a moment) are distinctly protectionist and un-free market. Richard Tyndall and Socrates - for example - see the EU as a barrier to a free trade UK. The FN sees the EU as a barrier to a protectionist France. The idea that cutting France off from the rest of the world would solve its unemployment problems (which are rooted in policies designed to 'protect' French jobs) is laughable, and that's why I see the FN as a very different party (where Euro-scepticism is only a small piece of the platform) to either UKIP or the AfD.
UKIP 2015 is a much harder beast to categorise. It is socially conservative, and has elements of economic populism, but for now at least, is still a party of the right.
If we define those who caucus in the ECR as Eurorealist, and EFD as euroskeptic, then combined they are predicted to achieve <100 seats, which is less than 15% of the 750-strong Parliament
If we then throw in the non-inscrits as fellow travellers, then that brings it up to 170 seats (about 23%)
But then I would.
But you are right; as people walk to the polling station or their pens hover over their postal vote, they will consider who is best placed to safeguard the recovery they are reading about (some of them will be feeling it; more by 2015).
And that means 40% is achievable.
2) I thought he was harshly dealt by with the sacking
3) As a Liverpool fan I don't want to do anything hubristic
4) I'm a nervous wreck just thinking about football these days
5) I'm at Anfield tomorrow, whatever the result, I'm going to be a wreck and crying like a disgraced Televangelist.
Honestly, I preferred it when we were managed by Roy Hodgson and losing to Northampton town.
Election watchdogs have apologised after a political party was allowed to use the description ‘Remember Lee Rigby’ on its ballot papers.
The Electoral Commission has issued a public apology for the ‘mistake’ and said it had spoken to the family of the murdered soldier from Middleton to say sorry.
Lee’s mum Lyn Rigby however blasted the commission and said she was ‘heartbroken’ that her son’s name was allowed to be used by the party for promotion.
The watchdogs said in a statement that it had ‘only just realised the mistake’.
The ‘Britain First’ political party, which is fielding candidates in the European Elections, was allowed to use the slogan ‘Remember Lee Rigby’ on its voting slips for next month’s polls
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/lee-rigbys-mother-outraged-after-7037042
Dontcha just love FPTP...?
34 plus 7 rump Lib Dems..... They better hope the slide halts, there won't be any red liberals left to help in the marginals, or here will and Labour will be under 30 with Libs back up to a mighty 12 or 13
Politics is broken
The FN policy is that government should be responsible for the provision of energy, transport, and banking services.
It also believes that competition from foreign companies destroys the jobs of French workers.
Those economic policies could have come out of the 1983 Labour manifesto.
Lab 276
Con 254
UKIP 80
LD 12
Nats 10
NI 18
Con-UKIP coalition?
Is that the same Nick Cohen who was a cheerleader for the Iraq War based on the crackpot WMD's conspiracy theory?
I think he was more a cheerleader for the Iraq war on the basis that it should be the policy of the West to go around invading countries whose leaders we didn't like...
Insert your own joke.
This reminds me of how the Guardian promised the terrors of the earth if Boris Johnson got elected as Mayor of London. You can only cry wolf so often.
In a match between Manchester United and Norwich, and it is the Manchester United manager who is (in)famous for sleeping with a member of his own family.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10790504/Ukip-in-new-racism-row-after-Lenny-Henry-insult.html
Oh A Black Country
But then looking at it, they'd already surged between Dec 2013 and Feb 2014.
2009 result: 12.8%
2013 dec poll: 13%
2014 feb poll: 18%
2014 apr poll: 20%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Welsh_polls
correction. ...countries whose leaders Israel didn't like...
Fiddle with the details of a couple of insults in there and you've got Tony Benn instead.
**
And see, that's where defenses of UKIP only being motivated by concern for working-class people falls down. I'm a leftie who's in favour of strict immigration controls because I do think British people getting jobs should be the priority ahead of immigrants (frankly, it's also letting the governments of those other countries off the hook, letting them off their responsibility to provide jobs for all their citizens). But saying there's a "culture of criminality" in Romania and that anyone should be scared of Romanians moving into their street is racism, pure and simple.
UKIP must at some point clarify for its' more elderly supporters whether it accepts a health care system that is funded through general taxation and is free at the point of need which seems incompatible with"small-state" ideology.
(Or, UKIP voters are uncommonly healthy)
"Indeed, meeting and speaking to the Poles who have settled here, what is striking is just how self-reliant and aspirational they are.
Conversely, the men I see propped up in the doorway of The Shirley Hotel Pub in the midday sun, with a pint in one hand and a cigarette in the other, are British, not Polish.
Similarly, the harassed mothers with toddlers and babies, manhandling their buggies through the doors of the local McDonald’s, are screeching at their children in English, not Polish.
Among the Phillipses’ Polish customers is 29-year-old Pawel Krasinski, the man they fondly refer to as ‘Mr Juicy’. He is buying armfuls of carrots and celery for the cold-pressed fresh fruit and vegetable juice business he runs from his nearby home.
‘I came from south-west Poland seven years ago,’ he says. ‘I worked as a nutritionist there, but over here I found work with a food manufacturer and learnt everything I needed to know to set up my own food business. I could never have done that in Poland. There are better opportunities here if you are prepared to work hard.’.......
The idea that they are taking jobs from local people is not true either. I had a big employer come to me in desperation because he needed 40 people for his work force and not one person had replied to his advert in the Job Centre.
‘Within two days of alerting the local community, he had 80 applications from Polish workers. They don’t undercut anyone else’s wages and they are paying their taxes.
‘When they first arrive, Polish people are prepared to take most jobs because they understand that they have to prove themselves.’"
For anyone who wants to know what the Heartbleed bug is/was, and why it was so dangerous, here is an excellent, albeit simplified, summary:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rE5dW3BTpn4#t=339
And a (slightly) more technical one, showing the code itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dOCHwf8zVQ
Motto: always validate user input...
It's really shocking that this bug was out in the wild for so long, and is in fact so simple and contrary to the specification. Of course, I'd never do such a thing. Ahem.
So today's 18% is looking good for this year's elections!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013
**
And see, that's where defenses of UKIP only being motivated by concern for working-class people falls down. I'm a leftie who's in favour of strict immigration controls because I do think British people getting jobs should be the priority ahead of immigrants (frankly, it's also letting the governments of those other countries off the hook, letting them off their responsibility to provide jobs for all their citizens). But saying there's a "culture of criminality" in Romania and that anyone should be scared of Romanians moving into their street is racism, pure and simple.
Not racist. If you visit Romania and neighbouring countries you will find a people called the Roma who prefer to live by their own laws and practices rather than those of their host nation. Italy and France have had severe problems with them recently.
Members of the 1922 committee say he should decide quickly as dithering is a distraction from the business of governing
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/26/tories-boris-johnson-becoming-mp
Should we see another close poll over the next few days it would seem likely that Dr Fisher's next set of figures could show a marked change, largely reversing or even eliminating Labour's closing of the gap which he has been reporting over the past 4 weeks.
The fellow looked as if he would explode, but did manage to keep composed. The procedure went well.
Since then I do not discuss politics in front of patients, though my colleagues know my party.
Because, as we all know those pesky jooz control the world... <<sigh>>
Manuel Valls, France's socialist PM;
"The Roma should return to their country and be integrated over there," Mr Valls declared.
"They should return to Romania or Bulgaria and for that the European Union, with the Bulgarian and Romanian authorities must ensure these populations are firstly integrated in their countries."
"It's illusory to think that we can resolve the problem of the Roma population solely via insertion (into French society)," he said. "There is no other solution than dismantling these camps progressively and deporting (the Roma)."
Opinium 30 April 2013: Con 28%, Lab 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 17%
Local elections 2 May 2013: Con 25%, Lab 29%, LD 13%, UKIP 22%
Opinium 10 April 2014: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 18%
Opinium 26 April 2014: Con 32%, Lab 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 18%
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Independent on Sunday front page - "Will nothing sink Farage?" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/PeBCohUBfZ
Others are:
Con: polling up, Lab: same, LD: polling down, UKIP: polling up.
"Your health comes first" rings a few bells with this generation and maybe they just need reminding.
There lies UKIP's achilles heel.
All the parties will release policy proposals for the NHS, and public spending ahead of the general election.
Sunday Times front page - "UKIP’s surge into lead rocks Tories" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/dUUp4stQp9
UKIP 31
Lab 28
Con 19
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/apr/11/wales-england-border-nhs-line-death-cameron
Vote Labour for a premature death.
Con 19%, Lab 28%, UKIP 31%
Lab minus 2, UKIP plus 4, Con minus 3
http://www.xkcd.com/1354/
“@LouiseMensch: Terrific work by @sajidjavid to kill the #Leveson regulation within weeks of taking Culture job. #freepress” dude
Btw Neil's tip for Tower Hamlets Mayor to retain his seat Lutfur Rahman - Shadsy has moved into 5/4 from 6/4.
John Biggs still 4/7.