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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Opinium online poll for the Observer sees the gap

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  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    YouGov Euros poll for the Sunday TImes

    UKIP 31

    Lab 28

    Con 19

    This will not only send shockwaves to the tories,you can't tell me that this will not make labour nervous,the next party of government can't win a major election - lol

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited April 2014
    Sunday Times say

    UKIP could profit from further Tory troubles this week because the disgraced MP Patrick Mercer is set to quit and force a by-election over a cash for questions scandal.

    The Commons standards committee will meet on Tuesday to ban him from parliament for six months. The MP for Newark, a winnable seat for UKIP, has told friends that if he is suspended for more than a month he will have to stand down.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    Scott_P said:

    Off-topic:

    For anyone who wants to know what the Heartbleed bug is/was, and why it was so dangerous, here is an excellent, albeit simplified, summary:

    Motto: always validate user input...

    I liked this one

    http://www.xkcd.com/1354/
    Heh. I hadn't actually seen that one. Thanks.

    I've yet to have a nightmare about bugs I may have introduced into my code, but it can't be long before I do.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited April 2014

    Lib Dems on 9% on that Euros poll

    Charles said:

    Tories call on Boris Johnson to make up his mind over becoming MP

    Members of the 1922 committee say he should decide quickly as dithering is a distraction from the business of governing

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/26/tories-boris-johnson-becoming-mp

    I can't see Boris standing for Parliament (that expression somehow now sounds rather quaint) unless and until there is a clear indication of when Dave is likely to quit the leadership - of course that could happen as early as this autumn should there be a "Yes" vote in the Scottish Indy referendum.
    I was in Hampshire NW today. People there absolutely unenthused by the prospect of Boris as their MP. They are smart enough to realise he is a self-centred buffoon who would be a dreadful constituency MP

    I've heard him talked about in none too flattering terms by true blue Conservative grass roots people.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Sunday Times say

    UKIP could profit from further Tory troubles this week because the disgraced MP Patrick Mercer is set to quit and force a by-election over a cash for questions scandal.

    The Commons standards committee will meet on Tuesday to ban him from parliament for six months. The MP for Newark, a winnable seat for UKIP, has told friends that if he is suspended for more than a month he will have to stand down.

    The tories won't want a by-election. I suspect Mr Cameron would offer him whatever gift within HMG patronage he wanted.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is this the first time Con + UKIP = 50%?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch · 23 mins
    Terrific work by @sajidjavid to kill the #Leveson regulation within weeks of taking Culture job. A true Thatcherite liberal. #freepress

    Can anyone tell me if this is true,I haven't seen nothing on this.
  • YouGov Westminster VI poll

    Lab 36, Con 31, UKIP 15, LD 9
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited April 2014
    Mail on Sunday front page - "Exclusive - Plebgate PC: I want £200k for MP's 'lies'

    When / where is this story going to end!

    I was out of the country when this story broke, so maybe I see this differently, but the whole thing seems completely bonkers.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch · 23 mins
    Terrific work by @sajidjavid to kill the #Leveson regulation within weeks of taking Culture job. A true Thatcherite liberal. #freepress

    Can anyone tell me if this is true,I haven't seen nothing on this.

    It seems to be more attitude than action.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/sajid-javids-first-move-has-been-to-defend-press-freedom/
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    YouGov Euros poll for the Sunday TImes

    UKIP 31

    Lab 28

    Con 19

    This will not only send shockwaves to the tories,you can't tell me that this will not make labour nervous,the next party of government can't win a major election - lol

    If the Tories get below 20% and a distant third then Labour will be cheering far more than sweating. A close second with the Tories well behind is possibly even better for them than winning given the panic and damage it would do to the Blues.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited April 2014
    YouGov Euros UNS

    UKIP 25 (+12)
    Lab 25 (+12)
    Con 12 (-14)
    LD 3 (-8)
    Grn 2 (nc)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)

    * Estimate, no Green figure given Amended to reflect 8% for Greens.

    UKIP first or joint first in seats in every English region, bar London and the North East...
  • Greens on 8% in that Euros poll.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Ukip draining support from other parties, latest poll shows

    Observer/Opinium findings show Labour dropping back two points while Ukip remains unchanged since a fortnight ago

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/26/ukip-drains-support-other-parties-opinium-poll?CMP=twt_fd
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014

    Greens on 8% in that Euros poll.

    Whoa!

    'LD: no seats' back on the menu.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Greens on 8% in that Euros poll.

    Whoa!

    'LD: no seats' back on the menu.
    Unlikely.

    2-4 is most likely...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Sunday Times say

    UKIP could profit from further Tory troubles this week because the disgraced MP Patrick Mercer is set to quit and force a by-election over a cash for questions scandal.

    The Commons standards committee will meet on Tuesday to ban him from parliament for six months. The MP for Newark, a winnable seat for UKIP, has told friends that if he is suspended for more than a month he will have to stand down.

    The tories won't want a by-election. I suspect Mr Cameron would offer him whatever gift within HMG patronage he wanted.
    Labour held the seat in 1997 when Saint Tony was "winning here"

    Conservative Patrick Mercer 27,590 53.9 +3.4
    Labour Ian Campbell 11,438 22.3 −6.0
    Liberal Democrat Pauline Jenkins 10,246 20.0 +1.6

    UKIP Rev Major Tom Irvine 1,954 3.8 +1.0

    Electoral Calculus Prediction: Reckons a comfortable Conservative hold.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    CON 49.43%
    LAB 30.48%
    LIB 4.49%
    UKIP 14.33%
    OTH 1.28%

    I'd have thought UKIP would do better than that though.

    At any rate Lib Dems nailed on to lose deposit I'd have thought.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Ukip draining support from other parties, latest poll shows

    Observer/Opinium findings show Labour dropping back two points while Ukip remains unchanged since a fortnight ago

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/26/ukip-drains-support-other-parties-opinium-poll?CMP=twt_fd

    So UKIP's vote share doesn't change and this shows them draining support from others? God bless 'professional political commentators'...
  • Other YouGov poll findings

    How would you vote in a EU membership referendum, stay 40%, Leave 37%, DK 18%, Wouldn't vote 5%

    How would you vote if David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with the EU. Stay 50%, Leave 26%, DK 19%, Wouldn't vote 5%

    Should Cameron seek to the end the right of Non-British EU citizens to live and work in the EU. Yes 45%, No 35%, Not sure 20%

    Are the UKIP posters racist, Yes 25%, No 66%

    Is Nigel Farage racist, Yes 27%, No 50%

    Is Nigel Farage hypocritical to his German wife as his secretary, Yes 44%, No 40%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The question is would UKIP do even better with Paul Nuttall as leader?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    NEW THREAD
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RodCrosby said:

    Greens on 8% in that Euros poll.

    Whoa!

    'LD: no seats' back on the menu.
    Unlikely.

    2-4 is most likely...
    If the Greens are 8% nationally then they must be significantly above that in the south-east.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Quincel said:

    Ukip draining support from other parties, latest poll shows

    Observer/Opinium findings show Labour dropping back two points while Ukip remains unchanged since a fortnight ago

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/26/ukip-drains-support-other-parties-opinium-poll?CMP=twt_fd

    So UKIP's vote share doesn't change and this shows them draining support from others? God bless 'professional political commentators'...
    Well ukip are the star party,every no story equals a good story ;-)

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Greens on 8% in that Euros poll.

    Whoa!

    'LD: no seats' back on the menu.
    Unlikely.

    2-4 is most likely...
    If the Greens are 8% nationally then they must be significantly above that in the south-east.
    I did say UNS. Greens down just 0.1% nationally on 2009, according to that poll..
This discussion has been closed.