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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,101
    rkrkrk said:

    Strong header but I suspect the re-rat is possible.
    Would strengthen Kemi's position to have at least some of them back.

    Tails between legs?
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,249

    Taz said:

    Dan Neidle confirms what I have suspected, Gary Stevenson is full of crap.

    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2075206427476459826

    The lobby group Patriotic Millionaires couldn’t have picked a poorer advocate for their lobbying than this clown with his Barrow Boy persona

    He even lost The Guardian.
    Yes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2026/jul/08/how-to-get-filthy-rich-with-gary-stevenson-review-channel-4

    The Telegraph was equally savage about the lack of intellectual curiosity by him among other things however I’d expect the Guardian to have been friendlier.

    He’s a favourite ‘economist’ of Zack Polanski.

    We’ve noticed the slide of Reform but The Greens have also slumped too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,960

    rkrkrk said:

    Strong header but I suspect the re-rat is possible.
    Would strengthen Kemi's position to have at least some of them back.

    Tails between legs?
    Zahawi is out of Parliament.

    Braverman is so incompetent even Truss fired her.

    Jenrick is chiefly famous for painting over Mickey Mouse and basically achieved fuck all as either a minister or shadow minister. Moreover he's a compulsive plotter with an ego the size of Amanda Spielman's.

    Why would taking any of them back strengthen her?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,768
    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    From the header: Spare a thought for Robert Jenrick. Or Suella Braverman. Or maybe Tim Montgomerie. Or, perhaps most of all, the cerebral Danny Kruger.

    Indeed. I mentioned earlier the silence of Kruger, who continues not to bark on X.

    Kruger has however apparently said this:

    Kruger claimed “the government and its allies in the media and the other political parties” were working to stack the system against Farage’s party by cancelling elections and changing the rules to stop it from winning power.

    “Nigel has decided, I think rightly, that that’s not acceptable, and what needs to happen now is that his voters — the people who should ultimately decide whether he has a place in politics — should have the chance to send a clear signal that they still believe in him,” added Kruger.



    https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-nigel-farage-populist-backlash/

    I think Kruger is the type to go all in when he takes a position, and hence be just as willing to use the same lines as others.

    It still makes no sense to suggest backing from the public before its comfirmed you did something wrong absolves you somehow, people support others from attack but can change their mind as facts emerge.

    I think he'd win a recall, and that actually would mean something.
    Yes in part. Notice what Kruger does not say. He does not say that somehow a by election will vindicate Farage over the £5 million etc. he doesn't mention it at all. It's a non barking dog. He can't truthfully say anything so he says nothing. He points only to arguably real things - the cancelling of elections and rule changing (perhaps he points at the possibility of changing from FPTP??)

    In other words Kruger is desperate to remain honourable and truthful, which is commendable. whether it is in the longer run possible must be very doubtful.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,382
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Strong header but I suspect the re-rat is possible.
    Would strengthen Kemi's position to have at least some of them back.

    Tails between legs?
    Zahawi is out of Parliament.

    Braverman is so incompetent even Truss fired her.

    Jenrick is chiefly famous for painting over Mickey Mouse and basically achieved fuck all as either a minister or shadow minister. Moreover he's a compulsive plotter with an ego the size of Amanda Spielman's.

    Why would taking any of them back strengthen her?
    Badenoch's USP is rather a fulsome Reform agenda. Why not get the band back together?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,523
    DoctorG said:

    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

    Yes

    Will FIFA let them - debatable
    It's the other way around - all the match officials today are Argentinians - who would Argentina rather face in the final?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,917
    edited 4:43PM

    Very good header. Wouldn't be surprised to see most of these out of parliament at the next election, no way back.

    They can look at the careers of Reckless and Carswell as a blueprint for their future.

    Does beg the question about the hundreds of councillors, perhaps more conciliatory with them, if needed.

    It's possible.

    As PB's Reform UK Councillor Defenestration Correspondent, there could be a lorra-lorra Independent Councillors after the dust has settled, and another lot who return to the Cons.

    There could also be some more Councils controlled or lead by Independent Groups or Parties - we already have around a dozen plus usuals such as the City or the Scillies, plus some other significant groups such as Boston or Great Yarmouth. Ashfield Independents still have 31 seats from 35 here, despite one of their leaders being an established crook, and the other one due before the Crown Court (has taken several yeas to get him there FFS just due to "process").

    And there are other places where there has been long term local parties - Mansfield had iirc 4 terms of a Mansfield Independent Forum Mayor in a row.

    If the Boston Bypass Independents could win a controlling majority in 2010, anything could happen. Two of the originals are still there 2-0 years later under different brands.

    I note that Restore Britain are up to 32 Councillors, which is not very many, but his formation has 10 more in Great Yarmouth First. I can see that working elsewhere depending how he handles himself. The comparator for Restore Britain are perhaps the BNP, who peaked at 55 Councillors, with the shiny salesman suit swapped for something from the Archers. Though Rupes is 68 and it feels as much a one man vehicle as Reform to me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,218
    Taz said:

    DoctorG said:

    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

    Yes

    Will FIFA let them - debatable
    FIFA are getting lots of money and love from outside Europe. The up and coming parts of the world especially.
    I’m not sure this evening is one where I’d like a job as a Gendarme in Paris
    Hope they don’t start channeling Maurice Papon…
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,554
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Dan Neidle confirms what I have suspected, Gary Stevenson is full of crap.

    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2075206427476459826

    The lobby group Patriotic Millionaires couldn’t have picked a poorer advocate for their lobbying than this clown with his Barrow Boy persona

    He even lost The Guardian.
    Yes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2026/jul/08/how-to-get-filthy-rich-with-gary-stevenson-review-channel-4

    The Telegraph was equally savage about the lack of intellectual curiosity by him among other things however I’d expect the Guardian to have been friendlier.

    He’s a favourite ‘economist’ of Zack Polanski.

    We’ve noticed the slide of Reform but The Greens have also slumped too.
    Find Out Now have Greens at 16? And could be reason they place Tories ahead of Labour. As a rule of my thumb, I have Labour breaking 4 to Green for every one to Reform. Whilst each incremental step back for Reform has to be incremental rise for Tories, if not in next poll then, some poll soon.

    Sorry, is unleashing all my pent up psephology boring you?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,101
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    From the header: Spare a thought for Robert Jenrick. Or Suella Braverman. Or maybe Tim Montgomerie. Or, perhaps most of all, the cerebral Danny Kruger.

    Indeed. I mentioned earlier the silence of Kruger, who continues not to bark on X.

    Kruger has however apparently said this:

    Kruger claimed “the government and its allies in the media and the other political parties” were working to stack the system against Farage’s party by cancelling elections and changing the rules to stop it from winning power.

    “Nigel has decided, I think rightly, that that’s not acceptable, and what needs to happen now is that his voters — the people who should ultimately decide whether he has a place in politics — should have the chance to send a clear signal that they still believe in him,” added Kruger.



    https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-nigel-farage-populist-backlash/

    I think Kruger is the type to go all in when he takes a position, and hence be just as willing to use the same lines as others.

    It still makes no sense to suggest backing from the public before its comfirmed you did something wrong absolves you somehow, people support others from attack but can change their mind as facts emerge.

    I think he'd win a recall, and that actually would mean something.
    Yes in part. Notice what Kruger does not say. He does not say that somehow a by election will vindicate Farage over the £5 million etc. he doesn't mention it at all. It's a non barking dog. He can't truthfully say anything so he says nothing. He points only to arguably real things - the cancelling of elections and rule changing (perhaps he points at the possibility of changing from FPTP??)

    In other words Kruger is desperate to remain honourable and truthful, which is commendable. whether it is in the longer run possible must be very doubtful.

    Of all of them surely he has the most doubts now as to what he has done?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,101
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    We may be about to find out. Farage may just walk away. Does he really want two or three more years at the frontline like this and then possibly actually having to be PM and all the work involved (and no outside earnings etc)?
    This stunt shows that he does want it imo. He genuinely wants to be PM. Otherwise he'd have gone with "this is intolerable, I've had enough, bye." It was a chance to do that.

    Nice header btw.
    Thanks.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,174

    That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?

    PolliticsUK
    @PolliticsUK
    ·
    2h
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 23% (-2]
    🌳 CON: 20% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-3)
    🟢 GRN: 16% (=)
    🔶 LDEM: 13% (+3)

    From
    @FindoutnowUK

    From 8th July
    Changes with 1st July

    If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.

    it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.

    Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
    No, there is definite movement afoot. Remember PB knowledge it takes about 3 weeks for big political news to show in polls?

    Three weeks of electorate looking at Burnham coming, this is their answer.
    Don't be silly.

    See here in 2007.

    Labour didn't get consistent leads until Gordon Brown became leader/PM.

    I would cite more examples but I am going out.

    Only partisan hacks are over analysing the polls now.



    To be fair to you, you say I’m over analysing these recent good polls for Badenoch’s Conservatives? I have been monitoring the wiki poll of poll chart all year, being one of the PBs leading psephologists, and what actually happened, and clearly there for everyone to see, the Tory upsplurge earlier this year when Reform started dropping, but although Reform continued to fall, Tories next started broadly flatlining for months. We don’t need an explanation for that flatlining now, because this further splurge in Conservative support has been overdue. I’m not over analysing it, I’ve known for weeks this was going to happen, because Reform are still sinking, and most their polling support they had stolen from the Conservatives.

    I would also disagree with a suggestion that Manchester Mafia coup and ousting of Starmer’s government and his ministers and their policy hasn’t sunk in with voters yet. It’s had an awful lot of media coverage for a month. Voters appreciate it as a major change.

    Why not, for a great many voters, the Reeves Starmer, Phillipson Mrs Balls Government of Slow but Consistent Managerialism of Statist Starmer’s Utterly Boring Government is preferable to the AOR Key Shifts from Fifth Beatles Chamber Pop of the Granada Mafia band.

    And why wouldn’t that be a thing for a great many voters, who trusted a man with majority of 172 just two years ago? We are in mid term and a government is getting bashed 24/7 from all directions and bad election results and polling, but that’s merely normal isn’t it? Perhaps we all swallowed our own spin just how abysmal the Starmer government was, for not making quicker progress in the last two years? A lot of vox pop has picked up “they only had two years, is this fair?”

    The key ingredient here is Burnham himself. How does anyone know he’s going to be better? They don’t. No one can possibly know that. And helpful reminders of the Brown Government only supports my argument.
    More on Burnham as Starmer with a Mancunian accent

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/labour-must-stop-abusing-private-members-bills-in-parliament-b1289381.html
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,554

    DoctorG said:

    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

    Yes

    Will FIFA let them - debatable
    It's the other way around - all the match officials today are Argentinians - who would Argentina rather face in the final?
    I think the VAR team spoke the same language as the Mexicans, if not even near neighbours too, and some of their referrals against England contrary to spirit of trusting the on field Ref as much as possible and letting it flow.

    What shall we call this bias where you already know what VAR decided before they share it - Eurovision Voting Syndrome?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 9,186
    Good to finally see a bit of consistency from FIFA after the Balogun card suspension, they have rescinded Quansah’s red card given him a two match ban.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,768

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    From the header: Spare a thought for Robert Jenrick. Or Suella Braverman. Or maybe Tim Montgomerie. Or, perhaps most of all, the cerebral Danny Kruger.

    Indeed. I mentioned earlier the silence of Kruger, who continues not to bark on X.

    Kruger has however apparently said this:

    Kruger claimed “the government and its allies in the media and the other political parties” were working to stack the system against Farage’s party by cancelling elections and changing the rules to stop it from winning power.

    “Nigel has decided, I think rightly, that that’s not acceptable, and what needs to happen now is that his voters — the people who should ultimately decide whether he has a place in politics — should have the chance to send a clear signal that they still believe in him,” added Kruger.



    https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-nigel-farage-populist-backlash/

    I think Kruger is the type to go all in when he takes a position, and hence be just as willing to use the same lines as others.

    It still makes no sense to suggest backing from the public before its comfirmed you did something wrong absolves you somehow, people support others from attack but can change their mind as facts emerge.

    I think he'd win a recall, and that actually would mean something.
    Yes in part. Notice what Kruger does not say. He does not say that somehow a by election will vindicate Farage over the £5 million etc. he doesn't mention it at all. It's a non barking dog. He can't truthfully say anything so he says nothing. He points only to arguably real things - the cancelling of elections and rule changing (perhaps he points at the possibility of changing from FPTP??)

    In other words Kruger is desperate to remain honourable and truthful, which is commendable. whether it is in the longer run possible must be very doubtful.

    Of all of them surely he has the most doubts now as to what he has done?

    Yes. Kruger must both see Farage and cronies for what they are, must comprehend the disconnect between the plutocrats intentions and the best interests of ordinary people, the people of Clacton, and Reform voters generally. He must realise that Farage is an amoral stoat and a chancer.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,554
    viewcode said:

    That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?

    PolliticsUK
    @PolliticsUK
    ·
    2h
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 23% (-2]
    🌳 CON: 20% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-3)
    🟢 GRN: 16% (=)
    🔶 LDEM: 13% (+3)

    From
    @FindoutnowUK

    From 8th July
    Changes with 1st July

    If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.

    it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.

    Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
    No, there is definite movement afoot. Remember PB knowledge it takes about 3 weeks for big political news to show in polls?

    Three weeks of electorate looking at Burnham coming, this is their answer.
    Don't be silly.

    See here in 2007.

    Labour didn't get consistent leads until Gordon Brown became leader/PM.

    I would cite more examples but I am going out.

    Only partisan hacks are over analysing the polls now.



    To be fair to you, you say I’m over analysing these recent good polls for Badenoch’s Conservatives? I have been monitoring the wiki poll of poll chart all year, being one of the PBs leading psephologists, and what actually happened, and clearly there for everyone to see, the Tory upsplurge earlier this year when Reform started dropping, but although Reform continued to fall, Tories next started broadly flatlining for months. We don’t need an explanation for that flatlining now, because this further splurge in Conservative support has been overdue. I’m not over analysing it, I’ve known for weeks this was going to happen, because Reform are still sinking, and most their polling support they had stolen from the Conservatives.

    I would also disagree with a suggestion that Manchester Mafia coup and ousting of Starmer’s government and his ministers and their policy hasn’t sunk in with voters yet. It’s had an awful lot of media coverage for a month. Voters appreciate it as a major change.

    Why not, for a great many voters, the Reeves Starmer, Phillipson Mrs Balls Government of Slow but Consistent Managerialism of Statist Starmer’s Utterly Boring Government is preferable to the AOR Key Shifts from Fifth Beatles Chamber Pop of the Granada Mafia band.

    And why wouldn’t that be a thing for a great many voters, who trusted a man with majority of 172 just two years ago? We are in mid term and a government is getting bashed 24/7 from all directions and bad election results and polling, but that’s merely normal isn’t it? Perhaps we all swallowed our own spin just how abysmal the Starmer government was, for not making quicker progress in the last two years? A lot of vox pop has picked up “they only had two years, is this fair?”

    The key ingredient here is Burnham himself. How does anyone know he’s going to be better? They don’t. No one can possibly know that. And helpful reminders of the Brown Government only supports my argument.
    More on Burnham as Starmer with a Mancunian accent

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/labour-must-stop-abusing-private-members-bills-in-parliament-b1289381.html
    Oh nice link… CHAGOS!

    Or as Anabob would put it -

    C
    H
    A
    G
    O
    S.

    Let me guess, TWOTN has been taken to a security briefing at the Foreign Office,
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,392
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    From the header: Spare a thought for Robert Jenrick. Or Suella Braverman. Or maybe Tim Montgomerie. Or, perhaps most of all, the cerebral Danny Kruger.

    Indeed. I mentioned earlier the silence of Kruger, who continues not to bark on X.

    Kruger has however apparently said this:

    Kruger claimed “the government and its allies in the media and the other political parties” were working to stack the system against Farage’s party by cancelling elections and changing the rules to stop it from winning power.

    “Nigel has decided, I think rightly, that that’s not acceptable, and what needs to happen now is that his voters — the people who should ultimately decide whether he has a place in politics — should have the chance to send a clear signal that they still believe in him,” added Kruger.



    https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-nigel-farage-populist-backlash/

    I think Kruger is the type to go all in when he takes a position, and hence be just as willing to use the same lines as others.

    It still makes no sense to suggest backing from the public before its comfirmed you did something wrong absolves you somehow, people support others from attack but can change their mind as facts emerge.

    I think he'd win a recall, and that actually would mean something.
    Yes in part. Notice what Kruger does not say. He does not say that somehow a by election will vindicate Farage over the £5 million etc. he doesn't mention it at all. It's a non barking dog. He can't truthfully say anything so he says nothing. He points only to arguably real things - the cancelling of elections and rule changing (perhaps he points at the possibility of changing from FPTP??)

    In other words Kruger is desperate to remain honourable and truthful, which is commendable. whether it is in the longer run possible must be very doubtful.

    Of all of them surely he has the most doubts now as to what he has done?

    Yes. Kruger must both see Farage and cronies for what they are, must comprehend the disconnect between the plutocrats intentions and the best interests of ordinary people, the people of Clacton, and Reform voters generally. He must realise that Farage is an amoral stoat and a chancer.
    I'm a big 'benefit of the doubt' man, still I am surprised he wouldn't have reached that conclusion before now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,249

    Burnham apologises for Labours initial response to Gaza and is promising a shift in approach

    Good

    Labour should have condemned Israel’s disproportionate response when it needed it.

    “ EXCL: Andy Burnham has apologised for Labour’s initial response to Israel’s military action in Gaza, saying that the party “didn’t get it right” and needs to “do better” under his leadership, as he signals a significant shift in the UK’s approach to the Middle East.

    The PM-in-waiting told me he would put more pressure on the Israeli government, including through further sanctions on individuals and entities, but also potentially by banning trade in goods with illegal settlements.

    As well as pushing for substantive change on the ground, Burnham’s intervention starts to address concerns among voters on Labour’s progressive flank, many of whom have abandoned the party over its position on Israel and Palestine.

    “I know many people feel that at the start of Israel’s military action in Gaza my party didn’t get it right and I am sorry about that. The response has too often not been good enough. We need to do better,” he said.

    “We’ve got to do more to put pressure on the Israeli government… Yes, we have taken some important steps… But let’s be honest, the UK was too slow to call for a ceasefire. And we must now do more to strengthen our approach.””


    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/2075251982793641999?s=61
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,076
    On topic, they thought Farage was serious.

    It's really all about him.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,466
    Taz said:

    DoctorG said:

    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

    Yes

    Will FIFA let them - debatable
    FIFA are getting lots of money and love from outside Europe. The up and coming parts of the world especially.
    I’m not sure this evening is one where I’d like a job as a Gendarme in Paris
    That would be the case regardless of the result - there were riots across Paris after the 2018 final..
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,358
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Dan Neidle confirms what I have suspected, Gary Stevenson is full of crap.

    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2075206427476459826

    The lobby group Patriotic Millionaires couldn’t have picked a poorer advocate for their lobbying than this clown with his Barrow Boy persona

    He even lost The Guardian.
    Yes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2026/jul/08/how-to-get-filthy-rich-with-gary-stevenson-review-channel-4

    The Telegraph was equally savage about the lack of intellectual curiosity by him among other things however I’d expect the Guardian to have been friendlier.

    He’s a favourite ‘economist’ of Zack Polanski.

    We’ve noticed the slide of Reform but The Greens have also slumped too.
    Though if you base your TV choices on Lucy Mangan reviews you'd stop watching TV.
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