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Unreformed defectors – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,241
edited 2:13PM in General
Unreformed defectors – politicalbetting.com

Spare a thought for Robert Jenrick. Or Suella Braverman. Or maybe Tim Montgomerie. Or, perhaps most of all, the cerebral Danny Kruger. Thatcher had the “Mad Monk”; Farage has Kruger tapping away at preparing for government into the wee hours.

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 34,465
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,655
    How sad, never mind.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583
    eek said:
    Don't accept it Count.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583
    Dan Neidle confirms what I have suspected, Gary Stevenson is full of crap.

    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2075206427476459826
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813
    edited 2:19PM
    Forget the MPs who might be rethinking.

    Of far more interest are the legions of former Tory voters.

    "What have we done?" Well, nothing that can't be remedied with an X in a box....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,775
    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813
    eek said:
    Got a lot of time for Dale. The real Deal.

    He was at the Battle of the Beanfield....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,217

    eek said:
    Don't accept it Count.

    Oddball: Ah, Bellamy, for cryin' out loud. That's the the stinking, most awful, stupid joke and you're always pullin' that stinking awful stupid joke. You don't want in this thing, you don't get in this thing. I cut you out of everything. I don't need you. Sixty feet of bridge 5 million in crypto I can get almost anywhere. Schmuck!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813

    On topic, I'd rather have Jeremy Corbyn join the Tory Party than have Robert Jenrick rejoin.

    There's not enough 'fuck offs' in the world when it comes to Bobby J.

    Perhaps when bitcoin is mined out, we can turn to mining "fuck offs". And use them on Jenrick.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813
    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    Well it was a mistake alright.

    Innocent? Hmmmm....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813
    Farage did play one blinder though - in de-c*ntifying the Conservative Party.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,864

    Forget the MPs who might be rethinking.

    Of far more interest are the legions of former Tory voters.

    "What have we done?" Well, nothing that can't be remedied with an X in a box....

    The great thing about the private ballot box is that it requires no public repentance for a previous choice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583
    Two areas Farage really is vulnerable is being so close to Trump and his pro Russia/anti Ukraine views.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,667
    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    What do you think the plonker intended by it, then ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,667

    Farage did play one blinder though - in de-c*ntifying the Conservative Party.

    "The Count versus The C***s".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,667
    Erdogan having trouble with the Secret Santa concept ?

    Belgian PM Bart De Wever unknowingly brought home a loaded, personalized revolver gifted by Turkish President Erdogan at the NATO summit.

    The gift wasn't opened until the delegation landed in Belgium, where they discovered the gun and ammunition.

    The weapon was immediately handed over to airport police, and its fate is still undecided.

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/2075152147365200089
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,099

    Two areas Farage really is vulnerable is being so close to Trump and his pro Russia/anti Ukraine views.

    Absolutely but we can now add in taking massive "gifts". So he has three weak areas.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813
    Nigelb said:

    Farage did play one blinder though - in de-c*ntifying the Conservative Party.

    "The Count versus The C***s".
    Well one at least....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583
    Fraudster Cottrell was introduced as Farage’s chief of staff, says ex-Reform candidate

    Exclusive: Questions grow over close ally’s role in 2024 election in which he held no official position


    George Cottrell was routinely introduced as Nigel Farage’s chief of staff before the 2024 election despite denials that he had any official role, according to a Reform UK candidate who stood aside for the party leader.

    Others who have been closely involved in the party have also claimed Cottrell arranged the Land Rovers that ferried Reform’s newly elected MPs to parliament, and that he covered the cost of a fundraising lunch with potential donors before the national vote.

    Questions about the role of Cottrell – who is a convicted fraudster – and the extent to which he has provided undeclared support for Farage have been building over the past week as the Reform leader comes under unprecedented pressure....

    ...Tony Mack, who was initially Reform’s candidate for the Essex constituency of Clacton in 2024, told the Guardian that Cottrell was introduced as Farage’s chief of staff during meetings.

    “I remember thinking that it was an odd term to use for someone who was unelected at that point,” said Mack, a psychotherapist and charity worker.

    Mack has previously alleged that Farage went back on a deal that would have given him a role in the party in return for stepping aside to allow the leader to run in Clacton.

    Mack recalled Cottrell as being “polite and cordial” and echoed long-repeated claims that the younger man sometimes referred to Farage, who is no relation, as “daddy”.

    A Reform spokesperson said: “George Cottrell has no official role in Reform UK, nor has he previously held any official role. He has never been a party employee, he is an unpaid volunteer like many thousands of party members.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/fraudster-cottrell-was-introduced-as-farage-chief-of-staff-says-ex-reform-candidate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,971
    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583

    Two areas Farage really is vulnerable is being so close to Trump and his pro Russia/anti Ukraine views.

    Absolutely but we can now add in taking massive "gifts". So he has three weak areas.
    I am hearing the focus groups really don't like it, but even more they don't like his response to it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,551

    That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?

    PolliticsUK
    @PolliticsUK
    ·
    2h
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 23% (-2]
    🌳 CON: 20% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-3)
    🟢 GRN: 16% (=)
    🔶 LDEM: 13% (+3)

    From
    @FindoutnowUK

    From 8th July
    Changes with 1st July

    If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.

    it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.

    Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
    No, there is definite movement afoot. Remember PB knowledge it takes about 3 weeks for big political news to show in polls?

    Three weeks of electorate looking at Burnham coming, this is their answer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,381
    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    Don't be silly. Lowe is of a similar age to me and what Thomas Hamilton did to those children haunts me to this day. My Secretary had been listening to the radio whilst working and came in to tell me what she had heard. She was visibly shaken having two children of a similar age to the victims.

    Only a **** would rue the loss of a target practice pistol in the light of dead children. But all these mad right wing ****s value their liberty to do what they want over the lives of children. These right wing grifters really are ****s.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,391
    edited 2:39PM

    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    Look where he said it, on a US podcast, courting US money and clicks with a pro-gun message. A desperate attempt to keep his sponsor, the loathsome ketamine fuelled racist Musk, on board. Whether deliberate or simply careless it speaks to a callousness that will be utterly shocking for anyone who remembers that day as one of the darkest in our history. Lowe should never be forgiven for this. He has showed us who he is.
    He wanted to show where his empathy lies. Not with the victims of gun massacres like Dunblane (and countless in the US) but with people like his "bless him he's dead now" father who used to "shoot pistols for Oxford University" and because of pesky Dunblane had his pistols "taken away from him".

    These guys are entitled exploitative ghouls.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583

    That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?

    PolliticsUK
    @PolliticsUK
    ·
    2h
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 23% (-2]
    🌳 CON: 20% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-3)
    🟢 GRN: 16% (=)
    🔶 LDEM: 13% (+3)

    From
    @FindoutnowUK

    From 8th July
    Changes with 1st July

    If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.

    it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.

    Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
    No, there is definite movement afoot. Remember PB knowledge it takes about 3 weeks for big political news to show in polls?

    Three weeks of electorate looking at Burnham coming, this is their answer.
    Don't be silly.

    See here in 2007.

    Labour didn't get consistent leads until Gordon Brown became leader/PM.

    I would cite more examples but I am going out.

    Only partisan hacks are over analysing the polls now.



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,667
    In US politics, this is being underreported, I think ?
    The Democrats have to get a new name on the ballot by next week; Platner might still blow up the whole process.

    Platner is holding the seat hostage. He hasn't withdrawn yet. People reporting that he has are incredibly sloppy.
    https://x.com/davetroy/status/2075212575629848694

    If they don't, Collins will almost certainly be reelected.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,780
    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    I think he made the mistake that many have made in the internet era, of not realising that the internet is global, and it's harder to say one thing to one audience (in this case, alt-right Americans) and another to another audience (such as British people who remember Dunblane).

    He exaggerated his argument by minimising Dunblane for the benefit of the American audience, forgetting that British people would be listening too.

    I forget which 19th century American President it was who was notorious for giving contradictory stump speeches to different audiences, but it was easier to get away with back then, when media was often local rather than national, let alone international.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,217
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    Look where he said it, on a US podcast, courting US money and clicks with a pro-gun message. A desperate attempt to keep his sponsor, the loathsome ketamine fuelled racist Musk, on board. Whether deliberate or simply careless it speaks to a callousness that will be utterly shocking for anyone who remembers that day as one of the darkest in our history. Lowe should never be forgiven for this. He has showed us who he is.
    He wanted to show where his empathy lies. Not with the victims of gun massacres like Dunblane (and countless in the US) but with people like his "bless him he's dead now" father who used to "shoot pistols for Oxford University" and because of pesky Dunblane had his pistols "taken away from him".

    These guys are entitled exploitative ghouls.
    It's another case of taking on the views and positions of "those you swim with"

    In this case hard right Americans - this is the classic minimisation rhetoric you see after American school shootings from such people.

    See anti-semitism picked up from hanging around with groups that are anti-semitic etc.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,780

    Two areas Farage really is vulnerable is being so close to Trump and his pro Russia/anti Ukraine views.

    I'd like that to be true, but it would seem that his greatest vulnerability is simple greed, and lying about it. Which is a +1 for the British electorate if it comes to pass, compared to American voters being more tolerant of the same, but I don't think the Trump/Putin love is nearly as damaging as I would like it to be.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,217

    That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?

    PolliticsUK
    @PolliticsUK
    ·
    2h
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 23% (-2]
    🌳 CON: 20% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-3)
    🟢 GRN: 16% (=)
    🔶 LDEM: 13% (+3)

    From
    @FindoutnowUK

    From 8th July
    Changes with 1st July

    If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.

    it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.

    Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
    No, there is definite movement afoot. Remember PB knowledge it takes about 3 weeks for big political news to show in polls?

    Three weeks of electorate looking at Burnham coming, this is their answer.
    Don't be silly.

    See here in 2007.

    Labour didn't get consistent leads until Gordon Brown became leader/PM.

    I would cite more examples but I am going out.

    Only partisan hacks are over analysing the polls now.



    I think Burham (and Labour) got a small bump when he was in the new, and getting elected. Since then he has dropped back.

    I would expect another bump/bounce when he actually gets to be PM and is in the news non-stop. The question is what after that. The first few policy changes/announcements will be critical.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,749
    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,775
    edited 3:04PM
    The Tories must be pleased to have had 4 opinion polls in a row showing them in second place, if you include Freshwater which Wikipedia doesn't.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,381
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    So that discounts Bobby J. and Suella then.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583

    Two areas Farage really is vulnerable is being so close to Trump and his pro Russia/anti Ukraine views.

    I'd like that to be true, but it would seem that his greatest vulnerability is simple greed, and lying about it. Which is a +1 for the British electorate if it comes to pass, compared to American voters being more tolerant of the same, but I don't think the Trump/Putin love is nearly as damaging as I would like it to be.
    Remember during the last election campaign how Farage had to reverse his position on Ukraine.

    https://www.euractiv.com/news/support-for-farages-reform-uk-party-drops-after-ukraine-comments/
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,263

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    So that discounts Bobby J. and Suella then.
    And Tice, Anderson and Yusuf

    Farage usually knows where the line of acceptable public behaviour is. He mocks it and leans over it, but he knows it's there.

    His lieutenants generally aren't as smart.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,381

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    So that discounts Bobby J. and Suella then.
    And Tice, Anderson and Yusuf

    Farage usually knows where the line of acceptable public behaviour is. He mocks it and leans over it, but he knows it's there.

    His lieutenants generally aren't as smart.
    I am still dusting myself down after Jenrick called for Burnham to seek a mandate for a change and call an election. Just like Jenrick did when he left the Tories. Wait, have I got that right?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    Farage brings out those who don't normally vote.

    Tice? He is a rather less, er, enticing prospect....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,919

    Fraudster Cottrell was introduced as Farage’s chief of staff, says ex-Reform candidate

    Exclusive: Questions grow over close ally’s role in 2024 election in which he held no official position


    George Cottrell was routinely introduced as Nigel Farage’s chief of staff before the 2024 election despite denials that he had any official role, according to a Reform UK candidate who stood aside for the party leader.

    Others who have been closely involved in the party have also claimed Cottrell arranged the Land Rovers that ferried Reform’s newly elected MPs to parliament, and that he covered the cost of a fundraising lunch with potential donors before the national vote.

    Questions about the role of Cottrell – who is a convicted fraudster – and the extent to which he has provided undeclared support for Farage have been building over the past week as the Reform leader comes under unprecedented pressure....

    ...Tony Mack, who was initially Reform’s candidate for the Essex constituency of Clacton in 2024, told the Guardian that Cottrell was introduced as Farage’s chief of staff during meetings.

    “I remember thinking that it was an odd term to use for someone who was unelected at that point,” said Mack, a psychotherapist and charity worker.

    Mack has previously alleged that Farage went back on a deal that would have given him a role in the party in return for stepping aside to allow the leader to run in Clacton.

    Mack recalled Cottrell as being “polite and cordial” and echoed long-repeated claims that the younger man sometimes referred to Farage, who is no relation, as “daddy”.

    A Reform spokesperson said: “George Cottrell has no official role in Reform UK, nor has he previously held any official role. He has never been a party employee, he is an unpaid volunteer like many thousands of party members.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/fraudster-cottrell-was-introduced-as-farage-chief-of-staff-says-ex-reform-candidate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    You can have any number of chiefs of staff, but you can only have one daddy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,381
    edited 3:24PM

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    Farage brings out those who don't normally vote.

    Tice? He is a rather less, er, enticing prospect....
    Perhaps Farage is bored already. The cut and thrust of real Hitleresque Naziism from the Whitehouse must be a more interesting prospect than batting for those who swig from cans of Madri as they go about their business on their mobility scooters navigating manfully the pavements of Jaywick and Clacton.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813

    Fraudster Cottrell was introduced as Farage’s chief of staff, says ex-Reform candidate

    Exclusive: Questions grow over close ally’s role in 2024 election in which he held no official position


    George Cottrell was routinely introduced as Nigel Farage’s chief of staff before the 2024 election despite denials that he had any official role, according to a Reform UK candidate who stood aside for the party leader.

    Others who have been closely involved in the party have also claimed Cottrell arranged the Land Rovers that ferried Reform’s newly elected MPs to parliament, and that he covered the cost of a fundraising lunch with potential donors before the national vote.

    Questions about the role of Cottrell – who is a convicted fraudster – and the extent to which he has provided undeclared support for Farage have been building over the past week as the Reform leader comes under unprecedented pressure....

    ...Tony Mack, who was initially Reform’s candidate for the Essex constituency of Clacton in 2024, told the Guardian that Cottrell was introduced as Farage’s chief of staff during meetings.

    “I remember thinking that it was an odd term to use for someone who was unelected at that point,” said Mack, a psychotherapist and charity worker.

    Mack has previously alleged that Farage went back on a deal that would have given him a role in the party in return for stepping aside to allow the leader to run in Clacton.

    Mack recalled Cottrell as being “polite and cordial” and echoed long-repeated claims that the younger man sometimes referred to Farage, who is no relation, as “daddy”.

    A Reform spokesperson said: “George Cottrell has no official role in Reform UK, nor has he previously held any official role. He has never been a party employee, he is an unpaid volunteer like many thousands of party members.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/fraudster-cottrell-was-introduced-as-farage-chief-of-staff-says-ex-reform-candidate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Who's the Daddy?

    "You are, Nigel...."

    Sick bag supplies hit critical shortages....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,775
    Elections coming up

    Norfolk police and crime commissioner by-election: 16th July
    Manchester mayoralty by-election: 30th July
    Clacton by-election: probably 13th August
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,555

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    Farage brings out those who don't normally vote.

    Tice? He is a rather less, er, enticing prospect....
    Tice is, though, the perfect 1980s drama serial villain. A mixture of Charles Frere and pre-Gail Paul Robinson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,099
    Andy_JS said:

    Elections coming up

    Norfolk police and crime commissioner by-election: 16th July
    Manchester mayoralty by-election: 30th July
    Clacton by-election: probably 13th August

    I suspect turn-out wont be "brisk" at any of those.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,509
    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    I concur. Farage and Reform have taken some knocks, and I'd be delighted if this was the end of the party, but every party has set backs and it's not clear Farage's are fatal yet.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,655
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    Look where he said it, on a US podcast, courting US money and clicks with a pro-gun message. A desperate attempt to keep his sponsor, the loathsome ketamine fuelled racist Musk, on board. Whether deliberate or simply careless it speaks to a callousness that will be utterly shocking for anyone who remembers that day as one of the darkest in our history. Lowe should never be forgiven for this. He has showed us who he is.
    He wanted to show where his empathy lies. Not with the victims of gun massacres like Dunblane (and countless in the US) but with people like his "bless him he's dead now" father who used to "shoot pistols for Oxford University" and because of pesky Dunblane had his pistols "taken away from him".

    These guys are entitled exploitative ghouls.
    Yeah that's what struck me too. These people are so fucking repulsive, my skin crawls just thinking about them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,099

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    Farage brings out those who don't normally vote.

    Tice? He is a rather less, er, enticing prospect....
    Perhaps Farage is bored already. The cut and thrust of real Hitleresque Naziism from the Whitehouse must be a more interesting prospect than batting for those who swig from cans of Madri as they go about their business on their mobility scooters navigating manfully the pavements of Jaywick and Clacton.
    The argument stands up that populists Reform like parties are rising all over western world but they mainly do have a Farage-like figure. LePen, Trump etc.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,381

    Farage did play one blinder though - in de-c*ntifying the Conservative Party.

    I could still names names.

    Although we don't hear very much from Priti Patel these days do we?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,775
    edited 3:30PM

    Andy_JS said:

    Elections coming up

    Norfolk police and crime commissioner by-election: 16th July
    Manchester mayoralty by-election: 30th July
    Clacton by-election: probably 13th August

    I suspect turn-out wont be "brisk" at any of those.
    True. Maybe Farage's cunning plan is that momentum from the first two elections will help him get a big turnout in Clacton.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,551
    edited 3:34PM

    That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?

    PolliticsUK
    @PolliticsUK
    ·
    2h
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 23% (-2]
    🌳 CON: 20% (+1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-3)
    🟢 GRN: 16% (=)
    🔶 LDEM: 13% (+3)

    From
    @FindoutnowUK

    From 8th July
    Changes with 1st July

    If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.

    it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.

    Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
    No, there is definite movement afoot. Remember PB knowledge it takes about 3 weeks for big political news to show in polls?

    Three weeks of electorate looking at Burnham coming, this is their answer.
    Don't be silly.

    See here in 2007.

    Labour didn't get consistent leads until Gordon Brown became leader/PM.

    I would cite more examples but I am going out.

    Only partisan hacks are over analysing the polls now.



    To be fair to you, you say I’m over analysing these recent good polls for Badenoch’s Conservatives? I have been monitoring the wiki poll of poll chart all year, being one of the PBs leading psephologists, and what actually happened, and clearly there for everyone to see, the Tory upsplurge earlier this year when Reform started dropping, but although Reform continued to fall, Tories next started broadly flatlining for months. We don’t need an explanation for that flatlining now, because this further splurge in Conservative support has been overdue. I’m not over analysing it, I’ve known for weeks this was going to happen, because Reform are still sinking, and most their polling support they had stolen from the Conservatives.

    I would also disagree with a suggestion that Manchester Mafia coup and ousting of Starmer’s government and his ministers and their policy hasn’t sunk in with voters yet. It’s had an awful lot of media coverage for a month. Voters appreciate it as a major change.

    Why not, for a great many voters, the Reeves Starmer, Phillipson Mrs Balls Government of Slow but Consistent Managerialism of Statist Starmer’s Utterly Boring Government is preferable to the AOR Key Shifts from Fifth Beatles Chamber Pop of the Granada Mafia band.

    And why wouldn’t that be a thing for a great many voters, who trusted a man with majority of 172 just two years ago? We are in mid term and a government is getting bashed 24/7 from all directions and bad election results and polling, but that’s merely normal isn’t it? Perhaps we all swallowed our own spin just how abysmal the Starmer government was, for not making quicker progress in the last two years? A lot of vox pop has picked up “they only had two years, is this fair?”

    The key ingredient here is Burnham himself. How does anyone know he’s going to be better? They don’t. No one can possibly know that. And helpful reminders of the Brown Government only supports my argument.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 1,079

    Only a **** would rue the loss of a target practice pistol in the light of dead children.

    Without going into a gun control debate, I don't agree at all that having a different view on it makes someone a ****. Like almost every other political question it's a complex issue and we have countries with maximilist and minimlaist policies both making a success and utter hash out of it.

    Describing Dunblane as "just a murder" may well make one a **** but I don't see think it's a surprise to anyone that Mr Lowe is a ****.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,775
    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,775
    edited 3:35PM
    automatic double post again
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,099
    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    We may be about to find out. Farage may just walk away. Does he really want two or three more years at the frontline like this and then possibly actually having to be PM and all the work involved (and no outside earnings etc)?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,370
    edited 3:47PM
    No, this is the duplicate!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,370
    edited 3:45PM
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    This nails it. 'Living standards rising more slowly' is being perceived as 'living standards falling' by large chunks of the voting public across the West and they don't like it, so scapegoats (immigration, Europe, taxes etc.) are sought and quick 'fixes' lapped up.

    My question is: is it inevitable that living standards continue to rise more slowly in the developed world (because... ultimately, growth cannot continue indefinitely) or is this some sort of seismic adjustment as we move from the industrial age to the AI age?

    Also, is neoliberalism dead given it's failed to deliver anything but low growth for the past 20 years or so?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,404

    Fraudster Cottrell was introduced as Farage’s chief of staff, says ex-Reform candidate

    Exclusive: Questions grow over close ally’s role in 2024 election in which he held no official position


    George Cottrell was routinely introduced as Nigel Farage’s chief of staff before the 2024 election despite denials that he had any official role, according to a Reform UK candidate who stood aside for the party leader.

    Others who have been closely involved in the party have also claimed Cottrell arranged the Land Rovers that ferried Reform’s newly elected MPs to parliament, and that he covered the cost of a fundraising lunch with potential donors before the national vote.

    Questions about the role of Cottrell – who is a convicted fraudster – and the extent to which he has provided undeclared support for Farage have been building over the past week as the Reform leader comes under unprecedented pressure....

    ...Tony Mack, who was initially Reform’s candidate for the Essex constituency of Clacton in 2024, told the Guardian that Cottrell was introduced as Farage’s chief of staff during meetings.

    “I remember thinking that it was an odd term to use for someone who was unelected at that point,” said Mack, a psychotherapist and charity worker.

    Mack has previously alleged that Farage went back on a deal that would have given him a role in the party in return for stepping aside to allow the leader to run in Clacton.

    Mack recalled Cottrell as being “polite and cordial” and echoed long-repeated claims that the younger man sometimes referred to Farage, who is no relation, as “daddy”.

    A Reform spokesperson said: “George Cottrell has no official role in Reform UK, nor has he previously held any official role. He has never been a party employee, he is an unpaid volunteer like many thousands of party members.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/fraudster-cottrell-was-introduced-as-farage-chief-of-staff-says-ex-reform-candidate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Who's the Daddy?

    "You are, Nigel...."

    Sick bag supplies hit critical shortages....
    It is strange, though, that the "Daddy" wasn't the one providing the sugar in this relationship.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,391

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    Look where he said it, on a US podcast, courting US money and clicks with a pro-gun message. A desperate attempt to keep his sponsor, the loathsome ketamine fuelled racist Musk, on board. Whether deliberate or simply careless it speaks to a callousness that will be utterly shocking for anyone who remembers that day as one of the darkest in our history. Lowe should never be forgiven for this. He has showed us who he is.
    He wanted to show where his empathy lies. Not with the victims of gun massacres like Dunblane (and countless in the US) but with people like his "bless him he's dead now" father who used to "shoot pistols for Oxford University" and because of pesky Dunblane had his pistols "taken away from him".

    These guys are entitled exploitative ghouls.
    It's another case of taking on the views and positions of "those you swim with"

    In this case hard right Americans - this is the classic minimisation rhetoric you see after American school shootings from such people.

    See anti-semitism picked up from hanging around with groups that are anti-semitic etc.
    The financial/digital power of the American hard right is a huge threat to us. I hope it doesn't prevail here - but it won't be for lack of trying.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,248
    eek said:
    Ironic as he gave Labour a £5 million donation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,402

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    Farage brings out those who don't normally vote.

    Tice? He is a rather less, er, enticing prospect....
    I would have thought so too, but Tice was the leader of Reform until a month before the last GE, when he kissed Farage's ring and stood down after 3 years. Reform polled quite well under him.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,404
    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    I'm certain you said that about Corbyn when he misspoke about Salisbury, fair minded man that you are.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,370
    edited 3:48PM
    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,099
    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Pretty good idea there.

    But there's the ego of course.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,248

    Dan Neidle confirms what I have suspected, Gary Stevenson is full of crap.

    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2075206427476459826

    The lobby group Patriotic Millionaires couldn’t have picked a poorer advocate for their lobbying than this clown with his Barrow Boy persona

    He even lost The Guardian.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,099

    Great Threader @rottenborough. Really enjoyed it, partly due to schadenfreude of course but also because it's really crisply and wittily written.

    Nice one!

    Many thanks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,423
    I see Rupert Lowe is getting press for remarks on that red hot UK political issue - advocating for looser gun control.

    It's terminal America brain I think (he was talking to Joe Rogan), like left activists who use terms like BIPOC without thinking if it makes sense here - spend enough time online and everyone becomes more american.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,551

    Manor of Northstead
    The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed Nigel Paul Farage to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/manor-of-northstead--3

    Government press release.

    After reading the posts and Richard’s question on this yesterday, I looked it up. There’s two they use alternating for resigning since the 70s, historically there were hundreds they used or could use. Or even be thousands of these hundreds? It came about when Parliament, the commons, wrestling power from Kings, kings to set them up and attach money to bribe MPs into their camp, so to fight back commons ruled anyone taking one of these things is instantly cancelling their Parliament membership.

    I’m sure there’s some who’d argue this is British constitution and isn’t brilliant and beautiful, whilst others come over all Porterhouse Blue and say what archaic gibberish, surely we can do MP resignations more modern in 21st century.

    by statute they can only use these two remaining ones, I think it would be cool if law was Chancellor could invent a whole new one each time if they wanted, like the kings of old did, it could be themed on why someone resigning? Taking the Lord Governorship of the Clacton Chalets.
    It seems ironic that an MP who takes a couple of guineas from the king should automatically lose his seat whereas an MP who receives £5M from a billionaire will stand proud and defend it. Shouldn't it be the other way round?
    I understand, as soon as you are not an MP anymore, Parliament Investigations into you stop? So now Farage is Lieutenant Governor of the Clacton Chalets he is no longer being investigated on the serious questions that needed to be answered?

    I don’t see why they shouldn’t carry on. But I think there are examples where because of this, some resignations were blocked so the investigating could continue. Maybe that suggestion from the Lib Dem’s to block and carry on investigating wasn’t so crazy? It was certainly the last thing Farage would like to happen - fight the seat after the investigation results.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,509
    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Having called the election for one purpose, what explanation would he give for this switch? The narrative becomes Farage runs away in disgrace. Does Cunningham have any connection to the constituency? Once the Reform candidate changes, the other parties would perhaps all decide to stand.

    Farage has made his bed and he now has to lie in it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,423
    Pro_Rata said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    I'm certain you said that about Corbyn when he misspoke about Salisbury, fair minded man that you are.
    Quite. I trust what people say unless they say it was a mistake. If they instead tell us they said it but meant something else and that's our fault, i'm not inclined to accept it.

    Just because something is offensive doesn't mean it was not intentionally so. Restore's gimmick is that Reform are too mainstream - so why wouldn't they advance radical opinions on all sorts of things?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,391

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    We may be about to find out. Farage may just walk away. Does he really want two or three more years at the frontline like this and then possibly actually having to be PM and all the work involved (and no outside earnings etc)?
    This stunt shows that he does want it imo. He genuinely wants to be PM. Otherwise he'd have gone with "this is intolerable, I've had enough, bye." It was a chance to do that.

    Nice header btw.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,509

    Manor of Northstead
    The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed Nigel Paul Farage to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/manor-of-northstead--3

    Government press release.

    After reading the posts and Richard’s question on this yesterday, I looked it up. There’s two they use alternating for resigning since the 70s, historically there were hundreds they used or could use. Or even be thousands of these hundreds? It came about when Parliament, the commons, wrestling power from Kings, kings to set them up and attach money to bribe MPs into their camp, so to fight back commons ruled anyone taking one of these things is instantly cancelling their Parliament membership.

    I’m sure there’s some who’d argue this is British constitution and isn’t brilliant and beautiful, whilst others come over all Porterhouse Blue and say what archaic gibberish, surely we can do MP resignations more modern in 21st century.

    by statute they can only use these two remaining ones, I think it would be cool if law was Chancellor could invent a whole new one each time if they wanted, like the kings of old did, it could be themed on why someone resigning? Taking the Lord Governorship of the Clacton Chalets.
    It seems ironic that an MP who takes a couple of guineas from the king should automatically lose his seat whereas an MP who receives £5M from a billionaire will stand proud and defend it. Shouldn't it be the other way round?
    I understand, as soon as you are not an MP anymore, Parliament Investigations into you stop? So now Farage is Lieutenant Governor of the Clacton Chalets he is no longer being investigated on the serious questions that needed to be answered?

    I don’t see why they shouldn’t carry on. But I think there are examples where because of this, some resignations were blocked so the investigating could continue. Maybe that suggestion from the Lib Dem’s to block and carry on investigating wasn’t so crazy? It was certainly the last thing Farage would like to happen - fight the seat after the investigation results.
    The investigation stops as he is no longer an MP. The investigation, however, re-starts if he becomes an MP again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,217
    edited 3:56PM
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    Look where he said it, on a US podcast, courting US money and clicks with a pro-gun message. A desperate attempt to keep his sponsor, the loathsome ketamine fuelled racist Musk, on board. Whether deliberate or simply careless it speaks to a callousness that will be utterly shocking for anyone who remembers that day as one of the darkest in our history. Lowe should never be forgiven for this. He has showed us who he is.
    He wanted to show where his empathy lies. Not with the victims of gun massacres like Dunblane (and countless in the US) but with people like his "bless him he's dead now" father who used to "shoot pistols for Oxford University" and because of pesky Dunblane had his pistols "taken away from him".

    These guys are entitled exploitative ghouls.
    It's another case of taking on the views and positions of "those you swim with"

    In this case hard right Americans - this is the classic minimisation rhetoric you see after American school shootings from such people.

    See anti-semitism picked up from hanging around with groups that are anti-semitic etc.
    The financial/digital power of the American hard right is a huge threat to us. I hope it doesn't prevail here - but it won't be for lack of trying.
    Sure

    But I was talking of the cultural absorption of ideas and mentalities from those they associate with, not so much being paid to adopt.

    See previously, has been "what, that's racist?" from white progressives hanging around with certain funky groups, who then repeat the statements commonly made by the members of those groups.

    An amusing, personal example, was my younger daughter, a couple of years back, ranting about the evil profits of the medical healthcare insurance industry - because she was absorbing a lot of American content from the left.

    In this case, I think, Lowe has absorbed the line from the pro-gun US lobby to a point that he didn't realise that what he was saying was unusual or offensive.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,423

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Having called the election for one purpose, what explanation would he give for this switch? The narrative becomes Farage runs away in disgrace. Does Cunningham have any connection to the constituency? Once the Reform candidate changes, the other parties would perhaps all decide to stand.

    Farage has made his bed and he now has to lie in it.
    He can easily stick with the line that others are afraid to face him, that will play fine with supporters. Not standing after all might just confuse them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,775

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Having called the election for one purpose, what explanation would he give for this switch? The narrative becomes Farage runs away in disgrace. Does Cunningham have any connection to the constituency? Once the Reform candidate changes, the other parties would perhaps all decide to stand.

    Farage has made his bed and he now has to lie in it.
    You don't have to have a connection. PBer Nick Palmer famously said he had no prior connections to Broxtowe before he was selected.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,423

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    Look where he said it, on a US podcast, courting US money and clicks with a pro-gun message. A desperate attempt to keep his sponsor, the loathsome ketamine fuelled racist Musk, on board. Whether deliberate or simply careless it speaks to a callousness that will be utterly shocking for anyone who remembers that day as one of the darkest in our history. Lowe should never be forgiven for this. He has showed us who he is.
    He wanted to show where his empathy lies. Not with the victims of gun massacres like Dunblane (and countless in the US) but with people like his "bless him he's dead now" father who used to "shoot pistols for Oxford University" and because of pesky Dunblane had his pistols "taken away from him".

    These guys are entitled exploitative ghouls.
    It's another case of taking on the views and positions of "those you swim with"

    In this case hard right Americans - this is the classic minimisation rhetoric you see after American school shootings from such people.

    See anti-semitism picked up from hanging around with groups that are anti-semitic etc.
    The financial/digital power of the American hard right is a huge threat to us. I hope it doesn't prevail here - but it won't be for lack of trying.
    Sure

    But I was talking of the cultural absorption of ideas and mentalities from those they associate with, not so much being paid to adopt.

    See previously, has been "what, that's racist?" from white progressives hanging around with certain funky groups, who then repeat the statements commonly made by the members of those groups.

    An amusing, personal example, was my younger daughter, a couple of years back, ranting about the evil profits of the medical healthcare insurance industry - because she was absorbing a lot of American content from the left.

    In this case, I think, Lowe has absorbed the line from the pro-gun US lobby to a point that he didn't realise that what he was saying was unusual or offensive.
    Plausible. Hang around any group enough and it affects what you see as normal.

    The audience probably loved it.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 844
    edited 3:59PM

    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

    Yes

    Will FIFA let them - debatable
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,423
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Having called the election for one purpose, what explanation would he give for this switch? The narrative becomes Farage runs away in disgrace. Does Cunningham have any connection to the constituency? Once the Reform candidate changes, the other parties would perhaps all decide to stand.

    Farage has made his bed and he now has to lie in it.
    You don't have to have a connection. PBer Nick Palmer famously said he had no prior connections to Broxtowe before he was selected.
    I think need for connection is nice to have but overplayed thesedays.

    People move to areas for work and set down new roots all the time, no reason an MP could not.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 29,191

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    This nails it. 'Living standards rising more slowly' is being perceived as 'living standards falling' by large chunks of the voting public across the West and they don't like it, so scapegoats (immigration, Europe, taxes etc.) are sought and quick 'fixes' lapped up.

    My question is: is it inevitable that living standards continue to rise more slowly in the developed world (because... ultimately, growth cannot continue indefinitely) or is this some sort of seismic adjustment as we move from the industrial age to the AI age?

    Also, is neoliberalism dead given it's failed to deliver anything but low growth for the past 20 years or so?
    Living standards are falling for many.

    House prices have risen faster than earnings for a long time now and housing is not properly factored into inflation which is based on home owners and not people who need to pay for where they live.

    If you need to pay for the roof over your head, then living standards are for many lower than they would have been for someone comparable in the past.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,509
    edited 3:59PM
    .
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Having called the election for one purpose, what explanation would he give for this switch? The narrative becomes Farage runs away in disgrace. Does Cunningham have any connection to the constituency? Once the Reform candidate changes, the other parties would perhaps all decide to stand.

    Farage has made his bed and he now has to lie in it.
    You don't have to have a connection. PBer Nick Palmer famously said he had no prior connections to Broxtowe before he was selected.
    You don’t, no. But it helps. And the focus on questions like that is higher in a by-election than a general election.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,919
    Eabhal said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MelonB said:

    Watch this. [Video of Select Committee embedded in tweet.]

    We currently pay £1.5 billion a year to switch wind farms off when it's too windy.

    Rachel Fletcher from Octopus Energy has just told Parliament that could soar to £10 BILLION by 2030.

    Ed Miliband is writing cheques for wind farm developers before the grid can move their energy to where it’s needed.

    This is a political choice and it is making electricity expensive.

    Government needs to wake up to what their plans are doing to our energy prices and make electricity cheap.

    https://x.com/ClaireCoutinho/status/2075111661493498266

    The message might have been more effective without Coutinho's spin but...

    Coutinho is dog whistling on this, that the answer is to burn more fossil fuels. Which is absolutely not what Octopus are arguing. We need much more rapid grid upgrading. Then we get tonnes of essentially free energy.
    That’s half the solution. Another is to stop building wind farms in the far north of Scotland in the vague hope that one day there might be enough transmission to get the energy down to London.

    It’s why Octopus push so hard for nodal pricing. Let the market decide the efficient allocation - either by building turbines close to industry, or industry close to turbines.

    (It’s also worth noting that in effect we pay CCGT to turn off during windy period too - the difference is that their fixed costs are absorbed as an overhead).
    It really isn't (a solution). The UK grid is one of the most dilapidated in Europe, barely can cope wth current usage, let alone fit for purpose for a fully electrified future. It requires billions spent on it in any scenario, and you will build it for whatever sources you have and will likely have, including normal redundancy for security of supply. You're not going to refuse to strengthen the grid to the north of Scotland on some notion it seems too far away.
    That supports my point - instead of spending billions to build transmission to the north of Scotland, use that cash to refurbish the grid around the population centres.

    There’s a reason the cables from offshore wind come ashore close to existing or former gas/nuclear/coal power stations. It’s because the transmission is already there.
    Those existing gas power stations get their supply from Norway and, increasingly, Louisiana, which are hardly more convenient than the Moray Firth.

    There's a lot of waste in the UK energy system but even so they aren't going to be quite so stupid as to exclude places that provide the energy from the Grid upgrade.

    There's a reason why so much wind energy is produced in Scotland. It has the best wind conditions on earth

    In any case wind generators in northern Scotland pay for being further away from their customers in the form of higher transmission charges, as consumers in South East England also pay higher charges for being further away from energy sources. This is done through the TNUoS balancing mechanism.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,217
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Having called the election for one purpose, what explanation would he give for this switch? The narrative becomes Farage runs away in disgrace. Does Cunningham have any connection to the constituency? Once the Reform candidate changes, the other parties would perhaps all decide to stand.

    Farage has made his bed and he now has to lie in it.
    You don't have to have a connection. PBer Nick Palmer famously said he had no prior connections to Broxtowe before he was selected.
    I think the whole carpet bagging thing is an import from American culture. In the past, many, many MPs have shopped around for a constituency. In some parties, trying to stand in a hopeless constituency was considered an example of grit and willingness to learn. You were expected to live in the constituency if you won and put down roots there, of course.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,509
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Having called the election for one purpose, what explanation would he give for this switch? The narrative becomes Farage runs away in disgrace. Does Cunningham have any connection to the constituency? Once the Reform candidate changes, the other parties would perhaps all decide to stand.

    Farage has made his bed and he now has to lie in it.
    He can easily stick with the line that others are afraid to face him, that will play fine with supporters. Not standing after all might just confuse them.
    I’ll give you 100/1 that Cunningham will be the Reform UK candidate at the Clacton by-election. If she is, I’ll give £100 to a charity of your choice. If she isn’t, you have to give £1 to a charity of my choice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,423
    Time to say nice things about Nigel Farage - he was right about Rupert Lowe.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,767
    From the header: Spare a thought for Robert Jenrick. Or Suella Braverman. Or maybe Tim Montgomerie. Or, perhaps most of all, the cerebral Danny Kruger.

    Indeed. I mentioned earlier the silence of Kruger, who continues not to bark on X.

    Kruger has however apparently said this:

    Kruger claimed “the government and its allies in the media and the other political parties” were working to stack the system against Farage’s party by cancelling elections and changing the rules to stop it from winning power.

    “Nigel has decided, I think rightly, that that’s not acceptable, and what needs to happen now is that his voters — the people who should ultimately decide whether he has a place in politics — should have the chance to send a clear signal that they still believe in him,” added Kruger.



    https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-nigel-farage-populist-backlash/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,217
    DoctorG said:

    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

    Yes

    Will FIFA let them - debatable
    FIFA are getting lots of money and love from outside Europe. The up and coming parts of the world especially.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,391
    edited 4:10PM

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What Rupert Lowe said must have been an innocent mistake, because no politician would knowingly torpedo their own electoral chances by deliberately saying something like that.

    Look where he said it, on a US podcast, courting US money and clicks with a pro-gun message. A desperate attempt to keep his sponsor, the loathsome ketamine fuelled racist Musk, on board. Whether deliberate or simply careless it speaks to a callousness that will be utterly shocking for anyone who remembers that day as one of the darkest in our history. Lowe should never be forgiven for this. He has showed us who he is.
    He wanted to show where his empathy lies. Not with the victims of gun massacres like Dunblane (and countless in the US) but with people like his "bless him he's dead now" father who used to "shoot pistols for Oxford University" and because of pesky Dunblane had his pistols "taken away from him".

    These guys are entitled exploitative ghouls.
    It's another case of taking on the views and positions of "those you swim with"

    In this case hard right Americans - this is the classic minimisation rhetoric you see after American school shootings from such people.

    See anti-semitism picked up from hanging around with groups that are anti-semitic etc.
    The financial/digital power of the American hard right is a huge threat to us. I hope it doesn't prevail here - but it won't be for lack of trying.
    Sure

    But I was talking of the cultural absorption of ideas and mentalities from those they associate with, not so much being paid to adopt.

    See previously, has been "what, that's racist?" from white progressives hanging around with certain funky groups, who then repeat the statements commonly made by the members of those groups.

    In this case,, I think, Lowe has absorbed the line from the pro-gun US lobby to a point that he didn't realise that what he was saying was unusual or offensive.
    Possibly so. That's often a question with these guys. Do they actually believe what they're saying or is it mainly for attention/approval and $$$. I guess some do, some don't, and some don't really know themselves. Of course you can make yourself believe things. People are quite good at that. It's a question I've ceased to care too much about tbh. It's impossible to answer without ESP and either way, sincere opinion or just shtick, it's bad news.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,767

    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

    Ask William Hills:

    Morocco to beat France 5/1
    Count Binhead to win Clacton 4/1.

    How are satirists to make a living when reality keeps beating them to it?

  • TazTaz Posts: 29,248

    DoctorG said:

    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

    Yes

    Will FIFA let them - debatable
    FIFA are getting lots of money and love from outside Europe. The up and coming parts of the world especially.
    I’m not sure this evening is one where I’d like a job as a Gendarme in Paris
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 496
    Very good header. Wouldn't be surprised to see most of these out of parliament at the next election, no way back.

    They can look at the careers of Reckless and Carswell as a blueprint for their future.

    Does beg the question about the hundreds of councillors, perhaps more conciliatory with them, if needed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,639

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    "I doubt there is a single person in the entire political ecosystem who thinks Reform have a chance without their frontman at the helm."

    I'm far from sure about this.

    Indeed: it is entirely possible Reform would be more successful with a frontman who is less ... divisive.

    Most importantly, the factors driving the rise of Reform -living standards no longer rising like they used to- are true across the Western world. And across the Western world, parties like Reform have sprung up. Or, in the case of the US, the insurgents grabbed control of one of the existing parties of government.
    Farage brings out those who don't normally vote.

    Tice? He is a rather less, er, enticing prospect....
    Perhaps Farage is bored already. The cut and thrust of real Hitleresque Naziism from the Whitehouse must be a more interesting prospect than batting for those who swig from cans of Madri as they go about their business on their mobility scooters navigating manfully the pavements of Jaywick and Clacton.
    there are very few pavements in Jaywick. At least that was the case when I was there last.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,248
    edited 4:18PM
    dunno what happened there !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,423
    edited 4:24PM
    algarkirk said:

    From the header: Spare a thought for Robert Jenrick. Or Suella Braverman. Or maybe Tim Montgomerie. Or, perhaps most of all, the cerebral Danny Kruger.

    Indeed. I mentioned earlier the silence of Kruger, who continues not to bark on X.

    Kruger has however apparently said this:

    Kruger claimed “the government and its allies in the media and the other political parties” were working to stack the system against Farage’s party by cancelling elections and changing the rules to stop it from winning power.

    “Nigel has decided, I think rightly, that that’s not acceptable, and what needs to happen now is that his voters — the people who should ultimately decide whether he has a place in politics — should have the chance to send a clear signal that they still believe in him,” added Kruger.



    https://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-nigel-farage-populist-backlash/

    I think Kruger is the type to go all in when he takes a position, and hence be just as willing to use the same lines as others.

    It still makes no sense to suggest backing from the public before its comfirmed you did something wrong absolves you somehow, people support others from attack but can change their mind as facts emerge.

    I think he'd win a recall, and that actually would mean something.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,248

    Changing the subject: Can Morocco beat France tonight?

    In football or on the streets of Paris 🤔
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,423

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Having called the election for one purpose, what explanation would he give for this switch? The narrative becomes Farage runs away in disgrace. Does Cunningham have any connection to the constituency? Once the Reform candidate changes, the other parties would perhaps all decide to stand.

    Farage has made his bed and he now has to lie in it.
    He can easily stick with the line that others are afraid to face him, that will play fine with supporters. Not standing after all might just confuse them.
    I’ll give you 100/1 that Cunningham will be the Reform UK candidate at the Clacton by-election. If she is, I’ll give £100 to a charity of your choice. If she isn’t, you have to give £1 to a charity of my choice.
    That's nice, but i wouldn't make you donate £100 even on such an outside chance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,423

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If I were advising Farage, I'd tell him to let Leila Cunningham stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, and then he could try to get back into the HoC the next time there's a by-election in a Reform-friendly seat.

    Having called the election for one purpose, what explanation would he give for this switch? The narrative becomes Farage runs away in disgrace. Does Cunningham have any connection to the constituency? Once the Reform candidate changes, the other parties would perhaps all decide to stand.

    Farage has made his bed and he now has to lie in it.
    You don't have to have a connection. PBer Nick Palmer famously said he had no prior connections to Broxtowe before he was selected.
    You don’t, no. But it helps. And the focus on questions like that is higher in a by-election than a general election.
    At the very least you'll be less likely to muck up the names of areas in the constituency.

    Though they are big - i know jack all about Warminster.
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 591
    Taz said:

    Dan Neidle confirms what I have suspected, Gary Stevenson is full of crap.

    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2075206427476459826

    The lobby group Patriotic Millionaires couldn’t have picked a poorer advocate for their lobbying than this clown with his Barrow Boy persona

    He even lost The Guardian.
    Yes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2026/jul/08/how-to-get-filthy-rich-with-gary-stevenson-review-channel-4

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,392
    Strong header but I suspect the re-rat is possible.
    Would strengthen Kemi's position to have at least some of them back.
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