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Starmer set to feel the Burn-ham on Friday – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,191
edited June 14 in General
Starmer set to feel the Burn-ham on Friday – politicalbetting.com

The Times understands that Louise Haigh, who is running the campaign for Burnham in Makerfield, and Lucy Powell, the deputy Labour leader, had originally been of the view that he should “go long” and challenge later in the year, after the September party conference.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    edited June 14
    As I posted on the night Healey went: Starmer is finished. The moment the Def Sec went saying UK is not safe any last fine strands of hope for Starmer were gone.

    Reeves too.

    No way back from this.

    Clear out the stables Andy.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,886

    As I posted on the night Healey went: Starmer is finished. The moment the Def Sec went saying UK is not safe any last fine strands of hope for Starmer were gone.

    Reeves too.

    No way back from this.

    Clear out the stables Andy.

    The MPs don't change. That's the biggest problem for whoever leads the Labour party.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    tlg86 said:

    As I posted on the night Healey went: Starmer is finished. The moment the Def Sec went saying UK is not safe any last fine strands of hope for Starmer were gone.

    Reeves too.

    No way back from this.

    Clear out the stables Andy.

    The MPs don't change. That's the biggest problem for whoever leads the Labour party.
    There's 100s of them. Surely Andy B can find someone who can actually be CoE without f*cking up every day of the week?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,780
    Roy Hattersley has died.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,287
    edited June 14
    I cannot see any advantage in Burnham delaying his coup and frankly the whole farce needs ending with Starmer and Reeves picking up their P45's

    And hopefully Starmer is not offered Foreign Secretary or any other posts - he needs to go altogether
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,287

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    Sorry to hear that

    RIP
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,942

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    RIP
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,362

    As I posted on the night Healey went: Starmer is finished. The moment the Def Sec went saying UK is not safe any last fine strands of hope for Starmer were gone.

    Reeves too.

    No way back from this.

    Clear out the stables Andy.

    There could be more twists to this yet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    Netanyahu is in a very bad place with respect to the US Iran policy now.

    One could laugh but no damn good will come of any of it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,942

    Big Rupe is agin the social media ban.

    Banning teenagers from social media with ludicrous conditions is unworkable, unrealistic and unwanted.

    Here’s a mad idea - let parents parent.

    Not the state, but mums, dads, grandparents or whoever else.

    Restore Britain will always trust the family over big government.

    https://x.com/RupertLowe10/status/2066160838465999106?s=20

    Hmmm.

    Strong smell of not wanting to upset the sugar daddy there.
    Not that I'm sure he's even wrong. I don't really know where I stand on it. I think it's the hardware I'm opposed to, not just the software.
    His argument rests on family pressure being enough to counteract the addiction algorithms.

    I'd like to think that is true but I need to be convinced.

    There's a multi-billion $ payday vs Mom and Pop.

    What also emerged in that Twitter thread is that 'Bluesky' is excluded from the banned list. I can't see any possible justification for that.
    That's because you've made no effort to work out why that might be the case.
    Try, for example, looking up how its algorithms differ from other social media sites.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,109
    FPT…

    Big Rupe is agin the social media ban.

    Banning teenagers from social media with ludicrous conditions is unworkable, unrealistic and unwanted.

    Here’s a mad idea - let parents parent.

    Not the state, but mums, dads, grandparents or whoever else.

    Restore Britain will always trust the family over big government.

    https://x.com/RupertLowe10/status/2066160838465999106?s=20

    Hmmm.

    Strong smell of not wanting to upset the sugar daddy there.
    Not that I'm sure he's even wrong. I don't really know where I stand on it. I think it's the hardware I'm opposed to, not just the software.
    His argument rests on family pressure being enough to counteract the addiction algorithms.

    I'd like to think that is true but I need to be convinced.

    There's a multi-billion $ payday vs Mom and Pop.

    What also emerged in that Twitter thread is that 'Bluesky' is excluded from the banned list. I can't see any possible justification for that.
    They’re following the Australian list. It was left off the Australian list because so few people use it, and even fewer kids, that it didn’t make the cut. BlueSky is voluntarily following the Australian rules anyway.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,011
    Is Starmer determined to have this as his legacy?

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2066253868170694817

    The Assisted Dying Bill will be reintroduced to Parliament next week by Labour MP Lauren Edwards
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,325

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    A man my (left wing) mother once described as "a thug" for his role in trying to abolish grammar schools in the early 2000s.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,984

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    I assumed he had died years ago.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,362
    Nigelb said:

    Big Rupe is agin the social media ban.

    Banning teenagers from social media with ludicrous conditions is unworkable, unrealistic and unwanted.

    Here’s a mad idea - let parents parent.

    Not the state, but mums, dads, grandparents or whoever else.

    Restore Britain will always trust the family over big government.

    https://x.com/RupertLowe10/status/2066160838465999106?s=20

    Hmmm.

    Strong smell of not wanting to upset the sugar daddy there.
    Not that I'm sure he's even wrong. I don't really know where I stand on it. I think it's the hardware I'm opposed to, not just the software.
    His argument rests on family pressure being enough to counteract the addiction algorithms.

    I'd like to think that is true but I need to be convinced.

    There's a multi-billion $ payday vs Mom and Pop.

    What also emerged in that Twitter thread is that 'Bluesky' is excluded from the banned list. I can't see any possible justification for that.
    That's because you've made no effort to work out why that might be the case.
    Try, for example, looking up how its algorithms differ from other social media sites.
    Social media harms:
    Addictive
    Bad actors
    Bullying
    Harmful material

    All these are present on Bluesky, and if they are not, can pretty easily go there if that is where the under 16s are allowed.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,780
    carnforth said:

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    A man my (left wing) mother once described as "a thug" for his role in trying to abolish grammar schools in the early 2000s.
    Shows the awfulness of grammar schools that it united the right and left such as Thatcher and Hattersley in wanting to abolish them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    Sorry to hear that

    RIP
    Indeed.

    His spitting image puppet will live through the ages.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,984
    edited June 14
    Did the ITV football pundits get a job lot deal on washed out looking unbranded polo shirts?

    Roy Keane looks like a tired dad who has finally spent the weekend sorting out the garden.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,522
    Greetings from Liguria.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,484

    Netanyahu is in a very bad place with respect to the US Iran policy now.

    One could laugh but no damn good will come of any of it.

    Fuck Bibi and Fuck Israel

    They deserve it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,522
    boulay said:

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    I assumed he had died years ago.
    A friend of mine collected signed photos of politicians (yes, niche).

    Hattersley's looked like it hadn't been updated in a quarter of a century. Vain - or mean? We'll never know now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,484

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    Sorry to hear that

    RIP
    Indeed.

    His spitting image puppet will live through the ages.

    Spitting being the operative word
  • Have stuck some money on Starmer to be replaced by the end of June which I reckon will come in a lot when he’s challenged.

    Also stuck a load on SKS exit this year which feels like free money.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,917
    Burnham if he wins will surely challenge immediately. I can't see any benefit to him of delay. I think Starmer then resigns. He says he'll fight a contest but I don't think he will. Not against Burnham anyway.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,862
    eek said:

    Great to see the Commons are bringing back an identical Assisted Dying law to that which was passed last term. Good!

    Hopefully the Commons passes it, and the Lords can stop dicking around and act like adults and either choose reasonable amendments that the Commons accepts to improve the bill, or the Parliament Act sees it go through unamended since the elected chamber has passed it twice by that point.

    It's a Private Mermbers Bill and not part of the Government's Manifesto - the Parliament Act doesn't apply...
    Parliament Act has bugger all to do with Government Manifesto's.

    Salisbury Convention does not apply. Parliament Act does.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,039
    If Burnham has a thumping win on Thursday then yes an immediate leadership challenge in the wake of the resignation of Healey makes sense. If however he scrapes home by less than the combined Reform and Restore vote it would look rather presumptious to immediately challenge the PM when he has barely been elected a constituency MP whose needs he should focus on first. Starmer has also made clear he will contest any leadership challenge and in that scenario he should wait for Streeting to make the first move
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,039

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    Not my flavour of politics but did go to an interesting talk by Hattersley at the Hay Festival once on his book on The Devonshires
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,572
    Roy Hattersley, former Labour deputy, dies aged 93
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,994
    The thing about "I fight on, I fight to win" is that Maggie said it in the evening 21 November 1990; she announced her resignation the following morning.
  • HYUFD said:

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    Not my flavour of politics but did go to an interesting talk by Hattersley at the Hay Festival once on his book on The Devonshires
    Saw him at the Edinburgh Book Festival many times, and he was always fascinating, no matter what the topic.

    Headteacher at a school I used to work at (also sadly now passed away) started his career in East London in the 70s. Said they had a hustings at the school, which got invaded by the National Front. Claimed Hattersley jumped off the stage and chinned one of them.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,566

    eek said:

    Great to see the Commons are bringing back an identical Assisted Dying law to that which was passed last term. Good!

    Hopefully the Commons passes it, and the Lords can stop dicking around and act like adults and either choose reasonable amendments that the Commons accepts to improve the bill, or the Parliament Act sees it go through unamended since the elected chamber has passed it twice by that point.

    It's a Private Mermbers Bill and not part of the Government's Manifesto - the Parliament Act doesn't apply...
    Parliament Act has bugger all to do with Government Manifesto's.

    Salisbury Convention does not apply. Parliament Act does.
    Leaving aside the merits or otherwise of the proposals, how does a change of PM affect bills already in the system? I assume it is not like the end of a Parliament where everything falls? Is it just carry on as usual?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,566

    eek said:

    Great to see the Commons are bringing back an identical Assisted Dying law to that which was passed last term. Good!

    Hopefully the Commons passes it, and the Lords can stop dicking around and act like adults and either choose reasonable amendments that the Commons accepts to improve the bill, or the Parliament Act sees it go through unamended since the elected chamber has passed it twice by that point.

    It's a Private Mermbers Bill and not part of the Government's Manifesto - the Parliament Act doesn't apply...
    Parliament Act has bugger all to do with Government Manifesto's.

    Salisbury Convention does not apply. Parliament Act does.
    Yep. Parliament Act applies to all 'public bills'. That can be Government or Private.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,634
    Go Nippon boys! I've had enough of the Dutch dirge chanting
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,572
    Finally the game ignites
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,572
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,572
    @naida46.bsky.social‬

    Explosions rock Crimea as authorities close Kerch Bridge

    Residents and social media users report explosions and air defences near Kerch.

    The temporary closure of the bridge has stirred fears of isolation for the peninsula.

    https://bsky.app/profile/naida46.bsky.social/post/3mobobevzlk2m
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,634
    Oh nooo
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,862
    Scott_xP said:
    Trump has surrendered to the ayatollahs.

    What a loser.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    Wasn't Hattersley once represented on TV by a tub of lard?
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,387

    eek said:

    Great to see the Commons are bringing back an identical Assisted Dying law to that which was passed last term. Good!

    Hopefully the Commons passes it, and the Lords can stop dicking around and act like adults and either choose reasonable amendments that the Commons accepts to improve the bill, or the Parliament Act sees it go through unamended since the elected chamber has passed it twice by that point.

    It's a Private Mermbers Bill and not part of the Government's Manifesto - the Parliament Act doesn't apply...
    Parliament Act has bugger all to do with Government Manifesto's.

    Salisbury Convention does not apply. Parliament Act does.
    Leaving aside the merits or otherwise of the proposals, how does a change of PM affect bills already in the system? I assume it is not like the end of a Parliament where everything falls? Is it just carry on as usual?
    It does although there would be a expectation that a new PM would want to prorogue Parliament for a new King's Speech in which case the Bill would fall. It would be a bit odd to have a new PM continuing with the previous PM's legislative programme for the year or so that this bill would take.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,039
    edited June 14

    HYUFD said:

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    Not my flavour of politics but did go to an interesting talk by Hattersley at the Hay Festival once on his book on The Devonshires
    Saw him at the Edinburgh Book Festival many times, and he was always fascinating, no matter what the topic.

    Headteacher at a school I used to work at (also sadly now passed away) started his career in East London in the 70s. Said they had a hustings at the school, which got invaded by the National Front. Claimed Hattersley jumped off the stage and chinned one of them.
    Yes Hattersley was certainly a character, on the right of Labour and helped drag it back from the Militant left after the 1983 Labour landslide defeat as Kinnock's Deputy but still a moderate Socialist who was never comfortable with Blair and New Labour and stayed Labour rather than going SDP like Jenkins and Owen and Williams. Was briefly a Cabinet Minister under Callaghan as well and as a Defence Minister under Wilson deployed British troops to Northern Ireland RIP
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,011
    What could it be?

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2066259948841898495

    At 11 am tomorrow I will announce a major and long overdue tax reform.

    Reform UK will turn the tables on two-tier Britain.

    We will build an economy that puts British workers first. Always.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,862
    edited June 14
    Stereodog said:

    eek said:

    Great to see the Commons are bringing back an identical Assisted Dying law to that which was passed last term. Good!

    Hopefully the Commons passes it, and the Lords can stop dicking around and act like adults and either choose reasonable amendments that the Commons accepts to improve the bill, or the Parliament Act sees it go through unamended since the elected chamber has passed it twice by that point.

    It's a Private Mermbers Bill and not part of the Government's Manifesto - the Parliament Act doesn't apply...
    Parliament Act has bugger all to do with Government Manifesto's.

    Salisbury Convention does not apply. Parliament Act does.
    Leaving aside the merits or otherwise of the proposals, how does a change of PM affect bills already in the system? I assume it is not like the end of a Parliament where everything falls? Is it just carry on as usual?
    It does although there would be a expectation that a new PM would want to prorogue Parliament for a new King's Speech in which case the Bill would fall. It would be a bit odd to have a new PM continuing with the previous PM's legislative programme for the year or so that this bill would take.
    I had not thought of that. That would be a shame.

    It shouldn't take a year for this bill to get through Commons, then invoke the Parliament Act.

    It would be a real shame if Burnham prorogues Parliament (so its no longer successive sessions) before this passes and becomes law.

    No idea if new PMs do prorogue Parliament so rapidly.
  • https://x.com/tomtugendhat/status/2066148923572650244

    I’m in Dulwich. One of the more expensive areas of London, supposedly a global city, and I’m getting worse mobile phone reception that I did in Kabul a decade ago. I pay for two contracts: @O2 and @EE and neither is reliable so I can’t work.

    Mobile phones are useless in vast areas of Britain and have got worse. You can never work on a train, unlike in France. But we’re spending £4.5 billion in bike lanes and crossings.

    This government is prioritising virtue signalling vanity projects when we need infrastructure urgently.

    Good Tweet. Remove planning requirements for sites in London and this issue will disappear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,039
    edited June 14

    carnforth said:

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    A man my (left wing) mother once described as "a thug" for his role in trying to abolish grammar schools in the early 2000s.
    Shows the awfulness of grammar schools that it united the right and left such as Thatcher and Hattersley in wanting to abolish them.
    Thatcher and Hattersley got where they did in large part because both attended grammar schools, neither having parents wealthy enough to afford private education for them. Thatcher to be fair to her only followed Heath's orders in not blocking largely Labour councils turning grammars into comprehensives, as PM she took a different approach and by 1997 there were more pupils in grammars than there had been in 1979
  • What could it be?

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2066259948841898495

    At 11 am tomorrow I will announce a major and long overdue tax reform.

    Reform UK will turn the tables on two-tier Britain.

    We will build an economy that puts British workers first. Always.

    Why didn’t he suggest it for the 14 years he was in government
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,962

    What could it be?

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2066259948841898495

    At 11 am tomorrow I will announce a major and long overdue tax reform.

    Reform UK will turn the tables on two-tier Britain.

    We will build an economy that puts British workers first. Always.

    Why didn’t he suggest it for the 14 years he was in government
    Too busy handing out ILR to asylum seekers from Sudan?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    Rt Hon Nigel Evans
    @nigelmp

    Roy Hattersley was one of the genuine old Labour politicians- fiercely academic with his true roots in support of working people- I was lucky enough to cross his last term in the Commons. It’s people like Roy that shaped politics for a generation with absolute belief in improving the lot of the people he represented….. on the lighter side he was a gift to spitting image- but his legacy was not that of his caricature. I pay tribute to the passing of a warrior of a politics more real.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,305

    eek said:

    Great to see the Commons are bringing back an identical Assisted Dying law to that which was passed last term. Good!

    Hopefully the Commons passes it, and the Lords can stop dicking around and act like adults and either choose reasonable amendments that the Commons accepts to improve the bill, or the Parliament Act sees it go through unamended since the elected chamber has passed it twice by that point.

    It's a Private Mermbers Bill and not part of the Government's Manifesto - the Parliament Act doesn't apply...
    Parliament Act has bugger all to do with Government Manifesto's.

    Salisbury Convention does not apply. Parliament Act does.
    Yep. Parliament Act applies to all 'public bills'. That can be Government or Private.
    This is the Bill which gives a central role to psychiatrists whose professional body has said that, while neutral on the principle, they do not support this Bill. And which every other professional organisation looking at it - from every disabled charity to the former head of the NHS, the Chief Coroner, palliative care specialists, those dealing with anorexia, domestic violence and coercive behaviour, the anti-suicide Tsar etc etc - has said they do not support and/or the Bill as drafted is unsafe.

    Meanwhile my local hospice has to raise money through plant sales because government won't fund the sector properly. But, hey, it's only grannies like me - as per Henry Marsh - or the poor (as per Lord Falconer) - who'll get bumped off so that important people like him get what they want. So who cares.

    There was a time when Labour saw its mission as alleviating poverty not using it as a reason to offer suicide from a health service. They may as well call it the Useless Mouths (Abolition Of) Law.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    Foxy said:

    What could it be?

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2066259948841898495

    At 11 am tomorrow I will announce a major and long overdue tax reform.

    Reform UK will turn the tables on two-tier Britain.

    We will build an economy that puts British workers first. Always.

    Why didn’t he suggest it for the 14 years he was in government
    Too busy handing out ILR to asylum seekers from Sudan?
    Indeed.

    No one has let more foreign people in than the Boris/Sunak/Jenrick/Braverman team iirc.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,718

    https://x.com/tomtugendhat/status/2066148923572650244

    I’m in Dulwich. One of the more expensive areas of London, supposedly a global city, and I’m getting worse mobile phone reception that I did in Kabul a decade ago. I pay for two contracts: @O2 and @EE and neither is reliable so I can’t work.

    Mobile phones are useless in vast areas of Britain and have got worse. You can never work on a train, unlike in France. But we’re spending £4.5 billion in bike lanes and crossings.

    This government is prioritising virtue signalling vanity projects when we need infrastructure urgently.

    Good Tweet. Remove planning requirements for sites in London and this issue will disappear.

    It is odd. I was actually standing next to the massive mast at Crystal Palace and barely getting a signal. Don't think this is the government's fault though
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565

    What could it be?

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2066259948841898495

    At 11 am tomorrow I will announce a major and long overdue tax reform.

    Reform UK will turn the tables on two-tier Britain.

    We will build an economy that puts British workers first. Always.

    Why didn’t he suggest it for the 14 years he was in government
    He was rather busy with a greasy pole.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565

    What could it be?

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2066259948841898495

    At 11 am tomorrow I will announce a major and long overdue tax reform.

    Reform UK will turn the tables on two-tier Britain.

    We will build an economy that puts British workers first. Always.

    Double NI for foreign?
  • FF43 said:

    https://x.com/tomtugendhat/status/2066148923572650244

    I’m in Dulwich. One of the more expensive areas of London, supposedly a global city, and I’m getting worse mobile phone reception that I did in Kabul a decade ago. I pay for two contracts: @O2 and @EE and neither is reliable so I can’t work.

    Mobile phones are useless in vast areas of Britain and have got worse. You can never work on a train, unlike in France. But we’re spending £4.5 billion in bike lanes and crossings.

    This government is prioritising virtue signalling vanity projects when we need infrastructure urgently.

    Good Tweet. Remove planning requirements for sites in London and this issue will disappear.

    It is odd. I was actually standing next to the massive mast at Crystal Palace and barely getting a signal. Don't think this is the government's fault though
    Perhaps your operator isn’t on that particular site.

    In any case, planning is a massive problem. They can’t even upgrade some sites that are already there because of red tape.

    Allow every mast in London without restriction.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,387

    Stereodog said:

    eek said:

    Great to see the Commons are bringing back an identical Assisted Dying law to that which was passed last term. Good!

    Hopefully the Commons passes it, and the Lords can stop dicking around and act like adults and either choose reasonable amendments that the Commons accepts to improve the bill, or the Parliament Act sees it go through unamended since the elected chamber has passed it twice by that point.

    It's a Private Mermbers Bill and not part of the Government's Manifesto - the Parliament Act doesn't apply...
    Parliament Act has bugger all to do with Government Manifesto's.

    Salisbury Convention does not apply. Parliament Act does.
    Leaving aside the merits or otherwise of the proposals, how does a change of PM affect bills already in the system? I assume it is not like the end of a Parliament where everything falls? Is it just carry on as usual?
    It does although there would be a expectation that a new PM would want to prorogue Parliament for a new King's Speech in which case the Bill would fall. It would be a bit odd to have a new PM continuing with the previous PM's legislative programme for the year or so that this bill would take.
    I had not thought of that. That would be a shame.

    It shouldn't take a year for this bill to get through Commons, then invoke the Parliament Act.

    It would be a real shame if Burnham prorogues Parliament (so its no longer successive sessions) before this passes and becomes law.

    No idea if new PMs do prorogue Parliament so rapidly.
    A quick Google shows that I might have been over influenced by the example of Boris who did it within 5 weeks. Other new PMs have let the session run it's course so maybe Burnham will do that.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,325
    Foxy said:

    What could it be?

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2066259948841898495

    At 11 am tomorrow I will announce a major and long overdue tax reform.

    Reform UK will turn the tables on two-tier Britain.

    We will build an economy that puts British workers first. Always.

    Why didn’t he suggest it for the 14 years he was in government
    Too busy handing out ILR to asylum seekers from Sudan?
    It wasn't ILR. Not that you'd be against it if it were.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,862
    Looked it up and the pattern is for there not to be an immediate Queens/Kings Speech when the PM changes within the Parliament and that traditionally new PMs have their first Speech when it is routinely next scheduled.

    Major, Brown, May, Truss and Sunak all continued the existing session.

    The exception to the rule was Boris which was sui generis for multiple reasons, including that prorogation was already overdue (it was already the longest session in modern history) and that the prorogation was initially voided by the Supreme Court, which was unprecedented. It was the only example of prorogation happening by a new PM in modern times.

    Interestingly Major took over less than a week after the Queens Speech and still waited until the next one.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,524

    What could it be?

    https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2066259948841898495

    At 11 am tomorrow I will announce a major and long overdue tax reform.

    Reform UK will turn the tables on two-tier Britain.

    We will build an economy that puts British workers first. Always.

    It could be irrelevant because Jenrick is in no position to enact major and long overdue tax reforms.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,306

    Have stuck some money on Starmer to be replaced by the end of June which I reckon will come in a lot when he’s challenged.

    Also stuck a load on SKS exit this year which feels like free money.

    Implausible. Timelines will be too long.
  • Have stuck some money on Starmer to be replaced by the end of June which I reckon will come in a lot when he’s challenged.

    Also stuck a load on SKS exit this year which feels like free money.

    Implausible. Timelines will be too long.
    £10 as a trading bet, feel like it will come in from where it is
  • Peace deal reached.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,524
    FF43 said:

    https://x.com/tomtugendhat/status/2066148923572650244

    I’m in Dulwich. One of the more expensive areas of London, supposedly a global city, and I’m getting worse mobile phone reception that I did in Kabul a decade ago. I pay for two contracts: @O2 and @EE and neither is reliable so I can’t work.

    Mobile phones are useless in vast areas of Britain and have got worse. You can never work on a train, unlike in France. But we’re spending £4.5 billion in bike lanes and crossings.

    This government is prioritising virtue signalling vanity projects when we need infrastructure urgently.

    Good Tweet. Remove planning requirements for sites in London and this issue will disappear.

    It is odd. I was actually standing next to the massive mast at Crystal Palace and barely getting a signal. Don't think this is the government's fault though
    Well, maybe worse phone signals are the government's fault for insisting that all that lovely Huawei network kit is ripped out in case it was riddled with official Chinese government spyware. Shame it is a class above the American gear replacing it (and their government would not dream of backdooring it).
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,862

    Have stuck some money on Starmer to be replaced by the end of June which I reckon will come in a lot when he’s challenged.

    Also stuck a load on SKS exit this year which feels like free money.

    Implausible. Timelines will be too long.
    Unlikely but plausible. Labour normally keeps nominations open 5-10 days for leadership contests.

    If its a 5 day window, June is possible.

    Thursday 18th Burnham wins by-election
    Friday 19th Burnham challenges/Starmer resigns. Contest begins.
    By Friday 26th Burnham might be only candidate.

    Starmer resigns as PM, Burnham becomes PM.

    Still 2 working days spare for delays.

    Improbable, but plausible.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,306

    Have stuck some money on Starmer to be replaced by the end of June which I reckon will come in a lot when he’s challenged.

    Also stuck a load on SKS exit this year which feels like free money.

    Implausible. Timelines will be too long.
    £10 as a trading bet, feel like it will come in from where it is
    Perhaps, but I still think the timelines will be known and mitigate against it even as a trade. But good luck!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,134

    Peace deal reached.

    Bibi will undermine it.
  • FF43 said:

    https://x.com/tomtugendhat/status/2066148923572650244

    I’m in Dulwich. One of the more expensive areas of London, supposedly a global city, and I’m getting worse mobile phone reception that I did in Kabul a decade ago. I pay for two contracts: @O2 and @EE and neither is reliable so I can’t work.

    Mobile phones are useless in vast areas of Britain and have got worse. You can never work on a train, unlike in France. But we’re spending £4.5 billion in bike lanes and crossings.

    This government is prioritising virtue signalling vanity projects when we need infrastructure urgently.

    Good Tweet. Remove planning requirements for sites in London and this issue will disappear.

    It is odd. I was actually standing next to the massive mast at Crystal Palace and barely getting a signal. Don't think this is the government's fault though
    Well, maybe worse phone signals are the government's fault for insisting that all that lovely Huawei network kit is ripped out in case it was riddled with official Chinese government spyware. Shame it is a class above the American gear replacing it (and their government would not dream of backdooring it).
    Cisco literally had backdoors in their equipment lol.

    Removing Huawei equipment was always stupid. We’ve had it in the fixed line network since 2011. Those green cabinets you see? Most of them are Huawei.
  • Have stuck some money on Starmer to be replaced by the end of June which I reckon will come in a lot when he’s challenged.

    Also stuck a load on SKS exit this year which feels like free money.

    Implausible. Timelines will be too long.
    Unlikely but plausible. Labour normally keeps nominations open 5-10 days for leadership contests.

    If its a 5 day window, June is possible.

    Thursday 18th Burnham wins by-election
    Friday 19th Burnham challenges/Starmer resigns. Contest begins.
    By Friday 26th Burnham might be only candidate.

    Starmer resigns as PM, Burnham becomes PM.

    Still 2 working days spare for delays.

    Improbable, but plausible.
    That is reflected in the odds, I’ve seen between 40 and 80 (I use Europe standard).

    It seems to be in Burnham’s interest to challenge as soon as possible, so as soon as he does those will come in IMHO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565

    Peace deal reached.

    Bibi will undermine it.
    NY Times:

    The United States and Iran reached a cease-fire agreement on Sunday, President Trump said, paving the way for further talks that could ultimately end a monthslong war that has killed thousands and rattled the global economy.

    “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” he said in a post on social media.

    There was no immediate confirmation from Iran.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,634
    Yay! Japan2 Netherlands 2
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,936

    Peace deal reached.

    Bibi will undermine it.
    NY Times:

    The United States and Iran reached a cease-fire agreement on Sunday, President Trump said, paving the way for further talks that could ultimately end a monthslong war that has killed thousands and rattled the global economy.

    “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” he said in a post on social media.

    There was no immediate confirmation from Iran.
    "FAKE NEWS from the RADICAL ORANGE LUNATIC!"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,572
    Iranian state TV is telling a slightly different version of events

    https://bsky.app/profile/lukemcgee.bsky.social/post/3mobqlvuzls2i
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    Trump: “I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”


    It was never yours to authorize you orange faced fat globule.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,862

    Peace deal reached.

    Shame on Trump. Failure.


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    NY Times:

    as we understand the details, the deal is really just an extension of the cease-fire for another 60-days. The most important and intractable issues — the status of Iran’s nuclear program and the U.S. sanctions on Iran — are deferred for the next phase of negotiations.

    ie it is bollocks to get through the world cup
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,862

    Peace deal reached.

    Bibi will undermine it.
    Hopefully.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,862

    NY Times:

    as we understand the details, the deal is really just an extension of the cease-fire for another 60-days. The most important and intractable issues — the status of Iran’s nuclear program and the U.S. sanctions on Iran — are deferred for the next phase of negotiations.

    ie it is bollocks to get through the world cup

    Is Hormuz opened?

    If so, then its not an extension of the ceasefire. Even if latter problems are to be resolved, its still a meaningful change. Even if its one I oppose.

    If its not, then its utterly craven and pathetic.
  • And the point in the war was
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,962
    edited June 14
    geoffw said:

    Yay! Japan2 Netherlands 2

    A really good game, contrasting styles but both teams showing class.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,962

    And the point in the war was

    Quite often asked by one side in a war, and sometimes both.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,325

    Peace deal reached.

    Bibi will undermine it.


    Damn straight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565

    And the point in the war was

    Epstein.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,862

    And the point in the war was

    It should have been to remove the Ayatollahs.

    But President tiny dick chickened out halfway.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    edited June 14
    Tony Diver
    @Tony_Diver
    EXC: Keir Starmer will not commit more money to the Defence Investment Plan for Dan Jarvis.

    Jarvis is expected to receive the same settlement of £13.5bn that led John Healey to quit the Government in anger last week, despite the new defence secretary’s pledge to ensure the Armed Forces have “what they need”.

    He will instead be told to supplement the existing budget by finding savings at the MoD when fresh negotiations kick off this week, two sources familiar with the situation told
    @Telegraph

    https://x.com/Tony_Diver/status/2066256761569542586

    ===

    Honestly, who cares? Starmer is gone by the time the leaves start to fall.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,562
    So what is Burnham's defence policy ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,562

    NY Times:

    as we understand the details, the deal is really just an extension of the cease-fire for another 60-days. The most important and intractable issues — the status of Iran’s nuclear program and the U.S. sanctions on Iran — are deferred for the next phase of negotiations.

    ie it is bollocks to get through the world cup

    More importantly, do the tankers get sixty days to sail ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,562

    Have stuck some money on Starmer to be replaced by the end of June which I reckon will come in a lot when he’s challenged.

    Also stuck a load on SKS exit this year which feels like free money.

    Implausible. Timelines will be too long.
    Unlikely but plausible. Labour normally keeps nominations open 5-10 days for leadership contests.

    If its a 5 day window, June is possible.

    Thursday 18th Burnham wins by-election
    Friday 19th Burnham challenges/Starmer resigns. Contest begins.
    By Friday 26th Burnham might be only candidate.

    Starmer resigns as PM, Burnham becomes PM.

    Still 2 working days spare for delays.

    Improbable, but plausible.
    That is reflected in the odds, I’ve seen between 40 and 80 (I use Europe standard).

    It seems to be in Burnham’s interest to challenge as soon as possible, so as soon as he does those will come in IMHO.
    It is Burnham's interest not to have a contest because if there is he might have to offer some polices rather than vacuous promises.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    Iran has not yet officially confirmed the cease-fire agreement, but struck a triumphant tone on the state broadcaster, IRIB. “The United States was forced to accept an end to the war,” it declared.

    NY Times blog

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    Which humiliation was worse for the US?

    Vietnam or Iran (2026).

    We will see in the coming years.

    I suspect Iran has longer consequences.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,358
    edited June 14

    https://x.com/tomtugendhat/status/2066148923572650244

    I’m in Dulwich. One of the more expensive areas of London, supposedly a global city, and I’m getting worse mobile phone reception that I did in Kabul a decade ago. I pay for two contracts: @O2 and @EE and neither is reliable so I can’t work.

    Mobile phones are useless in vast areas of Britain and have got worse. You can never work on a train, unlike in France. But we’re spending £4.5 billion in bike lanes and crossings.

    This government is prioritising virtue signalling vanity projects when we need infrastructure urgently.

    Good Tweet. Remove planning requirements for sites in London and this issue will disappear.

    Baffling how anyone who spends any time in London could think their cycle lanes have not been a brilliant infrastructure investment - 1.5 million journeys a day and growing fast. More than double the journeys of the £20 billion Crossrail (which is also great).

    This is obviously the year of moronic dichotomies.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,898

    Roy Hattersley has died.

    Oh, my word. I now feel very old.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,565
    Tom Nichols
    @RadioFreeTom
    ·
    7m
    I, too, authorize the opening of the strait

    https://x.com/RadioFreeTom/status/2066280236686221340
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,039

    Which humiliation was worse for the US?

    Vietnam or Iran (2026).

    We will see in the coming years.

    I suspect Iran has longer consequences.

    Vietnam saw South Vietnam fall to the Communist North, Iran at least just leaves the status quo as was bar one old Ayatollah replaced by a younger one
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,052
    Well the USA lost the war
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,642

    So what is Burnham's defence policy ?

    Not to concede any goals from set pieces.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,052

    Peace deal reached.

    Bibi will undermine it.
    Well yeah. Israel is not a party to it
  • Burnham has a human touch we’ve not seen of a Labour leader since early Blair.

    I think he’d be wise to go for an election, get a reduced majority before things hit the fan.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,052
    HYUFD said:

    Which humiliation was worse for the US?

    Vietnam or Iran (2026).

    We will see in the coming years.

    I suspect Iran has longer consequences.

    Vietnam saw South Vietnam fall to the Communist North, Iran at least just leaves the status quo as was bar one old Ayatollah replaced by a younger one
    Iran is now emboldened and officially controlling the strait of Hormuz so it’s not the status quo. It’s worse.
  • So what is Burnham's defence policy ?

    Not to concede any goals from set pieces.
    England is screwed. But stuck some money on at 9 as I think they’ll probably get a bit further than expected.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,572
    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    Netanyahu told the American president that the IDF will not withdraw from Lebanon, will remain in the positions it currently holds, and will continue to act to thwart the threat from Hezbollah—including the destruction of terror infrastructure and a response to any attack against Israel.
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