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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ICM Scottish independence referendum poll has the NO lead down to just 3 percent
This is getting very tight indeed and will worry Downing Street. All the momentum of the last month or so has been against those wanting to preserve the union.
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The general perception was of a very divided nation. Very sad.
Day to day, separation will make very little tangible difference to many English people's lives, though we'll end up with a very different constitutional settlement. The big tangible effects will be felt in NI and Wales as England disengages even further from both. Intangibly and internationally I suspect we'll all be affected significantly. The break-up will be long and rather fractious. Fascinating times ahead.
Senior Labour figures have privately disclosed that the two party leaders’ offices are in regular contact and that Mr Miliband is determined not to repeat the “mistake” made by Gordon Brown in 2010 of failing to plan for sharing power."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10776524/Ed-Miliband-would-let-Nick-Clegg-keep-his-job-in-Lib-Lab-pact.html
It's pretty clear that those trapped in the westminster bubble have nothing of substance to contribute and are locked into scare stories and whining.
As long as the ridiculous doomsaying and fearmongering keeps up expect more of the same.
That hasn't worked for SLAB since 2007, it won't work now.
The campaign on the ground is also getting ever more telling and the number of volunteers for Yes are even surprising those who fully expected that aspect to be crucial.
Though let's not gloss over the 'brilliance' of the likes of Hammond and the other tories who just don't know any better either and are enthusiastically following the lead of SLAB and Labour.
On topic - good poll for the separatists - and if the polls are out on September 19, we probably know why now - 2011 vs 2010 weighting, as we discussed yesterday (did more than 100,000 Tories die in a single year, I know they tend to be older....but.....) and spiral of silence.......
With the withdrawal of mental health services at an early stage of the dismantling of the NHS (I trust all the Tory Peebies have private health-care insurance) the suicide rate is about to go through the roof. Better criminalise it - and all other forms of self-harm, just to be sure.
gets worse for Labour The ICM European poll has voting intentions of CON 22%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 27% Worrying rise in UKIP figures.
Again, not remotely surprising for those who actually took the time to look at what happened last May when the kipper upswing began to kick in.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
As it keeps having to be pointed out on here for those who still don't get it, look at the labour VI last May when the kipper VI is going up.
That isn't just a straight movement of labour to kipper voting. What it does signify should be far more worrying for labour when they manage to work it out.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHA3nsjk0xE
Never forgetting Robertson is still banging away comically for Labour and 'better together'.
In a little over a month, the European elections may mark Farage’s finest hour. But his cover is at risk of being blown. He is starting to resemble the very politicians he lives to destroy, deeply resentful that his astonishingly easy ride in the media may be coming to an end, outraged that he should have to take to the airwaves to explain how he spends public money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10775656/Nigel-Farage-is-staring-down-the-barrel-of-his-favourite-gun.html
Comments are entertaining......
I genuinely think that one day we may see a statue of him erected in parliament Square as the hero of his age - pretty good for a guy who may never become an MP!
Hope you are all enjoying a peaceful and restful Easter.
The weather in most of Scotland yesterday was positively balmy .... almost as barmy as the ICM poll .... (takes own advice - never over-react to single polls howsoever good or bad)
Meanwhile .... there's important work to be done .... I have to salt the formal gardens and nearby woodland walks with chocolate eggs !!
To be precise almost 50 of the buggers. This morning I've a horde of Clan relation infants ready to rampage and likely do more damage to the gardens than Hanovarian troops after Culloden.
I'm slightly concerned for the wellbeing of the little ones as Conservative baby eaters have been sighted in the environs at the prospect of a glut of potential targets in one place. @Easterross dressed as the Easter Bunny has not been discounted.
PBers .... enjoy your day.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2608676/UKIP-founder-calls-Farage-dim-racist-alcoholic-poll-says-MP.html
Probably sour grapes to a certain extent...
I have no intention of disturbing the peace of Easter Sunday through discordant exchanges on PB.
I wish you and all PBers a reflective and joyful day.
Quango boss appointed by David Cameron resigns after it emerges he was declared bankrupt http://bit.ly/1gWpoAc | Telegraph
I suppose that's one way to have a "bonfire of the Quangos" Pickles used to bang on about.
You yourself admit your 'polling' is based on your own farts so as you seem to realise there isn't actually anything for you to get discordant about Jackarse/'StuartTruth'.
David Cameron 'does God' and puts faith on the table http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/18/david-cameron-god-faith … < treading dangerous waters?
All creatures great and small...
HuffPostUK Pic Desk @HuffPostUKPics 9h
David Cameron stung by jellyfish – Twitter reacts gleefully (PICS) http://huff.to/1iw5axv pic.twitter.com/zdL5WqlPrH
The welfare state is not about to end and neither is the NHS, though both will be further pruned due to finances and demographic changes. Mass emigration (where to?) and mass suicide not very plausible.
England.
*or anything else, for that matter
I'm not saying there aren't labour/kipper switchers, I'm saying why they switch and why other labour voters don't bother to turnout is likely more important for little Ed and Labour.
Clearly Sykes may be daft but he is not stupid.
Looking at the graph again, Labour never regained the support they lost when UKIP surged in late 2012, early 2013. The Conservative's polling (whether or not it's accurate) bounced back but Labour's did not.
The 'Revolt on the Right' hypothesis matches that. They say UKIP has a distinct demographic support, which is/was mostly Labour.
Looking forward to the May locals results!
The will of the people is rarely wrong, so whatever our good folk decide in the Indyref or Euros or 2015, will work out in the long run. Even if it means staying Hanoverian, that other form of rule from Germany that worked out well in the end!
http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2014/04/end-of-part-one.html
The new direction may well slow down the posting rate.
I thought the striking thing about yesterday's Eastleigh poll, was the similarity to the national polls. Swing voters (since the by-election) moved between Con/Lab/UKIP, but only away from the LDs.
Understood it perfectly this time!
No matter where I go or the sort of company I find myself in, the IndyRef is the number one topic of conversation after the weather. I don't think there are "shy NOs", quite the opposite, it is the NOs who are speaking out. However they are rapidly becoming drowned out.
Since the CBI came out for NO 48hrs ago, 3 of its leading members have resigned. If YES wins, CBI Scotland may as well close down. Eck much prefers SCDI anyway.
The one thing we do know is that there is no sign whatsoever of the so called lib dem labour switchers going back to the lib dems and there hasn't been since late 2010. Whether they are considered as lib dem switchers or just labour voters that were on loan to the lib dems, we also know that it was calamity Clegg and his coalition with the tories which caused most of them to jump over to labour en masse in 2010. Again, not something labour did but something caused by the actions of another party.
To be fair oppositions always find it hard to set the narrative and make a positive impact. That should never obviate the possibility that some opposition parties and leaders simply do not impress the voter and can have a negative impact. Labour and little Ed will have to overcome a deluge of "don't let labour ruin it again" campaigning while giving the public something positive to vote for. The electoral math and boundaries still favour them but they are hardly a sure thing in 2015 if the voter simply doesn't rate little Ed very highly. I just don't think they do and I think it's going to matter quite a bit.
But it is not going to happen. This poll is designed to enable OGH to cash in his Betfair Yes chips at a nice profit.
The downside of such attacks of course is that in itself it does nothing to return the "angels in marble" (which is who they've lost to UKIP) to the Tory column. Froth and wind on this comments column we have on a daily basis - but its readers are almost all parti pris and quite unlike the voters the Tories will need in a year's time. What I expect to see is a separate organisation devoted - probably by telephone and social media - to promoting the "don't let Ed in by voting UKIP" message. This organisation will assiduously eschew mentioning the Tories and there will be a huge row about the legitimacy of its costs, which will be OK'd or not depending on the election result.
well if it does go to Indy, it shows the joys of Labour's planning coming home to bite them on the arse. Having done half the nats job for them by driving a wedge between Scotland and England, they're caught out by not being able to motivate their own core voters and facing an implosion.
Truly the stupid party.
Now, these points and others are arguable. But Labour have to argue them from the back foot. Hence why they ignore them and are going on the increasingly odd 'Cost of living crisis'.
As for personal attacks: just look at what people say about Cameron on here! Personal attacks fly in all directions.
If it is a yes then we have what MacMillan described as "events". I think there is also a good chance of another banking run before the election, so plenty to upset the polls. Son Tories think independence nails on their rule in England forever which as we know isn't true. I do think the pressure others have reported on Cameron to resign will be immense. Losing a large chunk of your territory is generally seen as a Bad Thing for national leaders, especially ones who then have to go to the country asking for their endorsement as leader a few months later. Unfair though because the more Cameron speaks in favour of the union the more votes for independence.....
I suspect far more English born Scots would vote YES than Scots born English.
Much of the 'don't let labour ruin it again' stuff will be tailored to the don't knows precisely because little Ed is less than impressive and reassuring.
The piece on 'Red Dems' by C4 News was incredibly revealing since it not only showed that those 2010 lib dems weren't going back to the lib dems but even among labour supporters (like they now clearly were) they almost all had concerns about little Ed and the likes of Balls.
I should have specified that among the things favouring labour wasn't just the boundaries and electoral math but as you so rightly say the kippers who gave up on Cameron. Lest we forget though that's another party causing problems for the tories NOT little Ed or labour. It's a clear pattern and I don't believe it's mere coincidence.
Would a 'vote Farage get Miliband' message be significantly more sucessful than 'the vote Clegg get Brown' one was for the tories? (which they DID run for those who have forgot) Doubtful. However, since raising the EU is likely to cause tory MPs to run about like headless chickens they don't have that much choice if they want to be pro-active against the kippers.
I think it far more likely the Cameroons will never want to speak of Europe again after May and hope the inevitable focus on the economy will just drown out Farage and the kippers in 2015. Which it will to an extent, but not entirely and it's still a pipe dream to think that alone will make the kippers crash back down to their 2010 levels of 3.1%.
It's hard to know. Hopefully people have noticed that I've been a bit of a cheerleader for the coalition, which has probably gone better than most people expected. I'm not sure a pure Conservative economic policy would have been that much different, and certainly not in the general thrust and direction. However there will have been many detail changes - for instance would a Conservative majority government have made the (correct IMHO) changes to the personal allowance?
"And if not, why are you fighting the Lib Dems at this election?"
I'm not. I may even vote Lib Dem if the candidate is good - I don't rate my current MP, Lansley. You see, I'm not a Tory. People wrongly mistake my dislike of the hopeless Miliband and the nasty (current) Labour party for support of the Conservatives. ;-)
Well that has done nothing for my Easter Sunday. Looks like I will have to do the Bleather Together on Wednesday as well.
I am trying to think of an upside but it is not easy. Maybe SLAB will wake up to the danger?
Yes 38%, No 46%
or 45% (+2), 55% (-2), without the Don’t Knows
This makes sense, as in general the electorate have a very short attention span with politicians.
Unfortunately for the denizens of this fine blog, it also means we are hunting for clues, and perusing goat entrails for ideas on the actual shape and content of the campaigns.
The idea that less than 4% of the UK electorate get to change the PM for the rest of us is for the birds.....
About time Labour "did something" to reach their DE voters.
This is "something" isn't it?
:innocent face:
The electorate never got a say in 1990 or 2007
Ed Miliband would let Nick Clegg keep his job in Lib-Lab pact http://tgr.ph/1gWp1ph
Proof, as if it were needed, that little Ed might not be very bright at all. Did he somehow miss just how much 'good' calamity Clegg did for not only the lib dems but the cause of staying IN the EU with his Farage debacle?? Definitely a brilliant 'master strategy' to implicity tie labour's fortunes in with the toxic Clegg then.
Firstly, there's the fact he doesn't need to resign. Cameron's decision to allow a referendum was Hobson's choice; he could not realistically reject the Scottish government's reasonable desire for a referendum. As for Devomax; AFAICR neither Labour nor the Lib Dems were in favour of that option either. If Cameron had wanted it, would he have got it through parliament?
Secondly and more practically, any resignation would be well under a year before a GE, nowhere near long enough for a new Conservative leader to be selected and bed in.
He may resign, but I doubt he will: there's no need.
If the Euros are bad and Indyref goes Yes, he will stay the course. He is a pragmatist, not a quitter.
1. Carlotta's point about choosing the PM. The electorate have no say in this and never have. We each elect an MP, the parties elect a leader, whoever can command a majority gets summoned by Brenda. And if the maths change and said leader gets replaced, they go to see Brenda. The electorate have nothing g to do with it as witnessed by Brown Major Callaghan Home etc etc
2. I'm not sure Cameron would have any option other than resigning. Even if the politics of his survival was viable (and SeanT nails why it isn't) constitutionally it isn't. The joy of our constitutional settlement is its mostly unwritten, which means you are at the whim of the crown and the establishment. The loss of Scotland and all those natural resources isn't something an "I'm sorry" video can fix. He'd be out. And vilified forever. His problem though is he can do little to influence the result due to the appalling toxicity of brand Tory north of the border
3. The Telegraph story is amusing. Classic continuity New Labour leaking to undermine Ed. Even if Clegg survives to the election and doesn't immediately resign at his party's mauling, his inclusion in an D cabinet as DPM would lead to mass resignation of Labour members followed quickly by Ed. Any other LibDem, possibly. Clegg? Very funny....
You could easily argue that Miliband should be more likely to resign. He will have lost a large number of MPs in the long term, and much of the historical and intellectual base of his party. The Better Together campaign is also much more Labour and Lib Dem than Conservative, for the obvious reasons. Then again, I don't like him, and Miliband certainly doesn't have the moral fibre to resign.
However, this is all academic: we'll know soon enough. My suspicion is that when Scotland votes Yes it will be seen as one of the defining moments since the end of WW2, one that will have a tremendous impact on our standing internationally and our view of our place in the world. But maybe I am wrong and no-one will really notice.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/04/easter-polls-offer-further-hope-for-yes/
The fixed term Parliament act would need to be repealed in any case
EDIT: Of course the date of the breakup would not be September either
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/David-Cameron-specials/Politics-N-1z131s4Z1z141hvZ1z141ne/
Happy Easter all!
Much as a resident of Guernsey would enjoy seeing the Norman lands restored, I fear this project completed its work 7 years ago.......
Here's a wild idea. If the Scots vote Yes they should all resign. The useless lot of them. Dave, Ed and Calamity Clegg plus anyone connected with Better Together. And of course Alistair Carmichael. And all MPs in Scottish seats.
We can then pull together a national government for the next 18 months while we get our heads around how we have ended the UK as a state.
Besides 'we' will not have ended the UK as a state if Yes win. The Scots will have decided their own fate, as they have every right to do.
I have no doubt independence will bring about many changes for Scotland - I hope more good than bad - rUK - I'm not so sure.....
But the UK will no longer exist.
Nothing could be worse than a divisive leadership contest 6 months before a GE. So who would be better to lead the party than the Chancellor who has led the country out of the slough of despond?
(p.s.: I disagree. Cameron won't go because it would be irresponsible)
I fear looking downthread that some people STILL don't grasp the enormity of this.
Cam could not remain in charge. And it is quite possible Ed would have to stand down too.
Not sure about delaying the GE, as Sean says. I think a snap GE would be more likely, with the Coalition falling.
Too much to get my head around with a stinking hangover.
* or in the case of SeanT, "not-so-hard"-earned