The brand new official UKIP web site, with whistles and bells, is now up and running.
Not loading for me yet (Virgin media). What's different about it?
Sorry guys, it appears that I have jumped the gun, (I'm always jumping or falling over things, these days). The damn site has vanished again. I've been told that it's have teething troubles. Great new design though, many more things to do and look at. So I guess another few hours of patient waiting.
It's a great compliment to UKIP. It's site has crashed again due to too much traffic. In Italy Farage is enormously popular.
The problem with these bar charts is that they change the scale with each option. If I change from "less credible" to "no difference", the UKIP bar shrinks, even though it's going up from 35% to 42%.
Obviously the scale changes. You're measuring a different thing.
Are you just upset that the UKIP bar doesn't go up every time you click on anything, or what?
Obviously it shouldn't because you are cross comparing between related datasets.
But then accurate use of stastics was never Labour's strong point
Are you saying Mike is posting inaccurate statistics?
I strongly disagree.
No, I am saying you don't know how to read statistics properly.
Mike's statistics are correct - but the presentation could be improved. You thought it was "obvious" that the graphs were correct. My conclusion: either (a) you don't know how to read statistics or (b) you are happy for the statistics to be misleading.
Since I am a Whig at heart, not one of those nasty Hobbesians - JohnO I'm looking at you - I decided to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
He could not see past having his photo on the Downing Street staircase for posterity.
I also read that Clegg wanted to prolong the negotiations with Labour and the Tories for weeks because that is what they do in Europe- so much for the supposed need to form a government quickly because of the economic crisis.
Finding it difficult to work out why the three guys who kidnapped, raped and chained those three girls - for a decade - should not be put to death in the electric chair.
Any ideas?
I think hanging is cleaner - not so much for the person being executed but the witnesses.
UK film director Bryan Forbes, whose work includes 1970s horror classic Stepford Wives, dies aged 86.
I met him once on one of the sets at MGM when they were filming the "Dirty Dozen" and crewing up for the "Battle of Britain". 1966 I believe. He was just passing through, looking up friends, and sizing up actors, no doubt.
Finding it difficult to work out why the three guys who kidnapped, raped and chained those three girls - for a decade - should not be put to death in the electric chair.
Any ideas?
Because the death penalty brutalises the society that inflicts it.
Exclude them from society, by all means, (i.e. exile or prison) but you don't have the right to terminate their existence.
The brand new official UKIP web site, with whistles and bells, is now up and running.
Not loading for me yet (Virgin media). What's different about it?
Sorry guys, it appears that I have jumped the gun, (I'm always jumping or falling over things, these days). The damn site has vanished again. I've been told that it's having teething troubles. Great new design though, many more things to do and look at. So I guess another few hours of patient waiting.
Political party websites must have really odd traffic profiles. Most of the time, no-ones remotely interested, and they get a few hundred political anoraks a day. Then during an election, or just after an election/polling breakthrough like UKIP, they're top of the national news bulletins and 10 million curious voters want to see what all the fuss is about.
'Trust in politicians has hit a new low with just 18% of the public saying they would trust us to tell the truth, compared to 21% who would trust bankers. It is a sad day for us when those who have caused the financial crisis are viewed more highly than those of us trying to find solutions to it.'
And they wonder why people don't vote.
Is there something ironic in the fact that his second sentence contains a lie? There were multiple causes for the financial crisis, not just bankers.
It's all go for Nigel, it's a wonder he has time for a nosh and 40 winks these days.
Now this is interesting: a Government e-petition calling for Nigel Farage to be given a place in any TV debates between party leaders before the next election. At time of writing, it has 11,000-odd signatories. If it gets to 100,000, MPs have to consider having a backbench debate on it. Since Ukip has no MPs, that would be a curious spectacle: MPs debating whether to give an opponent a lot of public exposure. But crossing that symbolic threshold would make it that little bit harder for the bigger parties — and the broadcasters — to keep Mr Farage off our screens come 2015.
FPT "are we generous on benefits? Or iis it that we have a free International Treasure in the NHS?"
Free maternity and childcare is a big part of it but more generally It's that this country used to be exceptionally high-trust so pretty much everything is (or was) based on certain assumptions which don't apply in countries where corruption is normal.
The other big part is a) the odds on getting deported if illegal i.e. practically zero, combined with b) the odds of eventually getting a passport i.e. practically certain.
Illegal immigration is a bigger deal than EU immigration imo but the EU part is politically easier to deal with.
That YouGov poll tonight shows one simple truth namely that the voters do not like divided parties and the sooner my lot (the blues)get it into their thick heads and start behaving like an adult party intent on retaining power and show the self discipline that has to go with that the better. Its absolutely crazy but its a fact that for nigh on 20 years they have been behaving as though the normal rules for political success simply don't apply to them.
Mr. K, I support our exit of the EU and plan on voting UKIP in the next EU elections. But, Farage has absolutely no case to be included in the debates.
[For what it's worth, I really dislike the debates anyway and would prefer them to be axed].
Finding it difficult to work out why the three guys who kidnapped, raped and chained those three girls - for a decade - should not be put to death in the electric chair.
Any ideas?
Because the death penalty brutalises the society that inflicts it.
Exclude them from society, by all means, (i.e. exile or prison) but you don't have the right to terminate their existence.
Yes, we do. The British (and American) state puts people to death all the time - lots of them innocent kids who have done NOTHING. We blow them up with bombs and drones. This is called war.
Yet we flinch at stringing up a few evil disgusting creeps who admit to rape, torture and infanticide?
The hypocrisy is ridiculous. Bring back the noose.
There is a difference between a just war (harking back to the great StTA) and a death penalty. War is the last option, but sometimes necessary.
Interesting that another YG shows UKIP still gnawing away, this time at the Tories again. I'd have expected their post-Thursday bump to start settling. Still think it will soon.
If Shadsy is about: how about a market on "Will UKIP overtake the Conservatives in any YouGov poll before June 30 2015?" It only needs a 5% swing now, which anything from a defection to a by-election could conceivably trigger, and the timing would allow for a possible post-Euros bump.
I don't think it will happen myself - I reckon there's a 20% ceiling on their potential vote. But who knows, really?
Mr. K, I support our exit of the EU and plan on voting UKIP in the next EU elections. But, Farage has absolutely no case to be included in the debates.
[For what it's worth, I really dislike the debates anyway and would prefer them to be axed].
Thats an interesting point of view, Mr dancer. I just love these debates, especially if one of the leaders get tongue tied or lose the thread of their thoughts. Then mayhem in the MSM and all the other news outlets. And rattling good thread for PBers. Also money to be made on betting who the biggest losers are.
That YouGov poll tonight shows one simple truth namely that the voters do not like divided parties and the sooner my lot (the blues)get it into their thick heads and start behaving like an adult party intent on retaining power and show the self discipline that has to go with that the better. Its absolutely crazy but its a fact that for nigh on 20 years they have been behaving as though the normal rules for political success simply don't apply to them.
I do sometimes wonder whether we're not seeing the strange death of Conservative England.
(NB: I mean Conservative as in Tory rather than conservative. On the whole England - I daren't speak for Scotland or Wales - is a small "c" conservative country and Labour - particularly old Labour - is quite a conservative party in its way.)
Interesting that another YG shows UKIP still gnawing away, this time at the Tories again. I'd have expected their post-Thursday bump to start settling. Still think it will soon.
If Shadsy is about: how about a market on "Will UKIP overtake the Conservatives in any YouGov poll before June 30 2015?" It only needs a 5% swing now, which anything from a defection to a by-election could conceivably trigger, and the timing would allow for a possible post-Euros bump.
I don't think it will happen myself - I reckon there's a 20% ceiling on their potential vote. But who knows, really?
A couple of months ago I thought 1/6 no 7/2 yes but now not so sure
Sean T, it's an odd form of prudishness that regards the execution of a convicted murderer as disgraceful, but can cheerfully order the bomardment of a city.
Finding it difficult to work out why the three guys who kidnapped, raped and chained those three girls - for a decade - should not be put to death in the electric chair.
Any ideas?
Because the death penalty brutalises the society that inflicts it.
Exclude them from society, by all means, (i.e. exile or prison) but you don't have the right to terminate their existence.
Yes, we do. The British (and American) state puts people to death all the time - lots of them innocent kids who have done NOTHING. We blow them up with bombs and drones. This is called war.
Yet we flinch at stringing up a few evil disgusting creeps who admit to rape, torture and infanticide?
The hypocrisy is ridiculous. Bring back the noose.
There is a difference between a just war (harking back to the great StTA) and a death penalty. War is the last option, but sometimes necessary.
Iraq? Was that a "Just War"? How many did we kill then? Several thousand? 50,000?
Certainly about a hundred years' worth of convicted murderers and child rapists. And these convicted criminals would of course - unlike the incinerated children of bombed Baghdad - be the beneficiaries of a proper trial before we put them to sleep.
Liberals who wince at capital punishment but are happy to applaud wars are full of shit.
Sean T, it's an odd form of prudishness that regards the execution of a convicted murderer as disgraceful, but can cheerfully order the bomardment of a city.
In the words of Stalin " One death is a tragedy while a million deaths is a statistic ".
Blair would happily sanction an illegal war leading to millions of innocent human deaths while moving heaven and earth to protect the inalienable rights of a fox.
And the mess that article describes is not down wholly to this government as Mr Prior says - "Mr Prior said the decision by the previous Government to allow family doctors to give up responsibility for out-of-hours care had let patients down."
And this - "The visiting fellow at the King’s Fund said the UK had lost one third of its acute hospital beds in the last two decades, leaving services with fewer beds per head of population than any comparable country. He said hospital A&E departments were under “inexorable” pressure because GP surgeries did not provide enough care for older people, often missing conditions like osteoporosis and arthritis, and that the number of beds for patients rehabilitating from hospital care should be doubled."
Note the reference to two decades - during 13 of which we had a Labour government which spent record amounts on the NHS. Cameron has been in power for just 3 years.
And this - "He said that almost half of hospitals are providing care which was either poor, or “not terribly” good. The CQC has identified 45 hospitals which have had problems which date back five years. "
Cameron can certainly be criticised for wasting time on another reorganisation rather than getting to grips with the existing problems. But that things have reached this sort of stage after a period when Labour boasted about how much they were spending on the NHS is an indictment of their stewardship.
Cycle free, a realignment, certainly. IMHO, most Conservative-UKIP detectors from 2010 will grudgingly vote Conservative in 2015, but thereafter, all bets are off.
Matthew Parris said that Nigel Farage really wants to engineer a reverse takeover of the Conservative Party. I'd love him to succeed, although I dare not get too optimistic.
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: another record UKIP high, and Tories' on lowest since 2001. CON 27%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 17%.
Dave has a real problem.
Another extraordinary poll. I wouldn't get too excited though – the Ukip vote is surely soft and will, for the most part, revert Tory at the general election.
Sean- I am a member of the Conservative Party, I'm not rich, came from a very humble background and I can assure you that not in the slightest do I feel Cameron holds me or people like me in contempt. I have no doubt that for sometime he has had a very low view of those in the party who cannot or will not accept that it has got to change and again reach out to a far wider base than it does at present.He has consistently warned tghe part what will happen of it keeps banging on about Europe and now befiore our very eyes we can see it coming to pass.I am absolutely disgusted with the BOO people in our Party.They are no better than the purist militant tendency that did Labour so much harm in the 80's. Tie yourself to UKIP if you want to but you will find out that there is no way it will ever be able to attract enough people to come on board from such a narrow base to win a GE. It took the Reform Party in Canada 10 yrs after they had destroyed the equivalent Conservative Poarty and then the only way they could win power was to start behaving like the old partythey had destroyed!Its bonkers politics its barmy and frankly its made me very very fed up! Cheers.
I probably would vote to remain in the EU because I'm so fearful of change, but Farage's opening there definitely contains a very astute point, and that is that the word 'Europe' has been hijacked by a political project.
It'd be one thing if lazy Brits just labelled the EU as Europe as another form of shorthand, but it really does appear that arch-europhiles see no distinction between the two either in many ways.
Sean- I am a member of the Conservative Party, I'm not rich, came from a very humble background and I can assure you that not in the slightest do I feel Cameron holds me or people like me in contempt. I have no doubt that for sometime he has had a very low view of those in the party who cannot or will not accept that it has got to change and again reach out to a far wider base than it does at present.He has consistently warned tghe part what will happen of it keeps banging on about Europe and now befiore our very eyes we can see it coming to pass.I am absolutely disgusted with the BOO people in our Party.They are no better than the purist militant tendency that did Labour so much harm in the 80's. Tie yourself to UKIP if you want to but you will find out that there is no way it will ever be able to attract enough people to come on board from such a narrow base to win a GE. It took the Reform Party in Canada 10 yrs after they had destroyed the equivalent Conservative Poarty and then the only way they could win power was to start behaving like the old partythey had destroyed!Its bonkers politics its barmy and frankly its made me very very fed up! Cheers.
You're a europhile, aren't you? Need we go on?
Well in fairness Sean you haven't addressed his central point, have you? That a split right is going to destroy itself. Personally, I think you and most other Kippers will trudge back to the Tory camp come a general election, but I may be wrong. Hope I am.
@peterbuss You've got a lot to be fed up about. My commiserations. However if you think Cameron is a conservative (and I call him Cameron and not Cammo in deference to you) you must have funny ideas on what conservatism is about. What you should do is have a good kip, and tomorrow look at the UKIP web site - if it's up - and see and talk to real people conservatives and others concerned at the state of Britain today.
CON 27%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 17%. Problem for Cons. 27 is low Problem for Lab 38 is low Problem for LDs 11 is low Problem for UKIP 17 won't get you anywhere.
Only one of these -UKIP - is outside MOE on recent polling.
Problem for Cons. 27 is low Problem for Lab 38 is low Problem for LDs 11 is low Problem for UKIP 17 won't get you anywhere.
I don't think either Labour or UKIP would see this poll as bad for them.
I thought Lab were alleged to have collected about 10% of 2010 LibDems, so that puts the Labour support down to around the minimum core level. If that is the case they really are not progressing from the dark days of Gordon. They should question why they are so low.
UKIP have to aim higher (and will no doubt score much higher next year in the Euros). As a home of protest votes as well as those who are genuine UKIP stayers, they will know that the share is likely to drop at election time by a large amount. 17% isn't much use to them.
Personally, I think you and most other Kippers will trudge back to the Tory camp come a general election, but I may be wrong. Hope I am.
Most likely will. But that still leaves a huge chunk who won't. It's going to be a very brave punter who backs UKIP going below their 2010 3.1% for 2015. That 3.1% was still enough for some tories to think cost them vital seats and perhaps even a majority.
Problem for Cons. 27 is low Problem for Lab 38 is low Problem for LDs 11 is low Problem for UKIP 17 won't get you anywhere.
I don't think either Labour or UKIP would see this poll as bad for them.
I thought Lab were alleged to have collected about 10% of 2010 LibDems, so that puts the Labour support down to around the minimum core level. If that is the case they really are not progressing from the dark days of Gordon. They should question why they are so low.
UKIP have to aim higher (and will no doubt score much higher next year in the Euros). As a home of protest votes as well as those who are genuine UKIP stayers, they will know that the share is likely to drop at election time by a large amount. 17% isn't much use to them.
This poll gives Labour an 11 point lead over their main electoral rivals, the Conservatives. That's a landslide. With the vote split 4 ways, all parties are going to have what look like low levels of support.
In 2010 UKIP got 3% of the vote. Now they're on 17%, and driving the national debate. Looking good.
I probably would vote to remain in the EU because I'm so fearful of change, but Farage's opening there definitely contains a very astute point, and that is that the word 'Europe' has been hijacked by a political project.
It'd be one thing if lazy Brits just labelled the EU as Europe as another form of shorthand, but it really does appear that arch-europhiles see no distinction between the two either in many ways.
EU: a net 10 billion quid a year in, ah, Protection Money!
I think they have outstanding traffic violations, which in SeanT world warrants the death penalty
Tsk tsk. Let a jury try them first - if they are charged - THEN fry them. That's my position, as against the lefty position of slaughter the foreign children with bombs and drones from a sufficient distance that we can argue it didn't *really* happen, and has nothing to do with us anyway, so we can go on pretending we are "nice".
Quite a lot of people have been convicted by a jury of capital crimes and later proved to be innocent. What is your plan to bring them back from the dead?
the lefty position of slaughter the foreign children with bombs and drones from a sufficient distance that we can argue it didn't *really* happen, and has nothing to do with us anyway, so we can go on pretending we are "nice"
That used to be your position, SeanT. You're hardly a lefty!
Personally, I think you and most other Kippers will trudge back to the Tory camp come a general election, but I may be wrong. Hope I am.
Most likely will. But that still leaves a huge chunk who won't. It's going to be a very brave punter who backs UKIP going below their 2010 3.1% for 2015. That 3.1% was still enough for some tories to think cost them vital seats and perhaps even a majority.
Very true – I can see them polling 5-6% with most of the additional support coming from 2010 Tories.
How is this landlords checking immigration status thing going to work? (Er... it isn't?)
It's going to encourage buy-to-let investors to sell up to first time buyers who are queuing up with their Osborne equity loans. This truly is joined up government at its best.
How is this landlords checking immigration status thing going to work? (Er... it isn't?)
It's not meant to work. It was never a serious policy. It's posturing for gullible tories.
Having been round to look at some rental properties with a friend who's moving to the area for a not that brilliantly well paid job, I'd prefer they did something about landlords charging the earth for disgusting sh*tholes.
Problem for Cons. 27 is low Problem for Lab 38 is low Problem for LDs 11 is low Problem for UKIP 17 won't get you anywhere.
I don't think either Labour or UKIP would see this poll as bad for them.
I thought Lab were alleged to have collected about 10% of 2010 LibDems, so that puts the Labour support down to around the minimum core level. If that is the case they really are not progressing from the dark days of Gordon. They should question why they are so low.
UKIP have to aim higher (and will no doubt score much higher next year in the Euros). As a home of protest votes as well as those who are genuine UKIP stayers, they will know that the share is likely to drop at election time by a large amount. 17% isn't much use to them.
"17% isn't much use to them"
More use than the 12% or so they had the other day but you do have a point.
Given that the Labour vote is a three-legged stool and they betrayed one of those legs i'm thinking a sizable part of the extra needed could come from finding the right form of words that would dislodge or keep home part of that third leg. I think they could experiment in council wards oop north finding the right form of words to do the trick in among all the normal stuff about local hospitals and potholes e.g.
"Grooming and sexual exploitation of children - Ukip councillors will always seek to pressurize the police and local authority into treating this kind of crime as seriously as it deserves."
Very true – I can see them polling 5-6% with most of the additional support coming from 2010 Tories.
6-8% doesn't seem too outlandish to me and that was a prediction made off the back of Rallings and Thrasher before the locals.
Either way that means an MP only comes with ruthless and astute targeting of UKIP resources. Farage must have some idea of where that is after the locals but the EU elections will likely help decide where that is.
How is this landlords checking immigration status thing going to work? (Er... it isn't?)
It's going to encourage buy-to-let investors to sell up to first time buyers who are queuing up with their Osborne equity loans. This truly is joined up government at its best.
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely, the Conservatives will still not get in again while we have UKIP and FPTP. Either they need electoral reform to get through, or they need to merge with UKIP. The latter can only happen if the Conservatives move, as a party, to a Better Off Out position. Lawson has shown them the way. They just need to follow in his path.
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely, the Conservatives will still not get in again while we have UKIP and FPTP. Either they need electoral reform to get through, or they need to merge with UKIP. The latter can only happen if the Conservatives move, as a party, to a Better Off Out position. Lawson has shown them the way. They just need to follow in his path.
If UKIP keeps driving down the Conservatives numbers, the Cameroons will just cave.
We'll have an in/out referendum bill this parliament. Possibly a new leader of the Conservative Party too.
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely
They lost a higher proportion than that between June 2009 and May 2010.
That was when they wanted to vote out Brown. Now they don't see any reason to keep Cameron in Number 10. The dynamics in 2015 will be utterly different.
Having been round to look at some rental properties with a friend who's moving to the area for a not that brilliantly well paid job, I'd prefer they did something about landlords charging the earth for disgusting sh*tholes.
There was talk of some kind of action against problem landlords early on in the coalition but I don't think it was ever much more than talk and primarily from the lib dems. It then got derailed by the bedroom tax into encouraging swaps etc.
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely, the Conservatives will still not get in again while we have UKIP and FPTP. Either they need electoral reform to get through, or they need to merge with UKIP. The latter can only happen if the Conservatives move, as a party, to a Better Off Out position. Lawson has shown them the way. They just need to follow in his path.
If UKIP keeps driving down the Conservatives numbers, the Cameroons will just cave.
We'll have an in/out referendum bill this parliament. Possibly a new leader of the Conservative Party too.
Isn't the perjorative "Cameroon" racist against the good people of, er, Cameroon?
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely, the Conservatives will still not get in again while we have UKIP and FPTP. Either they need electoral reform to get through, or they need to merge with UKIP. The latter can only happen if the Conservatives move, as a party, to a Better Off Out position. Lawson has shown them the way. They just need to follow in his path.
If UKIP keeps driving down the Conservatives numbers, the Cameroons will just cave.
True enough - it's incredible how little spine the Cameroon tories appear to have, or maybe they really are just so divorced from the grassroots they cannot fight off an insurgency. Cameron's main problem for the first two years was not being able to control his ministers, but he cannot control anything at the moment, and if he cannot delivery anything, it doesn't even matter how good he is or not.
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely, the Conservatives will still not get in again while we have UKIP and FPTP. Either they need electoral reform to get through, or they need to merge with UKIP. The latter can only happen if the Conservatives move, as a party, to a Better Off Out position. Lawson has shown them the way. They just need to follow in his path.
If UKIP keeps driving down the Conservatives numbers, the Cameroons will just cave.
We'll have an in/out referendum bill this parliament. Possibly a new leader of the Conservative Party too.
Isn't the perjorative "Cameroon" racist against the good people of, er, Cameroon?
Not entirely sure but i don't think it was a perjorative at the start?
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely, the Conservatives will still not get in again while we have UKIP and FPTP. Either they need electoral reform to get through, or they need to merge with UKIP. The latter can only happen if the Conservatives move, as a party, to a Better Off Out position. Lawson has shown them the way. They just need to follow in his path.
If UKIP keeps driving down the Conservatives numbers, the Cameroons will just cave.
We'll have an in/out referendum bill this parliament. Possibly a new leader of the Conservative Party too.
Isn't the perjorative "Cameroon" racist against the good people of, er, Cameroon?
Not entirely sure but i don't think it was a perjorative at the start?
I don't think so, but it certainly is now. The tide has turned against them. LIke being a Blairite.
Interestingly, in some parts of the country (particularly those bits soon to be part of another country) the word Tory is in itself returned to its original perjoritive meaning, if not with the same definition (as opposed to merely being pejoritive among some in the country). It's gone in a circle.
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely, the Conservatives will still not get in again while we have UKIP and FPTP. Either they need electoral reform to get through, or they need to merge with UKIP. The latter can only happen if the Conservatives move, as a party, to a Better Off Out position. Lawson has shown them the way. They just need to follow in his path.
If UKIP keeps driving down the Conservatives numbers, the Cameroons will just cave.
We'll have an in/out referendum bill this parliament. Possibly a new leader of the Conservative Party too.
Isn't the perjorative "Cameroon" racist against the good people of, er, Cameroon?
It's a local word, for local people. Nothing to do with biscuits at all.
Dear me, this is politicalbetting.com. It's supposed to be full of wise old birds who coolly assess odds, take the long view, and don't get fooled into putting their money into temporary fads, even if there's a temporary polling surge. Such as these three classics:
Calm down, dears. Note in particular that the last of those bubbles I've cited needs to stay inflated much longer than the other two to affect anything.
How is this landlords checking immigration status thing going to work? (Er... it isn't?)
I expect it's going to be one more bit of paper (copy of birth certificate, passport or visa stamp) they already ask you for (bank statement, utility bill, proof of employment or guarantor letter) when agreeing to a tenancy......imagine - having to provide 5 bits of paper instead of 4!
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely, the Conservatives will still not get in again while we have UKIP and FPTP. Either they need electoral reform to get through, or they need to merge with UKIP. The latter can only happen if the Conservatives move, as a party, to a Better Off Out position. Lawson has shown them the way. They just need to follow in his path.
If UKIP keeps driving down the Conservatives numbers, the Cameroons will just cave.
We'll have an in/out referendum bill this parliament. Possibly a new leader of the Conservative Party too.
Isn't the perjorative "Cameroon" racist against the good people of, er, Cameroon?
Not entirely sure but i don't think it was a perjorative at the start?
I don't think so, but it certainly is now. The tide has turned against them.
Well it has on here. But the Cameroon public is at least keeping the Tories in the game. The soft-right is worth more to them than the fringe headbangers we see so many of on PB.
Reselection time for London boroughs... Labour is drawing up, at borough levels, the list of approved council candidates...
first Labour's report casualty is in Redbridge where a Cllr is not re-put on the list..
I believe (but I don't have official data, it's just an impression from following things from the outside) that on Labour side deselections are more widespread than in London than in other parts of the country. Probably because of CLPs with high membership and full of ambitious people.
In 2010 Barking probably had the highest number of deselections followed by Southwark. Waltham Forest, Redbridge, Haringay and Newham had their few. In some of these areas it's pretty standard. For ex in Waltham Forst they once deselect Cllr Stella Creasy.
Sean- I am a member of the Conservative Party, I'm not rich, came from a very humble background and I can assure you that not in the slightest do I feel Cameron holds me or people like me in contempt. I have no doubt that for sometime he has had a very low view of those in the party who cannot or will not accept that it has got to change and again reach out to a far wider base than it does at present.He has consistently warned tghe part what will happen of it keeps banging on about Europe and now befiore our very eyes we can see it coming to pass.I am absolutely disgusted with the BOO people in our Party.They are no better than the purist militant tendency that did Labour so much harm in the 80's. Tie yourself to UKIP if you want to but you will find out that there is no way it will ever be able to attract enough people to come on board from such a narrow base to win a GE. It took the Reform Party in Canada 10 yrs after they had destroyed the equivalent Conservative Poarty and then the only way they could win power was to start behaving like the old partythey had destroyed!Its bonkers politics its barmy and frankly its made me very very fed up! Cheers.
Describing the working class as "life's losers" is really reaching out to a far wider base than it does at present.
Cameron's turned the Conservative party into an organisation where belonging to the right family or going to the right school is the key to advancement, a shameful tribute to a country in which economic and social mobility is in steep decline.
Even if UKIP lose two thirds of their current vote share by the next general election, which seems unlikely, the Conservatives will still not get in again while we have UKIP and FPTP. Either they need electoral reform to get through, or they need to merge with UKIP. The latter can only happen if the Conservatives move, as a party, to a Better Off Out position. Lawson has shown them the way. They just need to follow in his path.
If UKIP keeps driving down the Conservatives numbers, the Cameroons will just cave.
We'll have an in/out referendum bill this parliament. Possibly a new leader of the Conservative Party too.
Isn't the perjorative "Cameroon" racist against the good people of, er, Cameroon?
Not entirely sure but i don't think it was a perjorative at the start?
I don't think so, but it certainly is now. The tide has turned against them.
Well it has on here. But the Cameroon public is at least keeping the Tories in the game. The soft-right is worth more to them than the fringe headbangers we see so many of on PB.
The soft right is a losing number. They don't want a losing number, they want a winning number.
Comments
Mike's statistics are correct - but the presentation could be improved. You thought it was "obvious" that the graphs were correct. My conclusion: either (a) you don't know how to read statistics or (b) you are happy for the statistics to be misleading.
Since I am a Whig at heart, not one of those nasty Hobbesians - JohnO I'm looking at you
I also read that Clegg wanted to prolong the negotiations with Labour and the Tories for weeks because that is what they do in Europe- so much for the supposed need to form a government quickly because of the economic crisis.
I met him once on one of the sets at MGM when they were filming the "Dirty Dozen" and crewing up for the "Battle of Britain". 1966 I believe. He was just passing through, looking up friends, and sizing up actors, no doubt.
Exclude them from society, by all means, (i.e. exile or prison) but you don't have the right to terminate their existence.
I realise you can't make any promises, but that would be very welcome indeed.
Now this is interesting: a Government e-petition calling for Nigel Farage to be given a place in any TV debates between party leaders before the next election.
At time of writing, it has 11,000-odd signatories. If it gets to 100,000, MPs have to consider having a backbench debate on it.
Since Ukip has no MPs, that would be a curious spectacle: MPs debating whether to give an opponent a lot of public exposure. But crossing that symbolic threshold would make it that little bit harder for the bigger parties — and the broadcasters — to keep Mr Farage off our screens come 2015.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100215846/e-petition-give-nigel-farage-a-place-in-the-leaders-debates-before-the-election/
Portillo - We don’t share Europe’s vision. So I want out.
Odds of another political comeback?
"are we generous on benefits? Or iis it that we have a free International Treasure in the NHS?"
Free maternity and childcare is a big part of it but more generally It's that this country used to be exceptionally high-trust so pretty much everything is (or was) based on certain assumptions which don't apply in countries where corruption is normal.
The other big part is a) the odds on getting deported if illegal i.e. practically zero, combined with b) the odds of eventually getting a passport i.e. practically certain.
Illegal immigration is a bigger deal than EU immigration imo but the EU part is politically easier to deal with.
[For what it's worth, I really dislike the debates anyway and would prefer them to be axed].
Coalition 38%
Labour 38%
If Shadsy is about: how about a market on "Will UKIP overtake the Conservatives in any YouGov poll before June 30 2015?" It only needs a 5% swing now, which anything from a defection to a by-election could conceivably trigger, and the timing would allow for a possible post-Euros bump.
I don't think it will happen myself - I reckon there's a 20% ceiling on their potential vote. But who knows, really?
(NB: I mean Conservative as in Tory rather than conservative. On the whole England - I daren't speak for Scotland or Wales - is a small "c" conservative country and Labour - particularly old Labour - is quite a conservative party in its way.)
http://youtu.be/-0wAA8RKzvc
Blair would happily sanction an illegal war leading to millions of innocent human deaths while moving heaven and earth to protect the inalienable rights of a fox.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/332241537637433344/photo/1
And this - "The visiting fellow at the King’s Fund said the UK had lost one third of its acute hospital beds in the last two decades, leaving services with fewer beds per head of population than any comparable country.
He said hospital A&E departments were under “inexorable” pressure because GP surgeries did not provide enough care for older people, often missing conditions like osteoporosis and arthritis, and that the number of beds for patients rehabilitating from hospital care should be doubled."
Note the reference to two decades - during 13 of which we had a Labour government which spent record amounts on the NHS. Cameron has been in power for just 3 years.
And this - "He said that almost half of hospitals are providing care which was either poor, or “not terribly” good. The CQC has identified 45 hospitals which have had problems which date back five years. "
Cameron can certainly be criticised for wasting time on another reorganisation rather than getting to grips with the existing problems. But that things have reached this sort of stage after a period when Labour boasted about how much they were spending on the NHS is an indictment of their stewardship.
Matthew Parris said that Nigel Farage really wants to engineer a reverse takeover of the Conservative Party. I'd love him to succeed, although I dare not get too optimistic.
I had expected "Fops Fold on Dorries"....but there you go....
Farage giving a faraging to the EU parliament earlier today.
http://s3.hubimg.com/u/209782_f520.jpg
Alex Ferguson,Alex Ferguson,Alex Ferguson,Alex Ferguson,Alex Ferguson,Alex Ferguson..
Alex Ferguson,Alex Ferguson.
SQUIRREL!!!
*tears of laughter etc.*
Problem for Cons. 27 is low
Problem for Lab 38 is low
Problem for LDs 11 is low
Problem for UKIP 17 won't get you anywhere.
This is the beginning of the end for the coalition
A minimalist Queen's speech marks the failure of Cameron and Clegg's project. From here on, they'll go separate ways
It'd be one thing if lazy Brits just labelled the EU as Europe as another form of shorthand, but it really does appear that arch-europhiles see no distinction between the two either in many ways.
Claim that two out of the three brothers were not involved in the Cleveland abductions.
Mail link below
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2321480/Cleveland-kidnapping-Ariel-Castro-charged-counts-kidnapping-counts-rape-confesses-brothers-dont-face-charges.html
You've got a lot to be fed up about. My commiserations. However if you think Cameron is a conservative (and I call him Cameron and not Cammo in deference to you) you must have funny ideas on what conservatism is about. What you should do is have a good kip, and tomorrow look at the UKIP web site - if it's up - and see and talk to real people conservatives and others concerned at the state of Britain today.
UKIP have to aim higher (and will no doubt score much higher next year in the Euros). As a home of protest votes as well as those who are genuine UKIP stayers, they will know that the share is likely to drop at election time by a large amount. 17% isn't much use to them.
Most likely will. But that still leaves a huge chunk who won't. It's going to be a very brave punter who backs UKIP going below their 2010 3.1% for 2015. That 3.1% was still enough for some tories to think cost them vital seats and perhaps even a majority.
In 2010 UKIP got 3% of the vote. Now they're on 17%, and driving the national debate. Looking good.
http://t.co/4FH2Oryd8I
More use than the 12% or so they had the other day but you do have a point.
Given that the Labour vote is a three-legged stool and they betrayed one of those legs i'm thinking a sizable part of the extra needed could come from finding the right form of words that would dislodge or keep home part of that third leg. I think they could experiment in council wards oop north finding the right form of words to do the trick in among all the normal stuff about local hospitals and potholes e.g.
"Grooming and sexual exploitation of children - Ukip councillors will always seek to pressurize the police and local authority into treating this kind of crime as seriously as it deserves."
something like that
Either way that means an MP only comes with ruthless and astute targeting of UKIP resources. Farage must have some idea of where that is after the locals but the EU elections will likely help decide where that is.
We'll have an in/out referendum bill this parliament. Possibly a new leader of the Conservative Party too.
http://www.icmresearch.com/pdfs/2009_may_guardian_poll.pdf
http://www.icmresearch.com/pdfs/2009_june_guardian_poll.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010#2009
Interestingly, in some parts of the country (particularly those bits soon to be part of another country) the word Tory is in itself returned to its original perjoritive meaning, if not with the same definition (as opposed to merely being pejoritive among some in the country). It's gone in a circle.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/16/nick-clegg-guardian-icm-poll-pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/30/rick-perry-polls_n_942432.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/04/nigel-farage-changes-british-politics
Calm down, dears. Note in particular that the last of those bubbles I've cited needs to stay inflated much longer than the other two to affect anything.
Labour is drawing up, at borough levels, the list of approved council candidates...
first Labour's report casualty is in Redbridge where a Cllr is not re-put on the list..
I believe (but I don't have official data, it's just an impression from following things from the outside) that on Labour side deselections are more widespread than in London than in other parts of the country. Probably because of CLPs with high membership and full of ambitious people.
In 2010 Barking probably had the highest number of deselections followed by Southwark. Waltham Forest, Redbridge, Haringay and Newham had their few. In some of these areas it's pretty standard. For ex in Waltham Forst they once deselect Cllr Stella Creasy.
Cameron's turned the Conservative party into an organisation where belonging to the right family or going to the right school is the key to advancement, a shameful tribute to a country in which economic and social mobility is in steep decline.