Why understanding the alternative vote system is so important – politicalbetting.com
Why understanding the alternative vote system is so important – politicalbetting.com
Whilst I do think Sir Keir Starmer will remain Labour leader in 2026 one of the reasons I thought if he was ousted this year his successor would be Angela Rayner was that the Labour party uses the alternative vote system to elect their leaders.
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Trump is fucking nuts pt.94
He’s played a great hand terribly and been mugged off by Bibi, an incredibly shrewd man. As much as I dislike his politics he is shrewd.
‘ BREAKING: President Trump tells Iran “open the f***** Strait of Hormuz, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell.”
Trump declares Tuesday as “power plant and bridge day.”’
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2040766367486427208?s=61
It seems to keep falling. But is never Picked Up.
It is starting to remind me of those films where cars drivers furiously change up. But never down. So by the end, they are driving in 135th gear.
Or perhaps it’s like that chap with the castle and the swamp - they keep building new Londons which fall into a swamp?
Anyone know??
https://x.com/qalaatalmudiq/status/2040771976948580539
➡️ Ref: 20.9% (-1.4)
🔵 Con: 20.5% (+0.2)
🔴 Lab: 17.0% (-0.4)
🟠 Lib: 9.2% (-1.9)
Poll: @LordAPolls, 26-30 Mar (+/- vs 19-23 Feb)
The alternatives to Starmer were Long-Bailey and Nandy.
The alternative to Badenoch was Jenrick.
It's just possible that both party memberships learned their lessons, though probably only temporarily.
Toast the fuckin’ king you crazy bastards. Praise be to Wotan!
I suspect had Jenrick beaten Badenoch the Conservatives would have been way ahead of the Farascists. There would be no need for Reform.
https://youtu.be/XLTnacYvvg4?si=RAkGE3waCMte2lfP
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-March-2026-Full-tables.xls
Sun Tzu - The Art of War
#GoodMuslim
The 3% on defence crowd need to be resisted, as well as the "25 warships" thing. Let's get what we have working first before we start to consider expanding it. If that requires some extra funding, fine - but it certainly should not be the MOD overseeing that, because they'll try to buy something else we can't staff or maintain.
New photo from the White House:
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2040795218404909176
Nandy is an excellent communicator, always good on programmes like QT, often not got the roles she deserves but I don't think she's leadership material.
Long Bailey, I cannot think of a single redeeming factor. Should have been turfed out ages ago with Burgon, Mccarthy, Abbot and a few others
The reason that it provides so little in the way of equipment is that we try to do too many things (nuclear deterrent, carriers, Ajax, GCAP etc) within an inadequate budget.
There are also a lot of fixed costs which have to be covered within that £68bn before a penny is spent on new capacity. Any additional spending isn't touched by that.
The marginal benefit of a few extra billion would be considerable (though you are quite correct to criticise the MoD's procurement competence).
#gotallthebigcallsright
But it's arguably a fair representation of how the services think about procurement.
Trump now says there’s a good chance of a deal before the deadline to carpet bomb Iran !
If our budget were (say) £20bn a year higher, the current structure of the armed services, and the number of things we're trying to do simply wouldn't look as irrational as it currently does. (We could even afford just to write off Ajax.)
There are certainly issues of competence, and refusal to move with the times (one reason Ukraine refuses to train its soldiers outside of Ukraine any more), but the irrationality starts with the politicians, in insisting we can do stuff, without providing the funds for it.
Note that the funding plan, promised last summer, is still not published. How could the MoD possibly even begin to do sensible stuff (even if it were capable if that) in those circumstances ?
As a simple example, the defence of the UK does not require the army to have expensive new armour. It does require air defence against missile and drone threats.
Beyond that simple level, it gets complicated; and the less money there is, the more complicated it gets.
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(I'll post this again tomorrow - Monday, only.)
I missed the lamb discussion earlier, but I too had lamb for lunch. A rather fabulous Scotch pie...
I also saw this earlier, and can't decide if it's genius or insanity
The sheep think the job of the shepherd is to stop the wolf from eating them
Then they realise the shepherd is the one who will eat them
Totally agree with TSE's thread, by the way.
* Caveat emptor, I haven't been a member for fifteen years.
“Mahdi Tabatabaei, an aide at Iran’s President’s Office, says the Strait of Hormuz “will be reopened” when “a portion of transit tolls is used to compensate for all the damage caused” by the war.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have previously raised the possibility of imposing transit fees or tolls on vessels using the strait.”
Is this a softening of the Iranian position ? Or am I being overly optimistic?
➡️ Ref: 20.9% (-1.4)
🔵 Con: 20.5% (+0.2)
🔴 Lab: 17.0% (-0.4)
🟠 Lib: 9.2% (-1.9)
Poll: @LordAPolls, 26-30 Mar (+/- vs 19-23 Feb)
For Trump, every day is close to heaven, which makes it even crazier than he is so angry all the time.
https://archive.is/20260405061129/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/world/europe/us-military-seeks-expansion-in-greenland.html
Ashcroft doesn't do anything subtle - the polling simply ignores those who DK or WNV so a sample size of 5,447 is reduced immediately by 1,972. In April 2025, the numbers were:
Labour: 27%
Conservatives: 24%
Reform: 21%
Greens: 11%
Liberal Democrats: 10%
A 10% switch from Labour to Green but otherwise not a lot of change from a year ago. The NEV of the 2025 locals was Reform 30%, Labour 20%, LD 17%, Conservative 15%, Green 11%.
Can we extrapolate any of this to the 2026 locals and the possible NEV? From where I'm sitting, it looks like Reform still on top though perhaps nearer 25% than 30% and a four way (ooer) for the other parties in which you could conceive of any of Greens, Labour, Conservatives and LDs finishing from second to fifth but statistcally pretty much a dead heat.
The key element for me will be how many seats will the Greens contest.
But certainly something for the Boob Whisperer and his devotees to celebrate.
So eg Chagos. Leaving aside the nonsense people spout about actual arrangement, Chagos has zero strategic relevance for the UK. Also Cyprus.
I accept I have no idea what I'm talking about.
It wouldn't surprise me if Trump fell into that category.
This was only 6 months prior to the 2019 GE. Jo Swinson declared she would be PM.
She ended up losing her seat…
https://x.com/PeterShoreite/status/2040763668950925330?s=20
1. Reform
2. LD
3. Green
4. Toss up between Lab and Con
Her communication skills are excellent.
She actually answers questions
She's in the top 3 or 4 communicators in the Party.
I just don't think she could handle Party Leadership
"Fuck this shit"
The UK is a highly globalised and interconnected country. We need stability and secure trade routes worldwide to prosper, and we cannot defend ourselves or our interests on the Kent coast like it's still 1670.
Played just about every hand spot on.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/05/trump-holocaust-museum-00859274?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it
In the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term, the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington quietly removed from its website educational resources about American racism and canceled a workshop about the “fragility of democracy.”
The changes, which have not been previously reported, came as Trump cracked down on what he called “corrosive ideology” at the Smithsonian Institution, demanding a slew of alterations at the world’s largest museum network to more closely align its content with his worldview. They also coincided with the administration’s efforts to remove content related to diversity, equity and inclusion from federal websites...
Trump is actually going to do more for climate change and the Green Transition than Miliband could ever dream of.
The other thing this does is force other countries to deal with Iran on a bilateral basis when they might not otherwise do so. This includes consuming countries like India and China and also producing countries in the GCC such as Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.