On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
"Michael Gove admits crush on Shabana Mahmood Former Tory minister says he spends ‘quite a lot’ of internet browsing time looking at images of Home Secretary"
"Michael Gove admits crush on Shabana Mahmood Former Tory minister says he spends ‘quite a lot’ of internet browsing time looking at images of Home Secretary"
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
Fox News can confirm that the 2nd crew member of the downed F15E fighter jet has been rescued and he and the members of the rescue team that extracted him from behind enemy lines in Iran are all safely out of Iran. That according to two senior US officials and multiple well placed sources in the region. The Weapons Systems Officer ejected along with the pilot when their F15E Strike Eagle they were flying was struck Thursday night (early Friday local time) in southwest Iran.
The WSO used the SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape) training to evade capture, hiding on an elevated ridge after hiking away from the wreckage and putting out an emergency beacon.) US Special Operations rescue forces to include PJs (United States Air Force Pararescuemen (PJs) and many layers of elite rescue forces took part in the complex, layered mission to both find the crew member and also keep the Iranian forces who were hunting the American weapons system operator at bay. There are videos that have appeared from local eyewitnesses that show what appear to have been injured and dead Iranian members of the IRGC and Basij who were looking for the downed American crew member. Fox has learned there was fighting on the ground but no Americans killed during the operation. “It was a very complex operation to retrieve the downed service member,” a well placed source briefed on the operation told me. Many different branches of the US military were involved in the rescue.
"In a final twist after the weapons officer was rescued, two transport planes that would carry the commandos and the airmen to safety got stuck at a remote base in Iran. Commanders decided to fly in three new planes to extract all the U.S. military personnel and the airmen, and they blew up the two disabled planes rather than have them fall into Iranian hands." -NYT
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
Davey is the St Augustine of Westminster. He wants PR but not just yet. Davey warns of the danger of Nigel Farage under FPTP but is silent on the great unfairness highlighted above where his own party got 67 more seats on half a million fewer votes than Reform.
(Ironically, of course FPTP has delivered a proportional result to the LibDems: 11 per cent of the seats on 12 per cent of the votes.)
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
Davey is the St Augustine of Westminster. He wants PR but not just yet. Davey warns of the danger of Nigel Farage under FPTP but is silent on the great unfairness highlighted above where his own party got 67 more seats on half a million fewer votes than Reform.
(Ironically, of course FPTP has delivered a proportional result to the LibDems: 11 per cent of the seats on 12 per cent of the votes.)
Do you have a source for your claim that " He wants PR but not just yet"?
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
Davey is the St Augustine of Westminster. He wants PR but not just yet. Davey warns of the danger of Nigel Farage under FPTP but is silent on the great unfairness highlighted above where his own party got 67 more seats on half a million fewer votes than Reform.
(Ironically, of course FPTP has delivered a proportional result to the LibDems: 11 per cent of the seats on 12 per cent of the votes.)
What exactly do you want him to do? He's advocated for PR throughout his career and successive governments (and indeed the electorate if you count the AV referendum) have ignored it. Why are you so annoyed that in 2024 he did well playing the game by the rules that his opponents chose? If he now voted against PR in a Commons vote then that would be hypocrisy but it's unhinged to expect him to operate as if PR already exists.
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
Davey is the St Augustine of Westminster. He wants PR but not just yet. Davey warns of the danger of Nigel Farage under FPTP but is silent on the great unfairness highlighted above where his own party got 67 more seats on half a million fewer votes than Reform.
(Ironically, of course FPTP has delivered a proportional result to the LibDems: 11 per cent of the seats on 12 per cent of the votes.)
Do you have a source for your claim that " He wants PR but not just yet"?
I do not think that is true.
As I said, he could offer some of his PMQ slots to the Greens or Reform who were both shafted by FPTP. He could lobby for them to have greater representation on committees.
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
Davey is the St Augustine of Westminster. He wants PR but not just yet. Davey warns of the danger of Nigel Farage under FPTP but is silent on the great unfairness highlighted above where his own party got 67 more seats on half a million fewer votes than Reform.
(Ironically, of course FPTP has delivered a proportional result to the LibDems: 11 per cent of the seats on 12 per cent of the votes.)
Do you have a source for your claim that " He wants PR but not just yet"?
I do not think that is true.
As I said, he could offer some of his PMQ slots to the Greens or Reform who were both shafted by FPTP. He could lobby for them to have greater representation on committees.
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
Davey is the St Augustine of Westminster. He wants PR but not just yet. Davey warns of the danger of Nigel Farage under FPTP but is silent on the great unfairness highlighted above where his own party got 67 more seats on half a million fewer votes than Reform.
(Ironically, of course FPTP has delivered a proportional result to the LibDems: 11 per cent of the seats on 12 per cent of the votes.)
What exactly do you want him to do? He's advocated for PR throughout his career and successive governments (and indeed the electorate if you count the AV referendum) have ignored it. Why are you so annoyed that in 2024 he did well playing the game by the rules that his opponents chose? If he now voted against PR in a Commons vote then that would be hypocrisy but it's unhinged to expect him to operate as if PR already exists.
I think it is the imminent prospect of Labour having fewer seats than the Lib Dems that is bothering him, but rather than consider why Starmer is so unpopular, he wants to lash out.
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
Davey is the St Augustine of Westminster. He wants PR but not just yet. Davey warns of the danger of Nigel Farage under FPTP but is silent on the great unfairness highlighted above where his own party got 67 more seats on half a million fewer votes than Reform.
(Ironically, of course FPTP has delivered a proportional result to the LibDems: 11 per cent of the seats on 12 per cent of the votes.)
Do you have a source for your claim that " He wants PR but not just yet"?
I do not think that is true.
As I said, he could offer some of his PMQ slots to the Greens or Reform who were both shafted by FPTP. He could lobby for them to have greater representation on committees.
PR but not just yet surely covers it.
So you do not?
You know who St Augustine was, right? Not the old maternity hospital.
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
... for about five minutes until a couple of wet Tory backbenchers defect and force a new election.
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
The LibDems have not said very much about proportional representation since the general election.
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
Davey is the St Augustine of Westminster. He wants PR but not just yet. Davey warns of the danger of Nigel Farage under FPTP but is silent on the great unfairness highlighted above where his own party got 67 more seats on half a million fewer votes than Reform.
(Ironically, of course FPTP has delivered a proportional result to the LibDems: 11 per cent of the seats on 12 per cent of the votes.)
What exactly do you want him to do? He's advocated for PR throughout his career and successive governments (and indeed the electorate if you count the AV referendum) have ignored it. Why are you so annoyed that in 2024 he did well playing the game by the rules that his opponents chose? If he now voted against PR in a Commons vote then that would be hypocrisy but it's unhinged to expect him to operate as if PR already exists.
I think it is the imminent prospect of Labour having fewer seats than the Lib Dems that is bothering him, but rather than consider why Starmer is so unpopular, he wants to lash out.
Are you talking about the poster who was the first to forecast Starmer's departure before the next election, and who frequently rationalised Starmer's actions or inactions by describing him as a lawyer not a politician and a technocrat who believes in nothing, before these themes were taken up by the media?
Admittedly I might also have derided the Hon Member for Falling in the Water as another fatuous and vacuous figure whose principles are deployed only when convenient.
On Ashcroft's poll according to Nowcast Kemi would likely be PM with most seats in a hung parliament, though she might have to make Nigel her Deputy PM.
Conservatives 172 Reform 151 Greens 116 LDs 61 Labour 58 SNP 45 PC 18
Nah. Even if you had a reliable Reform partner you’d be barely a majority government and would be hostage to the nutters.
Let the left try to stitch together 5 parties… or have another election when they will be in complete disarray as they would with those numbers
The conventional wisdom is you can't win most seats at a General Election then say, "nah, not my job" when it comes to trying to form a government, or you'll be punished hard at the further election. It's effectively saying you don't want to govern when given the chance, which begs the question as to what the point is voting for you.
I think the conventional wisdom is probably broadly right on that. In particular, Farage would be saying "let's tango" in these circumstances, and Badenoch would be punished very hard, losing votes both to him and the Lib Dems, if she said, "we're largest party, but I think I'll just sit this one out for tactical reasons" - it's not very credible out in the country.
Disastrous poll for the SNP, losing 7 seats on those they got in 2021. Of course Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 on that but he has made clear he would do so regardless anyway.
Given Reform currently have 0 seats at Holyrood, 16 MSPs is still by far the biggest projected gain for any party in Scotland
I'm sure they'd be delighted with such an outcome, rightfully so, even if it is down on what the heights might have suggested.
I'd love if the SNP faced such a situation, but I'm wary of expecting such an outcome.
Given Swinney has been going on all year he needs 68 seats for an SNP majority and a mandate for indyref2 it would be a terrible result for him actually!
Morning all. On the Ashcroft poll, whilst acknowledging he is non BPC etc, the stickiest out feature from the tables aside from Ref lose the outright lead is that before rounding the Greens are top for the first time ever in a UK poll.
Unsubstantiated social media rumours. Don’t put your faith in unsubstantiated social media rumours.
It came about because an engagement was cancelled and nobody would say why (so twitter put 2+2 and got he is in hospital)...well we now know the special ops team have gone into Iran and got their man out. I think perhaps that might be the real reason the engagement was cancelled. That plus it looks like the US have if Trump "truths" are correct have taken out more Iranian leadership.
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Great poll for Kemi and Polanski, the Tories and Greens tied for first with Reform.
Terrible poll for Starmer with Labour 4% behind them effectively 4th and not great for Davey either with LDs on 9%
Ashcroft
Daily Mail
5 days late for the Sunday version
When was the last time Ashcroft or the Mail got anything right.
Tories can spend Easter Sunday politically masturbating over an outlier client poll in the Mail
FFS
Utter denial
Tories 5th or 6th in Scotland 5th or 6th in Wales
4th or 5th in English Locals
Thats the actual reality
You are so easily wound up and yes it's Lord Ashcroft and easily dismissed
However, Reform do seem to be losing some of their shine and long may it continue
I don't disagree Reform are losing some of their lustre in Opinion Polling but the truth will only be known after May 7th on that score.
Labour are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Tories are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Greens are opinion polling between 14 and 20.
My amusement is based on the fact that Ashcroft is a completely busted flush as far as polling is concerned, even the Client , The Mail has to go back to 2016 to find a credible comment on his Polling and this is what it is.
A Daily Mail client "nudge and nurdle" to have optimum benefot for Right Wing Parties.
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Great poll for Kemi and Polanski, the Tories and Greens tied for first with Reform.
Terrible poll for Starmer with Labour 4% behind them effectively 4th and not great for Davey either with LDs on 9%
Ashcroft
Daily Mail
5 days late for the Sunday version
When was the last time Ashcroft or the Mail got anything right.
Tories can spend Easter Sunday politically masturbating over an outlier client poll in the Mail
FFS
Utter denial
Tories 5th or 6th in Scotland 5th or 6th in Wales
4th or 5th in English Locals
Thats the actual reality
You are so easily wound up and yes it's Lord Ashcroft and easily dismissed
However, Reform do seem to be losing some of their shine and long may it continue
I don't disagree Reform are losing some of their lustre in Opinion Polling but the truth will only be known after May 7th on that score.
Labour are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Tories are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Greens are opinion polling between 14 and 20.
My amusement is based on the fact that Ashcroft is a completely busted flush as far as polling is concerned, even the Client , The Mail has to go back to 2016 to find a credible comment on his Polling and this is what it is.
A Daily Mail client "nudge and nurdle" to have optimum benefot for Right Wing Parties.
Happy Easter!
Happy Easter to you
Politics is in turmoil with increasingly cynicism and distrust in all parties which shows little evidence of abatting anytime soon
It is a very difficult time to be in government as they are the ones in the cross hairs, fairly or unfairly
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
The pollsters ought to be telling us how much support Reform are losing to Rupert Lowe's party but they don't seem to be very interested in that,
Quite difficult since he doesn't seem very interested in standing any candidates.
Apparently there are plenty of people willing to stand but no time in which to vet them, and the hope is to avoid Reform's mistakes.
Not standing anyone outside Great Yarmouth might be a big mistake though - Change UK didn't stand in the 2019 Local elections and LD and Indies swept up all the discontent. By the time the Euros came round Change were yesterday's news.
"In a final twist after the weapons officer was rescued, two transport planes that would carry the commandos and the airmen to safety got stuck at a remote base in Iran. Commanders decided to fly in three new planes to extract all the U.S. military personnel and the airmen, and they blew up the two disabled planes rather than have them fall into Iranian hands." -NYT
The number of planes America is losing in this campaign is ramping up. One plane getting "disabled" would be unfortunate. Both is unlikely.
Am assuming they both sustained damged from ground fire.
"In a final twist after the weapons officer was rescued, two transport planes that would carry the commandos and the airmen to safety got stuck at a remote base in Iran. Commanders decided to fly in three new planes to extract all the U.S. military personnel and the airmen, and they blew up the two disabled planes rather than have them fall into Iranian hands." -NYT
The number of planes America is losing in this campaign is ramping up. One plane getting "disabled" would be unfortunate. Both is unlikely.
Am assuming they both sustained damged from ground fire.
What’s the problem with losing a few planes? It’s just money that was going to be spent on the poor and needy.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
More rumours on X that the Yankees have special new weapons - perhaps EMP type devices - which disable all drones and weapons in area and disorient enemy soldiers. Hence the successful exfiltration of this pilot with zero losses, similar to Venezuela
If this is true - it is further rumoured - it may explain why Trump is apparently willing to risk a disastrous ground invasion. It won’t be disastrous
Probably bullshit. But entertaining bullshit
On the other side, the Iranians are threatening some huge event of their own by tonight (against Saudi maybe?) but there are also signs of regime flakiness. Leaders killed. Opposition emboldened
"In a final twist after the weapons officer was rescued, two transport planes that would carry the commandos and the airmen to safety got stuck at a remote base in Iran. Commanders decided to fly in three new planes to extract all the U.S. military personnel and the airmen, and they blew up the two disabled planes rather than have them fall into Iranian hands." -NYT
The number of planes America is losing in this campaign is ramping up. One plane getting "disabled" would be unfortunate. Both is unlikely.
Am assuming they both sustained damged from ground fire.
What’s the problem with losing a few planes? It’s just money that was going to be spent on the poor and needy.
The US military has 14,000 aircraft. I think they will cope
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Great poll for Kemi and Polanski, the Tories and Greens tied for first with Reform.
Terrible poll for Starmer with Labour 4% behind them effectively 4th and not great for Davey either with LDs on 9%
Ashcroft
Daily Mail
5 days late for the Sunday version
When was the last time Ashcroft or the Mail got anything right.
Tories can spend Easter Sunday politically masturbating over an outlier client poll in the Mail
FFS
Utter denial
Tories 5th or 6th in Scotland 5th or 6th in Wales
4th or 5th in English Locals
Thats the actual reality
You are so easily wound up and yes it's Lord Ashcroft and easily dismissed
However, Reform do seem to be losing some of their shine and long may it continue
I don't disagree Reform are losing some of their lustre in Opinion Polling but the truth will only be known after May 7th on that score.
Labour are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Tories are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Greens are opinion polling between 14 and 20.
My amusement is based on the fact that Ashcroft is a completely busted flush as far as polling is concerned, even the Client , The Mail has to go back to 2016 to find a credible comment on his Polling and this is what it is.
A Daily Mail client "nudge and nurdle" to have optimum benefot for Right Wing Parties.
Happy Easter!
May 7th might not tell us much. In England local elections are a vehicle for protesting about the nature of reality, as mostly those in charge are dealing with bins and bollards. In Scotland, the Left of Centre vote share tends to be over 60% and even if Reform only does OK it will be good for them. Wales; no idea.
It is not the snapshot of May but the trend and the future obstacles that enable guesses about the next GE. Farage does not look like the person the majority will choose as PM for hard times. Their party is split between libertarians, muscular Christians who don't go to church, 1950s Labour social democracy + racism, chaps on the make with a suit and pseudo intellectuals. This doesn't make them a lot worse than the others, but the difference is real.
What % of the voting population would really prefer Farage to Starmer, and turn up to vote for it, at this very moment to deal with the freak show that is world politics right now?
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
"In a final twist after the weapons officer was rescued, two transport planes that would carry the commandos and the airmen to safety got stuck at a remote base in Iran. Commanders decided to fly in three new planes to extract all the U.S. military personnel and the airmen, and they blew up the two disabled planes rather than have them fall into Iranian hands." -NYT
The number of planes America is losing in this campaign is ramping up. One plane getting "disabled" would be unfortunate. Both is unlikely.
Am assuming they both sustained damged from ground fire.
What’s the problem with losing a few planes? It’s just money that was going to be spent on the poor and needy.
The US military has 14,000 aircraft. I think they will cope
Yes, but when you exclude the number on standby around the country to take Adminstration members to see their paramours...
Morning all. On the Ashcroft poll, whilst acknowledging he is non BPC etc, the stickiest out feature from the tables aside from Ref lose the outright lead is that before rounding the Greens are top for the first time ever in a UK poll.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
It sounds like so much paranoid wank.
Reform going for the paranoid wanker vote.
It’s not “paranoid wank”. Amongst individual local authorities Glasgow is hosting the most asylum seekers in the UK - around 4000 at last count. Glasgow also houses ~90% of all asylum seekers in Scotland
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
It sounds like so much paranoid wank.
Reform going for the paranoid wanker vote.
Populists always do.
You can't blame Them for things going wrong without a shadowy Them to blame.
OT. The anger from the US podcasters at their government is becoming unhinged. It's pretty difficult to separate one from another. They can be funny but as the days pass it's mainly angry. Here's a typical one which vaguely relates to Trump's loss of support among Europeans. Sadly as in most of them The UK fails by being on the Trump side
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
It sounds like so much paranoid wank.
Reform going for the paranoid wanker vote.
They are going for the xenophobic vote frightened and disoriented by the rapid influx of new immigrants into Glasgow. This kind of thing cannot be countered forcefully by saying "In terms of population density, Scotland would rank around 150th"; by mentioning previous waves of immigration to Glasgow, notably from Ireland, the Indian subcontinent, and Poland; or by saying "you're imagining stuff, you paranoid wankers". The "capital of the UK" bit works at various levels. It says "The government is treating our city as a dustbin". It also slips in the term "UK" - dodging the fact that a majority of voters in Glasgow voted to leave the UK - in a way that the SNP can't counter by saying "Don't blame us - it's all the fault of the English, and after independence Glasgow will go back to how it was before." And under the counter it pumps pride.
That anyone considering voting for Reform is a wanker is not in dispute.
Morning all. On the Ashcroft poll, whilst acknowledging he is non BPC etc, the stickiest out feature from the tables aside from Ref lose the outright lead is that before rounding the Greens are top for the first time ever in a UK poll.
The Conservatives would win most seats though on the Ashcroft poll with Reform second and the Greens only third based on Nowcast. The Green vote would be huge in inner city constituencies where they would sweep Labour aside.
In the marginal suburban and small city and market and seaside and ex industrial town constituencies that decide general elections though it would be the Conservatives and Reform gaining them from Labour not the Greens if Ashcroft's poll is right
Trumps latest deadline for Iran expires at 15.05 UK time tomorrow .
The Gulf states will be very nervous as to what happens next . The media today are just obsessing over the US pilot and Trump trying desperately to change the narrative that his war is going well.
Meanwhile US gas prices are averaging 4.11 dollars a barrel and diesel now at 5.61. Trump can’t run away from that .
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
It sounds like so much paranoid wank.
Reform going for the paranoid wanker vote.
It’s not “paranoid wank”. Amongst individual local authorities Glasgow is hosting the most asylum seekers in the UK - around 4000 at last count. Glasgow also houses ~90% of all asylum seekers in Scotland
You should do more research before you post
You'd expect that of a big city. It's 0.6% of the population
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Great poll for Kemi and Polanski, the Tories and Greens tied for first with Reform.
Terrible poll for Starmer with Labour 4% behind them effectively 4th and not great for Davey either with LDs on 9%
Ashcroft
Daily Mail
5 days late for the Sunday version
When was the last time Ashcroft or the Mail got anything right.
Tories can spend Easter Sunday politically masturbating over an outlier client poll in the Mail
FFS
Utter denial
Tories 5th or 6th in Scotland 5th or 6th in Wales
4th or 5th in English Locals
Thats the actual reality
You are so easily wound up and yes it's Lord Ashcroft and easily dismissed
However, Reform do seem to be losing some of their shine and long may it continue
I don't disagree Reform are losing some of their lustre in Opinion Polling but the truth will only be known after May 7th on that score.
Labour are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Tories are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Greens are opinion polling between 14 and 20.
My amusement is based on the fact that Ashcroft is a completely busted flush as far as polling is concerned, even the Client , The Mail has to go back to 2016 to find a credible comment on his Polling and this is what it is.
A Daily Mail client "nudge and nurdle" to have optimum benefot for Right Wing Parties.
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Great poll for Kemi and Polanski, the Tories and Greens tied for first with Reform.
Terrible poll for Starmer with Labour 4% behind them effectively 4th and not great for Davey either with LDs on 9%
Ashcroft
Daily Mail
5 days late for the Sunday version
When was the last time Ashcroft or the Mail got anything right.
Tories can spend Easter Sunday politically masturbating over an outlier client poll in the Mail
FFS
Utter denial
Tories 5th or 6th in Scotland 5th or 6th in Wales
4th or 5th in English Locals
Thats the actual reality
You are so easily wound up and yes it's Lord Ashcroft and easily dismissed
However, Reform do seem to be losing some of their shine and long may it continue
I don't disagree Reform are losing some of their lustre in Opinion Polling but the truth will only be known after May 7th on that score.
Labour are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Tories are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Greens are opinion polling between 14 and 20.
My amusement is based on the fact that Ashcroft is a completely busted flush as far as polling is concerned, even the Client , The Mail has to go back to 2016 to find a credible comment on his Polling and this is what it is.
A Daily Mail client "nudge and nurdle" to have optimum benefot for Right Wing Parties.
Disastrous poll for the SNP, losing 7 seats on those they got in 2021. Of course Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 on that but he has made clear he would do so regardless anyway.
Given Reform currently have 0 seats at Holyrood, 16 MSPs is still by far the biggest projected gain for any party in Scotland
I'm sure they'd be delighted with such an outcome, rightfully so, even if it is down on what the heights might have suggested.
I'd love if the SNP faced such a situation, but I'm wary of expecting such an outcome.
Given Swinney has been going on all year he needs 68 seats for an SNP majority and a mandate for indyref2 it would be a terrible result for him actually!
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage neck and neck: Poll reveals unprecedented three-way tie between the Tories, Reform and Greens... will the Right unite to save us from a coalition of chaos?
Great poll for Kemi and Polanski, the Tories and Greens tied for first with Reform.
Terrible poll for Starmer with Labour 4% behind them effectively 4th and not great for Davey either with LDs on 9%
Ashcroft
Daily Mail
5 days late for the Sunday version
When was the last time Ashcroft or the Mail got anything right.
Tories can spend Easter Sunday politically masturbating over an outlier client poll in the Mail
FFS
Utter denial
Tories 5th or 6th in Scotland 5th or 6th in Wales
4th or 5th in English Locals
Thats the actual reality
You are so easily wound up and yes it's Lord Ashcroft and easily dismissed
However, Reform do seem to be losing some of their shine and long may it continue
I don't disagree Reform are losing some of their lustre in Opinion Polling but the truth will only be known after May 7th on that score.
Labour are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Tories are opinion polling between 17 and 21 Greens are opinion polling between 14 and 20.
My amusement is based on the fact that Ashcroft is a completely busted flush as far as polling is concerned, even the Client , The Mail has to go back to 2016 to find a credible comment on his Polling and this is what it is.
A Daily Mail client "nudge and nurdle" to have optimum benefot for Right Wing Parties.
Happy Easter!
May 7th might not tell us much. In England local elections are a vehicle for protesting about the nature of reality, as mostly those in charge are dealing with bins and bollards. In Scotland, the Left of Centre vote share tends to be over 60% and even if Reform only does OK it will be good for them. Wales; no idea.
It is not the snapshot of May but the trend and the future obstacles that enable guesses about the next GE. Farage does not look like the person the majority will choose as PM for hard times. Their party is split between libertarians, muscular Christians who don't go to church, 1950s Labour social democracy + racism, chaps on the make with a suit and pseudo intellectuals. This doesn't make them a lot worse than the others, but the difference is real.
What % of the voting population would really prefer Farage to Starmer, and turn up to vote for it, at this very moment to deal with the freak show that is world politics right now?
Wales and Scotland may tell us something of how people may vote in a general election. You can obviously still have tactical voting in the Scottish constituencies, less so in Wales now but I imagine you can still do it to some extent in the 6 member constituencies.
The locals less so, as it is widely seen as a protest vote and people may in any case vote differently to how they would in a GE.
Disastrous poll for the SNP, losing 7 seats on those they got in 2021. Of course Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 on that but he has made clear he would do so regardless anyway.
Given Reform currently have 0 seats at Holyrood, 16 MSPs is still by far the biggest projected gain for any party in Scotland
I'm sure they'd be delighted with such an outcome, rightfully so, even if it is down on what the heights might have suggested.
I'd love if the SNP faced such a situation, but I'm wary of expecting such an outcome.
Given Swinney has been going on all year he needs 68 seats for an SNP majority and a mandate for indyref2 it would be a terrible result for him actually!
65 seats for a Holyrood majority, old sport.
You need to up your Scotch numbers game.
SNP projected just 57 seats with Norstat
And with the Greens will run Scotland for the next 5 years
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
It sounds like so much paranoid wank.
Reform going for the paranoid wanker vote.
It’s not “paranoid wank”. Amongst individual local authorities Glasgow is hosting the most asylum seekers in the UK - around 4000 at last count. Glasgow also houses ~90% of all asylum seekers in Scotland
You should do more research before you post
Housed asylum seekers =/= the issue Reform is using on illegal immigrants.
The most popular destination in the UK among migrants is London, where they constitute 40% of the region's population. Tell that to Glasgow.
The number of arrests for illegal working shows that Scotland - not just Glasgow, but the whole of Scotland - ranked 8th in the UK's regions. 189 vs 1012 for just London.
Morning all. On the Ashcroft poll, whilst acknowledging he is non BPC etc, the stickiest out feature from the tables aside from Ref lose the outright lead is that before rounding the Greens are top for the first time ever in a UK poll.
The Conservatives would win most seats though on the Ashcroft poll with Reform second and the Greens only third based on Nowcast. The Green vote would be huge in inner city constituencies where they would sweep Labour aside.
In the marginal suburban and small city and market and seaside and ex industrial town constituencies that decide general elections though it would be the Conservatives and Reform gaining them from Labour not the Greens if Ashcroft's poll is right
3 years out.
2029
It will be SNP / Lab / Reform battle in Scotland PC / Lab / Reform in Wales
Lab / Reform / Green in North Reform / Lab / Tory / Green in Midlands Tory / Reform / LD / Lab in Shires Lab / Green / Tory /Reform in South East and London LD / Green / Tory / Lab in SW
Lab vote up 5% if not Starmer Con vote up 5% if Cleverley or Hunt
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
Disastrous poll for the SNP, losing 7 seats on those they got in 2021. Of course Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 on that but he has made clear he would do so regardless anyway.
Given Reform currently have 0 seats at Holyrood, 16 MSPs is still by far the biggest projected gain for any party in Scotland
I'm sure they'd be delighted with such an outcome, rightfully so, even if it is down on what the heights might have suggested.
I'd love if the SNP faced such a situation, but I'm wary of expecting such an outcome.
Given Swinney has been going on all year he needs 68 seats for an SNP majority and a mandate for indyref2 it would be a terrible result for him actually!
65 seats for a Holyrood majority, old sport.
You need to up your Scotch numbers game.
SNP projected just 57 seats with Norstat
And with the Greens will run Scotland for the next 5 years
Disastrous poll for the SNP, losing 7 seats on those they got in 2021. Of course Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 on that but he has made clear he would do so regardless anyway.
Given Reform currently have 0 seats at Holyrood, 16 MSPs is still by far the biggest projected gain for any party in Scotland
I'm sure they'd be delighted with such an outcome, rightfully so, even if it is down on what the heights might have suggested.
I'd love if the SNP faced such a situation, but I'm wary of expecting such an outcome.
Given Swinney has been going on all year he needs 68 seats for an SNP majority and a mandate for indyref2 it would be a terrible result for him actually!
65 seats for a Holyrood majority, old sport.
You need to up your Scotch numbers game.
SNP projected just 57 seats with Norstat
And with the Greens will run Scotland for the next 5 years
The combined SNP and Green seats also down a net 2 seats on 2021. The Greens walked from their coalition with the SNP post 2021 as they fell out over the SNP government's decision to scrap climate targets and a pause on the prescription of puberty blockers for under-18s.
English nationalism isn't a big thing in Scotland. Reform is simply the party for racists here. There's no veneer. Given that, worrying large numbers support it.
Disastrous poll for the SNP, losing 7 seats on those they got in 2021. Of course Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 on that but he has made clear he would do so regardless anyway.
Given Reform currently have 0 seats at Holyrood, 16 MSPs is still by far the biggest projected gain for any party in Scotland
I'm sure they'd be delighted with such an outcome, rightfully so, even if it is down on what the heights might have suggested.
I'd love if the SNP faced such a situation, but I'm wary of expecting such an outcome.
Given Swinney has been going on all year he needs 68 seats for an SNP majority and a mandate for indyref2 it would be a terrible result for him actually!
65 seats for a Holyrood majority, old sport.
You need to up your Scotch numbers game.
SNP projected just 57 seats with Norstat
Scotland is in the unusual position (for the UK) of having two incumbent governing parties
Happy Easter PB, may you all have a great day whatever you are doing.
For some it will be church, for others hunting eggs around the garden or the local park, going for Sunday Lunch, visiting family, or even a day in front of the TV watching sports. Hopefully it’s only me dodging Iranian missiles!
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
I think it may be more convincing than continuing to allow Westminster to impose ‘dispersal’ centres on Scotland to cope with a situation they’re unable to solve at source. A year ago 1 in 6 out of 360 UK regions were taking no refugees, I’d be surprised if that’s improved much. Call me cynical but exporting an expensive, disruptive problem to areas controlled by their opponents is a feature not a bug for HMG.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
It seems one or two have been up early and been knocking back the Easter Eggs or the Shredded Wheat as we have the infamous over-reaction to a poll which says what the loudest voices on here want to hear.
Where do we start with the Ashcroft poll? First off, we don't - it may be the latest poll we've seen and it may, as said, have numbers the more vocal of us want to see but it's not the latest poll - that's the FoN survey which was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday and shows Reform six points ahead on 26% with the Greens on 20%.
Looking across the suite of recent polls and you have nine point variations in Reform and Green support - that's not just a small statistical gap, that's a chasm and needs explaining - poor sample data, differing methodology, different weighting etc, etc.
Simply grabbing at the poll which has the best numbers for the party you support and shouting about it from the rooftops may be what some do on here but it's weak analysis, ropey commentary and shows a lack of understanding of how politics works.
Anyhow - we'll get a better and larger barometer of public opinion at the beginning of next month which may illustrate which pollsters are seeing things right and which need to adjust their methodology.
A bit of contorting from the White House to justify US and Israel committing war crimes by attacking civilian infrastructure. Bart, these are your heroes.
‘ This isn't legal analysis. It's idiocy:
"A White House official added that electric plants are legitimate military targets because destroying them could foment civil unrest, complicating Tehran’s path to a nuclear device"
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
Seeking asylum is the fall back option. If you get caught. Then you check your notes, and announce that you are a 15 year old gay Christian convert from Afghanistan.
Vanishing without a trace, living in a "shed with a bed" and working for cash in hand is the preference of these lads.
A bit of contorting from the White House to justify US and Israel committing war crimes by attacking civilian infrastructure. Bart, these are your heroes.
‘ This isn't legal analysis. It's idiocy:
"A White House official added that electric plants are legitimate military targets because destroying them could foment civil unrest, complicating Tehran’s path to a nuclear device"
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
Seeking asylum is the fall back option. If you get caught. Then you check your notes, and announce that you are a 15 year old gay Christian convert from Afghanistan.
Vanishing without a trace, living in a "shed with a bed" and working for cash in hand is the preference of these lads.
I dont think that is true. 96% of small boat arrivals apply for asylum.
People working illegally are usually people who entered legally and either overstay their visas or work outside them.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
If you have ever watched the film Casablanca then you would know that wasn't true. Made in 1942 and the people smugglers are the heroes.
Fox News can confirm that the 2nd crew member of the downed F15E fighter jet has been rescued and he and the members of the rescue team that extracted him from behind enemy lines in Iran are all safely out of Iran. That according to two senior US officials and multiple well placed sources in the region. The Weapons Systems Officer ejected along with the pilot when their F15E Strike Eagle they were flying was struck Thursday night (early Friday local time) in southwest Iran.
The WSO used the SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape) training to evade capture, hiding on an elevated ridge after hiking away from the wreckage and putting out an emergency beacon.) US Special Operations rescue forces to include PJs (United States Air Force Pararescuemen (PJs) and many layers of elite rescue forces took part in the complex, layered mission to both find the crew member and also keep the Iranian forces who were hunting the American weapons system operator at bay. There are videos that have appeared from local eyewitnesses that show what appear to have been injured and dead Iranian members of the IRGC and Basij who were looking for the downed American crew member. Fox has learned there was fighting on the ground but no Americans killed during the operation. “It was a very complex operation to retrieve the downed service member,” a well placed source briefed on the operation told me. Many different branches of the US military were involved in the rescue.
Western militaries do go to quite extraordinary lengths to rescue their own in an emergency. Multiple elite units across services, dozens of personnel and vehicles, literally no stone unturned in the effort to recover the downed airman.
There are even some reports of fighting between IRGC troops (in plain clothes) and local Iranians, the locals trying to keep the soldiers off the trail to find the American.
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
If you have ever watched the film Casablanca then you would know that wasn't true. Made in 1942 and the people smugglers are the heroes.
Indeed who can forget this famous quote? "Of all the asylum hostels in all the towns in all the world, they walk into mine."
On topic, let it never be forgotten that Scotland’s hacks were giving Lord Offord collective standing ovations a few months ago. His latest masterstroke is to frighten Scots with the boat peopl.
Most illegal immigrants haven't arrived on small boats, and London is a bigger magnet than Scotland for recent arrivals, but I don't think making either of those points will hit Reform particularly hard in Glasgow, which is where this propaganda is aimed at. "Glasgow is the illegral immigrant capital of the UK" is quite a clever slogan.
Might be proven wrong but don’t think Glasgow will be particularly fertile territory for Reform outside the Rangers supporting folk, Ayrshire, Forth Valley and bits of the NE more likely.
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
If the SNP adopt the position that illegal immigration is a big issue and they're the party best placed to deal with it, because after independence they'll be able to, they may find it hard to convince people.
For the billionth time: it isn't illegal to enter the country with the purpose of seeking asylum.
dancing on the head of a pin there, utter bollox. It was never meant that you could pass through many many safe countries , pay criminals a large sum to pop up somewhere to spend your life on benefits.
It's never been the position in international law that you have to claim asylum in the first safe country you pass through, and it isn't desperately surprising people seek asylum in a country where they have a connection due to language, colonial history, family or whatever.
It also isn't massively shocking that a country just off the north coast of a pretty safe continent would quite like that to be the rule, as it would essentially void almost all asylum claims here. But the idea that it is the rule is just the stuff of popular mythology.
Comments
BREAKING: Kuwait’s Ministry of Oil building hit in an Iranian attack
"Michael Gove admits crush on Shabana Mahmood
Former Tory minister says he spends ‘quite a lot’ of internet browsing time looking at images of Home Secretary"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/04/04/michael-gove-admits-crush-on-shabana-mahmood/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1VgcxE9Lpw
Let the left try to stitch together 5 parties… or have another election when they will be in complete disarray as they would with those numbers
The WSO used the SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape) training to evade capture, hiding on an elevated ridge after hiking away from the wreckage and putting out an emergency beacon.) US Special Operations rescue forces to include PJs (United States Air Force Pararescuemen (PJs) and many layers of elite rescue forces took part in the complex, layered mission to both find the crew member and also keep the Iranian forces who were hunting the American weapons system operator at bay. There are videos that have appeared from local eyewitnesses that show what appear to have been injured and dead Iranian members of the IRGC and Basij who were looking for the downed American crew member. Fox has learned there was fighting on the ground but no Americans killed during the operation. “It was a very complex operation to retrieve the downed service member,” a well placed source briefed on the operation told me. Many different branches of the US military were involved in the rescue.
https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/2040637421373505989?s=20
Coming to cinemas in 2028....
Still, always nice to see Labour in 5th place, which is about what they deserve.
Also I imagine the LDs would finally stop drivelling on about PR if the electoral system doesn't disadvantage them much. And whether, converaely, Labour would start bringing it up?
Daily Mail
5 days late for the Sunday version
When was the last time Ashcroft or the Mail got anything right.
Tories can spend Easter Sunday politically masturbating over an outlier client poll in the Mail
FFS
Utter denial
Tories
5th or 6th in Scotland
5th or 6th in Wales
4th or 5th in English Locals
Thats the actual reality
LibDems: 3,519,143 votes; 72 seats
Reform: 4,106,661 votes; 5 seats
If Ed Davey has called for Reform to be recognised as our third party, I've missed it. If he offered Nigel Farage his two guaranteed questions at PMQs, I missed that too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4nglegege1o
BBC News - Ed Davey wants to 'work with government' on electoral reform - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx3d297pl0o?app-referrer=deep-link
(Ironically, of course FPTP has delivered a proportional result to the LibDems: 11 per cent of the seats on 12 per cent of the votes.)
I do not think that is true.
PR but not just yet surely covers it.
The rescue of the second crew member inside Iran is extraordinary and will no doubt be the subject of a dramatic film in time
I am really pleased for the airman and his family and that Iran did not get a political propaganda story
Tomorrow ends the period that Trump gave Iran to open the.Strait of Hormuz and what comes next I fear will not be good
However, Reform do seem to be losing some of their shine and long may it continue
Admittedly I might also have derided the Hon Member for Falling in the Water as another fatuous and vacuous figure whose principles are deployed only when convenient.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/
I think the conventional wisdom is probably broadly right on that. In particular, Farage would be saying "let's tango" in these circumstances, and Badenoch would be punished very hard, losing votes both to him and the Lib Dems, if she said, "we're largest party, but I think I'll just sit this one out for tactical reasons" - it's not very credible out in the country.
Stop shooting people in small boats?
Kamala Harris would have made a decent president?
Nigel Farage and Robert Jenrick are actually quite smart?
You need to up your Scotch numbers game.
But I suspect the wish is father to the thought here.
On the Ashcroft poll, whilst acknowledging he is non BPC etc, the stickiest out feature from the tables aside from Ref lose the outright lead is that before rounding the Greens are top for the first time ever in a UK poll.
Labour are opinion polling between 17 and 21
Tories are opinion polling between 17 and 21
Greens are opinion polling between 14 and 20.
My amusement is based on the fact that Ashcroft is a completely busted flush as far as polling is concerned, even the Client , The Mail has to go back to 2016 to find a credible comment on his Polling and this is what it is.
A Daily Mail client "nudge and nurdle" to have optimum benefot for Right Wing Parties.
Happy Easter!
Same sort of guy I suppose, although Trump is rather more chaotic.
Politics is in turmoil with increasingly cynicism and distrust in all parties which shows little evidence of abatting anytime soon
It is a very difficult time to be in government as they are the ones in the cross hairs, fairly or unfairly
https://x.com/rebecca_brady_/status/2039295498100559954?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Am assuming they both sustained damged from ground fire.
If this is true - it is further rumoured - it may explain why Trump is apparently willing to risk a disastrous ground invasion. It won’t be disastrous
Probably bullshit. But entertaining bullshit
On the other side, the Iranians are threatening some huge event of their own by tonight (against Saudi maybe?) but there are also signs of regime flakiness. Leaders killed. Opposition emboldened
🤷🏼♂️
It is not the snapshot of May but the trend and the future obstacles that enable guesses about the next GE. Farage does not look like the person the majority will choose as PM for hard times. Their party is split between libertarians, muscular Christians who don't go to church, 1950s Labour social democracy + racism, chaps on the make with a suit and pseudo intellectuals. This doesn't make them a lot worse than the others, but the difference is real.
What % of the voting population would really prefer Farage to Starmer, and turn up to vote for it, at this very moment to deal with the freak show that is world politics right now?
Reform going for the paranoid wanker vote.
...it only leaves 56.
You should do more research before you post
You can't blame Them for things going wrong without a shadowy Them to blame.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ryf4dIJaZiY
That anyone considering voting for Reform is a wanker is not in dispute.
And another day when their troop losses are greater than planned Russian recruitment targets.
In the marginal suburban and small city and market and seaside and ex industrial town constituencies that decide general elections though it would be the Conservatives and Reform gaining them from Labour not the Greens if Ashcroft's poll is right
The Gulf states will be very nervous as to what happens next . The media today are just obsessing over the US pilot and Trump trying desperately to change the narrative that his war is going well.
Meanwhile US gas prices are averaging 4.11 dollars a barrel and diesel now at 5.61. Trump can’t run away from that .
Given that it’s Scotland & Glasgow’s generous policy towards supporting refuweegees and HMG sotto voce encouraging them to take the high road to Scotland, it’s a good argument for us having independent control over immigration. Don’t suppose Reform is suggesting that.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/07/my-final-campaign-poll-shows-why-every-vote-still-counts/
The locals less so, as it is widely seen as a protest vote and people may in any case vote differently to how they would in a GE.
The most popular destination in the UK among migrants is London, where they constitute 40% of the region's population. Tell that to Glasgow.
The number of arrests for illegal working shows that Scotland - not just Glasgow, but the whole of Scotland - ranked 8th in the UK's regions. 189 vs 1012 for just London.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/returns-from-the-uk-and-illegal-working-activity-since-july-2024/illegal-working-activity-since-5-july-2024
Research, innit?
2029
It will be SNP / Lab / Reform battle in Scotland
PC / Lab / Reform in Wales
Lab / Reform / Green in North
Reform / Lab / Tory / Green in Midlands
Tory / Reform / LD / Lab in Shires
Lab / Green / Tory /Reform in South East and London
LD / Green / Tory / Lab in SW
Lab vote up 5% if not Starmer
Con vote up 5% if Cleverley or Hunt
Man who doesn't accept defeat well building heavily fortified "ballroom".
Well, the first thing I did today was clean up some dog sick, but at least there wasn't much.
In happier news, here's a story about a statue for a landmine-sniffing rat: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rx7xzd10xo
For some it will be church, for others hunting eggs around the garden or the local park, going for Sunday Lunch, visiting family, or even a day in front of the TV watching sports. Hopefully it’s only me dodging Iranian missiles!
About as meaningful as polling Trump's immediate family as to whether they approve of him as President.
By eating chocolate.
Happy Easter everyone.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/25107857.glasgow-demands-pause-asylum-seekers-costs-balloon/?fbclid=IwZnRzaAQ--IRleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZA8xNzM4NDc2NDI2NzAzNzAAAR7InUSdDCT54YggzWqjYpsJOj-wM6Vl_dTElKBrVz2y2V3xvF3mFRW3somXkw_aem_a97Sy9BL8lcxu1eckaLLCQ
First, Easter greetings to all.
It seems one or two have been up early and been knocking back the Easter Eggs or the Shredded Wheat as we have the infamous over-reaction to a poll which says what the loudest voices on here want to hear.
Where do we start with the Ashcroft poll? First off, we don't - it may be the latest poll we've seen and it may, as said, have numbers the more vocal of us want to see but it's not the latest poll - that's the FoN survey which was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday and shows Reform six points ahead on 26% with the Greens on 20%.
Looking across the suite of recent polls and you have nine point variations in Reform and Green support - that's not just a small statistical gap, that's a chasm and needs explaining - poor sample data, differing methodology, different weighting etc, etc.
Simply grabbing at the poll which has the best numbers for the party you support and shouting about it from the rooftops may be what some do on here but it's weak analysis, ropey commentary and shows a lack of understanding of how politics works.
Anyhow - we'll get a better and larger barometer of public opinion at the beginning of next month which may illustrate which pollsters are seeing things right and which need to adjust their methodology.
‘ This isn't legal analysis. It's idiocy:
"A White House official added that electric plants are legitimate military targets because destroying them could foment civil unrest, complicating Tehran’s path to a nuclear device"
That would be an F on the bar exam’
https://x.com/rgoodlaw/status/2040547762710704254?s=61
Vanishing without a trace, living in a "shed with a bed" and working for cash in hand is the preference of these lads.
People working illegally are usually people who entered legally and either overstay their visas or work outside them.
A brief description, from someone who’s been there.
https://x.com/mcccanm/status/2040124352478543897
There are even some reports of fighting between IRGC troops (in plain clothes) and local Iranians, the locals trying to keep the soldiers off the trail to find the American.
This seems remarkably uncommented upon, probably because they still "lead" the polls.
It also isn't massively shocking that a country just off the north coast of a pretty safe continent would quite like that to be the rule, as it would essentially void almost all asylum claims here. But the idea that it is the rule is just the stuff of popular mythology.
Among members of or attendees at CPAC, a massive Republican convention, it’s probably about right.
There is something of a split starting to appear over Iran, but it’s pretty small so far.