Trying to bet in a stupid and irrational world – politicalbetting.com
Trying to bet in a stupid and irrational world – politicalbetting.com
During my lifetime whilst I might have disagreed with some of the the occupants of the White House I had no doubt they thought they were doing what they thought was right, I cannot say that about Donald Trump, this makes betting slightly complicated if you believe in rationality underpinning behaviour.
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Dukes owner Dilip Jajodia laments ‘Gulf war nonsense’ as logjam in flights from south Asia prevents his product from returning to UK
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2026/03/19/english-cricket-hit-by-dukes-ball-shortage-iran-war/
What was never considered was a scenario where Iran could stop Gulf states getting their products out, while still being allowed to let its own out too.
Utter insanity.
A rival has to stand with the support of 20% of the PLP, which is 81 MPs I think, then Starmer decides whether to contest the challenge (nominations are not needed), then the rivals need 5% of CLPs to support and a number of affiliates.
I expect that challenge in May.
A leadership contest im midst of an international crisis is not unprecedented. We had one in May 1940 after all.
Do it, or don't do it.
Din't half arse it.
They knew that Trump was a capricious, narcisstic, vengeful, vainglorious potential tyrant from his first term, but re-elected him anyway. Now the world has to live with the consequences.
Now we know how the Romans must have felt under Caligula.
Not only would he never got them without a total and utter defeat of Britain and the USA (up to and including a land invasion and occupation) I very much doubt Japan could have run and policed such a vast empire.
Good morning, everyone.
That makes 5,760 lost in the past four days. In 4 days, Russia has lost 10% of America's killed in nearly 20 years of war in Vietnam.
I look at Iran prepared to lash out at its neighbours with conventional high explosives and worry they would use nukes if they had them. The current war with Iran has been cack-handed, an unready US led into it by Bibi when negotiations had not been exhausted (indeed if Powell was right, were getting somewhere). It has served Israeli interests - more likely, Bibi's personal crusade to keep out of jail - at huge cost to world economies. It has poisoned international relationships, within the Gulf and with those still prepared to look to the US as a leader whose aims are true. Trump has been exposed to those who voted for him again in 2024 as a pompous fool, incapable of holding coherent thoughts in the same press conference.
And yet, I still can't bring myself to condemn bombing Iran's means of producing a nuclear bomb.
Even so, the slaughter is incredible. Putin could stop it at any time by simply withdrawing. Ukraine doesn't have that option.
NOW - Netanyahu: "Jesus Christ has no advantage over Genghis Khan. Because if you are strong enough, ruthless enough, powerful enough, evil will overcome good."
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2034713271517794575?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Limited fire, no injuries.
‘ JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇰🇼 Iran strikes Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery in Kuwait.’
https://x.com/bricsinfo/status/2034861995003191402?s=61
Well done Trump and Bibi, playing a blinder here.
For contriving to put forward Kamala Harris. Inept as a candidate during the primaries that saw Biden come to get the nomination. What did they expect
This is also why Bolton is both correct and wrong. He’s correct in that the model would show no oil from Iran getting through but there are currently no ships in a position to stop Iran shipments from leaving the straits
Israel and the USA are getting a bloody nose here and not getting their own way.
If you believe what the CEO of Rheinmetall was saying recently they will be running out of key munitions shortly.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration will likely lift sanctions on Iranian oil that is already at sea in the coming days, freeing up an estimated 140 million barrels.
“That’s about 10 days to two weeks of supply that the Iranians had been pushing out that would have all gone to China,” he told Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days as we continue this campaign.”
Harris was not a perfect candidate (who is?) but she was merely useless within the normal range. Trump is off the scale bad.
Yes it was and good to read
Attorney general asks if Kemi Badenoch would object to Jewish public prayer
Exclusive: Richard Hermer, who is Jewish, says Tory leader and shadow minister seem ‘to only have an issue with Muslim events
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/20/attorney-general-richard-hermer-kemi-badenoch-public-prayer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
and
VOICE OF THE JEWISH NEWS: In defence of praying during Iftar in Trafalgar Square
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/voice-of-the-jewish-news-in-defence-of-praying-during-iftar-in-trafalgar-square/
We certainly wouldn’t be in this position now if she had won . I’m afraid this blaming on the Dems for Trump winning is a way to ignore the darker truth . A large section of US voters are racist bigots who get off on cruelty being dished out to others . Only when that landed on their door did they suddenly start finding their buyers remorse .
Welcome back, Kaiser Bill II
https://x.com/sungleeiq/status/2034821036500217922?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Democrats absolutely should be asking themselves why they couldn't find a better candidate than Harris. It's not obvious that the Democratic Party top table had anyone better, but in a country the size of the USA, there must have been someone. (The nature of the primary process, and the megabucks involved, are a massive issue.)
But the same could be said of the Republicans, only more so. They have let themselves be swallowed whole by DJT.
And as for voters... There's a line where a candidate's contempt for democracy means that their opponent is preferable, no matter how flawed. Trump crossed that line in 2021, and there's not much excuse for ignoring that.
No, you can't control someone like that.
Otherwise I demand to know when you are next on holiday!
And you can easily see ICE doing something stupid during the World Cup
The US has enough bombs to keep this up for a long time, and have complete air superiority.
If they lack anything, it is air defence missiles, particularly against ballistic weapons.
They've still got tens if thousands of cheap anti-drone missiles (which were diverted from being sent to Ukraine last year).
I wouldn't rely on the war petering out before enormous damage could be done to gas production.
(Something which would precipitate a global depression, whose effects would persist for years.)
Are you sure you don't work in the Civil Service?
You cannot excuse those who elected the worst President in US history - who had already proven his complete unsuitability for office - on the basis that they selected an average candidate.
No political party is ever perfect. Demanding that or else you'll vote for an absurdity is in itself absurd.
Plus last year I didn't take my full holiday entitlement, so part of it rolled into this year.
This debate which Nick is having is not about freedom of religion. It is about how religion is expressed in a shared public space, and whether those expressions fit within the norms of a British culture.
Of course it is about that.
Denying it is to argue with reality.
If Iran and the USA both finish the group stage as runners-up they'll meet in the first knockout round in the World Cup.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-48673853
When the history comes to be written, the blame should attach to Trump, his supporters and apologists. And the moderate right has a terrible record around the world of policing the line between right and wrong.
But all the Dems can do is reflect and try to do better next time. That needn't (and probably doesn't) Trump Lite.
Pete Hegseth just declared he only wants Christian prayers for this war. No Jewish prayers. No Muslim prayers. He even dictates how you should pray. This is the Secretary of Defense acting like a religious dictator. Absolute insanity.
https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/2034842566995190087
The very boards did shrink,
Water, water everywhere,
But not a drop to drink.
(1) Because there are inherently sensible voices who actually do put Country before Politics
(2) Because Starmer is head and shuolder the best option (in any Party) we have on the Global Stage right now
(3) Because (2) means that the longer he remains he nullifies the idiotic Party Leaders to his Right and Left and maintains Labour Polling above what it might otherwise be.
(4) Because it gives candidates time to be seen to be supportive at a time of global crisis and not opportunists like Farage , Badenoch , Polanski and to a degree Davey
I cannot see a Leadership challenge in 2026 unless the ME crisis is resolved a lot quicker than we all anticipate.
https://bsky.app/profile/jaimi.bsky.social/post/3mh2drdm7u22u
The complete debasement of those guys to accept that humiliation too.
Perhaps we're talking Obama, Clinton, Reagan, JFK in American folklore, perhaps Blair, Thatcher, Macmillan in the UK (other lists are available), but whoever you put in, there are several Kemi's and Keir's for every Maggie and Tone.
The irony is that, terrible and transparent to many of us though he is, Trump has been a massively effective campaigner.
Thing like asking the Russians for an alliance (this was just before the Russian attack) - the offer was that in return for protecting Japan at that point (and helping to keep her empire), Japan would join with Russia in an attack on the US etc in a new war, 10 years later.
Some diplomats tried to come up with deals like - Japan isn’t occupied, military left alone, all conquests remain in Japanese hands. Yes, in August 1945, they thought they could keep the conquests. Well, the diplomats said that they had to get the deal parts the military.
All this was being read in Washington, via ULTRA. A chunk of the reason for not stopping the Manhattan Project “train” was the clear evidence that the Japanese government hadn’t worked out that they had lost the war.
It's a phrase that perfectly encapsulates media and political language, it takes something viscerally human and strips it of all humanity in one neat little package. The whole point of a soldier is that there's a person inside those boots. But "boots on the ground" reduces them to footwear and geography. It's almost accidental poetry in how thoroughly it dehumanises, you don't even get a body, just the bit that touches the floor.
It also does some very convenient political work. "Committing boots on the ground" sounds like a logistical decision, a resource allocation. "Sending young men and women into a war zone where they and our opponents may be killed or maimed" sounds like what it actually is.
It's part of a long tradition of military euphemism, of course, "collateral damage," "neutralising targets," but "boots on the ground" has the added offence of having seeped so completely into civilian journalism and political commentary that people use it without even registering it as jargon anymore. Newsreaders say it. Commentators say it. Politicians who've never been near a conflict zone say it with great authority.
Also…what other kind of ground presence would there be? Hats in the fucking air? It only makes sense as a contrast to air strikes or drones, which means we've normalised remote-control killing to the point where physically being present requires its own special euphemisms.
🙄
https://www.varsity.co.uk/sport/22092
Trump's America? Not so much...
It's worth looking at just how limited that ban is.
It's certainly nowhere even close to a general ban on public group prayer. And it's not aimed at a particular religion, but at a particular targeted activity.
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/abortion-clinic-safe-access-zones-non-statutory-guidance/non-statutory-guidance-on-abortion-clinic-safe-access-zones-accessible
..This guidance is designed to ensure that abortion service providers and everyone within Safe Access Zones are clear as to what is expected under the new law and that law enforcement agencies have a clear and consistent understanding around the enforcement of Safe Access Zones.
It is underpinned by key principles:
It is unacceptable for anyone to be harassed or distressed simply for exercising their legal right to access abortion services. The Government has always expected the police and local authorities to use their powers to deal with those who break the law.
The rights to gather, to express views and to manifest religious beliefs are a cornerstone of democracy in Britain and people should be free to gather and express their views, however uncomfortable they are to others, providing they do so within the law.
To be clear, this legislation only affects certain activities within 150 metres of a clinic or hospital. Not all protests are banned and neither does this amount to criminalising those who hold pro-life views who are in a Safe Access Zone. It does not affect people’s rights to gather or to express their views about abortion or to manifest their religious beliefs about abortion anywhere else.
It is vitally important that law enforcement agencies recognise the rights of both of those accessing or providing abortion services and protestors and, in enforcement, seek to balance their respective rights...
Voters pick who runs the show, they can't duck responsibility if that choice goes badly.
It's terrible electoral politics to say that, because nobody likes being told that they stuffed up. But I'm not running for election.
This disowning of the consequences of your actions drives me nuts.
I think the global economy is fucked, it’s just a matter of when.
The nature of war is changing before our eyes. “The front” has become a meaningless concept. How do you fight a war in such circumstances? Until drone defence radically improves I would suggest that you simply can’t.
I get my "not by April 1" winnings shortly I hope.
2028 looking overpriced at 15s on Betfair? SKS exhausted by another 30 months of Trump and time to bed in a chosen successor.
1) Trump is bored of it and has stopped providing much support in any case, so has no leverage to force peace on Putin's terms. Putin will never have a more supportive US administration than it does now in the future.
2) Ukraine's drone development has fundamentally altered attritional warfare in a similar way to machine guns in World War I. Trying to make territorial gains without aerial dominance just results in troops being slaughtered.
3) Ukraine has adequate military and economic support from Europe to maintain it's drone defences indefinitely, and manpower issues are reduced as robots do more of the heavy lifting.
I fail to see how Putin ends up with a better deal than a ceasefire on current territorial lines. Which I suspect Ukraine would accept.
But instead of doing it now he'll carry on until 100,000 or more Russians are dead...
It is not Biden/Harris's "fault" Trump was elected. He was elected fairly and squarely by a majority of voters and won the electoral college.
Neither is it Biden/Harris's "fault" that Trump has surrounded himself with yes-men (and Tulsi) and is suffering a terminal cognitive decline.
One could argue that installing an imbecile and wannabe dictator as the official Republican Presidential candidate was the "fault" of the Republican Party.