So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
What do you reckon are the best vegetables to grow at home?
New potatoes. Carrots too, chantenay are great fresh. You want things that are not in the ground a long time and are better really fresh. Sweetcorn can be good, but tends to go over quickly too. Broad beans are a good shout.
But the all time favourite is asparagus. As soon as you can plant a bed of asparagus (min 20 plants) and you will rejoice every year for about 8 weeks from 23rd April.
Bury a tin of the first baby new potatoes harvested in sand/sawdust and dig them up for Xmas dinner.
It is quite incredible that the UK is able to -on a good day in March, and with essentially none of the country covered in solar panels- generate more than 12GW of solar power. On a sunny summer day, around noon, it will probaly be more like 15-16GW. And by the middle of next year, it could be close to 20GW.
A combination of batteries for time shifting energy within a day, plus CCGTs and gas storage for the winter, offers a remarkable degree of energy security for a pretty low cost.
I note you specified in summer.
The problem we have is that we are not California with heavy summer air conditioning requirements.
Our energy demand troughs out at the summer, when the solar supply peaks.
Our energy demand peaks in the winter, when the solar supply troughs.
Batteries will get you through a day, but not a year.
And this is the problem with solar for the UK.
My inlaws have a fairly decent rooftop + battery setup. March to September, it produces more electricity than their consumption. Bottom of curve in December, it makes 15% of their consumption.
Obviously, you could overbuild more (Aug production is 2-3x consumption already!), but there are limits to this. They've probably only got enough roof to double the quantity of panels, there certainly isn't room for 6x the present install.
When you look at the day by day December production, it's very lumpy, so you'd need a massive battery to smooth out the variability, as well as an inverter sized to handle the full output off all the panels in order to benefit from the moments in December when the sun does come out.
They are on gas heating, and ICE cars, I dread to think what they'd need to install to support a heat pump.
You get an EV to qualify for a suitable tariff to charge your battery. Octopus’s night rate on IO is 3.5p per kWh as of April 1st
“Although President Donald Trump says he has ‘destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military Capability’, the 0% that remains is playing havoc with the global economy.” -The Economist
Sometimes nothing is a real cool hand.
As Bob said, when you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose.
In the same song he had the magical lines "You're invisible now, You've got no secrets to conceal".
A brilliant image about what gets people noticed or not.
Yep but it’s not one of our making or one anyone in Europe has any control or say over. We are merely passengers as various madmen play games of chance (because no-one has thought through or given any real thought to the reaction to their next move).
She's again talked herself in to an awful mess, this time over Nick Timothy.
Claims Starmer didn't attend event Timothy was referring to last year, not this year, last year as he was "sucking up to Jews". What the fuck?
Then claims her objection is because women were segregated at the back,? Despite the fact Timothy never mentioned segregation.
Refuses to admit its racism and Islamaphobia from Timothy.
(As an aside she ignores comments from a leading Jewish cleric who has called for her to sack Timothy, who points out some branches of Jewish faith also segregate men and women at prayer)
Then says her shadow cabinet needs new blood.
Seconds later claims that the majority of her shadow cabinet, who were in Boris, Truss and or Sunak Government Cabinet are OK as they didn't agree with any of the policy
Claims Brexit failure due to anybody but the Tories
When asked if Tories will do better than last year blames Sunak for last time locals held in 2025vand suggests Tories will do better in 2026 and win all the seats.
30 minutes of cluster fuck
Imagine 6 weeks...
You've been insisting for 48 hours that she would sack Timothy. I told you that you were wrong, she won't, and I offered you a bet on it
I note that you didn't take the bet
Political betting is a weird site where lots of the biggest posters show little or no interest in betting.
I’ve had a fiver, sorry @Foxy, on Leicester to go down.
As have I. the pessimist on the spot thinks they are going down, so who are we to argue?
It is quite incredible that the UK is able to -on a good day in March, and with essentially none of the country covered in solar panels- generate more than 12GW of solar power. On a sunny summer day, around noon, it will probaly be more like 15-16GW. And by the middle of next year, it could be close to 20GW.
A combination of batteries for time shifting energy within a day, plus CCGTs and gas storage for the winter, offers a remarkable degree of energy security for a pretty low cost.
I note you specified in summer.
The problem we have is that we are not California with heavy summer air conditioning requirements.
Our energy demand troughs out at the summer, when the solar supply peaks.
Our energy demand peaks in the winter, when the solar supply troughs.
Batteries will get you through a day, but not a year.
Winter gives you less output from panels.
But they are the cheapest bit of the system. It’s often the case, now, that you can buy a panel for less cost than good plywood.
The expensive bits are the power electronics to convert to mains voltages/AC and controllers.
So you can simply add more panels at very little cost.
This is one reason why some of the international connector projects (such as the one to Morocco) have stalled - cheaper to add panels.
Absolutely agreed, but then you still have the seasonality problem.
Either we are going to have magnitudes more energy than we need in the summer, and we should be finding a way to put that to productive good use which can be switched off in the winter.
Or we are not solving our security issues, which are primarily the winter.
Batteries will get you through a day, they help immensely, but over a 12 month period we need to be coping with our demand peaking in midwinter when the night is longest and solar is weakest.
Don't let great be the enemy of good.
And note one thing... almost none of the UK is covered in solar panels.
Your local Sainsbury's... is its roof covered in panels? Do all the houses on your street have panels? Does the local bus stop?
And stop worrying about the long term! Solar is really, really cheap right now. And it's going to keep getting cheaper. And those panels never stop generating power (they might degrade/oxidize a little over time, but they'll still be generating most of their rated capacity 30 years after install). Every year, we'll put more panels in. And every year, we'll add more batteries. And because the panels will be so cheap (and because batteries are getting that way too), we'll find that we have 3 or 4x UK summer power demand at some point.
Sure, we'll probably still use some gas. But that's OK. Stop worrying about it, just keep putting the panels up and keep adding the batteries, because they make economic sense.
Hegseth thinks we should be grateful for our 100% rise in the gas price.
"The world, the Middle East, our ungrateful allies in Europe, even segments of our own press, should be saying one thing to President Trump: Thank You!" .. https://x.com/Daractenus/status/2034611691485282671
But everything he says is “sound and fury, signifying nothing”. He's an idiot.
It is quite incredible that the UK is able to -on a good day in March, and with essentially none of the country covered in solar panels- generate more than 12GW of solar power. On a sunny summer day, around noon, it will probaly be more like 15-16GW. And by the middle of next year, it could be close to 20GW.
A combination of batteries for time shifting energy within a day, plus CCGTs and gas storage for the winter, offers a remarkable degree of energy security for a pretty low cost.
I note you specified in summer.
The problem we have is that we are not California with heavy summer air conditioning requirements.
Our energy demand troughs out at the summer, when the solar supply peaks.
Our energy demand peaks in the winter, when the solar supply troughs.
Batteries will get you through a day, but not a year.
And this is the problem with solar for the UK.
My inlaws have a fairly decent rooftop + battery setup. March to September, it produces more electricity than their consumption. Bottom of curve in December, it makes 15% of their consumption.
Obviously, you could overbuild more (Aug production is 2-3x consumption already!), but there are limits to this. They've probably only got enough roof to double the quantity of panels, there certainly isn't room for 6x the present install.
When you look at the day by day December production, it's very lumpy, so you'd need a massive battery to smooth out the variability, as well as an inverter sized to handle the full output off all the panels in order to benefit from the moments in December when the sun does come out.
They are on gas heating, and ICE cars, I dread to think what they'd need to install to support a heat pump.
You get an EV to qualify for a suitable tariff to charge your battery. Octopus’s night rate on IO is 3.5p per kWh as of April 1st
Yes, but Octopus have to get the electric from somewhere too - and they won't be getting it from solar for the same reason outlined above. Which brings us back to gas, particularly for when the wind isn't blowing either.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
What do you reckon are the best vegetables to grow at home?
New potatoes. Carrots too, chantenay are great fresh. You want things that are not in the ground a long time and are better really fresh. Sweetcorn can be good, but tends to go over quickly too. Broad beans are a good shout.
But the all time favourite is asparagus. As soon as you can plant a bed of asparagus (min 20 plants) and you will rejoice every year for about 8 weeks from 23rd April.
Bury a tin of the first baby new potatoes harvested in sand/sawdust and dig them up for Xmas dinner.
I think you can do better - try growing in a well insulated greenhouse from mid summer on, in a big pot. Can usually get new spuds at Christmas that way.
She's again talked herself in to an awful mess, this time over Nick Timothy.
Claims Starmer didn't attend event Timothy was referring to last year, not this year, last year as he was "sucking up to Jews". What the fuck?
Then claims her objection is because women were segregated at the back,? Despite the fact Timothy never mentioned segregation.
Refuses to admit its racism and Islamaphobia from Timothy.
(As an aside she ignores comments from a leading Jewish cleric who has called for her to sack Timothy, who points out some branches of Jewish faith also segregate men and women at prayer)
Then says her shadow cabinet needs new blood.
Seconds later claims that the majority of her shadow cabinet, who were in Boris, Truss and or Sunak Government Cabinet are OK as they didn't agree with any of the policy
Claims Brexit failure due to anybody but the Tories
When asked if Tories will do better than last year blames Sunak for last time locals held in 2025vand suggests Tories will do better in 2026 and win all the seats.
30 minutes of cluster fuck
Imagine 6 weeks...
You've been insisting for 48 hours that she would sack Timothy. I told you that you were wrong, she won't, and I offered you a bet on it
I note that you didn't take the bet
Political betting is a weird site where lots of the biggest posters show little or no interest in betting.
I’ve had a fiver, sorry @Foxy, on Leicester to go down.
I have lumped on a lot more than that!
I think Leicester for relegation is good value still.
My team is abject and folds easily, the others in the relegation zone have at least some fight in them.
I don't blame Rowlett, he was given a poisoned chalice by the owners.
Hegseth thinks we should be grateful for our 100% rise in the gas price.
"The world, the Middle East, our ungrateful allies in Europe, even segments of our own press, should be saying one thing to President Trump: Thank You!" .. https://x.com/Daractenus/status/2034611691485282671
It is quite incredible that the UK is able to -on a good day in March, and with essentially none of the country covered in solar panels- generate more than 12GW of solar power. On a sunny summer day, around noon, it will probaly be more like 15-16GW. And by the middle of next year, it could be close to 20GW.
A combination of batteries for time shifting energy within a day, plus CCGTs and gas storage for the winter, offers a remarkable degree of energy security for a pretty low cost.
I note you specified in summer.
The problem we have is that we are not California with heavy summer air conditioning requirements.
Our energy demand troughs out at the summer, when the solar supply peaks.
Our energy demand peaks in the winter, when the solar supply troughs.
Batteries will get you through a day, but not a year.
And this is the problem with solar for the UK.
My inlaws have a fairly decent rooftop + battery setup. March to September, it produces more electricity than their consumption. Bottom of curve in December, it makes 15% of their consumption.
Obviously, you could overbuild more (Aug production is 2-3x consumption already!), but there are limits to this. They've probably only got enough roof to double the quantity of panels, there certainly isn't room for 6x the present install.
When you look at the day by day December production, it's very lumpy, so you'd need a massive battery to smooth out the variability, as well as an inverter sized to handle the full output off all the panels in order to benefit from the moments in December when the sun does come out.
They are on gas heating, and ICE cars, I dread to think what they'd need to install to support a heat pump.
You get an EV to qualify for a suitable tariff to charge your battery. Octopus’s night rate on IO is 3.5p per kWh as of April 1st
Yes, but Octopus have to get the electric from somewhere too - and they won't be getting it from solar for the same reason outlined above. Which brings us back to gas, particularly for when the wind isn't blowing either.
“Although President Donald Trump says he has ‘destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military Capability’, the 0% that remains is playing havoc with the global economy.” -The Economist
Sometimes nothing is a real cool hand.
As Bob said, when you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose.
In the same song he had the magical lines "You're invisible now, You've got no secrets to conceal".
A brilliant image about what gets people noticed or not.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
What do you reckon are the best vegetables to grow at home?
New potatoes. Carrots too, chantenay are great fresh. You want things that are not in the ground a long time and are better really fresh. Sweetcorn can be good, but tends to go over quickly too. Broad beans are a good shout.
But the all time favourite is asparagus. As soon as you can plant a bed of asparagus (min 20 plants) and you will rejoice every year for about 8 weeks from 23rd April.
Bury a tin of the first baby new potatoes harvested in sand/sawdust and dig them up for Xmas dinner.
I think you can do better - try growing in a well insulated greenhouse from mid summer on, in a big pot. Can usually get new spuds at Christmas that way.
I am without a greenhouse unfortunately. Only just got a garden again! (New potators buried was a thing my grandparents and parents always did, i did when i used to have a garden before)
It is quite incredible that the UK is able to -on a good day in March, and with essentially none of the country covered in solar panels- generate more than 12GW of solar power. On a sunny summer day, around noon, it will probaly be more like 15-16GW. And by the middle of next year, it could be close to 20GW.
A combination of batteries for time shifting energy within a day, plus CCGTs and gas storage for the winter, offers a remarkable degree of energy security for a pretty low cost.
I note you specified in summer.
The problem we have is that we are not California with heavy summer air conditioning requirements.
Our energy demand troughs out at the summer, when the solar supply peaks.
Our energy demand peaks in the winter, when the solar supply troughs.
Batteries will get you through a day, but not a year.
And this is the problem with solar for the UK.
My inlaws have a fairly decent rooftop + battery setup. March to September, it produces more electricity than their consumption. Bottom of curve in December, it makes 15% of their consumption.
Obviously, you could overbuild more (Aug production is 2-3x consumption already!), but there are limits to this. They've probably only got enough roof to double the quantity of panels, there certainly isn't room for 6x the present install.
When you look at the day by day December production, it's very lumpy, so you'd need a massive battery to smooth out the variability, as well as an inverter sized to handle the full output off all the panels in order to benefit from the moments in December when the sun does come out.
They are on gas heating, and ICE cars, I dread to think what they'd need to install to support a heat pump.
You get an EV to qualify for a suitable tariff to charge your battery. Octopus’s night rate on IO is 3.5p per kWh as of April 1st
Yes, but Octopus have to get the electric from somewhere too - and they won't be getting it from solar for the same reason outlined above. Which brings us back to gas, particularly for when the wind isn't blowing either.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
What do you reckon are the best vegetables to grow at home?
New potatoes. Carrots too, chantenay are great fresh. You want things that are not in the ground a long time and are better really fresh. Sweetcorn can be good, but tends to go over quickly too. Broad beans are a good shout.
But the all time favourite is asparagus. As soon as you can plant a bed of asparagus (min 20 plants) and you will rejoice every year for about 8 weeks from 23rd April.
Bury a tin of the first baby new potatoes harvested in sand/sawdust and dig them up for Xmas dinner.
I think you can do better - try growing in a well insulated greenhouse from mid summer on, in a big pot. Can usually get new spuds at Christmas that way.
I am without a greenhouse unfortunately. Only just got a garden again! (New potators burird was a thing my grandparents and parents always did, i did when i used to have a garden before)
Try one of those plastic ones - fairly cheap - should work
It is quite incredible that the UK is able to -on a good day in March, and with essentially none of the country covered in solar panels- generate more than 12GW of solar power. On a sunny summer day, around noon, it will probaly be more like 15-16GW. And by the middle of next year, it could be close to 20GW.
A combination of batteries for time shifting energy within a day, plus CCGTs and gas storage for the winter, offers a remarkable degree of energy security for a pretty low cost.
I note you specified in summer.
The problem we have is that we are not California with heavy summer air conditioning requirements.
Our energy demand troughs out at the summer, when the solar supply peaks.
Our energy demand peaks in the winter, when the solar supply troughs.
Batteries will get you through a day, but not a year.
Winter gives you less output from panels.
But they are the cheapest bit of the system. It’s often the case, now, that you can buy a panel for less cost than good plywood.
The expensive bits are the power electronics to convert to mains voltages/AC and controllers.
So you can simply add more panels at very little cost.
This is one reason why some of the international connector projects (such as the one to Morocco) have stalled - cheaper to add panels.
Absolutely agreed, but then you still have the seasonality problem.
Either we are going to have magnitudes more energy than we need in the summer, and we should be finding a way to put that to productive good use which can be switched off in the winter.
Or we are not solving our security issues, which are primarily the winter.
Batteries will get you through a day, they help immensely, but over a 12 month period we need to be coping with our demand peaking in midwinter when the night is longest and solar is weakest.
Don't let great be the enemy of good.
And note one thing... almost none of the UK is covered in solar panels.
Your local Sainsbury's... is its roof covered in panels? Do all the houses on your street have panels? Does the local bus stop?
And stop worrying about the long term! Solar is really, really cheap right now. And it's going to keep getting cheaper. And those panels never stop generating power (they might degrade/oxidize a little over time, but they'll still be generating most of their rated capacity 30 years after install). Every year, we'll put more panels in. And every year, we'll add more batteries. And because the panels will be so cheap (and because batteries are getting that way too), we'll find that we have 3 or 4x UK summer power demand at some point.
Sure, we'll probably still use some gas. But that's OK. Stop worrying about it, just keep putting the panels up and keep adding the batteries, because they make economic sense.
Only mad dogs and Englishmen run their homes from the midday sun.
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
She's again talked herself in to an awful mess, this time over Nick Timothy.
Claims Starmer didn't attend event Timothy was referring to last year, not this year, last year as he was "sucking up to Jews". What the fuck?
Then claims her objection is because women were segregated at the back,? Despite the fact Timothy never mentioned segregation.
Refuses to admit its racism and Islamaphobia from Timothy.
(As an aside she ignores comments from a leading Jewish cleric who has called for her to sack Timothy, who points out some branches of Jewish faith also segregate men and women at prayer)
Then says her shadow cabinet needs new blood.
Seconds later claims that the majority of her shadow cabinet, who were in Boris, Truss and or Sunak Government Cabinet are OK as they didn't agree with any of the policy
Claims Brexit failure due to anybody but the Tories
When asked if Tories will do better than last year blames Sunak for last time locals held in 2025vand suggests Tories will do better in 2026 and win all the seats.
30 minutes of cluster fuck
Imagine 6 weeks...
Do you really think any of this verbal diarrhea is persuading anybody to your cause, whatever that is
Absolutely. We can make our own minds up.
Kemi gave a simple clear lead on Iran War - has not changed her mind at all, was always favoured allowing the US to use British bases, says it is only Keir Starmer who changed his position, not her or Conservative patty theirs. There was the £47B of savings identified as the funding base for spending promise, also claim everyone in her Shadow Cabinet stood up to the last Conservative government to try to prevent the mistakes being made, dubious claims maybe, but not disastrous presser as Brixian claims. just normal politics, as up to opposition parties to prove these claims untrue. The Timothy thing has pretty much run out of road now. Or would have done if Nick, Kemi, and Kevin could share the same line about what Nick’s serious point was. I don’t think Nick is helping Kemi at all here, and should just tap out of social media for a bit. The main danger of this finding media legs, is Jewsish and other religions give backing the Muslims for the event they done. The bit I didn’t like from Kemi’s presser - Starmer “the mother of all hypocrisy” at PMQs because he himself pulled out a Muslim event last year when he was “sucking up to British Jews”. I’m unsure “sucking up to the Jews” accusation the right sort of language senior politicians should use against each other. What do others think?
PS Cleverley didn’t say Kemi’s name through gritted teeth, he was warm and genially full of praise for her.
She's again talked herself in to an awful mess, this time over Nick Timothy.
Claims Starmer didn't attend event Timothy was referring to last year, not this year, last year as he was "sucking up to Jews". What the fuck?
Then claims her objection is because women were segregated at the back,? Despite the fact Timothy never mentioned segregation.
Refuses to admit its racism and Islamaphobia from Timothy.
(As an aside she ignores comments from a leading Jewish cleric who has called for her to sack Timothy, who points out some branches of Jewish faith also segregate men and women at prayer)
Then says her shadow cabinet needs new blood.
Seconds later claims that the majority of her shadow cabinet, who were in Boris, Truss and or Sunak Government Cabinet are OK as they didn't agree with any of the policy
Claims Brexit failure due to anybody but the Tories
When asked if Tories will do better than last year blames Sunak for last time locals held in 2025vand suggests Tories will do better in 2026 and win all the seats.
30 minutes of cluster fuck
Imagine 6 weeks...
You've been insisting for 48 hours that she would sack Timothy. I told you that you were wrong, she won't, and I offered you a bet on it
I note that you didn't take the bet
Political betting is a weird site where lots of the biggest posters show little or no interest in betting.
I’ve had a fiver, sorry @Foxy, on Leicester to go down.
As have I. the pessimist on the spot thinks they are going down, so who are we to argue?
I see no sign of improvement in the team, but punters need to allow for our management appealling the FFP point deduction. It is possible that points may appear out of the blue.
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
So a statement that does not blame the US or Israel at all for this mess. Are they for real?
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
And what can we actually do, that the US and Israelis can't?
EXCLUSIVE- QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA - From Reuters. This is bad.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
What do you reckon are the best vegetables to grow at home?
New potatoes. Carrots too, chantenay are great fresh. You want things that are not in the ground a long time and are better really fresh. Sweetcorn can be good, but tends to go over quickly too. Broad beans are a good shout.
But the all time favourite is asparagus. As soon as you can plant a bed of asparagus (min 20 plants) and you will rejoice every year for about 8 weeks from 23rd April.
Bury a tin of the first baby new potatoes harvested in sand/sawdust and dig them up for Xmas dinner.
I think you can do better - try growing in a well insulated greenhouse from mid summer on, in a big pot. Can usually get new spuds at Christmas that way.
I am without a greenhouse unfortunately. Only just got a garden again! (New potators burird was a thing my grandparents and parents always did, i did when i used to have a garden before)
Try one of those plastic ones - fairly cheap - should work
Will give it a go and bury a tin as cover! Im looking to try Jerusalem Artichokes out but naybe next year. Ive hit a lot of sorting to do in the garden firstso this year will be mainly spuds in containers, herb and salad beds and a couple of bean arches
EXCLUSIVE- QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA - From Reuters. This is bad.
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
And what can we actually do, that the US and Israelis can't?
Just want to be seen doing something, anything, but the power is with Trump, God forbid
@Amena__Bakr U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. may lift sanctions on Iranian oil that is already “on the water”…. WOW! They will do anything to keep the price down #OOTT
Fools!
So you're going to war, but you're allowing the people you're attacking to profiteer of the war you chose to have!?
Corrupt and incompetent fools.
I’m glad you’ve caught up with what everyone else was saying a week ago.
I never said I liked, agreed with or trusted Trump.
In fact, I said from the very beginning I thought Trump would screw this up and TACO out.
Trump is screwing this up and TACOing out of doing what is necessary.
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
And what can we actually do, that the US and Israelis can't?
Contribute launch platforms & our stock of air defence missiles I guess.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
EXCLUSIVE- QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA - From Reuters. This is bad.
And now we have three oil markets: Asia (Oman oil at $167), Brent ($113) and US (WTI $97)
There are always differences in pricing between the various markets, depending on refining capacity, shipping costs, etc. And that WTI-Brent spread, while wide, is less than you saw in 2011-2012.
The Oman spread through, has completely blown out... But that shouldn't be that surprising: it's the sour crude that much of the Asian refiners use, and -well- good luck getting a barrel of Oman crude through the straits right now.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
I'm intrigued by what you mean by COVID-defence? Super hot sauce to kill the virus?
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
So a statement that does not blame the US or Israel at all for this mess. Are they for real?
This is what passes for reality, these days.
At this rate I will be UnDictator of the UK by the end of the year.
EXCLUSIVE- QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA - From Reuters. This is bad.
Meanwhile, after three weeks, the ECB has opined that the war “has made the outlook significantly more uncertain”. Well spank my ass and call me Charlie, they may be right.
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
And what can we actually do, that the US and Israelis can't?
Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die for the special relationship.
She's again talked herself in to an awful mess, this time over Nick Timothy.
Claims Starmer didn't attend event Timothy was referring to last year, not this year, last year as he was "sucking up to Jews". What the fuck?
Then claims her objection is because women were segregated at the back,? Despite the fact Timothy never mentioned segregation.
Refuses to admit its racism and Islamaphobia from Timothy.
(As an aside she ignores comments from a leading Jewish cleric who has called for her to sack Timothy, who points out some branches of Jewish faith also segregate men and women at prayer)
Then says her shadow cabinet needs new blood.
Seconds later claims that the majority of her shadow cabinet, who were in Boris, Truss and or Sunak Government Cabinet are OK as they didn't agree with any of the policy
Claims Brexit failure due to anybody but the Tories
When asked if Tories will do better than last year blames Sunak for last time locals held in 2025vand suggests Tories will do better in 2026 and win all the seats.
30 minutes of cluster fuck
Imagine 6 weeks...
Do you really think any of this verbal diarrhea is persuading anybody to your cause, whatever that is
Absolutely. We can make our own minds up.
Kemi gave a simple clear lead on Iran War - has not changed her mind at all, was always favoured allowing the US to use British bases, says it is only Keir Starmer who changed his position, not her or Conservative patty theirs. There was the £47B of savings identified as the funding base for spending promise, also claim everyone in her Shadow Cabinet stood up to the last Conservative government to try to prevent the mistakes being made, dubious claims maybe, but not disastrous presser as Brixian claims. just normal politics, as up to opposition parties to prove these claims untrue. The Timothy thing has pretty much run out of road now. Or would have done if Nick, Kemi, and Kevin could share the same line about what Nick’s serious point was. I don’t think Nick is helping Kemi at all here, and should just tap out of social media for a bit. The main danger of this finding media legs, is Jewsish and other religions give backing the Muslims for the event they done. The bit I didn’t like from Kemi’s presser - Starmer “the mother of all hypocrisy” at PMQs because he himself pulled out a Muslim event last year when he was “sucking up to British Jews”. I’m unsure “sucking up to the Jews” accusation the right sort of language senior politicians should use against each other. What do others think?
PS Cleverley didn’t say Kemi’s name through gritted teeth, he was warm and genially full of praise for her.
On Cleverly my impression is that he has adopted the approach of Heseltine after he lost the leadership to Major. Just accepted it, and content to be a loyal and appreciative deputy, even though senior in age and experience.
Well the US must be pretty confident there’s not a lot left of Iranian military aircraft or viable air defences, they’re now operating Warthogs and Apaches in the Southern sector of Iran.
That’s good news for UAE and Saudi, if incoming drones are being taken out closer to the source.
Meanwhile, in the Northern sector the Israelis have taken out Iranian naval assets in the Caspian Sea. This route is the main artery for Iran-Russia trade, in both directions. That’s good news for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, after three weeks, the ECB has opined that the war “has made the outlook significantly more uncertain”. Well spank my ass and call me Charlie, they may be right.
They should really be focussing more on getting rid of Key and seeing if McCullum is open to a new strategy imo.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
I'm intrigued by what you mean by COVID-defence? Super hot sauce to kill the virus?
Some of it is hot enough ! A legacy of time living in Bradford, when curry-after-a-pint was about £3 .
I had to self-isolate, so did occasional big shops, and stocked up in advance in case I was *really* locked down for several months.
I think someone on PB has only just finished their pasta stock.
Well the US must be pretty confident there’s not a lot left of Iranian military aircraft or viable air defences, they’re now operating Warthogs and Apaches in the Southern sector of Iran.
That’s good news for UAE and Saudi, if incoming drones are being taken out closer to the source.
Meanwhile, in the Northern sector the Israelis have taken out Iranian naval assets in the Caspian Sea. This route is the main artery for Iran-Russia trade, in both directions. That’s good news for Ukraine.
It is quite incredible that the UK is able to -on a good day in March, and with essentially none of the country covered in solar panels- generate more than 12GW of solar power. On a sunny summer day, around noon, it will probaly be more like 15-16GW. And by the middle of next year, it could be close to 20GW.
A combination of batteries for time shifting energy within a day, plus CCGTs and gas storage for the winter, offers a remarkable degree of energy security for a pretty low cost.
I note you specified in summer.
The problem we have is that we are not California with heavy summer air conditioning requirements.
Our energy demand troughs out at the summer, when the solar supply peaks.
Our energy demand peaks in the winter, when the solar supply troughs.
Batteries will get you through a day, but not a year.
And this is the problem with solar for the UK.
My inlaws have a fairly decent rooftop + battery setup. March to September, it produces more electricity than their consumption. Bottom of curve in December, it makes 15% of their consumption.
Obviously, you could overbuild more (Aug production is 2-3x consumption already!), but there are limits to this. They've probably only got enough roof to double the quantity of panels, there certainly isn't room for 6x the present install.
When you look at the day by day December production, it's very lumpy, so you'd need a massive battery to smooth out the variability, as well as an inverter sized to handle the full output off all the panels in order to benefit from the moments in December when the sun does come out.
They are on gas heating, and ICE cars, I dread to think what they'd need to install to support a heat pump.
You get an EV to qualify for a suitable tariff to charge your battery. Octopus’s night rate on IO is 3.5p per kWh as of April 1st
Yes, but Octopus have to get the electric from somewhere too - and they won't be getting it from solar for the same reason outlined above. Which brings us back to gas, particularly for when the wind isn't blowing either.
They will be getting it from base load, the electrical energy they have to create because it costs more to turn it off. This overnight energy is very cheap because it has to be sold or lost.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
I'm intrigued by what you mean by COVID-defence? Super hot sauce to kill the virus?
Some of it is hot enough ! A legacy of time living in Bradford, when curry-after-a-pint was about £3 .
I had to self-isolate, so did occasional big shops, and stocked up in advance in case I was *really* locked down for several months.
I think someone on PB has only just finished their pasta stock.
One thing pisses me off about covid stockpiling. It was the arseholes who took two boxes of test kits home every day for months, are STILL using them (even though out of date) and have the gall to moan about how much money the government wasted on Test and Trace...
I kinda miss the weird meals my wife and I ate during the first few weeks when the shops were disrupted. Pasta made with tomato soup, that kind of thing. We have way too much tinned food in our cupboards and our two freezers are full so assuming we have electric we could last for months at chez Tubbs, but the meals might get a bit odd...
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
And what can we actually do, that the US and Israelis can't?
Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die for the special relationship.
IMO that's quite carefully nuanced. They will want an agreement with Iran, as was the case during the last time around, the most substantial force to come from the USA, and for hostilities to be kept away from their forces.
By my (AI) numbers, those navies have 100+ destroyers and frigates in headline numbers - compared to the USN total of 74 Arleigh-Burkes plus other odds and sods. And the USN has around 5-6 Aircraft Carriers to molly-coddle at any one time, which need 3 or 4 each.
It will aim to stop Trumpski going berserk by offering support towards a way out, whilst stopping him flouncing entirely.
Maybe the most useful thing we could do at this point to help out the US would be to team up with France and occupy the Suez Canal to make sure it remains open to allow oil through from the Red Sea.
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
I'm intrigued by what you mean by COVID-defence? Super hot sauce to kill the virus?
Some of it is hot enough ! A legacy of time living in Bradford, when curry-after-a-pint was about £3 .
I had to self-isolate, so did occasional big shops, and stocked up in advance in case I was *really* locked down for several months.
I think someone on PB has only just finished their pasta stock.
One thing pisses me off about covid stockpiling. It was the arseholes who took two boxes of test kits home every day for months, are STILL using them (even though out of date) and have the gall to moan about how much money the government wasted on Test and Trace...
I kinda miss the weird meals my wife and I ate during the first few weeks when the shops were disrupted. Pasta made with tomato soup, that kind of thing. We have way too much tinned food in our cupboards and our two freezers are full so assuming we have electric we could last for months at chez Tubbs, but the meals might get a bit odd...
I did my stocking very early on in the start of the pandemic masked up at 9pm in the evenings in a deserted Aldi, and my test kits actually came through the post when we finally got into those - there being no guarantee I would be able to get out. At the time I was heavily immuno-compromised with a leukemia diagnosis, so I did not pussyfoot.
Well the US must be pretty confident there’s not a lot left of Iranian military aircraft or viable air defences, they’re now operating Warthogs and Apaches in the Southern sector of Iran.
That’s good news for UAE and Saudi, if incoming drones are being taken out closer to the source.
Meanwhile, in the Northern sector the Israelis have taken out Iranian naval assets in the Caspian Sea. This route is the main artery for Iran-Russia trade, in both directions. That’s good news for Ukraine.
Starlink on planes is great: proper internet speeds.
They’re great. Just launched in UAE the other day, will be trying to get my hands on one in the next couple of weeks to use as an emergency backup for one of my clients.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
I'm intrigued by what you mean by COVID-defence? Super hot sauce to kill the virus?
Some of it is hot enough ! A legacy of time living in Bradford, when curry-after-a-pint was about £3 .
I had to self-isolate, so did occasional big shops, and stocked up in advance in case I was *really* locked down for several months.
I think someone on PB has only just finished their pasta stock.
One thing pisses me off about covid stockpiling. It was the arseholes who took two boxes of test kits home every day for months, are STILL using them (even though out of date) and have the gall to moan about how much money the government wasted on Test and Trace...
The self test kits, and the "test and trace" nonsense were two different things. The former was (and is) both relatively cheap, and very useful. The latter cost billions for no real benefit.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
I'm intrigued by what you mean by COVID-defence? Super hot sauce to kill the virus?
Some of it is hot enough ! A legacy of time living in Bradford, when curry-after-a-pint was about £3 .
I had to self-isolate, so did occasional big shops, and stocked up in advance in case I was *really* locked down for several months.
I think someone on PB has only just finished their pasta stock.
One thing pisses me off about covid stockpiling. It was the arseholes who took two boxes of test kits home every day for months, are STILL using them (even though out of date) and have the gall to moan about how much money the government wasted on Test and Trace...
I kinda miss the weird meals my wife and I ate during the first few weeks when the shops were disrupted. Pasta made with tomato soup, that kind of thing. We have way too much tinned food in our cupboards and our two freezers are full so assuming we have electric we could last for months at chez Tubbs, but the meals might get a bit odd...
I did my stocking very early at 9pm in the evenings in a deserted Aldi, and my test kits actually came through the post when we finally got into those - there being no guarantee I would be able to get out. At the time I was heavily immuno-compromised with a leukemia diagnosis, so I did not pussyfoot.
At the uni you could pick up two boxes of test kits a day. Some of my colleagues did it every day, week in, week out.
You have my sympathy with the diagnosis. I had APL in 2012 (happily been in remission since then). Weirdly I was sent a letter advising me to shield on the very last day of shielding. I ignored it. The data was a bit odd. I 'think' that as a patient in full remission my immune system was/is as good as the next person. I certainly don't get any more bugs etc than my wife. I wondered at the time if having leukemia in the past 10 years was bundled into chronic leukemias, hence the late advice.
I though this last paragraph in the Carbon Brief article linked to earlier (on the role of gas in electricity prices) is the one that encapsulates my thinking about past and likely future government subsidies to energy costs.
“Marginal pricing is uncomfortable in volatile times. But discomfort is not evidence of failure. It is often evidence that the system is telling the truth. And, in energy markets, obscuring the truth is usually more expensive than confronting it.”
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
This isn't the smoking gun you think it is.
What a stupid comment
It is simply publishing a statement by the UK and it's allies that is topical and informative to this forum
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
I'm intrigued by what you mean by COVID-defence? Super hot sauce to kill the virus?
Some of it is hot enough ! A legacy of time living in Bradford, when curry-after-a-pint was about £3 .
I had to self-isolate, so did occasional big shops, and stocked up in advance in case I was *really* locked down for several months.
I think someone on PB has only just finished their pasta stock.
One thing pisses me off about covid stockpiling. It was the arseholes who took two boxes of test kits home every day for months, are STILL using them (even though out of date) and have the gall to moan about how much money the government wasted on Test and Trace...
The self test kits, and the "test and trace" nonsense were two different things. The former was (and is) both relatively cheap, and very useful. The latter cost billions for no real benefit.
Not really - the testing kits came from the big number that people liked to moan about.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
I'm intrigued by what you mean by COVID-defence? Super hot sauce to kill the virus?
Some of it is hot enough ! A legacy of time living in Bradford, when curry-after-a-pint was about £3 .
I had to self-isolate, so did occasional big shops, and stocked up in advance in case I was *really* locked down for several months.
I think someone on PB has only just finished their pasta stock.
One thing pisses me off about covid stockpiling. It was the arseholes who took two boxes of test kits home every day for months, are STILL using them (even though out of date) and have the gall to moan about how much money the government wasted on Test and Trace...
I kinda miss the weird meals my wife and I ate during the first few weeks when the shops were disrupted. Pasta made with tomato soup, that kind of thing. We have way too much tinned food in our cupboards and our two freezers are full so assuming we have electric we could last for months at chez Tubbs, but the meals might get a bit odd...
I did my stocking very early at 9pm in the evenings in a deserted Aldi, and my test kits actually came through the post when we finally got into those - there being no guarantee I would be able to get out. At the time I was heavily immuno-compromised with a leukemia diagnosis, so I did not pussyfoot.
At the uni you could pick up two boxes of test kits a day. Some of my colleagues did it every day, week in, week out.
You have my sympathy with the diagnosis. I had APL in 2012 (happily been in remission since then). Weirdly I was sent a letter advising me to shield on the very last day of shielding. I ignored it. The data was a bit odd. I 'think' that as a patient in full remission my immune system was/is as good as the next person. I certainly don't get any more bugs etc than my wife. I wondered at the time if having leukemia in the past 10 years was bundled into chronic leukemias, hence the late advice.
It was all a bit hectic. Parent died in late November, followed by "get up for breakfast then back to bed for half the day to recover" loss of energy collapse in late January !
I guess Europe is already screwed, as it doesn't get a mention on the list ?
Seven clocks are running. None of them negotiable. All of them counting down to the same weeks.
The planting clock. Mid-April is the biological deadline for corn and soybean planting across the US Midwest. Every day that passes without nitrogen becoming affordable and available narrows the window for corn. USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres from 98.8 million. Soybeans rising to 85 million from 81.2 million. The seeds that go into the ground in the next three weeks determine America’s grain harvest in October. The decision is irreversible.
The USDA clock. March 31. Prospective Plantings. The report that converts farmer intentions into official data. Every acreage number, every corn-soy ratio, every nitrogen-dependent calculation becomes a published fact that traders, governments, and food agencies will use to model global supply for the next twelve months. The number arrives in twelve days.
The FAO clock. April 3. The Food Price Index. The first global reading that captures post-Hormuz commodity prices across cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar. This reading will incorporate oil above $100, urea at $610, LNG halted, packaging repriced, and freight surcharges of $500 to $1,500 per container. The number that determines whether the UN declares a food emergency arrives in fifteen days.
The pharmaceutical clock. India’s API inventory buffers are two to three months, measured from the war’s onset on February 28. Late May is the depletion window. Methanol at 87.7 percent Hormuz exposure feeds the solvent chain for paracetamol, ibuprofen, metformin, and antibiotics.
The China crude clock. FGE NexantECA confirmed China is drawing commercial reserves at up to one million barrels per day. The draw sustains refinery operations for four to six weeks from March 19. Mid-April to late April is the exhaustion window. After that, China faces three options: accelerate Russian pipeline imports, reroute at massive premium, or crack open the strategic petroleum reserve.
The helium clock. SK Hynix and Samsung hold two to three months of helium inventory. Late May to early June is the depletion window. South Korea imports 64.7 percent of its helium from Qatar. Ras Laffan is offline. If helium buffers deplete before alternative supply arrives, semiconductor fabrication faces rationing. The AI hardware supply chain hits a physical wall measured in months, not quarters.
The insurance clock. Solvency II requires 30 to 60 days of zero incidents before P&I clubs can reinstate war risk coverage. Even after a ceasefire, the insurance normalisation takes six to sixteen months based on the Red Sea precedent of 26 months and counting. The logistics system lags the financial relief rally by the longest duration of any clock in this crisis... https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2034591985584193828
Hegseth thinks we should be grateful for our 100% rise in the gas price.
"The world, the Middle East, our ungrateful allies in Europe, even segments of our own press, should be saying one thing to President Trump: Thank You!" .. https://x.com/Daractenus/status/2034611691485282671
He pronounces 'fuck' in a really odd way, that Hegseth.
ETC Hesgeth -> Hegseth - I've been spelling his name wrong for ages!
ETA: Ah, I think dixiedean was thinking along similar lines!
Maybe the most useful thing we could do at this point to help out the US would be to team up with France and occupy the Suez Canal to make sure it remains open to allow oil through from the Red Sea.
Perhaps we need to incite Israel to attack it in order to give an excuse to invase...
It is quite incredible that the UK is able to -on a good day in March, and with essentially none of the country covered in solar panels- generate more than 12GW of solar power. On a sunny summer day, around noon, it will probaly be more like 15-16GW. And by the middle of next year, it could be close to 20GW.
A combination of batteries for time shifting energy within a day, plus CCGTs and gas storage for the winter, offers a remarkable degree of energy security for a pretty low cost.
I note you specified in summer.
The problem we have is that we are not California with heavy summer air conditioning requirements.
Our energy demand troughs out at the summer, when the solar supply peaks.
Our energy demand peaks in the winter, when the solar supply troughs.
Batteries will get you through a day, but not a year.
And this is the problem with solar for the UK.
My inlaws have a fairly decent rooftop + battery setup. March to September, it produces more electricity than their consumption. Bottom of curve in December, it makes 15% of their consumption.
Obviously, you could overbuild more (Aug production is 2-3x consumption already!), but there are limits to this. They've probably only got enough roof to double the quantity of panels, there certainly isn't room for 6x the present install.
When you look at the day by day December production, it's very lumpy, so you'd need a massive battery to smooth out the variability, as well as an inverter sized to handle the full output off all the panels in order to benefit from the moments in December when the sun does come out.
They are on gas heating, and ICE cars, I dread to think what they'd need to install to support a heat pump.
You get an EV to qualify for a suitable tariff to charge your battery. Octopus’s night rate on IO is 3.5p per kWh as of April 1st
Yes, but Octopus have to get the electric from somewhere too - and they won't be getting it from solar for the same reason outlined above. Which brings us back to gas, particularly for when the wind isn't blowing either.
They will be getting it from base load, the electrical energy they have to create because it costs more to turn it off. This overnight energy is very cheap because it has to be sold or lost.
What base load? The whole net zero strategy has been to abolish baseload, and replace it with intermittent generation and storage.
It is quite incredible that the UK is able to -on a good day in March, and with essentially none of the country covered in solar panels- generate more than 12GW of solar power. On a sunny summer day, around noon, it will probaly be more like 15-16GW. And by the middle of next year, it could be close to 20GW.
A combination of batteries for time shifting energy within a day, plus CCGTs and gas storage for the winter, offers a remarkable degree of energy security for a pretty low cost.
I note you specified in summer.
The problem we have is that we are not California with heavy summer air conditioning requirements.
Our energy demand troughs out at the summer, when the solar supply peaks.
Our energy demand peaks in the winter, when the solar supply troughs.
Batteries will get you through a day, but not a year.
And this is the problem with solar for the UK.
My inlaws have a fairly decent rooftop + battery setup. March to September, it produces more electricity than their consumption. Bottom of curve in December, it makes 15% of their consumption.
Obviously, you could overbuild more (Aug production is 2-3x consumption already!), but there are limits to this. They've probably only got enough roof to double the quantity of panels, there certainly isn't room for 6x the present install.
When you look at the day by day December production, it's very lumpy, so you'd need a massive battery to smooth out the variability, as well as an inverter sized to handle the full output off all the panels in order to benefit from the moments in December when the sun does come out.
They are on gas heating, and ICE cars, I dread to think what they'd need to install to support a heat pump.
You get an EV to qualify for a suitable tariff to charge your battery. Octopus’s night rate on IO is 3.5p per kWh as of April 1st
Yes, but Octopus have to get the electric from somewhere too - and they won't be getting it from solar for the same reason outlined above. Which brings us back to gas, particularly for when the wind isn't blowing either.
They will be getting it from base load, the electrical energy they have to create because it costs more to turn it off. This overnight energy is very cheap because it has to be sold or lost.
What base load? The whole net zero strategy has been to abolish baseload, and replace it with intermittent generation and storage.
I think it is to make the electronic border run more smoothly for eg pre-clearance, and is not unusual.
There were warnings of problems some weeks ago due to lack of notice and "computer says no" problems for people who were lawful entrants, if eg they were abroad on the wrong passport with the other one in the UK, and they would be stuck with iirc an auto fine for the airline.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
I've was doing a kitchen clear out last night, and I discovered a cache of COVID-defence table sauces and pasta / curry toppings !
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
I'm intrigued by what you mean by COVID-defence? Super hot sauce to kill the virus?
Some of it is hot enough ! A legacy of time living in Bradford, when curry-after-a-pint was about £3 .
I had to self-isolate, so did occasional big shops, and stocked up in advance in case I was *really* locked down for several months.
I think someone on PB has only just finished their pasta stock.
One thing pisses me off about covid stockpiling. It was the arseholes who took two boxes of test kits home every day for months, are STILL using them (even though out of date) and have the gall to moan about how much money the government wasted on Test and Trace...
The self test kits, and the "test and trace" nonsense were two different things. The former was (and is) both relatively cheap, and very useful. The latter cost billions for no real benefit.
Not really - the testing kits came from the big number that people liked to moan about.
There's at least an order of magnitude difference win cost between the two things. Test and trace cost around £37bn; the total spent on lateral flow tests was maybe three or four billion. And the latter were, and still are useful.
So, can't afford to buy heating oil. Tank is half full and we're only running the boiler 2 hours a day now anyway.
And God alone knows what the price of petrol is now for the boy's Mini.
The price of *everything* is about to go shooting up. Have just nailed down a new mortgage deal before the deal got pulled. Cost 20 basis points vs last week, but its only going in one direction.
I read online that the cost food, a reasonable chunk is fertiliser. Well that is going through the roof so expect serious food inflation later in the year too.
I’ve got plenty of dried pasta, flour and rice as well as tins of stuff.
Buy what you can because the price of *everything* is going to shoot up.
Because TACO we can hope for an end to this war in the coming weeks. At which point supplies can start to resume to normal. Which means a hard bump in prices of maybe 3.6 months. Not Great. Not Terrible.
Then again, Trump is a demented twat and America is massively exposed to the continuing regime it can't remove, so maybe this grinds on for months. In which case we're fucked. A bigger inflationary spike than we had with the Ukraine war.
I agree, it is going to be brutal and markets have yet to wake up to it.
I did a Costco trip yesterday and the freezer is now full too.
It annoys my wife when I buy extra food but I have hiding places. Better safe than sorry.
I honestly cannot see an end to this anytime soon.
What do you reckon are the best vegetables to grow at home?
New potatoes. Carrots too, chantenay are great fresh. You want things that are not in the ground a long time and are better really fresh. Sweetcorn can be good, but tends to go over quickly too. Broad beans are a good shout.
But the all time favourite is asparagus. As soon as you can plant a bed of asparagus (min 20 plants) and you will rejoice every year for about 8 weeks from 23rd April.
Bury a tin of the first baby new potatoes harvested in sand/sawdust and dig them up for Xmas dinner.
Won't tinned potatoes keep just as well in the cupboard?
The inquiry predates Kent’s departure on Tuesday from his post as director of the national counterterrorism center, where he had overseen the analysis of terrorist threats, according to Semafor and CBS News. The FBI declined to comment on the existence of any such investigation...
Kent insisted that there was no evidence that Iran was close to gaining a nuclear weapon or posed an imminent threat to the US. “There was no intelligence that said, ‘Hey, on whatever day it was, March 1st, the Iranians are going to launch this big sneak attack – they’re going to do some kind of a 9/11, Pearl Harbor, et cetera, they are going to attack one of our bases.’ There was none of that intelligence.”
Instead, Kent alleged, Trump’s hand was effectively forced by Israel. “The Israelis drove the decision to take this action,” he said, claiming that prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials lobbied the president with claims that did not align with established intelligence channels.
Kent added: “I know how this works. I know the Israeli officials - some in intelligence, some in government – will come to US government officials and they will say all kinds of things that we know from our intelligence just simply isn’t true. They’ll say, hey, I’m giving you a preview, it’s not in intelligence channels yet, but here’s what’s gonna happen, and that doesn’t usually come to fruition.”....
Kent’s work at the National Counterterrorism Center was overseen by director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who on Wednesday said it was up to Trump — and Trump alone — to decide whether Iran posed a threat.
Gabbard, a veteran and former congresswoman from Hawaii, previously criticized talk of military strikes in Iran. She has not said what she thinks of the current strikes and a spokesperson has declined to respond to questions.
The White House pushed back forcefully when Kent resigned. Trump dismissed him as “weak on security”, insisting that Iran represented “a tremendous threat” and suggesting that those who disagreed lacked judgement. “If somebody didn’t think it was a threat, we don’t want those people,” he said.
The US left have been calling Kent out as anti-Semite for a long time. If you look at his resignation letter he is not actually blaming Trump for the war, but blaming a shadowy conspiracy of Jews {that may not even exist in reality} as reason US went to war on Iran. He might not be the white knight of sanity he’s being used as.
He's certainly not a white knight; another MAGA loon. (He's also repeating a conspiracy theory that Charlie Kirk was murdered at the behest of Israel.)
But the administration is arguing that they were crazy to appoint this guy, when it was quite clear what kind of person he was when Trump chose him.
Along with making the argument that any intelligence assessment which doesn't agree with Trump's vibes can be dismissed.
It's just a tower of nonsense.
But a crazy, MAGA Loon Government would be crazy not to appoint Crazy, MAGA Loons into it?
In one of Isaac Asimov's joke collections, there is (from memory) this joke:
A young Jewish man sees an advertisement for a radio announcer and goes to the station to apply for the job. When he comes back his parents asks him if he got the job. He says no, and they ask him why not.
He says, stuttering, "Because they are p p p p prejudiced."
As it happens, before I read Asimov's version I had heard the same joke from a black teacher, when I was working in a black school on the west side of Chicago. Except, of course, that the young man in the joke was black.
Now, would I tell either version of the joke? No, because I am neither Jewish nor black. (I can -- and do -- joke about old guys.)
Comments
"You're invisible now,
You've got no secrets to conceal".
A brilliant image about what gets people noticed or not.
And note one thing... almost none of the UK is covered in solar panels.
Your local Sainsbury's... is its roof covered in panels? Do all the houses on your street have panels? Does the local bus stop?
And stop worrying about the long term! Solar is really, really cheap right now. And it's going to keep getting cheaper. And those panels never stop generating power (they might degrade/oxidize a little over time, but they'll still be generating most of their rated capacity 30 years after install). Every year, we'll put more panels in. And every year, we'll add more batteries. And because the panels will be so cheap (and because batteries are getting that way too), we'll find that we have 3 or 4x UK summer power demand at some point.
Sure, we'll probably still use some gas. But that's OK. Stop worrying about it, just keep putting the panels up and keep adding the batteries, because they make economic sense.
Which brings us back to gas, particularly for when the wind isn't blowing either.
I think Leicester for relegation is good value still.
My team is abject and folds easily, the others in the relegation zone have at least some fight in them.
I don't blame Rowlett, he was given a poisoned chalice by the owners.
UK and five other nations 'ready to contribute' to ensuring safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
The UK says it's ready to help ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, the UK also says it will work to stabilise energy markets.
Read the full joint statement...
"We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
"We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
"We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
"Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
"Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
"We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
"We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
"We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
"We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
"We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
"We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."
Kemi gave a simple clear lead on Iran War - has not changed her mind at all, was always favoured allowing the US to use British bases, says it is only Keir Starmer who changed his position, not her or Conservative patty theirs.
There was the £47B of savings identified as the funding base for spending promise, also claim everyone in her Shadow Cabinet stood up to the last Conservative government to try to prevent the mistakes being made, dubious claims maybe, but not disastrous presser as Brixian claims. just normal politics, as up to opposition parties to prove these claims untrue.
The Timothy thing has pretty much run out of road now. Or would have done if Nick, Kemi, and Kevin could share the same line about what Nick’s serious point was. I don’t think Nick is helping Kemi at all here, and should just tap out of social media for a bit. The main danger of this finding media legs, is Jewsish and other religions give backing the Muslims for the event they done.
The bit I didn’t like from Kemi’s presser - Starmer “the mother of all hypocrisy” at PMQs because he himself pulled out a Muslim event last year when he was “sucking up to British Jews”. I’m unsure “sucking up to the Jews” accusation the right sort of language senior politicians should use against each other. What do others think?
PS Cleverley didn’t say Kemi’s name through gritted teeth, he was warm and genially full of praise for her.
Sir Useless has just told Iran it is breaking international law.
I expect the ayatollahs to fold any minute now
EXCLUSIVE- QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA
- From Reuters.
This is bad.
Im looking to try Jerusalem Artichokes out but naybe next year. Ive hit a lot of sorting to do in the garden firstso this year will be mainly spuds in containers, herb and salad beds and a couple of bean arches
That would be the end of things...
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2034606027375563091
And now we have three oil markets: Asia (Oman oil at $167), Brent ($113) and US (WTI $97)
In fact, I said from the very beginning I thought Trump would screw this up and TACO out.
Trump is screwing this up and TACOing out of doing what is necessary.
Just as I expected.
Oh, and we do have functioning mine sweeper fleet, whereas the US minesweeper capability (such as it is) is apparently busy sailing to Singapore for some reason: https://www.twz.com/sea/u-s-navy-minesweepers-stationed-in-middle-east-are-now-in-singapore
I think they may still be OK, but we shall see...
The Oman spread through, has completely blown out... But that shouldn't be that surprising: it's the sour crude that much of the Asian refiners use, and -well- good luck getting a barrel of Oman crude through the straits right now.
At this rate I will be UnDictator of the UK by the end of the year.
Well spank my ass and call me Charlie, they may be right.
https://x.com/thepatriotoasis/status/2034608559741182123
That’s good news for UAE and Saudi, if incoming drones are being taken out closer to the source.
Meanwhile, in the Northern sector the Israelis have taken out Iranian naval assets in the Caspian Sea. This route is the main artery for Iran-Russia trade, in both directions. That’s good news for Ukraine.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2034354234997563744
I had to self-isolate, so did occasional big shops, and stocked up in advance in case I was *really* locked down for several months.
I think someone on PB has only just finished their pasta stock.
I kinda miss the weird meals my wife and I ate during the first few weeks when the shops were disrupted. Pasta made with tomato soup, that kind of thing. We have way too much tinned food in our cupboards and our two freezers are full so assuming we have electric we could last for months at chez Tubbs, but the meals might get a bit odd...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dhs-contractors-told-white-house-officials-asked-pay-corey-lewandowski-rcna263744
By my (AI) numbers, those navies have 100+ destroyers and frigates in headline numbers - compared to the USN total of 74 Arleigh-Burkes plus other odds and sods. And the USN has around 5-6 Aircraft Carriers to molly-coddle at any one time, which need 3 or 4 each.
It will aim to stop Trumpski going berserk by offering support towards a way out, whilst stopping him flouncing entirely.
This may take some time !!
The former was (and is) both relatively cheap, and very useful. The latter cost billions for no real benefit.
You have my sympathy with the diagnosis. I had APL in 2012 (happily been in remission since then). Weirdly I was sent a letter advising me to shield on the very last day of shielding. I ignored it. The data was a bit odd. I 'think' that as a patient in full remission my immune system was/is as good as the next person. I certainly don't get any more bugs etc than my wife. I wondered at the time if having leukemia in the past 10 years was bundled into chronic leukemias, hence the late advice.
“Marginal pricing is uncomfortable in volatile times. But discomfort is not evidence of failure. It is often evidence that the system is telling the truth. And, in energy markets, obscuring the truth is usually more expensive than confronting it.”
It is simply publishing a statement by the UK and it's allies that is topical and informative to this forum
Seven clocks are running. None of them negotiable. All of them counting down to the same weeks.
The planting clock. Mid-April is the biological deadline for corn and soybean planting across the US Midwest. Every day that passes without nitrogen becoming affordable and available narrows the window for corn. USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres from 98.8 million. Soybeans rising to 85 million from 81.2 million. The seeds that go into the ground in the next three weeks determine America’s grain harvest in October. The decision is irreversible.
The USDA clock. March 31. Prospective Plantings. The report that converts farmer intentions into official data. Every acreage number, every corn-soy ratio, every nitrogen-dependent calculation becomes a published fact that traders, governments, and food agencies will use to model global supply for the next twelve months. The number arrives in twelve days.
The FAO clock. April 3. The Food Price Index. The first global reading that captures post-Hormuz commodity prices across cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar. This reading will incorporate oil above $100, urea at $610, LNG halted, packaging repriced, and freight surcharges of $500 to $1,500 per container. The number that determines whether the UN declares a food emergency arrives in fifteen days.
The pharmaceutical clock. India’s API inventory buffers are two to three months, measured from the war’s onset on February 28. Late May is the depletion window. Methanol at 87.7 percent Hormuz exposure feeds the solvent chain for paracetamol, ibuprofen, metformin, and antibiotics.
The China crude clock. FGE NexantECA confirmed China is drawing commercial reserves at up to one million barrels per day. The draw sustains refinery operations for four to six weeks from March 19. Mid-April to late April is the exhaustion window. After that, China faces three options: accelerate Russian pipeline imports, reroute at massive premium, or crack open the strategic petroleum reserve.
The helium clock. SK Hynix and Samsung hold two to three months of helium inventory. Late May to early June is the depletion window. South Korea imports 64.7 percent of its helium from Qatar. Ras Laffan is offline. If helium buffers deplete before alternative supply arrives, semiconductor fabrication faces rationing. The AI hardware supply chain hits a physical wall measured in months, not quarters.
The insurance clock. Solvency II requires 30 to 60 days of zero incidents before P&I clubs can reinstate war risk coverage. Even after a ceasefire, the insurance normalisation takes six to sixteen months based on the Red Sea precedent of 26 months and counting. The logistics system lags the financial relief rally by the longest duration of any clock in this crisis...
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2034591985584193828
https://x.com/i/status/2034579135046029729
ETC Hesgeth -> Hegseth - I've been spelling his name wrong for ages!
ETA: Ah, I think dixiedean was thinking along similar lines!
Starmer down
No Poilievre effect here.
On the face of it, it looks like a lot of hassle and bother for a lot of people for no gain.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/19/uk-schoolgirl-stranded-denmark-dual-national-rules
https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0dxexdd8xo
There were warnings of problems some weeks ago due to lack of notice and "computer says no" problems for people who were lawful entrants, if eg they were abroad on the wrong passport with the other one in the UK, and they would be stuck with iirc an auto fine for the airline.
eg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jetq5ujtoiQ
NEW THREAD
Test and trace cost around £37bn; the total spent on lateral flow tests was maybe three or four billion. And the latter were, and still are useful.
· 4m
* US F-35 DAMAGED BY SUSPECTED IRANIAN FIRE MAKES EMERGENCY LANDING, SOURCES SAY -- CNN
@reuters.com
It’s a Catch-22.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lVZzILza2Y