Skip to content

(S)he who wields the knife never wears the crown? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,011
edited 7:45AM in General
(S)he who wields the knife never wears the crown? – politicalbetting.com

EXCL: Angela Rayner’s allies are increasingly confident the HMRC inquiry into her tax affairs will be resolved before the May local elections – a moment of high peril for Keir Starmer – paving her way for full return to frontline politics.https://t.co/HqYbGPpqkf

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,746
    edited 7:48AM
    1st, like Angela Rayner in a Labour members ballot.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,926
    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,092
    Rayner. Labours Liz Truss.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,973
    This is Labour which has great difficulty in replacing its leaders even when out of office. Do the usual rules apply?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,421
    edited 7:50AM
    That piece by Rentoul seems 'rattled' to say the very least. Dripping with contempt and wounded feelings.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,418
    Taz said:

    Rayner. Labours Liz Truss.

    The Conservative Party's Liz Truss did become Prime Minister, which is what the bookies pay out on.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,926
    AnneJGP said:

    This is Labour which has great difficulty in replacing its leaders even when out of office. Do the usual rules apply?

    My head says yes, my heart says no.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,006
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Taz said:

    Rayner. Labours Liz Truss.

    The Conservative Party's Liz Truss did become Prime Minister, which is what the bookies pay out on.
    Can you imagine that oaf representing us on the world stage.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,092
    Rayners intervention in favour of massively increasing the benefits bill by opposing Shabana Mahmood’s perfectly reasonable changes to ILR is nothing more than a naked attempt to cosy up to Union leaders, like those in Unison and Unite, who oppose the changes.

    It doesn’t matter what the cost to the taxpayer is. Rayner is nuts and the changes to ILR are popular.

    Labour has won the battle on immigration now she risks blowing it all up,again.

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,769
    Labour waits half a century to play catch-up on getting themselves a female leader. And then it goes with - Angela Rayner?

    Sheeeeesh.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,421
    FPT
    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Foxy said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2034453695027446085

    Contrary to reports from Axios, U.S. President Donald J. Trump states that the United States “knew nothing” about Wednesday’s attack by Israel against Iran’s South Pars Gas Field, adding that “Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LNG Gas facility.”

    President Trump states following today’s attack by Israel and retaliatory strikes by Iran, “NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”

    Trump still believes he's in control of events.
    When you go to war you're in control only of your own forces.
    Yes. It is not looking great for this intervention.

    I don't see what can now be achieved for it, other than an embarassing cessation of hostilities. Which is very sad for Iran's people.

    What you really want is for the army to go over to the Shah, turn on the IRGC, and then it's game over for the regime. But I feel the attacks have united the two.

    A more thoughtful US might have considered all the historical precedents there are for people rallying to their governments, even unpleasant or evil ones, once under attack from an enemy, and the lack of examples of where dropping bombs on people has led to fruitful political change.
    There have certainly been big pro-regime protests, but I'm not sure they're indicative of a rally - I would imagine the attendees already had a firm view.

    However, the regime remains very intact, and very in control of the streets.

    To negotiate from a strong position, Trump must stop the flow of Iranian oil and gas to Iran-sympathetic powers, and re-start the flow of Gulf oil to the West.

    I think I would probably just non-violently comandeer the tankers currently being sent to China, pay off the crews, and either keep them anchored somewhere or re-route them West. That way Iran is getting no oil out, and China won't pay for oil and gas it's not getting.
    So widening the war and involving other great powers in the conflict?

    Yep, that has never gone wrong before.
    I would not have got into the war in the first place. However, now that Trump is in it, the situation whereby Gulf oil exports are effectively stopped and Iranian ones may continue unhindered isn't really viable if there is to be a successful negotiated peace.
    Why could Trump not use his really really good best in the world military to stop Iran exporting any oil. They are supposedly very very great at pinpoint targetting and hav ethe best bombs and missiles etc etc , should be easy peasy given the war is already won a week ago.
    Even in big conflicts, it seems there's a lot of queasiness about interrupting energy flows. Neither America nor Russia did much very consistently to destroy ISIS's oil operation out of Syria.

    But in this case, Trump must turn this situation to his favour.

    He also needs to get Israel under control.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,124
    Anyone listen to Danny Dorling on R4? Britain the most unequal country in Europe with the possible exception of Bulgaria if you squint your eyes. It was one of the most equal in the 60s & 70s, the city of Sheffield the acme of equality TSE will be gratified to know. Where did it all go wrong? Answers beginning with T on a small postcard.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,304
    This is interesting. Personal portable drone defence.

    While it's a piece of crap, it's also very easy to see how it might be improved in terms of speed and guidance systems - and autonomous capability.

    Ukrainian anti-UAV expert Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov analyses the Russian “Yolka” autonomous interceptor drone.

    “I guess many will find this interesting. What I managed to find out about the 'Yolka' drone interceptor.
    1/..
    https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/2034446026791333927

    Imagine carrying half a dozen of some improved version in a backpack.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,578
    Rayner has however put herself in the position of effectively wanting her supporters and voters to back the Greens or LibDems in the local elections, which is why her timing appears unfortunate - as compared, for example, to staying loyal during the campaign period, getting her tax stuff finally resolved, and then launching her challenge in the summer?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,304
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    That piece by Rentoul seems 'rattled' to say the very least. Dripping with contempt and wounded feelings.

    Or is it just his usual tone and he's deeply sceptical of her prospects ?
    I don't have any skin in this game, and I agree with a lot of the analysis.

    I agree with him that the timing of her pitch is poor - at a minimum, she should have waited for the next mini-crisis.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,726
    Taz said:

    Rayners intervention in favour of massively increasing the benefits bill by opposing Shabana Mahmood’s perfectly reasonable changes to ILR is nothing more than a naked attempt to cosy up to Union leaders, like those in Unison and Unite, who oppose the changes.

    It doesn’t matter what the cost to the taxpayer is. Rayner is nuts and the changes to ILR are popular.

    Labour has won the battle on immigration now she risks blowing it all up,again.

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/

    Some on the left have spotted the large parliamentary majority that Labour has and wants to use it. They have also worked out that Rainer would never be elected as PM ever so best to mount a putsch now before time runs out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,763
    Certainly Rayner will challenge Starmer from the left if Labour are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May on a platform of reclaiming votes lost to the Greens (though at the risk of leaking centrist swing voters to the Tories and LDs).She would need to get 81 Labour MPs to nominate her which is not a certainty though as the article suggests but if she gets them membership polls show she would beat Starmer in a Labour members poll.

    In 1990 of course Tory rules meant while Heseltine prevented Thatcher winning outright in the first round, Major was able to join a second round to beat Heseltine who would likely have beaten Maggie in round two with Tory MPs. Labour leadership rules though mean that all nominated candidates by Labour MPs go to the members, there is no further round with Labour MPs or later joiners to the contest
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,926
    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,746
    In other news I see that Scotrail is going to replace their English cast-off HSTs....


    ....with English cast-off Class 222s.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,585
    OT. History is not going to to be kind to these wealthy malign crooks ....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQGnWJ8lVT8
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,769
    After yesterday' 1,710, another 1,520 Russian troops not reporting for duty today. (64 artillery/MLRS have also gone AWOL over these two days....)

    Russians used fog to launch an offensive. Seems the Ukrainian drones can see through it...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,304
    edited 8:08AM
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    I had a joke for you about the British Constitution, but I didn't write it down.
    That's OK; we can probably reassemble it from bits of your historic posts.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,092
    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    Rayners intervention in favour of massively increasing the benefits bill by opposing Shabana Mahmood’s perfectly reasonable changes to ILR is nothing more than a naked attempt to cosy up to Union leaders, like those in Unison and Unite, who oppose the changes.

    It doesn’t matter what the cost to the taxpayer is. Rayner is nuts and the changes to ILR are popular.

    Labour has won the battle on immigration now she risks blowing it all up,again.

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/

    Some on the left have spotted the large parliamentary majority that Labour has and wants to use it. They have also worked out that Rainer would never be elected as PM ever so best to mount a putsch now before time runs out.
    Interesting perspective and there’s a lot to that. May as well do it now. Salt the earth. I’d expect labour to, in 2029, the same way as the Tories in 2024.

    This, also, scuppers Shabana Mahmood who has ambitions for the leadership.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,926
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    I had a joke for you about the British Constitution, but I didn't write it down.
    That's OK; we can probably reassemble it from bits of your historic posts.
    Do we know if Foxy has ever written any letters to The Times?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,092
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    The Trump tax.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,769
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    There appears no rational reason for Israel to have attacked Iran's gas facilities. Other than to chuck gasoline on the fire. Throw all the pieces up in the air.

    12-D chess it isn't.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    Thank goodness for all the development in UK waters to bring new gas fields on stream.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,573
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    That piece by Rentoul seems 'rattled' to say the very least. Dripping with contempt and wounded feelings.

    Desperate attempt by Rentoul to make something out of very very little.

    Rayner is undoubtedly a big beast
    She's regularly before and since her temporary sabattical in opposition and Government made her feelings known.

    This is just another one of those cases.

    Let's also understand her background in care and her very valid views that we don't decimate care sector workers from overseas.

    Rentoul is very similar to Hodges, a fine prospect once now totally clapped out and irrelevant at middle age.

    A journalistic Phil Foden of you like.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,124
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    I had a joke for you about the British Constitution, but I didn't write it down.
    Did it involve good chaps?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,746
    Taz said:

    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    Rayners intervention in favour of massively increasing the benefits bill by opposing Shabana Mahmood’s perfectly reasonable changes to ILR is nothing more than a naked attempt to cosy up to Union leaders, like those in Unison and Unite, who oppose the changes.

    It doesn’t matter what the cost to the taxpayer is. Rayner is nuts and the changes to ILR are popular.

    Labour has won the battle on immigration now she risks blowing it all up,again.

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/

    Some on the left have spotted the large parliamentary majority that Labour has and wants to use it. They have also worked out that Rainer would never be elected as PM ever so best to mount a putsch now before time runs out.
    Interesting perspective and there’s a lot to that. May as well do it now. Salt the earth. I’d expect labour to, in 2029, the same way as the Tories in 2024.

    This, also, scuppers Shabana Mahmood who has ambitions for the leadership.
    Mahmood doesn't stand a chance if it goes to the membership. Sadly.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,191
    I think it depends on whether Labour MPs believe Angela Rayner would make a better PM than Keir Starmer in a straight swap. No-one likes Starmer but he hangs on faute de mieux. If it's Starmer versus unspecified not-Starmer, he stays
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,597
    I have long been an admirer of Rayner who is a far cannier politician than generally given credit for (albeit one with rather chaotic household finances).

    She recognises that Mahmoods proposals are not going to get through the PLP, thereby setting up another humiliating U turn. Starmer seems unable to see the obvious.

    In addition she is in line with majority opinion in the country that 5-10 years should be the line for Permanent Redidence and citizenship.

    She is also right that the British sense of fairness supports applying tighter rules only to new applicants, not people who are already legally here.

    Whatever the merits of Mahmoods bill, Rayner gets the politics. It is why I had her as PM at year end in the PB predictions contest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,597
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    I had a joke for you about the British Constitution, but I didn't write it down.
    Did it involve good chaps?
    No, thats my joke about sartorial standards for cowboys.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,578
    The Israeli spokesman on R4 now is effectively saying - while avoiding actually saying - that Trump knew about the oil field attack and is lying by saying he didn't
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,304
    edited 8:21AM
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    There appears no rational reason for Israel to have attacked Iran's gas facilities. Other than to chuck gasoline on the fire. Throw all the pieces up in the air.

    12-D chess it isn't.
    I posted on PB about a week into the war the observation from my Iranian heritage friends that belief that this war isn’t about removing the theocracy but stopping Iran being a functional state going forward.

    Stuff like this reinforces that.
    Destruction of their largest natural gas facility would utterly cripple Iran's domestic economy.
    If you wanted a failed state, it's a very effective way of bringing that about.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,905
    It seems the war is progressing, not necessarily to the Mad King's advantage...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,304
    Scott_xP said:

    It seems the war is progressing, not necessarily to the Mad King's advantage...

    Or that of the rest of the world.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,006
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT

    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Foxy said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2034453695027446085

    Contrary to reports from Axios, U.S. President Donald J. Trump states that the United States “knew nothing” about Wednesday’s attack by Israel against Iran’s South Pars Gas Field, adding that “Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LNG Gas facility.”

    President Trump states following today’s attack by Israel and retaliatory strikes by Iran, “NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”

    Trump still believes he's in control of events.
    When you go to war you're in control only of your own forces.
    Yes. It is not looking great for this intervention.

    I don't see what can now be achieved for it, other than an embarassing cessation of hostilities. Which is very sad for Iran's people.

    What you really want is for the army to go over to the Shah, turn on the IRGC, and then it's game over for the regime. But I feel the attacks have united the two.

    A more thoughtful US might have considered all the historical precedents there are for people rallying to their governments, even unpleasant or evil ones, once under attack from an enemy, and the lack of examples of where dropping bombs on people has led to fruitful political change.
    There have certainly been big pro-regime protests, but I'm not sure they're indicative of a rally - I would imagine the attendees already had a firm view.

    However, the regime remains very intact, and very in control of the streets.

    To negotiate from a strong position, Trump must stop the flow of Iranian oil and gas to Iran-sympathetic powers, and re-start the flow of Gulf oil to the West.

    I think I would probably just non-violently comandeer the tankers currently being sent to China, pay off the crews, and either keep them anchored somewhere or re-route them West. That way Iran is getting no oil out, and China won't pay for oil and gas it's not getting.
    So widening the war and involving other great powers in the conflict?

    Yep, that has never gone wrong before.
    I would not have got into the war in the first place. However, now that Trump is in it, the situation whereby Gulf oil exports are effectively stopped and Iranian ones may continue unhindered isn't really viable if there is to be a successful negotiated peace.
    Why could Trump not use his really really good best in the world military to stop Iran exporting any oil. They are supposedly very very great at pinpoint targetting and hav ethe best bombs and missiles etc etc , should be easy peasy given the war is already won a week ago.
    Even in big conflicts, it seems there's a lot of queasiness about interrupting energy flows. Neither America nor Russia did much very consistently to destroy ISIS's oil operation out of Syria.

    But in this case, Trump must turn this situation to his favour.

    He also needs to get Israel under control.
    To put it politely his hubris has absolutely F****d him big time and we will all pay the price.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,124
    edited 8:28AM
    IanB2 said:

    The Israeli spokesman on R4 now is effectively saying - while avoiding actually saying - that Trump knew about the oil field attack and is lying by saying he didn't

    He’s certainly doing a magnificent job of persuading people to Israel’s cause.

    Edit: lol, I just heard that the spokesman’s name was Alex Candour (I suspect it was spelled Kandor but nevertheless).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,926
    In light of recent events my bank's prediction for the war, our reasonable worst case scenario has been updated to reasonable best case scenario :neutral:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,905
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Iran’s attacks on gulf nations - Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait - continued overnight.

    Cathay Pacific has cancelled all flights to Dubai and Riyadh until the end of April.

    Oil is now up to $113 a barrel.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,191
    edited 8:27AM
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    There appears no rational reason for Israel to have attacked Iran's gas facilities. Other than to chuck gasoline on the fire. Throw all the pieces up in the air.

    12-D chess it isn't.
    I posted on PB about a week into the war the observation from my Iranian heritage friends that belief that this war isn’t about removing the theocracy but stopping Iran being a functional state going forward.

    Stuff like this reinforces that.
    Trump's intervention where he blamed Israel for the attack on Pars gas field is curious. It implied the US has no control over the war and is operating as a client of Israel with different interests from the US
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,006
    edited 8:26AM
    Foxy said:

    I have long been an admirer of Rayner who is a far cannier politician than generally given credit for (albeit one with rather chaotic household finances).

    She recognises that Mahmoods proposals are not going to get through the PLP, thereby setting up another humiliating U turn. Starmer seems unable to see the obvious.

    In addition she is in line with majority opinion in the country that 5-10 years should be the line for Permanent Redidence and citizenship.

    She is also right that the British sense of fairness supports applying tighter rules only to new applicants, not people who are already legally here.

    Whatever the merits of Mahmoods bill, Rayner gets the politics. It is why I had her as PM at year end in the PB predictions contest.

    she is utter bollox and will wreck what little is left after Starmer is booted out , assuming the morons are stupid enough to put her in his place. I doubt she could run a bath, being cunning and sly does not make for a good PM.

    Worst case only people who have worked for the 5 years they have been here etc should have any option.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,763
    FF43 said:

    I think it depends on whether Labour MPs believe Angela Rayner would make a better PM than Keir Starmer in a straight swap. No-one likes Starmer but he hangs on faute de mieux. If it's Starmer versus unspecified not-Starmer, he stays

    No more whether Labour members think that, Rayner only needs 81 Labour MPs nominating her not to win a majority of Labour MPs
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,892
    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT

    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Foxy said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2034453695027446085

    Contrary to reports from Axios, U.S. President Donald J. Trump states that the United States “knew nothing” about Wednesday’s attack by Israel against Iran’s South Pars Gas Field, adding that “Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LNG Gas facility.”

    President Trump states following today’s attack by Israel and retaliatory strikes by Iran, “NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”

    Trump still believes he's in control of events.
    When you go to war you're in control only of your own forces.
    Yes. It is not looking great for this intervention.

    I don't see what can now be achieved for it, other than an embarassing cessation of hostilities. Which is very sad for Iran's people.

    What you really want is for the army to go over to the Shah, turn on the IRGC, and then it's game over for the regime. But I feel the attacks have united the two.

    A more thoughtful US might have considered all the historical precedents there are for people rallying to their governments, even unpleasant or evil ones, once under attack from an enemy, and the lack of examples of where dropping bombs on people has led to fruitful political change.
    There have certainly been big pro-regime protests, but I'm not sure they're indicative of a rally - I would imagine the attendees already had a firm view.

    However, the regime remains very intact, and very in control of the streets.

    To negotiate from a strong position, Trump must stop the flow of Iranian oil and gas to Iran-sympathetic powers, and re-start the flow of Gulf oil to the West.

    I think I would probably just non-violently comandeer the tankers currently being sent to China, pay off the crews, and either keep them anchored somewhere or re-route them West. That way Iran is getting no oil out, and China won't pay for oil and gas it's not getting.
    So widening the war and involving other great powers in the conflict?

    Yep, that has never gone wrong before.
    I would not have got into the war in the first place. However, now that Trump is in it, the situation whereby Gulf oil exports are effectively stopped and Iranian ones may continue unhindered isn't really viable if there is to be a successful negotiated peace.
    Why could Trump not use his really really good best in the world military to stop Iran exporting any oil. They are supposedly very very great at pinpoint targetting and hav ethe best bombs and missiles etc etc , should be easy peasy given the war is already won a week ago.
    Even in big conflicts, it seems there's a lot of queasiness about interrupting energy flows. Neither America nor Russia did much very consistently to destroy ISIS's oil operation out of Syria.

    But in this case, Trump must turn this situation to his favour.

    He also needs to get Israel under control.
    To put it politely his hubris has absolutely F****d him big time and we will all pay the price.
    Though if my screwups left me sitting pretty while everyone else pays the price, I'd probably be pretty hubristic as well.

    And I'm lovely in a way that Trump isn't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,926
    edited 8:27AM
    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    This jars with me. And yes, I'm from Essex originally and son of an Essex girl, now deceased, but I think I'd find it just as icky if it was another group with whom I had no connection.
    That joke came from an Essex girl, Rayleigh part.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,905
    edited 8:27AM
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    There appears no rational reason for Israel to have attacked Iran's gas facilities. Other than to chuck gasoline on the fire. Throw all the pieces up in the air.

    12-D chess it isn't.
    There is a rational reason for Israel to attack Iran's gas facilities - trigger another escalation which is what it did.

    You don't need to look any further than how can we push Iran a bit further and stop any chance of a ceasefire.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,905
    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT

    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Foxy said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2034453695027446085

    Contrary to reports from Axios, U.S. President Donald J. Trump states that the United States “knew nothing” about Wednesday’s attack by Israel against Iran’s South Pars Gas Field, adding that “Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LNG Gas facility.”

    President Trump states following today’s attack by Israel and retaliatory strikes by Iran, “NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”

    Trump still believes he's in control of events.
    When you go to war you're in control only of your own forces.
    Yes. It is not looking great for this intervention.

    I don't see what can now be achieved for it, other than an embarassing cessation of hostilities. Which is very sad for Iran's people.

    What you really want is for the army to go over to the Shah, turn on the IRGC, and then it's game over for the regime. But I feel the attacks have united the two.

    A more thoughtful US might have considered all the historical precedents there are for people rallying to their governments, even unpleasant or evil ones, once under attack from an enemy, and the lack of examples of where dropping bombs on people has led to fruitful political change.
    There have certainly been big pro-regime protests, but I'm not sure they're indicative of a rally - I would imagine the attendees already had a firm view.

    However, the regime remains very intact, and very in control of the streets.

    To negotiate from a strong position, Trump must stop the flow of Iranian oil and gas to Iran-sympathetic powers, and re-start the flow of Gulf oil to the West.

    I think I would probably just non-violently comandeer the tankers currently being sent to China, pay off the crews, and either keep them anchored somewhere or re-route them West. That way Iran is getting no oil out, and China won't pay for oil and gas it's not getting.
    So widening the war and involving other great powers in the conflict?

    Yep, that has never gone wrong before.
    I would not have got into the war in the first place. However, now that Trump is in it, the situation whereby Gulf oil exports are effectively stopped and Iranian ones may continue unhindered isn't really viable if there is to be a successful negotiated peace.
    Why could Trump not use his really really good best in the world military to stop Iran exporting any oil. They are supposedly very very great at pinpoint targetting and hav ethe best bombs and missiles etc etc , should be easy peasy given the war is already won a week ago.
    Even in big conflicts, it seems there's a lot of queasiness about interrupting energy flows. Neither America nor Russia did much very consistently to destroy ISIS's oil operation out of Syria.

    But in this case, Trump must turn this situation to his favour.

    He also needs to get Israel under control.
    To put it politely his hubris has absolutely F****d him big time and we will all pay the price.
    Whiskey Pete held a press conference, maybe after Venezuela, where he talked about Fuck Around and Find Out.

    Well, him and his delusional boss are Finding Out now...
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,973
    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    Rayners intervention in favour of massively increasing the benefits bill by opposing Shabana Mahmood’s perfectly reasonable changes to ILR is nothing more than a naked attempt to cosy up to Union leaders, like those in Unison and Unite, who oppose the changes.

    It doesn’t matter what the cost to the taxpayer is. Rayner is nuts and the changes to ILR are popular.

    Labour has won the battle on immigration now she risks blowing it all up,again.

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/

    Some on the left have spotted the large parliamentary majority that Labour has and wants to use it. They have also worked out that Rainer would never be elected as PM ever so best to mount a putsch now before time runs out.
    That would suggest that Ms Rayner is the best that grouping on the left can offer. It also suggests that they aren't concerned about winning the next GE. So what would they be planning to do with the ~3 years left?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,905
    FF43 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    There appears no rational reason for Israel to have attacked Iran's gas facilities. Other than to chuck gasoline on the fire. Throw all the pieces up in the air.

    12-D chess it isn't.
    I posted on PB about a week into the war the observation from my Iranian heritage friends that belief that this war isn’t about removing the theocracy but stopping Iran being a functional state going forward.

    Stuff like this reinforces that.
    Trump's intervention where he blamed Israel for the attack on Pars gas field is curious. It implied the US has no control over the war and is operating as a client of Israel with different interests from the US
    https://bsky.app/profile/mortenmorland.bsky.social/post/3mhedjea7bs2j
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,992
    Foxy said:

    I have long been an admirer of Rayner who is a far cannier politician than generally given credit for (albeit one with rather chaotic household finances).

    She recognises that Mahmoods proposals are not going to get through the PLP, thereby setting up another humiliating U turn. Starmer seems unable to see the obvious.

    In addition she is in line with majority opinion in the country that 5-10 years should be the line for Permanent Redidence and citizenship.

    She is also right that the British sense of fairness supports applying tighter rules only to new applicants, not people who are already legally here.

    Whatever the merits of Mahmoods bill, Rayner gets the politics. It is why I had her as PM at year end in the PB predictions contest.

    AIUI there would still be opportunity to gain permanent residence and citizenship at current timescales but conditional on things like salary, working in public service or volunteering to speed the standard process up. That actually sounds fine to me despite being a liberal globalist.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 10,015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    This jars with me. And yes, I'm from Essex originally and son of an Essex girl, now deceased, but I think I'd find it just as icky if it was another group with whom I had no connection.
    That joke came from an Essex girl, Rayleigh part.
    Bloody Essex girls! :disappointed:
    (Though I'd argue Southend girls are something else again)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,678
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In light of recent events my bank's prediction for the war, our reasonable worst case scenario has been updated to reasonable best case scenario :neutral:

    Well, Trump is a moron.

    I'm somewhat heartened by Europe and Canada, Japan, Australia, and South Korea refusing to be drawn into this, though. There is a chance the fool will just announce victory and stop his aimless bombing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,926
    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    This jars with me. And yes, I'm from Essex originally and son of an Essex girl, now deceased, but I think I'd find it just as icky if it was another group with whom I had no connection.
    That joke came from an Essex girl, Rayleigh part.
    Bloody Essex girls! :disappointed:
    (Though I'd argue Southend girls are something else again)
    Southend female football fans achieved that rarity, they made me blush, some of their chants....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,304
    TBF, Trump's dad very likely was an anti-semite.

    Them: “It’s an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory to say there is a strong Israel lobby in America!”

    Trump last year: “My father would tell me, the most powerful lobby that there is in this country is the Jewish lobby. It's the Israeli lobby."
    https://x.com/LegendaryEnergy/status/2034035802406056053
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,992
    Taz said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    The Trump tax.
    Maybe we should introduce 25% tariffs on the USA - that might get his attention to this matter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,681
    edited 8:34AM
    A podcast I listened to this morning whilst on my early walk. Very interesting perspectives from members of the US military/political establishment before Trump lobotimised it.

    Glenn Diesen interviewing Lawrence Wilkerson (former Chief of Staff to the US Secretary of State):
    "U.S. Strategic Defeat in Iran Will Reshape the World"

    Broad ranging. One of the items discussed is who could use nuclear weapons first. TLDR: Netanyahu and no one has the leverage to stop him. 52 minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3Hy-qVJB6A
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,992
    Morris_Dancer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In light of recent events my bank's prediction for the war, our reasonable worst case scenario has been updated to reasonable best case scenario :neutral:

    Well, Trump is a moron.

    I'm somewhat heartened by Europe and Canada, Japan, Australia, and South Korea refusing to be drawn into this, though. There is a chance the fool will just announce victory and stop his aimless bombing.
    More likely find a new country to bomb. He really likes talking about how big and powerful the bombs are.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,722
    The latest posts from Trump are absolutely desperate.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,191
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I think it depends on whether Labour MPs believe Angela Rayner would make a better PM than Keir Starmer in a straight swap. No-one likes Starmer but he hangs on faute de mieux. If it's Starmer versus unspecified not-Starmer, he stays

    No more whether Labour members think that, Rayner only needs 81 Labour MPs nominating her not to win a majority of Labour MPs
    I'm not sure how that dynamic works. Rayner would want to be identified as preferred candidate before it goes to member vote. The member vote would effectively be an endorsement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,763
    edited 8:36AM
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    Rayners intervention in favour of massively increasing the benefits bill by opposing Shabana Mahmood’s perfectly reasonable changes to ILR is nothing more than a naked attempt to cosy up to Union leaders, like those in Unison and Unite, who oppose the changes.

    It doesn’t matter what the cost to the taxpayer is. Rayner is nuts and the changes to ILR are popular.

    Labour has won the battle on immigration now she risks blowing it all up,again.

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/

    Some on the left have spotted the large parliamentary majority that Labour has and wants to use it. They have also worked out that Rainer would never be elected as PM ever so best to mount a putsch now before time runs out.
    That would suggest that Ms Rayner is the best that grouping on the left can offer. It also suggests that they aren't concerned about winning the next GE. So what would they be planning to do with the ~3 years left?
    I have heard from a Labour MP who normally isn't a Rayner fan (more team Starmer) and their view is Starmer's big problem is that he's ceding the battleground to Farage which isn't a good strategy, Rayner wouldn't do that, plus a Rayner led Labour would attract tactical votes from the Lib Dems and Greens in a way Starmer wouldn't.
    Not from the LDs it wouldn’t, some of them would now prefer the Tories to Rayner led Labour though they would virtually all tactically vote for Starmer led Labour over Reform
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,086
    algarkirk said:

    The timing seems odd. We are in a period when the PM needs to be ready to be a wartime leader, handling a deranged Trump, a deranged middle east, a defence capability crisis and a price crisis at the point where the government has roughly minus about £3 trillion in the old sock under the bed.

    Rayner may be the best person for this, but I have my doubts. Am I alone in thinking this.....?

    I wonder if the odd timing has been seen as an advantage. Put the speech out there whilst everything else is going on, the pushback against it is muted as a result, and it is thus allowed to sit there relatively undisturbed as a ticking time bomb set to go off in May in a way it wouldn't otherwise have been permitted to do.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,124
    Nigelb said:

    TBF, Trump's dad very likely was an anti-semite.

    Them: “It’s an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory to say there is a strong Israel lobby in America!”

    Trump last year: “My father would tell me, the most powerful lobby that there is in this country is the Jewish lobby. It's the Israeli lobby."
    https://x.com/LegendaryEnergy/status/2034035802406056053

    Trump admires power and strength, so…
    Kind of echoes the journey of the right in general and in the USA in particular from pervasive antisemitism to seeing Israel and its lobbyists as allies.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,905
    noneoftheabove said:

    Foxy said:

    I have long been an admirer of Rayner who is a far cannier politician than generally given credit for (albeit one with rather chaotic household finances).

    She recognises that Mahmoods proposals are not going to get through the PLP, thereby setting up another humiliating U turn. Starmer seems unable to see the obvious.

    In addition she is in line with majority opinion in the country that 5-10 years should be the line for Permanent Redidence and citizenship.

    She is also right that the British sense of fairness supports applying tighter rules only to new applicants, not people who are already legally here.

    Whatever the merits of Mahmoods bill, Rayner gets the politics. It is why I had her as PM at year end in the PB predictions contest.

    AIUI there would still be opportunity to gain permanent residence and citizenship at current timescales but conditional on things like salary, working in public service or volunteering to speed the standard process up. That actually sounds fine to me despite being a liberal globalist.
    +1 - that has to be the rules, you can come here but you need to demonstrate that you pay your way before you get citizenship. Which as you say there should be £x00,000 paid in tax, NHS work or volunteering alongside the x year criteria.

    And if you don't meet that criteria we should offer a discretionary renewal during which time they need to hit those criteria,

    By doing that we would end up with people who actually contribute to the country..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,763
    With SKS as PM we are heading for a hung parliament even if Reform still win most seats. With Rayner as Labour leader I think a Reform majority is more likely though Rayner might hold some seats projected to now go Green
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,992
    eek said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Foxy said:

    I have long been an admirer of Rayner who is a far cannier politician than generally given credit for (albeit one with rather chaotic household finances).

    She recognises that Mahmoods proposals are not going to get through the PLP, thereby setting up another humiliating U turn. Starmer seems unable to see the obvious.

    In addition she is in line with majority opinion in the country that 5-10 years should be the line for Permanent Redidence and citizenship.

    She is also right that the British sense of fairness supports applying tighter rules only to new applicants, not people who are already legally here.

    Whatever the merits of Mahmoods bill, Rayner gets the politics. It is why I had her as PM at year end in the PB predictions contest.

    AIUI there would still be opportunity to gain permanent residence and citizenship at current timescales but conditional on things like salary, working in public service or volunteering to speed the standard process up. That actually sounds fine to me despite being a liberal globalist.
    +1 - that has to be the rules, you can come here but you need to demonstrate that you pay your way before you get citizenship. Which as you say there should be £x00,000 paid in tax, NHS work or volunteering alongside the x year criteria.

    And if you don't meet that criteria we should offer a discretionary renewal during which time they need to hit those criteria,

    By doing that we would end up with people who actually contribute to the country..
    As in a lot of things I think we should be looking to Norway on how we manage immigration and integration, and they do a lot more on the integration side. Ultimately I think that benefits immigrants, locals and government.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,191
    edited 8:40AM
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    There appears no rational reason for Israel to have attacked Iran's gas facilities. Other than to chuck gasoline on the fire. Throw all the pieces up in the air.

    12-D chess it isn't.
    Israel wants all its neighbours rendered into a state of dysfunction. Especially, but not only, Iran. If an attack on Iran triggers retaliation on the Gulf States, it's a bonus.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 10,015
    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    This jars with me. And yes, I'm from Essex originally and son of an Essex girl, now deceased, but I think I'd find it just as icky if it was another group with whom I had no connection.
    That joke came from an Essex girl, Rayleigh part.
    Bloody Essex girls! :disappointed:
    (Though I'd argue Southend girls are something else again)
    I dunno, I think it just feeds in to the Essex girls are slaaaags/Essex boys are playerzzzz thing. Had it been Essex boys or young Brits in the original I'd have been fine with it.

    Anyway, whatever, right? I defend your right to offend me :wink:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,304
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    This jars with me. And yes, I'm from Essex originally and son of an Essex girl, now deceased, but I think I'd find it just as icky if it was another group with whom I had no connection.
    That joke came from an Essex girl, Rayleigh part.
    So you're going with the 'some of my best friends are Essex girls' defence ?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 10,015
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    This jars with me. And yes, I'm from Essex originally and son of an Essex girl, now deceased, but I think I'd find it just as icky if it was another group with whom I had no connection.
    That joke came from an Essex girl, Rayleigh part.
    So you're going with the 'some of my best friends are Essex girls' defence ?
    Has benefits...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,992
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    Rayners intervention in favour of massively increasing the benefits bill by opposing Shabana Mahmood’s perfectly reasonable changes to ILR is nothing more than a naked attempt to cosy up to Union leaders, like those in Unison and Unite, who oppose the changes.

    It doesn’t matter what the cost to the taxpayer is. Rayner is nuts and the changes to ILR are popular.

    Labour has won the battle on immigration now she risks blowing it all up,again.

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/

    Some on the left have spotted the large parliamentary majority that Labour has and wants to use it. They have also worked out that Rainer would never be elected as PM ever so best to mount a putsch now before time runs out.
    That would suggest that Ms Rayner is the best that grouping on the left can offer. It also suggests that they aren't concerned about winning the next GE. So what would they be planning to do with the ~3 years left?
    I have heard from a Labour MP who normally isn't a Rayner fan (more team Starmer) and their view is Starmer's big problem is that he's ceding the battleground to Farage which isn't a good strategy, Rayner wouldn't do that, plus a Rayner led Labour would attract tactical votes from the Lib Dems and Greens in a way Starmer wouldn't.
    Another question Labour MPs should be asking themselves is who do they want to shape immigration policy for the next couple of decades?

    Mahmood or Reform? If Labour don't make changes, someone else will, and they will like those changes even less.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,678
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Who could have predicted that the nerdiest tech bro of them all doesn’t have a clue about what people want.

    JUST IN: Meta announces they'll be shutting down the Metaverse, after pouring $80,000,000,000.00 into the project.

    https://x.com/polymarket/status/2034342763693482257?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    That's fantastic news.

    The idea of metaverses are horrendous. Imagine online gatekeeping means constant low level fees for every damn thing, with crypto galore.

    Now we just need Meta's desire to get ID checks over all social media so they have more info to mine and sell thrown in the bin.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,905
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nigelb said:

    TBF, Trump's dad very likely was an anti-semite.

    Them: “It’s an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory to say there is a strong Israel lobby in America!”

    Trump last year: “My father would tell me, the most powerful lobby that there is in this country is the Jewish lobby. It's the Israeli lobby."
    https://x.com/LegendaryEnergy/status/2034035802406056053

    Trump admires power and strength
    Is that really true?

    Is Putin really stronger and more powerful than Zelensky?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,940
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    I had a joke for you about the British Constitution, but I didn't write it down.
    Was it Dicey?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,905
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Iranian strikes have hit Kuwait’s main oil refineries at Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah. The Kuwaitis are currently battling fires.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,763
    noneoftheabove said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    Rayners intervention in favour of massively increasing the benefits bill by opposing Shabana Mahmood’s perfectly reasonable changes to ILR is nothing more than a naked attempt to cosy up to Union leaders, like those in Unison and Unite, who oppose the changes.

    It doesn’t matter what the cost to the taxpayer is. Rayner is nuts and the changes to ILR are popular.

    Labour has won the battle on immigration now she risks blowing it all up,again.

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/

    Some on the left have spotted the large parliamentary majority that Labour has and wants to use it. They have also worked out that Rainer would never be elected as PM ever so best to mount a putsch now before time runs out.
    That would suggest that Ms Rayner is the best that grouping on the left can offer. It also suggests that they aren't concerned about winning the next GE. So what would they be planning to do with the ~3 years left?
    I have heard from a Labour MP who normally isn't a Rayner fan (more team Starmer) and their view is Starmer's big problem is that he's ceding the battleground to Farage which isn't a good strategy, Rayner wouldn't do that, plus a Rayner led Labour would attract tactical votes from the Lib Dems and Greens in a way Starmer wouldn't.
    Another question Labour MPs should be asking themselves is who do they want to shape immigration policy for the next couple of decades?

    Mahmood or Reform? If Labour don't make changes, someone else will, and they will like those changes even less.
    Labour won’t out Reform Reform on immigration and will leak more voters to the Greens and LDs if they try. Zero chance of Labour members electing Mahmood leader too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,763
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I think it depends on whether Labour MPs believe Angela Rayner would make a better PM than Keir Starmer in a straight swap. No-one likes Starmer but he hangs on faute de mieux. If it's Starmer versus unspecified not-Starmer, he stays

    No more whether Labour members think that, Rayner only needs 81 Labour MPs nominating her not to win a majority of Labour MPs
    I'm not sure how that dynamic works. Rayner would want to be identified as preferred candidate before it goes to member vote. The member vote would effectively be an endorsement.
    She might but she doesn’t have to. Corbyn lost the Labour MPs vote and Truss and IDS lost the Tory MPs vote but they all won most party members votes
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,492
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Who could have predicted that the nerdiest tech bro of them all doesn’t have a clue about what people want.

    JUST IN: Meta announces they'll be shutting down the Metaverse, after pouring $80,000,000,000.00 into the project.

    https://x.com/polymarket/status/2034342763693482257?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Metaverse rose from the ashes of Facebook's failed glasses project. AR and VR are the graveyards of big tech. Even Apple couldn't make people care.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,905
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Who could have predicted that the nerdiest tech bro of them all doesn’t have a clue about what people want.

    JUST IN: Meta announces they'll be shutting down the Metaverse, after pouring $80,000,000,000.00 into the project.

    https://x.com/polymarket/status/2034342763693482257?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    That's fantastic news.

    The idea of metaverses are horrendous. Imagine online gatekeeping means constant low level fees for every damn thing, with crypto galore.

    Now we just need Meta's desire to get ID checks over all social media so they have more info to mine and sell thrown in the bin.
    Every time I see Zuckerberg in the news I think of the opening scene of the movie

    ERICA: (close) You are probably going to be a very successful computer person.

    But you’re going to go through life thinking that girls don’t like you because you’re a nerd. And I want you to know, from the bottom of my heart, that that won’t be true. It’ll be because you’re an asshole.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,124
    edited 8:51AM
    Scott_xP said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nigelb said:

    TBF, Trump's dad very likely was an anti-semite.

    Them: “It’s an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory to say there is a strong Israel lobby in America!”

    Trump last year: “My father would tell me, the most powerful lobby that there is in this country is the Jewish lobby. It's the Israeli lobby."
    https://x.com/LegendaryEnergy/status/2034035802406056053

    Trump admires power and strength
    Is that really true?

    Is Putin really stronger and more powerful than Zelensky?
    Well, it’s unlikely Putin is ever going to be voted out.

    I’d qualify it as Trump admiring the image of power and strength.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,905
    carnforth said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Who could have predicted that the nerdiest tech bro of them all doesn’t have a clue about what people want.

    JUST IN: Meta announces they'll be shutting down the Metaverse, after pouring $80,000,000,000.00 into the project.

    https://x.com/polymarket/status/2034342763693482257?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Metaverse rose from the ashes of Facebook's failed glasses project. AR and VR are the graveyards of big tech. Even Apple couldn't make people care.
    But they have a new glasses project, which has already run into a number of 'problems'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,940
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly Rayner will challenge Starmer from the left if Labour are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May on a platform of reclaiming votes lost to the Greens (though at the risk of leaking centrist swing voters to the Tories and LDs).She would need to get 81 Labour MPs to nominate her which is not a certainty though as the article suggests but if she gets them membership polls show she would beat Starmer in a Labour members poll.

    In 1990 of course Tory rules meant while Heseltine prevented Thatcher winning outright in the first round, Major was able to join a second round to beat Heseltine who would likely have beaten Maggie in round two with Tory MPs. Labour leadership rules though mean that all nominated candidates by Labour MPs go to the members, there is no further round with Labour MPs or later joiners to the contest

    This is a very good point. It is a mistake to learn lessons from an election contest in a different party with very different rules. It’s really hard to replace a Labour leader at any time, especially in government, but if you want to do so you have to go full throttle and head on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,905
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nigelb said:

    TBF, Trump's dad very likely was an anti-semite.

    Them: “It’s an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory to say there is a strong Israel lobby in America!”

    Trump last year: “My father would tell me, the most powerful lobby that there is in this country is the Jewish lobby. It's the Israeli lobby."
    https://x.com/LegendaryEnergy/status/2034035802406056053

    Trump admires power and strength
    Is that really true?

    Is Putin really stronger and more powerful than Zelensky?
    Well, it’s unlikely Putin is ever going to be voted out.

    I’d qualify it as Trump admiring the image of power and strength.
    This is true. He likes the images of military parades, which is why his fiasco was so delicious. There is a lot of potential for the rest of his World spectacles this year to be increasingly disastrous
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,309
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    I had a joke for you about the British Constitution, but I didn't write it down.
    Was it Dicey?
    A more accurate punchline would be "I wrote it down with one letter per page, threw all the pages up in the air and spent 400 odd years trying to reassemble the joke". I acknowledge that's less funny though.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,834
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UK gas prices surge by a quarter

    UK natural gas prices have risen 25 per cent to 174.49p a therm this morning following fresh strikes against energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

    Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm said.

    The attacks came after Iran’s South Pars field, the largest in the world, was targeted by Israel on Wednesday.

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/iran-us-war-live-latest-news-trump-oil-today-krj3ls7zm

    There appears no rational reason for Israel to have attacked Iran's gas facilities. Other than to chuck gasoline on the fire. Throw all the pieces up in the air.

    12-D chess it isn't.
    I posted on PB about a week into the war the observation from my Iranian heritage friends that belief that this war isn’t about removing the theocracy but stopping Iran being a functional state going forward.

    Stuff like this reinforces that.
    Destruction of their largest natural gas facility would utterly cripple Iran's domestic economy.
    If you wanted a failed state, it's a very effective way of bringing that about.
    I've never believed that Israel wanted real regime change in Iran. At best a democratic Iran would likely become the dominant power in the region, it's a big country, with a big population, and lots of resources. It would take Israel down a notch. At worst Iran might be another Turkey, sort of democratic, but not quite, very keen on having the largest military in the region. A failed state would suit Israel a lot more than any Iran that is free of sanctions, growing, and likely still antagonistic towards Israel.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,992
    HYUFD said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    Rayners intervention in favour of massively increasing the benefits bill by opposing Shabana Mahmood’s perfectly reasonable changes to ILR is nothing more than a naked attempt to cosy up to Union leaders, like those in Unison and Unite, who oppose the changes.

    It doesn’t matter what the cost to the taxpayer is. Rayner is nuts and the changes to ILR are popular.

    Labour has won the battle on immigration now she risks blowing it all up,again.

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/

    Some on the left have spotted the large parliamentary majority that Labour has and wants to use it. They have also worked out that Rainer would never be elected as PM ever so best to mount a putsch now before time runs out.
    That would suggest that Ms Rayner is the best that grouping on the left can offer. It also suggests that they aren't concerned about winning the next GE. So what would they be planning to do with the ~3 years left?
    I have heard from a Labour MP who normally isn't a Rayner fan (more team Starmer) and their view is Starmer's big problem is that he's ceding the battleground to Farage which isn't a good strategy, Rayner wouldn't do that, plus a Rayner led Labour would attract tactical votes from the Lib Dems and Greens in a way Starmer wouldn't.
    Another question Labour MPs should be asking themselves is who do they want to shape immigration policy for the next couple of decades?

    Mahmood or Reform? If Labour don't make changes, someone else will, and they will like those changes even less.
    Labour won’t out Reform Reform on immigration and will leak more voters to the Greens and LDs if they try. Zero chance of Labour members electing Mahmood leader too
    They shouldn't try and out Reform Reform, but no-one is suggesting they do so. Acknowledging and tackling a real problem is very different to how the likes of Jenrick et al managed immigration, a load of performative and divisive claptrap to get favourable headlines on the Daily Mail and GBeebies at the expense of society.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,940
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky interview with Sharon Graham of Unite Union asks should the government look again at drilling in the North Sea ?

    'Yes - I absolutely do and I think they need to open up the North Sea

    We shouldn't let go of one rope before we have got hold of another'

    It is economic vandalism not to take the billions of additional tax revenue from the North Sea over the next 2 decades whilst tansitioning

    It is not either or but do both, and if any lesson is to be learnt from this crisis it is to develop our own oil and gas fields as are Norway

    In a spectacularly crowded field probably the stupidest and most self harming policy in the last decade.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,041
    noneoftheabove said:

    Foxy said:

    I have long been an admirer of Rayner who is a far cannier politician than generally given credit for (albeit one with rather chaotic household finances).

    She recognises that Mahmoods proposals are not going to get through the PLP, thereby setting up another humiliating U turn. Starmer seems unable to see the obvious.

    In addition she is in line with majority opinion in the country that 5-10 years should be the line for Permanent Redidence and citizenship.

    She is also right that the British sense of fairness supports applying tighter rules only to new applicants, not people who are already legally here.

    Whatever the merits of Mahmoods bill, Rayner gets the politics. It is why I had her as PM at year end in the PB predictions contest.

    AIUI there would still be opportunity to gain permanent residence and citizenship at current timescales but conditional on things like salary, working in public service or volunteering to speed the standard process up. That actually sounds fine to me despite being a liberal globalist.
    It's not volunteering if you have to do it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,940
    Stereodog said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What do Newcastle United and Essex girls have in commom?

    Both go to Spain to get fucked.

    I had a joke for you about the British Constitution, but I didn't write it down.
    Was it Dicey?
    A more accurate punchline would be "I wrote it down with one letter per page, threw all the pages up in the air and spent 400 odd years trying to reassemble the joke". I acknowledge that's less funny though.
    Comments about day jobs come to mind to be honest. Talking of which…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,304
    Really ?

    Iran offered to give away ALL of its enriched uranium during peace talks in Geneva. The British thought it was a credible offer. Hours later, Trump started bombing Iran anyway.
    https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/2034396587019895078
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,763
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I think it depends on whether Labour MPs believe Angela Rayner would make a better PM than Keir Starmer in a straight swap. No-one likes Starmer but he hangs on faute de mieux. If it's Starmer versus unspecified not-Starmer, he stays

    No more whether Labour members think that, Rayner only needs 81 Labour MPs nominating her not to win a majority of Labour MPs
    I'm not sure how that dynamic works. Rayner would want to be identified as preferred candidate before it goes to member vote. The member vote would effectively be an endorsement.
    She might but she doesn’t have to. Corbyn lost the Labour MPs vote and Truss and IDS lost the Tory MPs vote but they all won most party members votes
    Ed Miliband lost the Labour MPs and members votes but won with the votes of the unions
Sign In or Register to comment.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2026