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There’s no doubt that the overnight news on Labour’s Axelrod appointment will cheer the party faithful but I just wonder what Axelrod will be able to bring.
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Wasn't one of Obama's strengths that he had loads and loads of small-scale local sub-organisers chasing up friends, neighbours, family etc including on the internet. If this Axelrod chappie can organise that …..
Nice to know that COOP money is being put to good use.....
British political leaders, like British football chairmen, seem to have rejected homegrown talent, and when it comes to winning elections they now look abroad for strategic brains capable of persuading the British electorate.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/17/david-axelrod-overseas-political-strategists-analysis
http://news.sky.com/story/1244803/axelrod-role-is-seriously-bad-news-for-tories
Nothing quite like the smell of hubris in the morning.....
Meanwhile the Mail links Axelrod's hiring to Miliband's poor personal ratings:
While Labour has maintained a lead in the polls, Mr Miliband’s personal ratings have remained poor.
A YouGov survey two weeks ago showed 41 per cent of people think the Labour leader is ‘weird’ or ‘very weird’.
The survey for BuzzFeed, which looked at the public’s perception of the leaders’ personalities, also found 36 per cent of the population believe Mr Miliband would have been bullied at school.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2607538/Ed-Miliband-calls-Barack-Obamas-election-guru-David-Axelrod-lead-campaign-2015.html#ixzz2zD0J5Jgw
Many in Labour were disgruntled when the Tories recruited Barack Obama's former adviser Jim Messina as a campaign consultant last summer - but Ed Miliband has just unambiguously trumped that appointment. In a political coup, the party has secured the services of the US president's former strategist David Axelrod, the man who masterminded his two election victories, as a senior strategic adviser.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/labour-hires-david-axelrod-senior-strategic-adviser
What about our other E-W-S's? After all, British football managers have found success "abroad". E.g. Roy Hodgson.
"So after (Republicans) drove the car into the ditch, made it as difficult as possible for us to pull it back, now they want the keys back," Obama said. "You can't drive! We don't want to have to go back into the ditch! We just got the car out!"
http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2011868494_apuspoliticalinsider.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2607005/I-thought-house-falling-Minor-earthquake-hits-Midlands-shaking-homes-knocking-objects-shelves.html
2010 LD split: LAB 27, LD 41
DKs reduced and seem to have returned to LD
2010 Cons: UKIP 18
LAB low in Scotland
Regional splits for HYFUD
London: 34/41/9/12
Rest of South: 40/28/13/17
Midlands/Wales: 34/35/10/10. PC 2
North: 28/42/8/10
Scotland: 19/29/16/2 SNP:30
Oh, hang on...
As an aside, any Tory who panics at this news is a fool. I'm sure Axelrod is fine, but what you need is the message and the leader. Labour should fix those first rather than relying on political tactics to grind out a Arsenal style victory.
Will see how it works. Would be funny if they tried an Obama makeover on Ed. I can see the posters now and wonder who will put one of Ed's speeches to music. Can't see the Daily Mail serialising Ed's version of "Dreams from my father".
Perhaps someone can explain to me why he doesn't need a visa, or if he does, why it's in the national interest to give him one. Another opportunity for Sean Thomas to save Britain, methinks...
How did Arni work out for Labour?
379 - Clinton (1996)
370 - Clinton (1992)
365 - Obama (2008)
332 - Obama (2012)
297 - Carter (1976).
"Arnie Graf: The man Ed Miliband asked to rebuild Labour"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/nov/21/arnie-graf-labour-party-miliband
"Douglas Alexander: Labour hasn’t fired Arnie Graf as election guru"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/douglas-alexander-labour-hasnt-fired-arnie-graf-as-election-guru/
"Has Labour ditched Arnie Graf, the Obama guru who was supposed to win them the election?"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100265477/has-labour-ditched-arnie-graf-the-obama-guru-who-was-supposed-to-win-them-the-election/
He was the last highly-priced Obama adviser that Labour got in, only for him to vanish without trace. Does anyone really believe that this new guy will be able to negotiate Labour's factions any better than Arnie?
Ed Who?
Monte ended up 4th beaten in the 3rd spot by a party lead by a real life comedian.
Labour aiming high again.
David Axelrod's appointment has been described by the Labour party as "seriously bad news for the Conservatives"
George Eaton, New Statesman:
Many in Labour were disgruntled when the Tories recruited Barack Obama's former adviser Jim Messina as a campaign consultant last summer - but Ed Miliband has just unambiguously trumped that appointment. In a political coup, the party has secured the services of the US president's former strategist David Axelrod, the man who masterminded his two election victories, as a senior strategic adviser.
Clutching at straws?
I don't think Billy Bragg will cut it somehow.
We can't tell if these imports make any difference, because it's not really been tried yet. Personally, I'd say that the differences between US presidential politics and UK party politics are so large that any lessons are nebulous at best. But they are intelligent guys, and perhaps they can alter their techniques and advice to fit our system.
But at least Messina's still apparently in place. They certainly won't have any effect if, like Arnie, they fall victim to tribal Labour infighting.
I think most of them vaguely know the name and reputation, but have no idea of whether he will be good or not. And are saying as much.
7.2% margin - Obama (2008)
5.5% margin - Clinton (1992)
3.9% margin - Obama (2012)
2.1% margin - Carter (1976)
It's not how many votes you receive, it what the difference is between the competing parties, and where they're cast that counts. Obama won lots more votes than Roosevelt in 1936 or Johnson in 1964; so what? He's had more cast against him than any candidate in history too.
There's a mythology building up about how Obama swept all before him; he didn't. Both wins were just short of the median in post-war elections in ECV terms, which is the only one that matters.
Off topic, for those following my analyses of the betting markets my latest blogpost will have to wait till this afternoon, because the only internet access I have till then is a mobile (for some reason my Budapest internet is down), and I need to be able to manipulate tables. Apologies for the delay.
It seems you are worried . Noone has passed any comment about how good or bad he will be. UK elections are very different animals to those in the States.
If they are based here, the good ones quickly pick up the nuances and bring fresh ideas to the party.
Those who fly in for a couple of days to dispense their wisdom are frequently counter productive and can face strong internal resistance.
Axelrod will not be based here, but will be flying in for a couple of days at a time.
They also inject a little of the Obama 'magic' and credibility into the campaigns. Not that that, in itself, would gather any extra votes.
Finally there is an important point: the world is changing. The last couple of US presidential elections have seen a much more effective use of technology than is currently used in Britain. They might be able to advise on the best use of social media and, most importantly, have good contacts in those areas.
So they *may* be able to make a marked difference on the last point. But it relies on the advisers' advice being welcomed and used effectively.
This is what he has to work with.
http://bit.ly/1eGpa16
Well weird.
Just listening to the end of P2. Sounds like tyre degradation could be a factor, but the Ferrari seems to be perhaps a little faster.
Something else to consider, on-topic, is that an optimistic "Yes we can" style campaign will have a hard time against public apathy and general contempt for the political class. Plus, Miliband is not a British Obama, even if he thinks he's going to be the first Jewish Prime Minister.
"CRASH!
Pastor Maldonado has put his Lotus into the wall on his way down the road heading into the pitlane. Unbelievable. "I crashed," he says over team radio. "Oh, OK" is the response, before he gets out and makes the short walk to the Lotus garage."
I wonder if the £40m or so Maldonado took to Lotus will be enough to cover the damage he causes.
* The cheque is in the post
* Of course I'll still respect you in the morning
* I'm from head office and I'm here to help.....
As to the DUP, I presume Cameron has let it be known that he'd be happy to return to FPTP for the Ulster Assembly elections.
I see the SNP returning to their roots as tartan tories and signing up to a five year coalition with the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
The reward for the Lib Dems will be get all the pinkoes offloaded from newly merged SCon and SNP party.
There. Sorted.
Even Stuart Dickson and malcolmg would not be minded to object. Pork though may find himself in a dilemma.
Sample posts:
"Let's be honest. The new curriculum is a joke. We're just bored of making you succeed in life so we now like to get pleasure outof you failing."
"We are now allowing alcohol and controlled substances into our exams."
and
"UPDATE Everyone here at the SQA hopes you are more stressed than you have ever been and you feel like your failing Exams in 25 days!!"
Just as well these 16 year olds have not got a vote eh?
But that assumes that voters make judgement on a rational basis.
If the rapid, en masse, and seemingly firm (to date) "anti-Tory" switch by LD10 voters then you can only draw 3 conclusions:
(1) Anti-Tory tribal voting (I would argue "non rational" in the sense that it is emotional rather than fact bases) occurs - and therefore Labour's lack of alternative narrative doesn't matter
(2) Ed is either regarded positively by him, or his "patent weakness" isn't important
(3) Economics is not a primary motivating factor for their vote
It's probably a combination of these - but in any event there's no basis for the claim that the Tories "should" win. It's not enough to do a good job - you need to convince truculent voters to support you as well.
Last thread: thanks to the late-night commentators who advised on the German "medical envelopes" after I went to bed. I've put down compresses with a query and noted William Glenn's suggestion for the proof-reader to consider. (A new poster I think - welcome!)
I'm trying not to be overly sceptical: PM ratings should be a good guide but presumably only when taken in the context of other leader ratings, the relative figures being key. Does that still work with the Lib Dems in govt and the rise of UKIP? The numbers sound right *if* there's a major swing back from UKIP to Con (which presumably the model suggests there will be). It's a realistic scenario but only one. Personally, I think it's a bit kind to the Blue team.
I was going to suggest the correct translation might be "colostomy bag".
Otherwise this link might yield some visual clues: http://german.alibaba.com/goods/medical-envelopes.html
You can use words like "sabre-rattling" to stir up emotion all you want, but all I have ever argued is that we should have a clear penalties for the most basic breach of international law - invading and annexing land from your neighbours. It amazes me how you can think it is reasonable to invade Iraq based on far more ambiguous legal grounds, but think even a tough economic response to a worse breach is something to be sanguine over.
I have made a diary note to suggest this again once you have returned from your holiday on 26th September.
You may find the idea more appealing after returning home refreshed and reinvigorated.
Either way if this can be implemented on the ground a lot of lives will have been saved. I was impressed by John Kerry once again. The swiftboat campaign was an utter disgrace, especially by a draft dodger, and I hope these Americans don't introduce anything like that into our politics.
Oh, and, for the record, it's very hard to believe Putin would have been so bold had he not seen the West buckle on Syrian intervention. So well done, the posturing of your leader for domestic political gain has seen the emasculation of a sovereign country that wanted to be a Western pro-European democracy.
Civil Rights was also only a third of the way into the post-war era; the majority of elections have been since then. Now, admittedly, Obama did do well as a Democrat in that context but still not as well as Clinton (and Perot's interventions weren't particularly critical there).
I go back to my original point: in 2008, the landscape was very favourable to the Democrats given Bush and the economy. McCain was no charismatic rival. Yet Obama only did OK. OK was good enough but I just don't think that his campaign should be lauded as an exceptional example when the figures - to me - don't back that up.
Secondly, that sort of thing wasn't mentioned when he was hired. The following article does rather suggest a bigger role:
"Arnie Graf will conduct a “year zero” review of Labour’s organisation and campaign structures."
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/01/graf-obama-labour-miliband
Which seems rather different from your spin. His role may have changed since then, but the mood music at the time was certainly not as narrowly focussed as you suggest above.
Yet this LabourList article from less than two weeks ago seems to suggest that Graf'll be coming back. It'll be interesting to see if that's still true, and if it is, how well the two gurus will work together, and within Labour's tribal backstabbing.
http://labourlist.org/2014/04/arnie-graf-coming-back-programme-of-work-ready-for-his-return/
The final prediction is based on PM approval polls 2-3 months before the election date. So they have not analysed the month on month predictions from the model.
I have done that. I see no reason not to.
Lol.
The Russian leaning oblasts (including the South) will trundle on looking East under the patronage of Russia.
The West will become an EU subsidy junky.
A race will then ensue, for the benefit of all Ukrainians, as to which side will prevail in an economic war. Russia will make the early running but eventually the free market, rule of law and democratic processes of the West will prevail.
In twenty years we can look forward to the re-unification of The Ukraine as the walls come tumbling down. But that will only happen when Moscow is converted to the cause not Kiev.
And in the interim there will be a deal not to advance NATO beyond its current borders. The minimal sanctions imposed on Russia to date will be abandoned in a fanfare of mutual self-congratulation once the deal is struck.
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/multimedia/interactives/2013/stats_images/Ch8House.png
This is the first ever Congress where the most left wing Republican is to the right of the most right wing Democrat. If we ever get big changes to the presidential electoral map again, it won't be because of an inspiring candidate. It will be because one party puts up a complete radical.