It appears the US crime family didn't bet on the oil price before shutting down the World's largest oilfields. They really didn't expect this to happen...
$150 by End of Week is quickly accelerating into the “optimistic outcomes” bucket which, let me just say, “lol. lmfao.”
I understand that economic sage and famous oil trader Barron Trump bought $30m of oil futures two days before that attack on Iran - fortune favours the brave.
Then I apologise to the general trump family for even thinking they might attempt to make money from privileged info. I wish them well with their efforts for free in the benefit of the working man of America.
(Fair fucks to you, despite being of the left for calling that out btw).
I’m not of the left. I am a centrist Dad… well, I would be if I had kids. I can actually only claim to be a centrist Uncle.
He was invited to a premiere of his friend Huey “Piano” Smith’s new album performance. Backstage he is said to have told Huey “That was great, but you should have played that bit like this” and played it better. Then he played one of Huey’s new songs backwards to him
This is my favourite recording of him; just James, a piano and a small crowd, live at the Maple Leaf in NOLA
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
543% increase in the Baltic LNG index this week - the largest % increase in history - on a rush to secure US, Russian, and LNG cargoes after the complete loss of Qatari volumes
It appears the US crime family didn't bet on the oil price before shutting down the World's largest oilfields. They really didn't expect this to happen...
$150 by End of Week is quickly accelerating into the “optimistic outcomes” bucket which, let me just say, “lol. lmfao.”
I understand that economic sage and famous oil trader Barron Trump bought $30m of oil futures two days before that attack on Iran - fortune favours the brave.
Then I apologise to the general trump family for even thinking they might attempt to make money from privileged info. I wish them well with their efforts for free in the benefit of the working man of America.
(Fair fucks to you, despite being of the left for calling that out btw).
I’m not of the left. I am a centrist Dad… well, I would be if I had kids. I can actually only claim to be a centrist Uncle.
You are left of me so I will stick with that! But for anti-trumps (I am one) it’s good to see we (well you and Dixie dean) can call out fake news even if it’s lovely stuff.
Trump goes on TV and says "the war is over, the Straits are open", then Iran sink some tankers
It is in Iran’s interests for the war to end. It is in Trump’s interests for the war to end. The Gulf states would all agree too. That seems like fertile ground for some sort of deal to be made. If Trump TACOs, he won’t be demanding much. The question is whether the US can pressure Israel to agree to a ceasefire.
I can imagine a conversation along the lines of, "You can have 36 hours to kill the new Supreme Leader and then we're stopping until after the midterms."
Trump goes on TV and says "the war is over, the Straits are open", then Iran sink some tankers
It is in Iran’s interests for the war to end. It is in Trump’s interests for the war to end. The Gulf states would all agree too. That seems like fertile ground for some sort of deal to be made. If Trump TACOs, he won’t be demanding much. The question is whether the US can pressure Israel to agree to a ceasefire.
A radical thought, they could just turn off the armaments waterfall that’s kept Bibi’s warmongering in tip top condition.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
It’s going to be fun when inflation rears its head viciously again how Labour excuse it after their attacks on the Tories who had to deal with Covid and Ukraine,
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
This is why crystal clear aims are vital before you start anything.
Brent crude oil price tops $100 a barrel in Asian markets as the conflict in the Middle East enters another week.
Trump really doesn't want to win those midterms
With the oil price surging, and not shutting down talk about a draft, I can only conclude he's given this war the careful attention and diligent planning he's renowned for.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
Building nukes takes time, if they try the US will park an aircraft carrier off shore as long as necessary.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
This is why crystal clear aims are vital before you start anything.
Isn't that more likely to lead to problems with the sunk-cost fallacy? Maintaining flexible aims makes it easier to adjust.
Brent crude oil price tops $100 a barrel in Asian markets as the conflict in the Middle East enters another week.
Trump really doesn't want to win those midterms
With the oil price surging, and not shutting down talk about a draft, I can only conclude he's given this war the careful attention and diligent planning he's renowned for.
One thing that is notable is that with Venezuela and now Iran some of his supporters are trying to imply the impressive capability and planning of the US military in conducting operations is the same thing as Trump determining national policies in an ordered way.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
Building nukes takes time, if they try the US will park an aircraft carrier off shore as long as necessary.
There's a very wide range between building something reliable, efficient, and safe that you can stick on top of a rocket, and something that can quickly be assembled, might fizzle, or detonate in an accident, and can be stuffed into the back of a van for delivery. Generally countries go to great effort to build the former, because it's militarily useful, but Iran might seek the latter first.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
This is why crystal clear aims are vital before you start anything.
Isn't that more likely to lead to problems with the sunk-cost fallacy? Maintaining flexible aims makes it easier to adjust.
Clear does not mean inflexible. Far from it. There are bare minimum aims, stretch targets and levels in between. As opposed to none at all.
Gas prices at $6 per gallon in the US will absolutely focus minds in DC this week if they aren't already. The lack of organisation and coordination with on the ground rebels has been a real fuck up. Why hasn't the US been arming them for the past month already and why aren't insurgency commanders on the ground coordinating air strikes with rebel groups to provide cover for them to take down the IRGC.
On a more amusing and fruitful note, I have just made a perfectly amazing Salad Nicoise
This is not self praise, merely admiration of the dude who ever invented Salad Nicoise. There is a misconception that it is a summer salad for hot places, but that is so woing. It is ideal as consolation in winter (the umami, the spuds, the anchovies), as a light zzzzip of energy in summer, and it is great as a memory of summer in autumn, It is also extremely healthy and yet tastes as more-ish as the best fish and chips, it has a fast food gastro-vibe
The key is ingredients. You want the best of everything. Ortiz tuna in oil, Ortiz anchovies, Burford's eggs, the finest new potatoes (Jersey?), excellent bread to mop up, kalamata olives, really good capers, fine beans, just make sure everything is good. That means it is not cheap but it is still a world class culinary experience for about £15-20 a salad
Putting potatoes in whilst they are still hot, warm beans and soft boiled eggs at the last minute make sure it’s a perfectly non-summer meal.
I was weirdly going to cook that for some of my family tonight but they pooh-pooed it. Their loss.
Yes exactly! It's weirdly adapted to all seasons. The only difference is that in summer you probably reduce the spuds, a bit
It's also a fascinating example of a classic high quality dish where the "tinned" version of the main ingredient is better than the "real" version
I've had multiple nicoise salads where the chef boasts he uses fresh tuna, not tinned. But no matter how good it is (never that good), tinned is way better. Fresh tuna ruins the dish, weirdly. It dominates and the texture is wrong
Is there any other significant dish where that can be said? Tinned or canned is superior?
Corned beef and onion sandwuch
Not entirely convinced "corned beef and onion sandwich" is a globally iconic dish, but nonetheless I am intrigued. Why does tinned corned beef wim over cold roast beef? And what onions? Pickled? Fried? Raw?
Caramelised, maybe red onion. You'd want a sweeter hit against the salt of the CB
Ooh yes. I can basically taste that right now. MMM
My Dad, RIP, loved corned beef. Probably from his wartime and postwar austerity childhood, where it was practically a gourmet delight
He also had a lifelong love of cold pressed tongue (which I have inherited). It is delicious, and great in a sandwich with mustard
Again I figure this was austerity, offal and weird meat cuts were all that people could get - eg tongue. Sadly this also led to great British culinary cul de sacs, like overcooked school dinner liver, which tasted of ancient wellington boot
Corned beef is awesome. Offal is generally delicious although I'm not a tripe fan particularly. Liver needs flash frying Giblet stock for gravy. Nommers
I adore offal. In almost all form. Andouilettes! I actually relish the faint tang of urine, like Leopold Bloom
I've had great chitterlings, I've enjoyed tripe up to a point, and heart can be magnificent. It bursts with flavour. Just needs long and careful cooking
I draw the line at brains. OMG. Brains. The soft squidgy texture. Ach, no
I've had brains exactly once.
I only ate them because it was expected of me, and I didn't want to insult the host (my girlfriend's parents).
And I actually rather enjoyed them.
Looking back, I realise they were trying to get rid of me, and thought that serving me something so alien would cause me to do something stupid.
And then when -after initial trepidiation- I gleefully finished my plate, they were disappointed.
The relationship petered out relatively soon afterwards, mostly due to the fact that she was stark raving bonkers.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
I don't think Trump thinks that far ahead. He'll see the market reaction to oil above $$$$ and he'll declare a victory and stop the war.
That probably means there will be another round of bombing of Iran later on. Maybe unilateral Israeli action.
I just don't see Trump being that committed and with the resolve to see a war through to the end once it starts to get difficult.
Gas prices at $6 per gallon in the US will absolutely focus minds in DC this week if they aren't already. The lack of organisation and coordination with on the ground rebels has been a real fuck up. Why hasn't the US been arming them for the past month already and why aren't insurgency commanders on the ground coordinating air strikes with rebel groups to provide cover for them to take down the IRGC.
Didn't the US recently pull back from support of Syrian Kurdish groups? Maybe the Iranian and Iraqi ones are trying to be more cautious now.
Gas prices at $6 per gallon in the US will absolutely focus minds in DC this week if they aren't already. The lack of organisation and coordination with on the ground rebels has been a real fuck up. Why hasn't the US been arming them for the past month already and why aren't insurgency commanders on the ground coordinating air strikes with rebel groups to provide cover for them to take down the IRGC.
As seen elsewhere, the dildo of consequences is about to arrive, unlubricated...
Gas prices at $6 per gallon in the US will absolutely focus minds in DC this week if they aren't already. The lack of organisation and coordination with on the ground rebels has been a real fuck up. Why hasn't the US been arming them for the past month already and why aren't insurgency commanders on the ground coordinating air strikes with rebel groups to provide cover for them to take down the IRGC.
Apart from the Kurds, and Baluchis to a lesser extent, rebel groups don't exist. The opposition is widespread but unorganised. Doesn't help when it's concentrated in the major cities, too. The very places that a fuckton of bombing is happening.
Gas prices at $6 per gallon in the US will absolutely focus minds in DC this week if they aren't already. The lack of organisation and coordination with on the ground rebels has been a real fuck up. Why hasn't the US been arming them for the past month already and why aren't insurgency commanders on the ground coordinating air strikes with rebel groups to provide cover for them to take down the IRGC.
As seen elsewhere, the dildo of consequences is about to arrive, unlubricated...
But then, as my mother used to say, “everything’s a dildo if you are brave enough.”
“It has also decided, after an increase in anti-Semitic incidents over recent years, the attack on a synagogue leading to the murder of 2 Jews, 3 Muslim men convicted of a plot to carry out a massacre of Manchester Jews using AK47 machine guns, the arrest of people as part of an investigation into Iranian targeting of Jewish individuals and the Walney Report into Iranian infiltration of the UK charity sector that its priority right now should be having an anti-Muslim hatred Tsar.”
Why should the sins of a few individuals mean that Muslims in the UK are not deserving of protection against a rising tide of violence? If some Jewish men were found guilty of violent crimes, would we abolish laws against anti-Semitism? Of course not.
The need for an anti-Muslim hatred tsar is presumably motivated by the big rises in anti-Muslim violence in the UK in recent years: “anti-Muslim hate crime rose from 2,690 offences to 3,199 in the 12 months to March 2025.” https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/oct/09/muslim-charity-worried-hate-crimes-rise And note that maybe 80% of incidents aren’t even reported.
Gas prices at $6 per gallon in the US will absolutely focus minds in DC this week if they aren't already. The lack of organisation and coordination with on the ground rebels has been a real fuck up. Why hasn't the US been arming them for the past month already and why aren't insurgency commanders on the ground coordinating air strikes with rebel groups to provide cover for them to take down the IRGC.
As seen elsewhere, the dildo of consequences is about to arrive, unlubricated...
But then, as my mother used to say, “everything’s a dildo if you are brave enough.”
Gas prices at $6 per gallon in the US will absolutely focus minds in DC this week if they aren't already. The lack of organisation and coordination with on the ground rebels has been a real fuck up. Why hasn't the US been arming them for the past month already and why aren't insurgency commanders on the ground coordinating air strikes with rebel groups to provide cover for them to take down the IRGC.
As seen elsewhere, the dildo of consequences is about to arrive, unlubricated...
But then, as my mother used to say, “everything’s a dildo if you are brave enough.”
Was she an A&E doctor?
No, but having passed me there was nothing worse that could travel through her.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
I don't think Trump thinks that far ahead. He'll see the market reaction to oil above $$$$ and he'll declare a victory and stop the war.
That probably means there will be another round of bombing of Iran later on. Maybe unilateral Israeli action.
I just don't see Trump being that committed and with the resolve to see a war through to the end once it starts to get difficult.
Yes, there'll be no deeper rationale on the way out than there was on the way in. He'll just say "they're annihilated, we've won" and that will be it. Yet another war he'll have stopped. Getting on for a dozen now.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
I don't think Trump thinks that far ahead. He'll see the market reaction to oil above $$$$ and he'll declare a victory and stop the war.
That probably means there will be another round of bombing of Iran later on. Maybe unilateral Israeli action.
I just don't see Trump being that committed and with the resolve to see a war through to the end once it starts to get difficult.
Yes, there'll be no deeper rationale on the way out than there was on the way in. He'll just say "they're annihilated, we've won" and that will be it. Yet another war he'll have stopped. Getting on for a dozen now.
If you start a war it’s very easy to announce you have stopped another war.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
Building nukes takes time, if they try the US will park an aircraft carrier off shore as long as necessary.
There's a very wide range between building something reliable, efficient, and safe that you can stick on top of a rocket, and something that can quickly be assembled, might fizzle, or detonate in an accident, and can be stuffed into the back of a van for delivery. Generally countries go to great effort to build the former, because it's militarily useful, but Iran might seek the latter first.
HEU is very forgiving for bomb building.
You can use it in gun designs (no need to even test that first)
You can do cylindrical implosion - 2D rather than 3D
The George device yielded 200kt (and another 25kt from a fusion test it was designed to power)
A unique thing about that picture - the metal surrounding the hole in the middle is the actual cylindrical core of the weapon - the U235. You are looking at the king of hell.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
I don't think Trump thinks that far ahead. He'll see the market reaction to oil above $$$$ and he'll declare a victory and stop the war.
That probably means there will be another round of bombing of Iran later on. Maybe unilateral Israeli action.
I just don't see Trump being that committed and with the resolve to see a war through to the end once it starts to get difficult.
Yes, there'll be no deeper rationale on the way out than there was on the way in. He'll just say "they're annihilated, we've won" and that will be it. Yet another war he'll have stopped. Getting on for a dozen now.
If you start a war it’s very easy to announce you have stopped another war.
Yes it's quite the trick. Typical of this smart operator.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
Serious question for all, what, if anything, should I be buying now in case of panic or prices going mental? We all remember (and hopefully survived) the Great Covid Toilet Roll Craze, but is there anything other than oil that is likely to be seriously and rapidly affected by this situation?
I'm sitting on a gaming rig with many, many gb of memory bought last year thanks to PB commentators noticing the component price surge early. Anything worth getting in, now?
On a more amusing and fruitful note, I have just made a perfectly amazing Salad Nicoise
This is not self praise, merely admiration of the dude who ever invented Salad Nicoise. There is a misconception that it is a summer salad for hot places, but that is so woing. It is ideal as consolation in winter (the umami, the spuds, the anchovies), as a light zzzzip of energy in summer, and it is great as a memory of summer in autumn, It is also extremely healthy and yet tastes as more-ish as the best fish and chips, it has a fast food gastro-vibe
The key is ingredients. You want the best of everything. Ortiz tuna in oil, Ortiz anchovies, Burford's eggs, the finest new potatoes (Jersey?), excellent bread to mop up, kalamata olives, really good capers, fine beans, just make sure everything is good. That means it is not cheap but it is still a world class culinary experience for about £15-20 a salad
Putting potatoes in whilst they are still hot, warm beans and soft boiled eggs at the last minute make sure it’s a perfectly non-summer meal.
I was weirdly going to cook that for some of my family tonight but they pooh-pooed it. Their loss.
Yes exactly! It's weirdly adapted to all seasons. The only difference is that in summer you probably reduce the spuds, a bit
It's also a fascinating example of a classic high quality dish where the "tinned" version of the main ingredient is better than the "real" version
I've had multiple nicoise salads where the chef boasts he uses fresh tuna, not tinned. But no matter how good it is (never that good), tinned is way better. Fresh tuna ruins the dish, weirdly. It dominates and the texture is wrong
Is there any other significant dish where that can be said? Tinned or canned is superior?
A Caesar salad. Done properly it's absolutely delicious, though most are really quite poor.
You can't get the Caesar's these days. You have to make do with Berlusconis. Spoils the taste.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
Serious question for all, what, if anything, should I be buying now in case of panic or prices going mental? We all remember (and hopefully survived) the Great Covid Toilet Roll Craze, but is there anything other than oil that is likely to be seriously and rapidly affected by this situation?
I'm sitting on a gaming rig with many, many gb of memory bought last year thanks to PB commentators noticing the component price surge early. Anything worth getting in, now?
Buy guns, if you need anything if the world goes to shit you can just go and kill the people with the loo rolls and pasta. Guns take up less space so you can just raid and kill to suit your storage.
It's already becoming clear that yesterday's news was a major propaganda and humanitarian blunder by the Americans and Israelis.
There seems to be s strong sense of surprise among many that they have apparently now been targeted indiscriminately.
"Negin, who went out to buy a mask and an inhaler, said: “Even masks are becoming difficult to find. This is a huge mistake. I ask those who have the ability, especially foreign media, to reflect on this situation. What are people supposed to do under these conditions? This is truly a crime against humanity.”
Speaking about the effects on people of the US-Israeli strikes continuing around her she said, “This is no longer just a human rights violation. It is truly anti-human behaviour. If someone has a problem with the Islamic Republic government, that is one thing – but not with us, the people. You cannot attack water systems or refineries. Most of Tehran’s water comes from dams. If those become polluted, what happens then? The government has basically left people on their own.”
She said: “Prices are skyrocketing. I bought an inhaler for 850,000 tomans [£4.50]. Where are people supposed to get this money? Many people in Tehran are daily workers who haven’t had work for a long time. Food is becoming extremely expensive, and many things are becoming scarce.”
For Negin, who decided to stay in the city, there was a feeling of helplessness. “The pressure inside the country is becoming enormous. There are shortages of basic goods. There was no gasoline anywhere. Today in many places they are giving people only five litres of fuel. The situation is extremely painful.”
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
Serious question for all, what, if anything, should I be buying now in case of panic or prices going mental? We all remember (and hopefully survived) the Great Covid Toilet Roll Craze, but is there anything other than oil that is likely to be seriously and rapidly affected by this situation?
I'm sitting on a gaming rig with many, many gb of memory bought last year thanks to PB commentators noticing the component price surge early. Anything worth getting in, now?
Buy guns, if you need anything if the world goes to shit you can just go and kill the people with the loo rolls and pasta. Guns take up less space so you can just raid and kill to suit your storage.
Ah, Rust/Survival Game rules. Fair enough.
I was hoping more for the PB hive mind to notice that some obscure chemical is only produced in Iran or has to go via Iran, and it's the key ingredient in something valuable, so I can corner the market.
I can sell my gaming rig today for double what I paid for it last year...
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
Serious question for all, what, if anything, should I be buying now in case of panic or prices going mental? We all remember (and hopefully survived) the Great Covid Toilet Roll Craze, but is there anything other than oil that is likely to be seriously and rapidly affected by this situation?
I'm sitting on a gaming rig with many, many gb of memory bought last year thanks to PB commentators noticing the component price surge early. Anything worth getting in, now?
Buy guns, if you need anything if the world goes to shit you can just go and kill the people with the loo rolls and pasta. Guns take up less space so you can just raid and kill to suit your storage.
Ah, Rust/Survival Game rules. Fair enough.
I was hoping more for the PB hive mind to notice that some obscure chemical is only produced in Iran or has to go via Iran, and it's the key ingredient in something valuable, so I can corner the market.
I can sell my gaming rig today for double what I paid for it last year...
If you are asking on here you are already behind the people with contacts and control. Markets are cornered before you are thinking about them. Buy guns.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
Serious question for all, what, if anything, should I be buying now in case of panic or prices going mental? We all remember (and hopefully survived) the Great Covid Toilet Roll Craze, but is there anything other than oil that is likely to be seriously and rapidly affected by this situation?
I'm sitting on a gaming rig with many, many gb of memory bought last year thanks to PB commentators noticing the component price surge early. Anything worth getting in, now?
Buy guns, if you need anything if the world goes to shit you can just go and kill the people with the loo rolls and pasta. Guns take up less space so you can just raid and kill to suit your storage.
Ah, Rust/Survival Game rules. Fair enough.
I was hoping more for the PB hive mind to notice that some obscure chemical is only produced in Iran or has to go via Iran, and it's the key ingredient in something valuable, so I can corner the market.
I can sell my gaming rig today for double what I paid for it last year...
Sadly I was not paying close enough attention and my PC is getting quite aged and in need of upgrade or replacement. Needs to hold on at least a couple more years now.
...Thanks. I believe @viewcode is publishing something soon to which I submitted a detailed response which will also be published. That is... kinda all I want to say on the subject...
OK, draft 14 is up backstage (in the toilets as @Moonrabbit says). The details are:
kyf_100s latest draft of the discussant contribution is included
Main body: 13 sections, 1,898 words. This is the bit that PB publishes
Appendices: 23 appendices, 8,817 words. This will go in a separate PDF
Discussants: 2 discussants, 8,970 words. This will go in a separate PDF
I don't propose to make further changes to the main body. I might go thru the appendices and change some of the source numbering, but it is difficult to devote more time to this. @Cyclefree, you have the option to change/resubmit your discussant contribution if you wish: please let me know if you want to do that
@rcs1000, @DavidL, @fitalass, @Cyclefree, @TSE, @Nigelb, @kyf_100, @turbotubbs, if you have time please go thru the article and see if you can spot errors. I'm not going to change the text but if you spot citations that don't link or broken links, please tell me.
Unless you spot total disasters, I'll release this version to the prereaders on Tues/Weds
"The Trump Administration was dismayed by the scale and wide-spread destruction caused by Saturday’s strike campaign by Israel against oil infrastructure in and around the Iranian capital of Tehran, which reportedly targeting 30 oil and fuel depots sparking massive fires across the city that continue to burn into Sunday, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge who spoke to Axios.
U.S. officials state that Saturday’s strikes went far beyond what the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance, created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. Senior officials in the Trump Administration are concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and further driving up oil prices throughout the World."
"The Trump Administration was dismayed by the scale and wide-spread destruction caused by Saturday’s strike campaign by Israel against oil infrastructure in and around the Iranian capital of Tehran, which reportedly targeting 30 oil and fuel depots sparking massive fires across the city that continue to burn into Sunday, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge who spoke to Axios.
U.S. officials state that Saturday’s strikes went far beyond what the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance, created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. Senior officials in the Trump Administration are concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and further driving up oil prices throughout the World."
I don't actually think that "declare victory and end the war" is an option now for Trump. It's already escalated beyond the point where he can just stop and have everything settle back down to normal.
I don't actually think that "declare victory and end the war" is an option now for Trump. It's already escalated beyond the point where he can just stop and have everything settle back down to normal.
Yes he fucked it by not doing anything during the uprising. Now it’s a mishmash of regime change, not regime change if they blow me off, can we have the oil, can we rename Iran as “”Trump”.
I don't actually think that "declare victory and end the war" is an option now for Trump. It's already escalated beyond the point where he can just stop and have everything settle back down to normal.
Yes he fucked it by not doing anything during the uprising. Now it’s a mishmash of regime change, not regime change if they blow me off, can we have the oil, can we rename Iran as “”Trump”.
...Thanks. I believe @viewcode is publishing something soon to which I submitted a detailed response which will also be published. That is... kinda all I want to say on the subject...
OK, draft 14 is up backstage (in the toilets as @Moonrabbit says). The details are:
kyf_100s latest draft of the discussant contribution is included
Main body: 13 sections, 1,898 words. This is the bit that PB publishes
Appendices: 23 appendices, 8,817 words. This will go in a separate PDF
Discussants: 2 discussants, 8,970 words. This will go in a separate PDF
I don't propose to make further changes to the main body. I might go thru the appendices and change some of the source numbering, but it is difficult to devote more time to this. @Cyclefree, you have the option to change/resubmit your discussant contribution if you wish: please let me know if you want to do that
@rcs1000, @DavidL, @fitalass, @Cyclefree, @TSE, @Nigelb, @kyf_100, @turbotubbs, if you have time please go thru the article and see if you can spot errors. I'm not going to change the text but if you spot citations that don't link or broken links, please tell me.
Unless you spot total disasters, I'll release this version to the prereaders on Tues/Weds
Oh lordy, so many words that will never get read (my response, not the article!). I will proofread my contribution anyway. It is tiring. World War 3 is... maybe days away? At least we will die doing what we loved - arguing over trivial things...
I don't actually think that "declare victory and end the war" is an option now for Trump. It's already escalated beyond the point where he can just stop and have everything settle back down to normal.
Yes he fucked it by not doing anything during the uprising. Now it’s a mishmash of regime change, not regime change if they blow me off, can we have the oil, can we rename Iran as “”Trump”.
I think Venezuela (and Ukraine in a different way) has shown that Trump is more interested in 'deals' than democracy.
Brent crude oil price tops $100 a barrel in Asian markets as the conflict in the Middle East enters another week.
Trump really doesn't want to win those midterms
The more it goes up, the more it can come down.
I'm not sure that's true: damage to Iranian oil infrastucture means that a certain number of barrels will be lost from the world market until said infrastructure is repaired.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
I don't think Trump thinks that far ahead. He'll see the market reaction to oil above $$$$ and he'll declare a victory and stop the war.
That probably means there will be another round of bombing of Iran later on. Maybe unilateral Israeli action.
I just don't see Trump being that committed and with the resolve to see a war through to the end once it starts to get difficult.
Yes, there'll be no deeper rationale on the way out than there was on the way in. He'll just say "they're annihilated, we've won" and that will be it. Yet another war he'll have stopped. Getting on for a dozen now.
Assuming the Iranians will reciprocate. You can't say we won when the drones are still flying across the region. And I don't think this will change atmo without strong concessions form the American coalition.
Can you see Trump backing down and losing face? Especially when US servicemen are dying in his mess.
I don't think they can without regime change now because the next Iranian leadership will absolutely pursue nukes now at whatever the cost given what's just happened. The US and Israel need to win and they need to win this week. I don't know how they do that.
I don't think Trump thinks that far ahead. He'll see the market reaction to oil above $$$$ and he'll declare a victory and stop the war.
That probably means there will be another round of bombing of Iran later on. Maybe unilateral Israeli action.
I just don't see Trump being that committed and with the resolve to see a war through to the end once it starts to get difficult.
Yes, there'll be no deeper rationale on the way out than there was on the way in. He'll just say "they're annihilated, we've won" and that will be it. Yet another war he'll have stopped. Getting on for a dozen now.
Assuming the Iranians will reciprocate. You can't say we won when the drones are still flying across the region. And I don't think this will change atmo without strong concessions form the American coalition.
Can you see Trump backing down and losing face? Especially when US servicemen are dying in his mess.
The problem is that the "stable cretin" has stirred up a hornets nest that will force a heavy price on the Americans, whatever they do now. There are few good options and none that dont come at a significant cost. More to the point, even his allies are not invested in any outcome he could call victory.
Brent crude oil price tops $100 a barrel in Asian markets as the conflict in the Middle East enters another week.
Trump really doesn't want to win those midterms
The more it goes up, the more it can come down.
I'm not sure that's true: damage to Iranian oil infrastucture means that a certain number of barrels will be lost from the world market until said infrastructure is repaired.
Saudi mostly but OPEC more generally can make up the loss of production from Iran.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
"The Trump Administration was dismayed by the scale and wide-spread destruction caused by Saturday’s strike campaign by Israel against oil infrastructure in and around the Iranian capital of Tehran, which reportedly targeting 30 oil and fuel depots sparking massive fires across the city that continue to burn into Sunday, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge who spoke to Axios.
U.S. officials state that Saturday’s strikes went far beyond what the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance, created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. Senior officials in the Trump Administration are concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and further driving up oil prices throughout the World."
Wow. So it turns out the Israelis have their own malign agenda. I mean, who could have foreseen that?
"The Trump Administration was dismayed by the scale and wide-spread destruction caused by Saturday’s strike campaign by Israel against oil infrastructure in and around the Iranian capital of Tehran, which reportedly targeting 30 oil and fuel depots sparking massive fires across the city that continue to burn into Sunday, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge who spoke to Axios.
U.S. officials state that Saturday’s strikes went far beyond what the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance, created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. Senior officials in the Trump Administration are concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and further driving up oil prices throughout the World."
Wow. So it turns out the Israelis have their own malign agenda. I mean, who could have foreseen that?
The question is really what is Trump going to do about it. Israel's war aims and the US's seem widely different. Israel (meaning Natanyahu) I think would quite like a failed state. Trump wants a US regional ally.
"The Trump Administration was dismayed by the scale and wide-spread destruction caused by Saturday’s strike campaign by Israel against oil infrastructure in and around the Iranian capital of Tehran, which reportedly targeting 30 oil and fuel depots sparking massive fires across the city that continue to burn into Sunday, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge who spoke to Axios.
U.S. officials state that Saturday’s strikes went far beyond what the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance, created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. Senior officials in the Trump Administration are concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and further driving up oil prices throughout the World."
Wow. So it turns out the Israelis have their own malign agenda. I mean, who could have foreseen that?
The question is really what is Trump going to do about it. Israel's war aims and the US's seem widely different. Israel (meaning Natanyahu) I think would quite like a failed state. Trump wants a US regional ally.
Exactly. Who knows how Trump reacts. Up to now the US has been behaving like the junior party, for reasons unknown.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
I can't see how they can "win". I think Iranian oil production is going to be limited for months/years, and we're going to have years of sporadic drone attacks on the Gulf States. And that's a best case scenario.
The chance of a stable, rational regime that can control the nuttier elements of their population must be <5%.
"The Trump Administration was dismayed by the scale and wide-spread destruction caused by Saturday’s strike campaign by Israel against oil infrastructure in and around the Iranian capital of Tehran, which reportedly targeting 30 oil and fuel depots sparking massive fires across the city that continue to burn into Sunday, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge who spoke to Axios.
U.S. officials state that Saturday’s strikes went far beyond what the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance, created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. Senior officials in the Trump Administration are concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and further driving up oil prices throughout the World."
Wow. So it turns out the Israelis have their own malign agenda. I mean, who could have foreseen that?
The question is really what is Trump going to do about it. Israel's war aims and the US's seem widely different. Israel (meaning Natanyahu) I think would quite like a failed state. Trump wants a US regional ally.
Exactly. Who knows how Trump reacts. Up to now the US has been behaving like the junior party, for reasons unknown.
I think part of it is that Israel has a clear agenda - the destruction of Iran - while the people around Trump have their own different agendas. What Miller, Rubio, Hegseth and Vance want are all different, while Trump is not on top of things to give direction.
Same with Venezuela, but it didn't matter so much because it was a more limited operation.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
I can't see how they can "win". I think Iranian oil production is going to be limited for months/years, and we're going to have years of sporadic drone attacks on the Gulf States. And that's a best case scenario.
The chance of a stable, rational regime that can control the nuttier elements of their population must be 5%.
They appointed the Ayatollah's son. That isn't a leadership looking at stopping the war...
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
The price updates 4 times a year. Next winter is going to be exp
"The Trump Administration was dismayed by the scale and wide-spread destruction caused by Saturday’s strike campaign by Israel against oil infrastructure in and around the Iranian capital of Tehran, which reportedly targeting 30 oil and fuel depots sparking massive fires across the city that continue to burn into Sunday, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge who spoke to Axios.
U.S. officials state that Saturday’s strikes went far beyond what the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance, created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. Senior officials in the Trump Administration are concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and further driving up oil prices throughout the World."
Eh? The US announced on Friday that there would be a massive ramping up of its bombing attacks over the weekend, with “guaranteed death”
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
The price updates 4 times a year. Next winter is going to be exp
I agree but my point is there's quite a lag before higher prices hit. And before winter.
We have months, rather than days, for prices to normalise in terms of maximum impact on UK consumers.
"The Trump Administration was dismayed by the scale and wide-spread destruction caused by Saturday’s strike campaign by Israel against oil infrastructure in and around the Iranian capital of Tehran, which reportedly targeting 30 oil and fuel depots sparking massive fires across the city that continue to burn into Sunday, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge who spoke to Axios.
U.S. officials state that Saturday’s strikes went far beyond what the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance, created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. Senior officials in the Trump Administration are concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and further driving up oil prices throughout the World."
We who are keen on leopards eating faces had not realised that our coalition partners, The Leopards Eating Faces party, were quite so enthusiastic about big cat face consumption.
‘didn’t think i’d ever see this, but lindsey graham thinks israelis may have overdone it on the bombing.’
I think this means in layman's terms whenever the price for Brent etc changes it reflects someone buying or selling oil. Right now there isn't any oil to buy
Brent crude prompt timespread is currently over *$9/bbl*, a new all-time record.
Timespreads measure the steepness of the crude futures curve, which at the front (prompt) reflects how tight—loose if neg—the spot market is.
The oil market has literally never been this tight.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
I have mixed views on the price cap. And these energy support schemes are pretty malign, in the long run - we already have a substantial welfare system to help low income households we can use instead, and such a scheme sends all the wrong signals about energy use and government largesse. Wars and recessions are supposed to hurt.
I think consumers should have hedged against this. The solar/battery/heat pump/EV brigade will be feeling smug, and so they should be.
Futures down, oil up, dollar up. Looks like plenty more war on the way
"Dollar up" is a switch from 1gbp=1.34usd to 1gbp=1.33usd, which is meaningless when you consider Trumps weak dollar policy has risen it from 1gbp=1.20usd-ish a year ago.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
The price updates 4 times a year. Next winter is going to be exp
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
The price updates 4 times a year. Next winter is going to be exp
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
The price updates 4 times a year. Next winter is going to be exp
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
The price updates 4 times a year. Next winter is going to be exp
What is "exp" please?
lol
I know what "lol" is. But what is "exp"?
In maths, it would be exponential.
Which is the sort of growth in energy prices we might be about to see.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
Serious question for all, what, if anything, should I be buying now in case of panic or prices going mental? We all remember (and hopefully survived) the Great Covid Toilet Roll Craze, but is there anything other than oil that is likely to be seriously and rapidly affected by this situation?
I'm sitting on a gaming rig with many, many gb of memory bought last year thanks to PB commentators noticing the component price surge early. Anything worth getting in, now?
Buy guns, if you need anything if the world goes to shit you can just go and kill the people with the loo rolls and pasta. Guns take up less space so you can just raid and kill to suit your storage.
Ah, Rust/Survival Game rules. Fair enough.
I was hoping more for the PB hive mind to notice that some obscure chemical is only produced in Iran or has to go via Iran, and it's the key ingredient in something valuable, so I can corner the market.
I can sell my gaming rig today for double what I paid for it last year...
Helium ? Iran shuttering Gulf natural gas production has also curtailed supplies of helium (it's a byproduct, and Qatar is the second largest producer after the US), It's essential for semiconductor manufacturing.
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
The price updates 4 times a year. Next winter is going to be exp
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
The price updates 4 times a year. Next winter is going to be exp
What is "exp" please?
lol
I know what "lol" is. But what is "exp"?
Expletive - insert your own depending on your supplier.
...Thanks. I believe @viewcode is publishing something soon to which I submitted a detailed response which will also be published. That is... kinda all I want to say on the subject...
OK, draft 14 is up backstage (in the toilets as @Moonrabbit says). The details are:
kyf_100s latest draft of the discussant contribution is included
Main body: 13 sections, 1,898 words. This is the bit that PB publishes
Appendices: 23 appendices, 8,817 words. This will go in a separate PDF
Discussants: 2 discussants, 8,970 words. This will go in a separate PDF
I don't propose to make further changes to the main body. I might go thru the appendices and change some of the source numbering, but it is difficult to devote more time to this. @Cyclefree, you have the option to change/resubmit your discussant contribution if you wish: please let me know if you want to do that
@rcs1000, @DavidL, @fitalass, @Cyclefree, @TSE, @Nigelb, @kyf_100, @turbotubbs, if you have time please go thru the article and see if you can spot errors. I'm not going to change the text but if you spot citations that don't link or broken links, please tell me.
Unless you spot total disasters, I'll release this version to the prereaders on Tues/Weds
How long before the spike in energy prices starts feeding into the wider economy ?
Any economists in here ?
Within the next few days. I expect petrol prices to become unpalatable by the end of the week and an emergency rise in the energy price cap by the end of next week if this is still ongoing. Oil and gas prices are returning to the rates we saw during the start of the Ukraine war.
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
No need for an emergency rise in the energy price cap. The providers knew what it was and should have hedged the risk via forward contracts. Any that failed to deserve the resulting losses, just as they would have benefited from outsized gains if prices had fallen.
Petrol prices will be much higher.
I have mixed views on the price cap. And these energy support schemes are pretty malign, in the long run - we already have a substantial welfare system to help low income households we can use instead, and such a scheme sends all the wrong signals about energy use and government largesse. Wars and recessions are supposed to hurt.
I think consumers should have hedged against this. The solar/battery/heat pump/EV brigade will be feeling smug, and so they should be.
Comments
Any economists in here ?
The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.
He might be the greatest pianist of all time
He was invited to a premiere of his friend Huey “Piano” Smith’s new album performance. Backstage he is said to have told Huey “That was great, but you should have played that bit like this” and played it better. Then he played one of Huey’s new songs backwards to him
This is my favourite recording of him; just James, a piano and a small crowd, live at the Maple Leaf in NOLA
The Resurrection Of The Bayou Maharajah
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6A2DF5D02CAD3CF8&si=2YGiZO0eCAvx2UP9
We need for the US and Israel to win and win fast or I fear that inflation will soon hit 5-6% and living standards are going to fall fast.
543% increase in the Baltic LNG index this week - the largest % increase in history - on a rush to secure US, Russian, and LNG cargoes after the complete loss of Qatari volumes
https://x.com/dachshundcolin/status/2030763553536331934?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
(I know that doesn't offset recent gains, but nonetheless).
There are bare minimum aims, stretch targets and levels in between.
As opposed to none at all.
https://bsky.app/profile/paleofuture.bsky.social/post/3mglgthwgv22q
That probably means there will be another round of bombing of Iran later on. Maybe unilateral Israeli action.
I just don't see Trump being that committed and with the resolve to see a war through to the end once it starts to get difficult.
Demented bollocks, of course, but if he ends the war without destroying the regime, his real estate plans for Gaza look a lot less attractive...
Doesn't help when it's concentrated in the major cities, too.
The very places that a fuckton of bombing is happening.
"A blessing for the Tsar? Of course! May God bless and keep the Tsar… far away from us!”
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
You can use it in gun designs (no need to even test that first)
You can do cylindrical implosion - 2D rather than 3D
The George device yielded 200kt (and another 25kt from a fusion test it was designed to power)
A unique thing about that picture - the metal surrounding the hole in the middle is the actual cylindrical core of the weapon - the U235. You are looking at the king of hell.
US airforce has started to Hammer Iranian backed militias in Iraq who have attacked US bases with dozens of drones and rockets in support of Iran-WSJ
I'm sitting on a gaming rig with many, many gb of memory bought last year thanks to PB commentators noticing the component price surge early. Anything worth getting in, now?
There seems to be s strong sense of surprise among many that they have apparently now been targeted indiscriminately.
"Negin, who went out to buy a mask and an inhaler, said: “Even masks are becoming difficult to find. This is a huge mistake. I ask those who have the ability, especially foreign media, to reflect on this situation. What are people supposed to do under these conditions? This is truly a crime against humanity.”
Speaking about the effects on people of the US-Israeli strikes continuing around her she said, “This is no longer just a human rights violation. It is truly anti-human behaviour. If someone has a problem with the Islamic Republic government, that is one thing – but not with us, the people. You cannot attack water systems or refineries. Most of Tehran’s water comes from dams. If those become polluted, what happens then? The government has basically left people on their own.”
She said: “Prices are skyrocketing. I bought an inhaler for 850,000 tomans [£4.50]. Where are people supposed to get this money? Many people in Tehran are daily workers who haven’t had work for a long time. Food is becoming extremely expensive, and many things are becoming scarce.”
For Negin, who decided to stay in the city, there was a feeling of helplessness. “The pressure inside the country is becoming enormous. There are shortages of basic goods. There was no gasoline anywhere. Today in many places they are giving people only five litres of fuel. The situation is extremely painful.”
I was hoping more for the PB hive mind to notice that some obscure chemical is only produced in Iran or has to go via Iran, and it's the key ingredient in something valuable, so I can corner the market.
I can sell my gaming rig today for double what I paid for it last year...
- kyf_100s latest draft of the discussant contribution is included
- Main body: 13 sections, 1,898 words. This is the bit that PB publishes
- Appendices: 23 appendices, 8,817 words. This will go in a separate PDF
- Discussants: 2 discussants, 8,970 words. This will go in a separate PDF
I don't propose to make further changes to the main body. I might go thru the appendices and change some of the source numbering, but it is difficult to devote more time to this. @Cyclefree, you have the option to change/resubmit your discussant contribution if you wish: please let me know if you want to do that@rcs1000, @DavidL, @fitalass, @Cyclefree, @TSE, @Nigelb, @kyf_100, @turbotubbs, if you have time please go thru the article and see if you can spot errors. I'm not going to change the text but if you spot citations that don't link or broken links, please tell me.
Unless you spot total disasters, I'll release this version to the prereaders on Tues/Weds
U.S. officials state that Saturday’s strikes went far beyond what the United States expected when Israel notified it in advance, created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. Senior officials in the Trump Administration are concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and further driving up oil prices throughout the World."
Can you see Trump backing down and losing face? Especially when US servicemen are dying in his mess.
Ministers 'consider freezing energy bills' after war drives up prices
Which you know the Saudis would love.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agg4eTiqDNg
"The flavour is in the fat" as my grandpa used to say.
Uppy early Downy slowly, the old motto, any chance of a rise they wack it up, leave it up as long as possible long after core price comes down.
The on small domestic gas benefit is that this has happened going in to summer and not winter.
Five by-elections this week. Mainly Lib-Dem
*The Beeches (Cotswold)
*Aigburth (Liverpool)
*Sleaford Westholme (North Kesteven)
*Abingdon Abbey Northcourt (Vale of White Horse)
*Penrith South (Westmorland & Furness)
Are we going to see an upset?
Petrol prices will be much higher.
Buckle up.
The chance of a stable, rational regime that can control the nuttier elements of their population must be <5%.
Same with Venezuela, but it didn't matter so much because it was a more limited operation.
We have months, rather than days, for prices to normalise in terms of maximum impact on UK consumers.
‘didn’t think i’d ever see this, but lindsey graham thinks israelis may have overdone it on the bombing.’
https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/2030833944086605961?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Brent crude prompt timespread is currently over *$9/bbl*, a new all-time record.
Timespreads measure the steepness of the crude futures curve, which at the front (prompt) reflects how tight—loose if neg—the spot market is.
The oil market has literally never been this tight.
https://bsky.app/profile/roryjohnston.bsky.social/post/3mgltomig7s24
I think consumers should have hedged against this. The solar/battery/heat pump/EV brigade will be feeling smug, and so they should be.
Which is the sort of growth in energy prices we might be about to see.
Iran shuttering Gulf natural gas production has also curtailed supplies of helium (it's a byproduct, and Qatar is the second largest producer after the US), It's essential for semiconductor manufacturing.