Google's AI search returned a summary of a user's posts when I was trying to find an old post of theirs earlier.
So, I thought I'd Google "politicalbetting carnforth" for a laugh:
"Politicalbetting Carnforth" refers to the long-standing headquarters and base of operations for PoliticalBetting.com, one of the UK’s most influential political analysis and wagering websites.
Connection to Carnforth
Administrative Base: The site, founded and edited for many years by Mike Smithson, has its official contact and administrative roots in Carnforth, Lancashire.
Operational History: For much of its history, the site's correspondence and management were handled from this location, making "PoliticalBetting Carnforth" a common search term for users looking for official site information or contact details.
If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.
Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs
The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda
The Telegraph does not agree with you
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.
He didn't have the balls to sack her
She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.
She chose not to care.
I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
Desperate stuff.
What's Pritti got hidden that means no Tory Leader will sack her.
Naturally one regrets the loss of top class contributors but twas ever thus on PB. People come and go, and as they do so the character of the site changes like a slowly turning kaleidoscope. Like you, I could make a long list of people who I miss. I'd start with Benedict White, and that really is going back a long way to the time when the Tory Herd was a thing.
The site goes through its phases, but it has always been light on female contributors. This is no doubt connected to its betting origins. Although we miss the late Plato and the combative Snowflake I should say there are thankfully more women posters now than there have ever been. There are still not enough though, so may I entreat you personally to stick around. There is less misogyny and locker room humour than there used to be but there's still plenty of room for improvement, and I say that as a serial offender. The contributions of Cyclefree and your good self are a helpful corrective.
Sixty, eh? I hadn't realised you were one of the youngsters. Here's to many more years of Fit contributions.
You're not wrong, my friend. I'd add such alumni as @MarkSenior and the @HYUFD of his time, Richard Willis.
Broadly speaking, the site has been anti-"Left" and anti-"Labour" for most of its existence. That doesn't translate to "it's all just Tories" and there was plenty of criticism of the Conservatives in Government though more often of the Mail-esque "why aren't you governing like Conservatives and cutting my taxes?" angle.
LDs have always been over represented, I'll cheerfully admit that.
The coming of social media has been the game changer - whereas individuals had to form their own arguments in posts, now they can run off to X or Bluesky or wherever and simply "cut and paste" that so instead of being a forum for political debate, it becomes a forum for political and news reportage and instant (over)reaction to events.
The betting aspect has never perhaps been as strong as Mike Smithson wanted and that's probably because the bookies have gotten wise to politics in a way they weren't 25-30 years ago. I won a lot of money in the 1997 election betting on LD seat gains which I could see and even the local independent bookie in Carshalton couldn't.
The market mentioned in the thread is unappealing unless you want a speculative wager. IF you think Starmer will walk away before the next election, you can play on the Labour possibles but if he chooses to tough it out, given three years is an eternity in politics, assuming one of the non-Labour options will succeed is probably wishful thinking and bookies love people who bet on sentiment (they coin it in every World Cup when patriotic punters play at unrealistic prices and lose their cash).
To be honest, I'd rather play on the all weather card at Lingfield.
Yes, thank you for that, Stodge. I would go along with it all, especially the point about the bookies getting wise. Back in my professional betting days my profits split roughly equally between my two specialist subjects - National Hunt and politics. The latter gave a much higher rate of return, but of course lacked the regularity of the former. I used to refer to betting on politics as like shooting fish in a barrel. It's no longer like that. The other punters as well as the bookies have become smarter.
You are right also about the changes wrought by social media. It has however made the site all the more valuable. There is no other on which I can rely for intelligent and authentic debate. You and I have had the privilege of meeting, and whilst we may not agree on every matter, we can depend on an absence bullshit. The same applies to most of those with whom we engage on here, whether we know them personally or not. This makes the site invaluable. Imposters get short shrift (like the laughable Lawson yesterday) and invariably sulk off to peddle their counterfeit wares elsewhere.
No, Starmer isn't going anywhere. And for what it's worth, I think that a World Cup under Trump is as likely to be as free and fair as an election under him. He wouldn't want a European side to win. The USA will do well, but simply aren't good enough to go the whole way. My money is on Argentina,
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
An independent Wales would make poverty seem like a totally insufficient word.
That seems a small price to pay to have a fully operational international airport a quarter of an hour from home.
That's another thing that would need fixing. And not on the existing site as it's a damnfool place for an airport. The Glamorgan Levels would be the obvious place but the shrieking from environmentalists would be something else.
Ironically it would be easier to do in North Wales where there's decent infrastructure already for an apart on Anglesey by taking over RAF Valley although the runway would presumably need rebuilding.
Estuary airport on the Eastern end of the Llanwern Steel Works site rears up every few decades. But that would kill both Rhoose and Bristol.
Rhoose isn't as easily accessible from the M4 as would be optimal, but neither is Bristol from the M5. In the multi storey at Bristol airport more cars have a "c" prefix than a "w" prefix.
Valley would be no use to anyone. More importantly it's five hours from me
Well, yes, killing both airports should be the name of the game. They're both useless. You can't even get to Bristol by train and the bus transfer is absolutely extortionate.
I wasn't thinking of Valley as a replacement for Cardiff, but as an airport in its own right.
So we have in less than half a dozen posts resolved air travel in both South Wales and South West England. The Goldie Looking Chain (Gwent Levels) International Airport.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
It took my wife and I, 9 hours to go to Cardiff v Shrewsbury and back and just 6 to London and back
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
Catch-22. To apply for EU membership, they have to be independent. So they have to sort these issues first before becoming eligible for that solution to sort these issues out.
'The Liberal and National party leaders are getting the Coalition back together after announcing a reunification deal.
The Coalition split after three National senators broke away from shadow cabinet and voted against the government's hate groups bill, and were then fired from the front bench.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
Catch-22. To apply for EU membership, they have to be independent. So they have to sort these issues first before becoming eligible for that solution to sort these issues out.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
It took my wife and I, 9 hours to go to Cardiff v Shrewsbury and back and just 6 to London and back
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
In the 1980s South Wales was thriving as a result of inward manufacturing investment on the back of Common Market grants.
I'd take the chance on independence and an EU Referendum. There again I'm dead within two decades so I haven't so much to lose.
Alli on that email was holidaying with Mandy on Epstein Island
If you take away the criminal thrill enticement, I'm hard pressed to understand what was so great about partying with Epstein that would entice the super wealthy and connected to hang around him - they have so many more options if they want to hobnob with each other, or have a drugged up (but otherwise legal) orgy or whatever.
For a number of them, Trump included, it was also the money laundering and access to dodgy funds from places like Russia.
The jet and private island were likely an attraction for politicians who couldn't dream of affording either.
For scientists, he was a source of funding.
For the very rich, access to an array of politicians on terms they probably couldn't arrange themselves.
As well as a criminal and rapist, he was an assiduous networker, and provided a unique mix of services for those who care nothing for morality. There wasn't really anyone else quite like that.
And recall this was two decades ago. Quite a different world.
Depending what his stooges wanted, Epstein offered access to some combination of money, power, glamour and sex. Something for everyone. And for all of them, he offered privacy and the reassurance that of course you are entitled to whatever-it-is with no consequences.
And for a couple of decades, there weren't many consequences. And whilst I hope that society has changed for the better, it's just as possible that the grosser abuse has just mutated into something else and the money/power bit of the offer has moved on but not really changed.
Once you start craving money or power, it's very hard to say "that's enough, thank you".
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
It took my wife and I, 9 hours to go to Cardiff v Shrewsbury and back and just 6 to London and back
They operate proper trains between Cardiff and Manchester. Plus the daily service from/to Holyhead. Class 67s on Mark 4 stock. Everything else is plastic.
If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.
Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs
The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda
The Telegraph does not agree with you
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.
He didn't have the balls to sack her
She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.
She chose not to care.
I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
Desperate stuff.
What's Pritti got hidden that means no Tory Leader will sack her.
If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.
Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs
The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda
The Telegraph does not agree with you
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?
Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.
Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.
She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.
She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her
She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs
The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.
Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
And (c) their appalling record in office over fourteen fucking dreadful years, when the country went into total decline, on all fronts, and they allowed Woke and immigration to get catastrophically out of hand (and of course, for many voters, Brexit)
What sane person would vote for them again on the basis of “no honestly we’ve learned our lesson, this time we really will be right wing and do actual right wing things instead of pretending to do them”
The Tories are ugly, dickless, treacherous morons. They would do the same shit all over again given the chance. Their MPs are all woke Lib Dems in disguise. Remember Chagos STARTED under them. i despise them. I more than despise them. I want the Tories to fucking die and be buried in a noisome pit and then I will go the noisome pit and build the world’s biggest urinal on top of it. And THEN I will cover it in thirteen megatons of putrid Albanian taxi drivers’ manure and then I will dig the corpse of the Tories up again only so it can be brutally sodomised by a massive tumescent necrophiliac waxwork of 80s popster Shaking Stevens and then reburied at the abyssal bottom of the Mariana Trench
You may be an irritating old tosser but it's hard not to smile at some of your diatribes. Obviously I share your hopes for the future of the Tories but for different reasons.
But bear with me for a second. I genuinely think a lot of the middle classes want a sound money, one nation, small 'c' conservative centre-right party, and no one is offering that at the moment. If the Tories run rightward in pursuit of Reform many of those people will vote elsewhere imo. Where, I'm not sure - LDs maybe; Starmer Labour? probably not again; some new party or grouping that has yet to emerge? maybe.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
In the 1980s South Wales was thriving as a result of inward manufacturing investment on the back of Common Market grants.
I'd take the chance on independence and an EU Referendum. There again I'm dead within two decades so I haven't so much to lose.
That was my point. While I think it's extraordinarily unlikely, a large enough independence movement might accept the very real pain involved.
Unlike Brexit, there might be a positive endgame for those with enough patience. But like Brexit, it would be a massive gamble, and no one is going to believe promises on the side of a bus ever again.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
They'd need £5.2bn a year just to break even on the loss of UK transfers. That's roughly the average Romania has received yearly since joining the EU. And Romania is four times the population, and a lot poorer.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
Catch-22. To apply for EU membership, they have to be independent. So they have to sort these issues first before becoming eligible for that solution to sort these issues out.
Think of it ... like having a baby.
I'm hoping Wales won't be involved with Labour for some time after May, actually.
If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.
Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs
The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda
The Telegraph does not agree with you
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
Didnt you read the telegraph this morning ?
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
Kemi knows Pritti was recommended by the One pendent Assessor to be removed from Boris Cabinet.
He didn't have the balls to sack her
She appointed to the role of Shadow Foreign Secretary a person who turned up as a Minister of State in Tel Aviv without authorisation passing on State information.
She chose not to care.
I'd argue the latter a far bigger threat to State security not withstanding the sexual devient that was Epstein
Desperate stuff.
Its all so reminiscent of tim.it could easily be a reemergence.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
Catch-22. To apply for EU membership, they have to be independent. So they have to sort these issues first before becoming eligible for that solution to sort these issues out.
Think of it ... like having a baby.
I'm hoping Wales won't be involved with Labour for some time after May, actually.
Considering Wales is still in the UK, and Labour run the UK (inc Wales) via London, that would take some doing.
You'd need Welsh independence to achieve that and I can't see that happening by May ever.
If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.
Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs
The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda
The Telegraph does not agree with you
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?
Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.
Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.
She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.
She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her
She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs
The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.
Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
And (c) their appalling record in office over fourteen fucking dreadful years, when the country went into total decline, on all fronts, and they allowed Woke and immigration to get catastrophically out of hand (and of course, for many voters, Brexit)
What sane person would vote for them again on the basis of “no honestly we’ve learned our lesson, this time we really will be right wing and do actual right wing things instead of pretending to do them”
The Tories are ugly, dickless, treacherous morons. They would do the same shit all over again given the chance. Their MPs are all woke Lib Dems in disguise. Remember Chagos STARTED under them. i despise them. I more than despise them. I want the Tories to fucking die and be buried in a noisome pit and then I will go the noisome pit and build the world’s biggest urinal on top of it. And THEN I will cover it in thirteen megatons of putrid Albanian taxi drivers’ manure and then I will dig the corpse of the Tories up again only so it can be brutally sodomised by a massive tumescent necrophiliac waxwork of 80s popster Shaking Stevens and then reburied at the abyssal bottom of the Mariana Trench
The majority of the people with any power in those fourteen years have either retired or defected. I would say that Kemi's Tories are less tainted with the 2019-24 period than Reform's politicians are now. They needed a bit of time to collect their thoughts and rebrand. I think Kemi has done that and her personal appeal, along with the likes of Lam, Trott and Lopez will see the party appear to be quite a refreshing change
Brown's 'independent anti-corruption commission' is a classic Brown move - like when he left office and put Ministerial pay down as one of his last acts. You put a quango in place, with all the requisite biases of such organisations - Margaret Hodge is the suggested leader - give it lots of powers, just in time for a new right wing Government to come in, whereupon the anti-corruption commission will be declaring everything and everyone corrupt within five minutes of them getting them keys to Number 10. Then that new Government has yet another limit on its room for manoeuvre, and has to 'abolish the independent anti-corruption commission' and face those headlines if it wants to do anything.
I’m sure Margaret is just the person to root out all the rottenness.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
They'd need £5.2bn a year just to break even on the loss of UK transfers. That's roughly the average Romania has received yearly since joining the EU. And Romania is four times the population, and a lot poorer.
And of course Wales voted leave, so it would take some chutzpah to (re)apply.
Rhun ap Iorwerth on Kunnesberg says he will not increase taxes in Wales but will demand a fair share from Westminster
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
So he's not going for full independence like he professes to believe in then?
Frit.
Smart enough to not push it right now. Get people used to voting for PC to run the nation, and support may well rise enough down the line.
There is a hell of a lot of work to do for Wales in terms of its economy, transport infrastructure, power generation and legal system before independence is anything other than a pipe dream. At the moment, for example, it is not possible to go by train from South Wales to North Wales without going through England, and it's quicker to go via England even by car. They could certainly survive in terms of electricity, but gas and oil are more of a stretch even with Milford Haven. They have no legal system, essentially piggy-backing on England's. As for their economy, well, it's one of the worst in Europe in terms of productivity, variety and resilience, and that is not forgetting Albania. It's slightly less corrupt than Bosnia or Ukraine, at the moment.
All that would need addressing before independence becomes a realistic prospect. It's not like Scotland where you could see how while there would be some painful moments the package as a whole could work (a la Ireland in 1922).
And I see no plan from anyone to address it. It could be done, but it would take time, money, hard work, imagination and honesty.
Five years? Don't make me laugh, twenty more like, and that's in the vanishingly unlikely event that somebody thought of a way to do it.
On a decade's view, might they be better off as a small EU country ? They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
Catch-22. To apply for EU membership, they have to be independent. So they have to sort these issues first before becoming eligible for that solution to sort these issues out.
For what it's worth, and I pay less attention to politics than I used to and much less than the average here, the criticism and negative attention I've seen thrown at Badenoch seems par for the course for a major political leader. Consider the heaps of effluence regularly emptied atop Starmer.
Starmer deserves the effluent
Does the effluent deserve Starmer is a more pertinent question.
If Starmer resigned then yes a Healey or Benn could replace Sir Keir. Yet there is no sign Starmer will resign and after last night’s Opinium poll putting Labour 7% ahead of the Tories and Reform unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.
Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs
The ladies on the panel on Trevor Phillips furiously attacked the man's club in politics which you certainly qualify for with your relentless anti Kemi propaganda
The Telegraph does not agree with you
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
I am not anti Kemi because she is a woman, the Japanese PM is female and has won a landslide re election victory today.
If Kemi was making progress in the polls she would be fine but she isn’t, the Tories are now trailing even a deeply unpopular Labour government let alone Reform. She has to improve that to survive
Things take time. If a leader can't be given the space to develop their ideas at the start of opposition after fourteen years in power and a diabolical defeat, when can they?
Mikel Arteta took Arsenal to consecutive eighth place finishes in his first two seasons in charge, but the board believed in him, gave him time, and he has transformed the club to the point where they are regarded as one of the top three sides in the world. Other clubs roll the dice and make the situation worse.
Kemi has a unique opportunity, her personal ratings are improving fast and, if that continues, the Tories polling will surely follow
She has been, she is into her second year in the job and the Tories are polling even worse than they did at the 2024 general election.
She was elected to unite the right and push back Reform, she failed to do that and has lost Jenrick, Kruger, Braverman, Rosindell etc to Reform and just boosted Farage further.
She also has trashed centrists in her party and has less appeal to swing voters than Cleverly. Tory MPs have given her plenty of chances but if the Tories bomb in May Kemi will be gone
Personally, I rate Kemi considerably higher than any alternative.
I quite like Kemi, also slightly fancy her
She is said to be hard to work for, and somewhat scatter brained. And rubs people the wrong way. On the other hand she has good instincts on Woke, she is definitely getting better at a really difficult job. Of late she has made Skyr look an absolute muppet several times in PMQs
The problem is not Kemi, it is the Tory brand. It is Ratnered to fuckistan and back again. It will take two general elections to recover if it ever does. Who else would do better? Cleverly is boring and woke and responsible for Chagos, Lam is too young and possibly just a white Kemi. Jenrick has gone. Mel Stride does not actually exist. Likewise Chris “Philp”. The late Keith Chegwin is dead and was a children’s TV presenter FFS, why would they choose him, and what could he do from the grave? Jeremy Hunt?????
The Tories understand money and stewarding the economy. And they are also the only party on the table that, at least nominally, pushed back against a larger state.
Their trouble is (a) their confidence and courage of their conviction and (b) their utter reliance on the elderly.
And (c) their appalling record in office over fourteen fucking dreadful years, when the country went into total decline, on all fronts, and they allowed Woke and immigration to get catastrophically out of hand (and of course, for many voters, Brexit)
What sane person would vote for them again on the basis of “no honestly we’ve learned our lesson, this time we really will be right wing and do actual right wing things instead of pretending to do them”
The Tories are ugly, dickless, treacherous morons. They would do the same shit all over again given the chance. Their MPs are all woke Lib Dems in disguise. Remember Chagos STARTED under them. i despise them. I more than despise them. I want the Tories to fucking die and be buried in a noisome pit and then I will go the noisome pit and build the world’s biggest urinal on top of it. And THEN I will cover it in thirteen megatons of putrid Albanian taxi drivers’ manure and then I will dig the corpse of the Tories up again only so it can be brutally sodomised by a massive tumescent necrophiliac waxwork of 80s popster Shaking Stevens and then reburied at the abyssal bottom of the Mariana Trench
You may be an irritating old tosser but it's hard not to smile at some of your diatribes. Obviously I share your hopes for the future of the Tories but for different reasons.
But bear with me for a second. I genuinely think a lot of the middle classes want a sound money, one nation, small 'c' conservative centre-right party, and no one is offering that at the moment. If the Tories run rightward in pursuit of Reform many of those people will vote elsewhere imo. Where, I'm not sure - LDs maybe; Starmer Labour? probably not again; some new party or grouping that has yet to emerge? maybe.
Or give up completely? Like 40% of the population did last time..and 50% of Americans regularly do..🧐💩
Comments
So, I thought I'd Google "politicalbetting carnforth" for a laugh: Not quite the right laugh, but there we are.
You are right also about the changes wrought by social media. It has however made the site all the more valuable. There is no other on which I can rely for intelligent and authentic debate. You and I have had the privilege of meeting, and whilst we may not agree on every matter, we can depend on an absence bullshit. The same applies to most of those with whom we engage on here, whether we know them personally or not. This makes the site invaluable. Imposters get short shrift (like the laughable Lawson yesterday) and invariably sulk off to peddle their counterfeit wares elsewhere.
No, Starmer isn't going anywhere. And for what it's worth, I think that a World Cup under Trump is as likely to be as free and fair as an election under him. He wouldn't want a European side to win. The USA will do well, but simply aren't good enough to go the whole way. My money is on Argentina,
https://x.com/i/status/2020442339114659936
They'd certainly qualify for significant structural funding.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_for_Wales_Rail#Current_fleet
https://tfw.wales/sites/default/files/2025-11/TfW_Rail-Bus_network_map_ENGLISH-A3-V6_WEB.pdf
'The Liberal and National party leaders are getting the Coalition back together after announcing a reunification deal.
The Coalition split after three National senators broke away from shadow cabinet and voted against the government's hate groups bill, and were then fired from the front bench.
The deal to bring the parties back together includes allowing the fired senators to return to their previous roles in shadow cabinet. '
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-08/deal-done-to-bring-coalition-back-together/102760848
My wife and I quite like the slower pace of the heart of wales line
I'd take the chance on independence and an EU Referendum. There again I'm dead within two decades so I haven't so much to lose.
And for a couple of decades, there weren't many consequences. And whilst I hope that society has changed for the better, it's just as possible that the grosser abuse has just mutated into something else and the money/power bit of the offer has moved on but not really changed.
Once you start craving money or power, it's very hard to say "that's enough, thank you".
But bear with me for a second. I genuinely think a lot of the middle classes want a sound money, one nation, small 'c' conservative centre-right party, and no one is offering that at the moment. If the Tories run rightward in pursuit of Reform many of those people will vote elsewhere imo. Where, I'm not sure - LDs maybe; Starmer Labour? probably not again; some new party or grouping that has yet to emerge? maybe.
While I think it's extraordinarily unlikely, a large enough independence movement might accept the very real pain involved.
Unlike Brexit, there might be a positive endgame for those with enough patience.
But like Brexit, it would be a massive gamble, and no one is going to believe promises on the side of a bus ever again.
NEW THREAD
You'd need Welsh independence to achieve that and I can't see that happening by May ever.
https://x.com/samanthaasumadu/status/2020166902950052031?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
https://x.com/poll_checker/status/2018595238151913634