Could a Healey or Benn finally lead Labour? – politicalbetting.com
Could a Healey or Benn finally lead Labour? – politicalbetting.com
My strategy in this market has generally been to lay Andy Burnham and back long odds bets and I am adding John Healey to that portfolio. He could be the compromise candidate and this has all the hallmarks of being an excellent trading bet.
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Or maybe 3rd like Labour in Gorton and Denton.
Not a great look.
Edited extra bit: that might yet change. My suspicion is Starmer will stay, but we'll see.
The betting markets are just reflecting the belief Starmer goes before the next election.
As far as the markets are concerned, the Tories aren't at the races.
unchanged despite Mandelson, why would he? Rayner would also need 81 MPs to challenge Starmer and no sign of that at present.
Indeed unless Kemi improves the Tory voteshare and manages to see the Conservatives beat Labour on the NEV after the May local and devolved elections it will likely be her going not Starmer. Not least as Tory MPs have no mercy historically for leaders clearly failing to perform electorally unlike Labour MPs
We saw exactly the same happen 2019-24.
1) Chance that Starmer goes pre-election and is replaced by a Labour PM.
2) Chance that Badenoch is ousted and the Con leader changes.
3) Chance both stay in post and Badenoch does not get sufficient seats to be PM.
Right now 1) has a high chance (although personally I think he'll stay) of coming off, much higher than Badenoch's ousting, at the moment.
As for the Conservatives being behind Reform: yes. That's true of every other party in the polling as well.
No.
The DEI fanatics in the party will demand a woman or a person from a minority. Shabana Mahmood would be ideal but is too mainstream for the members.
I once held an open Zoom session through the night at some election or other. I forget which. About 15-20 turned up including HYUFD who was much younger than I imagined and Peter the Punter much slimmer.
FPT: outrage at British men over Epstein.
Daily Record has list of Brits linked to Epstein...
G Maxwell, Andrew MBW, Sarah F, Mandelson, Branson and Hawking. No UK politicians apart from Mandelson.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/entertainment/celebrity/british-celebrities-named-epstein-files-36682313
@fitalass
Naturally one regrets the loss of top class contributors but twas ever thus on PB. People come and go, and as they do so the character of the site changes like a slowly turning kaleidoscope. Like you, I could make a long list of people who I miss. I'd start with Benedict White, and that really is going back a long way to the time when the Tory Herd was a thing.
The site goes through its phases, but it has always been light on female contributors. This is no doubt connected to its betting origins. Although we miss the late Plato and the combative Snowflake I should say there are thankfully more women posters now than there have ever been. There are still not enough though, so may I entreat you personally to stick around. There is less misogyny and locker room humour than there used to be but there's still plenty of room for improvement, and I say that as a serial offender. The contributions of Cyclefree and your good self are a helpful corrective.
Sixty, eh? I hadn't realised you were one of the youngsters. Here's to many more years of Fit contributions.
If he hangs on until she gets her tax sorted, then she's in the box seat.
Interesting the ladies on the Trevor Phillips programme are incandescent that this is all about men acting as if they are the victims from Mandelson, to Blair, Brown, Starmer and in the US
They reminded viewers it is the female victims who are wronged not an international mans club
Ahem ...... as I have been saying.
"Phallic drift": The powerful tendency for public discussion of female issues to drift, inexorably, back to the male point of view.
If we really want serious change, instead of focusing on yet another process of what it means for the future career of this or that politician, perhaps the Gordon Browns of this world (especially the Gordon Brown who brought Mandelson back into government, who employed the McBride who decided to spin luridly sexual lies about Tory women) and other commentators could just this once - and for a change - stop giving us their views and learn to listen to women, really listen. They could accept that they have been wrong to ignore what women have been saying for YEARS. They could discuss - just for once - what should be done now for women rather than simply trotting out the same old empty cliches about strategies against VAWG while promulgating policies which make this more likely or do damn all about it. They might also think about what this case, the Pelicot one, the Joanne Young one, grooming gangs, the consistent murder rate of women by men, the language used to describe women if they so much as complain about any of this, and many many other examples say about male behaviour and society's tolerance of it.
Women don't need talking heads. What we want and need are politicians - male or female - who show some genuine interest in improving matters for women, have effective plans to make this happen and the courage and determination to see these through. We've been waiting long enough. And we are both unsurprised by any of this and utterly bloody furious.
Accepting he's a high competent politician, well respected and a good communicator.
Accepting too he's worked for and with Mandelson pre 2010.
Noticable the time and care and diligence he took to answer questions re recent contact with Mandelson
Clearly everyone is going to be very careful to be accurate.
It also struck me that this purge of information and data gathering may actually have the side effect of trawling up some potentially damaging detail on a completely different hot topic
A topic that has the propensity to deeply embarrass the main Opposition Party and Reform.
As a passionate pro Zionist, Friend of Israel and apologist of Netanyahu, Mandelson will no doubt have friends and confidants accross that Spectrum too and links to similar in Israel and the Trump administration
This investigation could snowball in to deep uncharted waters.
Has Starmers authority completely evaporated??
No way I could get to a drinks event nowadays but I'd be happy to go to a Zoom and provide my own drink!. I go to three or four a month (mostly u3a and u3acommunities ...... two different organisations) but they're not as good as face-to-face for casual chat.
The Telegraph does not agree with you
Kemi Badenoch: ‘Starmer knew Mandelson was still friends with Epstein. He chose not to care’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/07/kemi-badenoch-interview-starmer-mandelson-epstein/
Remember the expenses scandal?
Just helping you out here, Keir
Broadly speaking, the site has been anti-"Left" and anti-"Labour" for most of its existence. That doesn't translate to "it's all just Tories" and there was plenty of criticism of the Conservatives in Government though more often of the Mail-esque "why aren't you governing like Conservatives and cutting my taxes?" angle.
LDs have always been over represented, I'll cheerfully admit that.
The coming of social media has been the game changer - whereas individuals had to form their own arguments in posts, now they can run off to X or Bluesky or wherever and simply "cut and paste" that so instead of being a forum for political debate, it becomes a forum for political and news reportage and instant (over)reaction to events.
The betting aspect has never perhaps been as strong as Mike Smithson wanted and that's probably because the bookies have gotten wise to politics in a way they weren't 25-30 years ago. I won a lot of money in the 1997 election betting on LD seat gains which I could see and even the local independent bookie in Carshalton couldn't.
The market mentioned in the thread is unappealing unless you want a speculative wager. IF you think Starmer will walk away before the next election, you can play on the Labour possibles but if he chooses to tough it out, given three years is an eternity in politics, assuming one of the non-Labour options will succeed is probably wishful thinking and bookies love people who bet on sentiment (they coin it in every World Cup when patriotic punters play at unrealistic prices and lose their cash).
To be honest, I'd rather play on the all weather card at Lingfield.
https://x.com/BristOliver/status/2020440661493751918/photo/1
Its not about paedophilia and the sexual abuse and trafficking of girls and women, no, its actually 'Zionists' that are the issue. 🤮
He has to correct that record or go. Or SKS is demonstrably a lame duck
You and @fitalass have a real case, and I have an instinct that the 'mans club' in politics is about to see a women's movement even similar to the suffragettes rising up and saying enough
We see it on here with men pilling into Kemi Badenoch, one of only 2 high profile women in politics at present
Mandelson's outrage must lead to the end of the mans club both here and abroad
And silence is quite standard too, when you don't want to say anything.
If directly asked, he could obfuscate or say something one way or another, or try to change the topic - again all standard ways for politicians to respond.
Its not on the record, until he says something on the record.
First LOL of the day
SKS tells cabinet to back him or he will call a GE and immediately stand down as leader forcing Labour to agree a leader post haste and stumble into an election.
Nah, thats a Boris move
In the entire history of this site, name me any Tory leader ever that has not had men piling in to criticise them.
It goes with the territory.
He ticks a couple of boxes - reasonably photogenic, military background but it's a real leap in the dark to imagine him as PM. Could he move up the Cabinet? Yes, certainly and in time he could well be a serious contender.
It looks desperate - it could work and redefine politics for the next two decades or he could be Labour's Liz Truss, who knows?
My current view, and this won't surprise, is Starmer is going nowhere unless he wants to go somewhere. I've been disappointed by him but not surprised - it's not the timidity or the caution that's the problem but the lack of any policy which could be called "radical". Where is the response to child poverty, homelessness, addiction problems etc, etc? If a majority of 170 doesn't give you a mandate to do something, we might as well end elections.
It's not as though the "Right" (whatever that means) has anything to offer either which is the tragedy of all this.
It's left to Reform or the Greens or groups like the Newham Independents to make big policy pronouncements and promise the Sun, the Moon and the stars but you and I both know they are all fiscally incoherent in extremis but desperate, disillusioned people will once again sign up to the nonsense.
See his speech on not being able to do things.
Too early in the morning, didn't think about the fact that his name was Al, though its still a stupid term (and idea).
I read it as AI (Artificial Intelligence) and thought what preposterous nonsense is this?
The wider point is womans anger at the mans club in politics and power
See also Starmer and any other major party leader ever.
The scandal starts with the abuse of women*. Much of it about expressing power - being in the “in club”.
It further metastasised into the world of favours, money.
The final touch is the near complete unaccountability. Up til now.
*mostly. Epstein abused victims of both sexes, but the vast majority were women.
But it is also true that women are not heard in politics in the same way as men are, whether the woman is a leader, pundit or nerd on a political site. Politics is fascinating (partly) because it is about power, and men and women hold power in different (not so say unequal) ways.
Cyclefree's point about cliches and strategies about combatting violence against women and girls whilst promulgating a society that engenders exactly this violence rings particularly true for me.
Women are furious with this 'mans club' and they are on the warpath
She is an elected MP and the Leader of His Majesty's Opposition - she could be Prime Minister one day. What she says matters and has to be scrutinised as much as anyone else.
If I'm being honest, I detect a fraility among Conservatives like yourself - she is your party's last hope (arguably) and IF the party drops below Reform in terms of votes and seats at the next election, people will ask the same question as they asked of Liberals for decades in terms of relevance.
She is being lauded and elevated by Conservatives for that reason - it remains to be seen if the broader electorate see her in the terms you do.
But it'll be interesting to see if there's follow up on this story. I'd imagined Lammy to be 100% loyal, but perhaps not.
Police make arrest over collapse of Alastair Campbell son’s football betting fund
Rory Campbell launched the fund in 2017, vowing to beat the bookies with bets on games around Europe
Detectives probing the collapse of a betting syndicate led by spin doctor Alastair Campbell’s son have arrested a 37-year-old man in north London, the Metropolitan Police said.
Rory Campbell launched the fund in 2017, vowing to beat the bookies with bets on games around Europe, including in England’s Premier League and Spain’s La Liga.
But approximately 50 backers of the Oxford graduate and football analyst’s venture were left out of pocket in December - including his own parents, The Sun said.
Some were said to have lost up to £500,000 from their involvement in the failed fund.
One of the investors reportedly died before receiving his money back.
Campbell’s father and mother Fiona Millar were reported to be facing losses running into hundreds of thousands of pounds relating to the alleged £5 million Ponzi-style pyramid scheme.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/met-police-man-arrested-alastair-campbell-son-football-betting-fund-b1253057.html
https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/february-2026/dont-be-beastly-to-the-germans/
Anybody claims they can beat betting on football, unless its Tony Bloom or Matthew Benham they are lying. Even legendary sports bettors like Haralabos Voulgaris (who has also bought a football club from his gambling winnings) never bet on football.
Of course it is perfectly possible (and necessary) to be talking about both things.
That not being addressed suggests fatal weakness in the PM (to me anyway)
Quite partial to them myself.
We will see.
Or am I being unfair?
Her net favourability is now around or better than Farages generally but with more 'DKs' and therefore fewer of both positive 'favourable' and negative 'unfavourable'.
If she can get her positive 'favourable' above Farages that is when id expect Tory polling to approach Reforms (although the party lag her a bit)
A bit of “leverage” over some football stars (gambling is probably a good one) and I’m sure I could guarantee a good return.
I still find it quite amazing that the EPL have given Bloom and Benham special allowances to carry on their betting operations (although I think Benham isn't as active as he was).
The point I make is she should be given the time and not a new leadership crisis
Ed Is Tortoise Is PM?
This Account Makes You Happy
@FeelYouHappy
The fable of the rabbit and the tortoise has been tested in real life. 😂
https://x.com/FeelYouHappy/status/2020160372364451856?s=20
Kelly
@broadwaybabyto
·
5h
Jeff Bezos fired more than 300 people and didn’t even arrange for them to get safely home.
Staffers were abandoned in foreign countries and war zones and are having to crowd source to get home.
One of the richest men in the world left them behind.
https://x.com/broadwaybabyto/status/2020375224282189873?s=20
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/women-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2023/statistics-on-women-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2023-html#victims
Actually, far from society engendering violence against women and girls, I've noticed significant social taboos against it.
Of course any violence is wrong, except to defend oneself or others. And women's general physical weakness compared to men makes them much easier targets. But the notion that society somehow engenders it more than it does violence against men just doesn't stack up.
Rather than focusing unnecessarily and divisively on who the victims are, we should perhaps be concentrating on why (from memory) about 85% of the perpetrators of violent crime are male, and how to reduce that.
A Web hacker is a criminal
Not honest
Simeone who lies about a University offer that the University have no record of is a bare faced liar.
Not honest
This one was more stupid than most. The smart ones exit the business before the smash.
He will generate growth
He is likely to be First Minister but not sure how he moves the dial
40 points ahead Labour were.
An opinion poll on a random Sunday 18 months in is not a GE
MRPs are not crystal balls.
May will provide actual regional analysis and data to enjoy
It seems people only do it because if you can make it say year 3 or even 4, the rest of the industry go f##k me they must be amazing, pay them loads to join us.
I couldn't agree more with the rest of your post. It is abundantly clear, from the climate crisis through stagnant growth rates and ballooning debt, to the rise of the far right, that we cannot simply carry on with continuity Blairite-Cameroon centrism.
Labour had the perfect platform with their majority to unveil a bold, economically literate, socially just project of national renewal that would serve as a global beacon of how to respond to our current challenges without going fash. And it's not as if they don't have ideas waiting in the wings - think tanks like the New Economics Foundation have plenty to offer.
They blew it, which leaves voters with the twin peaks of insanity of Green or Reform to express their plaintive: "this can't go on." And globally, we are left with the twin peaks of insanity of fascist, authoritarian Trump or spying, authoritarian Xi.
This is why Starmer is a dud, not because of his Faustian pact with Mandelson in response to Trump.
No credible source