I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs as they would decide Cleverly would get more tactical votes to beat Reform than she would or Jenrick would make more inroads with Reform voters than she would (though the latter is less likely than the former)
I respect your insight into the party a lot and you have previously been on the money about Johnson. This time I think you're wrong, Cleverly benefits from name recognition and nothing more. He has zero personality and people who say they will vote for him (especially from non Tory voters) are simply projecting their hopes onto a blank slate just as people did with Kier Starmer who has become the least favoured PM in living memory.
If the MPs call a VONC in Kemi after May 26 then the party deserves to die.
Yes but if Jenrick replaced Kemi, then the Tories are effectively Reform 2 anyway and it is optimistic to expect Jenrick to overtake Farage as leader of the right. In my view Jenrick is Pepsi to Farage's Coca Cola and voters will always prefer the real thing if they like full fat rightwing populism than ex Remainer Jenrick.
As I said, if Farage loses the next GE and resigns then Jenrick has his chance to reunite the right if the Tories have also lost under Kemi or Cleverly but not before.
If the Tories are 3rd in May then Tory MPs would feel the party is heading for death anyway without a VONC. Kemi needs a first or second place in NEV for the Tories in the local and devolved elections and polls consistently over 20%+ to survive beyond the spring
Cleverly actually linked to Alaa Abd el-Fattah's twitter account when expressing his support. He'd be a disastrous choice as leader.
Three predictions for the state of play as of 31st December 2026.
1) Reform will not be consistently leading in the polls 2) Badenoch will lead the Tories 3) Starmer will lead Labour.
DYOR.
Tend to agree, although you have to get past May: hard to see the locals being good enough for both Badenoch and Starmer to survive the pressure of terrible results by year end.
Starmer at least has elections mainly in Labour leaning big cities and London and a likely small swing from the SNP in Scotland since 2021 to shore him up even if Wales sees Labour third.
Badenoch risks 4th place in Scotland and Wales on current polls and 3rd place in England and even if the Tories gain Barnet and Westminster that would not save her
The line up of councils makes next May potentially worse for Starmer than for Badenoch. The headline losses for Labour will be greater than for the Conservatives.
Labour will likely lose Birmingham, Bradford, Sunderland, Barnsley, Wakefield, Calderdale, Kirklees, and a string of London boroughs.
In terms of seats and councils won on the night though Labour will still almost certainly be ahead of the Tories and Labour will also likely beat the Tories in Scotland and Wales
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
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Three predictions for the state of play as of 31st December 2026.
1) Reform will not be consistently leading in the polls 2) Badenoch will lead the Tories 3) Starmer will lead Labour.
DYOR.
Tend to agree, although you have to get past May: hard to see the locals being good enough for both Badenoch and Starmer to survive the pressure of terrible results by year end.
Starmer at least has elections mainly in Labour leaning big cities and London and a likely small swing from the SNP in Scotland since 2021 to shore him up even if Wales sees Labour third.
Badenoch risks 4th place in Scotland and Wales on current polls and 3rd place in England and even if the Tories gain Barnet and Westminster that would not save her
If she is still moving forward by May, Badenoch should be OK for another year. Something like 24% by then (with Reform under 30%), and the spotlight will be on Starmer.
Yes 24% and second would be OK but Kemi getting that is a big if
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs as they would decide Cleverly would get more tactical votes to beat Reform than she would or Jenrick would make more inroads with Reform voters than she would (though the latter is less likely than the former)
I respect your insight into the party a lot and you have previously been on the money about Johnson. This time I think you're wrong, Cleverly benefits from name recognition and nothing more. He has zero personality and people who say they will vote for him (especially from non Tory voters) are simply projecting their hopes onto a blank slate just as people did with Kier Starmer who has become the least favoured PM in living memory.
If the MPs call a VONC in Kemi after May 26 then the party deserves to die.
Yes but if Jenrick replaced Kemi, then the Tories are effectively Reform 2 anyway and it is optimistic to expect Jenrick to overtake Farage as leader of the right. In my view Jenrick is Pepsi to Farage's Coca Cola and voters will always prefer the real thing if they like full fat rightwing populism than ex Remainer Jenrick.
As I said, if Farage loses the next GE and resigns then Jenrick has his chance to reunite the right if the Tories have also lost under Kemi or Cleverly but not before.
If the Tories are 3rd in May then Tory MPs would feel the party is heading for death anyway without a VONC. Kemi needs a first or second place in NEV for the Tories in the local and devolved elections and polls consistently over 20%+ to survive beyond the spring
Cleverly actually linked to Alaa Abd el-Fattah's twitter account when expressing his support. He'd be a disastrous choice as leader.
Not for winning Labour and LD and Green tactical votes to beat Reform which the Tories desperately need in the seats they hold unless they can make serious inroads into the Reform vote which Kemi has failed to really do
Why on earth would Cleverly be more likely to attract Labour, LD or Green tactical voters? He's a Brexiteer with a history of dodgy misogynistic comments.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
I hope you're right. Conservatism needs you to be right!
Most of the most rightwing or uber Boris loyalist Tory members I knew are now in Reform anyway. The current Tory membership is more moderate, hence Kemi beat Jenrick last year
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs as they would decide Cleverly would get more tactical votes to beat Reform than she would or Jenrick would make more inroads with Reform voters than she would (though the latter is less likely than the former)
I respect your insight into the party a lot and you have previously been on the money about Johnson. This time I think you're wrong, Cleverly benefits from name recognition and nothing more. He has zero personality and people who say they will vote for him (especially from non Tory voters) are simply projecting their hopes onto a blank slate just as people did with Kier Starmer who has become the least favoured PM in living memory.
If the MPs call a VONC in Kemi after May 26 then the party deserves to die.
Yes but if Jenrick replaced Kemi, then the Tories are effectively Reform 2 anyway and it is optimistic to expect Jenrick to overtake Farage as leader of the right. In my view Jenrick is Pepsi to Farage's Coca Cola and voters will always prefer the real thing if they like full fat rightwing populism than ex Remainer Jenrick.
As I said, if Farage loses the next GE and resigns then Jenrick has his chance to reunite the right if the Tories have also lost under Kemi or Cleverly but not before.
If the Tories are 3rd in May then Tory MPs would feel the party is heading for death anyway without a VONC. Kemi needs a first or second place in NEV for the Tories in the local and devolved elections and polls consistently over 20%+ to survive beyond the spring
Cleverly actually linked to Alaa Abd el-Fattah's twitter account when expressing his support. He'd be a disastrous choice as leader.
Not for winning Labour and LD and Green tactical votes to beat Reform which the Tories desperately need in the seats they hold unless they can make serious inroads into the Reform vote which Kemi has failed to really do
Why on earth would Cleverly be more likely to attract Labour, LD or Green tactical voters? He's a Brexiteer with a history of dodgy misogynistic comments.
As he is more moderate than Farage and more moderate than Jenrick or even Kemi, in a Tory v Reform marginal Cleverly led Tories would get tactical votes
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Jenrick and Kemi never held one
Yes, they had to fight for support based on their actual merits as candidates.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs as they would decide Cleverly would get more tactical votes to beat Reform than she would or Jenrick would make more inroads with Reform voters than she would (though the latter is less likely than the former)
I respect your insight into the party a lot and you have previously been on the money about Johnson. This time I think you're wrong, Cleverly benefits from name recognition and nothing more. He has zero personality and people who say they will vote for him (especially from non Tory voters) are simply projecting their hopes onto a blank slate just as people did with Kier Starmer who has become the least favoured PM in living memory.
If the MPs call a VONC in Kemi after May 26 then the party deserves to die.
Yes but if Jenrick replaced Kemi, then the Tories are effectively Reform 2 anyway and it is optimistic to expect Jenrick to overtake Farage as leader of the right. In my view Jenrick is Pepsi to Farage's Coca Cola and voters will always prefer the real thing if they like full fat rightwing populism than ex Remainer Jenrick.
As I said, if Farage loses the next GE and resigns then Jenrick has his chance to reunite the right if the Tories have also lost under Kemi or Cleverly but not before.
If the Tories are 3rd in May then Tory MPs would feel the party is heading for death anyway without a VONC. Kemi needs a first or second place in NEV for the Tories in the local and devolved elections and polls consistently over 20%+ to survive beyond the spring
Cleverly actually linked to Alaa Abd el-Fattah's twitter account when expressing his support. He'd be a disastrous choice as leader.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Badenoch as LOTO has a bigger game to play than Jenrick. I agree that he's doing a good job with his small interventions, but its easy to be good if you choose your ground. Farage is an exemplar of that. Jenrick really can improve, and he should (as I said) be busy learning lessons.
With regard to PMQs I think Badenoch is doing quite well. Again its the long game she has to play. Labour and Starmer are unlikely to disappear until 2029 (that'll be a satisfying pop!).
Badenoch has been MIA in the last two days as this latest scandal has unfolded. Count me unimpressed, even as someone that has time for her.
And what could she usefully say? The rabid news cycle needs aren't what should shape her comments.
Lots and lots.
That when she becomes PM, she will deport him. That she demands a full investigation into how this f up happened, regardless of which political party and officials it taints. That she’s turned a page on the wet liberalism of Tory yesteryear and promises that from now on, British diplomacy will only be used in the interests of British people, rather than extremists who have bent the system to their advantage in a way she will not tolerate.
That she’s keeping quiet on this only serves to remind me that I have no business voting for her party again, because it is still infected with anti British wet liberalism.
Badenoch absolutely must not follow Farage or his supporters as she needs a very separate identity
I expect her to give a measured response but Starmer is PM and the decision on this is his
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Jenrick and Kemi never held one
Yes, they had to fight for support based on their actual merits as candidates.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs as they would decide Cleverly would get more tactical votes to beat Reform than she would or Jenrick would make more inroads with Reform voters than she would (though the latter is less likely than the former)
I respect your insight into the party a lot and you have previously been on the money about Johnson. This time I think you're wrong, Cleverly benefits from name recognition and nothing more. He has zero personality and people who say they will vote for him (especially from non Tory voters) are simply projecting their hopes onto a blank slate just as people did with Kier Starmer who has become the least favoured PM in living memory.
If the MPs call a VONC in Kemi after May 26 then the party deserves to die.
Yes but if Jenrick replaced Kemi, then the Tories are effectively Reform 2 anyway and it is optimistic to expect Jenrick to overtake Farage as leader of the right. In my view Jenrick is Pepsi to Farage's Coca Cola and voters will always prefer the real thing if they like full fat rightwing populism than ex Remainer Jenrick.
As I said, if Farage loses the next GE and resigns then Jenrick has his chance to reunite the right if the Tories have also lost under Kemi or Cleverly but not before.
If the Tories are 3rd in May then Tory MPs would feel the party is heading for death anyway without a VONC. Kemi needs a first or second place in NEV for the Tories in the local and devolved elections and polls consistently over 20%+ to survive beyond the spring
Cleverly actually linked to Alaa Abd el-Fattah's twitter account when expressing his support. He'd be a disastrous choice as leader.
Cleverly is not the incumbent PM, no one cares what he says. The BBC are painting the picture that Starmer is supporting a terrorist and he has been called out by the Conservatives, particularly Jenrick.
Cleverly isn't in that picture.
It's Christmas, the public aren't following this story in any depth.
Three predictions for the state of play as of 31st December 2026.
1) Reform will not be consistently leading in the polls 2) Badenoch will lead the Tories 3) Starmer will lead Labour.
DYOR.
Tend to agree, although you have to get past May: hard to see the locals being good enough for both Badenoch and Starmer to survive the pressure of terrible results by year end.
Yes, all of that is right. Current reasoning (+ guesswork of course):
1) Reform have peaked; fewer top figures have joined than I would have expected which I feel is a slow acting problem for them. There is evidence that the Tories have turned an emotional corner and are on their way to be considered again.
2) I am much more confident of Badenoch's survival than Starmer. There is no replacement who would be all three of: better, and available and electable.
3) Starmer's survival depends on two key factors: his limpet and protean qualities which got him to PM in the first place and the intense difficulties of arranging a process and agreeing a succession with Labour's rules, the dimness of the backbenchers and the unrepresentative nature of the membership. The only available better well known candidate is Streeting, and neither the MPs nor the membership think so.
3) is key point, right, which goes against 2). Everything taken together, Badenoch must be more vulnerable.
This, as Sherlock Holmes never says, is where you have to apply guesswork. My take is this: Badenoch is much more vulnerable to process because of 'the letters'. But I think she is safe because of progress since the conference AND, if I am right that Reform has peaked, 2026 is not the year to rock the Tory boat.
Whereas Starmer's position taken on its own is much weaker - the entire universe thinks he should be replaced - but his own character plus the system makes it hard to achieve with a party as all over the place as Labour.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
The el-Fattah case shows the way that the human-rights/NGO industrial complex has completely captured the British state.
The ECHR/Human Rights Act is at the heart of this. The ideology is deep-rooted in the bureaucracy.
And we now have a Prime Minister who is part of this complex.
The big failure of the Conservative Government was to not repeal the laws and replace the bureaucrats on day 1.
Except when she was Foreign Secretary
Liz Truss has vowed to intervene to help free a British-Egyptian pro-democracy activist who has been on a hunger strike for 81 days after being detained in Egypt.
The Foreign Secretary told MPs she is seeking to hold a meeting with her Egyptian counterpart to raise the case of Alaa Abd El-Fattah.
Mr Abd El-Fattah has nearly a decade behind bars in Egypt and last December was sentenced to five years in prison after being accused of spreading false news.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs as they would decide Cleverly would get more tactical votes to beat Reform than she would or Jenrick would make more inroads with Reform voters than she would (though the latter is less likely than the former)
I respect your insight into the party a lot and you have previously been on the money about Johnson. This time I think you're wrong, Cleverly benefits from name recognition and nothing more. He has zero personality and people who say they will vote for him (especially from non Tory voters) are simply projecting their hopes onto a blank slate just as people did with Kier Starmer who has become the least favoured PM in living memory.
If the MPs call a VONC in Kemi after May 26 then the party deserves to die.
Yes but if Jenrick replaced Kemi, then the Tories are effectively Reform 2 anyway and it is optimistic to expect Jenrick to overtake Farage as leader of the right. In my view Jenrick is Pepsi to Farage's Coca Cola and voters will always prefer the real thing if they like full fat rightwing populism than ex Remainer Jenrick.
As I said, if Farage loses the next GE and resigns then Jenrick has his chance to reunite the right if the Tories have also lost under Kemi or Cleverly but not before.
If the Tories are 3rd in May then Tory MPs would feel the party is heading for death anyway without a VONC. Kemi needs a first or second place in NEV for the Tories in the local and devolved elections and polls consistently over 20%+ to survive beyond the spring
Cleverly actually linked to Alaa Abd el-Fattah's twitter account when expressing his support. He'd be a disastrous choice as leader.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
In terms of declared MPs only 17% nominated Boris, the rest is speculation even if Brady said Boris would have met the threshold ultimately
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs as they would decide Cleverly would get more tactical votes to beat Reform than she would or Jenrick would make more inroads with Reform voters than she would (though the latter is less likely than the former)
I respect your insight into the party a lot and you have previously been on the money about Johnson. This time I think you're wrong, Cleverly benefits from name recognition and nothing more. He has zero personality and people who say they will vote for him (especially from non Tory voters) are simply projecting their hopes onto a blank slate just as people did with Kier Starmer who has become the least favoured PM in living memory.
If the MPs call a VONC in Kemi after May 26 then the party deserves to die.
Yes but if Jenrick replaced Kemi, then the Tories are effectively Reform 2 anyway and it is optimistic to expect Jenrick to overtake Farage as leader of the right. In my view Jenrick is Pepsi to Farage's Coca Cola and voters will always prefer the real thing if they like full fat rightwing populism than ex Remainer Jenrick.
As I said, if Farage loses the next GE and resigns then Jenrick has his chance to reunite the right if the Tories have also lost under Kemi or Cleverly but not before.
If the Tories are 3rd in May then Tory MPs would feel the party is heading for death anyway without a VONC. Kemi needs a first or second place in NEV for the Tories in the local and devolved elections and polls consistently over 20%+ to survive beyond the spring
Cleverly actually linked to Alaa Abd el-Fattah's twitter account when expressing his support. He'd be a disastrous choice as leader.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
In terms of declared MPs only 17% nominated Boris, the rest is speculation even if Brady said Boris would have met the threshold ultimately
You are confusing two very different things - the number who had announced they were backing Massive in public, and the number who actually had nominated him to the 1922 committee.
Brady confirmed that the latter was 102, which more than met the threshold.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
I had it triple sourced from Tory MPs that Boris Johnson had the nominations.
I was told it was reasons 2 to 5 why he didn't stand again.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
In terms of declared MPs only 17% nominated Boris, the rest is speculation even if Brady said Boris would have met the threshold ultimately
You are confusing two very different things - the number who had announced they were backing Massive in public, and the number who actually had nominated him to the 1922 committee.
Brady confirmed that the latter was 102, which more than met the threshold.
He’s just not British, is he? Alaa Abd El-Fattah. That’s what it comes down to.
The state owes its citizens basic consular support, even if they’ve unsavoury views, but this sticks in the craw (understatement) because he’s not one of us.
We need to work out the mechanism by which the political activists in the Whitehall machine contrived to award him citizenship in 2021 when he was in an Egyptian prison, because his grandmother gave birth here while studying. This has nothing to do with Britain or the British government. He hates us.
Clearly a broken system. Dismantle it.
He is only British in the administrative sense: A passport, handed out like confetti, I don’t care about. No one thinks he is British, including him.
Strip it.
If we’re not firm on this, then the broad understanding that we always offer consular support to our own, regardless of views, will fall apart. We should do the same to those whom do not integrate, contribute and commit heinous crimes.
The powers exist. They sit with the Home Secretary. Use them.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
In terms of declared MPs only 17% nominated Boris, the rest is speculation even if Brady said Boris would have met the threshold ultimately
You are confusing two very different things - the number who had announced they were backing Massive in public, and the number who actually had nominated him to the 1922 committee.
Brady confirmed that the latter was 102, which more than met the threshold.
You do not have to 'declare' you are nominating somebody to actually nominate them. So you are simply not correct on this point. Johnson could have stood in the membership ballot, and could have won, but withdrew.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
In terms of declared MPs only 17% nominated Boris, the rest is speculation even if Brady said Boris would have met the threshold ultimately
You are confusing two very different things - the number who had announced they were backing Massive in public, and the number who actually had nominated him to the 1922 committee.
Brady confirmed that the latter was 102, which more than met the threshold.
You do not have to 'declare' you are nominating somebody to actually nominate them. So you are simply not correct on this point. Johnson could have stood in the membership ballot, and could have won, but withdrew.
You cannot prove that, you are just going on what Brady said, 102 MPs did not formally declare for Johnson.
I don't dispute Boris would have won the members ballot had he got there and Sunak would never have become PM. Had Boris done so 100 Tory MPs would likely have saved their seats and Reform would never have got 14% and now be leading the polls
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs as they would decide Cleverly would get more tactical votes to beat Reform than she would or Jenrick would make more inroads with Reform voters than she would (though the latter is less likely than the former)
I respect your insight into the party a lot and you have previously been on the money about Johnson. This time I think you're wrong, Cleverly benefits from name recognition and nothing more. He has zero personality and people who say they will vote for him (especially from non Tory voters) are simply projecting their hopes onto a blank slate just as people did with Kier Starmer who has become the least favoured PM in living memory.
If the MPs call a VONC in Kemi after May 26 then the party deserves to die.
Yes but if Jenrick replaced Kemi, then the Tories are effectively Reform 2 anyway and it is optimistic to expect Jenrick to overtake Farage as leader of the right. In my view Jenrick is Pepsi to Farage's Coca Cola and voters will always prefer the real thing if they like full fat rightwing populism than ex Remainer Jenrick.
As I said, if Farage loses the next GE and resigns then Jenrick has his chance to reunite the right if the Tories have also lost under Kemi or Cleverly but not before.
If the Tories are 3rd in May then Tory MPs would feel the party is heading for death anyway without a VONC. Kemi needs a first or second place in NEV for the Tories in the local and devolved elections and polls consistently over 20%+ to survive beyond the spring
Cleverly actually linked to Alaa Abd el-Fattah's twitter account when expressing his support. He'd be a disastrous choice as leader.
Cleverly is not the incumbent PM, no one cares what he says. The BBC are painting the picture that Starmer is supporting a terrorist and he has been called out by the Conservatives, particularly Jenrick.
Cleverly isn't in that picture.
It's Christmas, the public aren't following this story in any depth.
Tory MPs might be different though.
What gets my goat is a non-story like this gets picked up by X, Jenrick and right wing media and politicians like Starmer and Cleverly are further damaged.
In the last 3 months Nigel Farage has been implicated in a friendship with a paid Russian shill (Nathan Gill), a dodgy as f*** house purchase in Clacton and a major racism scandal from his days at Dulwich College yet X, Jenrick and the right wing media including the BBC have demonstrated no interest whatsoever. This is why you and your party need to hold this bastard to account, rather than, in your party's case, treating him as a political ally.
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
In terms of declared MPs only 17% nominated Boris, the rest is speculation even if Brady said Boris would have met the threshold ultimately
You are confusing two very different things - the number who had announced they were backing Massive in public, and the number who actually had nominated him to the 1922 committee.
Brady confirmed that the latter was 102, which more than met the threshold.
You do not have to 'declare' you are nominating somebody to actually nominate them. So you are simply not correct on this point. Johnson could have stood in the membership ballot, and could have won, but withdrew.
You cannot prove that, you are just going on what Brady said, 102 MPs did not formally declare for Johnson.
If they nominated him, they declared for him. What more do you want? A note signed with their own blood?
Brady says that Johnson had the nominations, which was also generally believed at the time. Brady would know, you don't. His statement is proof unless you evidence to the contrary, which a counting of public declarations isn't.
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
He also has the credibility problem of completely fluffing the contest last time. Surely he's now yesterday's man, and some other MP will fancy taking on Jenrick?
The el-Fattah case shows the way that the human-rights/NGO industrial complex has completely captured the British state.
The ECHR/Human Rights Act is at the heart of this. The ideology is deep-rooted in the bureaucracy.
And we now have a Prime Minister who is part of this complex.
The big failure of the Conservative Government was to not repeal the laws and replace the bureaucrats on day 1.
Except when she was Foreign Secretary
Liz Truss has vowed to intervene to help free a British-Egyptian pro-democracy activist who has been on a hunger strike for 81 days after being detained in Egypt.
The Foreign Secretary told MPs she is seeking to hold a meeting with her Egyptian counterpart to raise the case of Alaa Abd El-Fattah.
Mr Abd El-Fattah has nearly a decade behind bars in Egypt and last December was sentenced to five years in prison after being accused of spreading false news.
Though in fairness it looks like for some reason there was a mahoosive fuss about the little turd from the likes of Dame Judi Dench and Mark Ruffalo, who petitioned her for 'not doing enough' and she had to respond - to a question from Layla Moran in the chamber.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
He also has the credibility problem of completely fluffing the contest last time. Surely he's now yesterday's man, and some other MP will fancy taking on Jenrick?
No. Cleverly still has the MPs who backed him last year and likely would get most of the Kemi backers too if Jenrick succeeded in ousting Kemi after a VONC next year after poor Tory results in the local elections.
Most Cleverly backers went to Kemi after he was knocked out in the final round when she beat Jenrick with members
Well, if he genuinely believes that he's madder than we thought. Zelensky may, but given Putin could end it all literally tonight by withdrawing he's clearly not desirous of ending the war.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
The el-Fattah case shows the way that the human-rights/NGO industrial complex has completely captured the British state.
The ECHR/Human Rights Act is at the heart of this. The ideology is deep-rooted in the bureaucracy.
And we now have a Prime Minister who is part of this complex.
The big failure of the Conservative Government was to not repeal the laws and replace the bureaucrats on day 1.
Except when she was Foreign Secretary
Liz Truss has vowed to intervene to help free a British-Egyptian pro-democracy activist who has been on a hunger strike for 81 days after being detained in Egypt.
The Foreign Secretary told MPs she is seeking to hold a meeting with her Egyptian counterpart to raise the case of Alaa Abd El-Fattah.
Mr Abd El-Fattah has nearly a decade behind bars in Egypt and last December was sentenced to five years in prison after being accused of spreading false news.
Though in fairness it looks like for some reason there was a mahoosive fuss about the little turd from the likes of Dame Judi Dench and Mark Ruffalo, who petitioned her for 'not doing enough' and she had to respond - to a question from Layla Moran in the chamber.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
In terms of declared MPs only 17% nominated Boris, the rest is speculation even if Brady said Boris would have met the threshold ultimately
You are confusing two very different things - the number who had announced they were backing Massive in public, and the number who actually had nominated him to the 1922 committee.
Brady confirmed that the latter was 102, which more than met the threshold.
You do not have to 'declare' you are nominating somebody to actually nominate them. So you are simply not correct on this point. Johnson could have stood in the membership ballot, and could have won, but withdrew.
You cannot prove that, you are just going on what Brady said, 102 MPs did not formally declare for Johnson.
I don't dispute Boris would have won the members ballot had he got there and Sunak would never have become PM. Had Boris done so 100 Tory MPs would likely have saved their seats and Reform would never have got 14% and now be leading the polls
You have no way of knowing what would have happened if Johnson had remained, though he did and that is why he didn't
You have a total blind spot when it comes to Johnson
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Brady afterwards confirmed Johnson had also met the threshold, but withdrew as there was no way he could form a cabinet.
Boris would likely have beaten Sunak with Tory members in 2022 but since Sunak became Tory leader as I said below many Boris loyalists have left the party and joined Reform
Two points:
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
In terms of declared MPs only 17% nominated Boris, the rest is speculation even if Brady said Boris would have met the threshold ultimately
You are confusing two very different things - the number who had announced they were backing Massive in public, and the number who actually had nominated him to the 1922 committee.
Brady confirmed that the latter was 102, which more than met the threshold.
You do not have to 'declare' you are nominating somebody to actually nominate them. So you are simply not correct on this point. Johnson could have stood in the membership ballot, and could have won, but withdrew.
You cannot prove that, you are just going on what Brady said, 102 MPs did not formally declare for Johnson.
I don't dispute Boris would have won the members ballot had he got there and Sunak would never have become PM. Had Boris done so 100 Tory MPs would likely have saved their seats and Reform would never have got 14% and now be leading the polls
You have no way of knowing what would have happened if Johnson had remained, though he did and that is why he didn't
You have a total blind spot when it comes to Johnson
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
If Jenrick became leader the big gamble would be he could win enough Reform voters back to the Tories to offset the lack of Labour and LD tactical votes he would get for Tory candidates
Well, if he genuinely believes that he's madder than we thought. Zelensky may, but given Putin could end it all literally tonight by withdrawing he's clearly not desirous of ending the war.
Putin wants the war [in reality the current phase of it] to end with Ukraine's surrender. He gets to decide what constitutes a surrender. I doubt he's thought any further ahead than that.
The big question is whether Putin's idea of surrender is acceptable to Ukraine even in its current exhausted state, or if it necessarily continues to fight. That in turn depends on whether it can create a viable and independent country out of what's left of its territory, I suspect.
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
Agree. She is also the Cummings candidate apparently - the 'spare' if and when Kemi bites it. Though Kemi has actually hit her stride lately.
The Tories just need to keep being sensible, keep offering fleshed out policies, and keep appealing to strivers. They don't need to ape Reform, or go on some stupid mission to get Lib Dem votes.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
Hardly, Katie Lam backed Jenrick last year. The only other stop Jenrick candidate would be Mel Stride
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
Hardly, Katie Lam backed Jenrick last year. The only other stop Jenrick candidate would be Mel Stride
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
'She became a special adviser to Boris Johnson in 2019 after meeting Andrew Griffith at the Conservative Party conference.[4] Working as Johnson's deputy Chief of Staff[6] she became known for her work ethic and regularly slept at her desk during the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] She left the Johnson administration in early 2021 after an incident where Carrie Johnson's dog, Dilyn was about to urinate on Lam's handbag and Lam had to intervene.[9' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Lam
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
Hardly, Katie Lam backed Jenrick last year. The only other stop Jenrick candidate would be Mel Stride
As a pretty new and fresh face whatever she did last time will be utterly irrelevant for the next time around. Mel Stride is a complete non-entity at a time when Labour have been shitting up the economy, he's proven himself as unfit to lead the party into an election that will likely be existential.
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
Gabriel Pogrund is Whitehall editor for the Sunday Times.
Rather sadly, appointees by the party leaders to the House of Lords need not have any merit at all. The appointments committee is an effort to give spurious respectability to what is an arbitrary partisan process.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
Hardly, Katie Lam backed Jenrick last year. The only other stop Jenrick candidate would be Mel Stride
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
Gabriel Pogrund is Whitehall editor for the Sunday Times.
Rather sadly, appointees by the party leaders to the House of Lords need not have any merit at all. The appointments committee is an effort to give spurious respectability to what is an arbitrary partisan process.
Even if she claimed to have a PhD from Oxford signed by Socrates himself, she would still be more honest than Amanda Spielman.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
I sense dodgy journo use of stats here. The denominator is number of cars on the road, not mileage or fatality rate per collision.
Isn’t that covered in the third paragraph?
With petrol models outnumbering hybrid vehicles by almost 20 to one on UK roads, this suggests that hybrids are involved in approximately three times as many fatal crashes.
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
Gabriel Pogrund is Whitehall editor for the Sunday Times.
Rather sadly, appointees by the party leaders to the House of Lords need not have any merit at all. The appointments committee is an effort to give spurious respectability to what is an arbitrary partisan process.
Even if she claimed to have a PhD from Oxford signed by Socrates himself, she would still be more honest than Amanda Spielman.
Recently I learned that Baroness Spielman read law at the University of Cambridge, I may have to revise my opinions about her.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
The whole saga of Alaa Abd El-Fattah shows why Reform are the deserved favourites to win the next election. Both main parties have long been more concerned with projecting the right vibes about "British values" than engaging with reality.
The reality is that, by law, he was entitled to British citizenship. Once he had it it was the duty of the foreign office to advocate for his release.
The only misstep here was the government trumpeting his release
That's not true. It would only have been automatic if it had been his father rather than his mother who was born in the UK. Otherwise you have to apply and it's a legal requirement to attend a ceremony and swear allegience to the monarch and pledge loyalty to the UK.
Yes you have to apply/fill out paperwork but there is no discretion if the criteria are met
I know someone personally who met all the criteria and then had their application refused for not attending the citizenship ceremony, so in practice there was discretion given that he was in an Egyptian prison at the time.
How very convenient you know someone personally who exactly mirrors the case in discussion and gives the result that you want. Link?
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
Hardly, Katie Lam backed Jenrick last year. The only other stop Jenrick candidate would be Mel Stride
As a pretty new and fresh face whatever she did last time will be utterly irrelevant for the next time around. Mel Stride is a complete non-entity at a time when Labour have been shitting up the economy, he's proven himself as unfit to lead the party into an election that will likely be existential.
Stride is now the second most popular Shadow Cabinet member with Tory members, overtaking even Kemi on the last ConHome survey
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
Gabriel Pogrund is Whitehall editor for the Sunday Times.
Rather sadly, appointees by the party leaders to the House of Lords need not have any merit at all. The appointments committee is an effort to give spurious respectability to what is an arbitrary partisan process.
Even if she claimed to have a PhD from Oxford signed by Socrates himself, she would still be more honest than Amanda Spielman.
Recently I learned that Baroness Spielman read law at the University of Cambridge, I may have to revise my opinions about her.
She read Law and English Literature.
I have met just one English Literature graduate from Cambridge who was even literate, never mind intelligent or honest.
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
Gabriel Pogrund is Whitehall editor for the Sunday Times.
Rather sadly, appointees by the party leaders to the House of Lords need not have any merit at all. The appointments committee is an effort to give spurious respectability to what is an arbitrary partisan process.
Even if she claimed to have a PhD from Oxford signed by Socrates himself, she would still be more honest than Amanda Spielman.
Recently I learned that Baroness Spielman read law at the University of Cambridge, I may have to revise my opinions about her.
She read Law and English Literature.
I have met just one English Literature graduate from Cambridge who was even literate, never mind intelligent or honest.
Richard Burgon read English lit at Cambridge, just saying.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
And I'm saying the polling "evidence" is irrelevant. As I said, if the Cleverly faction are going to pitch on winning LD and Green tactical votes they might as well give in now.
My guess is that if Kemi falls we will end up with a final two that doesn't contain either Cleverly or Jenrick as the MPs try to move on from the past and MPs tainted by the Boris and Truss era.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
I would vote Reform to get rid of the Tory. Whoever is leading the Conservatives.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
In November 2022 he raised a question in HOC about Abd and mentioned he was in prison because of a post he had made on social media. Surely at that point he checked the post to see what the prison sentence was about. ?
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
I would vote Reform to get rid of the Tory. Whoever is leading the Conservatives.
I don't think he really understands that for left wing voters they will see this as their chance to extinguish the Tories once and for all consequences be damned.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
I would vote Reform to get rid of the Tory. Whoever is leading the Conservatives.
Would you vote for Jonathan Gullis, standing for Reform, over the Tory?
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
'She became a special adviser to Boris Johnson in 2019 after meeting Andrew Griffith at the Conservative Party conference.[4] Working as Johnson's deputy Chief of Staff[6] she became known for her work ethic and regularly slept at her desk during the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] She left the Johnson administration in early 2021 after an incident where Carrie Johnson's dog, Dilyn was about to urinate on Lam's handbag and Lam had to intervene.[9' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Lam
I used to work with someone who regularly slept at his desk. During working hours.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
I would vote Reform to get rid of the Tory. Whoever is leading the Conservatives.
I won't get that choice. I'd vote reform to get rid of the double dipping Labour MP in my constituency though.
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
I would vote Reform to get rid of the Tory. Whoever is leading the Conservatives.
Would you vote for Jonathan Gullis, standing for Reform, over the Tory?
Anyone seeking to undermine the Conservatives is doing something right.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
'She became a special adviser to Boris Johnson in 2019 after meeting Andrew Griffith at the Conservative Party conference.[4] Working as Johnson's deputy Chief of Staff[6] she became known for her work ethic and regularly slept at her desk during the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] She left the Johnson administration in early 2021 after an incident where Carrie Johnson's dog, Dilyn was about to urinate on Lam's handbag and Lam had to intervene.[9' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Lam
Looks like there is no deal, as Russia is demanding things Ukraine won't be able to sign up to still, namely the total occupation of the five oblasts and no ceasefire, no referendums and no DMZ.
If there is a deal from here it will be one imposed by Trump based on an addled assessment of how much money he can screw out of everyone and will on past form last about a week.
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
I sense dodgy journo use of stats here. The denominator is number of cars on the road, not mileage or fatality rate per collision.
Isn’t that covered in the third paragraph?
With petrol models outnumbering hybrid vehicles by almost 20 to one on UK roads, this suggests that hybrids are involved in approximately three times as many fatal crashes.
No - that's exactly the problem with this analysis. If hybrid vehicles are doing, on average, 3x as many miless as petrol vehicles, then that would explain the difference. That could actually be the reason - hybrids are over-represented as taxis and fleet vehicles. Given this is the Times, rather than the Mail, they do actually make that point - but even the Times can't resist a bit of clickbait sadly.
Looks like there is no deal, as Russia is demanding things Ukraine won't be able to sign up to still, namely the total occupation of the five oblasts and no ceasefire, no referendums and no DMZ.
If there is a deal from here it will be one imposed by Trump based on an addled assessment of how much money he can screw out of everyone and will on past form last about a week.
So, questions.
1. Is this acknowledged as the end of the road for these peace negotiations, or does Trump insist that everyone goes through the motions? 2. If Trump does accept it's the end, who does he blame? 3. What does he do about it? 4. Does the US Congress decide to act at last? 5. What does Europe do?
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
I sense dodgy journo use of stats here. The denominator is number of cars on the road, not mileage or fatality rate per collision.
Isn’t that covered in the third paragraph?
With petrol models outnumbering hybrid vehicles by almost 20 to one on UK roads, this suggests that hybrids are involved in approximately three times as many fatal crashes.
No - that's exactly the problem with this analysis. If hybrid vehicles are doing, on average, 3x as many miless as petrol vehicles, then that would explain the difference. That could actually be the reason - hybrids are over-represented as taxis and fleet vehicles. Given this is the Times, rather than the Mail, they do actually make that point - but even the Times can't resist a bit of clickbait sadly.
Do hire cars have a higher accident rate (because people are driving an unfamiliar vehicle)?
You probably want to look at it per collision, rather than by mileage, unless you think there's a weird reason why a hybrid vehicle might be more likely to be involved in a collision in the first place.
And then ideally you want to look at collisions in urban areas separately from rural roads and from major trunk roads.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
I would vote Reform to get rid of the Tory. Whoever is leading the Conservatives.
I don't think he really understands that for left wing voters they will see this as their chance to extinguish the Tories once and for all consequences be damned.
Don't mistake left-wing intercenine conflict for broader nihilism. The left might not vote Conservative, but that doesn't mean they would vote for Farage to spite a party that, in this scenario, is already irrelevant.
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
Don't rule out Cleverly, Tory MPs will coalesce around a stop Jenrick candidate, that may well be Cleverly.
I think other fresher faces will end up becoming that candidate. Katie Lam seems the most likely at the moment if she chooses to run. Whatever she may or may not have done as a SpAd taking orders from ministers is much less relevant than actual decisions taken by former ministers. They have actual records they will need to disown or defend, she has a few position papers that those ministers made her write even if she didn't personally agree with them.
Hardly, Katie Lam backed Jenrick last year. The only other stop Jenrick candidate would be Mel Stride
As a pretty new and fresh face whatever she did last time will be utterly irrelevant for the next time around. Mel Stride is a complete non-entity at a time when Labour have been shitting up the economy, he's proven himself as unfit to lead the party into an election that will likely be existential.
Stride is now the second most popular Shadow Cabinet member with Tory members, overtaking even Kemi on the last ConHome survey
Looks like there is no deal, as Russia is demanding things Ukraine won't be able to sign up to still, namely the total occupation of the five oblasts and no ceasefire, no referendums and no DMZ.
If there is a deal from here it will be one imposed by Trump based on an addled assessment of how much money he can screw out of everyone and will on past form last about a week.
So, questions.
1. Is this acknowledged as the end of the road for these peace negotiations, or does Trump insist that everyone goes through the motions? 2. If Trump does accept it's the end, who does he blame? 3. What does he do about it? 4. Does the US Congress decide to act at last? 5. What does Europe do?
I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.
Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent
I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.
Polls are notoriously bad at predicting what people are likely to do in the future. Polling suggested that if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony, many Republicans would refuse to vote for him. As it turned out, they did so overwhelmingly.
I think it unlikely that in practice, many left wing voters would cross over, to support the Conservatives.
I also think that Cleverly is utterly devoid of ideas and charisma, he will basically be black Kier Starmer and in the face of a charismatic and conviction driven politician like Nige he will get smashed to pieces, the Tories would be lucky to finish in double figures IMO. No amount of tactical voting will save him against Nige and like you I do not believe that Labour voters will turn out for a Tory party whoever the leader is unless they have a compelling story and policies. Cleverly absolutely won't have that, he will be another blank sheet of paper running a Ming vase strategy hoping that Labour are unpopular enough for him to inherit enough votes to win. It won't work.
He would have more appeal to tactical Labour and LD voters than Kemi or Jenrick though. Kemi also needs to start winning back voters lost to Reform more than she has to if she is to avoid a VONC after the devolved and local elections next May. Certainly unless the Tories at least beat Labour in the NEV next May she will likely face a VONC from Tory MPs.
Why on earth would the conservative party want another leader at a time when Badenoch is gaining in the pollls no matter May 26
There is 3 years plus to the next GE, and frankly Jenrick or Cleverly would not move the dial despite your repetituve posting of your views on this
Jenrick would. If it is the Conservative name that you like he is the man to take down Farage. If it is the party of Ted Heath or even Mrs Thatcher you might be disappointed.
Of course the Heath Tories were the party of Enoch Powell and Terry Dicks was a big fan of Thatcher, and who can forget Peter Griffiths and the Smethwick campaign in 1964. Come to think of it scratch paragraph one, Jenrick should dovetail quite nicely into leading the Conservative Party.
P.S. RIP Hugh Morris, Glamorgan's finest.
He might in the short term. He though should be busy soaking up all the lessons that Kemi is fairly successfully learning. She started off quite poorly but very sensibly she's just playing herself in (NB England cricketers). She's now looking the part to some extent.
Jenrick would be flash, bang, IDS.
I despise Jenrick, but he steals Farage's clothes for the Tories. Jenrick's comms are brilliant.
Badenoch remains poor. She is up against a poor performer in Starmer who is on the ropes. At PMQs he wins question one and two and by question four she is shouty and floundering. Is that good enough?
Jenrick doesn't have the numbers at present. Even if Kemi lost a VONC Cleverly would have the MPs who backed him last year, plus Kemi backing Tory MPs who remained loyal to her would likely switch en masse to Cleverly to stop Jenrick too.
So Cleverly might become leader via Howard 2005 or Sunak autumn 2022 coronation or even if it went to members a Conhome members poll after the 2024 Tory conference had Cleverly narrowly ahead of Jenrick even if Badenoch beat both.
Jenick's best bet is for Kemi to go and Cleverly to succeed her but lose the next GE, with Farage also losing the next GE and both resigning as party leaders. Labour would have won, even if only most seats in a hung parliament, due to the split on the right in large part and Jenrick would then be the last option left for the Tories and to reunite the right
Cleverly may win with the MPs, but the top two MPs go to the membership. How do they stop Jenrick getting into the top two? Cleverly couldn’t count last time.
Not necessarily, the 1922 cttee elected Howard unopposed in 2003 and allowed Sunak to be elected with 55% of Tory MPs nominating him in October 2022 without having to face second placed Johnson in a membership ballot (where Boris would likely still have beaten him).
They didn't "allow" Sunak to be elected. Mordaunt didn't get enough nominations and Johnson dropped out. Would Jenrick fail to get enough noms and/or drop out?
Likewise, no one stood against Howard.
At least 28% of Tory MPs needed to nominate a candidate and only Sunak met that threshold.
As I said, a Tory members poll last year also had Cleverly beating Jenrick anyway
Cleverly no longer has the credibility bonus of having recently held one of the great offices of state.
Indeed his record will work against him in any leadership election. He'll very quickly be labelled as the empty headed fool who jumped on the woke liberal bandwagon to give an antisemite and terrorist supporter British citizenship. While the issue may not rate for voters at large it will be enough to snuff out any leadership ambitions with MPs and Tory members same as it being woke or giving into wokeness killed off Mordaunt's leadership bids.
You are forgetting again that while Farage leads Reform the Tories need Labour, LD and Green tactical votes for Tory MPs to hold their seats against Reform.
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
Any Tory MP who thinks that they can win Lib Dem or Green votes is delusional. The election will literally be framed as vote Tory get Nige. There is no route to getting left wing tactical votes.
We're three years out from the election, campaigning hasn't even begun yet. The polling on this subject is completely irrelevant.
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
They are even more anti Reform than anti Tory. Cleverly has ruled out any deal with Reform and unless and until Jenrick has clear polling evidence he will win back Reform voters to the Tories, the likelihood is if Kemi went it would be Cleverly replacing her
You keep repeating this mantra but real life experience should tell you that those mythical tactical votes won't materialise. A few local candidates may get a boost based on their profile but the idea that any percentage of LD or Green votes turning out for the Tories is delusional. Any Tory MP that suggests such a strategy should be deselected let alone barred from the leadership.
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
I have just given you the polling evidence it could, if a third of LD and a quarter of Labour voters tactically vote for their Tory MP to beat Reform that would save that Tory MPs seat he would otherwise lose. They wouldn't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tory party though.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
And I'm saying the polling "evidence" is irrelevant. As I said, if the Cleverly faction are going to pitch on winning LD and Green tactical votes they might as well give in now.
My guess is that if Kemi falls we will end up with a final two that doesn't contain either Cleverly or Jenrick as the MPs try to move on from the past and MPs tainted by the Boris and Truss era.
At least they have a pitch, Cleverly can win over tactical voters from Labour and the LDs. Jenrick needs poll evidence he can win back voters from Reform.
If Kemi goes it will be either Cleverly or Jenrick who gets it, there isn't time for anyone else to get the profile to replace her otherwise and Cleverly and Jenrick already got 2/3 of Tory MPs behind them last year.
Fatal crash risk ‘three times higher’ in hybrid cars than petrol
Experts believe the higher death rates could be explained by hybrid cars’ combination of petrol engines and electric motors, which can be more prone to fires
I sense dodgy journo use of stats here. The denominator is number of cars on the road, not mileage or fatality rate per collision.
Isn’t that covered in the third paragraph?
With petrol models outnumbering hybrid vehicles by almost 20 to one on UK roads, this suggests that hybrids are involved in approximately three times as many fatal crashes.
No - that's exactly the problem with this analysis. If hybrid vehicles are doing, on average, 3x as many miless as petrol vehicles, then that would explain the difference. That could actually be the reason - hybrids are over-represented as taxis and fleet vehicles. Given this is the Times, rather than the Mail, they do actually make that point - but even the Times can't resist a bit of clickbait sadly.
Do hire cars have a higher accident rate (because people are driving an unfamiliar vehicle)?
You probably want to look at it per collision, rather than by mileage, unless you think there's a weird reason why a hybrid vehicle might be more likely to be involved in a collision in the first place.
And then ideally you want to look at collisions in urban areas separately from rural roads and from major trunk roads.
Exactly. I'm sure hybrids are more likely to involved in fatal collisions with pedestrians and cyclists on that basis too.
(You often get a facebook whopper comparing cyclist:pedestrian collisions with those with drivers, forgetting (or ignoring) the fact that cyclists are in much closer proximity with pedestrians that the average driver. That will be the case for taxi drivers too.)
Comments
Oh, sorry, did you mean Cleverly?
I expect her to give a measured response but Starmer is PM and the decision on this is his
Tory MPs might be different though.
Whereas Starmer's position taken on its own is much weaker - the entire universe thinks he should be replaced - but his own character plus the system makes it hard to achieve with a party as all over the place as Labour.
1) It doesn't matter if you win the members if you can't form a cabinet;
2) You said 'only Sunak met the threshold.' My reply was to note that wasn't correct.
The el-Fattah case shows the way that the human-rights/NGO industrial complex has completely captured the British state.
The ECHR/Human Rights Act is at the heart of this. The ideology is deep-rooted in the bureaucracy.
And we now have a Prime Minister who is part of this complex.
The big failure of the Conservative Government was to not repeal the laws and replace the bureaucrats on day 1.
Except when she was Foreign Secretary
Liz Truss has vowed to intervene to help free a British-Egyptian pro-democracy activist who has been on a hunger strike for 81 days after being detained in Egypt.
The Foreign Secretary told MPs she is seeking to hold a meeting with her Egyptian counterpart to raise the case of Alaa Abd El-Fattah.
Mr Abd El-Fattah has nearly a decade behind bars in Egypt and last December was sentenced to five years in prison after being accused of spreading false news.
https://x.com/robpowellnews/status/2005326086327185558
Brady confirmed that the latter was 102, which more than met the threshold.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63503932
I was told it was reasons 2 to 5 why he didn't stand again.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/11/06/what-boris-johnson-pulling-out-really-means/
https://x.com/jackmrankin/status/2005245382737965277?s=46
He’s just not British, is he? Alaa Abd El-Fattah. That’s what it comes down to.
The state owes its citizens basic consular support, even if they’ve unsavoury views, but this sticks in the craw (understatement) because he’s not one of us.
We need to work out the mechanism by which the political activists in the Whitehall machine contrived to award him citizenship in 2021 when he was in an Egyptian prison, because his grandmother gave birth here while studying. This has nothing to do with Britain or the British government. He hates us.
Clearly a broken system. Dismantle it.
He is only British in the administrative sense: A passport, handed out like confetti, I don’t care about. No one thinks he is British, including him.
Strip it.
If we’re not firm on this, then the broad understanding that we always offer consular support to our own, regardless of views, will fall apart. We should do the same to those whom do not integrate, contribute and commit heinous crimes.
The powers exist. They sit with the Home Secretary. Use them.
I don't dispute Boris would have won the members ballot had he got there and Sunak would never have become PM. Had Boris done so 100 Tory MPs would likely have saved their seats and Reform would never have got 14% and now be leading the polls
In the last 3 months Nigel Farage has been implicated in a friendship with a paid Russian shill (Nathan Gill), a dodgy as f*** house purchase in Clacton and a major racism scandal from his days at Dulwich College yet X, Jenrick and the right wing media including the BBC have demonstrated no interest whatsoever. This is why you and your party need to hold this bastard to account, rather than, in your party's case, treating him as a political ally.
"Gabriel Pogrund
@Gabriel_Pogrund
Keir Starmer’s latest nominee for the House of Lords falsely claimed to have a PhD
Ann Limb is chair of the King’s flagship charity
But her CV as an educationalist contains falsehoods she has repeated in writing and speeches"
https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/2002464178385338673
Gabriel Pogrund is Whitehall editor for the Sunday Times.
'A reporter asked Trump if the recent Russian attacks on Kyiv showed that Putin wasn't serious about peace.
"No he's very serious," Trump replied.
"I believe Ukraine has made some very strong attacks also - and I don't say that negatively," he said. "You probably have to."
Trump added: "The people of Ukraine want it to end, and the people of Russia want it to end, the two leaders want it to end."'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c7732j0jvnnt
Brady says that Johnson had the nominations, which was also generally believed at the time. Brady would know, you don't. His statement is proof unless you evidence to the contrary, which a counting of public declarations isn't.
Though in fairness it looks like for some reason there was a mahoosive fuss about the little turd from the likes of Dame Judi Dench and Mark Ruffalo, who petitioned her for 'not doing enough' and she had to respond - to a question from Layla Moran in the chamber.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/alaa-abdel-fattah-liz-truss-egypt-jail-b2108627.html#comments-area
Most Cleverly backers went to Kemi after he was knocked out in the final round when she beat Jenrick with members
Those who hated Cleverly's tweet will be voting for Farage largely anyway
You have a total blind spot when it comes to Johnson
Anyhoo, I am glad I drive a full electric.
The data suggests fully electric vehicles have the lowest fatality rate at one death for every 55,000 of these cars on the road.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/44098-most-tory-members-say-liz-truss-should-resign
Yougov has 33% of LD voters, 22% of Labour voters and even 11% of Greens willing to tactically vote Tory and for the existing Tory MP if only the Tories or Reform could win in their constituency. That would be higher if Cleverly led the Tories, lower if Jenrick led the Tories
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51713-is-tactical-voting-more-of-a-threat-or-opportunity-for-reform-uk
If Jenrick became leader the big gamble would be he could win enough Reform voters back to the Tories to offset the lack of Labour and LD tactical votes he would get for Tory candidates
The big question is whether Putin's idea of surrender is acceptable to Ukraine even in its current exhausted state, or if it necessarily continues to fight. That in turn depends on whether it can create a viable and independent country out of what's left of its territory, I suspect.
#justsayin'
'So why don't these sober drivers get off the road and let us drunks drive in safety?'
The Tories just need to keep being sensible, keep offering fleshed out policies, and keep appealing to strivers. They don't need to ape Reform, or go on some stupid mission to get Lib Dem votes.
Looking a bit shit for your lot then isn't it?
I mean just look on here at the various Lib Dem activists who post, they're far more anti-Tory than even Labour ones. The idea of someone who supports the Green party turning around and voting for any kind of Tory is laughable when the whole campaign from the left is literally going to be vote Tory get Nige. There will be pictures of whoever the Tory leader is in Nige's pocket all over social media. No, any candidate that tries to win on the basis of getting leftist tactical votes is delusional.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Lam
If that's the Cleverly faction's big idea then I don't think he'll even enter the race because he'll get laughed out of the room for nominations.
To counter that Jenrick has to start showing polling data he would win back significant numbers of ex Tory voters from Reform, otherwise Cleverly would replace Kemi if she lost a VONC
With petrol models outnumbering hybrid vehicles by almost 20 to one on UK roads, this suggests that hybrids are involved in approximately three times as many fatal crashes.
https://conservativehome.com/2025/11/25/shadow-cabinet-league-table-badenoch-bumped-into-third-place/
Range anxiety lasted about a fortnight.
I have met just one English Literature graduate from Cambridge who was even literate, never mind intelligent or honest.
My guess is that if Kemi falls we will end up with a final two that doesn't contain either Cleverly or Jenrick as the MPs try to move on from the past and MPs tainted by the Boris and Truss era.
Sir Keir Starmer was unaware of the “abhorrent” views expressed by an alleged Egyptian extremist before he welcomed him to Britain.
Read more here ⤵️
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/…
https://x.com/telegraph/status/2005338205160112392?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Starmer said it was “a top priority for my government since we came to office”.
And he’s now claiming that in 17 months of it being a ‘top priority’, nobody even bothered to find out Abd El-Fattah’s views?
His lies just aren’t credible.
https://x.com/olivercooper/status/2005339711121006932?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
In November 2022 he raised a question in HOC about Abd and mentioned he was in prison because of a post he had made on social media. Surely at that point he checked the post to see what the prison sentence was about. ?
https://x.com/littlejeff5/status/2005360867567861781?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
If there is a deal from here it will be one imposed by Trump based on an addled assessment of how much money he can screw out of everyone and will on past form last about a week.
The greatest Chagos betrayal is still to come
The Government has scheduled the Third Reading and final vote just TWO days after the Report Stage on 7 January
1. Is this acknowledged as the end of the road for these peace negotiations, or does Trump insist that everyone goes through the motions?
2. If Trump does accept it's the end, who does he blame?
3. What does he do about it?
4. Does the US Congress decide to act at last?
5. What does Europe do?
Lots of decisions for lots of people.
You probably want to look at it per collision, rather than by mileage, unless you think there's a weird reason why a hybrid vehicle might be more likely to be involved in a collision in the first place.
And then ideally you want to look at collisions in urban areas separately from rural roads and from major trunk roads.
If Kemi goes it will be either Cleverly or Jenrick who gets it, there isn't time for anyone else to get the profile to replace her otherwise and Cleverly and Jenrick already got 2/3 of Tory MPs behind them last year.
(You often get a facebook whopper comparing cyclist:pedestrian collisions with those with drivers, forgetting (or ignoring) the fact that cyclists are in much closer proximity with pedestrians that the average driver. That will be the case for taxi drivers too.)