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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Miller expenses case has touched a raw nerve that neither she nor Cameron anticipated
In 2009 the Telegraph classified EdM as one of "The Expenses' Saints" http://t.co/9CQ46kY2Xr Most frugal in cabinet pic.twitter.com/kulVAnvKV2
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FPT. - Financier Posts: 1,480
April 8
For Topic 1, the scores on the doors are:
To the questions: "Should remain in current Role" and "Should resign from their role and be replaced"
Maria Miller: 9 remain and 63 resign
Nick Clegg: 23/52
Michael Gove: 27/47
Ed Milliband: 33/46
Vince Cable: 30/40
Ed Balls: 35/40
IDS: 38/37
George Osborn: 42/37
David Cameron: 51/32
Theresa May: 43/30
Miller has to go; the question is timing. I can well understand Cameron not wanting to be pushed into this by the press. Memories of Back to Basics runs deep, where the press simply went on one hunting mission after another because they could and because it tied in to a lazy narrative (and not one that Major really launched in the first place). If you give them one scalp, they'll be back for more.
In addition, if Cameron does want to reshuffle the cabinet before the election, it'll be a complex job in a coalition and something to be negotiated with Clegg if it's to involve Lib Dems or current Lib Dem portfolios. Being bounced into it after losing a man (or woman) overboard is not the ideal launchpad. On the other hand, if he goes in for the minimalist reshuffle that's followed previous resignations, it may well mean having someone in post for a matter of weeks only or an existing minister doubling up, which is as clear a flag-up for the full reshuffle as possible and will put everyone in the government on red alert.
I fully expect Miller to go. My assumption is that Cameron would prefer to sack her in his own time, probably shortly after the May elections when the current hoo-haa has died down. It's probably about 50/50 whether she can last that long, dependent on what else there is to come out and how soon events throw the spotlight elsewhere.
Of course they didn't. £90,000 is small change to them. They have not got the slighest clue how this looks to normal people.
Ladbrokes - Basingstoke (Con maj, Maria Miller MP = 13,176)
Con 1/20
Lab 16/1
UKIP 20/1
LD 20/1
Result 2010:
Con (Maria Miller) 25,590
LD 12,414
Lab 10,327
UKIP 2,076
oth 247
Reasoning: take a chunk of CON and add them to the UKIP pile. Take a chunk of LD and add them to the LAB pile. Result = a lot tighter than 2010. So that CON 1/20 price looks short.
Maria Miller was asked to provide evidence about how much time she spent at each home
Despite having four au pairs, she claimed none of them were contactable
Mrs Miller said 'they were not family friends'
Because of this, Mrs Miller cannot back up her story
Basingstoke is located sufficiently distant from London to be immune from the contagion of metropolitan socialism. It is an old market town which was only lightly industrialised in the nineteenth century. Its most famous son is a retailer: Thomas Burberry.
A quick read of Basingstoke's Wiki entry will give a flavour of the town:
the Basingstoke Sports Centre which has a subterranean swimming pool, sauna, jacuzzi and steam room. Above ground there is a gym, aerobics studios, squash courts and main hall. There is also a playden for young children."
"{It] is also home to multiple theatrical organisations: The Anvil, the Haymarket (in the former Corn Exchange), Fluid Motion Theatre Company and Proteus Theatre."
"[It] has a wide diversity for musical groups. Ranging from brass bands to symphony orchestras."
"there is a leisure park featuring the Aquadrome swimming pool, which opened in May 2002. The park also includes an ice rink, bowling alley, Bingo club and a ten screen cinema, as well as a restaurant and fast food outlets. The leisure park is also home to the Milestones Museum which contains a network of streets and buildings based on the history of Hampshire."
Basingstoke is stereotypically Southern blue: a place where Hyacinth Bucket would aspire to live. Full of "decent" employers who don't require you to get your hands dirty (De La Rue, Sun Life Financial of Canada, The Automobile Association, ST Ericsson, GAME, Motorola, Barracuda Networks, Eli Lilly and Company, BNP PARIBAS Lease Group UK, Sony Professional Solutions (Europe) and TaylorMade-Adidas Golf Company).
It is a place too self-content, hard working and prosperous to be Lib Dem; too unsulllied and unneedy to be Labour; too self-conscious and worthily occupied to be UKIP.
The town could take a million Maria Miller resignations and still remain Conservative.
However, in 1997, Labour came within 2400 of winning (polling 22.3k), and in 2001, they reduced the majority further, to 880, albeit with a drop in vote to 19.6k. It is not entirely safe, though it would take something very much out of the ordinary to shift it from the blue column. Are these expenses problems enough? Not sure.
The other point is that the Lib Dems clearly do have some sort of presence, finishing second last time. While they might be expected to drop back into third or even fourth, their vote probably isn't quite as easy to squeeze as in some other constituencies. A by-election would be a very open contest; a general election should still have Tories as favourite - though not 1/20 if Miller remains candidate. That said, I think Shadsy's priced his over-rounds well and I'm not sure there's much value in either UKIP or Lab.
How was your penance at the tomb of St. Thomas a Becket? Profitable?
Equally so, did you close your deal yesterday?
There are many things more important than the fifty five floaters of North Warwickshire.
Deal closed on Monday, so working hard atm to keep the Southern economy in a state of house price inflation. As for the NW 55, when Mr Cameron's failed to win a majority for the second time he may look at the seat and wonder what he should have done differently.
Personally I wouldn't have sent George to the constituency to bask in the glow of expanding manufacturing, he doesn't know his FMEAs from his ISIRs.
I saw Miller's aide getting monstered by Kay Burley on Sky News yesterday. When you're getting bettered by her, its time to throw in the towel.
Miller quits.
How totally unexpected.
LOL
Some wise fellow did tip her at 14/1 as next out of the cabinet in February.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/02/17/time-to-back-maria-miller-as-next-out-of-the-cabinet/
And congratulations.
As to George and Nuneaton. did you know that the filming location for Hyacinth Bucket's home was Binley Woods, Warwickshire (which Wiki claims is "east of Coventry"). Though the series had the address of her abode renamed to "Waney Edge, Blossom Avenue, Fuddleton", which variously was close to Southampton and Oxford, it does all go to show that there is but the thickness of a fine emery paper between the inhabitants of Basingstoke and Nuneaton.
It is just the jobs that differ. And George in a sharp blue boiler suit is delivering those to North Warwickshire weekly. Stop knocking him.
Add a couple of noughts to the 55 and you will get the 2015 Tory majority, Mr. Brooke.
How many of his own toes has Cameron blown off with his display of loyalty to her? Two, three, four? When your own backbenchers, your press and your councillors all say she should go and you say she should stay, it's your judgement they're questioning, not hers.
Not that Cameron is arrogant and out of touch even with his own party. Oh no.....
As for the replacement: who'd want that hot potato with the media in such a mood? if I was an MP I wouldn't go near press regulation with a ten-foot bargepole.
It was noticeable yesterday at Business Questions that Angela Eagle, Shadow Leader of the House, got a uncomfortable ride for suggesting that Miller had "got away with it" especially from fellow Labour MP Sir Kevin Barron, Chairman of Standards, who reminded Eagle and the HoC that its decision was an all party one, supported by lay members and was "impartial and non partisan"
See Barron from around 14 minutes :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/house-of-commons-26938969
The first thing I heard on the radio this morning was Andrew Lansley saying Maria Miller was staying. The second was that she had gone.
Itsmotherswork @itsmotherswork 8h
Surely asking Lansley to defend Miller on #newsnight is a clear sign that the Tories are intent on her public evisceration?
Andrew Cooper @AndrewzCooper 8h
Crikey, did No 10 toss Lansley to Paxo knowing that he'd crash and burn and take Miller with him? Or are they just incompetent? #newsnight
ThesecretErnMalley @loveandgarbage 8h
Andrew Lansley there. Effectively shutting down the Maria Miller story by being so inept his own future in Cabinet will be questioned,
*chortle*
Not as a sun shield surely ?
When the expenses scandal started Cameron did some good speeches and Cameron directs where he showed a better awareness than most of how this was perceived but since coming into government he has lost the plot. I still don't think Westminster as a whole gets how angry people were about the expenses issue and how easy it is to relight the flame.
Cameron would have been much better taking a stand and deciding that failing to cooperate with the inquiry was incompatible with cabinet status. He gets no credit from her resigning at this point.
VAT at 20% on newspaper sales; a forensic examination into tax evasion and off-shoring of profits by the proprietors; nationalisation of Channel 4 and the BBC; and, press regulation subject to a newly formalised Court of Public Opinion.
David Cameron hopes Maria Miller will return to the front bench "in due course". Is he completely barking mad? #toxicwiththevoters @LBC
Icarus - "Pulling Curtains Here"
#MARIAMILLER has resigned. Thank you to the 183,000 + ppl who signed the petition. http://www.change.org/mariamillerexpenses … Now we need expenses reform!
Still, good to see that Miller has gone, though she should step down as an MP too.
Not even Oscar Pistorius can upstage their show of hypocrisy.
As for the seven veils being discarded, I forsee a Balls room dance up first.
For those formally of the Tory hinterlands who went purple it just reinforces their decision. For "real" Tories it reinforces their dislike of their leader as they head ibro Yerp elections they wI'll almost certainly have a bad result in.
For Cameron and those placemen around him, this must all be truly baffling. Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, uncomfortable in his own party, contemptuous of Parliament and so aloof that basic political instinct on such issues doesn't seem to work the way it does for anyone else.
I lose not a wink of sleep over either the Scottish Referendum or the 2015 GE.
13 No comment. 2 for resignation and 1 to stay.
"The Standards Committtee, quite rightly and fairly in my view, concluded that Maria Miller's ACA claims made in accordance with the rules and guidance of the relevant period."
That would be YOUR inept spin Avery. Any other hot tips apart from Lansley to be PM?
*titters*
At least CCHQ has learned not to let Lansley near it again.
It is this astonishing arrogance which is the trademark of Conservative decline. It is 35 years since 1979, but they still haven't learnt their lesson.
All he had to do was sack Miller and he would have looked strong and principled.
Instead the Conservatives have become associated with sleeze when it was Labour MPs who were the worst for it.
What do the hell do they teach on that PPE course for anyone to blunder like Cameron has done on this issue.
Nor should anybody care about her replacement.
LOL
Is he f£%&ing insane? Is the dearth of talented, decent, trustworthy politicians such that there's no one else Cameron can turn to?
As for John Mann, he needs to be careful, criticising an MP for not being seen in their constituency. There's a few on his side who could do a bit more work on that front.
You must learn to distinguish between acorns and buckeye nuts.
That latter will give you an upset stomach.
Your coincidental presence on PB would be too odorous to contemplate.
Tooting 5/1
Westminster North 5/1
Wakefield 6/1
Newcastle under Lyme 8/1
Hammersmith 10/1
I would also recommend a Conservative hold in Sherwood at 9/2
EdM for one has rarely be seen in his own constituency, which is part of the reason his expenses were so low.
I suspect the latter is the factor Shadsy struggles with, and it is the one all punters (including OGH) need to study carefully.
Isn't the issue with demographic change in Westminster North that many of the locals are steadily being replaced by immigrants who aren't eligible to vote.
Now whether the Labour voters on the council estates are being replaced faster than the Conservative voters in the posh houses I don't know.
Another issue in Westminster North is that the Conservatives wont have the vile voter repelling Joanne Cash as their candidate next time.
Gove is struggling to find his words like Miller trying to find her ministerial car. #justnotthere
You were shedding the Normanby Hall curse yesterday in your comments on the ERM and Black Wednesday.
Now you are returning to roots.
No Prime Minister will sack a Minister after an 'acquittal' by a 'quasi judicial' body. Not Blair, Not Brown, Not Major, Not Thatcher.
Prime Ministers must respect due process and uphold the rule of law.
In the circumstances of a popular witch hunt whipped up by a bloodthirsty press (and there have been many of these), then the procedure PMs follow is to wait until the hunted Minister resigns.
It says no more or less about Cameron's competence than similar precedents do about his predecessors.
At least Thatcher had the courage to refuse John Nott's resignation after the Falklands invasion. Individual responsibility plays a bigger role in the Miller case precluding this option, but Cameron has stated his hope that Miller will return to the front benches "in due course". Somewhat of the same principle shown by Maggie.
Gove says he would not criticise press over the Miller saga.
*chuckles*
Or he could have told her to resign straight away and make the speech herself.
Admit it Avery your boy Cameron has fcked up on the issue.
David Cameron needs a line to discomfit Ed Miliband. Ed Miliband's personal history is a gift in such circumstances.