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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Miller expenses case has touched a raw nerve that neith

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2014
    Countdown to the bleating changing from 'Cameron defended Maria Miller because he's got a woman problem' to 'Cameron shows he's got a woman problem by replacing her with a man'....
  • Sajid Javid represents Bromsgrove. Replaced Julie Kirkbride. Why did she resign again?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786


    Most of those softly sticking the knife in weren't Labour MPs but Tories

    Yes - because the bulk of dispirited Tory MP's who until recently thought the next election was lost now think after the Budget and the economic stats that the next election is far from lost.

    That is quite an interesting element of the Miller affair....
    I think it would've been even worse if the Tories were in pre-budget, energy price induced despair mode, as they'd have seen it as taking them beyond the threshold of likely recovery, from an 8-9 Lab lead to a 11 or 12 point one.

    Noticeable that most ire was directed at Miller, rather than Dave for his rather poorly worded 'leave it at that' and refusal to cut her adrift.

    Unlikely, Labour haven't enjoyed 8/9 leads regularly since last year and are trending slowly downwards. There is little sign yet of a collapse in Tory support from Miller. We are into the last couple of hurdles and the elbow beckons.
    Miller will wear it, Cam wouldn't sack her as that was a rather obvious Leveson shaped press trap.
    Expect more 'stories' this weekend
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sajid Javid replaces Miller

    Sir Roderick

    Do you know who gets his former post of Financial Secretary to the Treasury?

    Hopefully that sexy little bombshell Liz Truss
    If that's not, ya know, sexist n ting
    You have to be careful with sexism on PB, dyedwoolie.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    "UKIP meeting 8pm tonight in Old Basing Village Hall, Basingstoke. Our PPC will be unveiled and Nigel Farage will be the keynote speaker!"

    twitter.com/oflynndirector/status/453819651215355904

    2013 local election results, Basingstoke and Deane
    http://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/browse/council-and-democracy/councillors-democracy-and-elections/elections/results/2013/default.htm

    Only 6 of the Basingstoke/Deane CC divisions are in the Parliamentary seat , the 5 Basingstoke divisions and Loddon .
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sajid Javid replaces Miller

    Sir Roderick

    Do you know who gets his former post of Financial Secretary to the Treasury?

    Hopefully that sexy little bombshell Liz Truss
    If that's not, ya know, sexist n ting
    You have to be careful with sexism on PB, dyedwoolie.
    Yes. I'm always careful. I'm also incorrigible
  • Channel 4 News on Twitter pointing out Cameron's 'problem with women'. How long did that take? 15 minutes?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    surbiton said:

    I bet Cam is crapping himself at facing 'an expense saint', who leads a party of troughers and has five former comrades who gone done bird for fiddling.
    Go on expenses Ed, bury yourself.

    If Miliband plays his cards well at PMQ’s, he can certainly make life a little uncomfortable for Cameron. However, if he goes off on another of his shouty sanctimonious rants, Cameron will clobber him with five Labour MP Expense cheats jailed for fraud on his watch and gently remind the opposition leader of the present incumbent Hazel Blears, waving a cheque for £15,000 after she was caught out avoiding CGT - having flipped her secondary home status amongst her varied property portfolio.
    Hazel Blears actually did not do anything which would have resulted in CGT. Even the IR clarified that. She volunteered the sum because it was "percieved" [ quite correctly in my opinion ] that she had made capital gains as the general public would understand it.

    Cheers for the clarification - I'm sure the little munchkin could afford it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    RodCrosby said:

    Sajid Javid replaces Miller

    Well, the bookies, punters and journalists got that one wrong!
    There was a market ?

    Paddy hasn't even settled existing Cabinet member out yet !
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Nicky Morgan (who?) appointed Commissar for Political Correctness...
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited April 2014
    AveryLP said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sajid Javid replaces Miller

    Sir Roderick

    Do you know who gets his former post of Financial Secretary to the Treasury?


    Nicky Morgan, who will also be Minister for Women and attend Cabinet in that role.

    Surprised at Javid getting this job, I thought it would be Anna Sourby but I guess they are trying to round him out in preparation for his march to the top.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JonathanD said:

    AveryLP said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sajid Javid replaces Miller

    Sir Roderick

    Do you know who gets his former post of Financial Secretary to the Treasury?


    Nicky Morgan, who will also be Minister for Women and attend Cabinet in that role.

    Surprised at Javid getting this job, I thought it would be Anna Sourby but I guess they are trying to round him out in preparation for his march to the top.
    Good choice.

    From the little I have seen of her, I have liked her.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    Those dastardly kipper fifth columnists at conservativehome seem less than impressed by the comedy of Cammie and Miller in most of the comments.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/04/miller-was-right-to-resign.html
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Iain ‏@Iain_33 5m

    Nicky Morgan is only Minister for Women, Sajid Javid keeps the equalities part of the brief
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Mick_Pork said:

    Iain ‏@Iain_33 5m

    Nicky Morgan is only Minister for Women, Sajid Javid keeps the equalities part of the brief

    Um, surely that's discriminatory!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This might be worth a thread:

    http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/12-months-to-go-historical-polls-suggest-a-knife-edge-election-result/

    The hypothesised result is very close to what I'd unconsciously been imagining.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    It'll be interesting to see who benefits from this sorry saga. I suspect this just reinforces the contempt that many people have for politicians in general, so no real change expected.

    Ed may just go on quota politics - as long as he's updated his script to take account of the resignation (and there's no guarantee of that).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2014
    On a rather more substantial matter, Socrates posted a link last night to a summary of the IEA Brexit winner's (Iain Mansfield) entry. The full winning document is a bit hard to find on the IEA website, it's here:

    http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Brexit Entry 170_final_bio_web.pdf

    I must say, on a quick read it looks like a really well-thought out paper. Mansfield quite rightly IMO rejects the idea of remaining in the EEA (that's always seemed to me to be worst of both worlds), relying instead on a combination of EFTA membership and a specific trade agreement with the EU. He seems to be very realistic about the issues and trade-offs, but one area which I think needs further investigation is exactly what we could realistically negotiate in terms of financial services - that's clearly a key concern for Britain.

    The paper can also be read as a guide to the priorities for renegotation if we do remain formally in the EU, as it lists very clearly the pros and cons of the various aspects of the relationship.

    All in all, a top piece of work - the best summary of what we should aim at, if we leave the EU, that I've seen.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RodCrosby said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Iain ‏@Iain_33 5m

    Nicky Morgan is only Minister for Women, Sajid Javid keeps the equalities part of the brief

    Um, surely that's discriminatory!
    It's definitely fissiparious.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014

    "UKIP meeting 8pm tonight in Old Basing Village Hall, Basingstoke. Our PPC will be unveiled and Nigel Farage will be the keynote speaker!"

    twitter.com/oflynndirector/status/453819651215355904

    2013 local election results, Basingstoke and Deane
    http://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/browse/council-and-democracy/councillors-democracy-and-elections/elections/results/2013/default.htm

    Only 6 of the Basingstoke/Deane CC divisions are in the Parliamentary seat , the 5 Basingstoke divisions and Loddon .
    Thanks for that. Totting up, I get:

    Con: 6,960 (31%)
    Lab: 5,968 (27.5%)
    LD: 2,898 (13%)
    UKIP: 5,856 (27%)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/basingstoke/
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Iain ‏@Iain_33 5m

    Nicky Morgan is only Minister for Women, Sajid Javid keeps the equalities part of the brief

    Um, surely that's discriminatory!
    Well Morgan looks to be a 'big society' Cameroon while Sayid is an out and out Osbrownite. So it seems fair enough. ;)
  • New Thread
  • marktheowlmarktheowl Posts: 169


    Most of those softly sticking the knife in weren't Labour MPs but Tories

    Yes - because the bulk of dispirited Tory MP's who until recently thought the next election was lost now think after the Budget and the economic stats that the next election is far from lost.

    That is quite an interesting element of the Miller affair....
    I think it would've been even worse if the Tories were in pre-budget, energy price induced despair mode, as they'd have seen it as taking them beyond the threshold of likely recovery, from an 8-9 Lab lead to a 11 or 12 point one.

    Noticeable that most ire was directed at Miller, rather than Dave for his rather poorly worded 'leave it at that' and refusal to cut her adrift.

    Unlikely, Labour haven't enjoyed 8/9 leads regularly since last year and are trending slowly downwards. There is little sign yet of a collapse in Tory support from Miller. We are into the last couple of hurdles and the elbow beckons.
    Miller will wear it, Cam wouldn't sack her as that was a rather obvious Leveson shaped press trap.
    Expect more 'stories' this weekend
    I know they're trending slowly downwards - I was saying that the reaction to Miller among Tory MPs would've been even worse if Labour's poll lead was where it was 6 months ago, as those who've rather sensationally claimed that it could cost them the election may have been right - a story as badly handled as this could've hardened a poll lead capable of being winnowed away into a winning one, and it certainly would've induced more panic and direct fire at Dave. As it is we've seen more mild upset and annoyance from his backbenchers.

    Don't know if Miller will have an effect on the polls - at worst a blip of 1 or 2 points until everyone moves on - the longer term damage may be that it makes it more difficult to get non-voters and Kippers to vote Con- something that the Tories need to be in anyway confident of victory.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    antifrank said:

    This might be worth a thread:

    http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/12-months-to-go-historical-polls-suggest-a-knife-edge-election-result/

    The hypothesised result is very close to what I'd unconsciously been imagining.

    The convergence of the models continues...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Sajid Javid, is a very interesting choice. He was the subject of an article in the Speccie a couple of weeks back:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/why-sajid-javid-could-end-up-at-the-top-of-the-tory-tree/

    and is apparently widely regarded. Giving him an outing as head of a minor department but with Cabinet rank will give him an opportunity to show his talent and hone his political skills.

    Javid's back-story looks good (son of a Bangladeshi immigrant, comprehensive school, first of family to Uni, Exeter to Oxbridge), chucked up a very well-paying job to enter politics for good sounding reasons), except for one thing. That well-paying job was a banker! Some of our leftie friends are going to tie themselves in knots trying to align their prejudices with this fellow.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Icarus said:

    Miller resigns - and I got a job yesterday!!

    Congratulations, Icarus. I hope it all goes well for you.
This discussion has been closed.