Countdown to the bleating changing from 'Cameron defended Maria Miller because he's got a woman problem' to 'Cameron shows he's got a woman problem by replacing her with a man'....
Most of those softly sticking the knife in weren't Labour MPs but Tories
Yes - because the bulk of dispirited Tory MP's who until recently thought the next election was lost now think after the Budget and the economic stats that the next election is far from lost.
That is quite an interesting element of the Miller affair....
I think it would've been even worse if the Tories were in pre-budget, energy price induced despair mode, as they'd have seen it as taking them beyond the threshold of likely recovery, from an 8-9 Lab lead to a 11 or 12 point one.
Noticeable that most ire was directed at Miller, rather than Dave for his rather poorly worded 'leave it at that' and refusal to cut her adrift.
Unlikely, Labour haven't enjoyed 8/9 leads regularly since last year and are trending slowly downwards. There is little sign yet of a collapse in Tory support from Miller. We are into the last couple of hurdles and the elbow beckons. Miller will wear it, Cam wouldn't sack her as that was a rather obvious Leveson shaped press trap. Expect more 'stories' this weekend
I bet Cam is crapping himself at facing 'an expense saint', who leads a party of troughers and has five former comrades who gone done bird for fiddling. Go on expenses Ed, bury yourself.
If Miliband plays his cards well at PMQ’s, he can certainly make life a little uncomfortable for Cameron. However, if he goes off on another of his shouty sanctimonious rants, Cameron will clobber him with five Labour MP Expense cheats jailed for fraud on his watch and gently remind the opposition leader of the present incumbent Hazel Blears, waving a cheque for £15,000 after she was caught out avoiding CGT - having flipped her secondary home status amongst her varied property portfolio.
Hazel Blears actually did not do anything which would have resulted in CGT. Even the IR clarified that. She volunteered the sum because it was "percieved" [ quite correctly in my opinion ] that she had made capital gains as the general public would understand it.
Cheers for the clarification - I'm sure the little munchkin could afford it.
Do you know who gets his former post of Financial Secretary to the Treasury?
Nicky Morgan, who will also be Minister for Women and attend Cabinet in that role.
Surprised at Javid getting this job, I thought it would be Anna Sourby but I guess they are trying to round him out in preparation for his march to the top.
Do you know who gets his former post of Financial Secretary to the Treasury?
Nicky Morgan, who will also be Minister for Women and attend Cabinet in that role.
Surprised at Javid getting this job, I thought it would be Anna Sourby but I guess they are trying to round him out in preparation for his march to the top.
Good choice.
From the little I have seen of her, I have liked her.
It'll be interesting to see who benefits from this sorry saga. I suspect this just reinforces the contempt that many people have for politicians in general, so no real change expected.
Ed may just go on quota politics - as long as he's updated his script to take account of the resignation (and there's no guarantee of that).
On a rather more substantial matter, Socrates posted a link last night to a summary of the IEA Brexit winner's (Iain Mansfield) entry. The full winning document is a bit hard to find on the IEA website, it's here:
I must say, on a quick read it looks like a really well-thought out paper. Mansfield quite rightly IMO rejects the idea of remaining in the EEA (that's always seemed to me to be worst of both worlds), relying instead on a combination of EFTA membership and a specific trade agreement with the EU. He seems to be very realistic about the issues and trade-offs, but one area which I think needs further investigation is exactly what we could realistically negotiate in terms of financial services - that's clearly a key concern for Britain.
The paper can also be read as a guide to the priorities for renegotation if we do remain formally in the EU, as it lists very clearly the pros and cons of the various aspects of the relationship.
All in all, a top piece of work - the best summary of what we should aim at, if we leave the EU, that I've seen.
Most of those softly sticking the knife in weren't Labour MPs but Tories
Yes - because the bulk of dispirited Tory MP's who until recently thought the next election was lost now think after the Budget and the economic stats that the next election is far from lost.
That is quite an interesting element of the Miller affair....
I think it would've been even worse if the Tories were in pre-budget, energy price induced despair mode, as they'd have seen it as taking them beyond the threshold of likely recovery, from an 8-9 Lab lead to a 11 or 12 point one.
Noticeable that most ire was directed at Miller, rather than Dave for his rather poorly worded 'leave it at that' and refusal to cut her adrift.
Unlikely, Labour haven't enjoyed 8/9 leads regularly since last year and are trending slowly downwards. There is little sign yet of a collapse in Tory support from Miller. We are into the last couple of hurdles and the elbow beckons. Miller will wear it, Cam wouldn't sack her as that was a rather obvious Leveson shaped press trap. Expect more 'stories' this weekend
I know they're trending slowly downwards - I was saying that the reaction to Miller among Tory MPs would've been even worse if Labour's poll lead was where it was 6 months ago, as those who've rather sensationally claimed that it could cost them the election may have been right - a story as badly handled as this could've hardened a poll lead capable of being winnowed away into a winning one, and it certainly would've induced more panic and direct fire at Dave. As it is we've seen more mild upset and annoyance from his backbenchers.
Don't know if Miller will have an effect on the polls - at worst a blip of 1 or 2 points until everyone moves on - the longer term damage may be that it makes it more difficult to get non-voters and Kippers to vote Con- something that the Tories need to be in anyway confident of victory.
and is apparently widely regarded. Giving him an outing as head of a minor department but with Cabinet rank will give him an opportunity to show his talent and hone his political skills.
Javid's back-story looks good (son of a Bangladeshi immigrant, comprehensive school, first of family to Uni, Exeter to Oxbridge), chucked up a very well-paying job to enter politics for good sounding reasons), except for one thing. That well-paying job was a banker! Some of our leftie friends are going to tie themselves in knots trying to align their prejudices with this fellow.
Comments
Miller will wear it, Cam wouldn't sack her as that was a rather obvious Leveson shaped press trap.
Expect more 'stories' this weekend
“@sundersays: Mail on Sunday profile of new Culture Secretary Sajid Javid (a couple of weeks ago) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2592532/Is-Maggies-Muslim-heir-set-follow-No-10-Raised-shopkeeper-instilled-value-hard-work-treasury-star-Sajid-Javid-claim-biggest-prize.html …” @Odoreida
Paddy hasn't even settled existing Cabinet member out yet !
Nicky Morgan, who will also be Minister for Women and attend Cabinet in that role.
Surprised at Javid getting this job, I thought it would be Anna Sourby but I guess they are trying to round him out in preparation for his march to the top.
From the little I have seen of her, I have liked her.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/04/miller-was-right-to-resign.html
Nicky Morgan is only Minister for Women, Sajid Javid keeps the equalities part of the brief
http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/12-months-to-go-historical-polls-suggest-a-knife-edge-election-result/
The hypothesised result is very close to what I'd unconsciously been imagining.
Ed may just go on quota politics - as long as he's updated his script to take account of the resignation (and there's no guarantee of that).
http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Brexit Entry 170_final_bio_web.pdf
I must say, on a quick read it looks like a really well-thought out paper. Mansfield quite rightly IMO rejects the idea of remaining in the EEA (that's always seemed to me to be worst of both worlds), relying instead on a combination of EFTA membership and a specific trade agreement with the EU. He seems to be very realistic about the issues and trade-offs, but one area which I think needs further investigation is exactly what we could realistically negotiate in terms of financial services - that's clearly a key concern for Britain.
The paper can also be read as a guide to the priorities for renegotation if we do remain formally in the EU, as it lists very clearly the pros and cons of the various aspects of the relationship.
All in all, a top piece of work - the best summary of what we should aim at, if we leave the EU, that I've seen.
Con: 6,960 (31%)
Lab: 5,968 (27.5%)
LD: 2,898 (13%)
UKIP: 5,856 (27%)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/basingstoke/
Don't know if Miller will have an effect on the polls - at worst a blip of 1 or 2 points until everyone moves on - the longer term damage may be that it makes it more difficult to get non-voters and Kippers to vote Con- something that the Tories need to be in anyway confident of victory.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/why-sajid-javid-could-end-up-at-the-top-of-the-tory-tree/
and is apparently widely regarded. Giving him an outing as head of a minor department but with Cabinet rank will give him an opportunity to show his talent and hone his political skills.
Javid's back-story looks good (son of a Bangladeshi immigrant, comprehensive school, first of family to Uni, Exeter to Oxbridge), chucked up a very well-paying job to enter politics for good sounding reasons), except for one thing. That well-paying job was a banker! Some of our leftie friends are going to tie themselves in knots trying to align their prejudices with this fellow.