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My 100/1 tip to be our next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 21,804

    MattW said:

    A further note on Kent County Council.

    The RefUK majority has gone from 33 (57 vs 24) to 9 (45 vs 36) since May.

    That's one hell of a drop, and potentially existential for the control of the Council, especially with the budget process about to happen.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/councils/E10000016
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_County_Council

    Nationally, they have lost five percent of their May victories to resignation or expulsion.

    https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3m4aikslnus26

    I don't have the figures for other parties, but I'm pretty confident this isn't normal.

    Possible causes:

    Unexpected winners who don't really have the time/energy/capacity to do the role.

    Flakes who shouldn't have got through vetting.

    People getting out of the kitchen because they don't like the heat- it turns out that you can't cut taxes by abolishing wokeness.

    Free spirits (who I expect would be attracted to Reform) not liking the authoritarian leadership.

    Other stuff I've missed.

    (Seriously- anyone got comparable figures for other parties?)
    I suspect a mix of all of the above.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,556

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    I see the lads are being driven mad by Türkiye. Prerhaps there need to be quotas for foreign words in public use.

    If Turkey wishes to call itself Türkiye that's up to them. If we want to call them Turkey still thats up to us. Don't the French call us Grande Bretagne? And the Germans Großbritannien?
    If they wish us to call them Turkiye, then there's no issues with being polite and respecting that.

    However they want to use characters not in our alphabet.
    다른 키보드도 사용 가능합니다
    And special characters are easily inserted.
    I almost flagged that comment.

    There speaks a man who has never had to deal with Windows code page issues.
    Some tasks are still difficult even with modern encodings:

    https://stackoverflow.com/questions/35328529/stdstring-optimal-way-to-truncate-utf-8-at-safe-place
  • NEW THREAD

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,129
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Speaking of mixed race families -- and elections -- I think the second most interesting race in the US this year is between Seattle mayor Bruce Harrell, and challenger Katie Wilson:

    Judging by his record, Harrell lives mostly in the real world; judging by what I have learned during the campaign, Wilson does not:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Wilson

    If Harrell wins, it will be a sign that ordinary Democrats are more willing to tolerate candidates, especially candidates from favored minorities, who live mostly in the real world.

    (Unimportant, but it amuses me: Judging by the pictures I've seen, Wilson doesn't apppear to get out often for exercise. )

    Another interesting one, Virginia Governor.

    Abigail Spanberger vs Winsome Earle-Sears. The black lady is the Republican.

    https://x.com/pwcgop/status/1982461716459069925
    There's a big scandal with the Democrat candidate for Attorney General in Virginia, so that's a market to really watch. (I may write a header, and it *might* imapct the Governor race.)
    Ah yes, Jay Jones, who sounds like an absolute scumbag given the role for which he’s standing.

    Republican incumbents in both positions, that in a normal election would expect to go Dem given a Republican President.
    Indeed: the Virginia governorship reliably 'flips' every time there's a change in party in the White House, and I'd expect it to flip again this year.

    I'm staggered the Jay Jones stuff didn't come out earlier; as you say he sounds like a total scumbag.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,672

    I see the lads are being driven mad by Türkiye. Prerhaps there need to be quotas for foreign words in public use.

    If Turkey wishes to call itself Türkiye that's up to them. If we want to call them Turkey still thats up to us. Don't the French call us Grande Bretagne? And the Germans Großbritannien?
    Afaik Turkey hasn't issued any strictures about it, or even cares.

    I look forward to the next gammony prolapses over Beijing and Mumbai.

    'Save our Bombay and Peking ducks!'
    Turkey wants to be called Türkiye in rebranding move
    Published
    2 June 2022


    ByTiffany Wertheimer
    BBC News

    Turkey will be known as Türkiye at the United Nations from now on, after it agreed to a formal request from Ankara.

    Several international bodies will be asked to make the name change as part of a rebranding campaign launched by the Turkish president late last year.

    "Türkiye is the best representation and expression of the Turkish people's culture, civilization, and values," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in December.

    The UN says it made the change as soon as it received the request this week.

    Most Turks already know their country as Türkiye. However the anglicised form Turkey is widely used, even within the country.

    State broadcaster TRT was quick to make the change as soon as it was announced last year, explaining that among the reasons for the image rebrand was the association with the bird traditionally associated with Christmas, New Year or Thanksgiving.

    It also pointed out the Cambridge English Dictionary's definition of one of the meanings of the word as "something that fails badly" or "a stupid or silly person".

    As part of the re-branding, "Made in Türkiye" will feature on all exported products, and in January a tourism campaign was launched with the catch-phrase "Hello Türkiye".

    The move has been met with a mixed reaction online. While government officials support it, others say it is an ineffective distraction as the president gears up for elections next year, amid an economic crisis.

    It is not uncommon for countries to change their names.

    In 2020, The Netherlands dropped Holland in a rebranding move. And before that, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia due to a political dispute with Greece, and Swaziland became Eswatini in 2018.

    Further back in history, Iran used to be called Persia, Siam is now Thailand, and Rhodesia was changed to Zimbabwe.

    The Ü may be tricky for most of the international audience who don't have that letter in their alphabet but it's the same as the German Ü, like the U in pure or cue. So for an English-speaker, changing the first vowel of Turkey to a Ü and adding an E to the end (as in pet) is enough to pronounce the new name perfectly.

    But why was this necessary? President Erdogan was pushing for this move for years, arguing that the country would be better represented with the Turkish name instead of sharing the same word with a bird.

    Turkey the bird is called by a different name in many languages, such as "peru" in Portuguese, while in Turkish it is "hindi".

    Many social media users refer to this fact to criticise the Turkish government's move as absurd, while others agree that it was a necessary rebranding.

    We have to wait and see if people around the world will accept Türkiye instead of Turkey, Turquie or Twrci.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61671913
    Ah, more branding.

    Fuck your Snickers, it will always be Marathon to me, named after one of the founding events of Western white (if a bit suntanned) civilisation!
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,226
    carnforth said:

    For today's quota, a picture of the fun people like me, with astigmatism, have driving at night:


    I have or had astigmatism, but the optician never mentions it now, because I have double vision.

    Without my specs, every road looks like both of your pictures together.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,804
    Some good news on the TV scheduling.

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice.

    https://www.tvzoneuk.com/post/bullseye-series2025-returndateann1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,701
    @jimsciutto
    Breaking: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to carry out "immediate, powerful"
    strikes in Gaza following security consultations, the PM’s office said in a statement. Earlier Netanyahu’s office said Hamas is in “clear violation” of the Gaza ceasefire agreement after returning remains that did not belong to any of the 13 hostages still unaccounted for.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,655
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

    RefUK 27%(+1),
    CON 17%(nc),
    LAB 17%(-3),
    GRN 16%(+1)
    LDEM 15%(nc),

    According to YouGov, the 17% for Labour is, they believe believe, the lowest we have shown them on and the Green score is their highest.

    Needless to say, it's an unusual result with four parties within 2 points of each other.


    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1983053821849817502

    Labour and the Tories now tied and only just ahead of the Greens and LDs shows that both the main parties are finding it difficult to distinguish themselves. Labour are losing votes to their left to the Greens and to the centre to the LDs and the Tories have already lost the right to Reform and under Kemi are losing centrist voters to the LDs as well.

    Reform ahead clearly but only on 27% so still very vulnerable to anti Farage tactical voting
    It's a fascinating time to be involved in politics! There is a very simple message from the electorate - they're mad as hell and they're not going to take it any more. The party who can offer the most convincing fix for the mess will win.
    You don't think the winner will be the Party offering the most attractive illusion?
    I think there are two more cycles: Reform and then radical left (Green or Sultana) And then we may consider facing up to our problems. But we are not at rock bottom yet.
    Radical Left would be apocalyptic.

    No-one would come out with any private assets intact out the other side, and it'd take us decades to recover, and many of us never would.
    Interesting question? Would we prefer a Corbyn/Foot type government or Farage/Trump type of Government?

    I appreciate it sounds like a choice of which foot would you like to shoot, but if I had to choose I would go for Corbyn/Foot because although they might be worse at running the economy (maybe?) they aren't obviously destroying the democracy. Further left and of course that is also a possibilty
    I'd go for Farage/Trump every time, and it's not even close.

    So would most of the country.
    I’d vote for the hard left on the basis they are less likely to deport me.
    They would see your wealth and class, not your race.

    FWIW, the Trump/Farage stuff is hugely overblown on deportation.
    It is now US government policy that ICE can arrest you on the basis you look Latino.
    Approved by the Supreme Court.
    Which should be a source of eternal shame to the "conservatives" on the bench.
    Especially Clarence Thomas, given similar statutes were used against his ancestors.
    And given he's massively corrupt?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,151

    I see the lads are being driven mad by Türkiye. Prerhaps there need to be quotas for foreign words in public use.

    If Turkey wishes to call itself Türkiye that's up to them. If we want to call them Turkey still thats up to us. Don't the French call us Grande Bretagne? And the Germans Großbritannien?
    Afaik Turkey hasn't issued any strictures about it, or even cares.

    I look forward to the next gammony prolapses over Beijing and Mumbai.

    'Save our Bombay and Peking ducks!'
    Turkey wants to be called Türkiye in rebranding move
    Published
    2 June 2022


    ByTiffany Wertheimer
    BBC News

    Turkey will be known as Türkiye at the United Nations from now on, after it agreed to a formal request from Ankara.

    Several international bodies will be asked to make the name change as part of a rebranding campaign launched by the Turkish president late last year.

    "Türkiye is the best representation and expression of the Turkish people's culture, civilization, and values," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in December.

    The UN says it made the change as soon as it received the request this week.

    Most Turks already know their country as Türkiye. However the anglicised form Turkey is widely used, even within the country.

    State broadcaster TRT was quick to make the change as soon as it was announced last year, explaining that among the reasons for the image rebrand was the association with the bird traditionally associated with Christmas, New Year or Thanksgiving.

    It also pointed out the Cambridge English Dictionary's definition of one of the meanings of the word as "something that fails badly" or "a stupid or silly person".

    As part of the re-branding, "Made in Türkiye" will feature on all exported products, and in January a tourism campaign was launched with the catch-phrase "Hello Türkiye".

    The move has been met with a mixed reaction online. While government officials support it, others say it is an ineffective distraction as the president gears up for elections next year, amid an economic crisis.

    It is not uncommon for countries to change their names.

    In 2020, The Netherlands dropped Holland in a rebranding move. And before that, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia due to a political dispute with Greece, and Swaziland became Eswatini in 2018.

    Further back in history, Iran used to be called Persia, Siam is now Thailand, and Rhodesia was changed to Zimbabwe.

    The Ü may be tricky for most of the international audience who don't have that letter in their alphabet but it's the same as the German Ü, like the U in pure or cue. So for an English-speaker, changing the first vowel of Turkey to a Ü and adding an E to the end (as in pet) is enough to pronounce the new name perfectly.

    But why was this necessary? President Erdogan was pushing for this move for years, arguing that the country would be better represented with the Turkish name instead of sharing the same word with a bird.

    Turkey the bird is called by a different name in many languages, such as "peru" in Portuguese, while in Turkish it is "hindi".

    Many social media users refer to this fact to criticise the Turkish government's move as absurd, while others agree that it was a necessary rebranding.

    We have to wait and see if people around the world will accept Türkiye instead of Turkey, Turquie or Twrci.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61671913
    Ah, more branding.

    Fuck your Snickers, it will always be Marathon to me, named after one of the founding events of Western white (if a bit suntanned) civilisation!
    Bugger Snickers bars, it's the North British Hotel and Thin's for me ...
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,804
    Carnyx said:

    I see the lads are being driven mad by Türkiye. Prerhaps there need to be quotas for foreign words in public use.

    If Turkey wishes to call itself Türkiye that's up to them. If we want to call them Turkey still thats up to us. Don't the French call us Grande Bretagne? And the Germans Großbritannien?
    Afaik Turkey hasn't issued any strictures about it, or even cares.

    I look forward to the next gammony prolapses over Beijing and Mumbai.

    'Save our Bombay and Peking ducks!'
    Turkey wants to be called Türkiye in rebranding move
    Published
    2 June 2022


    ByTiffany Wertheimer
    BBC News

    Turkey will be known as Türkiye at the United Nations from now on, after it agreed to a formal request from Ankara.

    Several international bodies will be asked to make the name change as part of a rebranding campaign launched by the Turkish president late last year.

    "Türkiye is the best representation and expression of the Turkish people's culture, civilization, and values," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in December.

    The UN says it made the change as soon as it received the request this week.

    Most Turks already know their country as Türkiye. However the anglicised form Turkey is widely used, even within the country.

    State broadcaster TRT was quick to make the change as soon as it was announced last year, explaining that among the reasons for the image rebrand was the association with the bird traditionally associated with Christmas, New Year or Thanksgiving.

    It also pointed out the Cambridge English Dictionary's definition of one of the meanings of the word as "something that fails badly" or "a stupid or silly person".

    As part of the re-branding, "Made in Türkiye" will feature on all exported products, and in January a tourism campaign was launched with the catch-phrase "Hello Türkiye".

    The move has been met with a mixed reaction online. While government officials support it, others say it is an ineffective distraction as the president gears up for elections next year, amid an economic crisis.

    It is not uncommon for countries to change their names.

    In 2020, The Netherlands dropped Holland in a rebranding move. And before that, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia due to a political dispute with Greece, and Swaziland became Eswatini in 2018.

    Further back in history, Iran used to be called Persia, Siam is now Thailand, and Rhodesia was changed to Zimbabwe.

    The Ü may be tricky for most of the international audience who don't have that letter in their alphabet but it's the same as the German Ü, like the U in pure or cue. So for an English-speaker, changing the first vowel of Turkey to a Ü and adding an E to the end (as in pet) is enough to pronounce the new name perfectly.

    But why was this necessary? President Erdogan was pushing for this move for years, arguing that the country would be better represented with the Turkish name instead of sharing the same word with a bird.

    Turkey the bird is called by a different name in many languages, such as "peru" in Portuguese, while in Turkish it is "hindi".

    Many social media users refer to this fact to criticise the Turkish government's move as absurd, while others agree that it was a necessary rebranding.

    We have to wait and see if people around the world will accept Türkiye instead of Turkey, Turquie or Twrci.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61671913
    Ah, more branding.

    Fuck your Snickers, it will always be Marathon to me, named after one of the founding events of Western white (if a bit suntanned) civilisation!
    Bugger Snickers bars, it's the North British Hotel and Thin's for me ...
    Opal fruit.

    Made to make your mouth water
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,487
    maxh said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention

    RefUK 27%(+1),
    CON 17%(nc),
    LAB 17%(-3),
    GRN 16%(+1)
    LDEM 15%(nc),

    According to YouGov, the 17% for Labour is, they believe believe, the lowest we have shown them on and the Green score is their highest.

    Needless to say, it's an unusual result with four parties within 2 points of each other.


    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1983053821849817502

    Labour and the Tories now tied and only just ahead of the Greens and LDs shows that both the main parties are finding it difficult to distinguish themselves. Labour are losing votes to their left to the Greens and to the centre to the LDs and the Tories have already lost the right to Reform and under Kemi are losing centrist voters to the LDs as well.

    Reform ahead clearly but only on 27% so still very vulnerable to anti Farage tactical voting
    It's a fascinating time to be involved in politics! There is a very simple message from the electorate - they're mad as hell and they're not going to take it any more. The party who can offer the most convincing fix for the mess will win.
    You don't think the winner will be the Party offering the most attractive illusion?
    I think there are two more cycles: Reform and then radical left (Green or Sultana) And then we may consider facing up to our problems. But we are not at rock bottom yet.
    Radical Left would be apocalyptic.

    No-one would come out with any private assets intact out the other side, and it'd take us decades to recover, and many of us never would.
    Interesting question? Would we prefer a Corbyn/Foot type government or Farage/Trump type of Government?

    I appreciate it sounds like a choice of which foot would you like to shoot, but if I had to choose I would go for Corbyn/Foot because although they might be worse at running the economy (maybe?) they aren't obviously destroying the democracy. Further left and of course that is also a possibilty
    I'd go for Farage/Trump every time, and it's not even close.

    So would most of the country.
    Then most of the country are wrong, as are you.
    I don't think so. Plenty of people on here (many reading this now, and even posting) would handwring about it publicly, and then still vote for them in the voting booth.

    Farage is a pub bore and a bit of an ass, but I'd far rather him in power than Corbyn/Foot.

    My concern with him isn't his shtick, it's that I don't think he could manage a team or do the job and his economics are fantasy land.
    I did vote for Corbyn in 2016 (for the regional vote in the Holyrood elections), but I couldn't now vote for anyone who doesn't take the threat from Russia seriously. Not for Corbyn. Not for Polanski. Not for Farage.

    I'm surprised at the number of PB Righties prepared to overlook Farage's support for Putin.
    I think the conflation of Farage and Trump here is unhelpful.

    @Casino_Royale I'd be interested in whether you'd go for Trump over Corbyn. I can understand you choosing Farage (populist right, roughly in line with Trump's first term perhaps). But Trump now?

    Imv we all need to carefully consider which of the options at our next election are best placed to preserve and strengthen democracy in the face of a pretty crap set of political choices that will need to be made in the next generation or two.

    One can have a sensible argument over whether Farage (playing to the gallery, keeping people engaged in politics) or Starmer (stolid respect of the rule of law) are best placed to keep our democracy healthy (neither is a great choice). But Trump is way out on the extremes on this.
    Yes, I'd go for Trump over Corbyn.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,487
    Andy_JS said:

    "An Afghan national has been arrested after a triple stabbing left a man dead. The 22-year-old was arrested at the scene on suspicion of murder and attempted murder, the Metropolitan Police said. Police and ambulance crews were called to Midhurst Gardens in Uxbridge at around 5pm on Monday where the three victims were stabbed. A 49-year-old man was treated at the scene but died, while another man, aged 45, suffered life-changing injuries. A 14-year-old’s injuries were not life-threatening or changing."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/28/afghan-arrested-triple-stabbing-uxbridge

    All these stories seem almost hell-sent to drive scepticism of government immigration control and asylum policy to utterly new levels.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,388
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    I see the lads are being driven mad by Türkiye. Prerhaps there need to be quotas for foreign words in public use.

    If Turkey wishes to call itself Türkiye that's up to them. If we want to call them Turkey still thats up to us. Don't the French call us Grande Bretagne? And the Germans Großbritannien?
    Afaik Turkey hasn't issued any strictures about it, or even cares.

    I look forward to the next gammony prolapses over Beijing and Mumbai.

    'Save our Bombay and Peking ducks!'
    Turkey wants to be called Türkiye in rebranding move
    Published
    2 June 2022


    ByTiffany Wertheimer
    BBC News

    Turkey will be known as Türkiye at the United Nations from now on, after it agreed to a formal request from Ankara.

    Several international bodies will be asked to make the name change as part of a rebranding campaign launched by the Turkish president late last year.

    "Türkiye is the best representation and expression of the Turkish people's culture, civilization, and values," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in December.

    The UN says it made the change as soon as it received the request this week.

    Most Turks already know their country as Türkiye. However the anglicised form Turkey is widely used, even within the country.

    State broadcaster TRT was quick to make the change as soon as it was announced last year, explaining that among the reasons for the image rebrand was the association with the bird traditionally associated with Christmas, New Year or Thanksgiving.

    It also pointed out the Cambridge English Dictionary's definition of one of the meanings of the word as "something that fails badly" or "a stupid or silly person".

    As part of the re-branding, "Made in Türkiye" will feature on all exported products, and in January a tourism campaign was launched with the catch-phrase "Hello Türkiye".

    The move has been met with a mixed reaction online. While government officials support it, others say it is an ineffective distraction as the president gears up for elections next year, amid an economic crisis.

    It is not uncommon for countries to change their names.

    In 2020, The Netherlands dropped Holland in a rebranding move. And before that, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia due to a political dispute with Greece, and Swaziland became Eswatini in 2018.

    Further back in history, Iran used to be called Persia, Siam is now Thailand, and Rhodesia was changed to Zimbabwe.

    The Ü may be tricky for most of the international audience who don't have that letter in their alphabet but it's the same as the German Ü, like the U in pure or cue. So for an English-speaker, changing the first vowel of Turkey to a Ü and adding an E to the end (as in pet) is enough to pronounce the new name perfectly.

    But why was this necessary? President Erdogan was pushing for this move for years, arguing that the country would be better represented with the Turkish name instead of sharing the same word with a bird.

    Turkey the bird is called by a different name in many languages, such as "peru" in Portuguese, while in Turkish it is "hindi".

    Many social media users refer to this fact to criticise the Turkish government's move as absurd, while others agree that it was a necessary rebranding.

    We have to wait and see if people around the world will accept Türkiye instead of Turkey, Turquie or Twrci.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61671913
    Ah, more branding.

    Fuck your Snickers, it will always be Marathon to me, named after one of the founding events of Western white (if a bit suntanned) civilisation!
    Bugger Snickers bars, it's the North British Hotel and Thin's for me ...
    Opal fruit.

    Made to make your mouth water
    A Mars a day, helps you work, rest and play...
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