In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Yes, that is correct. The Executors are liable for the IHT, and they are entitled to treat payment of IHT as one of the expenses of the administration, to be discharged prior to distributing the estate.
Payment of the tax does not fall due on the beneficiaries.
The vast majority of the benefit of the inheritance of the post IHT estate does not go to the executors however, they just process IHT payment
IHT = theft!
Who caused the increase in the value of the property? Vast majority of the time anyway.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Yes, that is correct. The Executors are liable for the IHT, and they are entitled to treat payment of IHT as one of the expenses of the administration, to be discharged prior to distributing the estate.
Payment of the tax does not fall due on the beneficiaries.
The vast majority of the benefit of the inheritance of the post IHT estate does not go to the executors however, they just process IHT payment
IHT = theft!
Who caused the increase in the value of the property? Vast majority of the time anyway.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Interesting that there hasn’t been any suggestion of lengthening the 7 year loophole in IHT. It appears to have been increased three times from 3 to 5 then 7. I can only guess that it was based on life expectancy and was last changed to 7 years in 1969.
Theoretically you would think it justified to further increase the time scale to, say, ten years as life expectancy is much longer now (about ten years longer now) but clearly it would be very unpopular.
I believe extending to 10 years has actually been floated as one of the possible for Reeves budget. Whether this was just newspapers pontificating or based on a genuine source from the Treasury is another matter.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Yes, that is correct. The Executors are liable for the IHT, and they are entitled to treat payment of IHT as one of the expenses of the administration, to be discharged prior to distributing the estate.
Payment of the tax does not fall due on the beneficiaries.
The vast majority of the benefit of the inheritance of the post IHT estate does not go to the executors however, they just process IHT payment
IHT = theft!
Who caused the increase in the value of the property? Vast majority of the time anyway.
I mean the actual tax = theft.
Taxation (noun) a sophisticated way of demanding money with menaces. (Copyright Lord Vetinari)
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Interesting that there hasn’t been any suggestion of lengthening the 7 year loophole in IHT. It appears to have been increased three times from 3 to 5 then 7. I can only guess that it was based on life expectancy and was last changed to 7 years in 1969.
Theoretically you would think it justified to further increase the time scale to, say, ten years as life expectancy is much longer now (about ten years longer now) but clearly it would be very unpopular.
I expect Reeves to reduce it quite considerably if not scrap it
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
This is one of the bigger stories that hasn't perhaps got the coverage it deserves: Reform can't find those big efficiency savings they promised, so are having to push up council tax rates:
The Tories are more fiscally incontinent than Labour at the moment, although neither are as bad as Reform. Rachel Reeves is at least trying to make the numbers add up. The others aren't bothering, and to be fair they don't need to.
That is absolute fucking nonsense.
In what way is it nonsense?
In every single way possible. And you mark yourself out as a moron if you even question it.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It wasn't Brexit which destroyed them, it was removing Boris before the last GE.
Even when Boris resigned as PM the Conservatives were polling 30% and ReformUK were polling at less than 5% in the polls
How many times
Boris destroyed Boris all by himself and you need to move on
I just cooked thyme and garlic roast pork belly with carrot and parnsip batons, parmesan coated roast potatoes, cabbage peas and bacon lardons, home-made apple sauce and red wine jus.
I have to say. It didn't last long. And it was rather good.
Sounds delicious and I recently was introduced to the absolute heaven that are Parmesan roast potatoes!
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Interesting that there hasn’t been any suggestion of lengthening the 7 year loophole in IHT. It appears to have been increased three times from 3 to 5 then 7. I can only guess that it was based on life expectancy and was last changed to 7 years in 1969.
Theoretically you would think it justified to further increase the time scale to, say, ten years as life expectancy is much longer now (about ten years longer now) but clearly it would be very unpopular.
I believe extending to 10 years has actually been floated as one of the possible for Reeves budget. Whether this was just newspapers pontificating or based on a genuine source from the Treasury is another matter.
Not sure it gains much to be honest.
It's already 7 years so you are talking about a £x00m in 7-10 years time (i.e. half way through the next Parliament). So it's not going to make any difference, is it...
I have just woken up, surrounded by dark spires of redwoods. I can hear the northern Californian surf, outside, battering the grey rocks into shale, as the sky turns from slate to silvery blue
The lace of mist dissolves, where the creek meets the sea
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
I just cooked thyme and garlic roast pork belly with carrot and parnsip batons, parmesan coated roast potatoes, cabbage peas and bacon lardons, home-made apple sauce and red wine jus.
I have to say. It didn't last long. And it was rather good.
Sounds delicious and I recently was introduced to the absolute heaven that are Parmesan roast potatoes!
If you are London based there is a superb restaurant called Sparrow Italia that does Parmesan roast potatoes that are to die for!
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It has destroyed the Cons (or more accurately the shysters, flakes and ideologes it enabled have). Being flip I'd say at long last a Brexit benefit, but I'd be lying because the replacement is worse and I am in fact rooting for them to beat the odds and derail the Reform wagon. Not just so the right wing vote is split with maximum FPTP inefficiency (although there is that) but because I genuinely don't feel the contempt and revulsion for them that I do for the populist hard right. Unless they dump Badenoch for Jenrick, that is. If that happens my adversarial but at root healthy and accepting relationship with the Conservative party will be well and truly over.
Note Republicans have spent the last couple of decades warning Obama or Clinton or Biden were plotting to do this, and campaigning on opposing it.
They used to warn us of black Helicopters and masked government agents kidnapping people off the streets without warrants too.
It would be funny if it wasn't so horrifying.
And Farage wants it here.
Only one of these things is real. Oddly, she doesn't mention the victims were Democrats.
Bondi: "We've been living through a horrific cycle of political violence in this country ... night after night antifa wrecks havoc on the streets of our cities. In Minnesota, a gunman murdered a state lawmaker and her husband." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1976748023662231669
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Saddle up, cowboy!
I did that through the redwoods, decades ago. Honestly, I'd prefer the bike.
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Saddle up, cowboy!
I did that through the redwoods, decades ago. Honestly, I'd prefer the bike.
You don’t want to go horse riding in forests. Pointless. Constantly dodging branches or tripping over roots
Open grassland or beaches - that’s where you ride. Bikes are much better amidst trees
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
Did you see the gun batteries defending the Golden Gate, btw? They sound quite impressive.
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
The article says "It is understood that National Highways will remain responsible for the development of the crossing and will publish a breakdown of costs in its annual report, but decisions over the scope and funding of the project will be taken by ministers", and National Highways is apparently "a private company limited by shares, wholly owned by the Secretary of State for Transport" (per Wikipedia) presumably funded out of the DfT budget, so it's not entirely clear to me what's changing in practice here.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Interesting that there hasn’t been any suggestion of lengthening the 7 year loophole in IHT. It appears to have been increased three times from 3 to 5 then 7. I can only guess that it was based on life expectancy and was last changed to 7 years in 1969.
Theoretically you would think it justified to further increase the time scale to, say, ten years as life expectancy is much longer now (about ten years longer now) but clearly it would be very unpopular.
I expect Reeves to reduce it quite considerably if not scrap it
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Interesting that there hasn’t been any suggestion of lengthening the 7 year loophole in IHT. It appears to have been increased three times from 3 to 5 then 7. I can only guess that it was based on life expectancy and was last changed to 7 years in 1969.
Theoretically you would think it justified to further increase the time scale to, say, ten years as life expectancy is much longer now (about ten years longer now) but clearly it would be very unpopular.
I expect Reeves to reduce it quite considerably if not scrap it
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
So removed from people who may have a clue to a set of people that definitely won't have implementation management experience.
This has serious cost overruns written all over it now...
The Conservatives are the only party who support retaining the 2 child benefit cap.
Everyone else - Labour, LDs and Reform want it scrapped.
Yet the public overwhelmingly supports the cap.
Now Labour is going to scrap it at the Budget in November and it is going to substantially increase taxes.
This surely opens up a huge opportunity for the Conservatives. They can say they would have kept the cap - and if this was done there would be no need for the big tax rises.
Now of course only a small proportion of the tax rises will be to fund scrapping the cap. But never mind - the public doesn't do detail. There will be a very simple association to make - taxes are going up to fund benefit payments which are not supported.
Furthermore once the message starts sinking in it can then be widened to other areas - eg taxes are going up to fund big pay rises fior train drivers, net zero etc.
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
There’s a reason that it’s quite expensive to live there
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
There’s a reason that it’s quite expensive to live there
So I am discovering. It really is utopian
Yesterday I just drifted from winery to winery in the sun. In one place they told me their main concern was “the bears in the vineyards”
At the Roederer estate they stuffed me to the gills with America’s “finest sparkling wine”. L’Ermitage
Not a bad drop. Then I drove - ahem - through the sun lanced redwood forests down to the coast. Absolutely sublime
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Saddle up, cowboy!
I did that through the redwoods, decades ago. Honestly, I'd prefer the bike.
You don’t want to go horse riding in forests. Pointless. Constantly dodging branches or tripping over roots
Open grassland or beaches - that’s where you ride. Bikes are much better amidst trees
In the early 90s I went on a lovely ride through Eastern Estonia with a couple of mates from a letter agency. That was as a fun experience
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It wasn't Brexit which destroyed them, it was removing Boris before the last GE.
Even when Boris resigned as PM the Conservatives were polling 30% and ReformUK were polling at less than 5% in the polls
Brexit played an absolutely central role.
Firstly, the whole Tory psychodrama around Brexit damaged the party’s reputation and credibility, while taking the government’s eye off all the balls that really matter to voters for the best part of five years.
Second, the Tory party prior was a coalition of pro- and anti-Europeans, which has been ruptured by Brexit and particularly the way Brexit was done, with no attempt at compromise. Tory remainers - both politicians and voters - have been driven away, creating the opening for the LibDems to break through in the south. Once, the party pragmatically embraced a spectrum of views - yet not supporting Brexit then became a disqualification; when that wasn’t enough, Johnson imposed the requirement to be a hard Brexiter; now even that isn’t enough and you have to renounce the ECHR as well - a conservative creation - in order to be a Tory politician. This drive to become a narrow church is the precise opposite to what a party that aspires to a majority needs to be doing under our voting system.
Third, like most positions based on ideology rather than pragmatism, as soon as anyone attempts to compromise with reality, there is always someone more extreme ready to capitalise on your apparent lack of fervour. Essentially this is the opening, provided almost inevitably by the last government, that Farage has ruthlessly exploited to steal away the more extreme conservative politicians and voters.
And of course, referendums are essentially divisive, and reframe the way people see their politics. After what happened to Scottish Labour after the Indyref, you’d think the Tories would have thought twice before diving into a referendum themselves.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It wasn't Brexit which destroyed them, it was removing Boris before the last GE.
Even when Boris resigned as PM the Conservatives were polling 30% and ReformUK were polling at less than 5% in the polls
Brexit played an absolutely central role.
Firstly, the whole Tory psychodrama around Brexit damaged the party’s reputation and credibility, while taking the government’s eye off all the balls that really matter to voters for the best part of five years.
Second, the Tory party prior was a coalition of pro- and anti-Europeans, which has been ruptured by Brexit and particularly the way Brexit was done, with no attempt at compromise. Tory remainers - both politicians and voters - have been driven away, creating the opening for the LibDems to break through in the south. Once, the party pragmatically embraced a spectrum of views - yet not supporting Brexit then became a disqualification; when that wasn’t enough, Johnson imposed the requirement to be a hard Brexiter; now even that isn’t enough and you have to renounce the ECHR as well - a conservative creation - in order to be a Tory politician. This drive to become a narrow church is the precise opposite of what a party that aspires to a majority needs to be doing under our voting system.
Third, like most positions based on ideology rather than pragmatism, as soon as anyone attempts to compromise with reality, there is always someone more extreme ready to capitalise on your apparent lack of fervour. Essentially this is the opening, provided almost inevitably by the last government, that Farage has ruthlessly exploited to steal away the more extreme conservative politicians and voters.
Did it? In the referendum it was 52% of the UK voters who themselves voted FOR Brexit when the Tory leader at the time David Cameron was campaigning AGAINST Brexit.
Johnson won an 80 seat majority in 2019 with a new coalition including skilled white working class Leavers who have now gone to Farage and won an 80 seat majority with 43% of the vote. That was with a few diehard Remainer ex Tories going LD in areas like Surrey. The LD voteshare in 2024 was just 1% higher than they got in 2019, it was the split on the right between Tories and Reform that enabled the LDs to gain so many home counties seats from the Tories. The Tories were of course still in the ECHR under Johnson, it is only since he was removed Farage's surge has pushed Kemi to renounce it.
Apparently war has broken out between Afghanistan and Pakistan along the Durand line. This is North West Territory tribal stuff. I am just reading Susan Loughhead's The End Game which is an account of how the Great Game came to an end with Indian and Pakistan independence. There was incredible diplomatic activity to settle the relevant borders with Afghanistan. The problem was around the position of the tribes like the Afridi and the Waziri and the demand for a Pashtunistan. Perhaps the Taliban have revived the issue.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Interesting that there hasn’t been any suggestion of lengthening the 7 year loophole in IHT. It appears to have been increased three times from 3 to 5 then 7. I can only guess that it was based on life expectancy and was last changed to 7 years in 1969.
Theoretically you would think it justified to further increase the time scale to, say, ten years as life expectancy is much longer now (about ten years longer now) but clearly it would be very unpopular.
I expect Reeves to reduce it quite considerably if not scrap it
Apparently war has broken out between Afghanistan and Pakistan along the Durand line. This is North West Territory tribal stuff. I am just reading Susan Loughhead's The End Game which is an account of how the Great Game came to an end with Indian and Pakistan independence. There was incredible diplomatic activity to settle the relevant borders with Afghanistan. The problem was around the position of the tribes like the Afridi and the Waziri and the demand for a Pashtunistan. Perhaps the Taliban have revived the issue.
Risky for Kabul, Pakistan was one of the few long standing Taliban allies
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
Until the earthquakes.
And the fires.
And the taxes, the governmental incompetence, the traffic on the interstate, the crowded cities, the crap schools, the homeless drug-addled beggars, and constant water shortages. And last time I went there, the place was full of Americans.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It wasn't Brexit which destroyed them, it was removing Boris before the last GE.
Even when Boris resigned as PM the Conservatives were polling 30% and ReformUK were polling at less than 5% in the polls
Brexit played an absolutely central role.
Firstly, the whole Tory psychodrama around Brexit damaged the party’s reputation and credibility, while taking the government’s eye off all the balls that really matter to voters for the best part of five years.
Second, the Tory party prior was a coalition of pro- and anti-Europeans, which has been ruptured by Brexit and particularly the way Brexit was done, with no attempt at compromise. Tory remainers - both politicians and voters - have been driven away, creating the opening for the LibDems to break through in the south. Once, the party pragmatically embraced a spectrum of views - yet not supporting Brexit then became a disqualification; when that wasn’t enough, Johnson imposed the requirement to be a hard Brexiter; now even that isn’t enough and you have to renounce the ECHR as well - a conservative creation - in order to be a Tory politician. This drive to become a narrow church is the precise opposite of what a party that aspires to a majority needs to be doing under our voting system.
Third, like most positions based on ideology rather than pragmatism, as soon as anyone attempts to compromise with reality, there is always someone more extreme ready to capitalise on your apparent lack of fervour. Essentially this is the opening, provided almost inevitably by the last government, that Farage has ruthlessly exploited to steal away the more extreme conservative politicians and voters.
Did it? In the referendum it was 52% of the UK voters who themselves voted FOR Brexit when the Tory leader at the time David Cameron was campaigning AGAINST Brexit.
Johnson won an 80 seat majority in 2019 with a new coalition including skilled white working class Leavers who have now gone to Farage and won an 80 seat majority with 43% of the vote. That was with a few diehard Remainer ex Tories going LD in areas like Surrey. The LD voteshare in 2024 was just 1% higher than they got in 2019, it was the split on the right between Tories and Reform that enabled the LDs to gain so many home counties seats from the Tories. The Tories were of course still in the ECHR under Johnson, it is only since he was removed Farage's surge has pushed Kemi to renounce it.
That coalition was unsustainable, and most of those people were always ever going to vote Conservative only the once. Many of them simply wanted Brexit done with. Many others simply didn’t want Corbynism. That Johnson betrayed them by making no effort whatsoever to keep his promises simply made the collapse happen more quickly.
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
Until the earthquakes.
And the fires.
And the taxes, the governmental incompetence, the traffic on the interstate, the crowded cities, the crap schools, the homeless drug-addled beggars, and constant water shortages. And the place is full of Americans.
lol
“The crowded cities”
What do you want? “Empty and desolate cities”?
That’s like complaining about “all the tree filled woods”. Or the “oceans of water going on and on”
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
Autocorrect actually once changed 'DfT' to 'DfE' in a post I wrote. This led to the surreal situation where I blamed the collapse of HS2 on the DfE.
But I still say OFGEM are worse than either.
I'm still backing the DfT as the worst of the lot, but I wouldn't dispute the competition for the title is pretty stiff.
The DfT does have the fairly unique privilege that it gets to stuff up lots of very expensive infrastructure - their staffing fiascos are fixable in a fairly short timeframe - may 5 years or so. Some of the unsuitable rolling stock they have ordered is going to be the bane of people's lives the next 40 years.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Where on earth did you get that idea
It is the executor of the deceased that pays IHT not the children though they may be beneficiaries of the will
Interesting that there hasn’t been any suggestion of lengthening the 7 year loophole in IHT. It appears to have been increased three times from 3 to 5 then 7. I can only guess that it was based on life expectancy and was last changed to 7 years in 1969.
Theoretically you would think it justified to further increase the time scale to, say, ten years as life expectancy is much longer now (about ten years longer now) but clearly it would be very unpopular.
I expect Reeves to reduce it quite considerably if not scrap it
Sensible though a tax on property is, I suspect the possibility of such is simply being used by Labour to frighten the horses so that whatever package Reeves actually comes up with doesn’t seem so bad when it’s eventually revealed.
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
Until the earthquakes.
And the fires.
And the taxes, the governmental incompetence, the traffic on the interstate, the crowded cities, the crap schools, the homeless drug-addled beggars, and constant water shortages. And the place is full of Americans.
lol
“The crowded cities”
What do you want? “Empty and desolate cities”?
That’s like complaining about “all the tree filled woods”. Or the “oceans of water going on and on”
Crowded cities in California lead to problems like increased transmission of communicable diseases, poorer health and lower educational achievement for children, and a strain on public services, as well as significant traffic congestion. High housing costs contribute to residential overcrowding, where more people live in smaller spaces, which can be a hidden problem compared to overall urban density. This creates a more vulnerable environment during public health crises and exacerbates inequalities, as seen with the higher COVID-19 rates in more crowded neighborhoods.
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
Autocorrect actually once changed 'DfT' to 'DfE' in a post I wrote. This led to the surreal situation where I blamed the collapse of HS2 on the DfE.
But I still say OFGEM are worse than either.
I'm still backing the DfT as the worst of the lot, but I wouldn't dispute the competition for the title is pretty stiff.
The DfT does have the fairly unique privilege that it gets to stuff up lots of very expensive infrastructure - their staffing fiascos are fixable in a fairly short timeframe - may 5 years or so. Some of the unsuitable rolling stock they have ordered is going to be the bane of people's lives the next 40 years.
Apparently war has broken out between Afghanistan and Pakistan along the Durand line. This is North West Territory tribal stuff. I am just reading Susan Loughhead's The End Game which is an account of how the Great Game came to an end with Indian and Pakistan independence. There was incredible diplomatic activity to settle the relevant borders with Afghanistan. The problem was around the position of the tribes like the Afridi and the Waziri and the demand for a Pashtunistan. Perhaps the Taliban have revived the issue.
Perhaps the RAF can send a biplane or two to sort it out.
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
Until the earthquakes.
And the fires.
And the taxes, the governmental incompetence, the traffic on the interstate, the crowded cities, the crap schools, the homeless drug-addled beggars, and constant water shortages. And the place is full of Americans.
lol
“The crowded cities”
What do you want? “Empty and desolate cities”?
That’s like complaining about “all the tree filled woods”. Or the “oceans of water going on and on”
Crowded cities in California lead to problems like increased transmission of communicable diseases, poorer health and lower educational achievement for children, and a strain on public services, as well as significant traffic congestion. High housing costs contribute to residential overcrowding, where more people live in smaller spaces, which can be a hidden problem compared to overall urban density. This creates a more vulnerable environment during public health crises and exacerbates inequalities, as seen with the higher COVID-19 rates in more crowded neighborhoods.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It has destroyed the Cons (or more accurately the shysters, flakes and ideologes it enabled have). Being flip I'd say at long last a Brexit benefit, but I'd be lying because the replacement is worse and I am in fact rooting for them to beat the odds and derail the Reform wagon. Not just so the right wing vote is split with maximum FPTP inefficiency (although there is that) but because I genuinely don't feel the contempt and revulsion for them that I do for the populist hard right. Unless they dump Badenoch for Jenrick, that is. If that happens my adversarial but at root healthy and accepting relationship with the Conservative party will be well and truly over.
Unfortunately the tides of man are against you
“The fashion for the young: turn to the radical right
The intellectual energy of new rightwing movements is drawing in young people”
FT ££
I TOLD you I was ahead of the game. Everyone is now copying me
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It wasn't Brexit which destroyed them, it was removing Boris before the last GE.
Even when Boris resigned as PM the Conservatives were polling 30% and ReformUK were polling at less than 5% in the polls
Brexit played an absolutely central role.
Firstly, the whole Tory psychodrama around Brexit damaged the party’s reputation and credibility, while taking the government’s eye off all the balls that really matter to voters for the best part of five years.
Second, the Tory party prior was a coalition of pro- and anti-Europeans, which has been ruptured by Brexit and particularly the way Brexit was done, with no attempt at compromise. Tory remainers - both politicians and voters - have been driven away, creating the opening for the LibDems to break through in the south. Once, the party pragmatically embraced a spectrum of views - yet not supporting Brexit then became a disqualification; when that wasn’t enough, Johnson imposed the requirement to be a hard Brexiter; now even that isn’t enough and you have to renounce the ECHR as well - a conservative creation - in order to be a Tory politician. This drive to become a narrow church is the precise opposite of what a party that aspires to a majority needs to be doing under our voting system.
Third, like most positions based on ideology rather than pragmatism, as soon as anyone attempts to compromise with reality, there is always someone more extreme ready to capitalise on your apparent lack of fervour. Essentially this is the opening, provided almost inevitably by the last government, that Farage has ruthlessly exploited to steal away the more extreme conservative politicians and voters.
Did it? In the referendum it was 52% of the UK voters who themselves voted FOR Brexit when the Tory leader at the time David Cameron was campaigning AGAINST Brexit.
Johnson won an 80 seat majority in 2019 with a new coalition including skilled white working class Leavers who have now gone to Farage and won an 80 seat majority with 43% of the vote. That was with a few diehard Remainer ex Tories going LD in areas like Surrey. The LD voteshare in 2024 was just 1% higher than they got in 2019, it was the split on the right between Tories and Reform that enabled the LDs to gain so many home counties seats from the Tories. The Tories were of course still in the ECHR under Johnson, it is only since he was removed Farage's surge has pushed Kemi to renounce it.
That coalition was unsustainable, and most of those people were always ever going to vote Conservative only the once. Many of them simply wanted Brexit done with. Many others simply didn’t want Corbynism. That Johnson betrayed them by making no effort whatsoever to keep his promises simply made the collapse happen more quickly.
He delivered Brexit and beat Corbyn as he promised to do and also spent a fair amount on the redwall as well.
While he ended free movement from the EU he did expand immigration elsewhere via the Boriswave which was his only real betrayal but even then that was just the impact of the points system which was in the 2019 manifesto anyway (and net immigration now starting to fall via the tighter visa wage requirements Rishi and Cleverly brought in hasn't benefited the Tories much either)
“In the panic about young people flirting with fascism, this difference is important. Because one of the main reasons the young are drifting not just to the right, but to the radical or even far right, is its intellectual energy — a fresh fizz of ideas about the ways in which we organise society. That appeals to young people looking for something to get excited about, and something that feels like a departure from — a rebellion against — what their stodgy liberal parents believe.”
“But the gender gap is not the only intra-generational divide: polling suggests another significant disparity between the older members of Gen Z, who finished school before the pandemic hit in 2020, and the younger ones, who finished afterwards. The latter group skews right more than their predecessors. In a poll by Yale University this year, 18- to 21-year-olds supported Republicans by nearly 12 points over Democrats, while those aged 22-29 backed Democrats by about six points”
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It has destroyed the Cons (or more accurately the shysters, flakes and ideologes it enabled have). Being flip I'd say at long last a Brexit benefit, but I'd be lying because the replacement is worse and I am in fact rooting for them to beat the odds and derail the Reform wagon. Not just so the right wing vote is split with maximum FPTP inefficiency (although there is that) but because I genuinely don't feel the contempt and revulsion for them that I do for the populist hard right. Unless they dump Badenoch for Jenrick, that is. If that happens my adversarial but at root healthy and accepting relationship with the Conservative party will be well and truly over.
Unfortunately the tides of man are against you
“The fashion for the young: turn to the radical right
The intellectual energy of new rightwing movements is drawing in young people”
FT ££
I TOLD you I was ahead of the game. Everyone is now copying me
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
A beautiful autumn day today. We walked around Greenwich park, as we always do at least once every October when the chestnuts are on the ground.
The sort of October day that, as I’ve noted before on here, makes one want to listen to Gerry Rafferty’s Baker Street.
Sadly overcast and cool at the vineyard, where my attempt to scare the pheasants with a gas gun has fallen foul of the dog owning neighbours and met a premature end. So the grapes remain at the mercy of the flying rats. And the late season botrytis that the still cloudy days encourage. And the spotted wing drosophila. All of which makes one want to listen to nine inch nails.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It wasn't Brexit which destroyed them, it was removing Boris before the last GE.
Even when Boris resigned as PM the Conservatives were polling 30% and ReformUK were polling at less than 5% in the polls
Brexit played an absolutely central role.
Firstly, the whole Tory psychodrama around Brexit damaged the party’s reputation and credibility, while taking the government’s eye off all the balls that really matter to voters for the best part of five years.
Second, the Tory party prior was a coalition of pro- and anti-Europeans, which has been ruptured by Brexit and particularly the way Brexit was done, with no attempt at compromise. Tory remainers - both politicians and voters - have been driven away, creating the opening for the LibDems to break through in the south. Once, the party pragmatically embraced a spectrum of views - yet not supporting Brexit then became a disqualification; when that wasn’t enough, Johnson imposed the requirement to be a hard Brexiter; now even that isn’t enough and you have to renounce the ECHR as well - a conservative creation - in order to be a Tory politician. This drive to become a narrow church is the precise opposite of what a party that aspires to a majority needs to be doing under our voting system.
Third, like most positions based on ideology rather than pragmatism, as soon as anyone attempts to compromise with reality, there is always someone more extreme ready to capitalise on your apparent lack of fervour. Essentially this is the opening, provided almost inevitably by the last government, that Farage has ruthlessly exploited to steal away the more extreme conservative politicians and voters.
Did it? In the referendum it was 52% of the UK voters who themselves voted FOR Brexit when the Tory leader at the time David Cameron was campaigning AGAINST Brexit.
Johnson won an 80 seat majority in 2019 with a new coalition including skilled white working class Leavers who have now gone to Farage and won an 80 seat majority with 43% of the vote. That was with a few diehard Remainer ex Tories going LD in areas like Surrey. The LD voteshare in 2024 was just 1% higher than they got in 2019, it was the split on the right between Tories and Reform that enabled the LDs to gain so many home counties seats from the Tories. The Tories were of course still in the ECHR under Johnson, it is only since he was removed Farage's surge has pushed Kemi to renounce it.
That coalition was unsustainable, and most of those people were always ever going to vote Conservative only the once. Many of them simply wanted Brexit done with. Many others simply didn’t want Corbynism. That Johnson betrayed them by making no effort whatsoever to keep his promises simply made the collapse happen more quickly.
He delivered Brexit and beat Corbyn as he promised to do and also spent a fair amount on the redwall as well.
While he ended free movement from the EU he did expand immigration elsewhere via the Boriswave which was his only real betrayal but even then that was just the impact of the points system which was in the 2019 manifesto anyway (and net immigration now starting to fall via the tighter visa wage requirements Rishi and Cleverly brought in hasn't benefited the Tories much either)
You’re obviously not far down the change curve, still in denial. I wonder what it will take for you to adjust to your party’s new state of affairs?
“In the panic about young people flirting with fascism, this difference is important. Because one of the main reasons the young are drifting not just to the right, but to the radical or even far right, is its intellectual energy — a fresh fizz of ideas about the ways in which we organise society. That appeals to young people looking for something to get excited about, and something that feels like a departure from — a rebellion against — what their stodgy liberal parents believe.”
“But the gender gap is not the only intra-generational divide: polling suggests another significant disparity between the older members of Gen Z, who finished school before the pandemic hit in 2020, and the younger ones, who finished afterwards. The latter group skews right more than their predecessors. In a poll by Yale University this year, 18- to 21-year-olds supported Republicans by nearly 12 points over Democrats, while those aged 22-29 backed Democrats by about six points”
It is sunset for the centrist Dads
We’ll be back. Emerging from the smouldering ruins in a decade or so.
“In the panic about young people flirting with fascism, this difference is important. Because one of the main reasons the young are drifting not just to the right, but to the radical or even far right, is its intellectual energy — a fresh fizz of ideas about the ways in which we organise society. That appeals to young people looking for something to get excited about, and something that feels like a departure from — a rebellion against — what their stodgy liberal parents believe.”
“But the gender gap is not the only intra-generational divide: polling suggests another significant disparity between the older members of Gen Z, who finished school before the pandemic hit in 2020, and the younger ones, who finished afterwards. The latter group skews right more than their predecessors. In a poll by Yale University this year, 18- to 21-year-olds supported Republicans by nearly 12 points over Democrats, while those aged 22-29 backed Democrats by about six points”
It is sunset for the centrist Dads
We’ll be back. Emerging from the smouldering ruins in a decade or so.
Two decades at least. These secular swings last a long time
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Agreed. But you also need to attract new voters and expand your core. Especially with an otherwise ageing membership.,..
Stamp duty cutting is a policy targeted at first time buyers and second time buyers especially in London and the South, not pensioners
Read the speech again. Bit odd in that if they downsize they will have more than enough to pay the tax - but it messes with message.
"Pensioners who want to downsize but can’t afford the thousands of pounds they have to pay in tax."
Most pensioners don't want to downsize though and as you say if they do they will have enough to pay for it.
As I said it was targeted at first time and second time buyers in London and the South
As a pensioner who downsized I'm not sure you're right. Many of us recognise that the house in which we brought up our family is too big 'now'.
We downsized twice. 4000 sq ft 6 bedrooms to 2000 sq ft 4 bedrooms (which we built) in 2001 to 1250 sq ft 2 bedroom mansion flat in 2011 releasing equity for the kids both times. No regrets at all.
HYUFD is basically admitting it's a pamper-the-rich-southern-elderly strategy, though. Which it is, whatever other benefits it has.
No it is not. As I said most pensioners do not downsize, certainly unless widowed or widower or for equity release. As has also been pointed out if you downsize you will buy a cheaper smaller property so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway.
Nope the benefit of Stamp Duty being abolished goes almost entirely to first time young buyers or second time middle aged buyers, especially in London and the South
"so can easily afford Stamp Duty anyway"
Ditto with IHT. But do they want to pay either? Oh no.
And they still benefit, because the deletion of stamp duty inflates their house prices still more. Consistent Tory policy innit. Actually, come to think of it one must admire the Tories' consistency over decades - though not the result.
It is their children who ultimately pay IHT not them
Do you have any stats for "most pensioners do not downsize"? Pretty much every octogenarian I can think of is living in a smaller house than they were when they were in their late fifties. The only exceptions being those who never had children.
Here are some stats which tell you that the housing market in the UK is not as... mobile as it should be.
First: justy 3.5% of privately owned residential properties change hands every year. Now, sure, some of this is because of the large rental market in the UK. But part of it also has to be that people are not selling properties that they could.
Secondly: the ONS publishes data on the number of spare bedrooms. Even while there is a shortage of housing generally, the number of underutilised (spare) bedrooms is at all time highs.
I just cooked thyme and garlic roast pork belly with carrot and parnsip batons, parmesan coated roast potatoes, cabbage peas and bacon lardons, home-made apple sauce and red wine jus.
I have to say. It didn't last long. And it was rather good.
Sounds delicious and I recently was introduced to the absolute heaven that are Parmesan roast potatoes!
If you are London based there is a superb restaurant called Sparrow Italia that does Parmesan roast potatoes that are to die for!
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
As others have said, the best hope for the Conservatives is probably to talk about the economy rather than immigration or the culture "wars".
Badenoch's commitment to replacing stamp duty tax isn't cost free and the proposed savings in welfare are doing a lot of heavy lifting given the increasing demands on the welfare budget from an ageing population but at least it's something different though cynics like me might ask whether if Stamp Duty is such a pernicious tax in 2025, it wasn't considered so pernicious during the last period of Conservative administration to warrant abolition?
If the aim is to restore the public finances to somewhere near balance, then we need much more detail as to how this is to be achieved. Given we are likely to borrow £150 billion this financial year, how would a Conservative Government seek to bring that down given I imagine increases in defence spending and presumably spending on law and order (Police and prisons) would also rise.
If the Badenoch/Stride approach is going to be similar to Starmer/Reeves in ruling out any form of increase on income tax and VAT, then where ar the cuts going to come from? Vague waffling about "welfare" butters no parsnips as someone once said.
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
Until the earthquakes.
And the fires.
And the taxes, the governmental incompetence, the traffic on the interstate, the crowded cities, the crap schools, the homeless drug-addled beggars, and constant water shortages. And the place is full of Americans.
lol
“The crowded cities”
What do you want? “Empty and desolate cities”?
That’s like complaining about “all the tree filled woods”. Or the “oceans of water going on and on”
Crowded cities in California lead to problems like increased transmission of communicable diseases, poorer health and lower educational achievement for children, and a strain on public services, as well as significant traffic congestion. High housing costs contribute to residential overcrowding, where more people live in smaller spaces, which can be a hidden problem compared to overall urban density. This creates a more vulnerable environment during public health crises and exacerbates inequalities, as seen with the higher COVID-19 rates in more crowded neighborhoods.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It wasn't Brexit which destroyed them, it was removing Boris before the last GE.
Even when Boris resigned as PM the Conservatives were polling 30% and ReformUK were polling at less than 5% in the polls
Brexit played an absolutely central role.
Firstly, the whole Tory psychodrama around Brexit damaged the party’s reputation and credibility, while taking the government’s eye off all the balls that really matter to voters for the best part of five years.
Second, the Tory party prior was a coalition of pro- and anti-Europeans, which has been ruptured by Brexit and particularly the way Brexit was done, with no attempt at compromise. Tory remainers - both politicians and voters - have been driven away, creating the opening for the LibDems to break through in the south. Once, the party pragmatically embraced a spectrum of views - yet not supporting Brexit then became a disqualification; when that wasn’t enough, Johnson imposed the requirement to be a hard Brexiter; now even that isn’t enough and you have to renounce the ECHR as well - a conservative creation - in order to be a Tory politician. This drive to become a narrow church is the precise opposite of what a party that aspires to a majority needs to be doing under our voting system.
Third, like most positions based on ideology rather than pragmatism, as soon as anyone attempts to compromise with reality, there is always someone more extreme ready to capitalise on your apparent lack of fervour. Essentially this is the opening, provided almost inevitably by the last government, that Farage has ruthlessly exploited to steal away the more extreme conservative politicians and voters.
Did it? In the referendum it was 52% of the UK voters who themselves voted FOR Brexit when the Tory leader at the time David Cameron was campaigning AGAINST Brexit.
Johnson won an 80 seat majority in 2019 with a new coalition including skilled white working class Leavers who have now gone to Farage and won an 80 seat majority with 43% of the vote. That was with a few diehard Remainer ex Tories going LD in areas like Surrey. The LD voteshare in 2024 was just 1% higher than they got in 2019, it was the split on the right between Tories and Reform that enabled the LDs to gain so many home counties seats from the Tories. The Tories were of course still in the ECHR under Johnson, it is only since he was removed Farage's surge has pushed Kemi to renounce it.
That coalition was unsustainable, and most of those people were always ever going to vote Conservative only the once. Many of them simply wanted Brexit done with. Many others simply didn’t want Corbynism. That Johnson betrayed them by making no effort whatsoever to keep his promises simply made the collapse happen more quickly.
He delivered Brexit and beat Corbyn as he promised to do and also spent a fair amount on the redwall as well.
While he ended free movement from the EU he did expand immigration elsewhere via the Boriswave which was his only real betrayal but even then that was just the impact of the points system which was in the 2019 manifesto anyway (and net immigration now starting to fall via the tighter visa wage requirements Rishi and Cleverly brought in hasn't benefited the Tories much either)
And yet the Party turned on him and pushed him out as they had Thatcher more than thirty years earlier. You may think that was a mistake, he may think that was a mistake (and believes he could have won a 2024 GE) but not many others do.
I just cooked thyme and garlic roast pork belly with carrot and parnsip batons, parmesan coated roast potatoes, cabbage peas and bacon lardons, home-made apple sauce and red wine jus.
I have to say. It didn't last long. And it was rather good.
Sounds delicious and I recently was introduced to the absolute heaven that are Parmesan roast potatoes!
If you are London based there is a superb restaurant called Sparrow Italia that does Parmesan roast potatoes that are to die for!
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
“In the panic about young people flirting with fascism, this difference is important. Because one of the main reasons the young are drifting not just to the right, but to the radical or even far right, is its intellectual energy — a fresh fizz of ideas about the ways in which we organise society. That appeals to young people looking for something to get excited about, and something that feels like a departure from — a rebellion against — what their stodgy liberal parents believe.”
“But the gender gap is not the only intra-generational divide: polling suggests another significant disparity between the older members of Gen Z, who finished school before the pandemic hit in 2020, and the younger ones, who finished afterwards. The latter group skews right more than their predecessors. In a poll by Yale University this year, 18- to 21-year-olds supported Republicans by nearly 12 points over Democrats, while those aged 22-29 backed Democrats by about six points”
It is sunset for the centrist Dads
We’ll be back. Emerging from the smouldering ruins in a decade or so.
Two decades at least. These secular swings last a long time
Two decades requires the honeymoon period of early economic success, as per Mussolini and his timely trains, Hitler and his autobahns or Putin and his oil boom. If we pass straight to the economic crisis or rampant corruption phase then the turnaround could be quicker.
There are mornings when you wake so dark and early and beautifully sad, the last erotic dream melds seamlessly into the halflight of the day, and all the cool world is unreal
Good morning from Mendocino
Is 7am so early ?
6.15 is early
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
Early for a Sunday, TBF.
I have decided that California is nice and people should move here. In the south you’ve got lots of sun, it’s like the Med. These lovely soft evenings. Palm trees. If you’re googling look for “Los Angeles”
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
Right: I'm off to go and get myself the new Meta Ray Ban Vision glasses.
Wish me luck.
Tried on some belonging to a friend a few months ago, was surprised by how good the sound is considering the speakers are in the arms and not in the ears.
Right: I'm off to go and get myself the new Meta Ray Ban Vision glasses.
Wish me luck.
Tried on some belonging to a friend a few months ago, was surprised by how good the sound is considering the speakers are in the arms and not in the ears.
The real time subtitles seem like the killer application for me. When I'm in a crowded space, being able to "hear" people would be a real gamechanger.
The Conservatives are the only party who support retaining the 2 child benefit cap.
Everyone else - Labour, LDs and Reform want it scrapped.
Yet the public overwhelmingly supports the cap.
Now Labour is going to scrap it at the Budget in November and it is going to substantially increase taxes.
This surely opens up a huge opportunity for the Conservatives. They can say they would have kept the cap - and if this was done there would be no need for the big tax rises.
Now of course only a small proportion of the tax rises will be to fund scrapping the cap. But never mind - the public doesn't do detail. There will be a very simple association to make - taxes are going up to fund benefit payments which are not supported.
Furthermore once the message starts sinking in it can then be widened to other areas - eg taxes are going up to fund big pay rises fior train drivers, net zero etc.
The Mick Philpotts and Karen Matthews of the current generation are all in favour of ending the child benefit cap.
Right: I'm off to go and get myself the new Meta Ray Ban Vision glasses.
Wish me luck.
Tried on some belonging to a friend a few months ago, was surprised by how good the sound is considering the speakers are in the arms and not in the ears.
The real time subtitles seem like the killer application for me. When I'm in a crowded space, being able to "hear" people would be a real gamechanger.
As others have said, the best hope for the Conservatives is probably to talk about the economy rather than immigration or the culture "wars".
Badenoch's commitment to replacing stamp duty tax isn't cost free and the proposed savings in welfare are doing a lot of heavy lifting given the increasing demands on the welfare budget from an ageing population but at least it's something different though cynics like me might ask whether if Stamp Duty is such a pernicious tax in 2025, it wasn't considered so pernicious during the last period of Conservative administration to warrant abolition?
If the aim is to restore the public finances to somewhere near balance, then we need much more detail as to how this is to be achieved. Given we are likely to borrow £150 billion this financial year, how would a Conservative Government seek to bring that down given I imagine increases in defence spending and presumably spending on law and order (Police and prisons) would also rise.
If the Badenoch/Stride approach is going to be similar to Starmer/Reeves in ruling out any form of increase on income tax and VAT, then where ar the cuts going to come from? Vague waffling about "welfare" butters no parsnips as someone once said.
It's not Kemi's fault that when Labour tried to cut the welfare budget (increase) they managed to raise it.
I just cooked thyme and garlic roast pork belly with carrot and parnsip batons, parmesan coated roast potatoes, cabbage peas and bacon lardons, home-made apple sauce and red wine jus.
I have to say. It didn't last long. And it was rather good.
Parmesan coated roast potatoes noted. Thank you @Casino_Royale
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Hard to say. The Tories are heading for extinction because of their psychodramas mostly about Europe rather than focusing on what-works policies, and the related rise of Farage.
If they hadn't destroyed themselves with Brexit would they have invented something else? Maybe.
It has destroyed the Cons (or more accurately the shysters, flakes and ideologes it enabled have). Being flip I'd say at long last a Brexit benefit, but I'd be lying because the replacement is worse and I am in fact rooting for them to beat the odds and derail the Reform wagon. Not just so the right wing vote is split with maximum FPTP inefficiency (although there is that) but because I genuinely don't feel the contempt and revulsion for them that I do for the populist hard right. Unless they dump Badenoch for Jenrick, that is. If that happens my adversarial but at root healthy and accepting relationship with the Conservative party will be well and truly over.
Unfortunately the tides of man are against you
“The fashion for the young: turn to the radical right
The intellectual energy of new rightwing movements is drawing in young people”
FT ££
I TOLD you I was ahead of the game. Everyone is now copying me
Right: I'm off to go and get myself the new Meta Ray Ban Vision glasses.
Wish me luck.
Tried on some belonging to a friend a few months ago, was surprised by how good the sound is considering the speakers are in the arms and not in the ears.
People have been saying forever that they hear better with their glasses on. Now taken to a new level.
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
No "local" knowledge of National Highways, but if the DfT is as good at building roads as it is at running railways, with any luck they will keep the cost overrun to about £100bn or so.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
So removed from people who may have a clue to a set of people that definitely won't have implementation management experience.
This has serious cost overruns written all over it now...
If you read the article, the one thing that stands out is that environmental groups are against this. Which tells me it's very likely more to do with getting past planning objections and legal actions.
It's just possible it might even be a sensible move.
Right: I'm off to go and get myself the new Meta Ray Ban Vision glasses.
Wish me luck.
Tried on some belonging to a friend a few months ago, was surprised by how good the sound is considering the speakers are in the arms and not in the ears.
The real time subtitles seem like the killer application for me. When I'm in a crowded space, being able to "hear" people would be a real gamechanger.
How do you know they're subtitling the expected speaker? In a crowded situation, could be just random voices.
In May 2026, if the Tories get pummelled, but Labour gets eviscerated, will that give Kemi more breathing space?
The issue in May is how the Conservatives do against Reform. If there is some evidence that Reform is stalling against the Tories but making headway still against Labour, the Conservative Party should give her another year.
How would you identify that - reality is the Tories are going to lose a pile of seats (most of them) and reform are going to win a whole lot of councils..
The only upside is that our local elections are in 2027 by which time it should be obvious that Reforms local authority management isn't exactly improving things elsewhere,
London has all out elections next year most of England doesn't. Reform do worst in London and the Stamp Duty cut will go down well there.
Scotland and Wales have elections too but while Reform will do well in Wales they are unlikely to do as well in Scotland
Yes, the problem is these are local council elections and the last time I looked it wasn't Newham or Bromley or Richmond Councils who set the stamp duty rate. There's also the other small problem a) Labour might shoot the Conservatie fox and abolish Stamp Duty themselves and b) even if they don't, the implementation of the Stamp Duty abolition might not be until 2029 so why should people vote for a party promising something they have no power to enact for another three years?
Spurious logic at best.
Worth remembering you can still get a starter property in parts of London for under £300k which is the threshold for the levying of stamp duty on purchases for first time buyers. For example, there are one bedroom flats in East Ham and Beckton available for £200-£250k (10 years ago, they were barely £100k which tells you a lot).
I'd also add a lot of first time buyers in London are looking for rental property and anecdotally I think we are seeing some demographic and ethnic changes in my part of the world as a result of the new developments of leasehold flats going up in Barking and Ilford.
Just a question about the Badenoch proposal - is it only on the purchase of primary residences? I assume so but of course that won't stop those wishing to accumulate property buying them in the name of relatives etc.
Labour are of course whacking up taxes further in their Budget this autumn not cutting them. East Ham and Barking never elect Tory councillors anyway, it is voters in areas like Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, Richmond upon Thames Kemi will have targeted with her Stamp Duty cut and yes it is focused on primary residences
Why do you only ever look at policies for their political benefit, rather than what’s good for the country? Maybe that’s part of our national malaise.
Any party which ignores its own core vote and does not put its people first is doomed to extinction
Which is why as I pointed out in the first post of this thread - the Tories are headed for extinction... Since 2016 they've ignored their core vote to deliver Brexit regardless of everything else..
The reason the Tories are heading for extinction has nothing to do with Brexit imo.
Brexit and Boris Johnson's handling of Brexit are crucial to the current state of the Conservative Party. A Conservative Party without Spreadsheet Phil, Rory the Tory and Dominic Grieve is not the Conservative Party, and Johnson threw them out over Brexit.
The left's pet Tories.
I always find it rather amusing when non-Tories try and tell Tories what real Tories look like.
Transparently self-serving.
'We need to ensure those types of Tories prevail'
Piss off.
How rude!
Of course it's self serving. I don't mind a one nation Tory Government, but I don't want racist national socialist Tories ruining my country. My vote is the same value as yours.
I don't 'try to ensure' pet Labourites of mine 'prevail'. I state openly who impresses me and why, caveat it with what my biases are, and leave it there.
Didn't you PB Tories all spend three of your British pounds to vote for Corbyn and banish the Labour Party into perpetual opposition. Without the outrageous Boris Johnson premiership it would have.worked too.
Comments
Not sure it gains much to be honest.
Boris destroyed Boris all by himself and you need to move on
The lace of mist dissolves, where the creek meets the sea
Good morning from Mendocino
It would be funny if it wasn't so horrifying.
And Farage wants it here.
Having lived in Wales for 60 years the use of bi lingual communications just becomes the norm
It’s also necessary. I gotta be cycling through the redwoods by 10am
UK ministers take control of £10bn Lower Thames Crossing
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/12/uk-ministers-take-control-of-10bn-lower-thames-crossing
Ministers have stripped the government’s road-building agency of responsibility for a £10bn tunnel under the River Thames amid a drive by Keir Starmer’s cabinet to take tight control over important infrastructure projects for fear of cost overruns and delays.
Oversight of the Lower Thames Crossing – the UK’s largest planned infrastructure project – has been taken away from National Highways, and handed to the Department for Transport (DfT)...
In the middle the coast is lush. They have Sea otters. San Francisco is the main city here, barely known but a hidden gem. Set on a bay with magnificent scenery - check the “golden gate bridge” - it’s quite something
Inland you’ve got wine and bears and stuff. Then up here in the north it’s all mighty forests and Cioppino
If any PBers are looking for travel inspo, they could do worse. “California”. It’s on the far west coast of the USA
Oddly, she doesn't mention the victims were Democrats.
Bondi: "We've been living through a horrific cycle of political violence in this country ... night after night antifa wrecks havoc on the streets of our cities. In Minnesota, a gunman murdered a state lawmaker and her husband."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1976748023662231669
Honestly, I'd prefer the bike.
The DfT is quite possibly the single most incompetent bunch of meddlesome idiots in the country, so it's no surprise that now they've got pretty much the whole railway network in their grasp (well done Starmer) they've moved onto a power grab from Highways England. Not that Highways England is necessarily competent - they may well be utterly useless - but I'd bet good money that the DfT are worse.
Open grassland or beaches - that’s where you ride. Bikes are much better amidst trees
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15185013/Cabinet-minister-hints-two-child-benefit-cap-axed-boosting-handouts-3bn-Rachel-Reeves-prepares-soak-rich-30bn-tax-hikes-Budget.html
This has serious cost overruns written all over it now...
https://www.brewerygulchinn.com/
Jeez, California is EXPENSIVE
This is a charming hotel but $400 a night?!
Good job I never see a hint of a bill
Everyone else - Labour, LDs and Reform want it scrapped.
Yet the public overwhelmingly supports the cap.
Now Labour is going to scrap it at the Budget in November and it is going to substantially increase taxes.
This surely opens up a huge opportunity for the Conservatives. They can say they would have kept the cap - and if this was done there would be no need for the big tax rises.
Now of course only a small proportion of the tax rises will be to fund scrapping the cap. But never mind - the public doesn't do detail. There will be a very simple association to make - taxes are going up to fund benefit payments which are not supported.
Furthermore once the message starts sinking in it can then be widened to other areas - eg taxes are going up to fund big pay rises fior train drivers, net zero etc.
And the fires.
Fight! Fight! Fight!
Yesterday I just drifted from winery to winery in the sun. In one place they told me their main concern was “the bears in the vineyards”
At the Roederer estate they stuffed me to the gills with America’s “finest sparkling wine”. L’Ermitage
Not a bad drop. Then I drove - ahem - through the sun lanced redwood forests down to the coast. Absolutely sublime
But I still say OFGEM are worse than either.
Firstly, the whole Tory psychodrama around Brexit damaged the party’s reputation and credibility, while taking the government’s eye off all the balls that really matter to voters for the best part of five years.
Second, the Tory party prior was a coalition of pro- and anti-Europeans, which has been ruptured by Brexit and particularly the way Brexit was done, with no attempt at compromise. Tory remainers - both politicians and voters - have been driven away, creating the opening for the LibDems to break through in the south. Once, the party pragmatically embraced a spectrum of views - yet not supporting Brexit then became a disqualification; when that wasn’t enough, Johnson imposed the requirement to be a hard Brexiter; now even that isn’t enough and you have to renounce the ECHR as well - a conservative creation - in order to be a Tory politician. This drive to become a narrow church is the precise opposite to what a party that aspires to a majority needs to be doing under our voting system.
Third, like most positions based on ideology rather than pragmatism, as soon as anyone attempts to compromise with reality, there is always someone more extreme ready to capitalise on your apparent lack of fervour. Essentially this is the opening, provided almost inevitably by the last government, that Farage has ruthlessly exploited to steal away the more extreme conservative politicians and voters.
And of course, referendums are essentially divisive, and reframe the way people see their politics. After what happened to Scottish Labour after the Indyref, you’d think the Tories would have thought twice before diving into a referendum themselves.
Johnson won an 80 seat majority in 2019 with a new coalition including skilled white working class Leavers who have now gone to Farage and won an 80 seat majority with 43% of the vote. That was with a few diehard Remainer ex Tories going LD in areas like Surrey. The LD voteshare in 2024 was just 1% higher than they got in 2019, it was the split on the right between Tories and Reform that enabled the LDs to gain so many home counties seats from the Tories. The Tories were of course still in the ECHR under Johnson, it is only since he was removed Farage's surge has pushed Kemi to renounce it.
“The crowded cities”
What do you want? “Empty and desolate cities”?
That’s like complaining about “all the tree filled woods”. Or the “oceans of water going on and on”
The DfT does have the fairly unique privilege that it gets to stuff up lots of very expensive infrastructure - their staffing fiascos are fixable in a fairly short timeframe - may 5 years or so. Some of the unsuitable rolling stock they have ordered is going to be the bane of people's lives the next 40 years.
“The fashion for the young: turn to the radical right
The intellectual energy of new rightwing movements is drawing in young people”
FT ££
I TOLD you I was ahead of the game. Everyone is now copying me
https://www.ft.com/content/61d49fc5-75bc-47ab-8014-dcc44ae9f18d
While he ended free movement from the EU he did expand immigration elsewhere via the Boriswave which was his only real betrayal but even then that was just the impact of the points system which was in the 2019 manifesto anyway (and net immigration now starting to fall via the tighter visa wage requirements Rishi and Cleverly brought in hasn't benefited the Tories much either)
“In the panic about young people flirting with fascism, this difference is important. Because one of the main reasons the young are drifting not just to the right, but to the radical or even far right, is its intellectual energy — a fresh fizz of ideas about the ways in which we organise society. That appeals to young people looking for something to get excited about, and something that feels like a departure from — a rebellion against — what their stodgy liberal parents believe.”
“But the gender gap is not the only intra-generational divide: polling suggests another significant disparity between the older members of Gen Z, who finished school before the pandemic hit in 2020, and the younger ones, who finished afterwards. The latter group skews right more than their predecessors. In a poll by Yale University this year, 18- to 21-year-olds supported Republicans by nearly 12 points over Democrats, while those aged 22-29 backed Democrats by about six points”
It is sunset for the centrist Dads
So ultimately their failures…
The sort of October day that, as I’ve noted before on here, makes one want to listen to Gerry Rafferty’s Baker Street.
Sadly overcast and cool at the vineyard, where my attempt to scare the pheasants with a gas gun has fallen foul of the dog owning neighbours and met a premature end. So the grapes remain at the mercy of the flying rats. And the late season botrytis that the still cloudy days encourage. And the spotted wing drosophila. All of which makes one want to listen to nine inch nails.
First: justy 3.5% of privately owned residential properties change hands every year. Now, sure, some of this is because of the large rental market in the UK. But part of it also has to be that people are not selling properties that they could.
Secondly: the ONS publishes data on the number of spare bedrooms. Even while there is a shortage of housing generally, the number of underutilised (spare) bedrooms is at all time highs.
The only small snag being, I would then have to give them credit for anything that goes right. That would be...emotionally trying.
As others have said, the best hope for the Conservatives is probably to talk about the economy rather than immigration or the culture "wars".
Badenoch's commitment to replacing stamp duty tax isn't cost free and the proposed savings in welfare are doing a lot of heavy lifting given the increasing demands on the welfare budget from an ageing population but at least it's something different though cynics like me might ask whether if Stamp Duty is such a pernicious tax in 2025, it wasn't considered so pernicious during the last period of Conservative administration to warrant abolition?
If the aim is to restore the public finances to somewhere near balance, then we need much more detail as to how this is to be achieved. Given we are likely to borrow £150 billion this financial year, how would a Conservative Government seek to bring that down given I imagine increases in defence spending and presumably spending on law and order (Police and prisons) would also rise.
If the Badenoch/Stride approach is going to be similar to Starmer/Reeves in ruling out any form of increase on income tax and VAT, then where ar the cuts going to come from? Vague waffling about "welfare" butters no parsnips as someone once said.
Kettle.
Heat Pump.
Wish me luck.
What was this thing?
Anyway, all fine, you keep going with the flow, I'll continue to favour rigour and independence of thought. It's who I am.
Which tells me it's very likely more to do with getting past planning objections and legal actions.
It's just possible it might even be a sensible move.