Mayor Corbyn? – politicalbetting.com
Mayor Corbyn? – politicalbetting.com
Is a Jeremy Corbyn run for London Mayor locked in? You’d have to assume the Mamdani success would make it too tempting for him not to go for, and if it’s a four-way split he must be the favourite. Scary: our city could get a *lot* more decrepit and dangerous than it is right now!
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Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson
That TV twat on X (ok, could be almost anyone, Ant something, lives abroad)
Liz Trussssss
Rylan
The harder question is- who has political plausibility and actually wants the job?
Let us fetch it into the light once again, because: wow
BMG full figures with changes since their last poll from 29-31 July
Ref 35% (+3)
Lab 20% (-3)
Con 17% (-1)
LD 13% (nc)
Grn 7% (-1)
SNP 2% (nc)
PC 1% (nc)
Oth 5% (+2)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2025
If Khan doesn't run again that's a pretty poor list, to be a good Mayor you've got to be a fairly hardworking administrator. Note Johnson delegated the whole job while he shagged his way from Shoreditch to the West End...
For instance, James Cleverly has been mentioned a lot; Jenrick might fancy the Boris route to Downing Street; Boris (as boulay suggests); Dawn Butler has a better, more natural, walk-and-talk game than Jenrick imo, although she seems mainly to be campaigning against gambling outlets on high streets. Anyway, you get the picture. Best to wait for the runners and riders imo.
Tories. FAFO.
His premise for running was winning on a low share under FPTP but now Labour have gone back to the supplementary vote system his interested has waned.
I think (and have said) he's the Tories best (only) chance at Mayor of London, which would both protect Kemi from a Boris challenge, and reverse the narrative on the Tories.
I think they're lining up Cleverly for it, but Boris is a way better bet, to me.
1. The Mayor of London will no longer be able to be a sitting MP. That's fine for Corbyn standing, but he'd need to resign his seat to take the job if elected. Corbyn loves being an MP - it's all he's ever known and it's his world. It also makes it hard for him to "lead" his party - he cannot be his party's PM designate or whatever as Mayor of London (and for the same reason, Farage wouldn't stand).
2. The electoral system is returning to supplementary vote (which the original tweet seems to miss with reference to "a four-way split"). Extreme candidates are less well-placed on second preferences.
I think there are other problems with a Corbyn run. He's never shown any real interest in or views on municipal government - get him onto workers rights for Bolivian tin miners or whatever, and he won't shut up... electriification of the SL4 route and the pros and cons of floating bus stops, not so much. Contrast Ken Livingstone back in the day - similarly left wing but authentically interested in London. It's also quite a constrained role that requires compromise and deals with government - it just doesn't come with an ability to implement radical left ideas.
Whilst it could be a trading bet - if Corbyn's party does reasonably well in local elections in May, presumably his odds will come in. But I really don't see him running or winning if he does.
I suspect Khan can keep it even under national polling, but the candidate missing from the list is Zack Polanski, who could be a Mamdani type figure sweeping up both disenchanted lefties and Gaza related votes. He may well want a national platform for a GE campaign. Zoe Garbutt was the Green candidate last time and at 60/1 with odds boost worth a punt too.
Absolutely no evidence to support this whatsoever that I can see.
The country is clearly uniting around Nigel. I think the rest of us should do the same, even here on PB. I know most people on here are at least sympathetic to Reform, probably over 90%? - but we all find it hard to take the last step and give them full throated backing
It’s time to get over that vacillation. Nigel is our man. We all need to go out there and push them over 66.6% in the polls. Make them the default choice for patriots
Our country needs us
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1961707976101683378
If he'd thrown a 7, Vance would be in the Oval Office before you can say wanker
EDIT: you can still get 10/1
(very annoyed by Apple autocorrecting carked to carried. Bloody Americans).
There's no way they (or indeed the Lib Dems) come into the Mayoral conversation unless something very big happens nationally or they get a high-profile above-politics candidate.
The idea of Polanski as a Mamdani figure is pretty absurd in two ways. Firstly, he has nowhere near the communication abilities - Polanski is a fairly bog standard career politician, with no better than average charisma. Secondly, and probably more importantly, Mamdani is the candidate of the Democratic Party, which is the default party of choice for most New Yorkers. He beat a deeply flawed establishment Dem candidate in the primaries, which is clearly an achievement but also puts him squarely in the box seat. Polanski just doesn't have that - he'd have to insert himself into the debate as candidate of a party that do okay in parts of London but are very, very much a minority taste.
LibDems winning here!!!
It's not entirely baseless - the White House has conceded that he has some underlying issues, hence the swollen ankles, and there is definitely something the matter with his hand.
I suggested this yesterday.
Before Leon goes mad, that might actually mean Reform are doing even better if prior non-voters are being down-weighted too aggresively by the pollsters. Otoh, that could also be the case for the apathetic Left, with lots of voters simply stating no opinion at the moment.
You're allowed political positions, surely ? But if you're a civil servant you have to do your job impartially. The alleged facts of the case at the very least suggest that he might not be able to do so.
Wonder if it's going to be like Chernenko, with him very seriously ill but everyone pretending otherwise.
What should we call my party ?
The Mayoral election in London, as with the more significant GE, is still a way off and the world may look a very different place by then.
The locals next year are likely to give a more definitive sense of the state of London opinion. Currently, the Conservative vote (such as it was) from 2022 has been appropriated largely by Reform who could do well in the eastern and southern suburbs in particular. The key question is whether the much larger Labour vote will face similar pressures from the Greens, various pro-Palestine Independents and the Corbyn/Sultana Party (I nearly called it the New Party but that has unfortunate historical overtones).
A single slate of “left” anti-Labour candidates in Councils and Mayoral elections could throw the whole election wide open but conflicting and competing slates would likely ensure Labour prevails just as if Advance UK ran a slate against both Reform and the Conservatives, the latter would be the beneficiaries.
Corbyn is anathema in the Outer Suburbs but as history shows us, the best way to win is to let your opponents fight each other.
But neither are US and UK politics.
They both have the ability to appeal to the politically unengaged.
Corbyn as mayor is a pretty silly idea, but in the current climate it's not altogether impossible he has a shot.
Decent trading bet anyway.
Tell you what, it’s fine. Ayrshire can keep him.
There are also restrictions on people who can be Councillors. This is a quick AI summary wrt employment. And personal interest causing recusal etc. National Civil Service is (at first glance) OK. In England there is also I think much reliance on the Good Chap Theory.
AI: Employment-Related Disqualifications
Direct Employment by the Council:
You cannot be a councillor for a local authority if you are directly employed by that same authority or hold a paid office under it.
Other Local Authorities:
You cannot hold a politically restricted post for any other local authority, which can also prevent you from becoming a councillor.
Certain Public Sector Roles:
Employment in roles such as teachers in council-maintained schools or paid officers of joint boards, committees, or combined authorities can also disqualify you.
By then net immigration could have fallen further, the asylum hotels been shut, the Tories won back some voters from Reform and tactical voting against Farage on the rise
Otherwise I suggest we''re still in the political silly season. IMHO there's no way Corbyn will give up his nice, comfortable and above all, safe seat in Westminster for the job of Mayor. If Khan stands he'll be almost unbeatable unless the non-Khan vote coalesces around the second placed candidate. If we had the French system that would be possible, but we don't.
And on housing asylum seekers, I think there'll be one noisy row when Parliament gets back to work and then it'll all calm down. Those housed in Epping will have their cases assessed and if necessary appealed quite quickly and those who can work will do so, while those refused will find themselves back in the Pas de Calais if they're lucky or their home countries if not.
I was just thinking how badly Trump has reacted to having to go to the Supreme Court to be allowed to break multiple laws.
Of course, if he does cark it and Vance becomes Tosser in Chief, we can console ourselves with the thought he is at least not Mike Johnson.
(Edit, I'm aware he's not actually dead.)
Actually, I suppose it's perfectly feasible that the asylum hotels will be shut simply by granting absolutely everyone asylum, which appears to be what govvernment and state fundamentally want to do. But I don't imagine this driving Reform voters back to Labour.
preferences (to remove Khan) though which is a rarity in a
Tory now and has name recognition and his work on the London Olympics was well regarded in the city
In particular, people have personal political views. Chief Executives of councils generally vote. Permanent Secretaries generally vote. Bishops generally vote. If they are wise, they are discrete about their preferences, but they certainly have them, and they may be somewhat strong.
I don't think there's a particular risk that a local councillor's behaviour in a public sector job outside the local authority they work for is at greater risk of being affected by that role than is the case for others with political views - indeed, there is at least the transparency that their political views are a matter of public record.
I get the restriction on being a councillor in the authority for which you work as there is a clear conflict between doing a job and overseeing how that job is done. I also see some case (albeit weaker) for a small number of very high profile "politically restricted" roles which bar people from standing for election even for an unrelated authority due to the perception that brings. But some argue for a general ban on civil servants serving as councillors on any local authority - and I think that's muddled nonsense.
The current government are middle managers whose response to legal challenges is to agree to whatever the courts say. Respect for the law is all very well, but they are supposed to be *lawmakers*.
As the Supreme Court said on their judgement on the trans issue - “this is the current state of the law. If you want different, change it.”
A nice symmetry.
Police have some restrictions in place, after indications that demonstrators who were at Cheshunt were going to head to Epping. From the piccies on the Guardian live blog, it is spearheaded by Homeland Party people, who are 'British fascist' / white nationalist (word used in its correct definition - like the BNP. I'm not being rhetorical on that point).
Callum Barker is there, making a speech from the same pickup as used on the first round of Epping demonstrations, and the women in their "Save our Kids" pink Ts. It is imo more clearly a Homeland Party animated event than last time. There is also a visible "I am Tommy Robinson" flag.
I think that could be a risk for politicians, especially Cons, who turn up. It's potentially (low probability?) risky for Jenrick, as there are people there of an anti-semitic / holocaust denial stripe, and that could but him all over the Jewish press. He already managed to get himself pictured standing next to a major league former BNP / Combat-18 activist a couple of weeks ago last time he turned up. Combat-18 are a banned neo-Nazi group (18 = "AH").
I think it could be be an elephant trap for any national pol who turns up. I don't see Farage or other RefUKers appearing, as imo they are pivoting to the centre a little in their marketing, and won't want the association. Some of the GB News outriders or ex-staffers or those building a personal brand may go for a different tack (Martin Daubney?).
Guardian live blog:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/aug/29/latest-live-uk-politics-news-updates-asylum-hotels-labour-conservatives-reform?page=with:block-68b2146e8f08b0d009a2852d#block-68b2146e8f08b0d009a2852d
In my view, he decided to run in 2024 because he thought in January 2022, Johnson and the Conservatives would be re-elected at a 2024 GE and his opportunity would come in 2028/29 when he could re-enter Parliament and take a senior Cabinet position in the incoming Labour Government. He failed to foresee, as indeed most of us, the complete implosion of the Conservative Party under Johnson, Truss and Sunak which allowed Starmer to win in July 2024.
Now, Khan has to make a similar call - IF he thinks Labour will lose the next GE, he can stay London Mayor and in 2032, come back into national politics as the “new hope” against a failing Reform Government. He’ll be 62 then so will still have time on his side. He might think he can unite the anti-Reform opposition and condemn Farage and Tice to political oblivion.
IF, however, he thinks Labour will win next time, he would stand down, find a safe seat in London and join the second term Government as both a senior Minister and potential successor to Starmer.
It’s called ambition - most politicians have it, very few ever realise it.
Bluntly, if he has national ambitions at all they would be best served by re-entering Parliament asap, while a third term as Mayor would be a stretch for him.
At the moment Labour could do with just sending some Reform voters back to the Tories.
Reform on 35% means Farage likely wins even with some tactical votes for Labour.
Labour 26%, Reform 24% and the Tories 24% likely gives Labour most seats in a hung parliament
I’m enjoying imagining various Trumpites taking the Beria role, snivelling for mercy, summarily shot and then burned in a courtyard.
rottenborough Posts: 67,561
February 7
"Brian Stelter posted a December 9, 2017, quote from the New York Times:
"Before taking office, Mr. Trump told top aides to think of each presidential day as an episode in a television show in which he vanquishes rivals."
Stelter wrote: “I think about this quote a lot.” "
Heather Richardson email - 'Letters from an American'
When was the last time he took three consecutive days off?
https://x.com/cmclymer/status/1961651457628787148
They might well have done so if the Court of Appeal had agreed with the first instance decision that planning law dramatically restricted the ability to use asylum hotels (which Government want to phase out but on a timetable of their own devising).
Similarly, they essentially got the result they wanted on the trans issue - they aren't vocal on that but there is quite plainly no appetite to change the Equality Act to reverse the effect of the decision because the Supreme Court decision was clear and reasonably workable (whereas the alternative was "fuzzy" at best), and it's not a culture war front Starmer has any interest in reopening.
But, on topic, Labour still retains a plurality of seats in London, with 33 to 30 for Reform.
How times have changed
Health may be realistic though - he's clearly had a few issues with the hand make-up and so on, is notoriously non-transparent about his health, and is in a difficult position to say "a few days off for a minor op" given the battering he dished out to Biden on the matter. That could realistically be played reasonably close to their chests, particularly if it's not under general anaesthetic, and he's doing light duties (the odd document signed etc).
In fact, Felix Faure, French President, didn't. He collapses and died, after having sex with his mistress, straight after presiding over a banquet.
'If ruled a change of use then Tory councils could certainly refuse planning permission to such asylum hotels'
Please explain the grounds for refusal based on planning law, not politics
It's a rule I have lived by, and it has served me well.
J.D. “JUST DANCE” VANCE, WHO NOBODY LIKED UNTIL TRUMP PICKED HIM OUT OF THE "BARGAIN BIN" IN THE WALMART CLEARANCE SECTION, WENT ON FOX TO TRASH ME, GAVIN C. NEWSOM, AMERICA'S MOST POPULAR GOVERNOR. THE DANCING QUEEN CAN’T STOP! I LIVE RENT-FREE IN HIS HEAD (VERY TINY SPACE, ALMOST NO ROOM WITH "THE COUCH"). HE IS VERY WEAK... THE GUY CAN'T RUN, TAKES MORE "VACATIONS" THAN ANY VICE PRESIDENT IN HISTORY (AND WE’VE HAD SOME LAZY ONES!), GOT CAUGHT TAKING PHOTOS IN THE BATHROOM (VERY SICK!) ..
https://x.com/GovPressOffice/status/1961224278390477025
I know it’s mainly his smart youngsters doing it, but credit to the slightly unlikeable Newsom for letting them run with it.