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Trump is turning into Liz Truss but with more dictatorial behaviour – politicalbetting.com

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  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,803
    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,762
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The ‘woke’ language Democrats have been told to stop using
    Party risks ‘alienating voters’ with phrases ‘no ordinary person would dream of saying’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/08/25/the-32-woke-words-democrats-told-stop-using

    Yes "Be nice", "Don't be racist" and "Other people matter," are terribly alienating phrases for the average GOP voter.
    I doubt the Dems find this take amusing as - despite the unpopularity of Trump - they are shedding support even faster than the GOP

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/aug/25/us-democrats-collapse-in-support-labour-uk
    The US is a 2 party system though unlike the UK and most western democracies. so if Trump and the GOP are unpopular (and Trump currently has a 56% disapproval rating) the Democrats will almost certainly make gains in next year's midterms for Congress as the only opposition party

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5467568-trump-approval-rating-decline/
  • isamisam Posts: 42,358

    Interesting presser with FukU so far. Big on statements, light on details.

    I suppose they think, probably correctly, that people are so desperate for the boats to stop that statements promising extreme action are what the public want to hear. I don’t reckon it has dawned on some centrist/left types how insane it is that we have in excess of 50,000 illegal immigrants trying their luck and getting lucky each year. Not so long ago that number was considered on the high side for regular migration.

    In a way, being big on statements could be enough; if Reform said “We are going to execute anyone who arrives on a small boat the moment they get here” the details on how they intended to do so wouldn’t matter, the boats would stop
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,581
    edited August 26

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sitting in my sitting room with shelves cleared. Going away for a few days

    When I get back all the walls will be a different colour entirely. It’s a slightly unsettling feeling

    Turquoise? ;)
    I’ve gone for a very bold blue. Hick’s Blue. Slightly nervous

    But I’m bored of these polite greys and creams and greige. I’m not getting any younger and I want to turn my flat into something radical - opulently weird. Stage set for Act 3

    Halfway there but this is a big step

    I guess if I hate it I can always paint it back. There is that
    When I was in my early 20s I painted my living room a gorgeous rich shade of red. I loved that red.

    It was an awful choice for all four walls of a living room though.

    Sadly it is the case that the darker the colour you have on your walls the smaller and darker the room will feel. This is fine for a bedroom you won't spend much time in awake, but it's a mistake for any other room.

    You can get away with it on one or two walls, depending on how large your windows are, but any more than that will make you feel trapped in a small box.
    Yes it’s a risk. And that is the major risk

    However it’s more like three and a third walls. Because one wall is comprised of two enormous sash windows - floor to ceiling - which flood the room with light. And the room faces due south

    I’m relying on that, plus crisp white woodwork and a soft white ceiling, to save me from the oppressive jail feeling

    We shall see. Gulp! I won’t know until - inshallah - I walk back in here in about a week. I’ll know immediately

    An expensive mistake if it happens. I’ve done mock ups with ChatGPT and it looks great - but renderings often look great…

    OTOH I asked ChatGPT for advice on my hall and ChatGPT selected a colour - a kind of dusty pink - and I was unsure. Turns out to be a brilliant choice. Serene and airy and subtle

    🤷🏼‍♂️
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,803
    edited August 26

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062
    rkrkrk said:

    Cicero said:

    Its going to be a fun day in the markets.

    Trump is getting quite close to the consequences of his stupidity. US employment numbers already flashing red for a recession, now the absolute fuckwittery of the racist attack on the Fed (for, dear reader, that is what it is). Seems like US Inflation is going to be well into double figures within six months if this clown keeps going. That adds up to a nasty dose of stagflation, and with so many Us workers living pay check to pay check, there is going to be an awful lot of misery out there.

    Its a crisis in the US, certainly, could it be the mirror of the Soviet crisis 40 years ago?

    In the meantime the US has a Truss they can't get rid of.

    I think US would already be in recession were it not for the AI boom/bubble.

    Personally I'm surprised markets remain relatively relaxed about Trump. I'm trying to limit US exposure in my savings. AI exposure too, that one sure looks like a bubble to me.
    The US banking system essentially collapsed during Biden’s term. The sleight of hand bail out, and unprecedented fiscal stimulus kept things pumped through to election day. I’ve actually been astonished the music hasn’t stopped yet in 2025.

    Animal spirits from the new government and the cascade of AI investment doing the job for now. But it would be remarkable if there was not a major economic reckoning in Trump’s term.

    More generally, this website really has gone off the deep end with its TDS / FDS.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,803
    Hilarious. Torygraph asks about Angela Rayner and housing. Farage says that the Telegraph didn't object when Gove lived in that property...
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,877
    tlg86 said:

    Dopermean said:

    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Can I give a big shout out to the classy Newcastle fans who gave a sixteen year old boy abuse for scoring a goal.

    No wonder you're happy being run by a country who executes teenagers and murders dissents.

    #FreeIsak

    Sorry, you support a team that forces children to work ?
    I am given to believe that 16 is over the age of football consent. Provided that parental consent is given and the correct jumpers for goalposts.
    It's actually the season in which they turn 16. I think Arsenal wanted to play Max Dowman last season!
    AIUI they can't sign a professional contract until 17, so they're on apprentice terms. So it seems a big risk for the player, potential injury and loss of career earnings, does anyone know if these kids are covered for that?
    If not I'm surprised their parents/agents allow them to play.
    I guess you could argue that they're as likely to get injured playing youth football, but it must be a worry!
    A 16-year-old playing fully grown men at the same risk of injury as in a youth team? At first sight it doesn't look a comparable risk.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,803
    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,488
    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    They adore a Man of Action.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,491

    Hilarious. Torygraph asks about Angela Rayner and housing. Farage says that the Telegraph didn't object when Gove lived in that property...

    More importantly Farage is certainly throwing down the gauntlet to his opponents who have to come up with a real response if they do not want a Trump like Farage government, God forbid
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,803
    moonshine said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Cicero said:

    Its going to be a fun day in the markets.

    Trump is getting quite close to the consequences of his stupidity. US employment numbers already flashing red for a recession, now the absolute fuckwittery of the racist attack on the Fed (for, dear reader, that is what it is). Seems like US Inflation is going to be well into double figures within six months if this clown keeps going. That adds up to a nasty dose of stagflation, and with so many Us workers living pay check to pay check, there is going to be an awful lot of misery out there.

    Its a crisis in the US, certainly, could it be the mirror of the Soviet crisis 40 years ago?

    In the meantime the US has a Truss they can't get rid of.

    I think US would already be in recession were it not for the AI boom/bubble.

    Personally I'm surprised markets remain relatively relaxed about Trump. I'm trying to limit US exposure in my savings. AI exposure too, that one sure looks like a bubble to me.
    The US banking system essentially collapsed during Biden’s term. The sleight of hand bail out, and unprecedented fiscal stimulus kept things pumped through to election day. I’ve actually been astonished the music hasn’t stopped yet in 2025.

    Animal spirits from the new government and the cascade of AI investment doing the job for now. But it would be remarkable if there was not a major economic reckoning in Trump’s term.

    More generally, this website really has gone off the deep end with its TDS / FDS.
    It goes back further than Biden - the GFC broke the global economic model we'd all been using.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,631

    Interesting presser with FukU so far. Big on statements, light on details.

    So none of the above are just like all of the above
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Let’s just give passports to all 3m Eritreans, 19m Somalis and 40m Afghans and declare job done then.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,803
    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,491
    edited August 26

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
  • dunhamdunham Posts: 16

    Somebody cocked up on one of these mini-roundabout painted flags, and ended up with a Danish Flag.

    Was it in the old Danelaw ?
    More likely, given that Reform support in the recent 2025 English local elections was greatest north and east of the former Watling Street from Dover to Chester, i.e. in the former Danelaw. By contrast, Liberal Democrat support seems to be concentrated in the area covered by the historic Anglo-Saxon kingdom of Wessex, and to a lesser extent Mercia, although they do have some support close to Cambridge.

    Over the last few years, I have noted how electoral support in various countries often reveals ancient historic boundaries. For example, support for nationalist parties in Ukrainian elections between 1991 and 2013 was mostly concentrated in regions that were within the territory of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth before the brutal Chmielnicki revolt in 1648.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,803
    moonshine said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Let’s just give passports to all 3m Eritreans, 19m Somalis and 40m Afghans and declare job done then.
    Who is suggesting that?

    Two fundamental problems in our politics
    Polarised divisions where wazzocks insist that if you don't want x you MUST want y
    Crayon policies offering simple solutions to complex issues - slogans that can't be delivered
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,530
    Taz said:

    Interesting presser with FukU so far. Big on statements, light on details.

    So none of the above are just like all of the above
    Ultimately, they have to be.

    If you're giving a speech or writing a column, you can say anything. It's easy to ignore any inconvenient details that get in the way of what you want.

    Once you have any interaction with other people who also have agency, or with physical or arithmetical reality, it all gets much much harder.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,977


    I have just seen a clip of a press conference where Kristi Noem is announcing that they will paint the US/Mexican wall black as the Great Leader pointed out that black metal gets hotter in the sun and so it will be more effective at stopping illegals climbing it.

    They then went on to show clips of Noem and some workmen with paint rollers starting on it - it’s going to take hundreds of years, very amusing.

    This is of course terrible news for the millions of Mexicans who try and scale the wall in broad, hot, sunny daylight rather than those (all of them in reality) who do it at night when the effects of the sun will have worn off.

    Great stuff.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062

    moonshine said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Cicero said:

    Its going to be a fun day in the markets.

    Trump is getting quite close to the consequences of his stupidity. US employment numbers already flashing red for a recession, now the absolute fuckwittery of the racist attack on the Fed (for, dear reader, that is what it is). Seems like US Inflation is going to be well into double figures within six months if this clown keeps going. That adds up to a nasty dose of stagflation, and with so many Us workers living pay check to pay check, there is going to be an awful lot of misery out there.

    Its a crisis in the US, certainly, could it be the mirror of the Soviet crisis 40 years ago?

    In the meantime the US has a Truss they can't get rid of.

    I think US would already be in recession were it not for the AI boom/bubble.

    Personally I'm surprised markets remain relatively relaxed about Trump. I'm trying to limit US exposure in my savings. AI exposure too, that one sure looks like a bubble to me.
    The US banking system essentially collapsed during Biden’s term. The sleight of hand bail out, and unprecedented fiscal stimulus kept things pumped through to election day. I’ve actually been astonished the music hasn’t stopped yet in 2025.

    Animal spirits from the new government and the cascade of AI investment doing the job for now. But it would be remarkable if there was not a major economic reckoning in Trump’s term.

    More generally, this website really has gone off the deep end with its TDS / FDS.
    It goes back further than Biden - the GFC broke the global economic model we'd all been using.
    I remember as a young buck attending a presentation from an older colleague, spelling out why I would be facing the consequences of the GFC for the rest of my career. Seems he was right. But yes with each presidential term, the funny money has got worse and worse. Similar here.

    There was a brief moment with DOGE when it seemed like the descent might be paused. But the state is an addict, any available resources freed up in one place just get consumed to briefly satiate the spending addiction.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,881

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I’m surprised he even mentioned that issue . Before Brexit NI was just ignored and then we saw the fallout afterwards . It’s not just the GFA , the EU UK trade agreement and any future agreements especially in terms of security co-operation are predicated on the UK staying in the ECHR .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Its going to be a fun day in the markets.

    Trump is getting quite close to the consequences of his stupidity. US employment numbers already flashing red for a recession, now the absolute fuckwittery of the racist attack on the Fed (for, dear reader, that is what it is). Seems like US Inflation is going to be well into double figures within six months if this clown keeps going. That adds up to a nasty dose of stagflation, and with so many Us workers living pay check to pay check, there is going to be an awful lot of misery out there.

    Its a crisis in the US, certainly, could it be the mirror of the Soviet crisis 40 years ago?

    In the meantime the US has a Truss they can't get rid of.

    It’s a measure of your madness that you can write a sentence like this

    “It’s a crisis in the US, certainly, could it be the mirror of the Soviet crisis 40 years ago?”

    In what possible ways does the USA of 2025 resemble the USSR before the collapse of communism? The USA is the world’s most powerful economy, with major control over history’s most revolutionary technology. Its GDP per capita is racing away from the rest of the west, especially Europe. Unfortunately for us

    Inflation may be jumpy but Americans now out earn Europeans very substantially. Meanwhile Trump is making sure America does not get involved in any stupid pointless wars - unlike too many of his predecessors

    The USA is not the Soviet Union in 1985. You’re all completely bonkers
    You don't read the "potential civil war", "States seceding", "economic misery" stuff that is so much a feature of the media landscape? Its funny because quite a lot of that comes from your side of the political fence. Indeed won't you telling us about the absolute degradation of large parts of Appalachia and forecasting various doom laden scenarios, only a few months ago?

    I am not saying that the US will collapse, but it is certainly in a hell of a mess and Trump is setting the US economy up for something that will make the Lehman bankruptcy and the GFC look fairly normal.

    There is an awful lot of ruin in a nation. Doesn't mean it can't be ruined though.
    Spoiler: no states are going to secede from the USA. Nutter
    The citizens of an independent nation of California, the fourth largest economy in the world, would be much better off in that independent nation than having to fund a mass of ungrateful red states.

    I suspect Oregon and Washington would be interested in joining them, giving a great trade bloc of West Coast plus Mexico plus Canada.

    The more fascist Trump's tendencies get, the more attractive it will become.

    I mean, even you - a relatively sensible poster - are infested with this mental fungus. No, California is not going to secede
    Not saying it will. But there is a compelling case, that gets ever more compelling under Trump. It is quite akin to the case for the UK to Brexit.

    And who could believe that would ever happen?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,360
    edited August 26
    Nigelb said:

    Plastic patriot taking his case (sic) overseas.

    Nigel Farage will testify before US Congress on Sept 3, highlighting UK free speech concerns.
    Lucy Connolly’s imprisonment over an X post will be at the heart of his case.

    https://x.com/now_onearth/status/1959613396585971751

    Farage is so funny.

    They only need to lose one more MP, and there are enough piers in the constituencies they won for them all to do their own individual end-of-the-pier shows, since they would never do them together. (Skegness, Clacton, Great Yarmouth).

    (Good morning everyone.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,581

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,426
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    In case it hasn't been posted. Maybe the weather had something to do with it but when discussing a dip post-Rwanda announcement in 2022 someone on here told me it was never the weather. Now Labour's in charge maybe those rules have changed.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    The Times says it was the weather. I hadn’t noticed it was particularly bad. What do you think? Does the weather play a big part?

    Six boats packed with people launched from the French beaches on Monday after 212 asylum seekers made the crossing in four boats on Sunday. It represents a renewed surge after ten days of bad weather caused a lull in crossings.


    https://www.thetimes.com/article/e42d8fa0-a796-4cf9-8738-864b98a0d5ca?shareToken=d3d1030ac55488efd080d8c655b54a16
    Wind from the north and/or east for much of the previous week.
    So what we need to do is position some huge fans along the Kent coast.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,948
    isam said:

    Interesting presser with FukU so far. Big on statements, light on details.

    I suppose they think, probably correctly, that people are so desperate for the boats to stop that statements promising extreme action are what the public want to hear. I don’t reckon it has dawned on some centrist/left types how insane it is that we have in excess of 50,000 illegal immigrants trying their luck and getting lucky each year. Not so long ago that number was considered on the high side for regular migration.

    In a way, being big on statements could be enough; if Reform said “We are going to execute anyone who arrives on a small boat the moment they get here” the details on how they intended to do so wouldn’t matter, the boats would stop
    Given you're a REF supporter I wonder if this is pitch-rolling for the next big policy announcement.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,856
    Leon said:

    The gazette wants me to write ANYTHING I LIKE about America

    I have no ideas. Cmon PB give me ideas. You guys are good for that. No I’m not going to write about states seceding. That’s barmy

    Compare the current situation to the climate of Rome when Milo and Clodius were kicking off as proxies for Caesar and Pompey.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,833
    If we can get away with NI being in the single market but GB not, why can't we get away with NI being in the ECHR but GB not?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    I'm going to surprise myself saying it but I'd have confidence in Tony Blair getting a grip on the small boats issue, were he still PM.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,102
    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    Can the ECHR and UN treaties not still apply to NI? It's not as if the little boats are making it there....
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,977
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
    Grass.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,803
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
    Tout.


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,803
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    As always I am interested in the detail.

    We can pass any law we like. We can't compel an airline to carry deportees. Insurance was a live issue when Sunak tried to organise a Rwanda flight, so we know it is an issue.

    And what the F do you know, if that's your line? About insurance for airlines and aircraft leasing, specifically.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,040
    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    But that’s the actual issue - everyone in Europe wants the migrant parts of the ECHR sorted so the best approach would be to fix it as a whole instead of pointless problematic performance art that won’t work
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,426

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    If the Good Friday agreement falls under Farage, it will suit his pals in the TUV and the DUP. Trump won’t be bothered, either, if it upsets Democrat supporting Irish Americans.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,818
    edited August 26
    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    It's not the Protocol the ECHR is in but the Good Friday Agreement, which is an international treaty. If Farage wants to dump that, well, its a view I suppose. I just remember the status quo ante and am not that thrilled with the idea of round 2. Specifically:
    • Section 2 of Strand One: This section commits the British and Irish governments to incorporating the ECHR into the law of Northern Ireland and ensuring that relevant rights are protected.


    • The Agreement explicitly states that “the European Convention on Human Rights…shall apply in Northern Ireland”, and both governments commit to “take the necessary steps to ensure that the relevant rights are protected in law.” For the ECRH to apply in NI it has to be part of a country that is a signatory to the ECHR. You can't sign it for only part of your territory.

    While there are some protests about migration in Ireland they are nowhere near as loud as here and any protests against renegotiating or dumping the GFA, or restricting the open border, will, I can assure you, be exponentially bigger.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,881
    carnforth said:

    If we can get away with NI being in the single market but GB not, why can't we get away with NI being in the ECHR but GB not?

    Legally that’s not possible . The UK can’t withdraw from the ECHR and leave NI in it .
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    There’s an interesting political dynamic within Labour on this. Blair warned Starmer upon taking office that this issue would fatally compromise the party unless addressed. The noises from Rayner are that she’s not impressed with the government’s record. Blunkett calling for a “pause” in certain elements of the ECHR.

    We are actually approaching a fairly broad political consensus that the country needs to go hard as nails to stop this as soon as possible. But our wet blanket PM doesn’t have the backbone to do it.

    Imagine being in a natsec meeting as PM with the heads of Mi5/SIS.

    “What guarantees can you give me that we arent letting countless sleepers into the country”.

    “None prime minister”.

    “So what are you doing about it”.

    “Well as you know we adopt a risk based approach to monitoring, given resource constraints”.

    At which point our current PM is presumably concluding, on well that sounds fine. Anyway, what can I tax next?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,717

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    In case it hasn't been posted. Maybe the weather had something to do with it but when discussing a dip post-Rwanda announcement in 2022 someone on here told me it was never the weather. Now Labour's in charge maybe those rules have changed.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    The Times says it was the weather. I hadn’t noticed it was particularly bad. What do you think? Does the weather play a big part?

    Six boats packed with people launched from the French beaches on Monday after 212 asylum seekers made the crossing in four boats on Sunday. It represents a renewed surge after ten days of bad weather caused a lull in crossings.


    https://www.thetimes.com/article/e42d8fa0-a796-4cf9-8738-864b98a0d5ca?shareToken=d3d1030ac55488efd080d8c655b54a16
    Wind from the north and/or east for much of the previous week.
    So what we need to do is position some huge fans along the Kent coast.
    On holiday, I looked out on the array of channel wind farms and wondered whether we could entirely block the narrow bits of the channel apart from a couple of well patrolled shipping lanes.

    Given Reform don't seem to have any ideas other than to copy MAGA line for line, it's got to be a goer surely. Especially with the bonus that small boats being stopped by a woke renewable barrier across the channel would probably make many heads explode.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,948
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Cicero said:

    Its going to be a fun day in the markets.

    Trump is getting quite close to the consequences of his stupidity. US employment numbers already flashing red for a recession, now the absolute fuckwittery of the racist attack on the Fed (for, dear reader, that is what it is). Seems like US Inflation is going to be well into double figures within six months if this clown keeps going. That adds up to a nasty dose of stagflation, and with so many Us workers living pay check to pay check, there is going to be an awful lot of misery out there.

    Its a crisis in the US, certainly, could it be the mirror of the Soviet crisis 40 years ago?

    In the meantime the US has a Truss they can't get rid of.

    I think US would already be in recession were it not for the AI boom/bubble.

    Personally I'm surprised markets remain relatively relaxed about Trump. I'm trying to limit US exposure in my savings. AI exposure too, that one sure looks like a bubble to me.
    The US banking system essentially collapsed during Biden’s term. The sleight of hand bail out, and unprecedented fiscal stimulus kept things pumped through to election day. I’ve actually been astonished the music hasn’t stopped yet in 2025.

    Animal spirits from the new government and the cascade of AI investment doing the job for now. But it would be remarkable if there was not a major economic reckoning in Trump’s term.

    More generally, this website really has gone off the deep end with its TDS / FDS.
    It goes back further than Biden - the GFC broke the global economic model we'd all been using.
    I remember as a young buck attending a presentation from an older colleague, spelling out why I would be facing the consequences of the GFC for the rest of my career. Seems he was right. But yes with each presidential term, the funny money has got worse and worse. Similar here.

    There was a brief moment with DOGE when it seemed like the descent might be paused. But the state is an addict, any available resources freed up in one place just get consumed to briefly satiate the spending addiction.
    I suppose it's "TDS" to point out that Trump is blowing up the deficit as if money grows on trees?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,803

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    If the Good Friday agreement falls under Farage, it will suit his pals in the TUV and the DUP. Trump won’t be bothered, either, if it upsets Democrat supporting Irish Americans.
    Nigel Paul would be "chuffed" (as a Fukker voter would say) if the GFA and Brexit Withdrawal agreement fell apart as it's a fight he can pick with the 26 Counties/EU.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,615
    Pro_Rata said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    In case it hasn't been posted. Maybe the weather had something to do with it but when discussing a dip post-Rwanda announcement in 2022 someone on here told me it was never the weather. Now Labour's in charge maybe those rules have changed.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days

    The Times says it was the weather. I hadn’t noticed it was particularly bad. What do you think? Does the weather play a big part?

    Six boats packed with people launched from the French beaches on Monday after 212 asylum seekers made the crossing in four boats on Sunday. It represents a renewed surge after ten days of bad weather caused a lull in crossings.


    https://www.thetimes.com/article/e42d8fa0-a796-4cf9-8738-864b98a0d5ca?shareToken=d3d1030ac55488efd080d8c655b54a16
    Wind from the north and/or east for much of the previous week.
    So what we need to do is position some huge fans along the Kent coast.
    On holiday, I looked out on the array of channel wind farms and wondered whether we could entirely block the narrow bits of the channel apart from a couple of well patrolled shipping lanes.

    Given Reform don't seem to have any ideas other than to copy MAGA line for line, it's got to be a goer surely. Especially with the bonus that small boats being stopped by a woke renewable barrier across the channel would probably make many heads explode.
    Tidal power just needs to be rebranded as "the small boats blender".
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062
    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
    Grass.
    There’s thousands of posts on here a week, not sure how anyone but the obsessives can be expected to read each one. Not even sure what is meant by this. Is this related to the porn site identifier law or something? Why would the above poster even care?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,102
    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
    Grass.
    Yep and the only one I will grass on. @moonshine went private sometime ago when I called s(he) out on some, let's be kind, obnoxious links.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062
    kjh said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
    Grass.
    Yep and the only one I will grass on. @moonshine went private sometime ago when I called s(he) out on some, let's be kind, obnoxious links.
    Your attitude and behaviour are bemusingly close to stalker.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062
    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Cicero said:

    Its going to be a fun day in the markets.

    Trump is getting quite close to the consequences of his stupidity. US employment numbers already flashing red for a recession, now the absolute fuckwittery of the racist attack on the Fed (for, dear reader, that is what it is). Seems like US Inflation is going to be well into double figures within six months if this clown keeps going. That adds up to a nasty dose of stagflation, and with so many Us workers living pay check to pay check, there is going to be an awful lot of misery out there.

    Its a crisis in the US, certainly, could it be the mirror of the Soviet crisis 40 years ago?

    In the meantime the US has a Truss they can't get rid of.

    I think US would already be in recession were it not for the AI boom/bubble.

    Personally I'm surprised markets remain relatively relaxed about Trump. I'm trying to limit US exposure in my savings. AI exposure too, that one sure looks like a bubble to me.
    The US banking system essentially collapsed during Biden’s term. The sleight of hand bail out, and unprecedented fiscal stimulus kept things pumped through to election day. I’ve actually been astonished the music hasn’t stopped yet in 2025.

    Animal spirits from the new government and the cascade of AI investment doing the job for now. But it would be remarkable if there was not a major economic reckoning in Trump’s term.

    More generally, this website really has gone off the deep end with its TDS / FDS.
    It goes back further than Biden - the GFC broke the global economic model we'd all been using.
    I remember as a young buck attending a presentation from an older colleague, spelling out why I would be facing the consequences of the GFC for the rest of my career. Seems he was right. But yes with each presidential term, the funny money has got worse and worse. Similar here.

    There was a brief moment with DOGE when it seemed like the descent might be paused. But the state is an addict, any available resources freed up in one place just get consumed to briefly satiate the spending addiction.
    I suppose it's "TDS" to point out that Trump is blowing up the deficit as if money grows on trees?
    Of course not. Trump 1 was worse than Obama, Biden worse than Trump 1. Trump 2 jury is out but signs far from promising. I was referring more to the idea that the US is the USSR and will soon exhibit economic collapse and fragmentation of its political union.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,102
    edited August 26
    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
    Grass.
    Yep and the only one I will grass on. @moonshine went private sometime ago when I called s(he) out on some, let's be kind, obnoxious links.
    Your attitude and behaviour are bemusingly close to stalker.
    Proudly so of someone who posted links to QAnon post and linked to to a post that linked to overtly antisemitic posts with jew baiting.

    You haven't done so since so I haven't commented (so hardly stalking is it if for months and month and months I haven't commented), but if everyone else has to obey this rule you should do as well so we can see your past posts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,581

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    As always I am interested in the detail.

    We can pass any law we like. We can't compel an airline to carry deportees. Insurance was a live issue when Sunak tried to organise a Rwanda flight, so we know it is an issue.

    And what the F do you know, if that's your line? About insurance for airlines and aircraft leasing, specifically.
    DougSeal said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    It's not the Protocol the ECHR is in but the Good Friday Agreement, which is an international treaty. If Farage wants to dump that, well, its a view I suppose. I just remember the status quo ante and am not that thrilled with the idea of round 2. Specifically:
    • Section 2 of Strand One: This section commits the British and Irish governments to incorporating the ECHR into the law of Northern Ireland and ensuring that relevant rights are protected.


    • The Agreement explicitly states that “the European Convention on Human Rights…shall apply in Northern Ireland”, and both governments commit to “take the necessary steps to ensure that the relevant rights are protected in law.” For the ECRH to apply in NI it has to be part of a country that is a signatory to the ECHR. You can't sign it for only part of your territory.

    While there are some protests about migration in Ireland they are nowhere near as loud as here and any protests against renegotiating or dumping the GFA, or restricting the open border, will, I can assure you, be exponentially bigger.
    This is nonsense. The protests about migration in Ireland are, relatively, even fiercer than here

    The Irish regularly burn down asylum seeker housing. They had huge riots in Dublin on this issue. And it’s only getting worse

    It is highly likely the Irish would be keen to tighten human rights laws on this subject. Because it threatens the peace in the south
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,064
    Leon said:

    The gazette wants me to write ANYTHING I LIKE about America

    I have no ideas. Cmon PB give me ideas. You guys are good for that. No I’m not going to write about states seceding. That’s barmy

    For travel writing, surely you could talk about the extraordinary variety and beauty of its landscapes?

    I don't think even Russia or Brazil is quite so diverse. You have forest, mountains, arctic ice, tundra, prairie, coastline, swamp, desert, volcanic activity, Old Uncle Tom Cobleigh and all. In one country.

    In Maine or Mass you could easily imagine yourself in England. In California, in the Andes. In Arizona, deserts that make the Sahara look fertile. In West Virginia, forests side by side with coal mines. In Wyoming and Montana, the Plains.

    And that's just the landscapes. Consider the cities. New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington, New Orleans. All incredibly different and yet all the same country (of course, you also have dumps like Denver or Detroit).

    It is an amazing country.

    Shame about some of the people in it...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,948
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
    Grass.
    Yep and the only one I will grass on. @moonshine went private sometime ago when I called s(he) out on some, let's be kind, obnoxious links.
    Your attitude and behaviour are bemusingly close to stalker.
    Proudly so of someone who posted links to QAnon post and linked to to a post that linked to overtly antisemitic posts with jew baiting.

    You haven't done so since so I haven't commented (so hardly stalking is it if for months and month and months I haven't commented), but if everyone else has to obey this rule you should do as well so we can see your past posts.
    It's done! Moonshine's body of work is out of the Darkness and into the Light.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
    Grass.
    Yep and the only one I will grass on. @moonshine went private sometime ago when I called s(he) out on some, let's be kind, obnoxious links.
    Your attitude and behaviour are bemusingly close to stalker.
    Proudly so of someone who posted links to QAnon post and linked to to a post that linked to overtly antisemitic posts with jew baiting.

    You haven't done so since so I haven't commented (so hardly stalking is it if for months and month and months I haven't commented), but if everyone else has to obey this rule you should do as well so we can see your past posts.
    Having just read the exchange with TSE, I am very much of a mind as Leon was with Ismael. Your obsessiveness is weird and actually slightly frightening to me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    The gazette wants me to write ANYTHING I LIKE about America

    I have no ideas. Cmon PB give me ideas. You guys are good for that. No I’m not going to write about states seceding. That’s barmy

    For travel writing, surely you could talk about the extraordinary variety and beauty of its landscapes?

    I don't think even Russia or Brazil is quite so diverse. You have forest, mountains, arctic ice, tundra, prairie, coastline, swamp, desert, volcanic activity, Old Uncle Tom Cobleigh and all. In one country.

    In Maine or Mass you could easily imagine yourself in England. In California, in the Andes. In Arizona, deserts that make the Sahara look fertile. In West Virginia, forests side by side with coal mines. In Wyoming and Montana, the Plains.

    And that's just the landscapes. Consider the cities. New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington, New Orleans. All incredibly different and yet all the same country (of course, you also have dumps like Denver or Detroit).

    It is an amazing country.

    Shame about some of the people in it...
    Get's a trip to Hawaii and Alaska too. Just sayin'...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    Leon said:

    The gazette wants me to write ANYTHING I LIKE about America

    I have no ideas. Cmon PB give me ideas. You guys are good for that. No I’m not going to write about states seceding. That’s barmy

    I feel like the media haven't really covered the whole Socialism With Chinese Characteristics With American Chacteristics angle, there are a lot of points of convergence between China and the US that I definitely wouldn't have predicted 10 years ago.

    But I guess that's not what you need so, I dunno, something about woke and furries?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,360
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sitting in my sitting room with shelves cleared. Going away for a few days

    When I get back all the walls will be a different colour entirely. It’s a slightly unsettling feeling

    Turquoise? ;)
    I’ve gone for a very bold blue. Hick’s Blue. Slightly nervous

    But I’m bored of these polite greys and creams and greige. I’m not getting any younger and I want to turn my flat into something radical - opulently weird. Stage set for Act 3

    Halfway there but this is a big step

    I guess if I hate it I can always paint it back. There is that
    When I was in my early 20s I painted my living room a gorgeous rich shade of red. I loved that red.

    It was an awful choice for all four walls of a living room though.

    Sadly it is the case that the darker the colour you have on your walls the smaller and darker the room will feel. This is fine for a bedroom you won't spend much time in awake, but it's a mistake for any other room.

    You can get away with it on one or two walls, depending on how large your windows are, but any more than that will make you feel trapped in a small box.
    Yes it’s a risk. And that is the major risk

    However it’s more like three and a third walls. Because one wall is comprised of two enormous sash windows - floor to ceiling - which flood the room with light. And the room faces due south

    I’m relying on that, plus crisp white woodwork and a soft white ceiling, to save me from the oppressive jail feeling

    We shall see. Gulp! I won’t know until - inshallah - I walk back in here in about a week. I’ll know immediately

    An expensive mistake if it happens. I’ve done mock ups with ChatGPT and it looks great - but renderings often look great…

    OTOH I asked ChatGPT for advice on my hall and ChatGPT selected a colour - a kind of dusty pink - and I was unsure. Turns out to be a brilliant choice. Serene and airy and subtle

    🤷🏼‍♂️
    I will say that when you want it to be white or pink again, you will need to buy high quality paint.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,064

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK

    Is that a typo or does Frogface really want to deport every tourist and business traveller while letting the small boat arrivals stay?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,581
    This is handy. They can sort us out while they’re over here. A two for one

    French finance minister sees risk of IMF intervention if government falls - Reuters
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,581
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sitting in my sitting room with shelves cleared. Going away for a few days

    When I get back all the walls will be a different colour entirely. It’s a slightly unsettling feeling

    Turquoise? ;)
    I’ve gone for a very bold blue. Hick’s Blue. Slightly nervous

    But I’m bored of these polite greys and creams and greige. I’m not getting any younger and I want to turn my flat into something radical - opulently weird. Stage set for Act 3

    Halfway there but this is a big step

    I guess if I hate it I can always paint it back. There is that
    When I was in my early 20s I painted my living room a gorgeous rich shade of red. I loved that red.

    It was an awful choice for all four walls of a living room though.

    Sadly it is the case that the darker the colour you have on your walls the smaller and darker the room will feel. This is fine for a bedroom you won't spend much time in awake, but it's a mistake for any other room.

    You can get away with it on one or two walls, depending on how large your windows are, but any more than that will make you feel trapped in a small box.
    Yes it’s a risk. And that is the major risk

    However it’s more like three and a third walls. Because one wall is comprised of two enormous sash windows - floor to ceiling - which flood the room with light. And the room faces due south

    I’m relying on that, plus crisp white woodwork and a soft white ceiling, to save me from the oppressive jail feeling

    We shall see. Gulp! I won’t know until - inshallah - I walk back in here in about a week. I’ll know immediately

    An expensive mistake if it happens. I’ve done mock ups with ChatGPT and it looks great - but renderings often look great…

    OTOH I asked ChatGPT for advice on my hall and ChatGPT selected a colour - a kind of dusty pink - and I was unsure. Turns out to be a brilliant choice. Serene and airy and subtle

    🤷🏼‍♂️
    I will say that when you want it to be white or pink again, you will need to buy high quality paint.
    Now you’re all freaking me out. Aaaaaargh
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,360
    edited August 26
    Leon said:

    The gazette wants me to write ANYTHING I LIKE about America

    I have no ideas. Cmon PB give me ideas. You guys are good for that. No I’m not going to write about states seceding. That’s barmy

    Explore wheer the limits of free speech should be. Here's a hard case from the BBC this morning about a victim of child abuse from 20 years ago wanting Musk to stop links to her photos being circulated on twitter.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq587wv4d5go

    How does this relate to the "You can't shout FIRE in a crowded theatre" test?

    Also dhow does it relate to 4Chan, the current alleged victim of "UK Censorship" stopping circulation of such material on their website back in the day, and the claims about that from I think JD Vance.

    (I might be more inclined to go for how Trump has tried to limit free speech where it is about him if it was me, but it is not me.)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,012
    edited August 26
    Lord Ashcroft's latest polling, details over on Conservative Home, is quite interesting. Most of the findings are pretty Reform-friendly and poor for Labour and Conservatives. But towards the end, under "Who do you think would make the best Prime Minister?", in a head-to-head against Farage, Starmer wins by 40-30, with DK 30.
    When Badenoch is included, it's Starmer 31, Badenoch 10, Farage 25.
    Too early to write Starmer off, I think.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sitting in my sitting room with shelves cleared. Going away for a few days

    When I get back all the walls will be a different colour entirely. It’s a slightly unsettling feeling

    Turquoise? ;)
    I’ve gone for a very bold blue. Hick’s Blue. Slightly nervous

    But I’m bored of these polite greys and creams and greige. I’m not getting any younger and I want to turn my flat into something radical - opulently weird. Stage set for Act 3

    Halfway there but this is a big step

    I guess if I hate it I can always paint it back. There is that
    When I was in my early 20s I painted my living room a gorgeous rich shade of red. I loved that red.

    It was an awful choice for all four walls of a living room though.

    Sadly it is the case that the darker the colour you have on your walls the smaller and darker the room will feel. This is fine for a bedroom you won't spend much time in awake, but it's a mistake for any other room.

    You can get away with it on one or two walls, depending on how large your windows are, but any more than that will make you feel trapped in a small box.
    Yes it’s a risk. And that is the major risk

    However it’s more like three and a third walls. Because one wall is comprised of two enormous sash windows - floor to ceiling - which flood the room with light. And the room faces due south

    I’m relying on that, plus crisp white woodwork and a soft white ceiling, to save me from the oppressive jail feeling

    We shall see. Gulp! I won’t know until - inshallah - I walk back in here in about a week. I’ll know immediately

    An expensive mistake if it happens. I’ve done mock ups with ChatGPT and it looks great - but renderings often look great…

    OTOH I asked ChatGPT for advice on my hall and ChatGPT selected a colour - a kind of dusty pink - and I was unsure. Turns out to be a brilliant choice. Serene and airy and subtle

    🤷🏼‍♂️
    I will say that when you want it to be white or pink again, you will need to buy high quality paint.
    Now you’re all freaking me out. Aaaaaargh
    For what it’s worth, repainting a dark red feature wall I inherited from the last owner (to off white) was the cheapest and most impactful furnishing change I’ve ever done.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,064
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sitting in my sitting room with shelves cleared. Going away for a few days

    When I get back all the walls will be a different colour entirely. It’s a slightly unsettling feeling

    Turquoise? ;)
    I’ve gone for a very bold blue. Hick’s Blue. Slightly nervous

    But I’m bored of these polite greys and creams and greige. I’m not getting any younger and I want to turn my flat into something radical - opulently weird. Stage set for Act 3

    Halfway there but this is a big step

    I guess if I hate it I can always paint it back. There is that
    When I was in my early 20s I painted my living room a gorgeous rich shade of red. I loved that red.

    It was an awful choice for all four walls of a living room though.

    Sadly it is the case that the darker the colour you have on your walls the smaller and darker the room will feel. This is fine for a bedroom you won't spend much time in awake, but it's a mistake for any other room.

    You can get away with it on one or two walls, depending on how large your windows are, but any more than that will make you feel trapped in a small box.
    Yes it’s a risk. And that is the major risk

    However it’s more like three and a third walls. Because one wall is comprised of two enormous sash windows - floor to ceiling - which flood the room with light. And the room faces due south

    I’m relying on that, plus crisp white woodwork and a soft white ceiling, to save me from the oppressive jail feeling

    We shall see. Gulp! I won’t know until - inshallah - I walk back in here in about a week. I’ll know immediately

    An expensive mistake if it happens. I’ve done mock ups with ChatGPT and it looks great - but renderings often look great…

    OTOH I asked ChatGPT for advice on my hall and ChatGPT selected a colour - a kind of dusty pink - and I was unsure. Turns out to be a brilliant choice. Serene and airy and subtle

    🤷🏼‍♂️
    I will say that when you want it to be white or pink again, you will need to buy high quality paint.
    Now you’re all freaking me out. Aaaaaargh
    A decent primer/sealant would do the job with an ordinary paint, but they're not terribly cheap either.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    This is an interesting article about wage caps, post Black Death.
    Is it kosher history ? @ydoethur ?

    Age of Invention: The Century-Long Depression
    https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-the-century-long
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062

    Lord Ashcroft's latest polling, details over on Conservative Home, is quite interesting. Most of the findings are pretty Reform-friendly and poor for Labour and Conservatives. But towards the end, under "Who do you think would make the best Prime Minister?", in a head-to-head against Farage, Starmer wins by 40-30, with DK 30.
    When Badenoch is included, it's Starmer 31, Badenoch 10, Farage 25.
    Too early to write Starmer off, I think.

    Elon Musk is arguably the superior assessor of talent on earth today. I have little reason to question his conclusion on Farage that “this guy doesn’t have what it takes”. He is the NOTA / a curse on all your houses choice. Which I suppose suits him, if expectations of his ability to deliver in office are very low.

    Cut spending/taxes, tighten the border, crack down on the most visible cases of property theft. They’re actually quite achievable if you have the will. But does he…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    The gazette wants me to write ANYTHING I LIKE about America

    I have no ideas. Cmon PB give me ideas. You guys are good for that. No I’m not going to write about states seceding. That’s barmy

    Anything you like so long as it's not too critical of Donald Trump, I think you mean.
    Actually I would happily criticise Trump - he’s a buffoon

    However that’s not a very original idea. “Trump is a buffoon”. That’s not going to harvest the clicks
    How about Kamala was Cassandra ?

    Kamala Harris at her closing campaign rally:

    "Donald Trump intends to use the United States Military against American citizens who simply disagree with him."

    https://x.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1959668963995996162
    Pritzker: So, in case there was any doubt as to the motivation behind Trump's military occupations, take note. 13 of the top 20 cities in homicide rates have Republican governors. None of these cities is Chicago. Eight of the top ten states with the highest homicide rates are led by Republicans. None of those states is Illinois

    Memphis, Tennessee. Hattiesburg, Mississippi have higher crime rates than Chicago. And yet Donald Trump is sending troops here and not there. Ask yourself why. If Donald Trump was actually serious about fighting crime in cities like Chicago, he, along with his congressional Republicans, would not be cutting over $800 million in public safety and crime prevention grants nationally, including cutting $158 million in funding to Illinois…

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1960083010503790676
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,120

    Leon said:

    The gazette wants me to write ANYTHING I LIKE about America

    I have no ideas. Cmon PB give me ideas. You guys are good for that. No I’m not going to write about states seceding. That’s barmy

    I feel like the media haven't really covered the whole Socialism With Chinese Characteristics With American Chacteristics angle, there are a lot of points of convergence between China and the US that I definitely wouldn't have predicted 10 years ago.

    But I guess that's not what you need so, I dunno, something about woke and furries?
    Been covered a bit. From a briefing by The Atlantic:

    "The self-described socialist Senator Bernie Sanders is, in a rare case of agreement with Trump, on board with the Intel deal, but the arrangement has enraged some Trump allies. “This is actual socialism happening by a Republican administration,” Erick Erickson, the veteran conservative commentator, fulminated. “You may be comfortable with socialism. You may decide you like socialism, because someone from the Trump administration wants socialism, but my God, people, what have we been fighting for for the last decade?”"

    The extension of the federal govt into the states and its bullying of private companies is quite a thing. But Trump is a great one for favours, and "deals", and special treatments. And then the tariffs! Hardly laissez faire. Kleptocracy meets socialism.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,818
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    As always I am interested in the detail.

    We can pass any law we like. We can't compel an airline to carry deportees. Insurance was a live issue when Sunak tried to organise a Rwanda flight, so we know it is an issue.

    And what the F do you know, if that's your line? About insurance for airlines and aircraft leasing, specifically.
    DougSeal said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    It's not the Protocol the ECHR is in but the Good Friday Agreement, which is an international treaty. If Farage wants to dump that, well, its a view I suppose. I just remember the status quo ante and am not that thrilled with the idea of round 2. Specifically:
    • Section 2 of Strand One: This section commits the British and Irish governments to incorporating the ECHR into the law of Northern Ireland and ensuring that relevant rights are protected.


    • The Agreement explicitly states that “the European Convention on Human Rights…shall apply in Northern Ireland”, and both governments commit to “take the necessary steps to ensure that the relevant rights are protected in law.” For the ECRH to apply in NI it has to be part of a country that is a signatory to the ECHR. You can't sign it for only part of your territory.

    While there are some protests about migration in Ireland they are nowhere near as loud as here and any protests against renegotiating or dumping the GFA, or restricting the open border, will, I can assure you, be exponentially bigger.
    This is nonsense. The protests about migration in Ireland are, relatively, even fiercer than here

    The Irish regularly burn down asylum seeker housing. They had huge riots in Dublin on this issue. And it’s only getting worse

    It is highly likely the Irish would be keen to tighten human rights laws on this subject. Because it threatens the peace in the south
    No. There have been three major incidents in Dublin. These were the November 2023 Dublin Riots (large-scale riot, protesters clashing with police, looting shops, and setting vehicles on fire, 34 people were arrested, and several officers injured), the July 2024 Coolock Protests (this was the arson attack you refer to, although the underlying demonstration was against plans to convert an industrial estate, and the building burned hadn't been converted yet, let alone opened) and the September 2024 Anti-Migrant Protests.

    Outside Dublin, in the 26-counties anyway, the two notable incidents were in Newtownmountkennedy (attempted arson against a vacant building) and Ballaghaderreen, both last year.

    That is not "regularly [burning] down asylum seeker housing". It is, charitably, attempting to burn down proposed asylum seeker housing on 2 occasions. If you compare that with the violence we had last summer, with buildings containing arson attempts on buildings containing actual people, this is small beer.

    Anyway, even if you disagree, it was small part of my post.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,948
    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Cicero said:

    Its going to be a fun day in the markets.

    Trump is getting quite close to the consequences of his stupidity. US employment numbers already flashing red for a recession, now the absolute fuckwittery of the racist attack on the Fed (for, dear reader, that is what it is). Seems like US Inflation is going to be well into double figures within six months if this clown keeps going. That adds up to a nasty dose of stagflation, and with so many Us workers living pay check to pay check, there is going to be an awful lot of misery out there.

    Its a crisis in the US, certainly, could it be the mirror of the Soviet crisis 40 years ago?

    In the meantime the US has a Truss they can't get rid of.

    I think US would already be in recession were it not for the AI boom/bubble.

    Personally I'm surprised markets remain relatively relaxed about Trump. I'm trying to limit US exposure in my savings. AI exposure too, that one sure looks like a bubble to me.
    The US banking system essentially collapsed during Biden’s term. The sleight of hand bail out, and unprecedented fiscal stimulus kept things pumped through to election day. I’ve actually been astonished the music hasn’t stopped yet in 2025.

    Animal spirits from the new government and the cascade of AI investment doing the job for now. But it would be remarkable if there was not a major economic reckoning in Trump’s term.

    More generally, this website really has gone off the deep end with its TDS / FDS.
    It goes back further than Biden - the GFC broke the global economic model we'd all been using.
    I remember as a young buck attending a presentation from an older colleague, spelling out why I would be facing the consequences of the GFC for the rest of my career. Seems he was right. But yes with each presidential term, the funny money has got worse and worse. Similar here.

    There was a brief moment with DOGE when it seemed like the descent might be paused. But the state is an addict, any available resources freed up in one place just get consumed to briefly satiate the spending addiction.
    I suppose it's "TDS" to point out that Trump is blowing up the deficit as if money grows on trees?
    Of course not. Trump 1 was worse than Obama, Biden worse than Trump 1. Trump 2 jury is out but signs far from promising. I was referring more to the idea that the US is the USSR and will soon exhibit economic collapse and fragmentation of its political union.
    Predictions of that sort usually aren't borne out, this is true. But this is unchartered territory for the US. You've got a volatile delusional narcissist intent on running the country as a personal fiefdom. As against that you've got a 236 year old Constitution, the ubiquitous and mighty dollar, and a juggernaut of an economy. Place your bets.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,695

    Leon said:

    The gazette wants me to write ANYTHING I LIKE about America

    I have no ideas. Cmon PB give me ideas. You guys are good for that. No I’m not going to write about states seceding. That’s barmy

    I feel like the media haven't really covered the whole Socialism With Chinese Characteristics With American Chacteristics angle, there are a lot of points of convergence between China and the US that I definitely wouldn't have predicted 10 years ago.

    But I guess that's not what you need so, I dunno, something about woke and furries?
    Beware Reds under the bed!

    Republican color[sic] is Red!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,581
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sitting in my sitting room with shelves cleared. Going away for a few days

    When I get back all the walls will be a different colour entirely. It’s a slightly unsettling feeling

    Turquoise? ;)
    I’ve gone for a very bold blue. Hick’s Blue. Slightly nervous

    But I’m bored of these polite greys and creams and greige. I’m not getting any younger and I want to turn my flat into something radical - opulently weird. Stage set for Act 3

    Halfway there but this is a big step

    I guess if I hate it I can always paint it back. There is that
    When I was in my early 20s I painted my living room a gorgeous rich shade of red. I loved that red.

    It was an awful choice for all four walls of a living room though.

    Sadly it is the case that the darker the colour you have on your walls the smaller and darker the room will feel. This is fine for a bedroom you won't spend much time in awake, but it's a mistake for any other room.

    You can get away with it on one or two walls, depending on how large your windows are, but any more than that will make you feel trapped in a small box.
    Yes it’s a risk. And that is the major risk

    However it’s more like three and a third walls. Because one wall is comprised of two enormous sash windows - floor to ceiling - which flood the room with light. And the room faces due south

    I’m relying on that, plus crisp white woodwork and a soft white ceiling, to save me from the oppressive jail feeling

    We shall see. Gulp! I won’t know until - inshallah - I walk back in here in about a week. I’ll know immediately

    An expensive mistake if it happens. I’ve done mock ups with ChatGPT and it looks great - but renderings often look great…

    OTOH I asked ChatGPT for advice on my hall and ChatGPT selected a colour - a kind of dusty pink - and I was unsure. Turns out to be a brilliant choice. Serene and airy and subtle

    🤷🏼‍♂️
    I will say that when you want it to be white or pink again, you will need to buy high quality paint.
    Now you’re all freaking me out. Aaaaaargh
    A decent primer/sealant would do the job with an ordinary paint, but they're not terribly cheap either.
    I’m gonna be living in a fucking inkwell

    WHAT HAVE I DONE
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701
    nico67 said:

    carnforth said:

    If we can get away with NI being in the single market but GB not, why can't we get away with NI being in the ECHR but GB not?

    Legally that’s not possible . The UK can’t withdraw from the ECHR and leave NI in it .
    Let's do it and see if they litigate. It would mean losing NI from the ECHR if they do. Cutting off nose and all that...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,046
    edited August 26
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    The USSR collapsed because it was an economic car crash, with a history of gulags and oppression and dissent, and it was falling ever further behind its rivals and unable to deliver basic living standards to its people

    This is not the USA

    Ok, let's look at the list

    economic car crash - Trump is well on his way to that

    gulags - check

    oppression and dissent - check

    falling ever further behind its rivals - see below*

    unable to deliver basic living standards to its people - working on it, assuming you mean healthcare and education for example

    *Japan Post just announced they will no longer deliver mail to the United States, joining Germany, Austria, Denmark, Italy, France, and Sweden.
    Among all the other things, "The President has screwed things up so badly that the world's other rich countries won't deliver mail to us anymore" really should end it immediately.

    So, yes, the USA is not like the USSR, yet, but Trump badly wants it to be.

    Hang on, not all mail surely, but things being sent in parcels and packages etc. Because of the tariff situation, and crucially the cancellation of an exemption for low-total-value packages.

    So letters etc. aren't covered. But in this modern era, what letters? ... are things like a subscription to a mag such as the Speccy or the Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society covered by the new rules?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580

    Leon said:

    The gazette wants me to write ANYTHING I LIKE about America

    I have no ideas. Cmon PB give me ideas. You guys are good for that. No I’m not going to write about states seceding. That’s barmy

    I feel like the media haven't really covered the whole Socialism With Chinese Characteristics With American Chacteristics angle, there are a lot of points of convergence between China and the US that I definitely wouldn't have predicted 10 years ago.

    But I guess that's not what you need so, I dunno, something about woke and furries?
    Been covered a bit. From a briefing by The Atlantic:

    "The self-described socialist Senator Bernie Sanders is, in a rare case of agreement with Trump, on board with the Intel deal, but the arrangement has enraged some Trump allies. “This is actual socialism happening by a Republican administration,” Erick Erickson, the veteran conservative commentator, fulminated. “You may be comfortable with socialism. You may decide you like socialism, because someone from the Trump administration wants socialism, but my God, people, what have we been fighting for for the last decade?”"

    The extension of the federal govt into the states and its bullying of private companies is quite a thing. But Trump is a great one for favours, and "deals", and special treatments. And then the tariffs! Hardly laissez faire. Kleptocracy meets socialism.
    This is what I meant by it's being within the normal range of politics, in contrast with the unconstitutional furrow Trump is ploughing with much of the rest of his policies.

    Yes, it is indeed verging on "socialism", and such state control of industry is part and parcel of what authoritarian regimes like Orban's practice, but in of itself, it's perfectly legitimate politics.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,881
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    As always I am interested in the detail.

    We can pass any law we like. We can't compel an airline to carry deportees. Insurance was a live issue when Sunak tried to organise a Rwanda flight, so we know it is an issue.

    And what the F do you know, if that's your line? About insurance for airlines and aircraft leasing, specifically.
    DougSeal said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    It's not the Protocol the ECHR is in but the Good Friday Agreement, which is an international treaty. If Farage wants to dump that, well, its a view I suppose. I just remember the status quo ante and am not that thrilled with the idea of round 2. Specifically:
    • Section 2 of Strand One: This section commits the British and Irish governments to incorporating the ECHR into the law of Northern Ireland and ensuring that relevant rights are protected.


    • The Agreement explicitly states that “the European Convention on Human Rights…shall apply in Northern Ireland”, and both governments commit to “take the necessary steps to ensure that the relevant rights are protected in law.” For the ECRH to apply in NI it has to be part of a country that is a signatory to the ECHR. You can't sign it for only part of your territory.

    While there are some protests about migration in Ireland they are nowhere near as loud as here and any protests against renegotiating or dumping the GFA, or restricting the open border, will, I can assure you, be exponentially bigger.
    This is nonsense. The protests about migration in Ireland are, relatively, even fiercer than here

    The Irish regularly burn down asylum seeker housing. They had huge riots in Dublin on this issue. And it’s only getting worse

    It is highly likely the Irish would be keen to tighten human rights laws on this subject. Because it threatens the peace in the south
    There is huge public support for the GFA in Ireland and you need them to be willing to re-negotiate that. You’d have to do that before the UK could leave the ECHR otherwise you’d breach the GFA and the EU UK trade agreement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sitting in my sitting room with shelves cleared. Going away for a few days

    When I get back all the walls will be a different colour entirely. It’s a slightly unsettling feeling

    Turquoise? ;)
    I’ve gone for a very bold blue. Hick’s Blue. Slightly nervous

    But I’m bored of these polite greys and creams and greige. I’m not getting any younger and I want to turn my flat into something radical - opulently weird. Stage set for Act 3

    Halfway there but this is a big step

    I guess if I hate it I can always paint it back. There is that
    When I was in my early 20s I painted my living room a gorgeous rich shade of red. I loved that red.

    It was an awful choice for all four walls of a living room though.

    Sadly it is the case that the darker the colour you have on your walls the smaller and darker the room will feel. This is fine for a bedroom you won't spend much time in awake, but it's a mistake for any other room.

    You can get away with it on one or two walls, depending on how large your windows are, but any more than that will make you feel trapped in a small box.
    Yes it’s a risk. And that is the major risk

    However it’s more like three and a third walls. Because one wall is comprised of two enormous sash windows - floor to ceiling - which flood the room with light. And the room faces due south

    I’m relying on that, plus crisp white woodwork and a soft white ceiling, to save me from the oppressive jail feeling

    We shall see. Gulp! I won’t know until - inshallah - I walk back in here in about a week. I’ll know immediately

    An expensive mistake if it happens. I’ve done mock ups with ChatGPT and it looks great - but renderings often look great…

    OTOH I asked ChatGPT for advice on my hall and ChatGPT selected a colour - a kind of dusty pink - and I was unsure. Turns out to be a brilliant choice. Serene and airy and subtle

    🤷🏼‍♂️
    I will say that when you want it to be white or pink again, you will need to buy high quality paint.
    Now you’re all freaking me out. Aaaaaargh
    A decent primer/sealant would do the job with an ordinary paint, but they're not terribly cheap either.
    I’m gonna be living in a fucking inkwell

    WHAT HAVE I DONE
    Isn't that entirely appropriate for a Grub Street hack* ?

    *Not really intended as an insult, but I couldn't think of a politer term.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,828
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    There’s an interesting political dynamic within Labour on this. Blair warned Starmer upon taking office that this issue would fatally compromise the party unless addressed. The noises from Rayner are that she’s not impressed with the government’s record. Blunkett calling for a “pause” in certain elements of the ECHR.

    We are actually approaching a fairly broad political consensus that the country needs to go hard as nails to stop this as soon as possible. But our wet blanket PM doesn’t have the backbone to do it.

    Imagine being in a natsec meeting as PM with the heads of Mi5/SIS.

    “What guarantees can you give me that we arent letting countless sleepers into the country”.

    “None prime minister”.

    “So what are you doing about it”.

    “Well as you know we adopt a risk based approach to monitoring, given resource constraints”.

    At which point our current PM is presumably concluding, on well that sounds fine. Anyway, what can I tax next?
    The problem is (again) that Starmer is a lawyer who thinks in terms of the law, not in terms of action.

    If the (UK) supreme court told him to tow the boats, he’d do it in a heartbeat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,064
    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting article about wage caps, post Black Death.
    Is it kosher history ? @ydoethur ?

    Age of Invention: The Century-Long Depression
    https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-the-century-long

    Yes, although it's a bit narrow because it doesn't consider the wide regional variations that there were.

    For example, it overlooks this classic article on the situation in Durham:

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/651008 (should be available with a Google sign in)

    And also the major difference there were in city economies, which did boom after the Black Death due to the vast amount of coin in circulation and limits to what it could be spent on:

    https://www2.glos.ac.uk/bgas/tbgas/v103/bg103149.pdf

    But the general thrust of it is correct. There were innumerable attempts, down to the end of Elizabeth's reign and arguably the Civil War, to control the labour supply and all of them were distinctly unfortunate in their effects.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,881

    nico67 said:

    carnforth said:

    If we can get away with NI being in the single market but GB not, why can't we get away with NI being in the ECHR but GB not?

    Legally that’s not possible . The UK can’t withdraw from the ECHR and leave NI in it .
    Let's do it and see if they litigate. It would mean losing NI from the ECHR if they do. Cutting off nose and all that...
    This is all sounding very much like pre Brexit when Leave ignored the issues around NI . Legally it’s not possible to just leave NI in the ECHR if the UK leaves . You can’t just make up international law .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701
    edited August 26
    Leon, surely the biggest travel story in the world right now is that no-one wants to go to the US. Go to some resorts - find out if its true, speak to those who have braved it, see if they had worries, whether they still have worries having made the trip. Is it cheaper/more choice/smaller queues at Disneyland? Is it a brilliant time to travel there (depending on what you write might get you the Presidential Medal of Freedom....).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,581
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sitting in my sitting room with shelves cleared. Going away for a few days

    When I get back all the walls will be a different colour entirely. It’s a slightly unsettling feeling

    Turquoise? ;)
    I’ve gone for a very bold blue. Hick’s Blue. Slightly nervous

    But I’m bored of these polite greys and creams and greige. I’m not getting any younger and I want to turn my flat into something radical - opulently weird. Stage set for Act 3

    Halfway there but this is a big step

    I guess if I hate it I can always paint it back. There is that
    When I was in my early 20s I painted my living room a gorgeous rich shade of red. I loved that red.

    It was an awful choice for all four walls of a living room though.

    Sadly it is the case that the darker the colour you have on your walls the smaller and darker the room will feel. This is fine for a bedroom you won't spend much time in awake, but it's a mistake for any other room.

    You can get away with it on one or two walls, depending on how large your windows are, but any more than that will make you feel trapped in a small box.
    Yes it’s a risk. And that is the major risk

    However it’s more like three and a third walls. Because one wall is comprised of two enormous sash windows - floor to ceiling - which flood the room with light. And the room faces due south

    I’m relying on that, plus crisp white woodwork and a soft white ceiling, to save me from the oppressive jail feeling

    We shall see. Gulp! I won’t know until - inshallah - I walk back in here in about a week. I’ll know immediately

    An expensive mistake if it happens. I’ve done mock ups with ChatGPT and it looks great - but renderings often look great…

    OTOH I asked ChatGPT for advice on my hall and ChatGPT selected a colour - a kind of dusty pink - and I was unsure. Turns out to be a brilliant choice. Serene and airy and subtle

    🤷🏼‍♂️
    I will say that when you want it to be white or pink again, you will need to buy high quality paint.
    Now you’re all freaking me out. Aaaaaargh
    A decent primer/sealant would do the job with an ordinary paint, but they're not terribly cheap either.
    I’m gonna be living in a fucking inkwell

    WHAT HAVE I DONE
    Isn't that entirely appropriate for a Grub Street hack* ?

    *Not really intended as an insult, but I couldn't think of a politer term.
    Not insulted at all. I’m a proud member of His Majesty’s Honourable Company of Hacks
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,102
    edited August 26
    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    Your profile permission is private. That isn't allowed anymore. See @TheScreamingEagles post of a couple of days ago.
    Grass.
    Yep and the only one I will grass on. @moonshine went private sometime ago when I called s(he) out on some, let's be kind, obnoxious links.
    Your attitude and behaviour are bemusingly close to stalker.
    Proudly so of someone who posted links to QAnon post and linked to to a post that linked to overtly antisemitic posts with jew baiting.

    You haven't done so since so I haven't commented (so hardly stalking is it if for months and month and months I haven't commented), but if everyone else has to obey this rule you should do as well so we can see your past posts.
    Having just read the exchange with TSE, I am very much of a mind as Leon was with Ismael. Your obsessiveness is weird and actually slightly frightening to me.
    Funny that isn't it. I am not obsessive with anyone else at all, just you. None whatsoever. Also not obsessive with you either until you posted a link to QAnon post and linked to a post linking to a Jew baiting site with videos of people frighting the life out of Jews. Also I have not referred to you again since, until now. Weird definition of obsessive isn't it - Someone who (almost) completely ignores you is obsessive.

    Maybe you shouldn't have linked to those obnoxious posts and you would never have heard from me in the first place. You also won't hear from me again unless you do it again.

    PS In terms of being frightening, just think how those people being baited felt.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,040
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting article about wage caps, post Black Death.
    Is it kosher history ? @ydoethur ?

    Age of Invention: The Century-Long Depression
    https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-the-century-long

    Yes, although it's a bit narrow because it doesn't consider the wide regional variations that there were.

    For example, it overlooks this classic article on the situation in Durham:

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/651008 (should be available with a Google sign in)

    And also the major difference there were in city economies, which did boom after the Black Death due to the vast amount of coin in circulation and limits to what it could be spent on:

    https://www2.glos.ac.uk/bgas/tbgas/v103/bg103149.pdf

    But the general thrust of it is correct. There were innumerable attempts, down to the end of Elizabeth's reign and arguably the Civil War, to control the labour supply and all of them were distinctly unfortunate in their effects.
    Sadly that link is not a free to read article (it says access via library).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,581
    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    As always I am interested in the detail.

    We can pass any law we like. We can't compel an airline to carry deportees. Insurance was a live issue when Sunak tried to organise a Rwanda flight, so we know it is an issue.

    And what the F do you know, if that's your line? About insurance for airlines and aircraft leasing, specifically.
    DougSeal said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    It's not the Protocol the ECHR is in but the Good Friday Agreement, which is an international treaty. If Farage wants to dump that, well, its a view I suppose. I just remember the status quo ante and am not that thrilled with the idea of round 2. Specifically:
    • Section 2 of Strand One: This section commits the British and Irish governments to incorporating the ECHR into the law of Northern Ireland and ensuring that relevant rights are protected.


    • The Agreement explicitly states that “the European Convention on Human Rights…shall apply in Northern Ireland”, and both governments commit to “take the necessary steps to ensure that the relevant rights are protected in law.” For the ECRH to apply in NI it has to be part of a country that is a signatory to the ECHR. You can't sign it for only part of your territory.

    While there are some protests about migration in Ireland they are nowhere near as loud as here and any protests against renegotiating or dumping the GFA, or restricting the open border, will, I can assure you, be exponentially bigger.
    This is nonsense. The protests about migration in Ireland are, relatively, even fiercer than here

    The Irish regularly burn down asylum seeker housing. They had huge riots in Dublin on this issue. And it’s only getting worse

    It is highly likely the Irish would be keen to tighten human rights laws on this subject. Because it threatens the peace in the south
    There is huge public support for the GFA in Ireland and you need them to be willing to re-negotiate that. You’d have to do that before the UK could leave the ECHR otherwise you’d breach the GFA and the EU UK trade agreement.
    No one has ever said fixing this would be easy and done in a day. But the bleating from the left says “this is legally and humanly impossible” - which is ridiculous

    All it requires is political will
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,062
    Phil said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    There’s an interesting political dynamic within Labour on this. Blair warned Starmer upon taking office that this issue would fatally compromise the party unless addressed. The noises from Rayner are that she’s not impressed with the government’s record. Blunkett calling for a “pause” in certain elements of the ECHR.

    We are actually approaching a fairly broad political consensus that the country needs to go hard as nails to stop this as soon as possible. But our wet blanket PM doesn’t have the backbone to do it.

    Imagine being in a natsec meeting as PM with the heads of Mi5/SIS.

    “What guarantees can you give me that we arent letting countless sleepers into the country”.

    “None prime minister”.

    “So what are you doing about it”.

    “Well as you know we adopt a risk based approach to monitoring, given resource constraints”.

    At which point our current PM is presumably concluding, on well that sounds fine. Anyway, what can I tax next?
    The problem is (again) that Starmer is a lawyer who thinks in terms of the law, not in terms of action.

    If the (UK) supreme court told him to tow the boats, he’d do it in a heartbeat.
    Yes I think this sums him up well. The episode where the Supreme Court interjected on defining man vs woman was instructive. “Thank you for the helpful clarification” or words to the effect. Apologies to the lawyers but I’d be pleased if we never have to endure another running the country
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,046
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting article about wage caps, post Black Death.
    Is it kosher history ? @ydoethur ?

    Age of Invention: The Century-Long Depression
    https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-the-century-long

    Yes, although it's a bit narrow because it doesn't consider the wide regional variations that there were.

    For example, it overlooks this classic article on the situation in Durham:

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/651008 (should be available with a Google sign in)

    And also the major difference there were in city economies, which did boom after the Black Death due to the vast amount of coin in circulation and limits to what it could be spent on:

    https://www2.glos.ac.uk/bgas/tbgas/v103/bg103149.pdf

    But the general thrust of it is correct. There were innumerable attempts, down to the end of Elizabeth's reign and arguably the Civil War, to control the labour supply and all of them were distinctly unfortunate in their effects.
    Sadly that link is not a free to read article (it says access via library).
    Sure, but click on it, and it gives an option for a free personal account: "Log in or for a personal JSTOR account and read up to 100 articles/month free."
  • eekeek Posts: 31,040
    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    As always I am interested in the detail.

    We can pass any law we like. We can't compel an airline to carry deportees. Insurance was a live issue when Sunak tried to organise a Rwanda flight, so we know it is an issue.

    And what the F do you know, if that's your line? About insurance for airlines and aircraft leasing, specifically.
    DougSeal said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    It's not the Protocol the ECHR is in but the Good Friday Agreement, which is an international treaty. If Farage wants to dump that, well, its a view I suppose. I just remember the status quo ante and am not that thrilled with the idea of round 2. Specifically:
    • Section 2 of Strand One: This section commits the British and Irish governments to incorporating the ECHR into the law of Northern Ireland and ensuring that relevant rights are protected.


    • The Agreement explicitly states that “the European Convention on Human Rights…shall apply in Northern Ireland”, and both governments commit to “take the necessary steps to ensure that the relevant rights are protected in law.” For the ECRH to apply in NI it has to be part of a country that is a signatory to the ECHR. You can't sign it for only part of your territory.

    While there are some protests about migration in Ireland they are nowhere near as loud as here and any protests against renegotiating or dumping the GFA, or restricting the open border, will, I can assure you, be exponentially bigger.
    This is nonsense. The protests about migration in Ireland are, relatively, even fiercer than here

    The Irish regularly burn down asylum seeker housing. They had huge riots in Dublin on this issue. And it’s only getting worse

    It is highly likely the Irish would be keen to tighten human rights laws on this subject. Because it threatens the peace in the south
    There is huge public support for the GFA in Ireland and you need them to be willing to re-negotiate that. You’d have to do that before the UK could leave the ECHR otherwise you’d breach the GFA and the EU UK trade agreement.
    I suspect Farage would happily make Northern Ireland an Eire problem if he could - after all there are no votes there for him to capture
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,543

    nico67 said:

    carnforth said:

    If we can get away with NI being in the single market but GB not, why can't we get away with NI being in the ECHR but GB not?

    Legally that’s not possible . The UK can’t withdraw from the ECHR and leave NI in it .
    Let's do it and see if they litigate. It would mean losing NI from the ECHR if they do. Cutting off nose and all that...
    Surely Farage is only doing what most of us have criticised Starmer for not doing; talking about broad principles well before the election, with a view to being more specific closer to it.

    God forbid that I should be 'fair' to Farage, but as a lefty liberal one must be fair.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,426
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sitting in my sitting room with shelves cleared. Going away for a few days

    When I get back all the walls will be a different colour entirely. It’s a slightly unsettling feeling

    Turquoise? ;)
    I’ve gone for a very bold blue. Hick’s Blue. Slightly nervous

    But I’m bored of these polite greys and creams and greige. I’m not getting any younger and I want to turn my flat into something radical - opulently weird. Stage set for Act 3

    Halfway there but this is a big step

    I guess if I hate it I can always paint it back. There is that
    When I was in my early 20s I painted my living room a gorgeous rich shade of red. I loved that red.

    It was an awful choice for all four walls of a living room though.

    Sadly it is the case that the darker the colour you have on your walls the smaller and darker the room will feel. This is fine for a bedroom you won't spend much time in awake, but it's a mistake for any other room.

    You can get away with it on one or two walls, depending on how large your windows are, but any more than that will make you feel trapped in a small box.
    Yes it’s a risk. And that is the major risk

    However it’s more like three and a third walls. Because one wall is comprised of two enormous sash windows - floor to ceiling - which flood the room with light. And the room faces due south

    I’m relying on that, plus crisp white woodwork and a soft white ceiling, to save me from the oppressive jail feeling

    We shall see. Gulp! I won’t know until - inshallah - I walk back in here in about a week. I’ll know immediately

    An expensive mistake if it happens. I’ve done mock ups with ChatGPT and it looks great - but renderings often look great…

    OTOH I asked ChatGPT for advice on my hall and ChatGPT selected a colour - a kind of dusty pink - and I was unsure. Turns out to be a brilliant choice. Serene and airy and subtle

    🤷🏼‍♂️
    I will say that when you want it to be white or pink again, you will need to buy high quality paint.
    Now you’re all freaking me out. Aaaaaargh
    A decent primer/sealant would do the job with an ordinary paint, but they're not terribly cheap either.
    I’m gonna be living in a fucking inkwell

    WHAT HAVE I DONE
    Don’t worry. You’ll be away for most of the winter. You’ll hardly see it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,064
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting article about wage caps, post Black Death.
    Is it kosher history ? @ydoethur ?

    Age of Invention: The Century-Long Depression
    https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-the-century-long

    Yes, although it's a bit narrow because it doesn't consider the wide regional variations that there were.

    For example, it overlooks this classic article on the situation in Durham:

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/651008 (should be available with a Google sign in)

    And also the major difference there were in city economies, which did boom after the Black Death due to the vast amount of coin in circulation and limits to what it could be spent on:

    https://www2.glos.ac.uk/bgas/tbgas/v103/bg103149.pdf

    But the general thrust of it is correct. There were innumerable attempts, down to the end of Elizabeth's reign and arguably the Civil War, to control the labour supply and all of them were distinctly unfortunate in their effects.
    Sadly that link is not a free to read article (it says access via library).
    If you click 'log in or register' and either click on with Google or just sign up, you can get 100 free articles a month. I don't think you can download them but you can read them online.

    Which is a hell of a good deal, incidentally. Even when I was working as a lecturer/researcher I didn't get through that many articles in a month.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,046
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OK, so the Reform "Operation Restoring Justice" headlines:

    Detain & Deport "absolutely everyone arriving legally" with no admissible asylum claim and a lifetime ban from the UK
    Leave the ECHR and all international treaties (UN Torture etc)
    Create a UK Migration Command to coordinate all agencies data to find people who have gone to ground
    Detain until deportation
    Return agreements with all countries - we leverage our power by withholding visas and applying sanctions
    Find a 3rd country to send undocumented / unreturnable. Discuss with Albania, Rwanda and others

    Putting it simply, Parliament is sovereign. We can pass any law we like in our own borders. It becomes a problem when we try and bring those laws into practice.

    I see three major barriers and all are operational:
    1. Detain until Deportation. The "patriots" will not allow anywhere to be used for this purpose. Nor will staff be easy to find - unless the job is to employ the "patriots"
    2. The flights. Yusuf said there would be an RAF Voyager on hot standby to fill in for an unavailable commercial plane. But if the UK has abrogated all international treaties, the flights would both be illegal and uninsurable. So unless the UK government is going to operate all flights they won't happen - and then they are military flights which countries do not have to just accept. If we are sovereign, so are they.
    3. Yusuf describes how hard it is to "count the uncountable". We don't know how many and therefore who they are and where they are. Farage states we would have Border Force squads lifting people - which will cause chaos. The operational issue is that so many of the "illegals" that FukU supporters want to deport aren't illegal...

    Uninsured doesn't matter as the MoD carries the risk on military registered aircraft. Civil/military makes no difference if they aren't cleared for traffic or landing.

    AirTanker still have 2 x Voyager leased to Jet2 that they can recall so they would have substantial capacity. The deportation racket should have been 100% RAF run anyway. Much simpler.

    Quibbling over the details misses the point anyway. Your average racist chav, ie Fukker voter, just sees a plan and a commitment to action. The British state certainly has the means to do mass deportations if it has the will which it currently does not.
    Not quibbling - genuinely curious. It's been an interesting watch - Farage credited the Blair government repeatedly for deporting people at speed.

    I have little doubt that this would have to be an RAF operation because they won't find aircraft otherwise. Why not just say so? Does it create issues with the counterparty government we're sending people to?
    According to big Dom the Royal Navy was quite prepared to tow back the small boats to France - the plan was up and running - they were happy to do it. Defending our seas is, after all, their one and only job

    It was the politicians who got nervous and then the human rights lawyers exploited their nerves

    All this “uninsurable” stuff is total gibberish. Also: What the F do you know you’re a north Scottish part time Tesla reviewer who believes in ghosts

    If we want to deport, we can deport. Enough of this spinelessness
    As always I am interested in the detail.

    We can pass any law we like. We can't compel an airline to carry deportees. Insurance was a live issue when Sunak tried to organise a Rwanda flight, so we know it is an issue.

    And what the F do you know, if that's your line? About insurance for airlines and aircraft leasing, specifically.
    DougSeal said:

    moonshine said:

    OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    I expect Farage will just withdraw from the ECHR no matter the consequences

    He is following the Trump playbook
    The backlash against mass third world migration is becoming as loud in Ireland as it is here. If the John Lennon no-borders types think a second version of the Northern Ireland Protocol will maintain their cosy status quo, I fear they will be disappointed.
    It's not the Protocol the ECHR is in but the Good Friday Agreement, which is an international treaty. If Farage wants to dump that, well, its a view I suppose. I just remember the status quo ante and am not that thrilled with the idea of round 2. Specifically:
    • Section 2 of Strand One: This section commits the British and Irish governments to incorporating the ECHR into the law of Northern Ireland and ensuring that relevant rights are protected.


    • The Agreement explicitly states that “the European Convention on Human Rights…shall apply in Northern Ireland”, and both governments commit to “take the necessary steps to ensure that the relevant rights are protected in law.” For the ECRH to apply in NI it has to be part of a country that is a signatory to the ECHR. You can't sign it for only part of your territory.

    While there are some protests about migration in Ireland they are nowhere near as loud as here and any protests against renegotiating or dumping the GFA, or restricting the open border, will, I can assure you, be exponentially bigger.
    This is nonsense. The protests about migration in Ireland are, relatively, even fiercer than here

    The Irish regularly burn down asylum seeker housing. They had huge riots in Dublin on this issue. And it’s only getting worse

    It is highly likely the Irish would be keen to tighten human rights laws on this subject. Because it threatens the peace in the south
    There is huge public support for the GFA in Ireland and you need them to be willing to re-negotiate that. You’d have to do that before the UK could leave the ECHR otherwise you’d breach the GFA and the EU UK trade agreement.
    I suspect Farage would happily make Northern Ireland an Eire problem if he could - after all there are no votes there for him to capture
    But presumably there is the Unionist MP contingent to woo for their votes in Parliament. It's not so long since they held the balance on a topic close to Mr F's heart, is it?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,040
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting article about wage caps, post Black Death.
    Is it kosher history ? @ydoethur ?

    Age of Invention: The Century-Long Depression
    https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-the-century-long

    Yes, although it's a bit narrow because it doesn't consider the wide regional variations that there were.

    For example, it overlooks this classic article on the situation in Durham:

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/651008 (should be available with a Google sign in)

    And also the major difference there were in city economies, which did boom after the Black Death due to the vast amount of coin in circulation and limits to what it could be spent on:

    https://www2.glos.ac.uk/bgas/tbgas/v103/bg103149.pdf

    But the general thrust of it is correct. There were innumerable attempts, down to the end of Elizabeth's reign and arguably the Civil War, to control the labour supply and all of them were distinctly unfortunate in their effects.
    Sadly that link is not a free to read article (it says access via library).
    If you click 'log in or register' and either click on with Google or just sign up, you can get 100 free articles a month. I don't think you can download them but you can read them online.

    Which is a hell of a good deal, incidentally. Even when I was working as a lecturer/researcher I didn't get through that many articles in a month.
    I’m not sure which part of

    This item is not available for free online reading.

    Read and download
    Log in through your school or library

    This is a preview. Log in through your library .

    Is hard to understand - in my case I can’t access the article (will try to dig up my old uni library card and see if my lifetime membership still works).
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,424
    edited August 26
    My Russian family tell me that the need for more (white?) babies if reaching fever pitch in Russia. There are incentives on offer but social media (which they monitor) is increasingly supporting the idea if you don't have babies you are not Russian.

    Perhaps we could solve the immigration issue by sending them there. After all they need the hard currency.

    https://russiapost.info/society/population_policy

    Edit: Doesn't Farage have a mate in Russia?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,803

    Leon, surely the biggest travel story in the world right now is that no-one wants to go to the US. Go to some resorts - find out if its true, speak to those who have braved it, see if they had worries, whether they still have worries having made the trip. Is it cheaper/more choice/smaller queues at Disneyland? Is it a brilliant time to travel there (depending on what you write might get you the Presidential Medal of Freedom....).

    The FT ran a piece - the collapse in foreign tourism is real and undeniable. With revenues being offset by an increase in domestic tourism. So the angle is "find a foreigner"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,046
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting article about wage caps, post Black Death.
    Is it kosher history ? @ydoethur ?

    Age of Invention: The Century-Long Depression
    https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-the-century-long

    Yes, although it's a bit narrow because it doesn't consider the wide regional variations that there were.

    For example, it overlooks this classic article on the situation in Durham:

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/651008 (should be available with a Google sign in)

    And also the major difference there were in city economies, which did boom after the Black Death due to the vast amount of coin in circulation and limits to what it could be spent on:

    https://www2.glos.ac.uk/bgas/tbgas/v103/bg103149.pdf

    But the general thrust of it is correct. There were innumerable attempts, down to the end of Elizabeth's reign and arguably the Civil War, to control the labour supply and all of them were distinctly unfortunate in their effects.
    Sadly that link is not a free to read article (it says access via library).
    If you click 'log in or register' and either click on with Google or just sign up, you can get 100 free articles a month. I don't think you can download them but you can read them online.

    Which is a hell of a good deal, incidentally. Even when I was working as a lecturer/researcher I didn't get through that many articles in a month.
    I’m not sure which part of

    This item is not available for free online reading.

    Read and download
    Log in through your school or library

    This is a preview. Log in through your library .

    Is hard to understand - in my case I can’t access the article (will try to dig up my old uni library card and see if my lifetime membership still works).
    Clicvk on the red button showing "Read and download. Log in ... library."

    Works for me on a PC - or are you on a phone?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,040
    Battlebus said:

    My Russian family tell me that the need for more (white?) babies if reaching fever pitch in Russia. There are incentives on offer but social media (which they monitor) is increasingly supporting the idea if you don't have babies you are not Russian.

    Perhaps we could solve the immigration issue by sending them there. After all they need the hard currency.

    https://russiapost.info/society/population_policy

    Two problems

    1) the migrants are not of a suitable skin colour
    2) they are of an age when Russia likes to send them to become cannon fodder in the Ukraine
  • OK this is interesting. Farage admitting that the ECHR is embedded into the Good Friday Agreement and that the required renegotiation of that won't be "quick". Does that mean that we can't do any of this without it? Because unless we quit ECHR and the UN treaties none of this is legal.

    No, Parliament is sovereign.

    Just quit the ECHR and then renegotiate the GFA as per the new circumstances.

    The GFA has been tweaked many times already. If it were Ireland wanting to quit they wouldn't let the tail wag the dog and neither should we.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,064
    edited August 26
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting article about wage caps, post Black Death.
    Is it kosher history ? @ydoethur ?

    Age of Invention: The Century-Long Depression
    https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-the-century-long

    Yes, although it's a bit narrow because it doesn't consider the wide regional variations that there were.

    For example, it overlooks this classic article on the situation in Durham:

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/651008 (should be available with a Google sign in)

    And also the major difference there were in city economies, which did boom after the Black Death due to the vast amount of coin in circulation and limits to what it could be spent on:

    https://www2.glos.ac.uk/bgas/tbgas/v103/bg103149.pdf

    But the general thrust of it is correct. There were innumerable attempts, down to the end of Elizabeth's reign and arguably the Civil War, to control the labour supply and all of them were distinctly unfortunate in their effects.
    Sadly that link is not a free to read article (it says access via library).
    If you click 'log in or register' and either click on with Google or just sign up, you can get 100 free articles a month. I don't think you can download them but you can read them online.

    Which is a hell of a good deal, incidentally. Even when I was working as a lecturer/researcher I didn't get through that many articles in a month.
    I’m not sure which part of

    This item is not available for free online reading.

    Read and download
    Log in through your school or library

    This is a preview. Log in through your library .

    Is hard to understand - in my case I can’t access the article (will try to dig up my old uni library card and see if my lifetime membership still works).
    Go to the top right and click 'log in' or 'register' and it should work.

    I haven't actually double checked it and some are still paywalled, but you can get your own account. Ignore the bit about libraries, that's what they say for everything.

    Edit - ah, having checked it it is still paywalled. Sorry. Blame OUP.
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