Midterm Madness! – politicalbetting.com

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Midterm Madness! – politicalbetting.com

Just three and a half more years of President Trump! (Assuming the 22nd Amendment can’t be undone by Executive Order, of course. I mean, perhaps they meant consecutive terms, and just forgot to put the word in there. The master of originalism (when it’s convenient) – Clarence Thomas – might certainly go for that.

Read the full story here

Smart51

Hopefully the mid terms will be a disaster for Trump, which will embolden some in the rest of the Republican party to move against him, or at least stand up to him.

ydoethur

Though his penis is teeny tiny, his disapproval rating is

MASSIVE!

Morris_Dancer

Interesting suggestion, Robert, and good article.

Stuartinromford

The catch is that, the worse the Republicans look like doing, the greater the temptation to... ahem... manage the electoral process. In the patriotic national interest, of course.

ydoethur

Stuartinromford said:

The catch is that, the worse the Republicans look like doing, the greater the temptation to... ahem... manage the electoral process. In the patriotic national interest, of course.

I don't see that as a catch, because he'll be doing it anyway even if he has approval ratings at 98%.

eek

FPT

Omnium said:

eek said:

Chris said:

IanB2 said:

Today’s Sunday Rawnsley, nice and early as we trundle through Riihimaki, and very pertinent indeed for our own forum:

Told that there’s been a gas leak in the building, Nigel Farage is the guy who fires up a cigarette. There’s no situation so combustible that he can’t contrive to try to make it more frightening.

“Civil disobedience on a vast scale”? “Nothing short of societal collapse”? Unless I am entirely mistaken about my country, Britain is not about to descend into the anarchic Fury Road dystopia feverishly predicted by the leader of Reform, presumably because he thinks that kind of apocalyptic demagoguery plays to his political advantage. This is Trump-like “American carnage” stuff. Not at all British.

The language used by prominent politicians can cool confrontations and draw incensed folk back from the brink. Words can also feed febrility and stoke fears. No one knows this better than Mr Farage. Here’s his Achilles heel – or one of them. As a rule, Britain has balked at putting someone into Number 10 if they can’t be trusted not to strike sparks when the air is combustible.

There have been signs that Mr Farage grasps that he will not achieve his ambitions unless his party can “broaden its appeal”. This is generally interpreted as meaning that it needs to behave less recklessly, come over as more professional and stop looking like a one-man protest party with a playbook that contains just the single trick. Hostility to migration has been a potent attractor of support for Reform among voters for whom the issue is fiercely salient. It has also been a support-limiter among voters who see benefits from immigration or among those who find Reform monomaniacally obsessed with the one subject at the expense of all the other issues facing Britain. Then there are the many voters who simply find the party too repulsive and its leader too toxic to ever contemplate supporting it.

Mr Farage affects not to be bothered that none of his sums add up. For now and for the immediate future, this lack of credibility will probably not greatly matter. Its rivals already sound resigned to Reform doing well at next May’s mid-term elections, which will be a classic opportunity for protest voting. At a general election, when Britain is choosing a government, I suspect his irresponsibility will matter a lot. There’s a clue in the opinion polls. Given the choice between prime minister Farage or prime minister Starmer or Badenoch or Davey, pollsters report that in each head-to-head most voters will plump for anybody but the Reform leader. Britain has many problems but the country retains an admirable reluctance to make a prime minister of someone who can’t be trusted around matches.

Given the choice between prime minister Farage or prime minister Starmer or Badenoch or Davey, pollsters report that in each head-to-head most voters will plump for anybody but the Reform leader.

People who fantasise about a Reform government need to reflect on this and remember FPTP.

The problem with a FPTP inn a 4-5 party system will be people correctly predicting how is the not Farage candidate who can win in their constituency - because there are likely to be 2 possible options in many constituencies..

A focus by the other parties on 'not Farage' or, god forbid they get that far, 'not Corbyn' risks rather obscuring the fact that the other likely MPs in these parties are far more to be avoided than the leaders.

I think a lot of Con/Lab/LD MPs are rather useless, but they're intellectual titans compared with the riff-raff that the lesser parties put forward.

Problem is by the time you discover that your new MP is utterly useless you've removed the previous good one..

ydoethur

Smart51 said:

Hopefully the mid terms will be a disaster for Trump, which will embolden some in the rest of the Republican party to move against him, or at least stand up to him.

The issue is that for the MAGA madness to be if not stopped at least seriously hindered the Republicans need to lose the Senate, and that seems very unlikely indeed. Even on a pretty good night the Dems would pick up at most three seats under normal circumstances on that map. And they need four. For that to happen the Republicans need to be more underwater than Numenor in the Akallabeth and I don't see it even on these polls.

IanB2

On topic, anything less than an overwhelming rejection of Trump, and you would wonder what drug so many Americans are on?

Off topic, I know people who have flown their kids to see Santa in Lapland, and come back talking of the magic of the snow and sleighs and reindeer, the sound of bells and the twinkling lights in the Arctic twilight.

Take all of that away, and the magic is - not so much. Just a large shopping mall with every shop selling Santa tat; often the very same range of tat as the shop next door. There is the Arctic Circle, however, marked by that line of columns.

First snow will arrive probably 1 December...

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

On topic, anything less than an overwhelming rejection of Trump, and you would wonder what drug so many Americans are on?

Fentanyl, surely?

DavidL

Trump has an ongoing crisis/humiliation in respect of tariffs where he has seriously overplayed his hand.

He has the ongoing story of Epstein who was very clearly murdered by people who had access to official recordings and the ability to doctor them.

He has a fiscal disaster with his Big beautiful bill which threatens both higher interest rates (as investors withdraw) and higher inflation.
His mental capacity seems to be deteriorating.

The level of corruption through the misuse of his office, the straightforward bribes through cryptocurrency and Truth Social together with the dismissal of opponents are like nothing the US has ever seen. His trip to Scotland to promote his new golf course is estimated to have cost the US taxpayer $10m alone.

Overall, I would say that his popularity readings are incredibly high given how he has performed but are unlikely to stay that way. I am not completely sure that a blue wave might not take the Senate if things go on like this.

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

Smart51 said:

Hopefully the mid terms will be a disaster for Trump, which will embolden some in the rest of the Republican party to move against him, or at least stand up to him.

The issue is that for the MAGA madness to be if not stopped at least seriously hindered the Republicans need to lose the Senate, and that seems very unlikely indeed. Even on a pretty good night the Dems would pick up at most three seats under normal circumstances on that map. And they need four. For that to happen the Republicans need to be more underwater than Numenor in the Akallabeth and I don't see it even on these polls.

If, and it's a big if, Ken Paxton were to beat out Cornyn for the Republican nomination in Texas, then it's possible.

Most likely, the Dems will gain Maine and North Carolina.

Then there are two states where the Democrats have a chance: Iowa, where Joni Ernst seems to have an electoral death wish. (And where I can't help feel the Mexican Coke moves won't go down well.) And Ohio, if (and only if) Sherrod Brown is the Democratic candidate.

Like you, I think three is probably a realistic limit for the Dems: Maine, North Carolina and Iowa.

But if Paxton wins the nomination in Texas... oh boy...

Scott_xP

DavidL said:

Trump has an ongoing crisis/humiliation in respect of tariffs where he has seriously overplayed his hand.

He has the ongoing story of Epstein who was very clearly murdered by people who had access to official recordings and the ability to doctor them.

He has a fiscal disaster with his Big beautiful bill which threatens both higher interest rates (as investors withdraw) and higher inflation.
His mental capacity seems to be deteriorating.

The level of corruption through the misuse of his office, the straightforward bribes through cryptocurrency and Truth Social together with the dismissal of opponents are like nothing the US has ever seen. His trip to Scotland to promote his new golf course is estimated to have cost the US taxpayer $10m alone.

Overall, I would say that his popularity readings are incredibly high given how he has performed but are unlikely to stay that way. I am not completely sure that a blue wave might not take the Senate if things go on like this.

Fake News

Fake News

Fake News

Fake News

MAGA !!!

Morris_Dancer

It's been raining for a while despite a minimum chance of rain... does make me wonder if the Belgian forecast will prove accurate or not.

DavidL

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:

Trump has an ongoing crisis/humiliation in respect of tariffs where he has seriously overplayed his hand.

He has the ongoing story of Epstein who was very clearly murdered by people who had access to official recordings and the ability to doctor them.

He has a fiscal disaster with his Big beautiful bill which threatens both higher interest rates (as investors withdraw) and higher inflation.
His mental capacity seems to be deteriorating.

The level of corruption through the misuse of his office, the straightforward bribes through cryptocurrency and Truth Social together with the dismissal of opponents are like nothing the US has ever seen. His trip to Scotland to promote his new golf course is estimated to have cost the US taxpayer $10m alone.

Overall, I would say that his popularity readings are incredibly high given how he has performed but are unlikely to stay that way. I am not completely sure that a blue wave might not take the Senate if things go on like this.

Fake News

Fake News

Fake News

Fake News

MAGA !!!

You're right of course.

rcs1000

DavidL said:

Trump has an ongoing crisis/humiliation in respect of tariffs where he has seriously overplayed his hand.

He has the ongoing story of Epstein who was very clearly murdered by people who had access to official recordings and the ability to doctor them.

He has a fiscal disaster with his Big beautiful bill which threatens both higher interest rates (as investors withdraw) and higher inflation.
His mental capacity seems to be deteriorating.

The level of corruption through the misuse of his office, the straightforward bribes through cryptocurrency and Truth Social together with the dismissal of opponents are like nothing the US has ever seen. His trip to Scotland to promote his new golf course is estimated to have cost the US taxpayer $10m alone.

Overall, I would say that his popularity readings are incredibly high given how he has performed but are unlikely to stay that way. I am not completely sure that a blue wave might not take the Senate if things go on like this.

Paxton, I see, leads Cornyn by nine points in the polls.

It is worth remembering that many of Paxton's own Republican colleagues voted for his impeachment.

DavidL

Morris_Dancer said:

It's been raining for a while despite a minimum chance of rain... does make me wonder if the Belgian forecast will prove accurate or not.

Sorry MD, but we have a BBQ organised for today. Don't forget your wellies!

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Trump has an ongoing crisis/humiliation in respect of tariffs where he has seriously overplayed his hand.

He has the ongoing story of Epstein who was very clearly murdered by people who had access to official recordings and the ability to doctor them.

He has a fiscal disaster with his Big beautiful bill which threatens both higher interest rates (as investors withdraw) and higher inflation.
His mental capacity seems to be deteriorating.

The level of corruption through the misuse of his office, the straightforward bribes through cryptocurrency and Truth Social together with the dismissal of opponents are like nothing the US has ever seen. His trip to Scotland to promote his new golf course is estimated to have cost the US taxpayer $10m alone.

Overall, I would say that his popularity readings are incredibly high given how he has performed but are unlikely to stay that way. I am not completely sure that a blue wave might not take the Senate if things go on like this.

Paxton, I see, leads Cornyn by nine points in the polls.

It is worth remembering that many of Paxton's own Republican colleagues voted for his impeachment.

Here's a more recent poll: Paxton leads Cornyn by 16 percentage points in the primary poll, but is three points behind a generic Democrat for the Senate seat.

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/17/texas-senate-race-polling-cornyn-paxton

IanB2

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

eek

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Trump has an ongoing crisis/humiliation in respect of tariffs where he has seriously overplayed his hand.

He has the ongoing story of Epstein who was very clearly murdered by people who had access to official recordings and the ability to doctor them.

He has a fiscal disaster with his Big beautiful bill which threatens both higher interest rates (as investors withdraw) and higher inflation.
His mental capacity seems to be deteriorating.

The level of corruption through the misuse of his office, the straightforward bribes through cryptocurrency and Truth Social together with the dismissal of opponents are like nothing the US has ever seen. His trip to Scotland to promote his new golf course is estimated to have cost the US taxpayer $10m alone.

Overall, I would say that his popularity readings are incredibly high given how he has performed but are unlikely to stay that way. I am not completely sure that a blue wave might not take the Senate if things go on like this.

Paxton, I see, leads Cornyn by nine points in the polls.

It is worth remembering that many of Paxton's own Republican colleagues voted for his impeachment.

Here's a more recent poll: Paxton leads Cornyn by 16 percentage points in the primary poll, but is three points behind a generic Democrat for the Senate seat.

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/17/texas-senate-race-polling-cornyn-paxton

Is it an open primary or restricted to Republicans?

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Trump has an ongoing crisis/humiliation in respect of tariffs where he has seriously overplayed his hand.

He has the ongoing story of Epstein who was very clearly murdered by people who had access to official recordings and the ability to doctor them.

He has a fiscal disaster with his Big beautiful bill which threatens both higher interest rates (as investors withdraw) and higher inflation.
His mental capacity seems to be deteriorating.

The level of corruption through the misuse of his office, the straightforward bribes through cryptocurrency and Truth Social together with the dismissal of opponents are like nothing the US has ever seen. His trip to Scotland to promote his new golf course is estimated to have cost the US taxpayer $10m alone.

Overall, I would say that his popularity readings are incredibly high given how he has performed but are unlikely to stay that way. I am not completely sure that a blue wave might not take the Senate if things go on like this.

Paxton, I see, leads Cornyn by nine points in the polls.

It is worth remembering that many of Paxton's own Republican colleagues voted for his impeachment.

Paxton is pushing it but the Democrats seem to have been dreaming of regaining Texas since LBJ went to the White House. Every cycle against the most appalling of opponents, and....nada.

Stuartinromford

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

MattW

How do they calculate the "90% projected to fall within the shaded region" bounds on a Net value?

To my the shaded region on the the "Strong Approve" has tightened quite some way in the recent toboggan ride. That is presumably an indicator that it will be a bit toucher for it to recover.

Casino_Royale

I prefer Bill Paxton. Wish he was still with us.

Through Bill Paxton Pinball, his legacy lives on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRZJgPCNDY0

Battlebus

IanB2 said:

On topic, anything less than an overwhelming rejection of Trump, and you would wonder what drug so many Americans are on?

Off topic, I know people who have flown their kids to see Santa in Lapland, and come back talking of the magic of the snow and sleighs and reindeer, the sound of bells and the twinkling lights in the Arctic twilight.

Take all of that away, and the magic is - not so much. Just a large shopping mall with every shop selling Santa tat; often the very same range of tat as the shop next door. There is the Arctic Circle, however, marked by that line of columns.

First snow will arrive probably 1 December...

Did you sit on Santa's lap and reel of a list of what you wanted in a few months time? Ideal opportunity to get your request in early.

Chris

IanB2 said:

On topic, anything less than an overwhelming rejection of Trump, and you would wonder what drug so many Americans are on?

Social Media, surely?

Sean_F

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

Foxy

DavidL said:

Trump has an ongoing crisis/humiliation in respect of tariffs where he has seriously overplayed his hand.

He has the ongoing story of Epstein who was very clearly murdered by people who had access to official recordings and the ability to doctor them.

He has a fiscal disaster with his Big beautiful bill which threatens both higher interest rates (as investors withdraw) and higher inflation.
His mental capacity seems to be deteriorating.

The level of corruption through the misuse of his office, the straightforward bribes through cryptocurrency and Truth Social together with the dismissal of opponents are like nothing the US has ever seen. His trip to Scotland to promote his new golf course is estimated to have cost the US taxpayer $10m alone.

Overall, I would say that his popularity readings are incredibly high given how he has performed but are unlikely to stay that way. I am not completely sure that a blue wave might not take the Senate if things go on like this.

You cannot apply logic to cult behaviour.

We have to wait for the grim reaper to do his job, and even then we get Vance.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

Battlebus

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

There is a cap of the amount of benefits you can receive at £25000 so a single mum with 2 children are on half the minimum required - unless of course the children or adults are diagnosed with a condition that allows them to claim non-means tested benefits like DLA/carer's allowance. Google says:

The number of children in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) has more than doubled in England and Wales over the past decade, rising from approximately 333,000 in 2013 to 682,000 in 2023. This is equivalent to around 6% of children aged 0–15 as of 2023, compared to only 3% in 2013.

If you try to hold down benefits lower than a level needed to raise children, the system bends towards finding other ways.

MattW

It seems that Mr Vance will be invading Charlbury:

“Americans cannot get over the charm but since Covid it’s been refashioned with all the pleasures of London, Paris and New York.”

In May, Charlbury was hand-picked as being one of the best places to live in the county, among the likes of Henley and Burford.

It came as part of Muddy Stilettos’ list of 10 best places to live after the travel site looked at 300 different areas across the UK.

He could pop along to the Charlbury Museum – which was founded in 1949 and has a range of traditional crafts and industries on display – or just enjoy the pretty Cotswolds landscape.
https://www.cotswoldjournal.co.uk/news/25343833.cotswold-town-jd-vance-will-holiday-revealed/

Muddy Stilettoes?

HYUFD

The worst midterms defeat for an incumbent President's party since WW2 was in 1974 when the Republicans got just 40% of the House vote after Watergate.

43% approval for Trump is better than that but still close to the 44% the President's party got in 1994, 2006 and 2010 all of which saw the opposition party take the House and apart from 2010 the Senate too

FrancisUrquhart

England will "wait and see" whether captain Ben Stokes is fit enough to bowl when they push for victory over India on the final day of the fourth Test at Old Trafford, says assistant coach Marcus Trescothick.

Worlds longest bout of cramp.

Theuniondivvie

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

Not sure that all white Americans consider Hispanics as white, though I guess many US Latinos may see voting for the 'white' party as part of the process of whitewashing.

FrancisUrquhart

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

Barnesian

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

Latin Americans rather than Europeans?

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

I don’t think that I’ve read a better article on US politics, than Sean Trende’s The God That Failed.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/16/the_god_that_failed_132363.html

Ruy Texeira was far too good a writer to say that the Democrats could simply rely upon demographic change, without doing the hard work of putting together a winning coalition, but many people interpreted his book, The Emerging Democratic Majority to mean that. It was wishful thinking.

HYUFD

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

Yes we need more funding for childcare but even fifty years ago there was very little childcare, 100 years ago next to none, no minimum wage and lower average earnings than now and parents had more children than they do now

JohnLilburne

FrancisUrquhart said:

England will "wait and see" whether captain Ben Stokes is fit enough to bowl when they push for victory over India on the final day of the fourth Test at Old Trafford, says assistant coach Marcus Trescothick.

Worlds longest bout of cramp.

Having had cramp, it can certainly take a couple of days for the muscle to get back to normal, if it's a bad one and cramps right up

MattW

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

How long did the process take? And what about "Non_White" Hispanics (I was not expecting that category to be such a factor).

A table from Wiki, Racial Demographics of Hispanic Americans 1970-2020:

(Miscegenation is increasingly significant. A very big decline in "White Alone between 1970 - 90%+ and 2020 - 20%. Startling shift from "White Alone" to "Two or more races" since 2010." There will be politics of identity in it, of course.)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanic_and_Latino_Americans

JohnLilburne

Theuniondivvie said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

Not sure that all white Americans consider Hispanics as white, though I guess many US Latinos may see voting for the 'white' party as part of the process of whitewashing.

I believe Hispanics are treated separately, most are White, some are Black

Foxy

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

All immigrant groups behave more like the majority population over time and generations, and not just in voting patterns.

It is quite obvious here too.

stodge

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

Foxy

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

Yes we need more funding for childcare but even fifty years ago there was very little childcare, 100 years ago next to none, no minimum wage and lower average earnings than now and parents had more children than they do now

Yes, the drop in fertility rates is about more than affordability. A large part is the rise in age at first child (leaving less time for more) but also the age at which people settle into stable relationships.

Adolescence now extends to 30 or beyond for many Britons, leaving less and less time for adulthood.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

And then getting deported...

stodge

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

Yes we need more funding for childcare but even fifty years ago there was very little childcare, 100 years ago next to none, no minimum wage and lower average earnings than now and parents had more children than they do now

Yes and not so long ago we sent children as young as nine down mines, up chimneys and in between complex machinery. I'm sure a return to those days would be hugely popular....we could bring back poorhouses (just call them two star hotels).

There's also the small matter of infant mortality numbers from 100 years ago which don't make attractive reading in the context of today (though much better than they were 100 years before that) and the old life expectancy numbers as well - back then life was perhaps not as nasty, brutish and short as it had been in earlier times but still...

StillWaters

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

Will that change following the leopard’s recent actions?

Foxy

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

I agree. Between the price difference of pubs and off sales, and the preference for screen based lives over meeting in person pubs are facing an uphill battle. The best may well survive, but many won't.

FrancisUrquhart

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

As well as social change, the big killer is ever higher turn over taxes which they can't escape, and of course cost of living / inflation it very expensive to go for a pint even of coke cola.

Sunday lunch in a pub for 4 now can easily set you back £100-150 now without drinking.

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

I prefer Bill Paxton. Wish he was still with us.

Through Bill Paxton Pinball, his legacy lives on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRZJgPCNDY0

Hey, Casino, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate trainspotters will protect you!

stodge

Morning all

Vaguely on topic, I'd have more chance trying to predict the results of next year's London local elections than I would the American midterms. I suppose it depends on who the GOP pick from their primaries and whether the Democrats can run effective campaigns at local and State level (some evidence from special elections since Trump became POTUS they are doing that) and can trade on disllusion with Trump without sounding too radical.

Stuartinromford

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

And then getting deported...

Are there any stats on how Hispanic support for the Face-eating leopards Republicans is holding up?

FrancisUrquhart

I think a big mistake is seeing Latino / Hispanics as a monolithic group.

Nigelb

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

Do we have any recent polling of Latinos in Texas ?

Those with political memories going back more than three decades will recall Prop 187 in California, which lost for a generation the Latino vote that Reagan had courted.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-07-02/trump-latinos-2024-ice-raids

The same dynamic is underway now, with the openly racist and legally suspect policies of Miller and Homan at ICE.

HYUFD

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

Yes we need more funding for childcare but even fifty years ago there was very little childcare, 100 years ago next to none, no minimum wage and lower average earnings than now and parents had more children than they do now

Yes, the drop in fertility rates is about more than affordability. A large part is the rise in age at first child (leaving less time for more) but also the age at which people settle into stable relationships.

Adolescence now extends to 30 or beyond for many Britons, leaving less and less time for adulthood.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

Yes we need more funding for childcare but even fifty years ago there was very little childcare, 100 years ago next to none, no minimum wage and lower average earnings than now and parents had more children than they do now

Yes, the drop in fertility rates is about more than affordability. A large part is the rise in age at first child (leaving less time for more) but also the age at which people settle into stable relationships.

Adolescence now extends to 30 or beyond for many Britons, leaving less and less time for adulthood.

Yes partly, that also includes more going to university at a time their parents or grandparents might have had their first child and already be in the workforce and the decline in religion amongst those of childbearing age

HYUFD

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

As well as social change, the big killer is ever higher turn over taxes which they can't escape, and of course cost of living / inflation it very expensive to go for a pint even of coke cola.


Sunday lunch in a pub for 4 now can easily set you back £100-150 now without drinking.

Tax and inflation was higher in the 1970s than now and more had more children still

HYUFD

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

Yes we need more funding for childcare but even fifty years ago there was very little childcare, 100 years ago next to none, no minimum wage and lower average earnings than now and parents had more children than they do now

Yes and not so long ago we sent children as young as nine down mines, up chimneys and in between complex machinery. I'm sure a return to those days would be hugely popular....we could bring back poorhouses (just call them two star hotels).

There's also the small matter of infant mortality numbers from 100 years ago which don't make attractive reading in the context of today (though much better than they were 100 years before that) and the old life expectancy numbers as well - back then life was perhaps not as nasty, brutish and short as it had been in earlier times but still...

Even in 2000 we were at replacement level fertility with life expectancy and infant mortality rates in the UK little different to now

MattW

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

I'm not sure why anyone thinks they are not already protected?

Has anyone else ever tried to make a complaint stick?

(My experience was rural not urban - music thumping from a nightclub shaking the structure of the house from 100m away when the opened the doors.)

stodge

Foxy said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

I agree. Between the price difference of pubs and off sales, and the preference for screen based lives over meeting in person pubs are facing an uphill battle. The best may well survive, but many won't.

I'm not sure - I like going to pubs and cafes by myself with some reading matter and enjoying a nice meal. I'll be heretical for a moment here - we aren't all always gregarious by nature. If you are with an another person or group of people for much of your life, you may enjoy short periods of solitude (used to be called peace and quiet). Now, I like the genial buzz of a cafe or a pub but that doesn't mean I want to be bothered - at my usual haunts in the Barking Road I'll say hello to the regulars I know but that's it.

FrancisUrquhart

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

As well as social change, the big killer is ever higher turn over taxes which they can't escape, and of course cost of living / inflation it very expensive to go for a pint even of coke cola.


Sunday lunch in a pub for 4 now can easily set you back £100-150 now without drinking.

Tax and inflation was higher in the 1970s than now and more had more children still

Not sure what that has to do with pubs, but go and have a look how much a pint cost in the 70s in today's money...hint it wasn't £8-10.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think a big mistake is seeing Latino / Hispanics as a monolithic group.

One that Stephen Miller seems to have made.

FrancisUrquhart

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Nigelb

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

I don’t think that I’ve read a better article on US politics, than Sean Trende’s The God That Failed.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/16/the_god_that_failed_132363.html

Ruy Texeira was far too good a writer to say that the Democrats could simply rely upon demographic change, without doing the hard work of putting together a winning coalition, but many people interpreted his book, The Emerging Democratic Majority to mean that. It was wishful thinking.

That is a very good article. I should read more of his stuff.

One thing such long term analyses rarely mention, though, is the precipitous pace of technological change.

Both campaigning and the dynamics of the economy are altering, completely outside of the politicians' influence. That too makes long sweep analyses suspect. Trende (in a nominative paradox) is quite right to make a strong case for contingency.

Nigelb

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

Eventually is irrelevant for the next electoral cycle, though.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

I don’t think that I’ve read a better article on US politics, than Sean Trende’s The God That Failed.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/16/the_god_that_failed_132363.html

Ruy Texeira was far too good a writer to say that the Democrats could simply rely upon demographic change, without doing the hard work of putting together a winning coalition, but many people interpreted his book, The Emerging Democratic Majority to mean that. It was wishful thinking.

Eric Kaufmann says similar in Whiteshift.

Mixed-race Britons and minority Britons will adopt the cultures and habits of the existing population over time, and won't be defined by their skin colour.

It's why James Cleverly, Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch are all obviously British whilst also being quite right-wing and Trevor Philips and Matthew Syed rejecting their politics being defined by their race, and also proud to be British.

MattW

On pubs, this is a Youtube Channel called The Great British Pub Crawl, where he visits pubs in a town and has a drink (a half I hope) in each.

(There are city equivalents.)

Here's one from my town (21 pubs - he did the centre and a couple of sides of town):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPGkGPnnDMg

He covered Agent Anderson's 2 favourite pubs, the Rifle Volunteer (friends) and the New Cross (cheap beer).

Here's one from Worcester. 18 pubs, but it's a "further pubs" visit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyhPGe-N-MY

Foxy

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

I don’t think that I’ve read a better article on US politics, than Sean Trende’s The God That Failed.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/16/the_god_that_failed_132363.html

Ruy Texeira was far too good a writer to say that the Democrats could simply rely upon demographic change, without doing the hard work of putting together a winning coalition, but many people interpreted his book, The Emerging Democratic Majority to mean that. It was wishful thinking.

Eric Kaufmann says similar in Whiteshift.

Mixed-race Britons and minority Britons will adopt the cultures and habits of the existing population over time, and won't be defined by their skin colour.

It's why James Cleverly, Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch are all obviously British whilst also being quite right-wing and Trevor Philips and Matthew Syed rejecting their politics being defined by their race, and also proud to be British.

Its not obvious to 2 of the 5 Reform MPs elected last year.

Malmesbury

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Because it is hitting larger and larger numbers of people where they live - Farcebook, Twatter and now Wikipedia.

Casino_Royale

Foxy said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

I agree. Between the price difference of pubs and off sales, and the preference for screen based lives over meeting in person pubs are facing an uphill battle. The best may well survive, but many won't.

Both the Jolly Farmer and Queens Head have shut near me in the last 6 months.

They are still struggling. HMG must make it easier for publicans.

A_View_From_Cumbria5

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

That is because it is bad legislation which, like the Inheritance Tax Proposals will be repealed.

Carthage and Keir Starmer must be destroyed

Barnesian

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

As well as social change, the big killer is ever higher turn over taxes which they can't escape, and of course cost of living / inflation it very expensive to go for a pint even of coke cola.

Sunday lunch in a pub for 4 now can easily set you back £100-150 now without drinking.

There are about 40,000 pubs in England and Wales.
Last year 400 closed (1%) so not a fast decline.
16 new community pubs opened in 2023.

Nigelb

.

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

Smart51 said:

Hopefully the mid terms will be a disaster for Trump, which will embolden some in the rest of the Republican party to move against him, or at least stand up to him.

The issue is that for the MAGA madness to be if not stopped at least seriously hindered the Republicans need to lose the Senate, and that seems very unlikely indeed. Even on a pretty good night the Dems would pick up at most three seats under normal circumstances on that map. And they need four. For that to happen the Republicans need to be more underwater than Numenor in the Akallabeth and I don't see it even on these polls.

If, and it's a big if, Ken Paxton were to beat out Cornyn for the Republican nomination in Texas, then it's possible.

Most likely, the Dems will gain Maine and North Carolina.

Then there are two states where the Democrats have a chance: Iowa, where Joni Ernst seems to have an electoral death wish. (And where I can't help feel the Mexican Coke moves won't go down well.) And Ohio, if (and only if) Sherrod Brown is the Democratic candidate.

Like you, I think three is probably a realistic limit for the Dems: Maine, North Carolina and Iowa.

But if Paxton wins the nomination in Texas... oh boy...

There's also an argument that you need to go back to 2018 - the last midterm with a GOP President - for the purpose of extrapolations.

The Dems were a lot closer in that race - and Beto O'Rourke gained a largely undeserved reputation as a strong candidate.

It's hard to call, as a lot else has changed, but Texas might be a lot closer, if the Democrats nominate a strong candidate (by no means a certainty).

FrancisUrquhart

Barnesian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

As well as social change, the big killer is ever higher turn over taxes which they can't escape, and of course cost of living / inflation it very expensive to go for a pint even of coke cola.

Sunday lunch in a pub for 4 now can easily set you back £100-150 now without drinking.

There are about 40,000 pubs in England and Wales.
Last year 400 closed (1%) so not a fast decline.
16 new community pubs opened in 2023.

Yes, but it is consistent trend....

Recent figures from the British Beer and Pub Association show that pubs will close at the rate of one a day in the UK during 2025. This is just the latest chapter in a familiar story – more than a quarter of British pubs have closed since 2000.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/pubs-closed-uk-beer-british-cost-b2789934.html

There are social trends and there big rise in turn over taxes. It is extremely difficult to just be a boozer these days, you have to nail the food side of things to give yourself a chance. Nightclubs are way down as well.

Some of it is like trying to be King Canute, but its laughable that governments big idea to address this is some minor tweak to Nimby complaints.

FrancisUrquhart

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

I agree. Between the price difference of pubs and off sales, and the preference for screen based lives over meeting in person pubs are facing an uphill battle. The best may well survive, but many won't.

Both the Jolly Farmer and Queens Head have shut near me in the last 6 months.

They are still struggling. HMG must make it easier for publicans.

Checks what the government have done...minimum wage up....NI up....business rates up massively....but its ok they are going to stop nimbys being able to get so shitty about a bit of noise. Sorted....

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Yes, universal loathing, and with justification

How did the Tories create something this monstrous? Allowing Labour to censor the entire internet?

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform

nova

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Yes, universal loathing, and with justification

How did the Tories create something this monstrous? Allowing Labour to censor the entire internet?

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform

But surely you want to protect are kids?

Foxy

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

I agree. Between the price difference of pubs and off sales, and the preference for screen based lives over meeting in person pubs are facing an uphill battle. The best may well survive, but many won't.

Both the Jolly Farmer and Queens Head have shut near me in the last 6 months.

They are still struggling. HMG must make it easier for publicans.

A lot of it is cultural change. 30 years ago the pubs* near my hospital were full at going home time, and long into the evening. Most have now shut and as often as not the only survivor has only one or two customers when I go in. Slightly further off the Bricklayers is busy, with its West African menu and Afrobeat music nights. Quite good fun, but I do feel rather old there amongst the Nigerian students.

There were a half dozen, 2 actually owned by the hospital.

Barnesian

FrancisUrquhart said:

Barnesian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

As well as social change, the big killer is ever higher turn over taxes which they can't escape, and of course cost of living / inflation it very expensive to go for a pint even of coke cola.

Sunday lunch in a pub for 4 now can easily set you back £100-150 now without drinking.

There are about 40,000 pubs in England and Wales.
Last year 400 closed (1%) so not a fast decline.
16 new community pubs opened in 2023.

Yes, but it is consistent trend....

Recent figures from the British Beer and Pub Association show that pubs will close at the rate of one a day in the UK during 2025. This is just the latest chapter in a familiar story – more than a quarter of British pubs have closed since 2000.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/pubs-closed-uk-beer-british-cost-b2789934.html

One a day from a total of 40,000 pubs means it will take more than 100 years for them all to close. But new ones are also opening and many are changing in style.
It's certainly a downward trend, with many causes but I don't think it is sudden extinction. There are still many to choose from.

FrancisUrquhart

I had a chuckle at a tweet I saw....

Last night I went to a very expensive live karaoke event, I have to say the backing band were quite good.

I think Oasis might be singlehandedly trying to save the British mood and economy via the medium of member-berries.

kjh

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Yes, universal loathing, and with justification

How did the Tories create something this monstrous? Allowing Labour to censor the entire internet?

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform

Hmm I think you might get more censorship with a Reform government

Barnesian

On topic - I think a useful proxy for the midterms is how likely is it that Trump will be impeached before 2028.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.241116227

Currently "Yes" is 2.3, implying a 43% probability of impeachment.

I interpret that as a 60% chance that Democrats will take the house in 2028, coupled with a 70% chance that, if they do, they will impeach him.

Of course he won't be convicted and removed from office if the Senate remains in Republican hands so it will just be symbolic. It might also feed his story that "they're all out to get me" which Democrats may choose not to feed.

OldKingCole

Barnesian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Barnesian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

As well as social change, the big killer is ever higher turn over taxes which they can't escape, and of course cost of living / inflation it very expensive to go for a pint even of coke cola.

Sunday lunch in a pub for 4 now can easily set you back £100-150 now without drinking.

There are about 40,000 pubs in England and Wales.
Last year 400 closed (1%) so not a fast decline.
16 new community pubs opened in 2023.

Yes, but it is consistent trend....

Recent figures from the British Beer and Pub Association show that pubs will close at the rate of one a day in the UK during 2025. This is just the latest chapter in a familiar story – more than a quarter of British pubs have closed since 2000.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/pubs-closed-uk-beer-british-cost-b2789934.html

One a day from a total of 40,000 pubs means it will take more than 100 years for them all to close. But new ones are also opening and many are changing in style.
It's certainly a downward trend, with many causes but I don't think it is sudden extinction. There are still many to choose from.

A few years ago there were about 20 pubs in the small town where `I live. Now there are only three but a wine and cocktail bar has opened, next, incidentally, to one of the pubs. The pub I usually go to seems to rely during the day, at lunchtimes anyway, on about half-a-dozen regulars, drinking beer at £4.80 per pint.

Cicero

kjh said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Yes, universal loathing, and with justification

How did the Tories create something this monstrous? Allowing Labour to censor the entire internet?

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform

Hmm I think you might get more censorship with a Reform government

Well quite, Non sequiturs are a speciality of Faragists: "we lied about any benefits of Brexile, but you can believe us now..."

Erm... No thanks.

MattW

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

I agree. Between the price difference of pubs and off sales, and the preference for screen based lives over meeting in person pubs are facing an uphill battle. The best may well survive, but many won't.

Both the Jolly Farmer and Queens Head have shut near me in the last 6 months.

They are still struggling. HMG must make it easier for publicans.

A lot of it is cultural change. 30 years ago the pubs* near my hospital were full at going home time, and long into the evening. Most have now shut and as often as not the only survivor has only one or two customers when I go in. Slightly further off the Bricklayers is busy, with its West African menu and Afrobeat music nights. Quite good fun, but I do feel rather old there amongst the Nigerian students.

There were a half dozen, 2 actually owned by the hospital.

Given Leicester demographics, and Leicester hospital demographics, how much of that is due to ethnic communities increasing who do not frequent pubs?

FrancisUrquhart

Who is doing his PR?

Gregg Wallace: I was groped on MasterChef

Former Masterchef host Gregg Wallace has claimed he was groped on the hit series and has pledged to never watch the TV show again.

The 60-year-old presenter further alleged he was accused of wrongdoing by women with an “agenda” against him and said he had little interest in returning to television although he feared for his financial future.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/26/gregg-wallace-i-was-groped-on-masterchef/

Barnesian

I have eighteen pubs within easy walking distance. Ten in Barnes and eight just across the river in Hammersmith.
They are busy. You usually need to book to get a table for a meal or even a drink outside at the riverside pubs.
Maybe Barnes is a particularly boozy place. Or maybe it's because you can walk home, or catch a bus.

My nearest pub is literally 30 paces from my front door (60 on the way back).

Theuniondivvie

kjh said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Yes, universal loathing, and with justification

How did the Tories create something this monstrous? Allowing Labour to censor the entire internet?

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform

Hmm I think you might get more censorship with a Reform government

How can you say that? MAGA (the Proto Reform) are all about free speech and haven't censored anything at all.

Theuniondivvie

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Yes, universal loathing, and with justification

How did the Tories create something this monstrous? Allowing Labour to censor the entire internet?

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform

It's getting hard(arf) to look at porn now.

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform.


Bit of rain in the air.

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform.


I'm bored.

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform.

Etc.

MattW

OldKingCole said:

Barnesian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Barnesian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

As well as social change, the big killer is ever higher turn over taxes which they can't escape, and of course cost of living / inflation it very expensive to go for a pint even of coke cola.

Sunday lunch in a pub for 4 now can easily set you back £100-150 now without drinking.

There are about 40,000 pubs in England and Wales.
Last year 400 closed (1%) so not a fast decline.
16 new community pubs opened in 2023.

Yes, but it is consistent trend....

Recent figures from the British Beer and Pub Association show that pubs will close at the rate of one a day in the UK during 2025. This is just the latest chapter in a familiar story – more than a quarter of British pubs have closed since 2000.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/pubs-closed-uk-beer-british-cost-b2789934.html

One a day from a total of 40,000 pubs means it will take more than 100 years for them all to close. But new ones are also opening and many are changing in style.
It's certainly a downward trend, with many causes but I don't think it is sudden extinction. There are still many to choose from.

A few years ago there were about 20 pubs in the small town where `I live. Now there are only three but a wine and cocktail bar has opened, next, incidentally, to one of the pubs. The pub I usually go to seems to rely during the day, at lunchtimes anyway, on about half-a-dozen regulars, drinking beer at £4.80 per pint.

On pubs, here is a page about the ~20 which have closed since 2000 in the mining village now a suburb (~8k people, more now with newbuild) where Lee Anderson was a Councillor, Huthwaite. 4 went in Covid. A number have become minimarts eg Tesco. And I suspect that transport patterns (ie driving everywhere) and Macarthur Glen one mile away with a food hall and 4 restaurants including a big Wagamama may have had an impact.

https://www.huthwaite-online.net/portal/pubs/closed.php

OldKingCole

Theuniondivvie said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Yes, universal loathing, and with justification

How did the Tories create something this monstrous? Allowing Labour to censor the entire internet?

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform

It's getting hard(arf) to look at porn now.

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform.


Bit of rain in the air.

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform.


I'm bored.

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform.

Etc.

I've yet to find ANY reason, good or otherwise, to vote Reform.

rkrkrk

On pubs, I don't have data but certainly have impression that they have gotten a lot larger.

Probably the economics are a lot better, both in terms of economies of scale but also being able to meet highly variable demand, e.g. during sporting events.

The current Labour govt seems (surprisingly to me) pro pub. They cut beer duty unexpectedly. I'd like to see them be brave on Minimum alcohol pricing too which is probably helpful to pubs.

FrancisUrquhart

rkrkrk said:

On pubs, I don't have data but certainly have impression that they have gotten a lot larger.

Probably the economics are a lot better, both in terms of economies of scale but also being able to meet highly variable demand, e.g. during sporting events.

The current Labour govt seems (surprisingly to me) pro pub. They cut beer duty unexpectedly. I'd like to see them be brave on Minimum alcohol pricing too which is probably helpful to pubs.

LOL....the cut in beer duty of 1p didn't even touch the sides of all the other tax rises they announced on pubs at the same time. It was classic political bullshit (and yes all chancellors do it).

MattW

Theuniondivvie said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have noted a thing that seems to be uniting the lefties and right wing tw@tterai, moaning about the online safety bill.

Yes, universal loathing, and with justification

How did the Tories create something this monstrous? Allowing Labour to censor the entire internet?

It’s yet another reason to vote Reform

Hmm I think you might get more censorship with a Reform government

How can you say that? MAGA (the Proto Reform) are all about free speech and haven't censored anything at all.

Trump, of course, has in NO WAY used his corrupt political influence to take Colbert off the air.

We'll see what happens to South Park.

FrancisUrquhart

Exposing the truth behind the viral Gaza 'famine' image of Mohammed Al-Matouq.

https://x.com/mishtal/status/1949363283774873710

Now I have some serious issues with some of the takes in this thread, but it does appear that the media haven't been 100% honest. The fact a sick kid hasn't got access to medication isn't something you can just wash over as the author of the thread does, but there is some additional context that has been missing.

MattW

Barnesian said:

I have eighteen pubs within easy walking distance. Ten in Barnes and eight just across the river in Hammersmith.
They are busy. You usually need to book to get a table for a meal or even a drink outside at the riverside pubs.
Maybe Barnes is a particularly boozy place. Or maybe it's because you can walk home, or catch a bus.

My nearest pub is literally 30 paces from my front door (60 on the way back).

What's easy walking distance in metres (or yards), or time?

Foxy

MattW said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Pubs and venues to be protected from noise complaints
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwye5jx8y3go

I am not sure that is the key issue why there are less boozers every year.....

It's certainly not - it's one of those social and cultural changes which has gone under the radar over the past 50 years or so. IN my part of East London, the traditional pub on every corner is now a corner shop where you can of course buy alcohol if you want.

I like pubs but the pubs I like have good food including a decent breakfast, comfortable seats and room to spread the Racing Post to mull over the day's equine entertainment. If I were in New Zealand, it would have a TAB (Tote) counter where I can place my bets and watch the races (pub meets betting shop). I'm not interested in ales with Dickensian names or any of that nonsense nor do I want a pub that's a night club by any other name or some venue on folk tryout night.

Fewer and better would be my conclusion on pubs these days - I also have to say the biggest revolution has been in the quality of pub food and I don't just mean the gastropub.

I agree. Between the price difference of pubs and off sales, and the preference for screen based lives over meeting in person pubs are facing an uphill battle. The best may well survive, but many won't.

Both the Jolly Farmer and Queens Head have shut near me in the last 6 months.

They are still struggling. HMG must make it easier for publicans.

A lot of it is cultural change. 30 years ago the pubs* near my hospital were full at going home time, and long into the evening. Most have now shut and as often as not the only survivor has only one or two customers when I go in. Slightly further off the Bricklayers is busy, with its West African menu and Afrobeat music nights. Quite good fun, but I do feel rather old there amongst the Nigerian students.

There were a half dozen, 2 actually owned by the hospital.

Given Leicester demographics, and Leicester hospital demographics, how much of that is due to ethnic communities increasing who do not frequent pubs?

It is noticeable that the busy pub is the one that recognises demographic change and adapted.

Its not just that the ethnic demography of hospital staff has changed, though that is certainly part of it, it is also that staff rarely live on site in doctors or nurses accommodation and probably most of all it is a change of attitude to getting pissed. Neither Doctors nor nurses drink as much as when arms Foxy and I were young.

malcolmg

Battlebus said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

There is a cap of the amount of benefits you can receive at £25000 so a single mum with 2 children are on half the minimum required - unless of course the children or adults are diagnosed with a condition that allows them to claim non-means tested benefits like DLA/carer's allowance. Google says:

The number of children in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) has more than doubled in England and Wales over the past decade, rising from approximately 333,000 in 2013 to 682,000 in 2023. This is equivalent to around 6% of children aged 0–15 as of 2023, compared to only 3% in 2013.

If you try to hold down benefits lower than a level needed to raise children, the system bends towards finding other ways.

Benefits system is a shambles, paying people much more to sit on their butts is mental. Hence we now have 26% disabled , etc etc. Until they start sorting out just giving away money , paying benefits and 4 * hotels, laptops & iphones to illegal immigrants etc the country will just keep going down the toilet.

No_Offence_Alan

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

IanB2 said:

By the way, it costs a fortune, but I have heard great things about the experience they lay on for kids at the two LaplandUK sites, in Ascot and Manchester. The entry fee alone is usually over £100 per head but they book up ever so fast. Anyone been?

Talking of the cost of children, striking chart in today's Sunday Times;



https://www.thetimes.com/article/f4ddc30a-b20c-4bfb-9e86-3d871cf267d6?shareToken=4ced4db14cfb28bf979d2a037148c6c7

That feels more relevant to the lack of children being born than certain poster's proclivities.

Yes we need more funding for childcare but even fifty years ago there was very little childcare, 100 years ago next to none, no minimum wage and lower average earnings than now and parents had more children than they do now

Have you heard about contraception?

OldKingCole

MattW said:

Barnesian said:

I have eighteen pubs within easy walking distance. Ten in Barnes and eight just across the river in Hammersmith.
They are busy. You usually need to book to get a table for a meal or even a drink outside at the riverside pubs.
Maybe Barnes is a particularly boozy place. Or maybe it's because you can walk home, or catch a bus.

My nearest pub is literally 30 paces from my front door (60 on the way back).

What's easy walking distance in metres (or yards), or time?

I've had major problems with my balance over the past few years, and they're worse since my cervical myelopathy operation. So the physio suggested I try and walk 1000 steps a day, admittedly with a walking aid. To and from the nearest pub is 500, according my pedometer.
So, it's purely medicinal, honest!

(No, I don't, but there's amusement for my friends when I do turn up.)

Theuniondivvie

FrancisUrquhart said:

Exposing the truth behind the viral Gaza 'famine' image of Mohammed Al-Matouq.

https://x.com/mishtal/status/1949363283774873710

Now I have some issues with some of the takes in this thread, but it does appear that the media haven't been 100% honest. The fact a sick kid hasn't got access to medication isn't something you can just wash over as the author of the thread does, but there is some additional context that has been missing.

Thank goodness there are trustworthy commentators like David Collier and Richard Kemp to tell us what’s REALLY happening in Gaza.

malcolmg

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

WRT Texas, the growth in the Hispanic population is offset, by more of them voting Republican

I'm not sure why Hispanics wouldn't eventually behave like other Whites.

Italian Americans, German Americans.. they all used to be treated differently from WASPs, until they didn’t.

All immigrant groups behave more like the majority population over time and generations, and not just in voting patterns.

It is quite obvious here too.

Some perhaps , certainly not all.