I'd want to examine that figure in more detail. Is it London average price vs earnings of the actual first-time buyers? The profile of earnings in London is (for better or worse) very uneven; there are a lot of young bankers, lawyers and accountants earning megabucks, probably with parents who have earned megabucks as well. There will also be lots of people who earn nothing like enough to buy a property in London. With very limited supply, and lots of demand from abroad, I'm not convinced therefore that the marginal price-point is going to depend on the average (presumably mean) earnings of people in London. That ratio could thus be very misleading as a measure of how sustainable the prices are.
I'd want to examine that figure in more detail. Is it London average price vs earnings of the actual first-time buyers? The profile of earnings in London is (for better or worse) very uneven; there are a lot of young bankers, lawyers and accountants earning megabucks, probably with parents who have earned megabucks as well. There will also be lots of people who earn nothing like enough to buy a property in London. With very limited supply, and lots of demand from abroad, 'm not sure therefore that the marginal price-point is going to depend on the average (presumably mean) earnings of people in London. That ratio could therefore be very misleading as a measure of how sustainable the prices are.
Depends how you define "mega-bucks". To afford an average flat in a nice area in central London you are taking about £1m now. You probably need to be 7-8 years into your banking/legal career at one of the top firms to earn £250,000 - which would bring it down to the UK average. I would be very worried if there are juniors (say 3-4 years into their career) on £150,000 (£75K+75K bonus) buying £1m flats with leverage.
Depends how you define "mega-bucks". To afford an average flat in a nice area in central London you are taking about £1m now. You probably need to be 7-8 years into your banking/legal career at one of the top firms to earn £250,000 - which would bring it down to the UK average. I would be very worried if there are juniors (say 3-4 years into their career) on £150,000 (£75K+75K bonus) buying £1m flats with leverage.
They're not buying in what you would regard as nice areas of central London, but in Battersea and Fulham and Twickenham, where you don't need a million quid to get a reasonable flat (and there are two earners, no children, probably).
Re recent discussions on VI and betting on Tory MPs outbreeding the proverbial pandas, this might be worth a read (I know it is WoS and anathema for some, but as it is based in part on a Scotsman story the anathemata cancel out):
It also comments on Tory Party members' backing for Yes at 22%, as documented by the Tories themselves, admittedly in a ?voodoo poll - and admittedly including EWNi members.
In the event that there is a 'no' vote, Cameron's should go for the gracious statesman response.
- Gratified by the support and affection demonstrated - Recognition of the critical role played by Scotland in the UK - Clear that there is substantial dissatifaction with the current arrangements - Need to address this in the interests of a stable long-term relationship - Also need to be fair to the peoples of Wales, Northern Ireland and England - Hence propose a Royal Commission, if the Conservatives are re-elected in 2015, to make a agree a proposal for a comprehensive new settlement in the first half of the parliament, to be approved by a UK-wide referendum
Statesman like, gracious, meets the implied promise to the Scots, fair to the other members of the UK, allows the West Lothian question to be addressed, perhaps creates an incentive for Scots to vote Tory rather than Labour.
Tactical advantages
- if Cameron puts out his views on the frame of reference in advance of the election, then Labour needs to react; may put WLQ on the table for them as well - Potentially creates space for a more dramatic HoL reform than Clegg's bastard child. And one that could be wrapped into a broader question in a vote. Same goes for electoral reform. Perhaps increases scope to do a deal with the LibDems after 2015 - Think of all the fun threads we can have... AV and Scotland and HoL reform in one...
Interesting. And note also it postpones real action, perhaps to dump it in the hands of a Labour government, and therefore also any replay of the indy referendum if the promises, implied or not, are [edit! not] met. Though I can't but think that he would need to show outstanding leadership to achieve that on both sides of the issue, and that it would have been so much simpler for him to go for the devomax option and cut the ground from under the SNP's feet a year and more ago with something along the above.
The line from the BBC and most other media today has focused on "holding Farage to account over his Putin remarks". Thus there seems to be a general expectation that Farage will be on the ropes pummeled by Clegg.
My fear for Farage has been that he has not invested enugh effort into preparing his case and points ahead of the debates. We will shortly see if Farage has invested the effort. If he went for Clegg would it be on the "trust" matter? Take the tuition u-turn and add in all the duplicity and back stabbing that the LDs have done in coalition? I doubt that he will.
Are we all hyped to the rafters for the big debate at 7.00pm ?!?!?!?
I'm all a quiver in anticipation ....
My tenterhooks are in a laver of discombobulation ....
Yes a decision has to made .....
I must debate - madeira or port for after dinner libation ....
Choices .. choices .. choices ..
Have some madeira, m'dear. You really have nothing to fear. I'm not trying to tempt you, that wouldn't be right, You shouldn't drink spirits at this time of night. Have some madeira, m'dear. It's really much nicer than beer. I don't care for sherry, one cannot drink stout, And port is a wine I can well do without... It's simply a case of chacun a son gout Have some madeira, m'dear.
Take whatever measure you like in London - first time buyers/median house price to median earnings, or any quartile and the numbers are between 7 and 10 to 1 and at historic highs. In part reflects London's growth (economic & demographic) and very significant supply side constraints but whatever way you look at it its a big risk. And because of the proportion of high value property in London and the South East a bubble only here would be a systemic risk to UK Financial Services sector both on lending to buyers and developers. The only question is whether it is the MPC or the FPC which acts first, and how.
Some of you may be interested in my blog on this. I have found that the demographic profiles of seats where UKIP has won are not what you might expect. Here it is: www.election-data.blogspot.co.uk
Comments
My fear for Farage has been that he has not invested enugh effort into preparing his case and points ahead of the debates. We will shortly see if Farage has invested the effort. If he went for Clegg would it be on the "trust" matter? Take the tuition u-turn and add in all the duplicity and back stabbing that the LDs have done in coalition? I doubt that he will.
You accused me of posting inaccurate stats.
This is what I posted:
' The OMS data stretches back to 1971 for hourly productivity so that's six groups of seven years, the productivity increases for each group being:
1971-1978 +18%
1978-1985 +19%
1985-1992 +20%
1992-1999 +22%
1999-2006 +19%
2006-2013 -1% '
This is the link to the ONS data:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=LZVB&dataset=prdy&table-id=1
This is the data:
1971 40.7
1978 47.9
1985 57.1
1992 68.3
1999 83.6
2006 99.5
2013 98.9
I trust you have the ability to divide one number by another.
Once you have done so I expect an apology from you.
Have some madeira, m'dear. You really have nothing to fear.
I'm not trying to tempt you, that wouldn't be right,
You shouldn't drink spirits at this time of night.
Have some madeira, m'dear. It's really much nicer than beer.
I don't care for sherry, one cannot drink stout,
And port is a wine I can well do without...
It's simply a case of chacun a son gout
Have some madeira, m'dear.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/04/02/case-ukip-putin/