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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP is making a strategic mistake putting most of the focus on LAB voters for the May Euros

On Monday Farage told newsmen that “We are going to be spending the bulk of our money in the next eight weeks in the big cities in the Midlands and the north targeting the Labour vote”.

Read the full story here

volcanopete

First!!!

AlastairMeeks

I expect there's an area of double bluff about this. There's a strand of Conservative supporter who would not wish to think he (and it's nearly always a he) would be damaging his own party, but if he sees that voting UKIP is intended this time round to be an assault on Labour, might feel ready to join in.

Even if self-identifying Conservatives are UKIP's most promising target group, they might be most effectively harvested by UKIP looking as if it is targeting Labour.

Slackbladder

Are they? They've probably picked up most of the low-lying Con fruit already... time to go for the low lying labour fruit.

OblitusSumMe

Agree with antifrank - I think this is about positioning, and trying to avoid being seen as simply a right-of-Tory party.

Cookie

Alternatively, could it be that Labour- or non-voters, especially in the north, are where the next untapped market for UKIP comes from - and that they've exhausted all the potential Tory-UKIP switchers?

El_Capitano

Another vote of agreement with antifrank. I will be very interested to see if UKIP's actual campaigning priorities reflect Farage's rhetoric, but I suspect they won't.

dyedwoolie

Beside, UKIP want to be a political force, not the angry wing of the Tory party. They want to become the party of the disillusioned worker, like Labour was before it disappeared up Blairs posterior and became the party of special interests and client votes. They are certain to advance at this election, so building beyond their obvious target group is sensible.

DavidL

Yep, yet another agreement with antifrank. The tory claim is vote UKIP get Labour. What better response than to claim to be gunning for Labour yourself even if it is almost entirely rhetoric and nonsense?

When have UKIP ever troubled themselves about these fact things? In fairness when has any minority party? Winning here anyone?

Sunil_Prasannan

It would make sense to have a Eurosceptic party that can appeal to both traditional Right and traditional Left. Bob Crow (RIP) once set up his own Eurosceptic party, but it was set too far to the Left.

AndyJS

Maybe Farage believes he already has most of the Tory voters he's going to get in the bag and it's Labour voters who make up the bulk of possible converts although their numbers may be smaller.

Edit: I see Cookie has made the same point.

dyedwoolie

Garages plan must sure
Y be to win the Euros and maintain a high polling position so that a grand deal can be made with the Tories, keeping Labour out and handing UKIP a handful of seats?
That's what Jesus would do, anyway

BobaFett

Dunces!

Richard_Nabavi

Whilst it would be foolish to disagree with antifrank, there is another possible angle, which is as follows: looking at the d'Hondt electoral system for the Euros, it may be that UKIP have concluded that they are already on course to win N seats, but that to win more than that would require eating into the Tory vote in the South to an implausible degree, whereas there is a smaller marginal improvement required to win further seats in the Midlands and North. In other words, winning votes from Labour supporters outside the South East might be disproportionately effective in terms of winning seats, even if somewhat harder per voter.

I don't know whether this is the case (paging Rod Crosby!), but it would be a possible explanation for the allocation of resources indicated.

MrsB

while it is tempting to agree with antifrank, I think that analysis is based on what a traditional party might think of to do or to represent themselves as doing. I am not sure UKIP thinks about things in that sort of sophisticated way. Whilst Mr Farage does seem to think about projecting his own image as he wants to be perceived, the rest of his party don't seem to know anything about that sort of thing.

AlastairMeeks

Off topic, I see that there is a twitter campaign to put pressure on Air Mauritius not to participate in a deportation. It all seems very muddle-headed to me. But perhaps someone else can explain what's so special about the case of a young woman who arrived only 18 months ago, who claimed asylum and who lost her case.

edmundintokyo

Wouldn't the northern Labour seats be places where the BNP was strong last time? Farage can't really say this but since the BNP seem to have fallen over UKIP would be well placed to scoop up their votes. Even if it doesn't result in UKIP seats, it's in UKIP's interests to give the BNP a kicking while they're down, which eliminates competition as well as being a noble goal in its own right.

Anorak

antifrank said:

Off topic, I see that there is a twitter campaign to put pressure on Air Mauritius not to participate in a deportation. It all seems very muddle-headed to me. But perhaps someone else can explain what's so special about the case of a young woman who arrived only 18 months ago, who claimed asylum and who lost her case.

Is she attractive and well-spoken? Is she claiming to have been abused? Certain types of people seem to attract a disproportionate amount of internet "help".

Richard_Nabavi

BTW, I see that Hollande's latest wheeze to improve the competitiveness of French industry and to revive the French economy is to promote Arnaud Montebourg:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/02/uk-france-government-montebourg-idUKBREA310T920140402

I think that comes into the 'you couldn't make it up' category.

isam

edmundintokyo said:

Wouldn't the northern Labour seats be places where the BNP was strong last time? Farage can't really say this but since the BNP seem to have fallen over UKIP would be well placed to scoop up their votes. Even if it doesn't result in UKIP seats, it's in UKIP's interests to give the BNP a kicking while they're down, which eliminates competition as well as being a noble goal in its own right.

Farage did say just that on Monday...

"I would think we have probably taken a third of the BNP vote directly from them, I don't think anyone has done more, apart from Nick Griffin on Question Time, to damage the BNP than Ukip and I am quite proud of that."

He also answered OGH's point...

"Conservatives who are going to vote for Ukip, or lend their vote for Ukip on May 22, who live in Dorset, have made their minds up already," Farage said.

"If we are to overhaul the Labour Party and win the European elections and strike body blow to Miliband in terms of his credibility as a winner, we will do it in the Midlands."


http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/31/ukip-nigel-farage-bnp_n_5062951.html

AndyJS

"Putin could invade Ukraine within a week warns Nato chief":

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-could-invade-ukraine-within-a-week-warns-nato-chief-9232269.html

CD13

I think Ukip have been saying this for some time. I'd assumed it was aimed at the large group of Labour supporters who vote tribally without really considering any other option.

Whether they'll prise the Mrs Duffys away is another matter, but the Labour group around here have just spent money on a four page pullout in the local paper which majored on attacking Farage. So they must be concerned..

Slackbladder

antifrank said:

Off topic, I see that there is a twitter campaign to put pressure on Air Mauritius not to participate in a deportation. It all seems very muddle-headed to me. But perhaps someone else can explain what's so special about the case of a young woman who arrived only 18 months ago, who claimed asylum and who lost her case.

Most people would love a plane ticket to Mauritius....

Morris_Dancer

Mr. JS, is that 'could' as a theoretical possibility, or 'could' as something that could really happen?

If it did, I wonder if (rightly or wrongly) Farage's remarks on Putin would come back to haunt him.

Reminds me, writ small, of when Bernie Ecclestone praised Hitler for being able to get things done.

Edited extra bit: to aid moderators, here's a link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Ecclestone#Hitler_controversy_and_anti-semitism

dugarbandier

CD13 said:

I think Ukip have been saying this for some time. I'd assumed it was aimed at the large group of Labour supporters who vote tribally without really considering any other option.

or the Labour supporters who haven't voted in a few years?

taffys

I read that the dry runs for Ed Miliband's policies for a better Britain are not going well in Venezuela.

Government imposed price freezes on supermarkets ''to help the poor'' are leading to huge shortages, rationing, hoarding, black market activity and food riots.

Sunil_Prasannan

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. JS, is that 'could' as a theoretical possibility, or 'could' as something that could really happen?

If it did, I wonder if (rightly or wrongly) Farage's remarks on Putin would come back to haunt him.

Reminds me, writ small, of when Bernie Ecclestone praised Hitler for being able to get things done.

Edited extra bit: to aid moderators, here's a link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Ecclestone#Hitler_controversy_and_anti-semitism

UKIP and Russia have a common foe - the EU!

CD13

Dugarbandier,

"or the Labour supporters who haven't voted in a few years?"

That could be it - this is a solid-red seat but now that Shaun the parachutist has stood down, it's become a woman-only selection. A few Labourites aren't happy - more so if a Blair babe gets the call.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Taffys, at the risk of being repetitive, the same observations was made by Ammianus Marcellinus in the 4th century when Julian the Apostate froze commodity prices. Ammianus, who is generally quite positive about Julian, basically says it was stupid because it was well-known such price-fixing could lead to shortages and even famine.

Edited extra bit: and if anyone is fool enough to raise the price freeze one supplier has announced, let us recall there is a vast yawning chasm of difference between a state dictating a price freeze and a price freeze being opted for freely. The difference between compulsion and choice is enormous.

johnstevens

I am surprised MS believes this line from UKIP, which is designed to address Conservative concerns over supporting them helping Labour: so as to ensure Conservatives do support UKIP.

rcs1000

taffys said:

I read that the dry runs for Ed Miliband's policies for a better Britain are not going well in Venezuela.

Government imposed price freezes on supermarkets ''to help the poor'' are leading to huge shortages, rationing, hoarding, black market activity and food riots.

Economics 101: if you set the price of something below the clearing price, then you will have shortages.

Stuart_Dickson

dyedwoolie said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

The SNP go joint FAV in Gordon:

SNP 11/8 (from 7/4)
LD 11/8 (from 5/4)
Lab 7/2 (from 3/1)
Con 20/1
UKIP 100/1

(Ladbrokes)

While you're here, I had forgotten about Angus. A possible tight one if the vote goes NO? Doesn't have the movement and Salmond unwind of B and B but the Tories remain close here.

It would take a very brave man (or a very long price) to bet against an SNP Hold in Angus.

What will be crucial is where those 4,000 Lib Dem voters from 2010 go. In Scotland they usually splinter in all directions, usually in the order: SNP, Lab, Grn, Con.

Angus - Result 2010

SNP (Mike Weir MP) 15,020
Con 11,738
Lab 6,535
LD 4,090
UKIP 577

Angus South - Result 2011

SNP (Graeme Dey MSP) 16,164
Con 5,581
Lab 3,703
Ind 1,321
LD 874

Angus North and Mearns ("Mearns" = "Kincardine" in Westminster terminology) - Result 2011

SNP (Nigel Don MSP) 13,660
Con 6,374
Lab 3,160
LD 1,726

johnstevens

Antifrank is right, I am surprised MS believes this line from UKIP, which is designed to address Conservative concerns over supporting them helping Labour: so as to ensure Conservatives do support UKIP

dyedwoolie

Stuart_Dickson said:

dyedwoolie said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

The SNP go joint FAV in Gordon:

SNP 11/8 (from 7/4)
LD 11/8 (from 5/4)
Lab 7/2 (from 3/1)
Con 20/1
UKIP 100/1

(Ladbrokes)

While you're here, I had forgotten about Angus. A possible tight one if the vote goes NO? Doesn't have the movement and Salmond unwind of B and B but the Tories remain close here.

It would take a very brave man (or a very long price) to bet against an SNP Hold in Angus.

What will be crucial is where those 4,000 Lib Dem voters from 2010 go. In Scotland they usually splinter in all directions, usually in the order: SNP, Lab, Grn, Con.

Angus - Result 2010

SNP (Mike Weir MP) 15,020
Con 11,738
Lab 6,535
LD 4,090
UKIP 577

Angus South - Result 2011

SNP (Graeme Dey MSP) 16,164
Con 5,581
Lab 3,703
Ind 1,321
LD 874

Angus North and Mearns ("Mearns" = "Kincardine" in Westminster terminology) - Result 2011

SNP (Nigel Don MSP) 13,660
Con 6,374
Lab 3,160
LD 1,726

8-10/1 might be value for me.

SouthamObserver

How will we know whether UKIP is successful if the Labour vote also goes up in the same areas?

UKIP is already pretty strong in the East Midlands. Getting a big vote in the West Midlands would be a pretty big achievement. There's no sign yet that they are trying around here.

glw

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

I read that the dry runs for Ed Miliband's policies for a better Britain are not going well in Venezuela.

Government imposed price freezes on supermarkets ''to help the poor'' are leading to huge shortages, rationing, hoarding, black market activity and food riots.

Economics 101: if you set the price of something below the clearing price, then you will have shortages.

Next up, Ed's brilliant fool-proof price freeze plan part II. Force businesses to sell at the frozen price.

peter_from_putney

FPT -

dyedwoolie : "You also get value for the likely Tory seat bracket in such circs of 201-250"

Covering this range of Tory seats involves betting on two bands to produce combined winning odds of only 11/4 , which is no sort of value imho.

OldKingCole

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

I read that the dry runs for Ed Miliband's policies for a better Britain are not going well in Venezuela.

Government imposed price freezes on supermarkets ''to help the poor'' are leading to huge shortages, rationing, hoarding, black market activity and food riots.

Economics 101: if you set the price of something below the clearing price, then you will have shortages.

The Thai government is in serious danger of alienating it’s support-base by similar policies. Which, of course, have the usual result.

dyedwoolie

peter_from_putney said:

FPT -

dyedwoolie : "You also get value for the likely Tory seat bracket in such circs of 201-250"

Covering this range of Tory seats involves betting on two bands to produce combined winning odds of only 11/4 , which is no sort of value imho.

Well, you take your pick of the two, surely based on how far you expect Labour to go?
Or you hedge against Lab short of OM by taking the odds on 250-275 CON

I'm not the worlds most sophisticated gambler

OldKingCole

Slackbladder said:

antifrank said:

Off topic, I see that there is a twitter campaign to put pressure on Air Mauritius not to participate in a deportation. It all seems very muddle-headed to me. But perhaps someone else can explain what's so special about the case of a young woman who arrived only 18 months ago, who claimed asylum and who lost her case.

Most people would love a plane ticket to Mauritius....

As I understand there is a question over the “justice” this young woman may or may not face, but the more urgent issue is that she’s almost finished her A level courses, is on track to do well and there are problems with her finishing them in Mauritius.

Charles

Slackbladder said:

Are they? They've probably picked up most of the low-lying Con fruit already... time to go for the low lying labour fruit.

Additionally, if you want to top the poll, surely it's better to attack your direct rival for that slot - every vote from Labour is worth 2 to UKIP in terms of their relative position (this assumes that the Tories are well back in third place)

isam

SouthamObserver said:

How will we know whether UKIP is successful if the Labour vote also goes up in the same areas?

UKIP is already pretty strong in the East Midlands. Getting a big vote in the West Midlands would be a pretty big achievement. There's no sign yet that they are trying around here.

Its difficult to quantify UKIP success because people always try to make it look like a failure

For instance, Wythenshawe was considered a failure for them and a success for Labour on this site, despite Labour getting 4700 fewer votes than 2010 and UKIP getting 2900 more

dugarbandier

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

I read that the dry runs for Ed Miliband's policies for a better Britain are not going well in Venezuela.

Government imposed price freezes on supermarkets ''to help the poor'' are leading to huge shortages, rationing, hoarding, black market activity and food riots.

Economics 101: if you set the price of something below the clearing price, then you will have shortages.

The Thai government is in serious danger of alienating it’s support-base by similar policies. Which, of course, have the usual result.

is that connected to the rice mortgage scheme? btw can any of the free-marketeers around here name a single free market in agriculture/food production? seems to me subsidies abound in almost everything grown. or am i wrong?

RodCrosby

Don't forget the BNP vote in 2009 was twice as big in the North and Midlands as it was in the South. Getting it to switch to UKIP would reap rewards in those regions. Didn't Farage say he was proud to have persuaded BNPers to back UKIP?

Neil

dugarbandier said:

seems to me subsidies abound in almost everything grown. or am i wrong?

Marijuana.

OldKingCole

dugarbandier said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

I read that the dry runs for Ed Miliband's policies for a better Britain are not going well in Venezuela.

Government imposed price freezes on supermarkets ''to help the poor'' are leading to huge shortages, rationing, hoarding, black market activity and food riots.

Economics 101: if you set the price of something below the clearing price, then you will have shortages.

The Thai government is in serious danger of alienating it’s support-base by similar policies. Which, of course, have the usual result.

is that connected to the rice mortgage scheme? btw can any of the free-marketeers around here name a single free market in agriculture/food production? seems to me subsidies abound in almost everything grown. or am i wrong?

Yup. As I understand it the Govt promised to buy all the rice that the farmers wished to sell it, at a price above the world market rate. Now they can’t/won’t pay. Fortunately for them my rice-farming co-in-laws apparently decided against participating.
Shall learn more of the details in a couple of weeks.

Charles

OldKingCole said:

Slackbladder said:

antifrank said:

Off topic, I see that there is a twitter campaign to put pressure on Air Mauritius not to participate in a deportation. It all seems very muddle-headed to me. But perhaps someone else can explain what's so special about the case of a young woman who arrived only 18 months ago, who claimed asylum and who lost her case.

Most people would love a plane ticket to Mauritius....

As I understand there is a question over the “justice” this young woman may or may not face, but the more urgent issue is that she’s almost finished her A level courses, is on track to do well and there are problems with her finishing them in Mauritius.

I didn't think it was a question of "justice" but more that they were facing threats from a family member. To me that should be a matter for the Mauritian police to protect them, not a question of asylum.

I could see an argument for a compassionate deferral of the deportation for 3 months (or whatever) so she can take her A levels. Once she is back home - assuming that her family is granted asylum - then she can apply as a normal immigrant or for a student visa like anyone else who wants to come to the UK.

rcs1000

Neil said:

dugarbandier said:

seems to me subsidies abound in almost everything grown. or am i wrong?

Marijuana.

The illegal status is a clear subsidy to existing growers and distributors, because - by discouraging corporate and legally concerned potential growers - it means the price is higher than it would otherwise be.

Or to put it another way, returns on investment are above the level they would be in a free market.

Charles

dugarbandier said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

I read that the dry runs for Ed Miliband's policies for a better Britain are not going well in Venezuela.

Government imposed price freezes on supermarkets ''to help the poor'' are leading to huge shortages, rationing, hoarding, black market activity and food riots.

Economics 101: if you set the price of something below the clearing price, then you will have shortages.

The Thai government is in serious danger of alienating it’s support-base by similar policies. Which, of course, have the usual result.

is that connected to the rice mortgage scheme? btw can any of the free-marketeers around here name a single free market in agriculture/food production? seems to me subsidies abound in almost everything grown. or am i wrong?

New Zealand lamb and butter, I think!

Gasman

Entirely off topic, a message for @edmundintokyo :
A few weeks back the "next favourite" link on your widget stopped working - it just links to the comment it's on, rather than the next one. Is that a problem on my PC/browser or a change in vanilla that's broken it?

Thanks

corporeal

rcs1000 said:

Neil said:

dugarbandier said:

seems to me subsidies abound in almost everything grown. or am i wrong?

Marijuana.

The illegal status is a clear subsidy to existing growers and distributors, because - by discouraging corporate and legally concerned potential growers - it means the price is higher than it would otherwise be.

Or to put it another way, returns on investment are above the level they would be in a free market.

Not to mention, tax free and doesn't have to conform to safety standards etc.

AlastairMeeks

Truffles appear to be unsubsidised, although there is a campaign to introduce subsidies for them.

dugarbandier

rcs1000 said:

Neil said:

dugarbandier said:

seems to me subsidies abound in almost everything grown. or am i wrong?

Marijuana.

The illegal status is a clear subsidy to existing growers and distributors, because - by discouraging corporate and legally concerned potential growers - it means the price is higher than it would otherwise be.

Or to put it another way, returns on investment are above the level they would be in a free market.

if there was a "like" button, i would have liked your post

since I'm now 2 sheets to the wind and philosphophical, would you fine fellows like to indicate the most perfect free markets in the world? (I don't have any agenda here, just musing)

taffys

New Zealand lamb and butter, I think!

I wonder what would happen to food prices globally if all subsidies were removed, everywhere.

My hunch is they would fluctuate much more. Initially drop as emerging countries were able to compete with Europeans and Americans....then rise after the latter stopped producing.

TOPPING

dugarbandier said:

rcs1000 said:

Neil said:

dugarbandier said:

seems to me subsidies abound in almost everything grown. or am i wrong?

Marijuana.

The illegal status is a clear subsidy to existing growers and distributors, because - by discouraging corporate and legally concerned potential growers - it means the price is higher than it would otherwise be.

Or to put it another way, returns on investment are above the level they would be in a free market.

if there was a "like" button, i would have liked your post

since I'm now 2 sheets to the wind and philosphophical, would you fine fellows like to indicate the most perfect free markets in the world? (I don't have any agenda here, just musing)

budget airline seats.

Anorak

taffys said:

New Zealand lamb and butter, I think!

I wonder what would happen to food prices globally if all subsidies were removed, everywhere.

My hunch is they would fluctuate much more. Initially drop as emerging countries were able to compete with Europeans and Americans....then rise after the latter stopped producing.

Prices would be a secondary consideration with all the riots, coups, revolutions, wars, and famines, I'd imagine.

taffys

Riots, coups, wars, and famines, I'd imagine.

Those already happen. My hunch is they'd just happen in different places.

HurstLlama

O/T

Many years ago Rowan Atkinson did a sketch based around Satan welcoming the day's new arrivals to hell. One bit that always got a huge cheer was when he made special mention of the pains he was going to inflict on people that killed whales. Well, I am going to suggest a new category of the worlds biggest bastards - vets.

As some of you may recall I am involved in a small local cat charity. The charity works just in the Mid-Sussex area and takes in, looks after, and finds new homes for stray/unwanted cats. When a cat comes into care it is examined by a vet, neutered, if not already, and of course any medical needs are attended to. I have just been told that the charity's vet's bill for the last financial year was £45,000.

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

OldKingCole

HurstLlama said:

O/T

Many years ago Rowan Atkinson did a sketch based around Satan welcoming the day's new arrivals to hell. One bit that always got a huge cheer was when he made special mention of the pains he was going to inflict on people that killed whales. Well, I am going to suggest a new category of the worlds biggest bastards - vets.

As some of you may recall I am involved in a small local cat charity. The charity works just in the Mid-Sussex area and takes in, looks after, and finds new homes for stray/unwanted cats. When a cat comes into care it is examined by a vet, neutered, if not already, and of course any medical needs are attended to. I have just been told that the charity's vet's bill for the last financial year was £45,000.

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

How much work does the vet actually have to do?

Stuart_Dickson

dyedwoolie said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

dyedwoolie said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

The SNP go joint FAV in Gordon:

SNP 11/8 (from 7/4)
LD 11/8 (from 5/4)
Lab 7/2 (from 3/1)
Con 20/1
UKIP 100/1

(Ladbrokes)

While you're here, I had forgotten about Angus. A possible tight one if the vote goes NO? Doesn't have the movement and Salmond unwind of B and B but the Tories remain close here.

It would take a very brave man (or a very long price) to bet against an SNP Hold in Angus.

What will be crucial is where those 4,000 Lib Dem voters from 2010 go. In Scotland they usually splinter in all directions, usually in the order: SNP, Lab, Grn, Con.

Angus - Result 2010

SNP (Mike Weir MP) 15,020
Con 11,738
Lab 6,535
LD 4,090
UKIP 577

Angus South - Result 2011

SNP (Graeme Dey MSP) 16,164
Con 5,581
Lab 3,703
Ind 1,321
LD 874

Angus North and Mearns ("Mearns" = "Kincardine" in Westminster terminology) - Result 2011

SNP (Nigel Don MSP) 13,660
Con 6,374
Lab 3,160
LD 1,726

8-10/1 might be value for me.

Sounds about right.

dugarbandier

taffys said:

New Zealand lamb and butter, I think!

I wonder what would happen to food prices globally if all subsidies were removed, everywhere.

My hunch is they would fluctuate much more. Initially drop as emerging countries were able to compete with Europeans and Americans....then rise after the latter stopped producing.

its a good question, and somewhat urgent given we do need to feed a few billion extra soonish. how inefficient do we think the current system is?

taffys

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

Alternatively you could rehouse all your cats with people on benefits, who get their animals' treatment free of charge at their PDSA.

An acquaintance works at one, and assures me they are good. They are particularly expert at dealing with the many expensive pedigree animals that spill out of the BMWs in the car park.

Gasman

rcs1000 said:

The illegal status is a clear subsidy to existing growers and distributors, because - by discouraging corporate and legally concerned potential growers - it means the price is higher than it would otherwise be.

Or to put it another way, returns on investment are above the level they would be in a free market.

But the growers' costs will also be increased by the illegal status - the risk of jail/confiscation of product etc are costs to them

Stuart_Dickson

With a thought to how well the SNP did in the "Kincardine" part of the constituency in 2011, one wonders if they might not be value at 8/1 for the Westminster seat?

Aberdeenshire West - Result 2011
SNP (Dennis Robertson MSP) 12,186
LD (defeated MSP Mike Rumbles) 8,074
Con 6,027
Lab 2,349

Angus North and Mearns ("Mearns" = "Kincardine" in Westminster terminology) - Result 2011
SNP (Nigel Don MSP) 13,660
Con 6,374
Lab 3,160
LD 1,726

Ladbrokes - West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
LD 8/11
Con 6/4
SNP 8/1
Lab 33/1
UKIP 100/1

Carnyx

HurstLlama said:

O/T

Many years ago Rowan Atkinson did a sketch based around Satan welcoming the day's new arrivals to hell. One bit that always got a huge cheer was when he made special mention of the pains he was going to inflict on people that killed whales. Well, I am going to suggest a new category of the worlds biggest bastards - vets.

As some of you may recall I am involved in a small local cat charity. The charity works just in the Mid-Sussex area and takes in, looks after, and finds new homes for stray/unwanted cats. When a cat comes into care it is examined by a vet, neutered, if not already, and of course any medical needs are attended to. I have just been told that the charity's vet's bill for the last financial year was £45,000.

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

How many moggies? Just trying to see how they compare with the Edinburgh lawyer I encountered recently ...

Charles

Anorak said:

taffys said:

New Zealand lamb and butter, I think!

I wonder what would happen to food prices globally if all subsidies were removed, everywhere.

My hunch is they would fluctuate much more. Initially drop as emerging countries were able to compete with Europeans and Americans....then rise after the latter stopped producing.

Prices would be a secondary consideration with all the riots, coups, revolutions, wars, and famines, I'd imagine.

I don't think that the West would stop producing.

Most of the land can be productively used - although some elements (e.g. hill farming) would probably die out. It's just it would be agribusiness rather than picturesque country folk in straw hats

Charles

HurstLlama said:

O/T

Many years ago Rowan Atkinson did a sketch based around Satan welcoming the day's new arrivals to hell. One bit that always got a huge cheer was when he made special mention of the pains he was going to inflict on people that killed whales. Well, I am going to suggest a new category of the worlds biggest bastards - vets.

As some of you may recall I am involved in a small local cat charity. The charity works just in the Mid-Sussex area and takes in, looks after, and finds new homes for stray/unwanted cats. When a cat comes into care it is examined by a vet, neutered, if not already, and of course any medical needs are attended to. I have just been told that the charity's vet's bill for the last financial year was £45,000.

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

Has anyone tried to get a volume discount from him? If you are paying rack rent I wouldn't be surprised. but you might want to think about calling CVS Group to see if they can do something from a CSR perspective.

If you are where I think you are, they have a clinic in Burgess Hill and another in Hassocks

www.cvsukltd.co.uk/ark_veterinary_group.htm

Anorak

HurstLlama said:

O/T

Many years ago Rowan Atkinson did a sketch based around Satan welcoming the day's new arrivals to hell. One bit that always got a huge cheer was when he made special mention of the pains he was going to inflict on people that killed whales. Well, I am going to suggest a new category of the worlds biggest bastards - vets.

As some of you may recall I am involved in a small local cat charity. The charity works just in the Mid-Sussex area and takes in, looks after, and finds new homes for stray/unwanted cats. When a cat comes into care it is examined by a vet, neutered, if not already, and of course any medical needs are attended to. I have just been told that the charity's vet's bill for the last financial year was £45,000.

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

Be a lot cheaper to hire a furrier to come in once a week with a mallet. If tim was still around, I'm sure he'd do it for free.

dyedwoolie

Stuart_Dickson said:

With a thought to how well the SNP did in the "Kincardine" part of the constituency in 2011, one wonders if they might not be value at 8/1 for the Westminster seat?

Aberdeenshire West - Result 2011
SNP (Dennis Robertson MSP) 12,186
LD (defeated MSP Mike Rumbles) 8,074
Con 6,027
Lab 2,349

Angus North and Mearns ("Mearns" = "Kincardine" in Westminster terminology) - Result 2011
SNP (Nigel Don MSP) 13,660
Con 6,374
Lab 3,160
LD 1,726

Ladbrokes - West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
LD 8/11
Con 6/4
SNP 8/1
Lab 33/1
UKIP 100/1

Yes, I fancy them to possibly pip the Tories here. Although they do vastly outperform in Scotlections, especially 2011. A Yes would make 8/1 generous, it's about right if no wins.

malcolmg

Interesting article here , good education for the southern unionists on here as to what is really happening in the far north.
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/03/31/the-better-together-campaign-crisis/

dyedwoolie

Dream scenario for Farage in 2015.
He wins say ten or so seats and lab/con tie on about 295, not enough Lib Dems to make. Coalition, scot nats sit it out after a yes.
Cameron proposes a national government with him at the head, Ed accepts on a one year program looking to a further election 2016. Austerity continues, economy bumbles along, opposition disappears.
UKIP win.
Fantasy is fun.

OldKingCole

Charles said:

HurstLlama said:

O/T

Many years ago Rowan Atkinson did a sketch based around Satan welcoming the day's new arrivals to hell. One bit that always got a huge cheer was when he made special mention of the pains he was going to inflict on people that killed whales. Well, I am going to suggest a new category of the worlds biggest bastards - vets.

As some of you may recall I am involved in a small local cat charity. The charity works just in the Mid-Sussex area and takes in, looks after, and finds new homes for stray/unwanted cats. When a cat comes into care it is examined by a vet, neutered, if not already, and of course any medical needs are attended to. I have just been told that the charity's vet's bill for the last financial year was £45,000.

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

Has anyone tried to get a volume discount from him? If you are paying rack rent I wouldn't be surprised. but you might want to think about calling CVS Group to see if they can do something from a CSR perspective.

If you are where I think you are, they have a clinic in Burgess Hill and another in Hassocks

www.cvsukltd.co.uk/ark_veterinary_group.htm

It’s not easy to qualify as a vet. There’s aren’t a lot of schools and it’s a popular subject. Consequently A level requirements are high. Then the basic course is at least 5 years, although I don’t think one has to subsequently do the supervised practice that a junior doctor has to.

Richard_Nabavi

Regarding West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, it depends hugely on Sir Robert Smith's incumbency advantage. I believe he is standing again (despite being diagnosed with the early stages of Parkinson's), which will probably mean that the LibDem vote holds up quite well. That being the case, I'm sceptical that there will be enough loose ex-LibDem votes to take the SNP from third place (on 16% in 2010) to beat both the Tories (30%) and the LibDems (38%).

If he were standing down, it might be in range for the SNP, but since he is not, it looks like a two-way LibDem/Tory fight. The Tories must be in with a good chance given that there will certainly be some leakage from the LibDems - just not enough to give the SNP a shout.

Flightpath

'in the big cities in the Midlands and the north targeting the Labour vote'

That should read 'targeting the anti-immigrant vote'. The poor man's Enoch Powell should be more honest about his motivations and his target audience.

Charles

OldKingCole said:

Charles said:

HurstLlama said:

O/T

Many years ago Rowan Atkinson did a sketch based around Satan welcoming the day's new arrivals to hell. One bit that always got a huge cheer was when he made special mention of the pains he was going to inflict on people that killed whales. Well, I am going to suggest a new category of the worlds biggest bastards - vets.

As some of you may recall I am involved in a small local cat charity. The charity works just in the Mid-Sussex area and takes in, looks after, and finds new homes for stray/unwanted cats. When a cat comes into care it is examined by a vet, neutered, if not already, and of course any medical needs are attended to. I have just been told that the charity's vet's bill for the last financial year was £45,000.

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

Has anyone tried to get a volume discount from him? If you are paying rack rent I wouldn't be surprised. but you might want to think about calling CVS Group to see if they can do something from a CSR perspective.

If you are where I think you are, they have a clinic in Burgess Hill and another in Hassocks

www.cvsukltd.co.uk/ark_veterinary_group.htm

It’s not easy to qualify as a vet. There’s aren’t a lot of schools and it’s a popular subject. Consequently A level requirements are high. Then the basic course is at least 5 years, although I don’t think one has to subsequently do the supervised practice that a junior doctor has to.

Additionally it is viewed as a second u/g degree, so none of the usual state financing mechanisms are available.

But if they are paying this vet £45,000 a year, then he is making a very decent living out of them for what will only be a proportion of his time and he can afford to give them a volume discount.

Anorak

Charles said:

OldKingCole said:

Charles said:

HurstLlama said:

O/T

Many years ago Rowan Atkinson did a sketch based around Satan welcoming the day's new arrivals to hell. One bit that always got a huge cheer was when he made special mention of the pains he was going to inflict on people that killed whales. Well, I am going to suggest a new category of the worlds biggest bastards - vets.

As some of you may recall I am involved in a small local cat charity. The charity works just in the Mid-Sussex area and takes in, looks after, and finds new homes for stray/unwanted cats. When a cat comes into care it is examined by a vet, neutered, if not already, and of course any medical needs are attended to. I have just been told that the charity's vet's bill for the last financial year was £45,000.

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

Has anyone tried to get a volume discount from him? If you are paying rack rent I wouldn't be surprised. but you might want to think about calling CVS Group to see if they can do something from a CSR perspective.

If you are where I think you are, they have a clinic in Burgess Hill and another in Hassocks

www.cvsukltd.co.uk/ark_veterinary_group.htm

It’s not easy to qualify as a vet. There’s aren’t a lot of schools and it’s a popular subject. Consequently A level requirements are high. Then the basic course is at least 5 years, although I don’t think one has to subsequently do the supervised practice that a junior doctor has to.

Additionally it is viewed as a second u/g degree, so none of the usual state financing mechanisms are available.

But if they are paying this vet £45,000 a year, then he is making a very decent living out of them for what will only be a proportion of his time and he can afford to give them a volume discount.

Maybe he does. Tricky to know without all the facts, i.e. the actual volume, the proportion of his time, the cost of medication, the opportunity cost of visiting the charity, etc, etc.
I'm sure he could afford to give a discount - but why on earth should he? Should GPs not charge the NHS for treating people on benefits? Or the elderly? Or the disabled?

Carnyx

Anorak said:

Charles said:

OldKingCole said:

Charles said:

HurstLlama said:

O/T

Many years ago Rowan Atkinson did a sketch based around Satan welcoming the day's new arrivals to hell. One bit that always got a huge cheer was when he made special mention of the pains he was going to inflict on people that killed whales. Well, I am going to suggest a new category of the worlds biggest bastards - vets.

As some of you may recall I am involved in a small local cat charity. The charity works just in the Mid-Sussex area and takes in, looks after, and finds new homes for stray/unwanted cats. When a cat comes into care it is examined by a vet, neutered, if not already, and of course any medical needs are attended to. I have just been told that the charity's vet's bill for the last financial year was £45,000.

So in your pantheon of anti-heroes I urge you to drop bankers, drop whalers, and replace them with vets.

Has anyone tried to get a volume discount from him? If you are paying rack rent I wouldn't be surprised. but you might want to think about calling CVS Group to see if they can do something from a CSR perspective.

If you are where I think you are, they have a clinic in Burgess Hill and another in Hassocks

www.cvsukltd.co.uk/ark_veterinary_group.htm

It’s not easy to qualify as a vet. There’s aren’t a lot of schools and it’s a popular subject. Consequently A level requirements are high. Then the basic course is at least 5 years, although I don’t think one has to subsequently do the supervised practice that a junior doctor has to.

Additionally it is viewed as a second u/g degree, so none of the usual state financing mechanisms are available.

But if they are paying this vet £45,000 a year, then he is making a very decent living out of them for what will only be a proportion of his time and he can afford to give them a volume discount.

Maybe he does. Tricky to know without all the facts, i.e. the actual volume, the proportion of his time, the cost of medication, the opportunity cost of visiting the charity, etc, etc.

And veterinary nurses and support staff.

Edit: and VAT?

HurstLlama

@Carynx, Mr. Cole,

We take in about 200 moggies a year (including kittens born on the premises), of those 90% are found new homes. So from the vet's bill perspective it works out at around £225 per cat. Now, that might seem reasonable - considering my vet charges £60 just to stick a thermometer up The Brutes bum, stroke him and ask "How is he?" (which apart from the jabs is what the annual consultation consists of) - but the total is getting silly.

To put this into perspective, last Saturday we had a coffee morning and raised just shy of £1000, which we thought was pretty damn good. And it was until you consider that will cover the vets bill for just four cats.

@Mr. Charles,

It looks like I am where you thought and we will explore the options you put up. Thanks.

DavidL

I think that the tories have an excellent prospect of taking West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. In fact I would make them favourites. I think, short of a complete SNP meltdown which I do not foresee at all, they do not have any chance in my own seat of Angus. It has got safer and safer as time has gone by and the local SNP council do a reasonably good job.

The SNP might take West Aberdeenshire if we had a yes vote. Not otherwise I think. I think they have better chances in North East Fife.

Charles

Anorak said:

Maybe he does. Tricky to know without all the facts, i.e. the actual volume, the proportion of his time, the cost of medication, the opportunity cost of visiting the charity, etc, etc.
I'm sure he could afford to give a discount - but why on earth should he? Should GPs not charge the NHS for treating people on benefits? Or the elderly? Or the disabled?

Because the rent on the practice will probably be £15,000 p.a. and he will pay his two junior staff members £15-20K each.

So this single customer is covering the vast majority of his overheads - but it is a single customer that has potential other suppliers. So if they threaten to leave, then he will likely think very seriously about a discount. He's charging commercial rates, so shouldn't expect anything other than a commercial relationship.

OblitusSumMe

dugarbandier said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

I read that the dry runs for Ed Miliband's policies for a better Britain are not going well in Venezuela.

Government imposed price freezes on supermarkets ''to help the poor'' are leading to huge shortages, rationing, hoarding, black market activity and food riots.

Economics 101: if you set the price of something below the clearing price, then you will have shortages.

The Thai government is in serious danger of alienating it’s support-base by similar policies. Which, of course, have the usual result.

is that connected to the rice mortgage scheme? btw can any of the free-marketeers around here name a single free market in agriculture/food production? seems to me subsidies abound in almost everything grown. or am i wrong?

I listened to some free Yale lectures on European History recently - given by a Francophile Anarchist - in which he talked about the end of grain riots in Western Europe in the 19th century.

Upshot was that there is a lot of truth to the saying that civilization is x meals away from anarchy, where x is a small number.

Consequently governments of whatever type will always chuck a lot of money at agriculture.

Scrapheap_as_was

Damn - have I missed the Farage/Clegg debate?

Air pollution reaches high levels in south-east England

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26856285

MarkSenior

DavidL said:

I think that the tories have an excellent prospect of taking West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. In fact I would make them favourites. I think, short of a complete SNP meltdown which I do not foresee at all, they do not have any chance in my own seat of Angus. It has got safer and safer as time has gone by and the local SNP council do a reasonably good job.

The SNP might take West Aberdeenshire if we had a yes vote. Not otherwise I think. I think they have better chances in North East Fife.

Was not West Aberdeen/Kincardine one of the 7 or 8 Scottish seats the Conservatives were going to win in 2010 along with Argyll and Berwick/ Roxburgh ?

NickPalmer

edmundintokyo said:

Wouldn't the northern Labour seats be places where the BNP was strong last time? Farage can't really say this but since the BNP seem to have fallen over UKIP would be well placed to scoop up their votes. Even if it doesn't result in UKIP seats, it's in UKIP's interests to give the BNP a kicking while they're down, which eliminates competition as well as being a noble goal in its own right.

That might be the general idea, but it seems to be being implemented a bit randomly. UKIP has had a street stand and now a public meeting in Beeston in my patch, which is indeed heavily Labour (5 Lab councillors and one LibDem, with Tories far behind), but the demographics are like Islington, with lots of lecturers, teachers, students and NHS staff and the Guardian outselling the Mail. The BNP never got anywhere in the town, and in the district elections,UKIP didn't stand there at all, so people are a bit bemused. Last election result from the ward where they held the meeting:

http://www.broxtowe.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=8746

Carnyx

Re recent discussions on VI and betting on Tory MPs outbreeding the proverbial pandas, this might be worth a read (I know it is WoS and anathema for some, but as it is based in part on a Scotsman story the anathemata cancel out):

http://wingsoverscotland.com/conservative-but-not-so-unionist/#more-52877

It also comments on Tory Party members' backing for Yes at 22%, as documented by the Tories themselves, admittedly in a ?voodoo poll - and admittedly including EWNi members.

AndyJS

Seats that would change hands using Ladbrokes' current constituency odds:

Amber Valley
Argyll & Bute
Bedford
Berwick-upon-Tweed
B'ham Yardley
Blackpool North & Cleveleys
Bradford East
Bradford West (Lab regain)
Brentford & Isleworth
Brent Central
Brighton Kemptown
Burnley
Bury North
Cardiff North
Carlisle
City of Chester
Dunbartonshire East
Edinburgh West
Enfield North
Erewash
Gloucester
Halesowen & Rowley Regis
Hastings & Rye
Hendon
Hornsey & Wood Green
Ipswich
Lancaster & Fleetwood
Lincoln
Manchester Withington
Mid Dorset
Morecambe & Lunesdale
Nothampton North
Norwich South
Nuneaton
Pudsey
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
Redcar
Sherwood
Solihull
Somerton & Frome
St Austell & Newquay
Stockton South
Stroud
Sutton & Cheam
Thurrock
Warrington South
Warwickshire North
Waveney
Weaver Vale
Wells

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/uk-general-election/next-general-election-constituency-betting-e216773182-m227475750

Richard_Nabavi

@AndyJS - I think you've just put Nick Palmer into a panic, or would have done if he were the panicking sort!

OldKingCole

Charles said:

Anorak said:

Maybe he does. Tricky to know without all the facts, i.e. the actual volume, the proportion of his time, the cost of medication, the opportunity cost of visiting the charity, etc, etc.
I'm sure he could afford to give a discount - but why on earth should he? Should GPs not charge the NHS for treating people on benefits? Or the elderly? Or the disabled?

Because the rent on the practice will probably be £15,000 p.a. and he will pay his two junior staff members £15-20K each.

So this single customer is covering the vast majority of his overheads - but it is a single customer that has potential other suppliers. So if they threaten to leave, then he will likely think very seriously about a discount. He's charging commercial rates, so shouldn't expect anything other than a commercial relationship.

As to the commercial relationship, I think that we've established that beyond reasonable doubt and if I were that vet and read this I would be thinking very carefully.

Which comes back to our colleagues original thought!

Richard_Nabavi

@AndyJS - As well as Broxtowe, I think you also missed Watford. Also Shadsy has Brighton Pav and Cambridge as Evens shots for Labour to gain.

old_labour

A smartphone app to help identify - and boycott - goods made in Russia is becoming popular among Android users in Ukraine, it appears.

AlastairMeeks

A thought-provoking article on house prices in London:

http://www.edmundconway.com/2014/04/five-signs-the-london-property-bubble-is-reaching-unsustainable-proportions/

AndyJS

edit

Charles

Carnyx said:

Re recent discussions on VI and betting on Tory MPs outbreeding the proverbial pandas, this might be worth a read (I know it is WoS and anathema for some, but as it is based in part on a Scotsman story the anathemata cancel out):

http://wingsoverscotland.com/conservative-but-not-so-unionist/#more-52877

It also comments on Tory Party members' backing for Yes at 22%, as documented by the Tories themselves, admittedly in a ?voodoo poll - and admittedly including EWNi members.

In the event that there is a 'no' vote, Cameron's should go for the gracious statesman response.

- Gratified by the support and affection demonstrated
- Recognition of the critical role played by Scotland in the UK
- Clear that there is substantial dissatifaction with the current arrangements
- Need to address this in the interests of a stable long-term relationship
- Also need to be fair to the peoples of Wales, Northern Ireland and England
- Hence propose a Royal Commission, if the Conservatives are re-elected in 2015, to make a agree a proposal for a comprehensive new settlement in the first half of the parliament, to be approved by a UK-wide referendum

Statesman like, gracious, meets the implied promise to the Scots, fair to the other members of the UK, allows the West Lothian question to be addressed, perhaps creates an incentive for Scots to vote Tory rather than Labour.

Tactical advantages

- if Cameron puts out his views on the frame of reference in advance of the election, then Labour needs to react; may put WLQ on the table for them as well
- Potentially creates space for a more dramatic HoL reform than Clegg's bastard child. And one that could be wrapped into a broader question in a vote. Same goes for electoral reform. Perhaps increases scope to do a deal with the LibDems after 2015
- Think of all the fun threads we can have... AV and Scotland and HoL reform in one...

david_herdson

On topic, I wonder whether Farage is playing a longer game, as well as a shorter one.

The short game is that in areas where Labour has traditionally been strong, both government parties are not options for floating voters, Labour itself is not viewed as particularly in touch and there are plenty of voters who are just disillusioned and which UKIP might stand a chance with. As others have said, while UKIP has done well mining Tory disillusionment so far, there's a limit to how far that can go (or more accurately, there comes a point where other votes can be won more easily).

The longer game, however, is for after the election. Farage should know that his party is currently enjoying extremely favourable conditions: the three main parties have never been so collectively unpopular and there's no obvious alternative fourth party in England (and in Wales, Plaid is no better than the main three). That may all change after the election.

If Labour gets back in, it's probable that they'll plunge back into unpopularity quickly with little money to splash about. Implied promises will be hard to deliver. However, those who've put their faith in Labour will still find it difficult to look for an alternative if they blame the Tories and Lib Dems too. Hence the need to establish UKIP in areas of Labour strength now.

AndyJS

I thought that list was the full list of Ladbrokes odds. Obviously there are some others elsewhere.

JackW

Are we all hyped to the rafters for the big debate at 7.00pm ?!?!?!?

I'm all a quiver in anticipation ....

My tenterhooks are in a laver of discombobulation ....

Yes a decision has to made .....

I must debate - madeira or port for after dinner libation ....

Choices .. choices .. choices ..

AndyJS

Some more on another page:

Hove
Broxtowe
Cardiff Central
Kingswood
Watford
Wolverhampton South West

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/uk-general-election/next-general-election-constituency-betting-e216773182

36 Lab gains from Con
11 Lab gains from LD
1 Lab regain from Respect
7 Con gains from LD
1 SNP gain from LD

New totals would be:

Lab 305
Con 278
LD 38
SNP 7

Lab short of majority by 21 seats.

Charles

antifrank said:

A thought-provoking article on house prices in London:

http://www.edmundconway.com/2014/04/five-signs-the-london-property-bubble-is-reaching-unsustainable-proportions/

Very interesting. The vLondon average price/earning ratio the most. I think that is the point that most of the sophisticated commentators were making: that most of the UK is fine, that there is potentially a bubble in London, and that Help to Buy has little impact on London.

thanks for posting

Carola

Very swish studio set for Cleggage.

FPT on the Royal Mail - I reckon many expected it to make a lot of money for investors anyway. Just reinforces what people thought. Though I learned more about the so-called 'gentleman's agreement' (guffaw) today.

Cute cat pic in the Times:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/life/relationships/article4051934.ece

SimonStClare

BBC political editor Nick Robinson says he expects the second Clegg/Farage debate to have "a different feel, less cautious than the first."

Less cautious? - I thought the first descended into a slagging match?

JackW

AndyJS said:

New totals would be:

Lab 305
Con 278
LD 38
SNP 7

Lab short of majority by 21 seats.

Reverse those Lab/Con numbers and smack my ARSE it's a hit !!