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The Sunday open thread. How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb  – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,408
    Taz said:

    moonshine said:

    Incidentally, the next thing the Americans might do is send the B2s back to hunt mobile MRBM launchers in Iran.

    It’s the longer range ballistic missiles that are testing the Israeli defences - higher velocities…

    The B2 was originally designed to hunt Soviet mobile ICBM launchers - it has a rather nice radar designed specifically for that task.

    I would think politically Trump might think he’s stretched the MAGA isolationists as far as he dare for now. And rely on Israel to take care of that. The potential thorny problem is if the enriched material made it out before the strike - 16 heavy trucks reported to have visited in recent days. One assumes they weren’t just taking Oppenheimer dvds with them. If so I can imagine a second volley in the next 24 hours targeted at that problem, which is fairly justifiable to the Maga base.
    I thought Vance looked like he’d rather be anywhere else at Trumps presser.
    Major policy stance of Vance's version of MAGA was no more wars in middle east. Hilarious watching the contortions now.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,897
    edited June 22
    To govern is to choose. Be interesting to see if by 2027 he still has the appetite for the top job or not
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,724
    Historical experience tells us regime change from within happens when there is no one left to defend the regime.

    We saw this in Eastern Europe in 1989 and in Syria last December - there comes a point when the infrastructure of repression collapses because it's built on sand and unless there are people able and willing to fight and die to maintain the repression, inevitably it falls.

    I don't know if we are at that point in Iran or not - if the effect of the Israeli and US attacks is to weaken the infrastructure of repression, then it "may" be possible for the people to rise up and, hopefully if the bulk of the army and police do nothing or switch sides, the Government will fall.

    I suspect that won't happen now as external attack tends to unify but in a few weeks or months it may be an option and such covert assistance as we can provide at that point will pay far more than all the bunker busting bombs.

    However, there are no guarantees and a post-theocratic Iranian Government can't be assumed to suddenly become a friend of the West and indeed there's a minefield (so to speak) of relations with the likes of Turkey, Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq to negotiate for such a Government.

    Let's also not forgot religion has a role to play in Iranian society just as it has in other countries.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,058
    Battlebus said:

    One counterfactual to these unnamed intelligence sources saying no evidence to every journalist who will listen. Trump has been doing everything to get out of being involved and staked his presidency on peace maker. Trump really wants that Nobel Peace Prize. We also know Mossad have infiltrated a lot further into Iranian society than was thought possible, they are closest to the real goings on.

    Is it that the Isealis showed him new evidence? Now is it real or it is a Bad Al dodgy dossier?

    Since he landed Ukraine with a large bill for US help, perhaps he has an IOU from Bibi (for Cash)
    Made out to one D. Trump.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,018
    moonshine said:

    To govern is to choose. Be interesting to see if by 2027 he still has the appetite for the top job or not

    I never thought Starmer wanted to be PM. Senior member of the government yes, top dog no.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,058
    edited June 22
    stodge said:

    Historical experience tells us regime change from within happens when there is no one left to defend the regime.

    We saw this in Eastern Europe in 1989 and in Syria last December - there comes a point when the infrastructure of repression collapses because it's built on sand and unless there are people able and willing to fight and die to maintain the repression, inevitably it falls.

    I don't know if we are at that point in Iran or not - if the effect of the Israeli and US attacks is to weaken the infrastructure of repression, then it "may" be possible for the people to rise up and, hopefully if the bulk of the army and police do nothing or switch sides, the Government will fall.

    I suspect that won't happen now as external attack tends to unify but in a few weeks or months it may be an option and such covert assistance as we can provide at that point will pay far more than all the bunker busting bombs.

    However, there are no guarantees and a post-theocratic Iranian Government can't be assumed to suddenly become a friend of the West and indeed there's a minefield (so to speak) of relations with the likes of Turkey, Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq to negotiate for such a Government.

    Let's also not forgot religion has a role to play in Iranian society just as it has in other countries.

    See also Putin is going to die from cancer/Prigozhin, PB 2023/24/25, and we'll be able to do business with his sane, non-nationalist successors.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,275
    Oh dear, if this is correct.

    Medvedev : "There are a number of countries ready to supply nuclear warheads to Tehran."
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,884

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    I see the bloke is shoving his loot into a Waitrose carrier bag that you have to pay for. Presumably that's where he does his legal shopping.
    Why does Tesco employ a security guy? He does nothing presumable as he has been ordered to do.
    Would you risk your life on minimum wage to protect Tesco profits? The only way you're stopping those lads is by using violence against them. Why risk getting done for assault if it goes mental?
    No, I get that. So why not just get rid of the job? Save a minimum wage.
    Its the Pareto Principle.

    80% of the reward comes from 20% of the effort, but the final 20% requires 80% of the effort.

    Simply having a security guard there will deter most potential thieves who are opportunistic. It won't deter the hardened criminals.

    Deterring the opportunists will probably save more money than the guard's wage.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749

    Oh dear, if this is correct.

    Medvedev : "There are a number of countries ready to supply nuclear warheads to Tehran."

    Medvedev is a nutter tbf
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,126
    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,414

    Oh dear, if this is correct.

    Medvedev : "There are a number of countries ready to supply nuclear warheads to Tehran."

    Medvedev is pure bluster. If what he said had any relation to reality, all of Europe and Ukraine would be a nuclear wasteland already.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749

    Oh dear, if this is correct.

    Medvedev : "There are a number of countries ready to supply nuclear warheads to Tehran."

    Medvedev is pure bluster. If what he said had any relation to reality, all of Europe and Ukraine would be a nuclear wasteland already.
    Medvedev is human BRACE
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,411
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Not terribly surprised by the morning's news. One can argue it's a good argument for non-proliferation but I don't recall American planes bombing Indian, Pakistani and North Korean let alone Israeli nuclear production facilities.

    I suppose it comes down to the truth you have to be a particular class of lunatic to be afforded the privilege of being denied nuclear weapons by force.

    I'm musing more on the domestic political impact. While the pro-Palestine groups continue to agitate in parts of the country (my part of London as an example), I've not yet seen a big upswing in activity directly resulting from the conflict between Israel and Iran - that might change with the overt US intervention.

    It will continue to perpetuate the other current schism in UK politics - not the one on the so-called "Right" but the one on the so-called "Left" between Labour and a coalition of young Muslim voters and former pro-Corbyn supporters. The latter are more interesting at a local level as they have been campaigning strongly and effectively on the failings of London Labour Councils and may well capture a number of seats at the next London locals next year.

    You make a very important point that the right will support Trump's actions, but the left will be in turmoil

    Even before last night we had the left on manoeuvres to coalesce around Corbyn over the proposal to prescribe the PLA, a real rebellion over the benefit reductions, and now this

    Where this goes for Starmer is highly unpredictable
    I would never regard myself as on either the "right" or the "left" to be honest but I see more advantages for the region and the world in a non-nuclear Iran than a nuclear Iran.

    That being said, regime change isn't a policy option for me - the Iranians themselves are the only ones who should decide what kind of Government under which they wish to live whether it ber theocracy, democracy or monarchy or some combination of all three.

    Iran also has the right to defend itself and we should respect its territorial integrity and independence just as it must respect everyone else's.

    How this plays out longer term I don't know - it will harden the resolve of those on the "left" who are opposed to the current incarnation of Labour and will see it as mark 2 Blairism but that politics electorally was pretty successful domestically.
    I generally agree with your point. However, the Iranian people *cannot* decide what kind of government they live under: they do not get to vote for the supreme leader, or members of the ruling council. And they never will get that choice until there is a regime change.
    Yes but the question is does a changed regime have legitimacy if the change is imposed by an external power or does it have legitimacy if it is facilitated by an external power?

    There's a crucial difference - the Iranian people changing their own regime is one thing - I'd welcome it, most on here would and, if following some transitional period, they chose their next Government via a free and fair election, I'm sure, whatever that Government looked like, we would support it as a legitimate Government even if we didn't necessarily agree with all its policies.

    If, however, the regime was seen to have been toppled from outside, any new Government would be tainted by that action and would lack popular legitimacy and, I suspect, would likely lose any election held because people like to be seen to be making their own decisions and running their own affairs as we apparently showed nine years ago.

    Just as an aside, the theorcratic revolution in 1979 was widely supported within Iran as people at that time wanted an end to the rule of the Shah and the infamous SAVAK secret police.
    They should have been careful what they wished for.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,146

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    I see the bloke is shoving his loot into a Waitrose carrier bag that you have to pay for. Presumably that's where he does his legal shopping.
    Why does Tesco employ a security guy? He does nothing presumable as he has been ordered to do.
    Would you risk your life on minimum wage to protect Tesco profits? The only way you're stopping those lads is by using violence against them. Why risk getting done for assault if it goes mental?
    No, I get that. So why not just get rid of the job? Save a minimum wage.
    Its the Pareto Principle.

    80% of the reward comes from 20% of the effort, but the final 20% requires 80% of the effort.

    Simply having a security guard there will deter most potential thieves who are opportunistic. It won't deter the hardened criminals.

    Deterring the opportunists will probably save more money than the guard's wage.
    That's why the police need to be involved. Not necessarily every time but there should be a real risk of conviction. You might get away with it if you do it once. If you do it ten times, chances are you end up in prison. Those odds aren't good enough for regular criminals. There appears to be a completely stupid policy of the police never involving themselves in shoplifting.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,961
    Taz said:

    moonshine said:

    Incidentally, the next thing the Americans might do is send the B2s back to hunt mobile MRBM launchers in Iran.

    It’s the longer range ballistic missiles that are testing the Israeli defences - higher velocities…

    The B2 was originally designed to hunt Soviet mobile ICBM launchers - it has a rather nice radar designed specifically for that task.

    I would think politically Trump might think he’s stretched the MAGA isolationists as far as he dare for now. And rely on Israel to take care of that. The potential thorny problem is if the enriched material made it out before the strike - 16 heavy trucks reported to have visited in recent days. One assumes they weren’t just taking Oppenheimer dvds with them. If so I can imagine a second volley in the next 24 hours targeted at that problem, which is fairly justifiable to the Maga base.
    I thought Vance looked like he’d rather be anywhere else at Trumps presser.
    He's Veep.

    Being at press conferences announcing things he doesn't agree with is literally part of JD's JD.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749
    edited June 22
    Oil price watch commences. Reeves will have her bricking it knickers on
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,573

    Oh dear, if this is correct.

    Medvedev : "There are a number of countries ready to supply nuclear warheads to Tehran."

    Medvedev is pure bluster. If what he said had any relation to reality, all of Europe and Ukraine would be a nuclear wasteland already.
    Medvedev is human BRACE
    We can now reset the “days since Medvedev threatened the world with nuclear fire” counter.

    It never gets particularly high.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,795
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    Isn't is tase them?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,673
    malcolmg said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Not terribly surprised by the morning's news. One can argue it's a good argument for non-proliferation but I don't recall American planes bombing Indian, Pakistani and North Korean let alone Israeli nuclear production facilities.

    I suppose it comes down to the truth you have to be a particular class of lunatic to be afforded the privilege of being denied nuclear weapons by force.

    I'm musing more on the domestic political impact. While the pro-Palestine groups continue to agitate in parts of the country (my part of London as an example), I've not yet seen a big upswing in activity directly resulting from the conflict between Israel and Iran - that might change with the overt US intervention.

    It will continue to perpetuate the other current schism in UK politics - not the one on the so-called "Right" but the one on the so-called "Left" between Labour and a coalition of young Muslim voters and former pro-Corbyn supporters. The latter are more interesting at a local level as they have been campaigning strongly and effectively on the failings of London Labour Councils and may well capture a number of seats at the next London locals next year.

    You make a very important point that the right will support Trump's actions, but the left will be in turmoil

    Even before last night we had the left on manoeuvres to coalesce around Corbyn over the proposal to prescribe the PLA, a real rebellion over the benefit reductions, and now this

    Where this goes for Starmer is highly unpredictable
    I would never regard myself as on either the "right" or the "left" to be honest but I see more advantages for the region and the world in a non-nuclear Iran than a nuclear Iran.

    That being said, regime change isn't a policy option for me - the Iranians themselves are the only ones who should decide what kind of Government under which they wish to live whether it ber theocracy, democracy or monarchy or some combination of all three.

    Iran also has the right to defend itself and we should respect its territorial integrity and independence just as it must respect everyone else's.

    How this plays out longer term I don't know - it will harden the resolve of those on the "left" who are opposed to the current incarnation of Labour and will see it as mark 2 Blairism but that politics electorally was pretty successful domestically.
    I generally agree with your point. However, the Iranian people *cannot* decide what kind of government they live under: they do not get to vote for the supreme leader, or members of the ruling council. And they never will get that choice until there is a regime change.
    Yes but the question is does a changed regime have legitimacy if the change is imposed by an external power or does it have legitimacy if it is facilitated by an external power?

    There's a crucial difference - the Iranian people changing their own regime is one thing - I'd welcome it, most on here would and, if following some transitional period, they chose their next Government via a free and fair election, I'm sure, whatever that Government looked like, we would support it as a legitimate Government even if we didn't necessarily agree with all its policies.

    If, however, the regime was seen to have been toppled from outside, any new Government would be tainted by that action and would lack popular legitimacy and, I suspect, would likely lose any election held because people like to be seen to be making their own decisions and running their own affairs as we apparently showed nine years ago.

    Just as an aside, the theorcratic revolution in 1979 was widely supported within Iran as people at that time wanted an end to the rule of the Shah and the infamous SAVAK secret police.
    They should have been careful what they wished for.
    Let's have you live under a SAVAK-like secret police for a few years and see if you're still up to posting entitled bullshit on an internet forum.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,803
    edited June 22
    FF43 said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    I see the bloke is shoving his loot into a Waitrose carrier bag that you have to pay for. Presumably that's where he does his legal shopping.
    Why does Tesco employ a security guy? He does nothing presumable as he has been ordered to do.
    Would you risk your life on minimum wage to protect Tesco profits? The only way you're stopping those lads is by using violence against them. Why risk getting done for assault if it goes mental?
    No, I get that. So why not just get rid of the job? Save a minimum wage.
    Its the Pareto Principle.

    80% of the reward comes from 20% of the effort, but the final 20% requires 80% of the effort.

    Simply having a security guard there will deter most potential thieves who are opportunistic. It won't deter the hardened criminals.

    Deterring the opportunists will probably save more money than the guard's wage.
    That's why the police need to be involved. Not necessarily every time but there should be a real risk of conviction. You might get away with it if you do it once. If you do it ten times, chances are you end up in prison. Those odds aren't good enough for regular criminals. There appears to be a completely stupid policy of the police never involving themselves in shoplifting.
    The identification rate, let alone the conviction rate for so many "low level" crimes is now sub 1%. All the criminals and chancers know this, you don't need to run your multi-gpu machine learning model to see that its a +EV bet.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,071

    Oh dear, if this is correct.

    Medvedev : "There are a number of countries ready to supply nuclear warheads to Tehran."

    France and who else?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,803
    edited June 22
    Anyone who has ever tried to get a GP appointment in England will be familiar with the "8am scramble", as you phone your local surgery desperately hoping to get through.

    Many surgeries - like the Tudor House Medical Practice - open their telephone lines at 08:00, meaning that if you want an on-the-day appointment, you have to phone on the dot at 08:00.

    This can prove a source of frustration, with Jayne Bond - part of a four-strong team at the increasingly busy practice - often at the sharp end of patients' upset.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lzny07jqxo

    How is this still a thing in 2025....yes I know oldies, but the default should be online booking system. How it has to been so hard for all GP surgeries to implement this that the government for years have kept saying that it is coming soon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,797
    "Veteran broadcaster Selina Scott has revealed she was viciously attacked and robbed by an organised gang in broad daylight in London last week.

    Amid growing concerns about the spiralling crime epidemic in the capital, the former ITN News At Ten anchor has described how the terrifying assault – which took place on busy Piccadilly in Central London – left her ‘shattered and traumatised’."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14835011/Selina-Scott-stabbed-robbery-West-End.html
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,773

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    I see the bloke is shoving his loot into a Waitrose carrier bag that you have to pay for. Presumably that's where he does his legal shopping.
    Why does Tesco employ a security guy? He does nothing presumable as he has been ordered to do.
    Intimidation (ha!) and protection for the store staff.

    My local Tesco franchise is still using their innovative approach. The dodgy cousin of the manager hangs out there and attacks shop lifters. He’s not paid or employed by the store…
    He's a Tesco proxy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,902

    Oil price watch commences. Reeves will have her bricking it knickers on

    If anyone needs a narrative to justify increasing the pace of the switch to renewables, there it is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,619

    Oil price watch commences. Reeves will have her bricking it knickers on

    The current inflation rate is at a l low tide for both oil and the US dollar. So there's considerable scope for it to rise significantly if events outside the UK conspire against us
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,803
    edited June 22
    I wish Sky News would sack Beth Rigby, she asks the most stupid gotcha questions even when there are incredibly serious situations.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749
    Pulpstar said:

    Oil price watch commences. Reeves will have her bricking it knickers on

    The current inflation rate is at a l low tide for both oil and the US dollar. So there's considerable scope for it to rise significantly if events outside the UK conspire against us
    Thank goodness our economy is so robust then!
    Oh shi.........
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,803
    Andy_JS said:

    "Veteran broadcaster Selina Scott has revealed she was viciously attacked and robbed by an organised gang in broad daylight in London last week.

    Amid growing concerns about the spiralling crime epidemic in the capital, the former ITN News At Ten anchor has described how the terrifying assault – which took place on busy Piccadilly in Central London – left her ‘shattered and traumatised’."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14835011/Selina-Scott-stabbed-robbery-West-End.html

    Is the MET fit for purpose?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,498
    edited June 22

    I wish Sky News would sack Beth Rigby, she asks the most stupid gotcha questions even when there are incredibly serious situations.

    She's very, very critical of this Government and these days not at all hostile to particularly Reform and also Con which is good, n'est pas?
  • vikvik Posts: 530
    As expected, the Iranians had been preparing for the attack:

    In the three days prior to the U.S. strikes, a flurry of abnormal activity was observed near an entrance tunnel at Iran’s Fordo nuclear site, according to satellite imagery released by Maxar Technologies, a satellite technology company. On June 19, the analyst said that 16 cargo trucks were positioned near an entrance tunnel. The following day, these had moved northwest away from the site, but other trucks and bulldozers were visible near the entrance. An analysis by the Open Source Centre in London had suggested Iran may have been preparing the facility for a strike.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/22/world/israel-iran-us-trump/4d59ead6-7a91-5c32-88c2-63156d407341?smid=url-share
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,126
    Andy_JS said:

    "Veteran broadcaster Selina Scott has revealed she was viciously attacked and robbed by an organised gang in broad daylight in London last week.

    Amid growing concerns about the spiralling crime epidemic in the capital, the former ITN News At Ten anchor has described how the terrifying assault – which took place on busy Piccadilly in Central London – left her ‘shattered and traumatised’."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14835011/Selina-Scott-stabbed-robbery-West-End.html

    Gee, I wonder why the non Doms are leaving and London property sliding
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,810

    I wish Sky News would sack Beth Rigby, she asks the most stupid gotcha questions even when there are incredibly serious situations.

    She's very, very critical of this Government and these days not at all hostile to particularly Reform and also Con which is good, n'est pas?
    Rigby did exactly the same to the conservatives in government and the labour government are now her 'gotcha' target

    Indeed that applies to most journalists
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,228
    FF43 said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    I see the bloke is shoving his loot into a Waitrose carrier bag that you have to pay for. Presumably that's where he does his legal shopping.
    Why does Tesco employ a security guy? He does nothing presumable as he has been ordered to do.
    Would you risk your life on minimum wage to protect Tesco profits? The only way you're stopping those lads is by using violence against them. Why risk getting done for assault if it goes mental?
    No, I get that. So why not just get rid of the job? Save a minimum wage.
    Its the Pareto Principle.

    80% of the reward comes from 20% of the effort, but the final 20% requires 80% of the effort.

    Simply having a security guard there will deter most potential thieves who are opportunistic. It won't deter the hardened criminals.

    Deterring the opportunists will probably save more money than the guard's wage.
    That's why the police need to be involved. Not necessarily every time but there should be a real risk of conviction. You might get away with it if you do it once. If you do it ten times, chances are you end up in prison. Those odds aren't good enough for regular criminals. There appears to be a completely stupid policy of the police never involving themselves in shoplifting.
    They did if theft of goods over £200 but largely ignored it otherwise.

    However the government has now required the police to investigate thefts of good under £200 too
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,573
    edited June 22

    Anyone who has ever tried to get a GP appointment in England will be familiar with the "8am scramble", as you phone your local surgery desperately hoping to get through.

    Many surgeries - like the Tudor House Medical Practice - open their telephone lines at 08:00, meaning that if you want an on-the-day appointment, you have to phone on the dot at 08:00.

    This can prove a source of frustration, with Jayne Bond - part of a four-strong team at the increasingly busy practice - often at the sharp end of patients' upset.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lzny07jqxo

    How is this still a thing in 2025....yes I know oldies, but the default should be online booking system. How it has to been so hard for all GP surgeries to implement this that the government for years have kept saying that it is coming soon.

    Mine moved to a system where you fill in an online form in the morning for same-day, explain symptoms and reason for needing to be seen, and someone calls you up and offers you an appointment (usually relatively shortly thereafter, I have to say). I was initially skeptical, but it seems to work well, and a much more pleasant experience than having to go through the “beg a receptionist and tell them all your woes” phone call of doom.

    I’ve never been able to make sense of their online non-urgent appointment booking system though - every time I’ve tried it’s just told me there’s nothing available so I’ve had to ring.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,228

    The “Big Four” accountants are cutting jobs and scaling back graduate recruitment programmes as they turn to artificial intelligence (AI) to do entry-level work.

    The professional services giants Deloitte, EY, KPMG and PwC have cut hundreds of roles over the past two years as they seek to keep up £1m payouts to partners in the face of a downturn in the consulting market.

    The cutbacks mean they will take on hundreds fewer school leavers and university graduates compared with in 2023, with AI able to do some of the administrative tasks they would have been given.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/22/city-giants-replace-graduate-jobs-with-ai/

    Perhaps they could cut profits from partners rather than just new starters seeking entry level accountancy jobs? If big firms continue like this is it much surprise populist parties of left and right continue to get traction?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,498

    I wish Sky News would sack Beth Rigby, she asks the most stupid gotcha questions even when there are incredibly serious situations.

    She's very, very critical of this Government and these days not at all hostile to particularly Reform and also Con which is good, n'est pas?
    Rigby did exactly the same to the conservatives in government and the labour government are now her 'gotcha' target

    Indeed that applies to most journalists
    But isn't that her job to call out bad people in Government and promote the great and the good like Nigel?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,763
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,810
    England avouf follow on
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,902
    Tice:

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1936403403116077166

    My concern here is the rush to a precooked judgement, rather than a desire to know what happened and why.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,228
    edited June 22

    If Starmer were to join military action presumably he would want to follow precedent and get Commons approval. That might be very problematic, hence might inform some of his thinking. We all remember Cameron and Syria.

    He doesn't, hence there was no UK involvement in the strikes last night even in terms of bases. He knows at least half the Parliamentary Labour Party would vote against any UK involvement in such action with Israel and the US against Iran as would the LDs and SNP, Greens, SDLP, Independents and Plaid and he likely wouldn't get it through even with Tory and Reform and DUP support
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,126
    Fascinating ethnic breakdown of that Ipsos poll

    Yes, subsamples, but wow

    Reform gets nearly 40% of the white vote - 37%

    Labour: 21%
    Con: 15%
    Lib: 12%

    https://x.com/surplustakes/status/1936731739122225321?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It’s only BAME voting which is preventing a ginormous Reform landslide
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 752

    Anyone who has ever tried to get a GP appointment in England will be familiar with the "8am scramble", as you phone your local surgery desperately hoping to get through.

    Many surgeries - like the Tudor House Medical Practice - open their telephone lines at 08:00, meaning that if you want an on-the-day appointment, you have to phone on the dot at 08:00.

    This can prove a source of frustration, with Jayne Bond - part of a four-strong team at the increasingly busy practice - often at the sharp end of patients' upset.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lzny07jqxo

    How is this still a thing in 2025....yes I know oldies, but the default should be online booking system. How it has to been so hard for all GP surgeries to implement this that the government for years have kept saying that it is coming soon.

    This is how it works in my area. You fill in the on-line form. You will be told you will get a response within 48 hours. Two days later, a receptionist phones you and tells you that you will have an telephone consultation in 3 days time. After the telephone consultation, the doctor will say you need to come in and a recptionist will phone with an appointment for the following week.

    I have mentioned previously on this board that 3 weeks ago I ended up in A & E and how few of the people in there looked as if they needed urgent care. My hairdresser said that people are now using A & E as a drop-in GP surgery as they are so fed up with going through the online consultation system.

    I know this is all anecdotal but this seems to be how it is panning out in my area.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,803

    England avouf follow on

    ToryHome sin bin for you....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,498

    England avouf follow on

    Is "avouf" cricketing parlance for avoid?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,126
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,498
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
    Can you instead post a picture of your breakfast please?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,810
    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer were to join military action presumably he would want to follow precedent and get Commons approval. That might be very problematic, hence might inform some of his thinking. We all remember Cameron and Syria.

    He doesn't, hence there was no UK involvement in the strikes last night even in terms of bases. He knows at least half the Parliamentary Labour Party would vote against any UK involvement in such action with Israel and the US against Iran as would the LDs and SNP, Greens, SDLP, Independents and Plaid and he likely wouldn't get it through even with Tory and Reform and DUP support
    The point you miss and has been discussed in the media if the US is attacked article 5 of NATo means that UK has a responsibility to assist the US
  • Anyone who has ever tried to get a GP appointment in England will be familiar with the "8am scramble", as you phone your local surgery desperately hoping to get through.

    Many surgeries - like the Tudor House Medical Practice - open their telephone lines at 08:00, meaning that if you want an on-the-day appointment, you have to phone on the dot at 08:00.

    This can prove a source of frustration, with Jayne Bond - part of a four-strong team at the increasingly busy practice - often at the sharp end of patients' upset.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lzny07jqxo

    How is this still a thing in 2025....yes I know oldies, but the default should be online booking system. How it has to been so hard for all GP surgeries to implement this that the government for years have kept saying that it is coming soon.

    My GP surgery (Scotland, rather than England) does not do online booking. They don't do online anything. Any emails sent to them are routinely ignored. Getting a prescription renewed means leaving a message on an answerphone (mornings only).

    I once asked if I could email them pictures of a painful rash for advice - but of course they don't do that.

    They are content to remain in the stone age because there's no downside to their business from doing so. That really needs to change.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,619
    kinabalu said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    I see the bloke is shoving his loot into a Waitrose carrier bag that you have to pay for. Presumably that's where he does his legal shopping.
    Why does Tesco employ a security guy? He does nothing presumable as he has been ordered to do.
    Intimidation (ha!) and protection for the store staff.

    My local Tesco franchise is still using their innovative approach. The dodgy cousin of the manager hangs out there and attacks shop lifters. He’s not paid or employed by the store…
    He's a Tesco proxy.
    Most of the time security acts as this bloke has but occasionally neer do wells run into ex Heavyweight pro Julius Francis..
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer were to join military action presumably he would want to follow precedent and get Commons approval. That might be very problematic, hence might inform some of his thinking. We all remember Cameron and Syria.

    He doesn't, hence there was no UK involvement in the strikes last night even in terms of bases. He knows at least half the Parliamentary Labour Party would vote against any UK involvement in such action with Israel and the US against Iran as would the LDs and SNP, Greens, SDLP, Independents and Plaid and he likely wouldn't get it through even with Tory and Reform and DUP support
    The point you miss and has been discussed in the media if the US is attacked article 5 of NATo means that UK has a responsibility to assist the US
    If Turkey goes in to bat for Iran and gets hit by Israel we have a problem. Can we bomb ourselves?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,126
    Looks like they did it

    “From an impeccable Israeli contact:

    The strike appears to have ended the Iranian nuclear program. Confirmation to come in the next 24 hours. The last step is to remove the nuclear material from the nuclear sites.”

    https://x.com/jschanzer/status/1936589901316677784?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,228
    Leon said:

    Fascinating ethnic breakdown of that Ipsos poll

    Yes, subsamples, but wow

    Reform gets nearly 40% of the white vote - 37%

    Labour: 21%
    Con: 15%
    Lib: 12%

    https://x.com/surplustakes/status/1936731739122225321?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It’s only BAME voting which is preventing a ginormous Reform landslide

    Conservatives doing better amongst ethnic minorities at 17% than whites at 15% (after 2 ethnic minority leaders perhaps no surprise) and Labour doing massively better amongst ethnic minorities at 45% to just 21% with whites. Greens also doing better with ethnic minorities at 16% to 8% for whites.

    Reform as you say well ahead with the UK white vote on 37% but in a poor third with ethnic minorities in the UK on just 12%.
    LDs only other UK wide party other than Reform that does better with the white vote, getting 12% of whites to 9% with ethnic minorities

    https://x.com/surplustakes/status/1936731739122225321/photo/1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,773
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    I see the bloke is shoving his loot into a Waitrose carrier bag that you have to pay for. Presumably that's where he does his legal shopping.
    Why does Tesco employ a security guy? He does nothing presumable as he has been ordered to do.
    Intimidation (ha!) and protection for the store staff.

    My local Tesco franchise is still using their innovative approach. The dodgy cousin of the manager hangs out there and attacks shop lifters. He’s not paid or employed by the store…
    He's a Tesco proxy.
    Most of the time security acts as this bloke has but occasionally neer do wells run into ex Heavyweight pro Julius Francis..
    Yikes. "Ok ok, I'll put it back ..."
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,795
    Leon said:

    Looks like they did it

    “From an impeccable Israeli contact:

    The strike appears to have ended the Iranian nuclear program. Confirmation to come in the next 24 hours. The last step is to remove the nuclear material from the nuclear sites.”

    https://x.com/jschanzer/status/1936589901316677784?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I felt so from that 'knowledge cannot be bombed' communication. It felt like rather empty bravado.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,810

    I wish Sky News would sack Beth Rigby, she asks the most stupid gotcha questions even when there are incredibly serious situations.

    She's very, very critical of this Government and these days not at all hostile to particularly Reform and also Con which is good, n'est pas?
    Rigby did exactly the same to the conservatives in government and the labour government are now her 'gotcha' target

    Indeed that applies to most journalists
    But isn't that her job to call out bad people in Government and promote the great and the good like Nigel?
    If you assume that then it was her job to promote Starmer and Labour when in opposition
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,275
    Hmm, Putin's statement on Iran sounds considerably more measured than Medvedev's. Strikes on Iran "were irresponsible", apparently.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749
    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1936676335750930533?t=yHCfNqFiUaNtWW5Z0fcCyw&s=19

    Hes a giant. I thought instability was surely priority?! I feel shamed by his insight
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749

    Hmm, Putin's statement on Iran sounds considerably more measured than Medvedev's. Strikes on Iran "were irresponsible", apparently.

    Apparently the yanks were pulling wheelies and everything
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,619
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    I see the bloke is shoving his loot into a Waitrose carrier bag that you have to pay for. Presumably that's where he does his legal shopping.
    Why does Tesco employ a security guy? He does nothing presumable as he has been ordered to do.
    Intimidation (ha!) and protection for the store staff.

    My local Tesco franchise is still using their innovative approach. The dodgy cousin of the manager hangs out there and attacks shop lifters. He’s not paid or employed by the store…
    He's a Tesco proxy.
    Most of the time security acts as this bloke has but occasionally neer do wells run into ex Heavyweight pro Julius Francis..
    Yikes. "Ok ok, I'll put it back ..."
    Event/Nightclub security rather than shops so someone being rowdy rather than shoplifting but yes the video is a corker
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,573

    Leon said:

    Looks like they did it

    “From an impeccable Israeli contact:

    The strike appears to have ended the Iranian nuclear program. Confirmation to come in the next 24 hours. The last step is to remove the nuclear material from the nuclear sites.”

    https://x.com/jschanzer/status/1936589901316677784?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I felt so from that 'knowledge cannot be bombed' communication. It felt like rather empty bravado.
    Nothing the Iranian regime say is to be taken at face value. They are masters of hyperbole and it is largely done for domestic consumption. It’s like Comical Ali on steroids.

    E.g whatever became of that event that was going to shake the world and be remembered for centuries, or whatever they were wittering on about the other day?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,810

    England avouf follow on

    Is "avouf" cricketing parlance for avoid?
    No - for very old arthritic fingers sadly
  • glwglw Posts: 10,436
    Leon said:

    Looks like they did it

    “From an impeccable Israeli contact:

    The strike appears to have ended the Iranian nuclear program. Confirmation to come in the next 24 hours. The last step is to remove the nuclear material from the nuclear sites.”

    https://x.com/jschanzer/status/1936589901316677784?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    You can't remove the uranium with air strikes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,795

    I wish Sky News would sack Beth Rigby, she asks the most stupid gotcha questions even when there are incredibly serious situations.

    She's very, very critical of this Government and these days not at all hostile to particularly Reform and also Con which is good, n'est pas?
    Rigby did exactly the same to the conservatives in government and the labour government are now her 'gotcha' target

    Indeed that applies to most journalists
    But isn't that her job to call out bad people in Government and promote the great and the good like Nigel?
    If you assume that then it was her job to promote Starmer and Labour when in opposition
    Quite. How many objections did the PB Starmerite brigade raise against Beth Rigby when her primary goal was to get gotchas against Tory PMs? I've never seen one. What seems to be upsetting them is her continuing the practice now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,228
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
    Prisons at least prevent you committing crimes outside while in them though for short, sharp shock interesting suggestion
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,795

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1936676335750930533?t=yHCfNqFiUaNtWW5Z0fcCyw&s=19

    Hes a giant. I thought instability was surely priority?! I feel shamed by his insight

    For some reason, those photos of him doing his bit for the Canadian Tourist Board in front of the majestic mountain range just get more and more irritating.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,763
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
    You call people Centrist Dad often, but really you are a Centrist Grandad. You want to go back to the 1950s all the time. Latest being corporal punishment? Really? What with your other views you really are like the 90+ year old one meets who talk about the good old days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,228

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer were to join military action presumably he would want to follow precedent and get Commons approval. That might be very problematic, hence might inform some of his thinking. We all remember Cameron and Syria.

    He doesn't, hence there was no UK involvement in the strikes last night even in terms of bases. He knows at least half the Parliamentary Labour Party would vote against any UK involvement in such action with Israel and the US against Iran as would the LDs and SNP, Greens, SDLP, Independents and Plaid and he likely wouldn't get it through even with Tory and Reform and DUP support
    The point you miss and has been discussed in the media if the US is attacked article 5 of NATo means that UK has a responsibility to assist the US
    If the mainland US is attacked yes and if a Baltic state is attacked by Putin the US also obliged to assist though at present that more theory than certainty
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,759
    How many runs does Jamie Smith have to score before he makes up for his missed stumping?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,902
    What do we think of the impact of Trump's attach on Iran itself.

    I'd say Trump and Netanyahu have perhaps switched the politics in Iran - to what degree I am not sure - from Islamist Traditionalists vs people wanting reform to Iranians vs Foreign enemies. The President who has been in since last July or so if a reformer, for example reducing enforcement of "Where's your Head Covering?" type laws, and supporting more recognition of minorities.

    That won't help their cause, or alleged aims.

    Here's the chap:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masoud_Pezeshkian
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,018

    England avouf follow on

    Is "avouf" cricketing parlance for avoid?
    No - for very old arthritic fingers sadly
    Every sympathy. Know the feeling well!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,126
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
    You call people Centrist Dad often, but really you are a Centrist Grandad. You want to go back to the 1950s all the time. Latest being corporal punishment? Really? What with your other views you really are like the 90+ year old one meets who talk about the good old days.
    The thing about my suggestion is: it will work. It’s cheap, powerful, effective. And anyway, why is inflicting mental and social pain - prison - deemed acceptable, but inflicting physical pain is not?

    It’s ludicrous. Prison is also expensive and breeds even harder criminals. So taser them. We’d sort this out in a weak

    While bleating midwits like you just sigh and wring your hands about this, offer no solution, and nothing happens
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,145
    I'm no Trump fan but you have to say he's played a blinder over Iran. A good old-fashioned war will probably recruit a few waverers to the flag, so that will ease some of his domestic political pressure. As for the MAGA peakniks (Bannon, Tucker Jenkins and the like) I get the impression Trump was already starting to find them more of an irritation than a asset, so as good a time as any to cut them loose. Without him they are nothing so oblivion awaits.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749
    edited June 22

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1936676335750930533?t=yHCfNqFiUaNtWW5Z0fcCyw&s=19

    Hes a giant. I thought instability was surely priority?! I feel shamed by his insight

    For some reason, those photos of him doing his bit for the Canadian Tourist Board in front of the majestic mountain range just get more and more irritating.
    We are led by a pudding faced minnow of a man.
    Streeting will be pleased with the distraction today though, it might save his arse from the sack for yesterday's intervention (talking of pudding faced minnow men)
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 980
    edited June 22
    MattW said:

    Tice:

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1936403403116077166

    My concern here is the rush to a precooked judgement, rather than a desire to know what happened and why.

    Didn't this guy get accused of something recently. Thought he'd keep his head down for a bit. Many will note his general approach to those that keep him safe.


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,795
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
    You call people Centrist Dad often, but really you are a Centrist Grandad. You want to go back to the 1950s all the time. Latest being corporal punishment? Really? What with your other views you really are like the 90+ year old one meets who talk about the good old days.
    I think there would be some aspects that wouldn't work (potential of seeking to incur such punishments for bravado, cred, or even dares), no incarceration meaning freedom to repeat offend (though there would be a powerful disincentive to do so), levels of pain inflicted being potentially problematical in the long term, but the idea is not without its plusses.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,810
    edited June 22
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer were to join military action presumably he would want to follow precedent and get Commons approval. That might be very problematic, hence might inform some of his thinking. We all remember Cameron and Syria.

    He doesn't, hence there was no UK involvement in the strikes last night even in terms of bases. He knows at least half the Parliamentary Labour Party would vote against any UK involvement in such action with Israel and the US against Iran as would the LDs and SNP, Greens, SDLP, Independents and Plaid and he likely wouldn't get it through even with Tory and Reform and DUP support
    The point you miss and has been discussed in the media if the US is attacked article 5 of NATo means that UK has a responsibility to assist the US
    If the mainland US is attacked yes and if a Baltic state is attacked by Putin the US also obliged to assist though at present that more theory than certainty
    Nonsense - if a US base is attacked anywhere and just look at how many they have in the middle east, or US military personnel come under fire Article 5 apply

    Look up the Article - it doesn't specify geography or restrictions
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,222

    Oh dear, if this is correct.

    Medvedev : "There are a number of countries ready to supply nuclear warheads to Tehran."

    Medvedev is pure bluster. If what he said had any relation to reality, all of Europe and Ukraine would be a nuclear wasteland already.
    Medvedev is human BRACE
    We can now reset the “days since Medvedev threatened the world with nuclear fire” counter.

    It never gets particularly high.
    It’s generally every day with a y in it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,787
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
    Pillory and stocks.

    Done right would be a money earner.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,810

    England avouf follow on

    Is "avouf" cricketing parlance for avoid?
    No - for very old arthritic fingers sadly
    Every sympathy. Know the feeling well!
    And it's getting worse !!!!!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,012

    How many runs does Jamie Smith have to score before he makes up for his missed stumping?

    I'm going with 250, which is about 225 more than he will get.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,773
    edited June 22
    Leon said:

    Fascinating ethnic breakdown of that Ipsos poll

    Yes, subsamples, but wow

    Reform gets nearly 40% of the white vote - 37%

    Labour: 21%
    Con: 15%
    Lib: 12%

    https://x.com/surplustakes/status/1936731739122225321?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It’s only BAME voting which is preventing a ginormous Reform landslide

    Interesting to flip it - what proportion of RUK support is white? Followed by the supplementary - is it only the hardcore racist vote that's preventing RUK sinking well behind LAB in the polls?

    The first Q we can answer because it will be in the polling. And it will be high. Let's say it's of the order 93%.

    The supplementary is harder though. Many white people who plan to vote for RUK will not be hardcore racists. And it's hard to quantify the number who are because 'hardcore racist' is never in the cross tabs.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749
    ydoethur said:

    How many runs does Jamie Smith have to score before he makes up for his missed stumping?

    I'm going with 250, which is about 225 more than he will get.
    He's pretty much guaranteed at least 75. We will get a lead of over 100 for sure. I have foreseen!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,795

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1936676335750930533?t=yHCfNqFiUaNtWW5Z0fcCyw&s=19

    Hes a giant. I thought instability was surely priority?! I feel shamed by his insight

    For some reason, those photos of him doing his bit for the Canadian Tourist Board in front of the majestic mountain range just get more and more irritating.
    We are led by a pudding faced minnow of a man.
    Streeting will be pleased with the distraction today though, it might save his arse from the sack for yesterday's intervention (talking of pudding faced minnow men)
    What intervention was that - I lose track.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,803
    edited June 22
    If you want some light, watch the Trump announcement video and watch Rubio / Hegseth blinking...its in sync.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,949
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
    You call people Centrist Dad often, but really you are a Centrist Grandad. You want to go back to the 1950s all the time. Latest being corporal punishment? Really? What with your other views you really are like the 90+ year old one meets who talk about the good old days.
    I favour flaying.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,749

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1936676335750930533?t=yHCfNqFiUaNtWW5Z0fcCyw&s=19

    Hes a giant. I thought instability was surely priority?! I feel shamed by his insight

    For some reason, those photos of him doing his bit for the Canadian Tourist Board in front of the majestic mountain range just get more and more irritating.
    We are led by a pudding faced minnow of a man.
    Streeting will be pleased with the distraction today though, it might save his arse from the sack for yesterday's intervention (talking of pudding faced minnow men)
    What intervention was that - I lose track.
    Over assisted death - the NHS cannot afford it and MPs made a mistake in voting yes
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,668
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Veteran broadcaster Selina Scott has revealed she was viciously attacked and robbed by an organised gang in broad daylight in London last week.

    Amid growing concerns about the spiralling crime epidemic in the capital, the former ITN News At Ten anchor has described how the terrifying assault – which took place on busy Piccadilly in Central London – left her ‘shattered and traumatised’."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14835011/Selina-Scott-stabbed-robbery-West-End.html

    Gee, I wonder why the non Doms are leaving and London property sliding
    Just to point out, from 300 miles distance, that it is a catastrophe if London property prices rise, fall or stay the same. The reality is that inner London prices have dropped a bit - from levels that exclude the vast majority of people - and outer London prices have risen a bit. This of course is also a catastrophe.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,145

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1936676335750930533?t=yHCfNqFiUaNtWW5Z0fcCyw&s=19

    Hes a giant. I thought instability was surely priority?! I feel shamed by his insight

    For some reason, those photos of him doing his bit for the Canadian Tourist Board in front of the majestic mountain range just get more and more irritating.
    We are led by a pudding faced minnow of a man.
    Streeting will be pleased with the distraction today though, it might save his arse from the sack for yesterday's intervention (talking of pudding faced minnow men)
    What intervention was that - I lose track.
    He said the NHS probably didn't have the funds to administer killing people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,228

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer were to join military action presumably he would want to follow precedent and get Commons approval. That might be very problematic, hence might inform some of his thinking. We all remember Cameron and Syria.

    He doesn't, hence there was no UK involvement in the strikes last night even in terms of bases. He knows at least half the Parliamentary Labour Party would vote against any UK involvement in such action with Israel and the US against Iran as would the LDs and SNP, Greens, SDLP, Independents and Plaid and he likely wouldn't get it through even with Tory and Reform and DUP support
    The point you miss and has been discussed in the media if the US is attacked article 5 of NATo means that UK has a responsibility to assist the US
    If the mainland US is attacked yes and if a Baltic state is attacked by Putin the US also obliged to assist though at present that more theory than certainty
    Nonsense - if a US base is attacked anywhere and just look at how many they have in the middle east, or US military personnel come under fire Article 5 apply

    Look up the Article - it doesn't specify geography or restrictions
    In which case the European NATO treaties would also want it reaffirmed in writing by Trump that the US would intervene to protect any European NATO nation if invaded by Putin before taking action to help if a US military base was attacked by Iran
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,061
    edited June 22
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
    You call people Centrist Dad often, but really you are a Centrist Grandad. You want to go back to the 1950s all the time. Latest being corporal punishment? Really? What with your other views you really are like the 90+ year old one meets who talk about the good old days.
    "Centrist Grandad" is excellent. A non-confrontational way to imply the gentleman in question is a good sort but just behind the times.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,126

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    I ddon't know why Tesco's are wasting their money on "security"...they might as well ordered the thieves an Uber while they were there.

    Happened in Kilburn tescos yesterday.
    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1936680557062001151

    Even my local tesco express was apparently doing an all items free offer this week, the cashier serving me was unimpressed (and ill put her down as 'Reform')
    The ne'er-do-wells know that no one will stop them, the police won't show up, there's very little chance they'll get caught and if they're unlucky enough to actually get caught, they'll get told not to be naughty again and be on their merry way.
    Forget Iran getting nukes, if Starmer could stop this sort of thing, I'd vote Labour in the next election.
    I have never experienced or seen this, fortunate to live in a part of the country where at the moment it is not accepted by anyone as a way of acting. But what would be, beyond hand waving and unicorns, Reform's way of tackling it which seriously distinguishes them from the status quo and is affordable?
    TASER THEM
    I bought a rib eye steak last night in the local Sainsbury's and paid at the self checkout. It was security tagged. There was a label saying so, which I missed. I have no idea how they do that. Anyway on leaving I set off the alarm. I returned. Deserving of a taser blast do you think? Admittedly it is not like I was clearing the shelves, but I suspect they would be in big trouble if they inadvertently taser innocent shoppers.

    How do you think you should have been treated for all your illegal activities over the years? It is doubtful you would have ever been out of prison if you were treated like you want to treat others.

    Having said all of that I do have sympathy for your reaction. I feel the same sometimes, then sense prevails.
    No, you catch them, prosecute them, convict them - THEN taser them. Every day for a week. Don’t bother with prisons - they’re horribly expensive, cruel, and actively harmful

    New methods of brisk painful corporal punishment
    You call people Centrist Dad often, but really you are a Centrist Grandad. You want to go back to the 1950s all the time. Latest being corporal punishment? Really? What with your other views you really are like the 90+ year old one meets who talk about the good old days.
    I think there would be some aspects that wouldn't work (potential of seeking to incur such punishments for bravado, cred, or even dares), no incarceration meaning freedom to repeat offend (though there would be a powerful disincentive to do so), levels of pain inflicted being potentially problematical in the long term, but the idea is not without its plusses.
    Finally!

    We have massively advanced technology. We can surely devise new punishments that are truly unpleasant but do no long term damage. So they are a grave deterrent for all but the most insane hardcore types that really do need prison

    We’d clear up street crime in a month

    Why are we stuck with the alternatives of jail or nothing. Jail itself is a form of torture, is medieval and barbaric, and is horribly costly for all. And a breeding ground for worse criminality
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,795

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1936676335750930533?t=yHCfNqFiUaNtWW5Z0fcCyw&s=19

    Hes a giant. I thought instability was surely priority?! I feel shamed by his insight

    For some reason, those photos of him doing his bit for the Canadian Tourist Board in front of the majestic mountain range just get more and more irritating.
    We are led by a pudding faced minnow of a man.
    Streeting will be pleased with the distraction today though, it might save his arse from the sack for yesterday's intervention (talking of pudding faced minnow men)
    What intervention was that - I lose track.
    Over assisted death - the NHS cannot afford it and MPs made a mistake in voting yes
    I see.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,228
    edited June 22
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Fascinating ethnic breakdown of that Ipsos poll

    Yes, subsamples, but wow

    Reform gets nearly 40% of the white vote - 37%

    Labour: 21%
    Con: 15%
    Lib: 12%

    https://x.com/surplustakes/status/1936731739122225321?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    It’s only BAME voting which is preventing a ginormous Reform landslide

    Interesting to flip it - what proportion of RUK support is white? Followed by the supplementary - is it only the hardcore racist vote that's preventing RUK sinking well behind LAB in the polls?

    The first Q we can answer because it will be in the polling. And it will be high. Let's say it's of the order 93%.

    The supplementary is harder though. Many white people who plan to vote for RUK will not be hardcore racists. And it's hard to quantify the number who are because 'hardcore racist' is never in the cross tabs.
    Yes, Reform may well be first with the white vote in the UK but Reform are only 4th with the ethnic minority vote (behind Labour, the Conservatives and the Greens), so the higher the ethnic minority vote in a constituency, the less the chance it goes Reform
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,012
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer were to join military action presumably he would want to follow precedent and get Commons approval. That might be very problematic, hence might inform some of his thinking. We all remember Cameron and Syria.

    He doesn't, hence there was no UK involvement in the strikes last night even in terms of bases. He knows at least half the Parliamentary Labour Party would vote against any UK involvement in such action with Israel and the US against Iran as would the LDs and SNP, Greens, SDLP, Independents and Plaid and he likely wouldn't get it through even with Tory and Reform and DUP support
    The point you miss and has been discussed in the media if the US is attacked article 5 of NATo means that UK has a responsibility to assist the US
    If the mainland US is attacked yes and if a Baltic state is attacked by Putin the US also obliged to assist though at present that more theory than certainty
    Nonsense - if a US base is attacked anywhere and just look at how many they have in the middle east, or US military personnel come under fire Article 5 apply

    Look up the Article - it doesn't specify geography or restrictions
    In which case the European NATO treaties would also want it reaffirmed in writing by Trump that the US would intervene to protect any European NATO nation if invaded by Putin before taking action to help if a US military base was attacked by Iran
    Why? Trump will ignore any agreement he's made that he decides he doesn't like, writing or not.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,795

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1936676335750930533?t=yHCfNqFiUaNtWW5Z0fcCyw&s=19

    Hes a giant. I thought instability was surely priority?! I feel shamed by his insight

    For some reason, those photos of him doing his bit for the Canadian Tourist Board in front of the majestic mountain range just get more and more irritating.
    We are led by a pudding faced minnow of a man.
    Streeting will be pleased with the distraction today though, it might save his arse from the sack for yesterday's intervention (talking of pudding faced minnow men)
    What intervention was that - I lose track.
    He said the NHS probably didn't have the funds to administer killing people.
    Seems to do a pretty good job at the moment.
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