It's too late now, but obviously we should have let Covid run rife and taken no precautions at all to stop the old and infirm from getting infected. The short-term cost would have been handsomely repaid by the prize of huge savings on the pensions of the millions of dead oldies. We'd even have been able to keep the WFA and the triple lock. What's not to like?
We did have that discussion a few times early in the pandemic, when it was still far away in China and Italy. We wondered whether the countries that would emerge best from the pandemic would be those that lost more of their oldies to it.
Of course, we then saw that plenty enough younger people ended up in hospital too, and all shut ourselves away voluntarily even before restrictions were brought in.
There's nothing wrong with voluntary shielding.
Its the mandatory restrictions that are illiberal.
Again you miss the point, millions would have wanted to shield but would not have been able to because it would have cost them their job.....voluntaty shielding only works if all that wish to can do so without losing out
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's too late now, but obviously we should have let Covid run rife and taken no precautions at all to stop the old and infirm from getting infected. The short-term cost would have been handsomely repaid by the prize of huge savings on the pensions of the millions of dead oldies. We'd even have been able to keep the WFA and the triple lock. What's not to like?
We did have that discussion a few times early in the pandemic, when it was still far away in China and Italy. We wondered whether the countries that would emerge best from the pandemic would be those that lost more of their oldies to it.
Of course, we then saw that plenty enough younger people ended up in hospital too, and all shut ourselves away voluntarily even before restrictions were brought in.
There's nothing wrong with voluntary shielding.
Its the mandatory restrictions that are illiberal.
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
You have single-handedly turned straw clutching into some kind of performance art form.
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
You have single-handedly turned straw clutching into some kind of performance art form.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Another one. Just gone into Boots in St. Pauls. It's been hit up by shoplifters. Two City of London police in there asking for value of what's nicked and details.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
No "I'm still Jenny from the block" false modesty from you.
It's too late now, but obviously we should have let Covid run rife and taken no precautions at all to stop the old and infirm from getting infected. The short-term cost would have been handsomely repaid by the prize of huge savings on the pensions of the millions of dead oldies. We'd even have been able to keep the WFA and the triple lock. What's not to like?
We did have that discussion a few times early in the pandemic, when it was still far away in China and Italy. We wondered whether the countries that would emerge best from the pandemic would be those that lost more of their oldies to it.
Of course, we then saw that plenty enough younger people ended up in hospital too, and all shut ourselves away voluntarily even before restrictions were brought in.
We were having DNA rates of 50% in the outpatients clinics in the week before the first lockdown. The roads were eerily quiet too.
2 days before lockdown I did a "scoop and run" to get Fox jr2 from his student flat in London, as otherwise he would have been stuck. Hammersmith was like a ghost town, with empty pubs and just spectres coughing in the streets. It was like a zombie movie.
The idea that life could have carried on as normal is just bonkers. People aren't willing to step over corpses in the street to get to work.
Another one. Just gone into Boots in St. Pauls. It's been hit up by shoplifters. Two City of London police in there asking for value of what's nicked and details.
Absolutely rife.
At least police responded, hence Tesco now imposing VAR on self service checkouts
Another one. Just gone into Boots in St. Pauls. It's been hit up by shoplifters. Two City of London police in there asking for value of what's nicked and details.
Absolutely rife.
I’m amazed the Police give a shit. Round here they couldn’t be arsed.
Another one. Just gone into Boots in St. Pauls. It's been hit up by shoplifters. Two City of London police in there asking for value of what's nicked and details.
Absolutely rife.
At least police responded, hence Tesco now imposing VAR on self service checkouts
What, to check they're not offside when they nick stuff?
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
No "I'm still Jenny from the block" false modesty from you.
Exactly, William. South Yorkshire coalfield to the Hampstead crepe van. And there's no way back.
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
You have single-handedly turned straw clutching into some kind of performance art form.
Not straw clutching, just an observation. The average Tory voter is now posher than at any time since Cameron, all the white working class voters Remainers consider 'oiks' that Boris and to an extent May won are now voting Reform but Kemi has made a little progress with middle class voters who went Labour or LD last year despite further leakage to Reform.
It is now at least safe for the likes of TSE to say they are a Tory when visiting friends at their candlelit suppers in Hampstead or Kensington without being asked to leave, so they may lose but at least with class!
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
I'd be amazed if Chelsea and Cities along with the 4 NW corner seats (Uxbridge, Hendon, Harrow East, Ruislip) at the least on the West half of London are not Tory in 2029 (major polling changes notwithstanding) and I'd probably expect Kensington and Chipping Barnet too. Brent West not so much Elsewhere there will be inte4esting battles for them - Norfolk will be interesting, but I'll reserve judgement until the new Mayor and Council next May. They looked pretty solid in Jenrick country - Newark etc, regaining Rushcliffe looks nailed on to me and Peterborough looks a likely 'status' gain
Another one. Just gone into Boots in St. Pauls. It's been hit up by shoplifters. Two City of London police in there asking for value of what's nicked and details.
Absolutely rife.
The usual story is that the police don’t care, but in the City of London they clearly do!
"As the “collapsologist” Peter Turchin has argued, where the wishes of elites and the masses diverge, even in a democracy, it’s always the elites who get their way."
It's too late now, but obviously we should have let Covid run rife and taken no precautions at all to stop the old and infirm from getting infected. The short-term cost would have been handsomely repaid by the prize of huge savings on the pensions of the millions of dead oldies. We'd even have been able to keep the WFA and the triple lock. What's not to like?
We did have that discussion a few times early in the pandemic, when it was still far away in China and Italy. We wondered whether the countries that would emerge best from the pandemic would be those that lost more of their oldies to it.
Of course, we then saw that plenty enough younger people ended up in hospital too, and all shut ourselves away voluntarily even before restrictions were brought in.
We were having DNA rates of 50% in the outpatients clinics in the week before the first lockdown. The roads were eerily quiet too.
2 days before lockdown I did a "scoop and run" to get Fox jr2 from his student flat in London, as otherwise he would have been stuck. Hammersmith was like a ghost town, with empty pubs and just spectres coughing in the streets. It was like a zombie movie.
The idea that life could have carried on as normal is just bonkers. People aren't willing to step over corpses in the street to get to work.
I did the same. Instructed offspring to return from University of South Wales and Portsmouth. With the benefit of hindsight we can pontificate until the cows come home, but at the time no one had a clue what was facing us.
And of course the man charged with managing the crisis had been AWOL writing a book on Shakespeare that he had already been part paid for. He was far too busy to attend COBRA meetings as I recall. A bit like Farage's strike record for attending the EU fisheries committee meetings.
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
I'd be amazed if Chelsea and Cities along with the 4 NW corner seats (Uxbridge, Hendon, Harrow East, Ruislip) at the least on the West half of London are not Tory in 2029 (major polling changes notwithstanding) and I'd probably expect Kensington and Chipping Barnet too. Brent West not so much Elsewhere there will be inte4esting battles for them - Norfolk will be interesting, but I'll reserve judgement until the new Mayor and Council next May. They looked pretty solid in Jenrick country - Newark etc, regaining Rushcliffe looks nailed on to me and Peterborough looks a likely 'status' gain
Yes, the posher the seat the more likely the Tory gain or hold on current polls but the more working class and lower middle class the seat the more likely the Tories lose it to Reform.
Better to be a Kensington than Essex or Lincolnshire Tory at the moment
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
Another one. Just gone into Boots in St. Pauls. It's been hit up by shoplifters. Two City of London police in there asking for value of what's nicked and details.
Absolutely rife.
I’m amazed the Police give a shit. Round here they couldn’t be arsed.
Willing to bet the only actual response though will be here is a crime number
Another one. Just gone into Boots in St. Pauls. It's been hit up by shoplifters. Two City of London police in there asking for value of what's nicked and details.
Absolutely rife.
The usual story is that the police don’t care, but in the City of London they clearly do!
They turned up != caring.....say they care when they actually do something other than go there there we are sorry, btw here is a crime number
At lunchtime I saw a man walking through Leeds city centre carrying an iguana. He appeared to be talking to it.
It's quite hard nowadays to tell if a person talking to themselves and gesticulating is having a schizophrenic collapse or just on Bluetooth.
Yesterday i couldn't tell whether a tall rangy bloke was mad or on the phone as he had quite an extensive and excitable monologue in French. Then his rather small wife stepped from behind him
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
I'd be amazed if Chelsea and Cities along with the 4 NW corner seats (Uxbridge, Hendon, Harrow East, Ruislip) at the least on the West half of London are not Tory in 2029 (major polling changes notwithstanding) and I'd probably expect Kensington and Chipping Barnet too. Brent West not so much Elsewhere there will be inte4esting battles for them - Norfolk will be interesting, but I'll reserve judgement until the new Mayor and Council next May. They looked pretty solid in Jenrick country - Newark etc, regaining Rushcliffe looks nailed on to me and Peterborough looks a likely 'status' gain
Yes, the posher the seat the more likely the Tory gain or hold on current polls but the more working class and lower middle class the seat the more likely the Tories lose it to Reform.
Better to be a Kensington than Essex or Lincolnshire Tory at the moment
Bizarre, since the Tory strategy continues to be to rubbish business-friendly policies, and to try and out-Farage Farage in slagging off any sensible arrangement with our principal trading partners.
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
I'd be amazed if Chelsea and Cities along with the 4 NW corner seats (Uxbridge, Hendon, Harrow East, Ruislip) at the least on the West half of London are not Tory in 2029 (major polling changes notwithstanding) and I'd probably expect Kensington and Chipping Barnet too. Brent West not so much Elsewhere there will be inte4esting battles for them - Norfolk will be interesting, but I'll reserve judgement until the new Mayor and Council next May. They looked pretty solid in Jenrick country - Newark etc, regaining Rushcliffe looks nailed on to me and Peterborough looks a likely 'status' gain
Yes, the posher the seat the more likely the Tory gain or hold on current polls but the more working class and lower middle class the seat the more likely the Tories lose it to Reform.
Better to be a Kensington than Essex or Lincolnshire Tory at the moment
I agree but I'll be interested to see the agricultural seats, the big rural seats. Tories looked good in North Northumberland and Hexham but the agricultural Lincolnshire seats not so much (Grantham probably their best bet), in my own patch the rural Norfolk seats has different flavours- Broadland has more money types but somewhere like Truss's SW Norfolk - Reform will dominate Thetford but that's hoovering up Labour's strongest area, what happens to the farming money areas or the much more affluent Swaffham? Same in Mid Norfolk. Essex they might well have to rely on big names - Kemi, Priti, Cleverly!
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
I'd be amazed if Chelsea and Cities along with the 4 NW corner seats (Uxbridge, Hendon, Harrow East, Ruislip) at the least on the West half of London are not Tory in 2029 (major polling changes notwithstanding) and I'd probably expect Kensington and Chipping Barnet too. Brent West not so much Elsewhere there will be inte4esting battles for them - Norfolk will be interesting, but I'll reserve judgement until the new Mayor and Council next May. They looked pretty solid in Jenrick country - Newark etc, regaining Rushcliffe looks nailed on to me and Peterborough looks a likely 'status' gain
Yes, the posher the seat the more likely the Tory gain or hold on current polls but the more working class and lower middle class the seat the more likely the Tories lose it to Reform.
Better to be a Kensington than Essex or Lincolnshire Tory at the moment
Bizarre, since the Tory strategy continues to be to rubbish business-friendly policies, and to try and out-Farage Farage in slagging off any sensible arrangement with our principal trading partners.
That's the pot calling the kettle black given the Lib Dem embrace of anti-Americanism.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
I think the Green switchers dislike the vibe of the government. It doesn't seem that progressive sometimes.
What gave it away? The winter fuel allowance, the Chagos debacle or the hostile immigration stance? This government is to the right of Michael Howard as LOTO or John Major as PM.
Interesting comment under the UnHerd article I posted earlier.
"Peter B
On a separate note, I met up with four friends from university last Friday. One left his full time job around 10 years ago and does a little part time tutoring. The others stopped working over 5 years ago (over 10 in one case – he’s left the country and will never pay taxes here again). They will never work again. They don’t now need to financially. But, even if they did, the state of recruitment in the UK is now such that they’d find it extremely hard to find jobs that properly use their skills.
So we have four highly skilled Cambridge graduates, aged 60-61 sitting out the match on the subs bench. Of course, they do some useful community work. But it’s far, far less than they might contribute.
Now I don’t blame any of them. They’re simply playing the cards they’ve been dealt.
But if you ever need an example of how screwed up this country is and just how much is due to self-inflicted unforced errors, I offer this one."
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
I'd be amazed if Chelsea and Cities along with the 4 NW corner seats (Uxbridge, Hendon, Harrow East, Ruislip) at the least on the West half of London are not Tory in 2029 (major polling changes notwithstanding) and I'd probably expect Kensington and Chipping Barnet too. Brent West not so much Elsewhere there will be inte4esting battles for them - Norfolk will be interesting, but I'll reserve judgement until the new Mayor and Council next May. They looked pretty solid in Jenrick country - Newark etc, regaining Rushcliffe looks nailed on to me and Peterborough looks a likely 'status' gain
Yes, the posher the seat the more likely the Tory gain or hold on current polls but the more working class and lower middle class the seat the more likely the Tories lose it to Reform.
Better to be a Kensington than Essex or Lincolnshire Tory at the moment
Bizarre, since the Tory strategy continues to be to rubbish business-friendly policies, and to try and out-Farage Farage in slagging off any sensible arrangement with our principal trading partners.
That's the pot calling the kettle black given the Lib Dem embrace of anti-Americanism.
The Lib Dem brain donors thought we should apply reciprocal tariffs to ‘own Trump ‘, even though it would harm business and consumers would pay.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
In pandemics and such i did and will act according to what I think is best for first myself and loved ones and secondly others/society based on my understanding of the situation from the various sources of information available. That will not always meet government guidance or mandate but tough shit, I'm not a drone.
When the pandemic first reached the UK I really wanted to help out in some way, but was so tired from 'normal life' I knew I wasn't capable of much. Then the government told us to go home & stay home. It was such a relief, I could manage that easily.
Then when the first lockdown ended I realised that even though my work is voluntary, it still counted as essential - HMRC etc weren't telling anyone "No need to do your accounts, VAT returns and so on whilst the pandemic is going." So during the second lockdown I went in to work two days a week to keep on top of it.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
None. A largely over paid and massively risk free occupation. It is why dull people go into it.
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
I'd be amazed if Chelsea and Cities along with the 4 NW corner seats (Uxbridge, Hendon, Harrow East, Ruislip) at the least on the West half of London are not Tory in 2029 (major polling changes notwithstanding) and I'd probably expect Kensington and Chipping Barnet too. Brent West not so much Elsewhere there will be inte4esting battles for them - Norfolk will be interesting, but I'll reserve judgement until the new Mayor and Council next May. They looked pretty solid in Jenrick country - Newark etc, regaining Rushcliffe looks nailed on to me and Peterborough looks a likely 'status' gain
Yes, the posher the seat the more likely the Tory gain or hold on current polls but the more working class and lower middle class the seat the more likely the Tories lose it to Reform.
Better to be a Kensington than Essex or Lincolnshire Tory at the moment
I agree but I'll be interested to see the agricultural seats, the big rural seats. Tories looked good in North Northumberland and Hexham but the agricultural Lincolnshire seats not so much (Grantham probably their best bet), in my own patch the rural Norfolk seats has different flavours- Broadland has more money types but somewhere like Truss's SW Norfolk - Reform will dominate Thetford but that's hoovering up Labour's strongest area, what happens to the farming money areas or the much more affluent Swaffham? Same in Mid Norfolk. Essex they might well have to rely on big names - Kemi, Priti, Cleverly!
In Essex the rural areas are just about staying Tory in local by elections, with Reform a strong second, even as Basildon, Harlow, Thurrock, Clacton, Ongar etc are swinging strongly Reform.
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
I'd be amazed if Chelsea and Cities along with the 4 NW corner seats (Uxbridge, Hendon, Harrow East, Ruislip) at the least on the West half of London are not Tory in 2029 (major polling changes notwithstanding) and I'd probably expect Kensington and Chipping Barnet too. Brent West not so much Elsewhere there will be inte4esting battles for them - Norfolk will be interesting, but I'll reserve judgement until the new Mayor and Council next May. They looked pretty solid in Jenrick country - Newark etc, regaining Rushcliffe looks nailed on to me and Peterborough looks a likely 'status' gain
Yes, the posher the seat the more likely the Tory gain or hold on current polls but the more working class and lower middle class the seat the more likely the Tories lose it to Reform.
Better to be a Kensington than Essex or Lincolnshire Tory at the moment
Bizarre, since the Tory strategy continues to be to rubbish business-friendly policies, and to try and out-Farage Farage in slagging off any sensible arrangement with our principal trading partners.
Opposing the family farm tax and the rise in NI on employers is certainly a business friendly policy and of course Farage thinks even the Boris and Rishi EU deals were sell outs
I think the Green switchers dislike the vibe of the government. It doesn't seem that progressive sometimes.
What gave it away? The winter fuel allowance, the Chagos debacle or the hostile immigration stance? This government is to the right of Michael Howard as LOTO or John Major as PM.
The left isn't exactly calling the shots but I wouldn't go that far.
Another one. Just gone into Boots in St. Pauls. It's been hit up by shoplifters. Two City of London police in there asking for value of what's nicked and details.
Absolutely rife.
The social contract between the law abiding and the police has completely collapsed. In the 19th Century the British public used to be heavily armed and successive governments have disarmed the public on the basis that the "authorities" will protect us. It is clear that the police cannot be bothered/don't have the "resources" (yeh right!)
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
I wasn't. I was born in a force nine hurricane, and I howled at my ma in the driving rain. But it's alright, cos I got great A levels and went to uni and stuff.
Another one. Just gone into Boots in St. Pauls. It's been hit up by shoplifters. Two City of London police in there asking for value of what's nicked and details.
Absolutely rife.
The social contract between the law abiding and the police has completely collapsed. In the 19th Century the British public used to be heavily armed and successive governments have disarmed the public on the basis that the "authorities" will protect us. It is clear that the police cannot be bothered/don't have the "resources" (yeh right!)
If Reform wins this will be one of the main reasons.
I think Barty is a handy reminder of why ideologues should be nowhere near power.
"Prime Minister, they are rioting in the streets!" "Good. Chaos is how we evolve"
It is how we evolve. Do you think that the government would be so focussed on limiting immigration and deporting illegals and criminals right now if the country wasn't on the edge of rioting every time there's a high profile crime?
Suppressing dissenters is how we end up becoming a dictatorship.
Interesting comment under the UnHerd article I posted earlier.
"Peter B
On a separate note, I met up with four friends from university last Friday. One left his full time job around 10 years ago and does a little part time tutoring. The others stopped working over 5 years ago (over 10 in one case – he’s left the country and will never pay taxes here again). They will never work again. They don’t now need to financially. But, even if they did, the state of recruitment in the UK is now such that they’d find it extremely hard to find jobs that properly use their skills.
So we have four highly skilled Cambridge graduates, aged 60-61 sitting out the match on the subs bench. Of course, they do some useful community work. But it’s far, far less than they might contribute.
Now I don’t blame any of them. They’re simply playing the cards they’ve been dealt.
But if you ever need an example of how screwed up this country is and just how much is due to self-inflicted unforced errors, I offer this one."
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
None. A largely over paid and massively risk free occupation. It is why dull people go into it.
For too long, Americans have been fined, harassed, and even charged by foreign authorities for exercising their free speech rights.
Today, I am announcing a new visa restriction policy that will apply to foreign officials and persons who are complicit in censoring Americans. Free speech is essential to the American way of life – a birthright over which foreign governments have no authority.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
None. A largely over paid and massively risk free occupation. It is why dull people go into it.
That's a perfect description of my reprehensible city trader phase. The accounting was a proper trade. A craft in many ways.
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
You have single-handedly turned straw clutching into some kind of performance art form.
Not straw clutching, just an observation. The average Tory voter is now posher than at any time since Cameron, all the white working class voters Remainers consider 'oiks' that Boris and to an extent May won are now voting Reform but Kemi has made a little progress with middle class voters who went Labour or LD last year despite further leakage to Reform.
It is now at least safe for the likes of TSE to say they are a Tory when visiting friends at their candlelit suppers in Hampstead or Kensington without being asked to leave, so they may lose but at least with class!
I thought the theory was all the posh Tories had gone LD hence Surrey and Oxfordshire results.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
I wasn't. I was born in a force nine hurricane, and I howled at my ma in the driving rain. But it's alright, cos I got great A levels and went to uni and stuff.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
I wasn't. I was born in a force nine hurricane, and I howled at my ma in the driving rain. But it's alright, cos I got great A levels and went to uni and stuff.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
None. A largely over paid and massively risk free occupation. It is why dull people go into it.
Try running a business without one.
It is very difficult to. That is why it is a largely over paid and massively risk free occupation. It is also why dull people go into it.
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
I wasn't. I was born in a force nine hurricane, and I howled at my ma in the driving rain. But it's alright, cos I got great A levels and went to uni and stuff.
Hardly the definition of struggling then as I thought
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
None. A largely over paid and massively risk free occupation. It is why dull people go into it.
That's a perfect description of my reprehensible city trader phase. The accounting was a proper trade. A craft in many ways.
I hope you have a craft, Nigel.
Are you suggesting that being a trader is even more over paid and massively risk free than Chartered Accountancy?
Wow, what a life you have led. Have you considered taking exams to be an actuary or a quantity surveyor just to brighten up your unnecessarily early retirement/economic inactivity?
At lunchtime I saw a man walking through Leeds city centre carrying an iguana. He appeared to be talking to it.
It's quite hard nowadays to tell if a person talking to themselves and gesticulating is having a schizophrenic collapse or just on Bluetooth.
Yesterday i couldn't tell whether a tall rangy bloke was mad or on the phone as he had quite an extensive and excitable monologue in French. Then his rather small wife stepped from behind him
Hard to know if the last YouGov was little more than post-local election froth at this stage.
Interesting that Badenoch has taken a firm line against changing the 2 child cap (only party to do so) and supports extending WFP but not to 'millionaires'
Perhaps and I certainly agree winter fuel payments to higher rate tax payers are hard to defend. I could support winter fuel payments to basic rate taxpayers though I'm not sure what would mean in terms of money and there's an assumption the Government's own software can differentiate between pensioners on different tax rates and codes.
I would add it to pension income and require it to be declared at self assessment and taxed accordingly
Last year the increase in full state pension above inflation was pretty much that in straight numbers:
WFP: £200 or £300 (300 if one is over 80). Full State Pension increase (4.1%): £472 Rate of inflation increase (2.5%): £287 Rise above inflation: £185
And the year before, 2024, the state pension increase was 8.5%. I can't be bothered to do the maths, but the increase over the two years far eclipses the WFP.
But that is unusual. In normal circumstances, the State Pension only increases slowly (in real terms), so we have to be careful when we suggest abolishing the triple lock will fix the public finances. Over 50 years? Absolutely, it needs to be resolved. Over the next 5, with borrowing costs as high as they are? It's immaterial.
Health is increasing much more quickly, from a higher base. I don't think you can have serious attempt at bringing spending down without freezing that spending. Everything else is broadly flat or decreasing, as a proportion, since the 1980s.
We spend more on pensions than almost anything else, including education. Increasing it in real terms without it being earned is insane.
I don't disagree. I'm just pointing out that abolishing the triple lock won't change that spending much at all in the short run. You'd need to make an actual cut, which would be politically insane.
Do what the last Government did with public sector pay. Say that pensions will go up annually by 1% in nominal terms until the public finances are in order.
And Cameron's government was reelected, with an increased majority (an actual one in fact) having implemented that policy on millions of people.
If its good enough for people working for a living, its good enough for people who aren't.
I think that would save about £5 billion per annum by the end of the parliament, or 4% of the deficit, while guaranteeing electoral defeat. There's no chance any government would do that.
That's a fantastic economic saving and should be done then. Huge.
I'd like you to name any better economic cuts than that which would save so many billions. Without supposed efficiencies.
And Cameron's government was re-elected despite implementing that policy on millions of people.
You continue to have this bizarre inability to distinguish political analysis from a PBers personal views.
Not at all, you keep making excuses as to why this won't be done, when there are none.
You act as if multi billion pound annual savings are "only" a piddly amount of money.
But can you come up with better multi billion pound annual savings? Of course not.
You act as if increasing our second biggest spending item in real terms is "small" rather than the major economic burden that it is.
Address reality. Not pretend politics.
Multiple prior governments cut spending on wages and pensions in real terms when they made the argument as to why it was necessary and got reelected.
The idea that increasing it in real terms is a political necessity is a barefaced lie and economic vandalism.
You're still doing it. Weird.
No, you're the one pretending multi billion pound savings are small change.
"won't change that spending much at all"
Yep, that's exactly my point. Why would you throw away your majority for £5 billion, when you could make far more consequential changes without doing so?
Karl Popper - “If we wish to remain human, then there is one price we must pay: it is to live in a society that has freedom, and therefore a measure of insecurity.”
John Dewey - The quest for certainty is a quest for relief from the pangs of doubt and the shocks of change. It is not the quest for truth.
John Stewart Mill - A state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes — will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished.
Or RochdalePioneers - Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos.
You think Liberals are anarchists?
Liberals created the modern welfare state. Education. Medical Care. Not "sort it out yourselves"
There's a difference between liberal and anarchy, though liberals lean more into the anarchy/chaos side of the divide than the authoritarian/order side of it, yes.
There is a difference between liberal welfare and socialist welfare. Between support for those who need it as a safety net, which is liberal, and compelling everyone to do it without a choice, which is illiberal.
A Swedish style voluntary furlough for those who wish to shut down because they think its the right thing for them to do, is a liberal solution over the authoritarian you must shut down because we want order that we had and you advocate.
Sense of proportion though. Our lockdown was hardly the gulag.
It was against the law to leave your home without good reason, or to see your family. It was a form of house arrest that was worse than what convicted criminals with ankle bracelets face.
That you think its OK, speaks about your sensibilities, but then you've never claimed to be liberal.
I was ok with the thrust of it (mandated distancing and financial support) but not with all the detail. I disagreed with some of the more intrusive micro measures. Indeed I didn't comply with them all.
You didn't care because you are rich, retired, live in a charming house in a charming area, and have the ability to flout rules you determine are for the little people only.
So your opinion doesn't really count.
I always try to empathise with the little people. I was one once.
Being a toddler doesn't count as being one of the little people once
I don't think Topping meant that. I think he meant the strugglers and strivers. Which was me. I struggled and I strove and now I do neither. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
You are an accountant, you were born to be an accountant where is the struggle and striving in that?
None. A largely over paid and massively risk free occupation. It is why dull people go into it.
An accountant deserves a huge wedge, simply for passing all those dreary post graduate exams. A day at PWC rubbing shoulders with aspiring Tory MPs then after tea four hours of relentless study.
EMA including latest YouGov poll has Ref on 29%. Electoral Calculus transforms that to a majority of 34 seats.
Note that this is not a prediction in spite of the heading. It is a snapshot of today. Also note that Electoral Calculus has given up on modelling tactical voting. Too complicated - yet really important. So this table is pretty worthless! But amusing.
62 seats *without tactical voting* is pretty good for the LDs.
And 32 for the Tories "without tactical voting" is pretty damning for the Tories!
NB I think Electoral Calculus uses 2024 GE result as the basis of its "prediction" so any tactical voting in that election is baked in. It's additional tactical voting caused by Reform that is not modelled.
EC uses (i think) a blend of 2024 and its last MRP as the same %s will see different outcomes after each MRP release (I've been checking)
I think that's correct. I've been following the quite abrupt changes following MRP releases. For instance around 8th Feb this year, on the same vote shares, the Ref seats moved from 104 to 169. LDS moved from 73 to 63. It wasn't at all clear why. I might just stop using Electoral Calculus.
To be honest I think they are all useless in the current climate. Tracking the local elections and regional polling will give a better idea of rough seat score likelihood. As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats' That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Yes, that is not that surprising given London is likely to be the only region in the UK where there will be a swing from Labour to Tory on current polls given how low Reform poll in the capital relative to the rest of the country.
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
You have single-handedly turned straw clutching into some kind of performance art form.
Not straw clutching, just an observation. The average Tory voter is now posher than at any time since Cameron, all the white working class voters Remainers consider 'oiks' that Boris and to an extent May won are now voting Reform but Kemi has made a little progress with middle class voters who went Labour or LD last year despite further leakage to Reform.
It is now at least safe for the likes of TSE to say they are a Tory when visiting friends at their candlelit suppers in Hampstead or Kensington without being asked to leave, so they may lose but at least with class!
I thought the theory was all the posh Tories had gone LD hence Surrey and Oxfordshire results.
Posh Remainers yes posh Brexiteers are largely still Tory, working class Leavers now largely Reform
Interesting comment under the UnHerd article I posted earlier.
"Peter B
On a separate note, I met up with four friends from university last Friday. One left his full time job around 10 years ago and does a little part time tutoring. The others stopped working over 5 years ago (over 10 in one case – he’s left the country and will never pay taxes here again). They will never work again. They don’t now need to financially. But, even if they did, the state of recruitment in the UK is now such that they’d find it extremely hard to find jobs that properly use their skills.
So we have four highly skilled Cambridge graduates, aged 60-61 sitting out the match on the subs bench. Of course, they do some useful community work. But it’s far, far less than they might contribute.
Now I don’t blame any of them. They’re simply playing the cards they’ve been dealt.
But if you ever need an example of how screwed up this country is and just how much is due to self-inflicted unforced errors, I offer this one."
We're awful at matching skills and capability with roles, unless it's very obvious and very easy.
So we have lots of unfulfilled vacancies.
But also... A generation who can get to their mid-to-late fifties having done enough to make enough to not need to work for the money. The satisfaction of exercising a talent, doing good in the world, yes. But not the money.
Kind of makes sense- each pound we make has less utility than the last one (which is part of why CEOs need squillions to get them out of bed in the morning). But even before the next wave of robots, lots of us are productive enough to make enough for ourselves without working for a whole adulthood.
It's a new challenge to manage, starting with how do you manage people who know they don't need the money. I don't think we've worked out the societal answers yet.
For too long, Americans have been fined, harassed, and even charged by foreign authorities for exercising their free speech rights.
Today, I am announcing a new visa restriction policy that will apply to foreign officials and persons who are complicit in censoring Americans. Free speech is essential to the American way of life – a birthright over which foreign governments have no authority.
How will they be able to go next year to campaign for the Democrats ? Poor little bunnies.
For too long, Americans have been fined, harassed, and even charged by foreign authorities for exercising their free speech rights.
Today, I am announcing a new visa restriction policy that will apply to foreign officials and persons who are complicit in censoring Americans. Free speech is essential to the American way of life – a birthright over which foreign governments have no authority.
First he came for the political wannabees and public servants and I did not speak etc Then he came for the moderators of popular social media and websites and I did not speak etc Then he came for me for a unthinking comment I made on PB when half-cut on a Saturday in 2015 and he had me bang to rights.
Comments
As an example, the (weighted) yougov London subsample (klaxon klaxon klaxon) today on UNS would see Tories hold all their London seats and gain
Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Cities, Brent West, Chelsea, Kensington and in a straight marginal fight for Bexleyheath, yet the national EC result is '32 seats'
That London result is similar to what Find Out Nows London poll from earlier this month showed (albeit with the East side of London Tory seats at much more Reform risk......)
The Merlin Red Wall poll from yesterday implies some competitiveness 3 ways in parts of the red wall seats polled (42 Boris wins that reverted in 2024)
It's complicated out there!
Say what you like about Kemi but she should win back posh uber status west London seats like Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster even as Farage storms the working class redwall and much of provincial England.
So Kemi has at least made some gains with toffs even if white man van and Worcester woman and Mondeo man finds her appeal completely passes them by
At lunchtime I saw a man walking through Leeds city centre carrying an iguana. He appeared to be talking to it.
Absolutely rife.
2 days before lockdown I did a "scoop and run" to get Fox jr2 from his student flat in London, as otherwise he would have been stuck. Hammersmith was like a ghost town, with empty pubs and just spectres coughing in the streets. It was like a zombie movie.
The idea that life could have carried on as normal is just bonkers. People aren't willing to step over corpses in the street to get to work.
It is now at least safe for the likes of TSE to say they are a Tory when visiting friends at their candlelit suppers in Hampstead or Kensington without being asked to leave, so they may lose but at least with class!
Elsewhere there will be inte4esting battles for them - Norfolk will be interesting, but I'll reserve judgement until the new Mayor and Council next May. They looked pretty solid in Jenrick country - Newark etc, regaining Rushcliffe looks nailed on to me and Peterborough looks a likely 'status' gain
https://unherd.com/2025/05/britain-faces-deepening-chaos/
And of course the man charged with managing the crisis had been AWOL writing a book on Shakespeare that he had already been part paid for. He was far too busy to attend COBRA meetings as I recall. A bit like Farage's strike record for attending the EU fisheries committee meetings.
Better to be a Kensington than Essex or Lincolnshire Tory at the moment
Tories looked good in North Northumberland and Hexham but the agricultural Lincolnshire seats not so much (Grantham probably their best bet), in my own patch the rural Norfolk seats has different flavours- Broadland has more money types but somewhere like Truss's SW Norfolk - Reform will dominate Thetford but that's hoovering up Labour's strongest area, what happens to the farming money areas or the much more affluent Swaffham? Same in Mid Norfolk.
Essex they might well have to rely on big names - Kemi, Priti, Cleverly!
"Peter B
On a separate note, I met up with four friends from university last Friday. One left his full time job around 10 years ago and does a little part time tutoring. The others stopped working over 5 years ago (over 10 in one case – he’s left the country and will never pay taxes here again). They will never work again. They don’t now need to financially. But, even if they did, the state of recruitment in the UK is now such that they’d find it extremely hard to find jobs that properly use their skills.
So we have four highly skilled Cambridge graduates, aged 60-61 sitting out the match on the subs bench. Of course, they do some useful community work. But it’s far, far less than they might contribute.
Now I don’t blame any of them. They’re simply playing the cards they’ve been dealt.
But if you ever need an example of how screwed up this country is and just how much is due to self-inflicted unforced errors, I offer this one."
https://unherd.com/2025/05/britain-faces-deepening-chaos/
They are political whores with too many punters.
Then when the first lockdown ended I realised that even though my work is voluntary, it still counted as essential - HMRC etc weren't telling anyone "No need to do your accounts, VAT returns and so on whilst the pandemic is going." So during the second lockdown I went in to work two days a week to keep on top of it.
Suppressing dissenters is how we end up becoming a dictatorship.
So we have lots of unfulfilled vacancies.
https://x.com/secrubio/status/1927729522855600365
For too long, Americans have been fined, harassed, and even charged by foreign authorities for exercising their free speech rights.
Today, I am announcing a new visa restriction policy that will apply to foreign officials and persons who are complicit in censoring Americans. Free speech is essential to the American way of life – a birthright over which foreign governments have no authority.
I hope you have a craft, Nigel.
NEW THREAD
Wow, what a life you have led. Have you considered taking exams to be an actuary or a quantity surveyor just to brighten up your unnecessarily early retirement/economic inactivity?
Kind of makes sense- each pound we make has less utility than the last one (which is part of why CEOs need squillions to get them out of bed in the morning). But even before the next wave of robots, lots of us are productive enough to make enough for ourselves without working for a whole adulthood.
It's a new challenge to manage, starting with how do you manage people who know they don't need the money. I don't think we've worked out the societal answers yet.
Then he came for the moderators of popular social media and websites and I did not speak etc
Then he came for me for a unthinking comment I made on PB when half-cut on a Saturday in 2015 and he had me bang to rights.
CECOT in El Salvador beckons...