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Incumbency bias – politicalbetting.com
Incumbency bias – politicalbetting.com
Keir Starmer leads Nigel Farage by 15pts on who Britons think would be the best PMStarmer (44%) vs Farage (29%)Starmer (36%) vs Badenoch (25%)Starmer (27%) vs Davey (25%)Davey (41%) vs Farage (27%)Davey (33%) vs Badenoch (21%)Badenoch (29%) vs Farage (25%)yougov.co.uk/politics/art…
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I think that Farage as the alternative will drive a lot of tactical voting.
2029 is a long way off but shaping up to be very unpredictable outcome.
Only fair there should be the odd upside.
Voting intention polling this morning - YouGov due but More In Common is out and sees the tories dtop under 20% with them for the first time
23 to 26 May
Ref 31 (+1)
Lab 22 (=)
Con 19 (-2)
LD 14 (=)
Green 8 (=)
*subset klaxon* Tories on 3% with 18 to 24 yo lol
Dominic Cummings has told Sky's
@wizbates
he wanted to 'get rid' of Boris Johnson after he went 'rogue' and 'started doing the opposite' of what was promised before the 2019 election.
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1927596659849961838
@KevinASchofield
Dominic Cummings, who has some experience in these matters, says Kemi Badenoch is "a goner"
https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1927616860465299924
The 4%of LD voters favouring Farage over Davey in the head to heads is quite some headscratcher, matched by 4% of Reform voters going the other way.
... I don't disagree that trust is low, and the police (and other bodies) take some of the blame for this.
But we should all share the blame around. Your last paragraph is the lazy person's way out - don't bother to understand the reasons why the police might be doing this in good faith, just impute bad intentions on the part of a whole cadre of people working for us.
It also applies a double standard that is rife - many who subscribe to the suspicion you rightly highlight would have scoffed at the words 'institutional racism' which is the mirror image when applied to covering up inconvenient truths about the treatment of black and brown people.
(It's not clear whether you count yourself amongst the 'many' who believe this - so I am not directing this at you personally.)
Problem with the @MaxPB approach to Covid is that it wilfully ignores psychology and the herd mentality. "No lockdown 1" - by which he means everyone told Go About Your Business.
So how do we enforce that? Weeks before lockdown Tesco abruptly closed their campus to visitors - would Max have sent the police round to enforce them to open up?
People don't carry on as normal when they see the impacts of Covid. The Australian grand prix was pulled due to personnel getting ill. Football & Rugby would have been decimated, putting the fear into people. Lockdown or no lockdown, a lot of people aren't going to work and their employers aren't forcing them to do so. Work From Home happens anyway with increasing speed.
Does Max send in the police to force everyone to be "normal"?
As for "let the NHS be overwhelmed". Again, the psychological impact on people would have been huge. Same with schools where so many staff are sick that the school cannot open. Max sending the police round again? The police are also desperately ill.
It is - sorry to say it - whining bullshit. Nobody liked lockdown. It was a disaster in so many ways. But the alternative to a controlled lockdown was an uncontrolled lockdown. Instead of the authorities managing the situation we have panicked people managing it themselves. Chaos. Which is a bigger economic and social disaster as Covid rips deeper through society.
Meanwhile, this is an interesting bit of Kremlinology, even if it is a terrible paper and a terrible politician.
Today's Telegraph editorial cartoon;
For all that some want to unite traditional left and traditional right with a stern nanny state, it's not an easy trick to pull off. Farage may be the most gifted grifter of his generation, but even he has limits.
Even if that were the case, is homophobia really a justification ?
Leavitt: "Electricians, plumbers -- we need more of those in our country, and less LGBTQ graduate majors from Harvard University. And that's what this administration's position is."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1927534822701826111
If the Conservatives disappear then it suggests that Reform could poll into the mid-high 30s, and the LDs into the low 20s.
Ref 34
Lab 27
Con 22
Ref happy and Con pretty pleased with that compared to national picture id think
For best PM
Farage 27
Starmer 24
Johnson 12
Corbyn 9
Badenoch 8
Seems a little artificial to give an ex Lab and ex Tory to split those
We had the Southport riots spread across the country. Where the Welsh Christian perp was known, but he was an IMMIGRANT and they are all MUSLIMS so let's riot. The police DECEIVED people by not telling us he was a MUSLIM, so we need them to TELL US who these people are.
And so we have the horror in Liverpool. The police do exactly as they were asked. Release the information immediately. But its the WRONG information. Or maybe it isn't - I've read people doing mental somersaults because some MUSLIMS are WHITE. So in their twisted racist minds there is still some hope.
What gets me is that we had so many people out on the street videoing as the attack happened. We know precisely who the guy is. What he looks like. The registration of the car. And racist morons are still foaming on about conspiracy.
The police can't win.
Many of us are so used to getting what we want, when we want it at least some of the time (me included), that it sends us dolally when that breaks down. And any political decisions with bad consequences become a conspiracy, rather than humans doing what they judge best.
And I know that is Pure Dad, centrist or otherwise. So be it.
What's happened is that someone has told Trump that geography means Canada's cooperation is needed to make a continental missile defence system work for the US,
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5320801-trump-canada-considering-free-golden-dome-for-its-statehood/
President Trump said on Tuesday that Canada is “considering” his offer of joining the United States as the 51st state in exchange for no-cost protection by the proposed “Golden Dome” missile defense system.
“I told Canada, which very much wants to be part of our fabulous Golden Dome System, that it will cost $61 Billion Dollars if they remain a separate, but unequal, Nation, but will cost ZERO DOLLARS if they become our cherished 51st State,” Trump wrote Tuesday in a post on Truth Social.
“They are considering the offer!” the president added.
And then you remember. As always, Iannouchi called it. Jonah Ryan in Veep, campaigning for President by railing against the evils of "Islamic math"
The real scandal from COVID was that the working-age population came out with more co-morbidities than it went in with. There was barely any attempt at a public health campaign and we remain just as vulnerable to a new virus due to our weight and sedentary lifestyles.
In two years, you could safely lose over 100 pounds.
N.B. She herself is a graduate in communications...
(And I made quite a few of those arguments myself, at the time.)
But the initial reaction, or something very similar, was simply unavoidable.
@schooley.bsky.social
You're using math, which has a well known liberal bias.
https://bsky.app/profile/schooley.bsky.social/post/3lptr7k62ek2z
Most people want to forget about it - it wasn't pleasant for a lot of people even those who didn't contract the virus or contracted it asymptomatically.
As a result, most have gone back to living as though it never happened. You still see in my part of the world the occasional person with a face mask (usually an older person with clear health issues).
That people still paid uni fees to be locked up in halls is itself ridiculous. There should be litigation over that.
But no, it's always someone else's problem. We need to crack the population out of that attitude.
It's just maths, but it's also impossible for those who see government as being about sheer will to compute.
Given how infectious it is, it's only sensible to try to avoid passing it on to co-workers/elderly relatives/immmune compromised.
Maybe they should close down the US military?
A couple of examples:
One was the sheer amount of money blown on 'gold standard' PCR testing - and the slowness to adopt mass scale, far cheaper, and more effective self testing using lateral flow kits.
Unchecked COVID loan fraud.
One impact which has continued is public transport usage - the excellent Domestic Transport Use spreadsheet from the Government tells you all you need to know.
Tube use during the week remains at 85% of what it was pre-Covid but at the weekends it has recovered to be if anything slightly higher than pre-Covid. London Bus use during the week in the low 80s but at the weekend over 90% of pre-Covid numbers.
National Rail is at 90-95% of pre-Covid numbers as are car journeys (though light commercial vehicles are well up and heavy commercial vehicles just above pre-Covid journey numbers).
So, to comprehend Farage; Welcome to benefits, pensions, NHS, schools, police; and farewell Singapore, low tax, low spend, no deal Brexit.
Don't bother asking Farage. Talk to his voters.
Even from a UK perspective I think continued MAGA in the US through the 30s is more dangerous to us here than Farage getting a go as PM. He will be kicked out after the first term (less if a small majority/coalition) as he can't afford and doesn't have the capacity to deliver on his promises or even to come close to doing so.
You could imagine a scenario where they think this will get stupid people to vote for them, except they don't expect to face the voters ever again.
People have been debating whether Nigel Farage will become Prime Minister. They needn’t bother. For all practical purposes he already is > Daily Mail >
https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1927611536354259159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Maybe some enterprising journalist looking to sell a book will write about it after he leaves office...
Max never said people should be obliged to go about their business as normal.
There is a world of difference between people choosing to change their actions, and government diktats saying that you're obliged to do so regardless of preference.
An uncontrolled lockdown, a la Sweden, is far better than a controlled one. Let people make their own judgments and use their own common sense and do whatever they individually deem appropriate.
I agree. There were many mistakes. There were always going to be many mistakes. We should look at them and learn from them, but some sympathy towards governments is in order.
We could have a Golden Sage - the height above a pub table that Covid can't exist meaning you can unmask
Core elements will be:
1) Reform voters rely on the social democratic welfare state. We will run it better and take a hit at the wrong sort
2) Rome was not built in a day
3) Move towards net zero migration but see (2)
4) Various costfree pledges about returning to about 1960 except in all the modern things the people of Clacton want to keep. Like telephones, plimsolls and video recorders. Dixon of Dock Green on Saturday evenings
5) Tax, spend, debt, deficit: Rome was not built in a day but for now we can denounce our predecessors
6) Stop the boats but Rome was not built in a day.
But it was the obvious mistakes - persisted in against evolving evidence, and accompanied by fiscal recklessness - which were really annoying.
And the early mistakes were far more justifiable, of course.
He makes me look like I have a clue about things, he's that bad
Or is the point simply that it’s not a reliable metric and we should ignore it completely?
I still think my gut is right to say that until Labour shows delivery on things, their position won’t improve. I note health has dropped down the importance list again, is that because it’s being sorted out or just reported on less?
The economy seems to be holding up fairly well, immigration is falling, if Labour can do something on the boats there is still hope for them yet. Time is still on their side.
Basically, we were pretty fortunate that vaccines and communications technology had got to the points they had. A few more "thanks, boffins" would be nice, you know.
Some encouragement for Badenoch that 60% of current Conservative voters prefer her to Farage and Labour, LD and Green voters also prefer her to Farage
Note that last part - "we can't halt people's lives". No lockdown = go about your normal routine. If the government was insistent that this happen then people using their "own common sense" and not going into work is a major problem.
You talked up Sweden endlessly, as if we would have been Sweden. We wouldn't. A wholly different country in terms of geography and population density and travel frequency both from abroad and within. "Just be Sweden" is the "I believe in fairies" solution, where Covid was just the flu and should have been ignored.
In the real world with no lockdown, people start being seriously ill and dying in large numbers, society ceases to function as people choose to "assess their own risk". Chaos. Which is why in any process it is better to have control than no control.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_Results_250519_w.pdf
1) Reform largest Party
2) massive lab losses everywhere
3) Tories struggling to hold 100 seats and potentially struggling to be third largest Party in the HoC
4) LD advance holding
5) SNP recovery in seats due to total unionist split
The unknown is how well the Lab/Con shares recover or rather with Con their voters on strike return as we approach a GE and how much of the Reform vote share is 'protest/disatisfaction'
Reform 250
Labour 180
Con 90
LD 60
SNP 40
The rest/NI 30 doesn't seem a mile off what's likely as we stand
Policy would have to be very different for a pandemic with a mortality rate of 5% plus - or one that disproportionally killed the young rather than the old (as in 1919).
https://x.com/PoliticoForYou/status/1927390147168944293
My mum fell and broke her hip in Marlow last week.
Waited 4 hours for an ambulance BAD
Had a private room in hospital GOOD
Had hip replacement two days later GOOD
Been asked to buy for her own equipment off Amazon to help her up the stairs and to the toilet because she lives in Havering and the accident and operation took place in Buckinghamshire BAD
It's like a casting (One I did earlier)
The brief......."You're in Trafalgar Square looking furtive and you're meeting a Russian spy. Think George Cole in the Benson and Hedges Istanbul Ad".
We're looking at 5 good character actors
One comes in looks up and does a 20 second sketch with an incontinent pigeon landing one in his eye. It's very funny and everyone falls about.....
We send the casting tape to the client sure who he'll choose and he wants George Cole (who shuffled off his mortal coil ages ago so was clearly unavailable ......)
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=George+Cole+Benson+and+Hedges+Advert#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:5eca55bb,vid:8BJtclBucVE,st:0
But the question remains, what can Labour do that actually moves the dial? As right now they are treading water at around 20%.
Our King opens the Canadian Parliament, the first monarch to do so for decades, to widespread aclaim from a population breaking 60%+ in support of retainig their links with the Crown. It is not hard to envisage the King or his successor doing so again before nearly as long.
That Bank of England Governors seemlessly become Prime Ministers and others, like the Bishop of Islington today
appointed Archbishop of Melbourne, speak of deep and enduring bonds of Kith and Kin.
It is inconceivable to imagine anything similar happening with our former
partners in the EU. With no offence to them and to misquote 2TK, they always felt like strangers to many in these islands in a way Auz/Can/NZ never have and I suspect never will.
...Tim Farron, the Lib Dem spokesperson for environment, food and rural affairs has said Thames Water has “saddled customers with its debts and provided them with shoddy service”.
This should be the final nail in the coffin for Thames Water. It needs to be turned into a public benefit company and Ofwat needs to be scrapped and replaced with a real regulator with teeth.
Meanwhile Ellie Chowns, Green MP for North Herefordshire, has argued that the water company should be nationalised.
“This milestone is only the start. We cannot allow private shareholders to reap vast payouts while communities suffer from raw sewage spills and fragile ecosystems collapse.
The time has come to bring our water services back into public ownership, where accountability and long-term stewardship of our precious resources must come before corporate dividends.
James Wallace, chief executive of the campaign group River Action, has said “nothing will change unless the privatisation of Thames Water stops”.
What a miserable mess. Thames Water poured sewage into our rivers for nearly 300,000 hours last year while racking up over £22 billion in debt. It has ripped off customers, damaged the environment, and failed to invest in solutions.
At last, we are seeing a government using the law and punishing a major polluter. But nothing will change unless the privatisation of Thames Water stops. The Secretary of State for Defra must now put this failing company into Special Administration and restructure its ownership and governance so it can be owned by and operated for public benefit. Only then will the River Thames and customers see an end to pollution for profit...
Hard to argue with that.
Recapitalisation via enormous increases in customer bills, for the eventual benefit of a US hedge fund is simply unacceptable.
Selling off essential public utility monopolies to overseas owners is not in the interest of either consumers, or the national balance sheet,
A number were trying to get a medical “out” to try and stop prosecution. “He is on a medical track, and prosecution wouldn’t help anyone.” Etc
She made herself a bit unpopular by not going with that flow.
Tories will hope for the blue wall/sound money (lol) recovery
...The national water regulator Ofwat has fined Thames Water nearly £123m after two investigations into the company.
The watchdog has ordered Thames Water to pay a £104.5m penalty for breaches of rules connected to its wastewater operations, which is the largest penalty that Ofwat has ever issued.
That is on top of an additional penalty of £18.2m for breaches relating to dividend payments. It represents the first time Ofwat has taken action against a company that has paid dividends regardless of its performance.
The watchdog found Thames Water has caused an “unacceptable impact on the environment and customers”.
David Black, the chief executive of Ofwat, has said:
This is a clear-cut case where Thames Water has let down its customers and failed to protect the environment. Our investigation has uncovered a series of failures by the company to build, maintain and operate adequate infrastructure to meet its obligations. The company also failed to come up with an acceptable redress package that would have benefited the environment, so we have imposed a significant financial penalty.
Thames Water has said that it takes its responsibility towards the environment “very seriously”...
At this moment, Farage and Reform are in a strong position and if we were voting now, they would make a big advance in votes and seats on July 2024. Yesterday's speech by Farage, however, was further evidence they are nowhere near ready for Government in terms of a practical policy programme.
They don't even have a coherent policy for stopping the boats as far as I can see let alone tackling issues such as deporting illegal migrants already here and voluntary repatriation.
They are as far up the Magic Money Tree as other parties and as someone pointed out on here, no one is offering a coherent approach to reducing the deficit and borrowing. I doubt there's a pot of gold at the end of the DOGE rainbow and cutting Services will more likely impact the Reform core vote than those who aren't supporters.
More public spending and tax cuts was being peddled in the good times and no one believed it - at a time of anaemic growth, even fewer are going to be convinced and that would include the bond markets were a Reform Chancellor in their first Budget to announce such policies.
The problem with fiscal rectitude is, noble as it might be, no one wants to be the one holding the bill when the music stops (which is did last July).
Tories are generally dreadful at attracting tactical votes, so it would be interesting to see if it starts happening at all where they face Reform - locally i shall therefore keep an eye on NW Norfolk and Broadland/Fakenham both of which will be straight Ref vs Con fights (Con held) with a healthy LD vote to try and squeeze (I figure LD is the most likely source of these potential tacticals if they are to appear)
Our political establishment believes the way to counter Reform is to expose their bad economics and bad maths.
Well, if it worked in America... Oh, hold on, Trump was re-elected. I swear we are ruled by politicians who know damn all about politics.
To repeat, in Britain, this is reckoned a right-wing indulgence. In America, left.
Decades of socialism and soft-socialism have made freeloading a way of life for at least two thirds of this country, and they get absolutely outraged when those who pay for this country ask for a tiny bit of their own money back.
📊 Ref lead of 8pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 29% (-)
LAB: 21% (-1)
CON: 19% (+3)
LDEM: 15% (-2)
GRN: 11% (+1)
via @YouGov, 26 May
Chgs. w/ 19 May
britainelects.com
https://x.com/britainelects/status/1927648604786704544?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Thames Water is a losing wicket if you're trying to critique socialism. Support for nationalisation was 82% last year. It must be approaching 100% by now.