Talking about massive missteps. One of my obsessive points is insisting that cuts cost money. Austerity means we need to cut the budget so lets save £1 here. The flawed calculation is that there is nothing balancing the equation, that when you cut the service you remove the need.
This is cobblers. And now the IFS have done a study into the cut to Sure Start. Every £1 spent saved £2.05. So when provision was axed to save multiples of £1, it cost multiples of £2.05.
Can we stop talking about cost and start talking about benefit?
I'm surprised it's not higher than £2, tbh. Early years policies have very good returns.
If you look at the total benefits, the ratio can be something like 7:1. Employment rates among vulnerable kids and their parents tends to be much higher if they have gone through something like Sure Start.
And it's the same for most of the cuts now being wielded. At all levels of government. Lots of talk about rampant crime - the result of cuts to police numbers and criminal justice by the Tories. Town centres looking half-derelict? The result of that plus Tory cuts to local government funding.
My own council - and the LibDems are the minor party in the governing group - has an unmanageable budget deficit thanks to Holyrood cuts. Its axing all kind of things to save £1 now but cost £5 later. Its beyond stupid, but the rules governing local government finance dictate a "balanced budget". It is no such thing.
I hope my party actually takes the lead on this. Borrowing to invest and getting a return on the investment. Stop screeching on about the debt like if we cut it goes down. We're spending money on the wrong things. Spend wisely now - even if borrowed - and save later.
But, whatever individual studies say, government is terrible at getting value from "investment", i.e. spending, which is usually politically directed, incompetently managed and captured by producer interests like unions or building companies.
That doesn't mean that it's all bad, just that the overall record is dismal, one of staggering waste of taxpayers' money, crowding out the private sector and regulatory capture.
If government did it better, the old Soviet Union would have won the cold war, North Korea would be the most desirable country in the world today and Singapore or Hong Kong would be impoverished shitholes, and the North East and Northern Ireland would be the most productive and desirable regions of the country.
Allowing the enterprise and dynamism of the private sector to flourish is the way to a more successful country in the medium and long term, not tinkering with and expanding state intervention. Instead we have a government that always thinks it knows best and screws free enterprise over at every opportunity.
Hence our current stagnation and slow decline.
I can't speak for central Government but that's a jaundiced approach to local Government capital spending. School buildings of all types, additional and improved provision for vulnerable adults and children, better library facilities - all are a form of investment and I'd argue pay their way over the longer term.
The private sector would build what they want and what makes money for them - the public sector builds what's needed. There is already a partnership - the Council is the client but the private sector does the actual build and is responsible for working to the Council's provisions in terms of time, budget and quality.
In my experience, it generally works well especially for the kind of public buildings mentioned above.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I’ve always preferred Rayner ! lol seriously though I haven’t changed my tune and never been a Starmer fan and would have been much happier with her in charge of Labour .
The thread header reminds me that I had a genuine question: to what extent do we need (or want) some level of immigration to balance out our current demographic curve, i.e. to increase the number of working age tax paying residents so that it's in a better balance against the number of elderly residents who need pensions, social care and healthcare ? And if we're trying to do that, roughly what should that immigration level be?
All our current party political arguments will pale into insignificance when there are more of these MPs in the House of Commons
Your British Parliament isn’t just compromised. It’s crawling with Islamist settlers in suits, turning Westminster into a Hamas echo chamber. When MP Sammy Wilson spoke out about the October 7th Muslim Brotherhood led massacre in Israel, the political squatters behind him, settlers of Muslim Brotherhood ideology, laughed, smirked, and lashed out. Not at Hamas, but at him, for daring to call out the terrorists they defend with British taxpayer dignity. This isn’t Parliament. It’s occupied territory.
Utterly OT, but I can recommend the History of Byzantium podcast, for anyone into that sort of thing.
Unfortunately I've got past the high point in the narrative and am just about to reach the "everything gets progressively worse all the time" period...
Talking about massive missteps. One of my obsessive points is insisting that cuts cost money. Austerity means we need to cut the budget so lets save £1 here. The flawed calculation is that there is nothing balancing the equation, that when you cut the service you remove the need.
This is cobblers. And now the IFS have done a study into the cut to Sure Start. Every £1 spent saved £2.05. So when provision was axed to save multiples of £1, it cost multiples of £2.05.
Can we stop talking about cost and start talking about benefit?
I'm surprised it's not higher than £2, tbh. Early years policies have very good returns.
If you look at the total benefits, the ratio can be something like 7:1. Employment rates among vulnerable kids and their parents tends to be much higher if they have gone through something like Sure Start.
And it's the same for most of the cuts now being wielded. At all levels of government. Lots of talk about rampant crime - the result of cuts to police numbers and criminal justice by the Tories. Town centres looking half-derelict? The result of that plus Tory cuts to local government funding.
My own council - and the LibDems are the minor party in the governing group - has an unmanageable budget deficit thanks to Holyrood cuts. Its axing all kind of things to save £1 now but cost £5 later. Its beyond stupid, but the rules governing local government finance dictate a "balanced budget". It is no such thing.
I hope my party actually takes the lead on this. Borrowing to invest and getting a return on the investment. Stop screeching on about the debt like if we cut it goes down. We're spending money on the wrong things. Spend wisely now - even if borrowed - and save later.
But, whatever individual studies say, government is terrible at getting value from "investment", i.e. spending, which is usually politically directed, incompetently managed and captured by producer interests like unions or building companies.
That doesn't mean that it's all bad, just that the overall record is dismal, one of staggering waste of taxpayers' money, crowding out the private sector and regulatory capture.
If government did it better, the old Soviet Union would have won the cold war, North Korea would be the most desirable country in the world today and Singapore or Hong Kong would be impoverished shitholes, and the North East and Northern Ireland would be the most productive and desirable regions of the country.
Allowing the enterprise and dynamism of the private sector to flourish is the way to a more successful country in the medium and long term, not tinkering with and expanding state intervention. Instead we have a government that always thinks it knows best and screws free enterprise over at every opportunity.
Hence our current stagnation and slow decline.
If you look at the things that RochdalePioneers is suggesting as investment, though, the common theme is that they are largely investments that allow the private sector to flourish, not ones made to give government itself a direct financial return. Investing in courts and police allows the private sector to flourish because it's not bleeding money to rampant shoplifting; investing in early years education helps the private sector because there's plenty of available people with the skills to hire; investing in health helps the private sector because your workforce isn't on long term sick leave. And so on.
And I don't think RPs and Fishing's positions are inconsistent. If we spent more on those early interventions, the overall size of the state could be much smaller because it's not picking up the pieces after it's all gone wrong.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
I dislike them both. Rayner is, at least, from an actual working class background and not Keirs fake one he dreamt up playing flute in the seminary on Saturday mornings with Fat Boy Slim. She's what I'd describe as Lindisfarne/Jimmy Knapp/Red Wedge type late 70s and into later 80s Labour in the way Moggalogue is 1870s into later 1880s Tory. I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
I wouldn't like to be one of the shipyard engineers.
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un has condemned a "serious accident" during the launch of a new warship on Thursday, calling it a "criminal act" that could not be tolerated. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c39xzn970pyo
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
I dislike them both. Rayner is, at least, from an actual working class background and not Keirs fake one he dreamt up playing flute in the seminary on Saturday mornings with Fat Boy Slim. She's what I'd describe as Lindisfarne/Jimmy Knapp/Red Wedge type late 70s and into later 80s Labour in the way Moggalogue is 1870s into later 1880s Tory. I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
But but but, didn't you hear he is the son of a humble toolmaker.
All our current party political arguments will pale into insignificance when there are more of these MPs in the House of Commons
Your British Parliament isn’t just compromised. It’s crawling with Islamist settlers in suits, turning Westminster into a Hamas echo chamber. When MP Sammy Wilson spoke out about the October 7th Muslim Brotherhood led massacre in Israel, the political squatters behind him, settlers of Muslim Brotherhood ideology, laughed, smirked, and lashed out. Not at Hamas, but at him, for daring to call out the terrorists they defend with British taxpayer dignity. This isn’t Parliament. It’s occupied territory.
Even better news.... Lineker's podcast.. which I have never listened to.... will not be available on BBC Sounds. He really has copped it for his arrogance.
I was surprised it was and I suspect that part of the deal came from Lineker wishing to offer something back to the BBC because there is big money in podcasts which is why people like Simon Mayo left the BBC.
It was the opposite. The BBC were paying him off. It was a total farce. His podcasts were available 2-3 days prior to going on the BBC and there was no exclusive content. So they were paying his this content that in a fast moving world people who are fans of those shows will have already consumed outside of the BBC Sound eco-system and Spotify, YouTube, etc. And for this they paid him.
If it was about Lineker giving back, it would have been that his podcasts were on BBC Sounds first, or there was exclusive episodes only available on there.
Interestingly Mayo / Kermode film podcast is really struggling. They have a huge fan base when they were on the BBC, but they are really struggling to get video on YouTube and they have quit doing it in proper studio. It is now very much a budget affair with Kermode in his back bedroom.
It was a really good middlebrow show at the BBC. I tried the podcast, but it just didn't quite work. Perhaps the Beeb should try to get them back ?
How is the competition in the film space holding up? I suspect two large parts of the audience for film reviews are people thinking of seeing a film, and people who have already seen it. Less money for leisure spending will have put the kybosh on both of those, and Hollywood churning out mainly comic book sci-fi adventures won't help either.
Some YouTube Channels for film and tv reviews have become absolutely massive since COVID on the back of poking some fun at the nonsense Hollywood have been pumping out, some culture war stuff etc.
The problem now is there is so much content you can swiftly become out of sight out of mind, which I think has happened to Kermode and Mayo.
I don't much go in for film. But Mayo and Kermode were really good radio. I would deliberately tune in. But I'm not sufficiently motivated to seek out a podcast. It's a much higher hassle-bar to overcome.
I loved their radio show. I tried the podcast, I don't think their hearts are really in it.
They're boring viewing, just 2 old fellas in cardigans, moaning into microphones in their spare bedrooms. They don't say anything controversial and are keen not to upset the big players. The Critical Drinker, whether you like his opinions or not, is much more entertaining both visually and in content.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
At least SKS has stopped Andy Burnham by making every by election across the UK unwinnable for Lab.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
I dislike them both. Rayner is, at least, from an actual working class background and not Keirs fake one he dreamt up playing flute in the seminary on Saturday mornings with Fat Boy Slim. She's what I'd describe as Lindisfarne/Jimmy Knapp/Red Wedge type late 70s and into later 80s Labour in the way Moggalogue is 1870s into later 1880s Tory. I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
But but but, didn't you hear he is the son of a humble toolmaker.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
I dislike them both. Rayner is, at least, from an actual working class background and not Keirs fake one he dreamt up playing flute in the seminary on Saturday mornings with Fat Boy Slim. She's what I'd describe as Lindisfarne/Jimmy Knapp/Red Wedge type late 70s and into later 80s Labour in the way Moggalogue is 1870s into later 1880s Tory. I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
Are you prejudiced against people who have the misfortune to be born into a middle class family?
WRT questions like 'are you pro or anti inward migration'etc, it seems to me that we need a new category for polls.
We are very aware of voodoo polling in relation to sample, self selection etc, and can interpret and dismiss accordingly. But much more common is the use of 'voodoo questions', which if they capture anything get hold only of a sort of mood of the moment.
In reality few oppose arrival of top quality heart surgeons, and few support the arrival of convicted rapists.
YouGov (and others) are good at sampling. Are they good enough at framing questions?
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
I dislike them both. Rayner is, at least, from an actual working class background and not Keirs fake one he dreamt up playing flute in the seminary on Saturday mornings with Fat Boy Slim. She's what I'd describe as Lindisfarne/Jimmy Knapp/Red Wedge type late 70s and into later 80s Labour in the way Moggalogue is 1870s into later 1880s Tory. I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
But but but, didn't you hear he is the son of a humble toolmaker.
I’ve never understood why middle class people try and pass themselves off as working class.
I find this one interesting, particularly in view of the line being taken by the media, politicians and BTL commentators, and the huge Boris wave of immigrants:
Britons are more likely to describe themselves as anti-immigration (41%) than pro-immigration (28%)
Only 41% are anti-immigration, yet that is the pool that Starmer chose to fish in with his characteristically tin-earred speech.
I’m pro immigration, skilled inward migration. People from wherever who have skills and talents and will help the U.K. grow. Who will be net contributors. The more the merrier.
I’m not pro mass inward migration a la The Boriswave. I’m not pro importing hundreds of thousands of minimum wage workers with economically inactive dependents who will never be net contributors and my view on that has hardened over the last 12 months.
If I’d answer that poll I’d describe myself as pro immigration.
If you recall, the Tory line fed to people to parrot-recite was that we wanted an "Australia-style points system" because we set the points and control the numbers. We got that system and then the government set the points and the numbers coming exploded.
Part of the reason why Kemi is an irrelevance is that her government were so fucking inept at managing the border. She sat there in her cupboard the other day doing her press conference and alongside her was Priti Patel - the former Home Secretary who presided over the points-based explosion.
You may not have seen it but Patel was on GMB the other morning and when pushed on this she defended her actions in govt too.
Je ne regrette rien.
The Tories can criticise all they like. They have a record to defend and it’s not good. Matt Vickers was tweeting about Greggs and the rise of shoplifting and the police not,giving a toss. Under whose watch did it happen. At least SKS is trying to do something now.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
I dislike them both. Rayner is, at least, from an actual working class background and not Keirs fake one he dreamt up playing flute in the seminary on Saturday mornings with Fat Boy Slim. She's what I'd describe as Lindisfarne/Jimmy Knapp/Red Wedge type late 70s and into later 80s Labour in the way Moggalogue is 1870s into later 1880s Tory. I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
Are you prejudiced against people who have the misfortune to be born into a middle class family?
Hell yeah. They can all queue at e gates forever whilst choking on Avacado.
Dunno why, but amidst the daily torrent of bad news and horror that is reported these days, that little vignette this morning about the murdered young couple having just got engaged, him having just bought a ring, struck me deeply.
It’s very sad . The gunman hasn’t done the Palestinian cause any good coming at a time when more pressure was being put on the Israeli government. And a lot of Jews don’t support Netenyahu. This horrible cycle of violence is never going to end .
I'm so cynical about Netanyahu that I find myself wondering if this was a false flag operation to take pressure off him. I'm that cynical.
1 year since Sunak announced GE 3024 (in the rain)
The trouble with Rishi having more money than Gary Lineker has podcasts is that he has no need to rush out his tell-all memoirs that might reveal not just why he called a snap election but why he did so in the pouring rain.
Even better news.... Lineker's podcast.. which I have never listened to.... will not be available on BBC Sounds. He really has copped it for his arrogance.
I was surprised it was and I suspect that part of the deal came from Lineker wishing to offer something back to the BBC because there is big money in podcasts which is why people like Simon Mayo left the BBC.
It was the opposite. The BBC were paying him off. It was a total farce. His podcasts were available 2-3 days prior to going on the BBC and there was no exclusive content. So they were paying his this content that in a fast moving world people who are fans of those shows will have already consumed outside of the BBC Sound eco-system and Spotify, YouTube, etc. And for this they paid him.
If it was about Lineker giving back, it would have been that his podcasts were on BBC Sounds first, or there was exclusive episodes only available on there.
Interestingly Mayo / Kermode film podcast is really struggling. They have a huge fan base when they were on the BBC, but they are really struggling to get video on YouTube and they have quit doing it in proper studio. It is now very much a budget affair with Kermode in his back bedroom.
It was a really good middlebrow show at the BBC. I tried the podcast, but it just didn't quite work. Perhaps the Beeb should try to get them back ?
How is the competition in the film space holding up? I suspect two large parts of the audience for film reviews are people thinking of seeing a film, and people who have already seen it. Less money for leisure spending will have put the kybosh on both of those, and Hollywood churning out mainly comic book sci-fi adventures won't help either.
Some YouTube Channels for film and tv reviews have become absolutely massive since COVID on the back of poking some fun at the nonsense Hollywood have been pumping out, some culture war stuff etc.
The problem now is there is so much content you can swiftly become out of sight out of mind, which I think has happened to Kermode and Mayo.
I don't much go in for film. But Mayo and Kermode were really good radio. I would deliberately tune in. But I'm not sufficiently motivated to seek out a podcast. It's a much higher hassle-bar to overcome.
I loved their radio show. I tried the podcast, I don't think their hearts are really in it.
They're boring viewing, just 2 old fellas in cardigans, moaning into microphones in their spare bedrooms. They don't say anything controversial and are keen not to upset the big players. The Critical Drinker, whether you like his opinions or not, is much more entertaining both visually and in content.
As I say, I just don't think their heart is in it and they are signed with Sony, so it was be you must be safe and of course Sony have a massive media production arm.
Critical Drinker when he doesn't go too culture war or too SouthParky, is very funny. I particularly like his production hell videos. Also his straight reviews, where he isn't leaning too much into character / culture war, can be really good in a traditional sense, in which he does talk about the themes, the film making etc. He did one about new vampire film a few days ago and I thought that could easily have been a Kermode.
I sense to some extent he has hit it big with the character, but actually he is a little trapped, where everybody expects sweary drunk bloke ranting about the wokey Marvel slopfest, but he is of course an author and wannabe film maker and I think wants to do more of that.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
I dislike them both. Rayner is, at least, from an actual working class background and not Keirs fake one he dreamt up playing flute in the seminary on Saturday mornings with Fat Boy Slim. She's what I'd describe as Lindisfarne/Jimmy Knapp/Red Wedge type late 70s and into later 80s Labour in the way Moggalogue is 1870s into later 1880s Tory. I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
But but but, didn't you hear he is the son of a humble toolmaker.
I’ve never understood why middle class people try and pass themselves as working class.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
At least SKS has stopped Andy Burnham by making every by election across the UK unwinnable for Lab.
Genius
They had a spectacular May 1st though, you could count their councillors on the fingers of a football team. 19 more than the Greens, 10 more than the indies. Motoring.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
Mr Dancer you are part of the I never vote Labour demographic SKS is chasing, like a mirage in the desert.
I find this one interesting, particularly in view of the line being taken by the media, politicians and BTL commentators, and the huge Boris wave of immigrants:
Britons are more likely to describe themselves as anti-immigration (41%) than pro-immigration (28%)
Only 41% are anti-immigration, yet that is the pool that Starmer chose to fish in with his characteristically tin-earred speech.
Bit too simplistic I think. I would describe myself as “pro-immigration” but that doesn’t mean I don’t think that there needs to be some serious limits in the short to medium term.
Ditto, but that wasn't what Starmer was saying in his "island of strangers" speech, referring to the "incalculable damage" caused by immigration.
It would have been far better to talk about the positives of immigration while reducing the numbers.
The state has been talking almost exclusively about the positives of immigration for years. That is why we have Reform leading in the polls. "Shut up plebs you bunch of racists" tends not to win those people round.
(This is not a new thing: I remember a GCSE geography question in 1991: "describe two benefits of immigration" - even at 16 this struck me as curiously unbalanced.)
Actually, I think it's a lot simpler than that:
The Conservative Party, which has historically run on a platform of controlling immigration, completely shit the bed with the Boriswave. In the last year, we've had more net immigration from outside the EU than we have had from the EU in the last decade*. That's the scale of the Conservative failure.
They then elected a charisma free undergraduate as Leader.
* Of course, this is helped by the fact we've had negative EU migration for the last few years
Talking about massive missteps. One of my obsessive points is insisting that cuts cost money. Austerity means we need to cut the budget so lets save £1 here. The flawed calculation is that there is nothing balancing the equation, that when you cut the service you remove the need.
This is cobblers. And now the IFS have done a study into the cut to Sure Start. Every £1 spent saved £2.05. So when provision was axed to save multiples of £1, it cost multiples of £2.05.
Can we stop talking about cost and start talking about benefit?
I'm surprised it's not higher than £2, tbh. Early years policies have very good returns.
If you look at the total benefits, the ratio can be something like 7:1. Employment rates among vulnerable kids and their parents tends to be much higher if they have gone through something like Sure Start.
And it's the same for most of the cuts now being wielded. At all levels of government. Lots of talk about rampant crime - the result of cuts to police numbers and criminal justice by the Tories. Town centres looking half-derelict? The result of that plus Tory cuts to local government funding.
My own council - and the LibDems are the minor party in the governing group - has an unmanageable budget deficit thanks to Holyrood cuts. Its axing all kind of things to save £1 now but cost £5 later. Its beyond stupid, but the rules governing local government finance dictate a "balanced budget". It is no such thing.
I hope my party actually takes the lead on this. Borrowing to invest and getting a return on the investment. Stop screeching on about the debt like if we cut it goes down. We're spending money on the wrong things. Spend wisely now - even if borrowed - and save later.
Health is the big one. There was a discussion of Fraser Nelson's analysis yesterday and I always think it's funny that people don't consider that perhaps sickness benefits have gone up because people are more likely to be ill. It's at least a significant part of why the caseload has increased.
The problem is it's we don't measure the impact of things we take for granted. It would make sense that cuts to public health and primary care have taken 15 years to materialise in our benefits caseload. The same goes for Sure Start - those kids are now in their late teens, nicking stuff from supermarkets.
You mean the austerity plan of running up the waiting lists to save money was a massive own goal? Who'd have thought leaving patients for longer before treatment would result in their conditions being worse and secondary conditions, resulting in them being on sickness benefit for longer , treatment costing more and taking longer, relatives having to give up work to care for them and it all spiralling outwards at huge cost, loss of quality of life and production. Completely unpredictable
I thought health had been shielded from austerity?
The NHS was reeling from the Lansley reforms, which blindsided the Cabinet.
(At this stage I'd normally ask what the Tories were doing in the decade ostensibly spent preparing for government but now we've seen Labour.)
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
I dislike them both. Rayner is, at least, from an actual working class background and not Keirs fake one he dreamt up playing flute in the seminary on Saturday mornings with Fat Boy Slim. She's what I'd describe as Lindisfarne/Jimmy Knapp/Red Wedge type late 70s and into later 80s Labour in the way Moggalogue is 1870s into later 1880s Tory. I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
But but but, didn't you hear he is the son of a humble toolmaker.
I’ve never understood why middle class people try and pass themselves off as working class.
Working class don't try and pass themselves off at all. That's the tell.
1 year since Sunak announced GE 3024 (in the rain)
The trouble with Rishi having more money than Gary Lineker has podcasts is that he has no need to rush out his tell-all memoirs that might reveal not just why he called a snap election but why he did so in the pouring rain.
Do we think he even will. Are people really queuing up to hear what life was like as PM for Rishi? He has kept a very low profile and I expect he will quietly disappear off to the US at the end of the parliament.
I imagine his take will be it was very frustrating. I wanted to do things, I gave speeches and things never seemed to happen. I was hard working and did all my reading, but I couldn't make the ship turn. I didn't really enjoy it and the country needed a change, so I decided to step down early.
The government has trashed its reputation for being old style Labour, saving at best £2-3 billion per year on WFA.
Last month it borrowed an additional £20 billion, over £2 billion more than expectations.
The sense that policy, tax, spend, borrow and debt are not really under control is quite strong. Nor are the long term expectations great. 30 year gilts are about 5.5%.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
I dislike them both. Rayner is, at least, from an actual working class background and not Keirs fake one he dreamt up playing flute in the seminary on Saturday mornings with Fat Boy Slim. She's what I'd describe as Lindisfarne/Jimmy Knapp/Red Wedge type late 70s and into later 80s Labour in the way Moggalogue is 1870s into later 1880s Tory. I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
But but but, didn't you hear he is the son of a humble toolmaker.
I’ve never understood why middle class people try and pass themselves off as working class.
Working class don't try and pass themselves off at all. That's the tell.
Have you reached the OMG what was I thinking stage yet?
I'm more looking forward to the SKS fans (out there in the physical world, not the fine folk here!) thrice denying him before the Rooster crows. They are soon to become people who always preferred Rayner you know
I think I must be the only person on the island who might vote tactically for Starmer (well, his party, if he's PM) and really dislikes Rayner.
It's odds against, I didn't vote red last time, but the alternatives are Badenoch and Farage.
Of course, I might end up voting Lib Dem. But if Labour put in Angela "Tory scum" Rayner then there's no way I'd consider voting for them.
Mr Dancer you are part of the I never vote Labour demographic SKS is chasing, like a mirage in the desert.
He will end up on his knees gesticulating wildly screaming 'just tell me what you want!' at Nick Griffin and the ghost of Oswald Mosely whilst Yvette rocks back and forth chanting 'it's the right thing to do'
The government has trashed its reputation for being old style Labour, saving at best £2-3 billion per year on WFA.
Last month it borrowed an additional £20 billion, over £2 billion more than expectations.
The sense that policy, tax, spend, borrow and debt are not really under control is quite strong. Nor are the long term expectations great. 30 year gilts are about 5.5%.
Even the big cuts to benefits. £5bn is a lot, and on individual basis, it will affect some people in a big way. But in the grand scheme of things, £5bn saved in 4 years time, when you are borrow an extra £20bn here and there, it really isn't changing the course one way or another.
On more parochial matters, shoplifting is as much a problem in East London as anywhere else though more at the big national chains than the local family-run shops who have two or three big cousins on the door to deter any pilfering.
We used to have two Greggs before lockdown but now only one - they used to have the sandwiches and rolls out in full display in a frdige unit but suffered a lot of losses and on Police advice, withdrew them to one much nearer the counter. The local Tesco, Sainsbury and Lidl all have security on the doors and the gate alarms which go off if a non-scanned barcode item tries to cross. Greggs never had that.
My personal irritation is fare evasion which is ironic since, as I'm over 60, I don't pay to use public transport. The evaders are, and let's not call a spade a garden implement, mostly young men of all creeds and colours, who think they can outrun any attmept to stop them and can push through the barriers.
Sometimes, whole groups push through - I saw an article claiming 15% (that number comes up a lot) of all Transport for London journeys are made fraudulently (I've no way of knowing if that has any kind of truth but TfL would know). Clearly, TfL have decided the cost of trying to reduce the number of fraudulent journeys doesn't justify the return in terms of the additional income so they "accept" those who travel free fraudulently.
There are undoubtedly some who evade because they are desperately short of money and it costs a lot to travel across London in rush hours and I've a little sympathy but many of the younger men I see pushing through the barriers are holding top-of-the-line phones or wearing expensive clothes so can afford it. They simple choose not to. Every time the revenue inspectors come to East Ham they reap a fine harvest of non-payers (another is young people pretending to be underage).
I'm still looking for a political party who will take fare evasion seriously - Boris never did and Sadiq doesn't. Armed British Transport Police at every station, manadatory ten year sentences and/or deportation for any evasion, come on, Reform supporters, you know you want to...
As a complete aside, did anyone notice the Democrat Party win in Omaha, Nebraska earlier this week?
The Mayor of Omaha, a Republican, one Jean Stothert, bidding for her fourth term having won her last election by 30 points, was beaten by a Democrat called John Ewing Junior (surely not?) who won by 13 points.
As a Liberal Democrat supporter, I found this inspiring:
In the waning days of the Omaha mayoral election, Stothert attempted to negatively polarize voters against Ewing by nationalizing the race – and, in particular, hammering the GOP’s favorite wedge issue target of late: trans people. As my colleague John Nichols wrote about last week for the Nation, this did not work. Instead, Ewing refused to take the bait and kept his focus on tangible municipal issues – such as housing, street paving and even a struggling streetcar project. In a simple graphic released three days before the election, the Nebraska Democratic party proudly declared: “Jean is focused on potties. John is focused on fixing potholes.”
Starmer is done, he's just being kept in place until Ange gets her hair did ready for the coronation
Forget about her hair, what she needs is a better seat or she'll spend the next four years fighting a rearguard action to keep her existing one.
Unless one of the Liverpool or Central Manchester seats is going or she moves into the arse end of London there are no safer seats for Labour, they are all under threat
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
The universal asylum system needs to end, I'm afraid.
That doesn't mean we still don't take political dissidents on a case-by-case basis, or admit persecuted groups from particular countries in fair numbers as and when we choose to do so. But the right that as soon as you hit our territorial waters the full gambit of human rights applies to you and your family, you can repeatedly appeal and change your story, and you cannot be deported if you face any risk of being treated not to our standards.
That must end.
The whole point about human rights is that they are by definition universal.
Human rights don't prevent a state from managing its borders or locking up criminals or deporting people. It stops them from locking them up without trial or torturing them.
A large proportion of the US seems OK with throwing away their most fundamental constitutional protections (due process and habeas corpus), which are essential to any civilised society, let alone a liberal democracy, just to "do something" about their borders.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
Well, with superb economic news like that you can see why the Government's so keen to undo benefit reductions. Got to spend our immense wealth somehow, right?
From the header, how on earth do people think Bozo is anti-immigration with his track record?
People are clueless.
As an example of political cluelessness, in Ashcofts pre locals poll last month over 50% expected the Tories to gain seats.
Indicating that they know that Labour is in power nationally, that the Conservatives are the principal party of opposition and also that the party of government tends to lose seats to the opposition in council elections - which is knowledge I rather suspect isn't universal!
Starmer is done, he's just being kept in place until Ange gets her hair did ready for the coronation
Forget about her hair, what she needs is a better seat or she'll spend the next four years fighting a rearguard action to keep her existing one.
Unless one of the Liverpool or Central Manchester seats is going or she moves into the arse end of London there are no safer seats for Labour, they are all under threat
Given she's on manuvers, if Starmer had friends we'd get constituency polling showing just how weak her position it.
We should all take a moment to reflect and laugh at Manchester United.
As a bitter Arsenal fan I’m still traumatised from last night ! Typical Utd couldn’t fluke another win !
For the Europa Paint Pot? Give over.
It’s a bigger trophy than the FA Cup which is all Arteta has won in nearly six years.
In good Essex-related news Southend are through to the final of the competition for promotion back to League 2 after several years in the National League (and near bankruptcy). A trip to Wembley awaits, against Oldham. Who, on form, ought to be favourites, but there again, so were the other two teams Southend played to get where they are!
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
It's below the OBR's forecast for April borrowing, in part thanks to stronger than expected tax revenue. Borrowing for the fiscal year just ended was revised lower, too.
I find this one interesting, particularly in view of the line being taken by the media, politicians and BTL commentators, and the huge Boris wave of immigrants:
Britons are more likely to describe themselves as anti-immigration (41%) than pro-immigration (28%)
Only 41% are anti-immigration, yet that is the pool that Starmer chose to fish in with his characteristically tin-earred speech.
Bit too simplistic I think. I would describe myself as “pro-immigration” but that doesn’t mean I don’t think that there needs to be some serious limits in the short to medium term.
Ditto, but that wasn't what Starmer was saying in his "island of strangers" speech, referring to the "incalculable damage" caused by immigration.
It would have been far better to talk about the positives of immigration while reducing the numbers.
The state has been talking almost exclusively about the positives of immigration for years. That is why we have Reform leading in the polls. "Shut up plebs you bunch of racists" tends not to win those people round.
(This is not a new thing: I remember a GCSE geography question in 1991: "describe two benefits of immigration" - even at 16 this struck me as curiously unbalanced.)
Actually, I think it's a lot simpler than that:
The Conservative Party, which has historically run on a platform of controlling immigration, completely shit the bed with the Boriswave. In the last year, we've had more net immigration from outside the EU than we have had from the EU in the last decade*. That's the scale of the Conservative failure.
They then elected a charisma free undergraduate as Leader.
* Of course, this is helped by the fact we've had negative EU migration for the last few years
The debate is whether Johnson knew what he was doing (OK, I know that is a stretch) or whether it was just incompetence. And, if the former, whether he was simply relaxed about it, all the right-wing Brexit stuff being merely part of his act, or were the Tories in a panic at the gaps that might appear if all the EU workers suddenly left?
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
It's below the OBR's forecast for April borrowing, in part thanks to stronger than expected tax revenue. Borrowing for the fiscal year just ended was revised lower, too.
From the header, how on earth do people think Bozo is anti-immigration with his track record?
People are clueless.
As an example of political cluelessness, in Ashcofts pre locals poll last month over 50% expected the Tories to gain seats.
Indicating that they know that Labour is in power nationally, that the Conservatives are the principal party of opposition and also that the party of government tends to lose seats to the opposition in council elections - which is knowledge I rather suspect isn't universal!
That's a similar argument that the reform polling surge is partially illusory and once an actual GE is called the big twos vote shares will rise at the expense of Reform as the normally disinterested start to plan their vote. Which is probably at least somewhat accurate
We should all take a moment to reflect and laugh at Manchester United.
As a bitter Arsenal fan I’m still traumatised from last night ! Typical Utd couldn’t fluke another win !
For the Europa Paint Pot? Give over.
The FA Vase of Euro trophies
No, that’s the UEFA Conference League which the Spanners won in 2023.
Well, at least we won something!
Come back to me when you’ve won everything like we have in the last few years.
Plus Liverpool have won more European Cups/Champions League than Arsenal, City, Villa, Tottenham, Newcastle, Everton, West Ham, and Manchester United combined.
All our current party political arguments will pale into insignificance when there are more of these MPs in the House of Commons
Your British Parliament isn’t just compromised. It’s crawling with Islamist settlers in suits, turning Westminster into a Hamas echo chamber. When MP Sammy Wilson spoke out about the October 7th Muslim Brotherhood led massacre in Israel, the political squatters behind him, settlers of Muslim Brotherhood ideology, laughed, smirked, and lashed out. Not at Hamas, but at him, for daring to call out the terrorists they defend with British taxpayer dignity. This isn’t Parliament. It’s occupied territory.
Can you define an "Islamist settler"? Is my wife a Buddhist settler? (Clearly a settler in the area of romantic attachments but I'm guessing that's not what you're talking about).
Starmer is done, he's just being kept in place until Ange gets her hair did ready for the coronation
Forget about her hair, what she needs is a better seat or she'll spend the next four years fighting a rearguard action to keep her existing one.
Unless one of the Liverpool or Central Manchester seats is going or she moves into the arse end of London there are no safer seats for Labour, they are all under threat
Given she's on manuvers, if Starmer had friends we'd get constituency polling showing just how weak her position it.
I think Angela would hold her seat (and save many others) if she took over. She has charisma and campaigning nous. It's probably too early though, change in a couple of years.
I have always rated her. Never confuse lack of formal education with lack of intelligence or lack of political skill.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
It's below the OBR's forecast for April borrowing, in part thanks to stronger than expected tax revenue. Borrowing for the fiscal year just ended was revised lower, too.
Starmer is done, he's just being kept in place until Ange gets her hair did ready for the coronation
Forget about her hair, what she needs is a better seat or she'll spend the next four years fighting a rearguard action to keep her existing one.
Unless one of the Liverpool or Central Manchester seats is going or she moves into the arse end of London there are no safer seats for Labour, they are all under threat
Given she's on manuvers, if Starmer had friends we'd get constituency polling showing just how weak her position it.
Very risky. 180th safest seat, if polling shows its going they would be admitting they are headed for Tory 24 levels of spanking and that Nigel Farage is crap is PM
We should all take a moment to reflect and laugh at Manchester United.
As a bitter Arsenal fan I’m still traumatised from last night ! Typical Utd couldn’t fluke another win !
For the Europa Paint Pot? Give over.
The FA Vase of Euro trophies
No, that’s the UEFA Conference League which the Spanners won in 2023.
Well, at least we won something!
Come back to me when you’ve won everything like we have in the last few years.
Plus Liverpool have won more European Cups/Champions League than Arsenal, City, Villa, Tottenham, Newcastle, Everton, West Ham, and Manchester United combined.
We should all take a moment to reflect and laugh at Manchester United.
As a bitter Arsenal fan I’m still traumatised from last night ! Typical Utd couldn’t fluke another win !
For the Europa Paint Pot? Give over.
The FA Vase of Euro trophies
No, that’s the UEFA Conference League which the Spanners won in 2023.
Well, at least we won something!
Come back to me when you’ve won everything like we have in the last few years.
Plus Liverpool have won more European Cups/Champions League than Arsenal, City, Villa, Tottenham, Newcastle, Everton, West Ham, and Manchester United combined.
Compare that with Leicester. In the last 15 years we have wone League 1, Championship and Premiership trophies,the FA Cup and Charity Shield, and competed in Champions League, Europe League and Europa Conference League, (Also relegated twice).
It's a wild ride with Leicester City, but that is an amazing range of different contests.
Starmer is done, he's just being kept in place until Ange gets her hair did ready for the coronation
Forget about her hair, what she needs is a better seat or she'll spend the next four years fighting a rearguard action to keep her existing one.
Unless one of the Liverpool or Central Manchester seats is going or she moves into the arse end of London there are no safer seats for Labour, they are all under threat
Given she's on manuvers, if Starmer had friends we'd get constituency polling showing just how weak her position it.
I think Angela would hold her seat (and save many others) if she took over. She has charisma and campaigning nous. It's probably too early though, change in a couple of years.
I have always rated her. Never confuse lack of formal education with lack of intelligence or lack of political skill.
Probably agree. I think a Rayner premiership means no chance of a second majority but firebreaks Labour at 200 seats or a bit more. She's the 'guarantee we live to fight another day' candidate
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
It's below the OBR's forecast for April borrowing, in part thanks to stronger than expected tax revenue. Borrowing for the fiscal year just ended was revised lower, too.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
It's below the OBR's forecast for April borrowing, in part thanks to stronger than expected tax revenue. Borrowing for the fiscal year just ended was revised lower, too.
"Borrowing in April is £1.0 billion above last year and £3.5 billion below the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast, with cash receipts slightly above profile and central government net investment lower than expected."
We should all take a moment to reflect and laugh at Manchester United.
As a bitter Arsenal fan I’m still traumatised from last night ! Typical Utd couldn’t fluke another win !
For the Europa Paint Pot? Give over.
The FA Vase of Euro trophies
No, that’s the UEFA Conference League which the Spanners won in 2023.
Well, at least we won something!
Come back to me when you’ve won everything like we have in the last few years.
Plus Liverpool have won more European Cups/Champions League than Arsenal, City, Villa, Tottenham, Newcastle, Everton, West Ham, and Manchester United combined.
If only Liverpool fans would mention it more often
I wouldn't like to be one of the shipyard engineers.
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un has condemned a "serious accident" during the launch of a new warship on Thursday, calling it a "criminal act" that could not be tolerated. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c39xzn970pyo
What horrible way will Kim dream up to terminate them I wonder? Pour encourages les autres a great naval tradition of course.
I'm just curious about the meaning of "unscientific empiricism",
..After watching the whole course of the accident, Kim said, "It was a serious accident and criminal act caused by absolute carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism which is out of the bounds of possibility and could not be tolerated," according to the KCNA...,/I>
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
Well, with superb economic news like that you can see why the Government's so keen to undo benefit reductions. Got to spend our immense wealth somehow, right?
We do have immense wealth that needs to be spent. By our loaded, mortgage-free pensioners.
Perhaps the WFA should be conditional on private spending by OAP households rising by at least 10%. Sort of BOGOF offer. Send in the receipts and you get your fuel payment.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
It's below the OBR's forecast for April borrowing, in part thanks to stronger than expected tax revenue. Borrowing for the fiscal year just ended was revised lower, too.
My bad. Still way over OBR estimate for borrowing for the year.
The April data are the first of the fiscal year and are below the OBR's estimate. Borrowing for the fiscal year just ended was revised down £3.6bn vs the OBR's March forecast, too. So I'm not really sure what you are referring to.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show government borrowing yet again above forecasts. April’s figure is the fourth-highest on record…
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
It's below the OBR's forecast for April borrowing, in part thanks to stronger than expected tax revenue. Borrowing for the fiscal year just ended was revised lower, too.
My bad. Still way over OBR estimate for borrowing for the year.
The April data are the first of the fiscal year and are below the OBR's estimate. Borrowing for the fiscal year just ended was revised down £3.6bn vs the OBR's March forecast, too. So I'm not really sure what you are referring to.
£17bn over what was budgeted for last year even with the revision.
We should all take a moment to reflect and laugh at Manchester United.
As a bitter Arsenal fan I’m still traumatised from last night ! Typical Utd couldn’t fluke another win !
For the Europa Paint Pot? Give over.
It’s a bigger trophy than the FA Cup which is all Arteta has won in nearly six years.
In good Essex-related news Southend are through to the final of the competition for promotion back to League 2 after several years in the National League (and near bankruptcy). A trip to Wembley awaits, against Oldham. Who, on form, ought to be favourites, but there again, so were the other two teams Southend played to get where they are!
I remember playing the Shrimpers in League 1, I am sure that we will meet again in the league, hopefully because of you on the way up rather than us on the way down!
Net migration down to 431,000 for year ending December 2024
Director of population statistics at the ONS Mary Gregory says: "Our provisional estimates show net migration has almost halved compared with the previous year, driven by falling numbers of people coming to work and study, particularly student dependants.
"There has also been an increase in emigration over the 12 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased."
I find this one interesting, particularly in view of the line being taken by the media, politicians and BTL commentators, and the huge Boris wave of immigrants:
Britons are more likely to describe themselves as anti-immigration (41%) than pro-immigration (28%)
Only 41% are anti-immigration, yet that is the pool that Starmer chose to fish in with his characteristically tin-earred speech.
Bit too simplistic I think. I would describe myself as “pro-immigration” but that doesn’t mean I don’t think that there needs to be some serious limits in the short to medium term.
Ditto, but that wasn't what Starmer was saying in his "island of strangers" speech, referring to the "incalculable damage" caused by immigration.
It would have been far better to talk about the positives of immigration while reducing the numbers.
The state has been talking almost exclusively about the positives of immigration for years. That is why we have Reform leading in the polls. "Shut up plebs you bunch of racists" tends not to win those people round.
(This is not a new thing: I remember a GCSE geography question in 1991: "describe two benefits of immigration" - even at 16 this struck me as curiously unbalanced.)
Actually, I think it's a lot simpler than that:
The Conservative Party, which has historically run on a platform of controlling immigration, completely shit the bed with the Boriswave. In the last year, we've had more net immigration from outside the EU than we have had from the EU in the last decade*. That's the scale of the Conservative failure.
They then elected a charisma free undergraduate as Leader.
* Of course, this is helped by the fact we've had negative EU migration for the last few years
The debate is whether Johnson knew what he was doing (OK, I know that is a stretch) or whether it was just incompetence. And, if the former, whether he was simply relaxed about it, all the right-wing Brexit stuff being merely part of his act, or were the Tories in a panic at the gaps that might appear if all the EU workers suddenly left?
Well, both. Boris has always been open about being supremely relaxed about immigration. And while I don't agree with it, being an open-borders Brexiter isn't necessarily incoherent. But also, there are large parts of the Conservative Party who still see themselves as the party of capital. And to go all Marxist for a moment, capital benefits from immigration; labour suffers.
Reading through the Angela Rayner suggestion that are supposed to represent a shattering of the Government into pieces, I'm surprised at how modest they are - mainly closing a few loopholes and a few minor changes, to raise ~£4bn per annum.
If this is significant, rather than just a normal process of debate within Cabinet Governmemt, then they do have a problem.
Starmer is done, he's just being kept in place until Ange gets her hair did ready for the coronation
Forget about her hair, what she needs is a better seat or she'll spend the next four years fighting a rearguard action to keep her existing one.
Unless one of the Liverpool or Central Manchester seats is going or she moves into the arse end of London there are no safer seats for Labour, they are all under threat
Given she's on manuvers, if Starmer had friends we'd get constituency polling showing just how weak her position it.
Was the leak from Rayner though? Is she close to the Telegraph?
Oh, and while we aren't on the subject, how at PMQs did Kemi contrive to allude to the tax memo but not ask Starmer directly? We seem to have a whole generation of politicians, on all sides of the House, who know damn all about politics.
On the subject of PMQs, it was the same old story. Oral slips from Starmer. Kemi asking the wrong questions badly. Starmer not answering by batting away some peripheral matter Kemi raised in her meandering build-up. Kemi not noticing Starmer's WFA concession until halfway through, when presumably someone whispered in her ear.
We should all take a moment to reflect and laugh at Manchester United.
As a bitter Arsenal fan I’m still traumatised from last night ! Typical Utd couldn’t fluke another win !
For the Europa Paint Pot? Give over.
It’s a bigger trophy than the FA Cup which is all Arteta has won in nearly six years.
In good Essex-related news Southend are through to the final of the competition for promotion back to League 2 after several years in the National League (and near bankruptcy). A trip to Wembley awaits, against Oldham. Who, on form, ought to be favourites, but there again, so were the other two teams Southend played to get where they are!
I remember playing the Shrimpers in League 1, I am sure that we will meet again in the league, hopefully because of you on the way up rather than us on the way down!
Thanks; that would be good! The new owners seem to have made a considerable difference, if only by ensuring financial stability.
Summer sport now; Test against Zimbabwe starts today, Ireland beat the Windies yesterday and England Women beat their Windies opposite numbers too.
I wouldn't like to be one of the shipyard engineers.
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un has condemned a "serious accident" during the launch of a new warship on Thursday, calling it a "criminal act" that could not be tolerated. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c39xzn970pyo
What horrible way will Kim dream up to terminate them I wonder? Pour encourages les autres a great naval tradition of course.
I'm just curious about the meaning of "unscientific empiricism",
..After watching the whole course of the accident, Kim said, "It was a serious accident and criminal act caused by absolute carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism which is out of the bounds of possibility and could not be tolerated," according to the KCNA...,/I>
I find this one interesting, particularly in view of the line being taken by the media, politicians and BTL commentators, and the huge Boris wave of immigrants:
Britons are more likely to describe themselves as anti-immigration (41%) than pro-immigration (28%)
Only 41% are anti-immigration, yet that is the pool that Starmer chose to fish in with his characteristically tin-earred speech.
Bit too simplistic I think. I would describe myself as “pro-immigration” but that doesn’t mean I don’t think that there needs to be some serious limits in the short to medium term.
Ditto, but that wasn't what Starmer was saying in his "island of strangers" speech, referring to the "incalculable damage" caused by immigration.
It would have been far better to talk about the positives of immigration while reducing the numbers.
The state has been talking almost exclusively about the positives of immigration for years. That is why we have Reform leading in the polls. "Shut up plebs you bunch of racists" tends not to win those people round.
(This is not a new thing: I remember a GCSE geography question in 1991: "describe two benefits of immigration" - even at 16 this struck me as curiously unbalanced.)
Actually, I think it's a lot simpler than that:
The Conservative Party, which has historically run on a platform of controlling immigration, completely shit the bed with the Boriswave. In the last year, we've had more net immigration from outside the EU than we have had from the EU in the last decade*. That's the scale of the Conservative failure.
They then elected a charisma free undergraduate as Leader.
* Of course, this is helped by the fact we've had negative EU migration for the last few years
The debate is whether Johnson knew what he was doing (OK, I know that is a stretch) or whether it was just incompetence. And, if the former, whether he was simply relaxed about it, all the right-wing Brexit stuff being merely part of his act, or were the Tories in a panic at the gaps that might appear if all the EU workers suddenly left?
Pumping the NHS full of money (as promised on a bus) led to hundreds of thousands of more NHS workers, much of these had to be immigrants.
Interestingly the number of EU NHS workers also increased after leaving the EU:
Similarly with care workers, greater demand for services required greater need for immigrant workers. And given the low wages paid in the sector immigrant workers from the third world.
The area where the last government was most at fault over was the number of dependents of immigrant workers, especially dependents of low paid workers.
Net migration down to 431,000 for year ending December 2024
Director of population statistics at the ONS Mary Gregory says: "Our provisional estimates show net migration has almost halved compared with the previous year, driven by falling numbers of people coming to work and study, particularly student dependants.
"There has also been an increase in emigration over the 12 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased."
Hilarious that they're trying to spin this as a positive.
Net migration down to 431,000 for year ending December 2024
Someone was predicting 55% down the other day, so that's close to where it is.
That looks to me like an interim positive and a defensible position, that needs continuation of the same trend for longer. That is similar to be significant from a change-of-direction angle, but still not as large an impact on the total as Keir Starmer needs to win the narrative battle, as we see in NHS Waiting List reductions.
I wonder what the full number for 25Q3 to 26Q2 will be when we get it?
Comments
The private sector would build what they want and what makes money for them - the public sector builds what's needed. There is already a partnership - the Council is the client but the private sector does the actual build and is responsible for working to the Council's provisions in terms of time, budget and quality.
In my experience, it generally works well especially for the kind of public buildings mentioned above.
Your British Parliament isn’t just compromised. It’s crawling with Islamist settlers in suits, turning Westminster into a Hamas echo chamber. When MP Sammy Wilson spoke out about the October 7th Muslim Brotherhood led massacre in Israel, the political squatters behind him, settlers of Muslim Brotherhood ideology, laughed, smirked, and lashed out. Not at Hamas, but at him, for daring to call out the terrorists they defend with British taxpayer dignity.
This isn’t Parliament. It’s occupied territory.
https://x.com/amjadt25/status/1925191688286294383?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
A year is a long time etc...
I mean, what is this 'rain'?
I'd vote Kemi or Nigel ahead of either but intend to vote for neither as it stands
Its forecast to rain every day next week.
Sunshine on work days, rain on holidays. Thanks Starmer.
I see it’s reached Scotland, I guess we’ll find out in a couple of weeks how accurate the old ‘Scotland is just as racist as England’ meme is.
https://x.com/daily_record/status/1925437090252071334?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Genius
We are very aware of voodoo polling in relation to sample, self selection etc, and can interpret and dismiss accordingly. But much more common is the use of 'voodoo questions', which if they capture anything get hold only of a sort of mood of the moment.
In reality few oppose arrival of top quality heart surgeons, and few support the arrival of convicted rapists.
YouGov (and others) are good at sampling. Are they good enough at framing questions?
Je ne regrette rien.
The Tories can criticise all they like. They have a record to defend and it’s not good. Matt Vickers was tweeting about Greggs and the rise of shoplifting and the police not,giving a toss. Under whose watch did it happen. At least SKS is trying to do something now.
Critical Drinker when he doesn't go too culture war or too SouthParky, is very funny. I particularly like his production hell videos. Also his straight reviews, where he isn't leaning too much into character / culture war, can be really good in a traditional sense, in which he does talk about the themes, the film making etc. He did one about new vampire film a few days ago and I thought that could easily have been a Kermode.
I sense to some extent he has hit it big with the character, but actually he is a little trapped, where everybody expects sweary drunk bloke ranting about the wokey Marvel slopfest, but he is of course an author and wannabe film maker and I think wants to do more of that.
The problem is with the names.
The Conservative Party, which has historically run on a platform of controlling immigration, completely shit the bed with the Boriswave. In the last year, we've had more net immigration from outside the EU than we have had from the EU in the last decade*. That's the scale of the Conservative failure.
They then elected a charisma free undergraduate as Leader.
* Of course, this is helped by the fact we've had negative EU migration for the last few years
(At this stage I'd normally ask what the Tories were doing in the decade ostensibly spent preparing for government but now we've seen Labour.)
I imagine his take will be it was very frustrating. I wanted to do things, I gave speeches and things never seemed to happen. I was hard working and did all my reading, but I couldn't make the ship turn. I didn't really enjoy it and the country needed a change, so I decided to step down early.
Last month it borrowed an additional £20 billion, over £2 billion more than expectations.
The sense that policy, tax, spend, borrow and debt are not really under control is quite strong. Nor are the long term expectations great. 30 year gilts are about 5.5%.
We used to have two Greggs before lockdown but now only one - they used to have the sandwiches and rolls out in full display in a frdige unit but suffered a lot of losses and on Police advice, withdrew them to one much nearer the counter. The local Tesco, Sainsbury and Lidl all have security on the doors and the gate alarms which go off if a non-scanned barcode item tries to cross. Greggs never had that.
My personal irritation is fare evasion which is ironic since, as I'm over 60, I don't pay to use public transport. The evaders are, and let's not call a spade a garden implement, mostly young men of all creeds and colours, who think they can outrun any attmept to stop them and can push through the barriers.
Sometimes, whole groups push through - I saw an article claiming 15% (that number comes up a lot) of all Transport for London journeys are made fraudulently (I've no way of knowing if that has any kind of truth but TfL would know). Clearly, TfL have decided the cost of trying to reduce the number of fraudulent journeys doesn't justify the return in terms of the additional income so they "accept" those who travel free fraudulently.
There are undoubtedly some who evade because they are desperately short of money and it costs a lot to travel across London in rush hours and I've a little sympathy but many of the younger men I see pushing through the barriers are holding top-of-the-line phones or wearing expensive clothes so can afford it. They simple choose not to. Every time the revenue inspectors come to East Ham they reap a fine harvest of non-payers (another is young people pretending to be underage).
I'm still looking for a political party who will take fare evasion seriously - Boris never did and Sadiq doesn't. Armed British Transport Police at every station, manadatory ten year sentences and/or deportation for any evasion, come on, Reform supporters, you know you want to...
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5310726-democrat-sam-sutton-wins-new-york-seat/
Government borrowing rose to £20.2 billion last month – £1 billion higher than in April last year. Analysts predicted £17.6 billion this time round. Substantially higher…
Central government departmental spending jumped by £4.2 billion on last year thanks primarily to pay increases and inflation of costs.
A trip to Wembley awaits, against Oldham. Who, on form, ought to be favourites, but there again, so were the other two teams Southend played to get where they are!
Feel like I’ve just seen a politician I dislike win a massive majority on 9.7m votes
https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/April-PSF-commentary.pdf
Plus Liverpool have won more European Cups/Champions League than Arsenal, City, Villa, Tottenham, Newcastle, Everton, West Ham, and Manchester United combined.
Is my wife a Buddhist settler? (Clearly a settler in the area of romantic attachments but I'm guessing that's not what you're talking about).
I have always rated her. Never confuse lack of formal education with lack of intelligence or lack of political skill.
It's a wild ride with Leicester City, but that is an amazing range of different contests.
..After watching the whole course of the accident, Kim said, "It was a serious accident and criminal act caused by absolute carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism which is out of the bounds of possibility and could not be tolerated," according to the KCNA...,/I>
Perhaps the WFA should be conditional on private spending by OAP households rising by at least 10%. Sort of BOGOF offer. Send in the receipts and you get your fuel payment.
"There has also been an increase in emigration over the 12 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased."
If this is significant, rather than just a normal process of debate within Cabinet Governmemt, then they do have a problem.
Oh, and while we aren't on the subject, how at PMQs did Kemi contrive to allude to the tax memo but not ask Starmer directly? We seem to have a whole generation of politicians, on all sides of the House, who know damn all about politics.
On the subject of PMQs, it was the same old story. Oral slips from Starmer. Kemi asking the wrong questions badly. Starmer not answering by batting away some peripheral matter Kemi raised in her meandering build-up. Kemi not noticing Starmer's WFA concession until halfway through, when presumably someone whispered in her ear.
Summer sport now; Test against Zimbabwe starts today, Ireland beat the Windies yesterday and England Women beat their Windies opposite numbers too.
Interestingly the number of EU NHS workers also increased after leaving the EU:
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7783/CBP-7783.pdf
Similarly with care workers, greater demand for services required greater need for immigrant workers. And given the low wages paid in the sector immigrant workers from the third world.
The area where the last government was most at fault over was the number of dependents of immigrant workers, especially dependents of low paid workers.
Services in particular which is crucial to GDP came in at 50.2 up from 48.5.
Manufacturing though still struggling .
I'm pro migration, but we need dramatically more houses constructed than migrants to start to solve our chronic housing shortage.
That looks to me like an interim positive and a defensible position, that needs continuation of the same trend for longer. That is similar to be significant from a change-of-direction angle, but still not as large an impact on the total as Keir Starmer needs to win the narrative battle, as we see in NHS Waiting List reductions.
I wonder what the full number for 25Q3 to 26Q2 will be when we get it?