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Today’s must watch and some important stats – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,447
edited May 2 in General
Today’s must watch and some important stats – politicalbetting.com

I am still digesting today’s results but it is clear the old political duopoly is over, from a betting perspective the next general election might be the one where UNS falls apart completely.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2
    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,817
    edited May 2
    Second like Labour
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588
    Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

    Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,430
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2
    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.
    They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,231
    You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,441
    CatMan said:

    You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

    The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    I’m going to take those words I wrote, saying that on here, print them off (on soft paper) and put them on a plate and add some ketchup and some Worcester sauce and eat them.

    I’m going to eat my words !
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.
    They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.
    He’s both their greatest strength and weakness.

    He’s Roy Keane.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    Cicero said:

    CatMan said:

    You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

    The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago
    I was most disappointed with the unknown stuntmans appearance this morning on the BBC....just standing there giving out ice creams....I want to see him 50ft up o a tightrope with no safety harshness juggling flaming torches while doing his interview.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

    Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

    You kidding.

    It’s nice to have a day without incessant blethering and obsessing, from U.K. based posters, about Donald Ruddy Trump.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    Taz said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.
    They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.
    He’s both their greatest strength and weakness.

    He’s Roy Keane.
    Roy Keane the manager years...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,359
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

    Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

    Fast food, megalomania, conspiracy theories, and that's before he switches at the end to Trump.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cicero said:

    CatMan said:

    You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

    The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago
    I was most disappointed with the unknown stuntmans appearance this morning.
    Do you think he’s the unknown stuntman who made Eastwood such a star ?

    He was certainly the fall guy for the useless coalition.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,430
    Taz said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    I’m going to take those words I wrote, saying that on here, print them off (on soft paper) and put them on a plate and add some ketchup and some Worcester sauce and eat them.

    I’m going to eat my words !
    Yes it turns out on PB the Conservatives didn't do too badly after all.

    I'm comfortable with that if it keeps Jenrick in his kennel.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,998
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "John Redwood
    @johnredwood

    The PM promises to go faster with change. The problem is his changes bring higher taxes, higher energy prices, more migrants, more small boats, cuts in benefits for pensioners and the disabled. These are not the changes most people want."

    https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1918278001176780879

    They need to drop the Change thing. It was deliberately designed as the slogan for the Ming Vase election because it was nebulous and didn’t mean much. Now they’re in government he keeps waffling on about his Plan For Change but he’s never taken the time to really set out what he wants.

    Stop trying to make Change happen, Keir.
    I agree. Sick of hearing about change as if it's by definition a good thing.

    Talk about specifics.
    I want incremental improvement.
    What do we want... revolution incremental improvement...when do we want it... now over the next 5-10 years.
    No, I want it all the time.
    Starting tomorrow if possible, and forever.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,705
    FPT:
    Taz said:



    The Tories are fucked. That may work to pull back losses on the right but they then lose more to the Lib Dem’s in middle England.

    They’re being squeezed on the right by Reform and centre by Lib Dem’s.

    Serves the motherfuckers right. They’re a complete shambles,and elected an ideas vacuum as leader and left the country in an utter mess.

    It’s an existential problem for them. I suspect they are going the way of the liberals after WW1.

    They apparently picked a shopping trolley and a vacuum. We need an image for the Rishi interregnum.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,650
    “Exciting time for punters”. Especially informed punters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974
    edited May 2
    Cicero said:

    CatMan said:

    You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

    The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago
    "European" is a useful dog-whistle for the Lib Dems, alongside Davey's targetting of "headphone dodgers".
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,359
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.
    They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.
    Big Nige is the Harry Maguire of politics. Played a blinder last night after being written off as past it.

  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,346
    Mexicanpete said:

    Taz said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    I’m going to take those words I wrote, saying that on here, print them off (on soft paper) and put them on a plate and add some ketchup and some Worcester sauce and eat them.

    I’m going to eat my words !
    Yes it turns out on PB the Conservatives didn't do too badly after all.

    I'm comfortable with that if it keeps Jenrick in his kennel.
    The Tories expectations management was that they would lose 700 seats and they've avoided that.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    Final edit to Emergency Podcast. We are launching in about 10 minutes!

    Will post here as an exclusive...

    A political career begins / ends...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,817
    williamglenn said:

    Cicero said:

    CatMan said:

    You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

    The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago
    "European" is a useful dog-whistle for the Lib Dems, alongside Davey's targetting of "headphone dodgers".
    Headphone dodgers should be exiled to Rwanda Gaza Lincolnshire.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Final edit to Emergency Podcast. We are launching in about 10 minutes!

    Will post here as an exclusive...

    A political career begins / ends...

    You're supposed to edit out the career-ending gaffe first!
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    edited May 2
    Mexicanpete said:

    Taz said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    I’m going to take those words I wrote, saying that on here, print them off (on soft paper) and put them on a plate and add some ketchup and some Worcester sauce and eat them.

    I’m going to eat my words !
    Yes it turns out on PB the Conservatives didn't do too badly after all.

    I'm comfortable with that if it keeps Jenrick in his kennel.
    I’m referring to the fact I said labour did okay. I was wrong

    I’d said, to quote the sadly MIA (not the shit rapper) Heathener, the Tories had had a shellacking.

    Also not saying MIA raps about faeces, just she’s not very good, but she married a billionaire. Cool beans.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    edited May 2
    Ironically the Tories best bet to stay an independent party may now be PR if Reform has clearly overtaken them for good. Even the 15% they got today would elect 100 Tory MPs, whereas it would see the Tories down to just 10-15 MPs under FPTP and near wiped out and almost certainly forced to merge into Reform.

    Farage by contrast, having previously favoured PR, would find the 30% his party got today would give Reform a comfortable majority of MPs with FPTP but most likely today's voteshares would see a Labour and LD and Green government with PR
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.
    Exactly what happened in Canada in 2003
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    williamglenn said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Final edit to Emergency Podcast. We are launching in about 10 minutes!

    Will post here as an exclusive...

    A political career begins / ends...

    You're supposed to edit out the career-ending gaffe first!
    Oh you're no fun any more
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,998
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

    Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

    Yep, I've had bad vibes about him for a while, along those lines.
    It's not his politics - the Dems need their right wing as much as their left. But there's other stuff going on there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Final edit to Emergency Podcast. We are launching in about 10 minutes!

    Will post here as an exclusive...

    A political career begins / ends...

    Sounds like what my friends and colleagues say about me.

    'You're commendably/recklessly honest.'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    Kemi gets her excuses out writing in the Torygraph....

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/02/kemi-badenoch-i-am-sorry-for-election-bloodbath/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,430
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.
    Exactly what happened in Canada in 2003
    So long as you keep the Conservative name and keep on winning that's fine even if the policies are fash.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.
    They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.
    Big Nige is the Harry Maguire of politics. Played a blinder last night after being written off as past it.

    I’ve used my daily picture otherwise I’d use the standard one of him chatting to a bird in the stands.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2
    Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

    Wonder where he got that idea......

    .Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,949
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

    Wonder where he got that idea......

    .Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

    VD Day? Um.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,346
    West Northamptonshire is the last to be sorted, Reform need 11 of the last 18 seats to get a majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,998
    edited May 2
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

    The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

    But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.
    They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.
    There will be plenty who will be willing if it means they might keep their seats.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,423
    If my big sums are correct and west Northamptonshire is the only council remaining, it is impossible for CON to overtake LD. If true, the Conservatives have come third and the Libs in second place in terms of councillors.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/councils/E06000062
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    HYUFD said:

    Ironically the Tories best bet to stay an independent party may now be PR if Reform has clearly overtaken them for good. Even the 15% they got today would elect 100 Tory MPs, whereas it would see the Tories down to just 10-15 MPs under FPTP and near wiped out and almost certainly forced to merge into Reform.

    Farage by contrast, having previously favoured PR, would find the 30% his party got today would give Reform a comfortable majority of MPs with FPTP but most likely today's voteshares would see a Labour and LD and Green government with PR

    The National seat projections based on UNS from these local election results are overlooking that the LibDem success is concentrated in the south and west whereas Reform did best in the East. Spreading both parties’ votes evenly across the country understates the seats they might win, especially for the LDs who are batting from the lower share.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    Casino_Royale said:

    I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good

    Haven't they stopped the use of that now, copyright holders cracked down or something.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,998
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

    Wonder where he got that idea......

    .Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

    May 9th for them, but yes.
    Senile old duffer seems not to know about the whole war in the Pacific thing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,817
    Casino_Royale said:

    I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good

    General 1:"Mein Fuehrer. Starmer..."

    General 2: "Starmer didn't have enough Councillors. The attack never took place."
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,773
    viewcode said:

    If my big sums are correct and west Northamptonshire is the only council remaining, it is impossible for CON to overtake LD. If true, the Conservatives have come third and the Libs in second place in terms of councillors.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/councils/E06000062

    Yup. Only 15 seats left to report.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

    Wonder where he got that idea......

    .Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

    May 9th for them, but yes.
    Senile old duffer seems not to know about the whole war in the Pacific thing.
    Plenty in Trump's administration seem to think the attack on Pearl Harbour happened in June 1942 as they repeatedly seem to get confused with the greatest ambush in history that was the Battle of Midway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,998
    How soon is Kemi toast ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,998
    edited May 2
    That is a pretty good intro to the Atlantic article.

    "This is the proper way to begin a story."
    https://x.com/nxthompson/status/1918268036949193149
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
    They should give her the dignity of breaking IDS's record for standing ovations during the conference speech.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,359
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

    Wonder where he got that idea......

    .Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

    Trump's forgotten America was still fighting Japan until August.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,346
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

    Wonder where he got that idea......

    .Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

    Trump's forgotten America was still fighting Japan until August.
    He probably doesn't like the fact we were allied with China.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,423
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

    Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

    Interesting and somewhat saddening read, thank you

  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,346
    DM_Andy said:

    West Northamptonshire is the last to be sorted, Reform need 11 of the last 18 seats to get a majority.

    Reform nearly there, only 6 from 12 needed now.

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,949
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    Giving you a watch/listen just now.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,359
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    Poor choice of name since everyone else uses emergency podcast to mean emergency podcast, which is doubtless what gave you the idea.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    Small point....Might have been useful to start with a quick intro of who you guys are / background.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,705
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    Good luck! A very pleasant change from what YT normally recommends to me which involves arming my 'compound'. Which - according to a digital marketing friend - is because I watched videos about home made pickles and preserves.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,799
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good

    General 1:"Mein Fuehrer. Starmer..."

    General 2: "Starmer didn't have enough Councillors. The attack never took place."
    A socialist I know insists on refering to him as Der Starmer.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,495
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

    Wonder where he got that idea......

    .Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

    Trump's forgotten America was still fighting Japan until August.
    Only fair, his supporters have forgotten the fascists were the enemy too.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "John Redwood
    @johnredwood

    The PM promises to go faster with change. The problem is his changes bring higher taxes, higher energy prices, more migrants, more small boats, cuts in benefits for pensioners and the disabled. These are not the changes most people want."

    https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1918278001176780879

    They need to drop the Change thing. It was deliberately designed as the slogan for the Ming Vase election because it was nebulous and didn’t mean much. Now they’re in government he keeps waffling on about his Plan For Change but he’s never taken the time to really set out what he wants.

    Stop trying to make Change happen, Keir.
    I agree. Sick of hearing about change as if it's by definition a good thing.

    Talk about specifics.
    I want incremental improvement.
    What do we want... revolution incremental improvement...when do we want it... now over the next 5-10 years.
    The one I learnt at a party conference was...

    What do we want?
    Gradual change!
    When do we want it?
    In due course!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    Small point....Might have been useful to start with a quick intro of who you guys are / background.
    It is episode 3
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,423
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    Poor choice of name since everyone else uses emergency podcast to mean emergency podcast, which is doubtless what gave you the idea.
    When I have a YouTube channel it will be called That Thing On YouTube With Viewcode. Stitch that Mr Beast! 😀
  • isamisam Posts: 41,394

    This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

    In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

    Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good

    Haven't they stopped the use of that now, copyright holders cracked down or something.
    They got an exemption.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,705
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

    Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

    At first glance I read that as John Finnemore and had a confused moment.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,800
    Beautifully symmetrical now: Reform up 662, Conservatives down 662.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,346
    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    West Northamptonshire is the last to be sorted, Reform need 11 of the last 18 seats to get a majority.

    Reform nearly there, only 6 from 12 needed now.
    Nene Valley returns 3 Reform so 3 needed from 9 for a majority.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,495
    What a depressing set of election results.

    Lancashire is particularly depressing, Reform taking control and 2nd place seems to be Gaza Independents.

    Urgh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,612
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
    If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

    Lloyd George without the ability.

    Or the sex (well, so far as we know).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,567
    isam said:


    This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

    In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

    Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
    If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

    Lloyd George without the ability.

    Or the sex (well, so far as we know).
    Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

    Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,612
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
    If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

    Lloyd George without the ability.

    Or the sex (well, so far as we know).
    Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

    Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.
    So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Kemi gets her excuses out writing in the Torygraph....

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/02/kemi-badenoch-i-am-sorry-for-election-bloodbath/

    I have a modicum of sympathy for her. Voters were rejecting what happened under Johnson and Sunak much more than they were rejecting Badenoch.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:


    This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

    In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

    Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.
    I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,346
    edited May 2
    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    West Northamptonshire is the last to be sorted, Reform need 11 of the last 18 seats to get a majority.

    Reform nearly there, only 6 from 12 needed now.
    Nene Valley returns 3 Reform so 3 needed from 9 for a majority.
    Reform GAIN West Northamptonshire. 39 seats out of 70 with 6 undeclared.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    edited May 2
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
    If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

    Lloyd George without the ability.

    Or the sex (well, so far as we know).
    Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

    Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.
    So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?
    It produced Lord Palmerston and one of the greatest humans ever, William WIlberforce.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    What a depressing set of election results.

    Lancashire is particularly depressing, Reform taking control and 2nd place seems to be Gaza Independents.

    Urgh.

    Not depressing in the slightest.

    This is democracy manifest

    Main parties up their game.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,423
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
    If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

    Lloyd George without the ability.

    Or the sex (well, so far as we know).
    Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

    Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.
    I am pleased to believe the "fact" part, but the "fun" bit honestly escapes me 😀
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    That name is not good for searching on YouTube, but I found it and gave it its first Like.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 970
    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

    Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

    You kidding.

    It’s nice to have a day without incessant blethering and obsessing, from U.K. based posters, about Donald Ruddy Trump.
    Unfortunately Donald Trump, and his destruction of the world economy, has far greater consequences for most UK citizens who/whose neighbours haven't just elected a Reform council to mismanage their local authority. If only it didn't and we could all worry about the inhabitants of the NE / Kent whose kids won't have libraries, SEN provision etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,612
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
    If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

    Lloyd George without the ability.

    Or the sex (well, so far as we know).
    Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

    Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.
    So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?
    It produced Lord Palmerston and one of the greatest humans ever, William WIlberforce.
    Palmerston's main education was at Edinburgh.

    Wilberforce, ironically, spent much of his time at Cambridge boozing and gambling.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,394
    edited May 2
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:


    This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

    In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

    Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.
    I think a lot of Reform inclined voters think helping Ukraine should be done with the money left over once the UK is fit for purpose. I doubt many think in terms of geo politics at all, and wouldn’t know anything about Ukraine, other than they’re at war with Russia
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,705
    viewcode said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    Poor choice of name since everyone else uses emergency podcast to mean emergency podcast, which is doubtless what gave you the idea.
    When I have a YouTube channel it will be called That Thing On YouTube With Viewcode. Stitch that Mr Beast! 😀
    I used to think about making a tech/developer focussed podcast titled "Why is everything so awful?"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093
    Picnic in Regents Park ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Left wing friend, very bright, kinda Blairite. Two kids, made his own fortune, massive engineer geek

    We got on to politics and I admitted I'm now Reform and he pretended to do a little rant but we both knew his heart wasn't in it. He then went on a ten minute rant of his own, about the utter nediocrity of Starmer (with tones of genuinely bitter disappointment). He then said "fuck it, maybe Farage will be better, or maybe he will be Trump. I don't care any more, maybe it's worth the risk

    He then became eloquently sad and angry about the school in South London opposite his house where he sees little girls in niqabs - aged 12 or so

    This is the pond in which Reform is flourishing. A mixture of contempt for our present big parties, despair at their stupidity, a sense of "roll the dice" and a genuine disquiet about cultural changes
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,567
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:


    This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

    In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

    Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.
    I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.
    Who knows what the world will look like by July 2029.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 588
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
    If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

    Lloyd George without the ability.

    Or the sex (well, so far as we know).
    Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

    Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.
    So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?
    It produced Lord Palmerston and one of the greatest humans ever, William WIlberforce.
    Palmerston's main education was at Edinburgh.

    Wilberforce, ironically, spent much of his time at Cambridge boozing and gambling.
    If you're not a rower or a medic that's what you are meant to do.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,001
    SEN provision may be an interesting flashpoint.
    Meanwhile.
    Zhao Xintong knocks Ronnie out with a session to spare.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,705
    Leon said:

    Picnic in Regents Park ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Left wing friend, very bright, kinda Blairite. Two kids, made his own fortune, massive engineer geek

    We got on to politics and I admitted I'm now Reform and he pretended to do a little rant but we both knew his heart wasn't in it. He then went on a ten minute rant of his own, about the utter nediocrity of Starmer (with tones of genuinely bitter disappointment). He then said "fuck it, maybe Farage will be better, or maybe he will be Trump. I don't care any more, maybe it's worth the risk

    He then became eloquently sad and angry about the school in South London opposite his house where he sees little girls in niqabs - aged 12 or so

    This is the pond in which Reform is flourishing. A mixture of contempt for our present big parties, despair at their stupidity, a sense of "roll the dice" and a genuine disquiet about cultural changes

    I don't think Keir is exciting enough to be called a ned. I think he'd struggle with the accent too.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,772
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:


    This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

    In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

    Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.
    I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.
    You need to brush up on your north east geography!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:


    This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

    In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

    Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.
    I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.
    Who knows what the world will look like by July 2029.
    It's interesting to remember how Jeremy Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after he took Russia's side after the Salisbury poisonings
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,231
    edited May 2
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    How soon is Kemi toast ?

    Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.
    If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

    Lloyd George without the ability.

    Or the sex (well, so far as we know).
    Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

    Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.
    So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?
    It produced Lord Palmerston and one of the greatest humans ever, William WIlberforce.
    Palmerston's main education was at Edinburgh.

    Wilberforce, ironically, spent much of his time at Cambridge boozing and gambling.
    Everybody knows Pitt the Elder was a better Prime Minister than Lord Palmerston

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoDKh1EAZjI
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:


    This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

    In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

    Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.
    I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.
    You need to brush up on your north east geography!
    You're all Geordies up there.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,432
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:


    This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

    In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

    Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

    https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.
    I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.

    They should be so lucky. Their responsibilities are

    1 Social care
    2 Anything else they can't wriggle out of
    3 Erm...
    4 That's about it.

    Some new councillors will rise to the challenge, I'm sure. But the promises made and implied are awfully big, and it's going to be a challenge to deliver them.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    bondegezou said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    That name is not good for searching on YouTube, but I found it and gave it its first Like.
    Its brand new - literally. I'm tagging each video and borrowing a few tags. It will get out there. We just thought "Emergency Podcast" was kind of appropriate as so many serious pods have to do Emergency Podcasts...
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,705
    bondegezou said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

    https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

    That name is not good for searching on YouTube, but I found it and gave it its first Like.
    It has a few likes - the YT user-interface just doesn't show them. On YT - I discovered recently that if you back out of a video within three seconds then YT severely marks it down. So if you ever really dislike a video or channel...

    (Not Rochdale's! Like and subscribe!)
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