Today’s must watch and some important stats – politicalbetting.com

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Today’s must watch and some important stats – politicalbetting.com

I am still digesting today’s results but it is clear the old political duopoly is over, from a betting perspective the next general election might be the one where UNS falls apart completely.

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

Sunil_Prasannan

Second like Labour

FrancisUrquhart

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:

Andy_JS said:

"John Redwood
@johnredwood

The PM promises to go faster with change. The problem is his changes bring higher taxes, higher energy prices, more migrants, more small boats, cuts in benefits for pensioners and the disabled. These are not the changes most people want."

https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1918278001176780879

They need to drop the Change thing. It was deliberately designed as the slogan for the Ming Vase election because it was nebulous and didn’t mean much. Now they’re in government he keeps waffling on about his Plan For Change but he’s never taken the time to really set out what he wants.

Stop trying to make Change happen, Keir.

I agree. Sick of hearing about change as if it's by definition a good thing.

Talk about specifics.

I want incremental improvement.

What do we want... revolution incremental improvement...when do we want it... now over the next 5-10 years.

rcs1000

Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

Mexicanpete

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.

FrancisUrquhart

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.

They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.

CatMan

You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

Cicero

CatMan said:

You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago

Taz

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

I’m going to take those words I wrote, saying that on here, print them off (on soft paper) and put them on a plate and add some ketchup and some Worcester sauce and eat them.

I’m going to eat my words !

Taz

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.

They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.

He’s both their greatest strength and weakness.

He’s Roy Keane.

FrancisUrquhart

Cicero said:

CatMan said:

You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago

I was most disappointed with the unknown stuntmans appearance this morning on the BBC....just standing there giving out ice creams....I want to see him 50ft up o a tightrope with no safety harshness juggling flaming torches while doing his interview.

Taz

rcs1000 said:

Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

You kidding.

It’s nice to have a day without incessant blethering and obsessing, from U.K. based posters, about Donald Ruddy Trump.

FrancisUrquhart

Taz said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.

They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.

He’s both their greatest strength and weakness.

He’s Roy Keane.

Roy Keane the manager years...

DecrepiterJohnL

rcs1000 said:

Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

Fast food, megalomania, conspiracy theories, and that's before he switches at the end to Trump.

Taz

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cicero said:

CatMan said:

You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago

I was most disappointed with the unknown stuntmans appearance this morning.

Do you think he’s the unknown stuntman who made Eastwood such a star ?

He was certainly the fall guy for the useless coalition.

Mexicanpete

Taz said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

I’m going to take those words I wrote, saying that on here, print them off (on soft paper) and put them on a plate and add some ketchup and some Worcester sauce and eat them.

I’m going to eat my words !

Yes it turns out on PB the Conservatives didn't do too badly after all.

I'm comfortable with that if it keeps Jenrick in his kennel.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:

Andy_JS said:

"John Redwood
@johnredwood

The PM promises to go faster with change. The problem is his changes bring higher taxes, higher energy prices, more migrants, more small boats, cuts in benefits for pensioners and the disabled. These are not the changes most people want."

https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1918278001176780879

They need to drop the Change thing. It was deliberately designed as the slogan for the Ming Vase election because it was nebulous and didn’t mean much. Now they’re in government he keeps waffling on about his Plan For Change but he’s never taken the time to really set out what he wants.

Stop trying to make Change happen, Keir.

I agree. Sick of hearing about change as if it's by definition a good thing.

Talk about specifics.

I want incremental improvement.

What do we want... revolution incremental improvement...when do we want it... now over the next 5-10 years.

No, I want it all the time.
Starting tomorrow if possible, and forever.

ohnotnow

FPT:

Taz said:

The Tories are fucked. That may work to pull back losses on the right but they then lose more to the Lib Dem’s in middle England.

They’re being squeezed on the right by Reform and centre by Lib Dem’s.

Serves the motherfuckers right. They’re a complete shambles,and elected an ideas vacuum as leader and left the country in an utter mess.

It’s an existential problem for them. I suspect they are going the way of the liberals after WW1.

They apparently picked a shopping trolley and a vacuum. We need an image for the Rishi interregnum.

Fairliered

“Exciting time for punters”. Especially informed punters.

williamglenn

Cicero said:

CatMan said:

You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago

"European" is a useful dog-whistle for the Lib Dems, alongside Davey's targetting of "headphone dodgers".

DecrepiterJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.

They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.

Big Nige is the Harry Maguire of politics. Played a blinder last night after being written off as past it.

DM_Andy

Mexicanpete said:

Taz said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

I’m going to take those words I wrote, saying that on here, print them off (on soft paper) and put them on a plate and add some ketchup and some Worcester sauce and eat them.

I’m going to eat my words !

Yes it turns out on PB the Conservatives didn't do too badly after all.

I'm comfortable with that if it keeps Jenrick in his kennel.

The Tories expectations management was that they would lose 700 seats and they've avoided that.

RochdalePioneers

Final edit to Emergency Podcast. We are launching in about 10 minutes!

Will post here as an exclusive...

A political career begins / ends...

Sunil_Prasannan

williamglenn said:

Cicero said:

CatMan said:

You can't criticise Farage & Reform for being pro Brexit and Trump if you aren't going to criticise Brexit and Trump.

The lesson Ed Davey drew several weeks ago

"European" is a useful dog-whistle for the Lib Dems, alongside Davey's targetting of "headphone dodgers".

Headphone dodgers should be exiled to Rwanda Gaza Lincolnshire.

williamglenn

RochdalePioneers said:

Final edit to Emergency Podcast. We are launching in about 10 minutes!

Will post here as an exclusive...

A political career begins / ends...

You're supposed to edit out the career-ending gaffe first!

Taz

Mexicanpete said:

Taz said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

I’m going to take those words I wrote, saying that on here, print them off (on soft paper) and put them on a plate and add some ketchup and some Worcester sauce and eat them.

I’m going to eat my words !

Yes it turns out on PB the Conservatives didn't do too badly after all.

I'm comfortable with that if it keeps Jenrick in his kennel.

I’m referring to the fact I said labour did okay. I was wrong

I’d said, to quote the sadly MIA (not the shit rapper) Heathener, the Tories had had a shellacking.

Also not saying MIA raps about faeces, just she’s not very good, but she married a billionaire. Cool beans.

TheScreamingEagles

Fairliered said:

“Exciting time for punters”. Especially informed punters.

Indeed, informed punters are the ones who tip a 14/1 winner two days before the election.

#LegendaryModestyKlaxon

HYUFD

Ironically the Tories best bet to stay an independent party may now be PR if Reform has clearly overtaken them for good. Even the 15% they got today would elect 100 Tory MPs, whereas it would see the Tories down to just 10-15 MPs under FPTP and near wiped out and almost certainly forced to merge into Reform.

Farage by contrast, having previously favoured PR, would find the 30% his party got today would give Reform a comfortable majority of MPs with FPTP but most likely today's voteshares would see a Labour and LD and Green government with PR

HYUFD

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.

Exactly what happened in Canada in 2003

RochdalePioneers

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Final edit to Emergency Podcast. We are launching in about 10 minutes!

Will post here as an exclusive...

A political career begins / ends...

You're supposed to edit out the career-ending gaffe first!

Oh you're no fun any more

Nigelb

rcs1000 said:

Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

Yep, I've had bad vibes about him for a while, along those lines.
It's not his politics - the Dems need their right wing as much as their left. But there's other stuff going on there.

TheScreamingEagles

RochdalePioneers said:

Final edit to Emergency Podcast. We are launching in about 10 minutes!

Will post here as an exclusive...

A political career begins / ends...

Sounds like what my friends and colleagues say about me.

'You're commendably/recklessly honest.'

FrancisUrquhart

Kemi gets her excuses out writing in the Torygraph....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/02/kemi-badenoch-i-am-sorry-for-election-bloodbath/

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.

Exactly what happened in Canada in 2003

So long as you keep the Conservative name and keep on winning that's fine even if the policies are fash.

Taz

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.

They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.

Big Nige is the Harry Maguire of politics. Played a blinder last night after being written off as past it.

I’ve used my daily picture otherwise I’d use the standard one of him chatting to a bird in the stands.

FrancisUrquhart

Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

Wonder where he got that idea......

.Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

Casino_Royale

I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good

solarflare

FrancisUrquhart said:

Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

Wonder where he got that idea......

.Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

VD Day? Um.

DM_Andy

West Northamptonshire is the last to be sorted, Reform need 11 of the last 18 seats to get a majority.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Now about those saying last night that Labour hadn't done so badly....and the Tories have done even worse.

The big problem the Tories, their brand is shot, while they aren't in power to change anything and massive lack of talent.

But the Tories can simply absorb themselves into Reform and at a later date change their name to Conservative. Back to winning ways before you know it.

They would have to kiss the ring of Nige...and of course we know he is such a great team player who loves to play nice / share with others. I think the team spirit would be about as good as Man United these days.

There will be plenty who will be willing if it means they might keep their seats.

viewcode

If my big sums are correct and west Northamptonshire is the only council remaining, it is impossible for CON to overtake LD. If true, the Conservatives have come third and the Libs in second place in terms of councillors.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/councils/E06000062

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Ironically the Tories best bet to stay an independent party may now be PR if Reform has clearly overtaken them for good. Even the 15% they got today would elect 100 Tory MPs, whereas it would see the Tories down to just 10-15 MPs under FPTP and near wiped out and almost certainly forced to merge into Reform.

Farage by contrast, having previously favoured PR, would find the 30% his party got today would give Reform a comfortable majority of MPs with FPTP but most likely today's voteshares would see a Labour and LD and Green government with PR

The National seat projections based on UNS from these local election results are overlooking that the LibDem success is concentrated in the south and west whereas Reform did best in the East. Spreading both parties’ votes evenly across the country understates the seats they might win, especially for the LDs who are batting from the lower share.

FrancisUrquhart

Casino_Royale said:

I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good

Haven't they stopped the use of that now, copyright holders cracked down or something.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

Wonder where he got that idea......

.Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

May 9th for them, but yes.
Senile old duffer seems not to know about the whole war in the Pacific thing.

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good

General 1:"Mein Fuehrer. Starmer..."

General 2: "Starmer didn't have enough Councillors. The attack never took place."

mwadams

viewcode said:

If my big sums are correct and west Northamptonshire is the only council remaining, it is impossible for CON to overtake LD. If true, the Conservatives have come third and the Libs in second place in terms of councillors.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/councils/E06000062

Yup. Only 15 seats left to report.

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

Wonder where he got that idea......

.Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

May 9th for them, but yes.
Senile old duffer seems not to know about the whole war in the Pacific thing.

Plenty in Trump's administration seem to think the attack on Pearl Harbour happened in June 1942 as they repeatedly seem to get confused with the greatest ambush in history that was the Battle of Midway.

Nigelb

How soon is Kemi toast ?

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

Nigelb

That is a pretty good intro to the Atlantic article.

"This is the proper way to begin a story."
https://x.com/nxthompson/status/1918268036949193149

RochdalePioneers

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

They should give her the dignity of breaking IDS's record for standing ovations during the conference speech.

DecrepiterJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

Wonder where he got that idea......

.Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

Trump's forgotten America was still fighting Japan until August.

DM_Andy

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

Wonder where he got that idea......

.Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

Trump's forgotten America was still fighting Japan until August.

He probably doesn't like the fact we were allied with China.

viewcode

rcs1000 said:

Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

Interesting and somewhat saddening read, thank you

DM_Andy

DM_Andy said:

West Northamptonshire is the last to be sorted, Reform need 11 of the last 18 seats to get a majority.

Reform nearly there, only 6 from 12 needed now.

solarflare

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

Giving you a watch/listen just now.

DecrepiterJohnL

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

Poor choice of name since everyone else uses emergency podcast to mean emergency podcast, which is doubtless what gave you the idea.

FrancisUrquhart

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

Small point....Might have been useful to start with a quick intro of who you guys are / background.

ohnotnow

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

Good luck! A very pleasant change from what YT normally recommends to me which involves arming my 'compound'. Which - according to a digital marketing friend - is because I watched videos about home made pickles and preserves.

carnforth

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good

General 1:"Mein Fuehrer. Starmer..."

General 2: "Starmer didn't have enough Councillors. The attack never took place."

A socialist I know insists on refering to him as Der Starmer.

BartholomewRoberts

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Donald Trump has announced that the US is to strip mention of Europe out of its annual celebration of victory in the Second World War. The president said that the May 8 Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) will become “Victory Day for World War Two”.

Wonder where he got that idea......

.Russia also uses Victory Day to celebrate the end of the war.

Trump's forgotten America was still fighting Japan until August.

Only fair, his supporters have forgotten the fascists were the enemy too.

bondegezou

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:

Andy_JS said:

"John Redwood
@johnredwood

The PM promises to go faster with change. The problem is his changes bring higher taxes, higher energy prices, more migrants, more small boats, cuts in benefits for pensioners and the disabled. These are not the changes most people want."

https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1918278001176780879

They need to drop the Change thing. It was deliberately designed as the slogan for the Ming Vase election because it was nebulous and didn’t mean much. Now they’re in government he keeps waffling on about his Plan For Change but he’s never taken the time to really set out what he wants.

Stop trying to make Change happen, Keir.

I agree. Sick of hearing about change as if it's by definition a good thing.

Talk about specifics.

I want incremental improvement.

What do we want... revolution incremental improvement...when do we want it... now over the next 5-10 years.

The one I learnt at a party conference was...

What do we want?
Gradual change!
When do we want it?
In due course!

RochdalePioneers

FrancisUrquhart said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

Small point....Might have been useful to start with a quick intro of who you guys are / background.

It is episode 3

viewcode

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

Poor choice of name since everyone else uses emergency podcast to mean emergency podcast, which is doubtless what gave you the idea.

When I have a YouTube channel it will be called That Thing On YouTube With Viewcode. Stitch that Mr Beast! 😀

isam

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Casino_Royale

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

I just hope the HitlerRantsParody is good

Haven't they stopped the use of that now, copyright holders cracked down or something.

They got an exemption.

ohnotnow

rcs1000 said:

Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

At first glance I read that as John Finnemore and had a confused moment.

Northern_Al

Beautifully symmetrical now: Reform up 662, Conservatives down 662.

DM_Andy

DM_Andy said:

DM_Andy said:

West Northamptonshire is the last to be sorted, Reform need 11 of the last 18 seats to get a majority.

Reform nearly there, only 6 from 12 needed now.

Nene Valley returns 3 Reform so 3 needed from 9 for a majority.

IanB2

bondegezou said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:

Andy_JS said:

"John Redwood
@johnredwood

The PM promises to go faster with change. The problem is his changes bring higher taxes, higher energy prices, more migrants, more small boats, cuts in benefits for pensioners and the disabled. These are not the changes most people want."

https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1918278001176780879

They need to drop the Change thing. It was deliberately designed as the slogan for the Ming Vase election because it was nebulous and didn’t mean much. Now they’re in government he keeps waffling on about his Plan For Change but he’s never taken the time to really set out what he wants.

Stop trying to make Change happen, Keir.

I agree. Sick of hearing about change as if it's by definition a good thing.

Talk about specifics.

I want incremental improvement.

What do we want... revolution incremental improvement...when do we want it... now over the next 5-10 years.

The one I learnt at a party conference was...

What do we want?
Gradual change!
When do we want it?
In due course!

The people's flag is slightly pink,
It's not as red as most folks think.
We must not let the people know
What socialists thought long ago.

Don't let the scarlet banner float.
We want the middle class’s vote.
Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer,
We'll stay in power for many a year.

BartholomewRoberts

What a depressing set of election results.

Lancashire is particularly depressing, Reform taking control and 2nd place seems to be Gaza Independents.

Urgh.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

Lloyd George without the ability.

Or the sex (well, so far as we know).

tlg86

isam said:

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

Lloyd George without the ability.

Or the sex (well, so far as we know).

Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

Lloyd George without the ability.

Or the sex (well, so far as we know).

Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.

So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?

bondegezou

FrancisUrquhart said:

Kemi gets her excuses out writing in the Torygraph....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/02/kemi-badenoch-i-am-sorry-for-election-bloodbath/

I have a modicum of sympathy for her. Voters were rejecting what happened under Johnson and Sunak much more than they were rejecting Badenoch.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

isam said:

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.

I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.

DM_Andy

DM_Andy said:

DM_Andy said:

DM_Andy said:

West Northamptonshire is the last to be sorted, Reform need 11 of the last 18 seats to get a majority.

Reform nearly there, only 6 from 12 needed now.

Nene Valley returns 3 Reform so 3 needed from 9 for a majority.

Reform GAIN West Northamptonshire. 39 seats out of 70 with 6 undeclared.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

Lloyd George without the ability.

Or the sex (well, so far as we know).

Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.

So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?

It produced Lord Palmerston and one of the greatest humans ever, William WIlberforce.

Taz

BartholomewRoberts said:

What a depressing set of election results.

Lancashire is particularly depressing, Reform taking control and 2nd place seems to be Gaza Independents.

Urgh.

Not depressing in the slightest.

This is democracy manifest

Main parties up their game.

viewcode

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

Lloyd George without the ability.

Or the sex (well, so far as we know).

Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.

I am pleased to believe the "fact" part, but the "fun" bit honestly escapes me 😀

bondegezou

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

That name is not good for searching on YouTube, but I found it and gave it its first Like.

Dopermean

Taz said:

rcs1000 said:

Completely off topic, but this piece from The Bulwark which is mostly on John Fetterman is worth reading: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162687639

Come on guys... let's leave Reform behind for a minute.

You kidding.

It’s nice to have a day without incessant blethering and obsessing, from U.K. based posters, about Donald Ruddy Trump.

Unfortunately Donald Trump, and his destruction of the world economy, has far greater consequences for most UK citizens who/whose neighbours haven't just elected a Reform council to mismanage their local authority. If only it didn't and we could all worry about the inhabitants of the NE / Kent whose kids won't have libraries, SEN provision etc.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

Lloyd George without the ability.

Or the sex (well, so far as we know).

Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.

So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?

It produced Lord Palmerston and one of the greatest humans ever, William WIlberforce.

Palmerston's main education was at Edinburgh.

Wilberforce, ironically, spent much of his time at Cambridge boozing and gambling.

isam

tlg86 said:

isam said:

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.

I think a lot of Reform inclined voters think helping Ukraine should be done with the money left over once the UK is fit for purpose. I doubt many think in terms of geo politics at all, and wouldn’t know anything about Ukraine, other than they’re at war with Russia

ohnotnow

viewcode said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

Poor choice of name since everyone else uses emergency podcast to mean emergency podcast, which is doubtless what gave you the idea.

When I have a YouTube channel it will be called That Thing On YouTube With Viewcode. Stitch that Mr Beast! 😀

I used to think about making a tech/developer focussed podcast titled "Why is everything so awful?"

Leon

Picnic in Regents Park ANECDOTE KLAXON

Left wing friend, very bright, kinda Blairite. Two kids, made his own fortune, massive engineer geek

We got on to politics and I admitted I'm now Reform and he pretended to do a little rant but we both knew his heart wasn't in it. He then went on a ten minute rant of his own, about the utter nediocrity of Starmer (with tones of genuinely bitter disappointment). He then said "fuck it, maybe Farage will be better, or maybe he will be Trump. I don't care any more, maybe it's worth the risk

He then became eloquently sad and angry about the school in South London opposite his house where he sees little girls in niqabs - aged 12 or so

This is the pond in which Reform is flourishing. A mixture of contempt for our present big parties, despair at their stupidity, a sense of "roll the dice" and a genuine disquiet about cultural changes

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

isam said:

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.

I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.

Who knows what the world will look like by July 2029.

gettingbetter

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

Lloyd George without the ability.

Or the sex (well, so far as we know).

Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.

So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?

It produced Lord Palmerston and one of the greatest humans ever, William WIlberforce.

Palmerston's main education was at Edinburgh.

Wilberforce, ironically, spent much of his time at Cambridge boozing and gambling.

If you're not a rower or a medic that's what you are meant to do.

dixiedean

SEN provision may be an interesting flashpoint.
Meanwhile.
Zhao Xintong knocks Ronnie out with a session to spare.

ohnotnow

Leon said:

Picnic in Regents Park ANECDOTE KLAXON

Left wing friend, very bright, kinda Blairite. Two kids, made his own fortune, massive engineer geek

We got on to politics and I admitted I'm now Reform and he pretended to do a little rant but we both knew his heart wasn't in it. He then went on a ten minute rant of his own, about the utter nediocrity of Starmer (with tones of genuinely bitter disappointment). He then said "fuck it, maybe Farage will be better, or maybe he will be Trump. I don't care any more, maybe it's worth the risk

He then became eloquently sad and angry about the school in South London opposite his house where he sees little girls in niqabs - aged 12 or so

This is the pond in which Reform is flourishing. A mixture of contempt for our present big parties, despair at their stupidity, a sense of "roll the dice" and a genuine disquiet about cultural changes

I don't think Keir is exciting enough to be called a ned. I think he'd struggle with the accent too.

SandyRentool

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

isam said:

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.

I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.

You need to brush up on your north east geography!

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

isam said:

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.

I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.

Who knows what the world will look like by July 2029.

It's interesting to remember how Jeremy Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after he took Russia's side after the Salisbury poisonings

CatMan

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

How soon is Kemi toast ?

Either side of the party conference is what I am hearing.

If Jenrick does stage a coup to replace her, they will deserve the electoral oblivion they are getting.

Lloyd George without the ability.

Or the sex (well, so far as we know).

Never misunderestimate a Cambridge man.

Fun fact, both Jenrick and Richard Burgon both went to St. John's.

So what you're saying is that St John's is a really, really bad college?

It produced Lord Palmerston and one of the greatest humans ever, William WIlberforce.

Palmerston's main education was at Edinburgh.

Wilberforce, ironically, spent much of his time at Cambridge boozing and gambling.

Everybody knows Pitt the Elder was a better Prime Minister than Lord Palmerston

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoDKh1EAZjI

TheScreamingEagles

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

isam said:

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.

I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.

You need to brush up on your north east geography!

You're all Geordies up there.

solarflare

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

isam said:

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.

I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.

Who knows what the world will look like by July 2029.

2029 is always a vaguely terrifying year in my brain because it's the future Kyle Reese is running around dodging Terminators and HKs in.

Stuartinromford

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

isam said:

This man could make the story of the greatest night of your life seem stilted, awkward and boring

In his first speech after yesterdays elections, Starmer could have chosen to appear at a school, a library or a care home. He could have spoken about the cost of living crisis.

Instead he chose to appear at a defence contractor and speak about Ukraine & military drones

https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1918244829491777904?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

They think Russia etc. is a weak spot for Reform? I think it could be, but it wasn't yesterday.

I think the Russia angle kicks in when it looks like Farage/Reform will be running foreign/defence policy rather than schools and potholes in Geordieland.

They should be so lucky. Their responsibilities are

1 Social care
2 Anything else they can't wriggle out of
3 Erm...
4 That's about it.

Some new councillors will rise to the challenge, I'm sure. But the promises made and implied are awfully big, and it's going to be a challenge to deliver them.

RochdalePioneers

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

That name is not good for searching on YouTube, but I found it and gave it its first Like.

Its brand new - literally. I'm tagging each video and borrowing a few tags. It will get out there. We just thought "Emergency Podcast" was kind of appropriate as so many serious pods have to do Emergency Podcasts...

ohnotnow

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Shoot me later. The WORLD EXCLUSIVE launch of my new YouTube politics channel called Emergency Podcast

https://youtu.be/T7Okk0bsMpI

That name is not good for searching on YouTube, but I found it and gave it its first Like.

It has a few likes - the YT user-interface just doesn't show them. On YT - I discovered recently that if you back out of a video within three seconds then YT severely marks it down. So if you ever really dislike a video or channel...

(Not Rochdale's! Like and subscribe!)