I wonder how much of Trump/Vance's unpopularity is down to his spat with Zelensky? Does Joe public really understand tariffs or care too much? I suspect not. But watching a diminutive international hero whose country stood alone being bullied and humiliated is something few will forget or forgive
I suspect tariffs are more important. People who aren't across the economic arguments soon sit up and listen if they go into work and hear the suits are panicking and talking about job and pay cuts.
Not forgetting Musk’s DOGE vandalism, which seems to have taken a lot of Trump voters by surprise when they realised they might be affected. That was already sinking approval ratings before Liberation Day.
Basically my electricty is largely free right now. I have responded by cranking up the hot tub. (It's just an inflatable hot tub. I'm not Peter Stringfellow.)
Reform U.K. is an inchoate answer to a yearning. The party will let you scream your rage, and scream it with you. It will be a vessel for your fury. It will watch sympathetically as you point at things that are broken and say that it sees them, too. But it’s plagued by the same lack of real answers that the far right seems to suffer from everywhere. I wonder whether that will matter.
"...elected five lawmakers from the far-right anti-immigration Reform U.K. party. "
They aren't far-right. At a guess they're European-style National Conservatives. UK finds it extremely difficult to classify parties. I'm on the tablet so I won't bore you all with a link to my "classifications" article...
Farage has made antisemitic tropes, a calling card of the far-right.
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Well, let's hope it doesn't come to that.
It won't come to that if Mr Trump coerces all the polling companies into showing that he's winning hearts & minds everywhere.
When he's succeeded in that he'll have no way to gauge whether he's actually likely to win or not.
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Is there a link to,that ? I’ve had a look and cannot see it on Twitter.
It was in a discussion with Skys defence analyst this morning over Trump's 100 days
Thanks.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm absolutely certain someone will!) but the mid-terms weren't cancelled during WWII. Indeed Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944 so there was a Presidential election.
Raises the interesting question of whether the Supreme Court can wade in what is a "national emergency"...
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Is there a link to,that ? I’ve had a look and cannot see it on Twitter.
It was in a discussion with Skys defence analyst this morning over Trump's 100 days
Thanks.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm absolutely certain someone will!) but the mid-terms weren't cancelled during WWII. Indeed Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944 so there was a Presidential election.
I wonder how much of Trump/Vance's unpopularity is down to his spat with Zelensky? Does Joe public really understand tariffs or care too much? I suspect not. But watching a diminutive international hero whose country stood alone being bullied and humiliated is something few will forget or forgive
I suspect tariffs are more important. People who aren't across the economic arguments soon sit up and listen if they go into work and hear the suits are panicking and talking about job and pay cuts.
Not forgetting Musk’s DOGE vandalism, which seems to have taken a lot of Trump voters by surprise when they realised they might be affected. That was already sinking approval ratings before Liberation Day.
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Is there a link to,that ? I’ve had a look and cannot see it on Twitter.
It was in a discussion with Skys defence analyst this morning over Trump's 100 days
Thanks.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm absolutely certain someone will!) but the mid-terms weren't cancelled during WWII. Indeed Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944 so there was a Presidential election.
Raises the interesting question of whether the Supreme Court can wade in what is a "national emergency"...
Well, if a World War, which wasn't going all that well in 1942, isn't a 'national emergency' what is? Millions of young men overseas on active service.
I wonder how much of Trump/Vance's unpopularity is down to his spat with Zelensky? Does Joe public really understand tariffs or care too much? I suspect not. But watching a diminutive international hero whose country stood alone being bullied and humiliated is something few will forget or forgive
I suspect tariffs are more important. People who aren't across the economic arguments soon sit up and listen if they go into work and hear the suits are panicking and talking about job and pay cuts.
Not forgetting Musk’s DOGE vandalism, which seems to have taken a lot of Trump voters by surprise when they realised they might be affected. That was already sinking approval ratings before Liberation Day.
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Is there a link to,that ? I’ve had a look and cannot see it on Twitter.
It was in a discussion with Skys defence analyst this morning over Trump's 100 days
Thanks.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm absolutely certain someone will!) but the mid-terms weren't cancelled during WWII. Indeed Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944 so there was a Presidential election.
Raises the interesting question of whether the Supreme Court can wade in what is a "national emergency"...
A few months ago talk like this would have been called TDS. It’s startling how quickly he’s normalised (well not normalised, but made plausible) the previously implausible.
Basically my electricty is largely free right now. I have responded by cranking up the hot tub. (It's just an inflatable hot tub. I'm not Peter Stringfellow.)
Good. Because he's been dead nearly seven years. Gonna make a mess of your hot tub filter system...
"Trump is increasingly unpopular. This presents a chance for Democrats to tie fascist politics — such as the targeting of immigrants and trans people — to a toxic presidency, and delegitimize those evil policies for years to come."
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Is there a link to,that ? I’ve had a look and cannot see it on Twitter.
It was in a discussion with Skys defence analyst this morning over Trump's 100 days
Thanks.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm absolutely certain someone will!) but the mid-terms weren't cancelled during WWII. Indeed Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944 so there was a Presidential election.
Canada is a lot closer to the US than Japan......
Are you suggesting he'll resurrect the old saying 'This animal is very dangerous; when it's attacked it defends itself.' Sadly I can't recall the original, French language, version with any accuracy.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Are you therefore predicting a glut of consumer goods outside the US?
Hopefully. And Britain with our services economy and lack of many competing export industries is well placed to benefit. Especially combined with the depressed oil price. A bit of consumer goods deflation would go down nicely right now.
I wonder how much of Trump/Vance's unpopularity is down to his spat with Zelensky? Does Joe public really understand tariffs or care too much? I suspect not. But watching a diminutive international hero whose country stood alone being bullied and humiliated is something few will forget or forgive
I suspect tariffs are more important. People who aren't across the economic arguments soon sit up and listen if they go into work and hear the suits are panicking and talking about job and pay cuts.
I think Roger's correct on this. People may not like economic self-interest (and yes, I'm as unconvinced as the next man that what they are doing on tarriffs will actually help them while it hurts others, but still), but they accept the principle of wanting to repatriate jobs etc. Whereas what Trump and Vance are doing to Ukraine just looks plain old-fashioned evil.
Hm - I may have misinterpeted Roger and SNP here - I was assuming Roger was talking about views in the UK. I have no insight into whether Americans are unhappy with what Trump is doing with Ukraine.
I wonder how much of Trump/Vance's unpopularity is down to his spat with Zelensky? Does Joe public really understand tariffs or care too much? I suspect not. But watching a diminutive international hero whose country stood alone being bullied and humiliated is something few will forget or forgive
I suspect tariffs are more important. People who aren't across the economic arguments soon sit up and listen if they go into work and hear the suits are panicking and talking about job and pay cuts.
Not forgetting Musk’s DOGE vandalism, which seems to have taken a lot of Trump voters by surprise when they realised they might be affected. That was already sinking approval ratings before Liberation Day.
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Is there a link to,that ? I’ve had a look and cannot see it on Twitter.
It was in a discussion with Skys defence analyst this morning over Trump's 100 days
Thanks.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm absolutely certain someone will!) but the mid-terms weren't cancelled during WWII. Indeed Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944 so there was a Presidential election.
Raises the interesting question of whether the Supreme Court can wade in what is a "national emergency"...
The Supreme Court can't say what is or isn't a national emergency, only Congress can do that (but it needs 2/3rds of both houses). However even the President can't break the constitution and suspending elections beyond the end of 2026 would be unconstitutional.
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Is there a link to,that ? I’ve had a look and cannot see it on Twitter.
It was in a discussion with Skys defence analyst this morning over Trump's 100 days
Thanks.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm absolutely certain someone will!) but the mid-terms weren't cancelled during WWII. Indeed Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944 so there was a Presidential election.
Canada is a lot closer to the US than Japan......
Are you suggesting he'll resurrect the old saying 'This animal is very dangerous; when it's attacked it defends itself.' Sadly I can't recall the original, French language, version with any accuracy.
Cet animal est très méchant; quand on l'attaque il se défend.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Are you therefore predicting a glut of consumer goods outside the US?
I am.
And I suspect that it will end up being a boon for economies that currently underconsume.
Ironically, Trump's policies may end up boosting economic growth in China and the EU, because politicians will be forced to reverse idiotic policies that suppress consumption.
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Is there a link to,that ? I’ve had a look and cannot see it on Twitter.
It was in a discussion with Skys defence analyst this morning over Trump's 100 days
Thanks.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm absolutely certain someone will!) but the mid-terms weren't cancelled during WWII. Indeed Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944 so there was a Presidential election.
Canada is a lot closer to the US than Japan......
Are you suggesting he'll resurrect the old saying 'This animal is very dangerous; when it's attacked it defends itself.' Sadly I can't recall the original, French language, version with any accuracy.
The idea of Trump knowing an old, wise French saying is quite absurd. The whole point of the Canada 51st state line is to cancel the elections if and when needed.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Are you therefore predicting a glut of consumer goods outside the US?
I am.
And I suspect that it will end up being a boon for economies that currently underconsume.
Ironically, Trump's policies may end up boosting economic growth in China and the EU, because politicians will be forced to reverse idiotic policies that suppress consumption.
While the US has no presents to give children for Christmas.
I wonder how much of Trump/Vance's unpopularity is down to his spat with Zelensky? Does Joe public really understand tariffs or care too much? I suspect not. But watching a diminutive international hero whose country stood alone being bullied and humiliated is something few will forget or forgive
The spat with Zelensky isn't affecting the value of everyone's 401k. Tariff impact >>>>>>>>>>> Zelensky spat for the average American I think.
I agree but Trump/Vance is a brand and when a brand becomes badly soiled it affects everything. I agree less so in the US where etiquette is less prized or expected but certainly in the rest of the world which then of course feeds it back and Americans discover they're now international pariahs.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Xi says "hold my container ships..."
It's only a week or so since the bosses of the likes of Walmart and Target were warning Trump of shortages, and not even due to the tariffs being imposed but merely the anticipation of them.
I wonder how much of Trump/Vance's unpopularity is down to his spat with Zelensky? Does Joe public really understand tariffs or care too much? I suspect not. But watching a diminutive international hero whose country stood alone being bullied and humiliated is something few will forget or forgive
I suspect tariffs are more important. People who aren't across the economic arguments soon sit up and listen if they go into work and hear the suits are panicking and talking about job and pay cuts.
Not forgetting Musk’s DOGE vandalism, which seems to have taken a lot of Trump voters by surprise when they realised they might be affected. That was already sinking approval ratings before Liberation Day.
Over the weekend came the alarming news that immigration officials have deported as many as three U.S. citizen children, one of whom has stage 4 cancer and needs access to critical treatment and medication. All of them were with their mothers, who had appeared for routine immigration check-ins, when they were arrested and immediately prepped for deportation. They were denied access to counsel and denied the ability to place their children with other family members or guardians so the children could remain in the U.S.
On April 25, a federal judge in Louisiana, U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty, ordered the Trump administration to appear on May 16 "in the interest of dispelling our strong suspicion that the government just deported a U.S. citizen with no meaningful process." The government had put one of the women, and her two children, ages 2 and 11, on a plane even while they were trying to get into court. The father tried to ensure that his citizen daughter was not also deported; instead, ICE threatened to deport him, too. Doughty even tried to reach the woman by phone during the flight only to be told by ICE that she had already been released in Honduras. It is clear that Trump officials are going to great lengths to prevent their targets from exercising any of their due process rights. In this environment, U.S. citizens will inevitably also be picked up and shipped out.
On topic, we've had plenty of politicians think they can do the job of a central banker better than the bankers. Generally they can't.
We're about to find out if the inverse is true or not.
Trump said he would do a better job as chairman of the federal reserve than the guy he appointed.
My question is - once Trump appoints himself chairman, will he use the threat of ending access to swap lines to try and force concessions from other countries, as some people are suggesting?
It looks kinda nuts, and must be bigly economic self-harm, but that's normal for Trump. What would happen if he tried it?
NB I'm not entirely sure what the significance of swap lines are, but they sound important.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Xi says "hold my container ships..."
It's only a week or so since the bosses of the likes of Walmart and Target were warning Trump of shortages, and not even due to the tariffs being imposed but merely the anticipation of them.
First issue will be the empty shelves which will become harder and harder to hide.
After that if the shelves get filled the fact prices have more than doubled will be obvious. And Walmart / Target are volume retailers that operate on lowish margins so the tariff increase will be obvious even if not explicitly called out.
Q) Somebody told me that the two of you guys have never really met in person. How is that possible?
A) You’re going to have to ask him. I think seven years ago, I met him once in Ottawa. A breakfast right after one of my events. But we never really talked there.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Xi says "hold my container ships..."
It's only a week or so since the bosses of the likes of Walmart and Target were warning Trump of shortages, and not even due to the tariffs being imposed but merely the anticipation of them.
As we've seen repeatedly in recent years the mere expectation of a shortage can make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The only issue is that these shortages in the past, eg toilet rolls and petrol, have had a specific item that people are going out to rush and get at once that creates the shortage. "Consumer goods" isn't specific enough to cause mass hysteria in the same way.
If a particular essential product gets fingered, that's when a real shortage could rapidly appear.
"Trump is increasingly unpopular. This presents a chance for Democrats to tie fascist politics — such as the targeting of immigrants and trans people — to a toxic presidency, and delegitimize those evil policies for years to come."
Reform U.K. is an inchoate answer to a yearning. The party will let you scream your rage, and scream it with you. It will be a vessel for your fury. It will watch sympathetically as you point at things that are broken and say that it sees them, too. But it’s plagued by the same lack of real answers that the far right seems to suffer from everywhere. I wonder whether that will matter.
"...elected five lawmakers from the far-right anti-immigration Reform U.K. party. "
They aren't far-right. At a guess they're European-style National Conservatives. UK finds it extremely difficult to classify parties. I'm on the tablet so I won't bore you all with a link to my "classifications" article...
Farage has made antisemitic tropes, a calling card of the far-right.
As we've seen repeatedly in recent years the mere expectation of a shortage can make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The only issue is that these shortages in the past, eg toilet rolls and petrol, have had a specific item that people are going out to rush and get at once that creates the shortage. "Consumer goods" isn't specific enough to cause mass hysteria in the same way.
If a particular essential product gets fingered, that's when a real shortage could rapidly appear.
There will be real shortages because companies have already stopped shipping goods because nobody knows what tariffs might apply when they arrive.
“According to our own port optimizer, which measures the loadings in Asia, we’ll be down just a little bit over 35% next week compared to last year. And it’s a precipitous drop in volume with a number of major American retailers stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs,” Seroka said.
The shortage is coming even if Trump cancelled all tariffs today.
You may be interested to know that Revenge of the Sith was re-released last weekend for the 20th Anniversary. It's still in some cinemas but I think the last showing is today or tomorrow, dependent on cinema. I won't spoil the ending but Anakin has a really bad time.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Just a shortage of affordable consumer goods!
China isn't sending them because they are too expensive to be bought. So, yep - shortages.
When the shelves start to empty, the panic buying (and probably accompanying riots) will be a thing to behold.
I know there's more to it than this. But my mental image of goods from China is the absolute most unneccesary tat of western culture - singing Christmas trees, things to wedge between your toes, musical buscuit tins and the like. And it amuses me to think that people might be rioting for a shortage of musical biscuit tins. This is, I should stress, a whimsical point. More seriously, there is a reasonable story to tell about the west consuming too much unnecessary tat (which is produced in China). If we can get to a point where we ship halfway around the world, and are briefly amused by before sending to landfill, rather fewer musical biscuit tins and singing Christmas trees, I don't think that would be an altogether bad thing.
Looks like a bust up with Trump and Besos with Karoline Leavitt calling Amazon action a hostile act
Well, it is a hostile act.
But it also shows that Amazon reckons the Republicans are probably not going to do well in the midterms, and therefore hitching the wagon to Trump may not be that smart an idea. (The fact that Trump doesn't seem to be getting very far in his tariff negotiations may also play a role.)
Sky reporter suggesting Trump will call a national emergency and cancel the mid terms if he looks like losing
What on earth has America become ?
Is there a link to,that ? I’ve had a look and cannot see it on Twitter.
It was in a discussion with Skys defence analyst this morning over Trump's 100 days
Thanks.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm absolutely certain someone will!) but the mid-terms weren't cancelled during WWII. Indeed Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944 so there was a Presidential election.
Canada is a lot closer to the US than Japan......
Are you suggesting he'll resurrect the old saying 'This animal is very dangerous; when it's attacked it defends itself.' Sadly I can't recall the original, French language, version with any accuracy.
Cet animal est très méchant; quand on l'attaque il se défend.
A friend tells me renewable energy (namely failing to switch the grid over to gas supply for a rest period) is responsible for the Iberian blackouts.
If this anecdote happens to be true, then it its the "FAILING to switch the grid over" which was responsible, not that one of the generation methods was being renewable energy.
That would be the trigger, overreliance on renewables would be the cause.
I understand that energy generated from solar and wind is different from other sources of energy and needs turbine energy from other sources to protect the network
It seems Spain and Portugal have been exposed to too much reliance on solar and wind which in turn is a lesson that may be needed to be learnt.
I would say I stand to be corrected as I am not an expert on energy production
Would you mind sharing your source @Big_G_NorthWales? I've just been ranted at by 3 PBers for saying exactly the same thing.
The problem is the absence of what is called "spinning reserve".
Back in the good old days, when almost all our electricity was produced by burning stuff, generation worked as follows:
Burn stuff, create heat. Use said heat (either directly or via a working fluid such as steam) to drive a turbine turning it kenetic energy. Take said kenetic energy, stick it into a electrical generator (effectively an electric motor in reverse) and get electricity out of the far end. The generators were usually coupled pretty much straight to the grid, spinning at rate which chuck out an output synced to grid frequency.
Now one of the benefits of this system is that at any given time there is a lot of kenetic energy stored in the rotating masses of the turbines and generators - and this makes the system really stable. If some supply drops off the network for a few seconds all that spinning mass will exert itself really hard, effectively overloading the generator to try and maintain grid frequency. Equally, if a load of demand falls off the grid, the inertia in the spinning mass stops the plant accelerating away to oblivion.
Most renewable systems don't work like that, they can only output their rated power. So when you get a supply or demand wobble on the grid, at best they don't respond to it (and thus the wobble continues) and at worst they spot an overload condition and trip out - at which point you get a cascading failure.
As renewable penetration has increased, the problem has got a lot more significant.
Various grid systems are playing with ways to create artificial "spinning reserve", ranging from building big motor/gen flywheel sets to battery banks with huge inverters capabile of putting out GWs of power for a few seconds.
As with many things, it's a problem solvable by engineering, but it's quite likely consumers will end up paying, rather than it being included in the costs paid by renewable producers, so it's effectively a hidden subsidy to renewables*.
*or you can wing it and try and run without sufficient spinning reserve, but then everyone pays when it goes wrong - see also Spain's little disaster which started this conversation.
Do we know if that's why Spain/Portugal had this big power cut though?
Not definitely, but from what can be gleaned from the public statements from their grid operator it looks very much like a large generator or interconnector dropped offline for a couple of seconds and caused a cascading failure.
If they'd had more spinning reserve they might not have been out of the woods (depends a lot on what tripped and what reserve capacity they had) but it might have created enough breathing space to recover.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Xi says "hold my container ships..."
It's only a week or so since the bosses of the likes of Walmart and Target were warning Trump of shortages, and not even due to the tariffs being imposed but merely the anticipation of them.
As we've seen repeatedly in recent years the mere expectation of a shortage can make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The only issue is that these shortages in the past, eg toilet rolls and petrol, have had a specific item that people are going out to rush and get at once that creates the shortage. "Consumer goods" isn't specific enough to cause mass hysteria in the same way.
If a particular essential product gets fingered, that's when a real shortage could rapidly appear.
I regret to inform PB that as of today the shops here seem to be fully stocked and there’s no hint of panic buying.
In fact everything looks and feels normal. It’s a feature of countries that are going through what seem to be dystopian political events that they usually seem pretty normal when you visit.
People commented likewise about Greece during the Eurozone crisis and France during the Gilets Jaunes. I found that in Russia in 2014 too, though it was distinctly non-normal on my last visit in 2018.
1980s PBers who spent the Canadian election listening to @Sunil_Prasannan's musical A to Z should look out for Adam Curtis's series to be released in June.
Hat-tip: The Rest is Entertainment. I *think* Marina said the name is Shifty, and it's a social history of the 1980s.
‘You sold it – now recycle it’: the protesters mailing worn-out clothes to the shops they bought them from
Guardian headline. A classic. No question of the headline 'I bought it so it is my responsibility'. That's not how buck passing works.
I thought I was the only person who wears clothes until they're worn out. Glad to hear there are more of us.
I try to but my wife has an irritating habit of spending our hard earned money on new clothes I do not need. I love her very much but it is one thing I hate. I dread birthdays and Fathers' Day for this reason.
My orange T shirt, sob. Saved it twice but then it disappeared. Ok it had the odd hole. But it was so comfortable.
I know there's more to it than this. But my mental image of goods from China is the absolute most unneccesary tat of western culture - singing Christmas trees, things to wedge between your toes, musical buscuit tins and the like. And it amuses me to think that people might be rioting for a shortage of musical biscuit tins. This is, I should stress, a whimsical point. More seriously, there is a reasonable story to tell about the west consuming too much unnecessary tat (which is produced in China). If we can get to a point where we ship halfway around the world, and are briefly amused by before sending to landfill, rather fewer musical biscuit tins and singing Christmas trees, I don't think that would be an altogether bad thing.
It's true that there are a lot of low value goods that we probably could do without, but there would be significant economic impacts if we all stopped buying such things at once.
There are probably smart ways of onshoring production of such goods, by educating and training people, investing in facilities, and automating production lines. Whacking bloody great tariffs on everything is the polar opposite of that.
You may be interested to know that Revenge of the Sith was re-released last weekend for the 20th Anniversary. It's still in some cinemas but I think the last showing is today or tomorrow, dependent on cinema. I won't spoil the ending but Anakin has a really bad time.
The Anglosphere is to be re-organised into the First Galactic Empire! For a safe and secure society!
Q) Somebody told me that the two of you guys have never really met in person. How is that possible?
A) You’re going to have to ask him. I think seven years ago, I met him once in Ottawa. A breakfast right after one of my events. But we never really talked there.
Maybe it's not hard to see why Poilievre lost?
Everyone's saying Liberals beat the Conservatives, and yes they got more seats. But the real losers were the NDP. It's like 2015 here. Cameron's Conservatives gained seats; not from Labour but from their erstwhile coalition 'partners' the LibDems. Labour's defeat was due to their losses to the SNP.
Basically my electricty is largely free right now. I have responded by cranking up the hot tub. (It's just an inflatable hot tub. I'm not Peter Stringfellow.)
I'm not sure that's something you should have, Cookie.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Just a shortage of affordable consumer goods!
China isn't sending them because they are too expensive to be bought. So, yep - shortages.
When the shelves start to empty, the panic buying (and probably accompanying riots) will be a thing to behold.
I know there's more to it than this. But my mental image of goods from China is the absolute most unneccesary tat of western culture - singing Christmas trees, things to wedge between your toes, musical buscuit tins and the like. And it amuses me to think that people might be rioting for a shortage of musical biscuit tins. This is, I should stress, a whimsical point. More seriously, there is a reasonable story to tell about the west consuming too much unnecessary tat (which is produced in China). If we can get to a point where we ship halfway around the world, and are briefly amused by before sending to landfill, rather fewer musical biscuit tins and singing Christmas trees, I don't think that would be an altogether bad thing.
All sorts of other things too, brake pads etc. It's not all consumer tat like MAGA baseball caps.
A friend tells me renewable energy (namely failing to switch the grid over to gas supply for a rest period) is responsible for the Iberian blackouts.
If this anecdote happens to be true, then it its the "FAILING to switch the grid over" which was responsible, not that one of the generation methods was being renewable energy.
That would be the trigger, overreliance on renewables would be the cause.
I understand that energy generated from solar and wind is different from other sources of energy and needs turbine energy from other sources to protect the network
It seems Spain and Portugal have been exposed to too much reliance on solar and wind which in turn is a lesson that may be needed to be learnt.
I would say I stand to be corrected as I am not an expert on energy production
Would you mind sharing your source @Big_G_NorthWales? I've just been ranted at by 3 PBers for saying exactly the same thing.
The problem is the absence of what is called "spinning reserve".
Back in the good old days, when almost all our electricity was produced by burning stuff, generation worked as follows:
Burn stuff, create heat. Use said heat (either directly or via a working fluid such as steam) to drive a turbine turning it kenetic energy. Take said kenetic energy, stick it into a electrical generator (effectively an electric motor in reverse) and get electricity out of the far end. The generators were usually coupled pretty much straight to the grid, spinning at rate which chuck out an output synced to grid frequency.
Now one of the benefits of this system is that at any given time there is a lot of kenetic energy stored in the rotating masses of the turbines and generators - and this makes the system really stable. If some supply drops off the network for a few seconds all that spinning mass will exert itself really hard, effectively overloading the generator to try and maintain grid frequency. Equally, if a load of demand falls off the grid, the inertia in the spinning mass stops the plant accelerating away to oblivion.
Most renewable systems don't work like that, they can only output their rated power. So when you get a supply or demand wobble on the grid, at best they don't respond to it (and thus the wobble continues) and at worst they spot an overload condition and trip out - at which point you get a cascading failure.
As renewable penetration has increased, the problem has got a lot more significant.
Various grid systems are playing with ways to create artificial "spinning reserve", ranging from building big motor/gen flywheel sets to battery banks with huge inverters capabile of putting out GWs of power for a few seconds.
As with many things, it's a problem solvable by engineering, but it's quite likely consumers will end up paying, rather than it being included in the costs paid by renewable producers, so it's effectively a hidden subsidy to renewables*.
*or you can wing it and try and run without sufficient spinning reserve, but then everyone pays when it goes wrong - see also Spain's little disaster which started this conversation.
Do we know if that's why Spain/Portugal had this big power cut though?
Not definitely, but from what can be gleaned from the public statements from their grid operator it looks very much like a large generator or interconnector dropped offline for a couple of seconds and caused a cascading failure.
If they'd had more spinning reserve they might not have been out of the woods (depends a lot on what tripped and what reserve capacity they had) but it might have created enough breathing space to recover.
Another issue is *how* the phase and frequency is transmitted. Often, the generators are trying to follow what everyone else is doing (the timing and frequency of the *rest* of the grid).
If the grid as a whole starts to move (changing frequency or timing) then you can get some interesting effects as generators start to chase the changes.
Q) Somebody told me that the two of you guys have never really met in person. How is that possible?
A) You’re going to have to ask him. I think seven years ago, I met him once in Ottawa. A breakfast right after one of my events. But we never really talked there.
Maybe it's not hard to see why Poilievre lost?
That's insane: Doug Ford and Carney appear to have a pretty decent relationship, but Poilievre never even reached out to him.
I know there's more to it than this. But my mental image of goods from China is the absolute most unneccesary tat of western culture - singing Christmas trees, things to wedge between your toes, musical buscuit tins and the like. And it amuses me to think that people might be rioting for a shortage of musical biscuit tins. This is, I should stress, a whimsical point. More seriously, there is a reasonable story to tell about the west consuming too much unnecessary tat (which is produced in China). If we can get to a point where we ship halfway around the world, and are briefly amused by before sending to landfill, rather fewer musical biscuit tins and singing Christmas trees, I don't think that would be an altogether bad thing.
It's true that there are a lot of low value goods that we probably could do without, but there would be significant economic impacts if we all stopped buying such things at once.
There are probably smart ways of onshoring production of such goods, by educating and training people, investing in facilities, and automating production lines. Whacking bloody great tariffs on everything is the polar opposite of that.
A lot of the items I need to manage my incontinence apparently come from China.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Are you therefore predicting a glut of consumer goods outside the US?
I am.
And I suspect that it will end up being a boon for economies that currently underconsume.
Not only consumer goods. I've just had one of my Chinese suppliers offer me a 25% discount if I order a larger than usual quantity of semiconductors from them. Their prices are already very low and they've never given any kind of discount before.
Reform are the NIMBY party, we’ve had pylons for decades and they want to stop them being built.
This is what I mean when I say whatever Labour try to do, the NIMBY establishment will oppose at any turn. They really need to tell them where to go.
And with that, fin.
I still don't get your 5 strikes and out thing.
WRT pylons, there are two ways to avoid them. 1) Build high-use energy industries near to the power generation source. Instead of cast pylons to carry energy from Scotland down to the Varsity Crescent for datacentres, build those in Aberdeenshire where the power is onshored 2) Build power generation where the pylons already are. As you can't build renewables in Nottinghamshire etc that means building coal / gas which takes time and leaves us reliant on the forrin
Fukkers have a third way - don't bother with woke things like AI datacentres or anything else which needs power. Nor do you have to actually reopen the coal mines or rebuild the coal power stations - you just chant Net Zero is woke and mysteriously we're transported back to 1978!
A party that opposes the pylons being built from Norwich to Tilbury will clean up. It’s the one thing that seems to unite people of all political persuasions round here. People would rather higher energy bills than the neighbourhood ruined
A year after they've been built nobody will even notice them any more.
Even if that were true, which I doubt, it doesn’t make it a good thing. Plenty of tragic things happen that people move on from, but it doesn’t mean life is not worse than it was before.
I play football in Grays, and as I turn into the road where the ground is, huge pylons start to dominate the sky. I find it quite depressing, and reminds me that Grays is a bit of a khazi. It doesn’t bother me to be a NIMBY, I’d rather pay higher energy bills than have the pylons spoil the beauty of the countryside
Grays is hardly typical, though.
It's one mile from the two tallest pylons in the entire country, which are 600+ft tall (ie taller than the Post Office Tower) and used to bring 400kV wires across the Thames just below the QE bridge !
The vast majority of transmission pylons are under a quarter of that height, at 120 to 150 ft - despite the shit shovelled by the Daily Telegraph about 600ft pylons appearing all over Essex.
If the people of Essex believe the Telegraph, then no disrespect but that is entirely their own problem.
I feel well qualified to comment as I have 2 views despoiled by pylons. The vineyard is in a dry valley that sometime in the past the grid decided would suit 2 power lines. Smallish, but very visible. I also have a giant phone mast opposite the vines, which makes for good 5G connectivity but is probably frying my brain. And our place in France is a 5 minute walk away from another dry valley that EDF decided decades ago would be ideal for a huge power line. Fortunately not visible from our hamlet.
The one place you won’t find a pylon for love nor money is inner London. We don’t even have telegraph poles, it’s all buried.
Depends on the voltage. Highest transmission voltage is 400kv which tends to be cross country distribution. Lower voltages e.g 150kv or less (more local) can be put underground if need be. They are buried at different depths depending on the load carried. Here's an explanation for all of those who really, really want to know about power distribution. (It's not very exciting but it can be fun when there is a multi-million claim against you for a technical cock-up, especially if it's in Saudi)
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Xi says "hold my container ships..."
It's only a week or so since the bosses of the likes of Walmart and Target were warning Trump of shortages, and not even due to the tariffs being imposed but merely the anticipation of them.
As we've seen repeatedly in recent years the mere expectation of a shortage can make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The only issue is that these shortages in the past, eg toilet rolls and petrol, have had a specific item that people are going out to rush and get at once that creates the shortage. "Consumer goods" isn't specific enough to cause mass hysteria in the same way.
If a particular essential product gets fingered, that's when a real shortage could rapidly appear.
From what I hear a lot of expensive purchases are being brought forward in case prices rise (see the car dealers discussed earlier and computer purchases).
Separately Vegas is supposedly having an awful time as people are saving instead going on expensive weekends away
I'd be wary of reading too much from Canada to elsewhere. Canada has a unique rally to the flag effect as Trump is literally threatening Canada with annexation.
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Are you therefore predicting a glut of consumer goods outside the US?
I am.
And I suspect that it will end up being a boon for economies that currently underconsume.
Ironically, Trump's policies may end up boosting economic growth in China and the EU, because politicians will be forced to reverse idiotic policies that suppress consumption.
Some investment experts are already recommending UK and EU equities on this very basis
US Amazon has a policy that differs from long-established American law for stores: When I go into Best Buy, or a supermarket, I can usually see where a product was produced before I buy it. With Amazon, I usually can't. (American producers can include that in their descriptions, and sometimes do.)
Some Americans are willing to pay more for products that are produced in ways and places they approve of. (I am one of them: I prefer, for example, to avoid products made by the ChiComs -- when I can.)
Amazon would, I believe, be hurt by a requirement that they state the origin for every product they sell.
(My apologies for being vague on the legal requirements. I am not a lawyer, much less one specializing in that subject.)
Comments
https://bsky.app/profile/annabower.bsky.social/post/3lnwav76hds26
(It's just an inflatable hot tub. I'm not Peter Stringfellow.)
When he's succeeded in that he'll have no way to gauge whether he's actually likely to win or not.
@axios
JUST IN: Bessent says tariffs will not cause shortages of consumer goods
Who has cancer.
Deported without their meds.
In the absence of anyone else, lay that one at Trump's door.
Millions of young men overseas on active service.
There’s a Nissan dealership on my drive home from work that has “TARIFF FREE INVENTORY” painted in psychedelic lettering on its windows
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-demands-investigations-negative-approval-rating-polls-2064949
Sadly I can't recall the original, French language, version with any accuracy.
And I suspect that it will end up being a boon for economies that currently underconsume.
Ironically, Trump's policies may end up boosting economic growth in China and the EU, because politicians will be forced to reverse idiotic policies that suppress consumption.
Even the Grinch would blanche at Trump's actions.
When the shelves start to empty, the panic buying (and probably accompanying riots) will be a thing to behold.
Over the weekend came the alarming news that immigration officials have deported as many as three U.S. citizen children, one of whom has stage 4 cancer and needs access to critical treatment and medication. All of them were with their mothers, who had appeared for routine immigration check-ins, when they were arrested and immediately prepped for deportation. They were denied access to counsel and denied the ability to place their children with other family members or guardians so the children could remain in the U.S.
On April 25, a federal judge in Louisiana, U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty, ordered the Trump administration to appear on May 16 "in the interest of dispelling our strong suspicion that the government just deported a U.S. citizen with no meaningful process." The government had put one of the women, and her two children, ages 2 and 11, on a plane even while they were trying to get into court. The father tried to ensure that his citizen daughter was not also deported; instead, ICE threatened to deport him, too. Doughty even tried to reach the woman by phone during the flight only to be told by ICE that she had already been released in Honduras. It is clear that Trump officials are going to great lengths to prevent their targets from exercising any of their due process rights. In this environment, U.S. citizens will inevitably also be picked up and shipped out.
My question is - once Trump appoints himself chairman, will he use the threat of ending access to swap lines to try and force concessions from other countries, as some people are suggesting?
It looks kinda nuts, and must be bigly economic self-harm, but that's normal for Trump. What would happen if he tried it?
NB I'm not entirely sure what the significance of swap lines are, but they sound important.
After that if the shelves get filled the fact prices have more than doubled will be obvious. And Walmart / Target are volume retailers that operate on lowish margins so the tariff increase will be obvious even if not explicitly called out.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/28/doug-ford-ontario-canada-election-00311985
A) You’re going to have to ask him. I think seven years ago, I met him once in Ottawa. A breakfast right after one of my events. But we never really talked there.
The only issue is that these shortages in the past, eg toilet rolls and petrol, have had a specific item that people are going out to rush and get at once that creates the shortage. "Consumer goods" isn't specific enough to cause mass hysteria in the same way.
If a particular essential product gets fingered, that's when a real shortage could rapidly appear.
Survey 40 (filtered) people from a polling group of 10,000
Sub samples could be very useful here
This is from today.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/port-of-los-angeles-sees-shipping-volume-down-35percent-next-week-as-tariffs-bite.html
The shortage is coming even if Trump cancelled all tariffs today.
This is, I should stress, a whimsical point.
More seriously, there is a reasonable story to tell about the west consuming too much unnecessary tat (which is produced in China). If we can get to a point where we ship halfway around the world, and are briefly amused by before sending to landfill, rather fewer musical biscuit tins and singing Christmas trees, I don't think that would be an altogether bad thing.
If they'd had more spinning reserve they might not have been out of the woods (depends a lot on what tripped and what reserve capacity they had) but it might have created enough breathing space to recover.
In fact everything looks and feels normal. It’s a feature of countries that are going through what seem to be dystopian political events that they usually seem pretty normal when you visit.
People commented likewise about Greece during the Eurozone crisis and France during the Gilets Jaunes. I found that in Russia in 2014 too, though it was distinctly non-normal on my last visit in 2018.
Hat-tip: The Rest is Entertainment. I *think* Marina said the name is Shifty, and it's a social history of the 1980s.
There are probably smart ways of onshoring production of such goods, by educating and training people, investing in facilities, and automating production lines. Whacking bloody great tariffs on everything is the polar opposite of that.
Everyone's saying Liberals beat the Conservatives, and yes they got more seats. But the real losers were the NDP.
It's like 2015 here. Cameron's Conservatives gained seats; not from Labour but from their erstwhile coalition 'partners' the LibDems.
Labour's defeat was due to their losses to the SNP.
If the grid as a whole starts to move (changing frequency or timing) then you can get some interesting effects as generators start to chase the changes.
https://x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1917189621290795304
@juddlegum.bsky.social
BREAKING: Communicating facts now officially deemed a "hostile and political act" by the White House
https://bsky.app/profile/juddlegum.bsky.social/post/3lnxfqrr2ek2w
If democrats can't make hay out of this they should give up politics
NEW THREAD
https://www.ssen-transmission.co.uk/globalassets/projects/2030-projects/2030-project-documents/the-challenges-with-undergrounding-at-400kv.pdf
Separately Vegas is supposedly having an awful time as people are saving instead going on expensive weekends away
Whodathunkit?
Some Americans are willing to pay more for products that are produced in ways and places they approve of. (I am one of them: I prefer, for example, to avoid products made by the ChiComs -- when I can.)
Amazon would, I believe, be hurt by a requirement that they state the origin for every product they sell.
(My apologies for being vague on the legal requirements. I am not a lawyer, much less one specializing in that subject.)