Yes. *One* of the criteria. Another one is current polling. They never said you had to do well in every one to be considered. Imagine a scenario where a newly formed party went to 80% in the polls. Even if you consider current polling were just one of the criteria, there's clearly a level where you get through on that criteria alone.
Past electoral support rather than opinion polling seems to be the main criterion, but feel free to write to them.
As I said, I don't personally have strong views on the matter, but I'm quite certain they won't change the rules at this late stage.
As regards the debates (a closely related issue but not quite the same one), my personal view is that there should be a PM candidate debate (Miliband vs Cameron in this case, designed to give viewers the opportunity to assess the individuals who might be PM after the election), and a party leaders' debate which of course would include the LibDems, the Greens and UKIP, and which might include the BNP if their polling were as strong as it was before the last election. That would be an opportunity for putting forward and debating alternative views.
However, ain't gonna happen. The LibDems would, not unreasonably from their point of view, fight it tooth and nail.
If there were multiple debates, I wouldn't mind one of them just being Cameron vs Miliband. It's UKIP's total exclusion from all of them that would be wrong.
Completely agree. IMO there should be one Cameron vs Miliband, and another for the lesser parties, as Richard Nabavi suggested
The truth of the matter is that George is already Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister.
Dave is merely George's proxy.
What is more, George is winning. On his own terms and at his own pace.
Shadsy should both pay out and be paid now.
Come May 2015, Mr. Brooke will be the only punter left not backing George.
chortle
I think GO will be bricking it that the wheels don't come off the bandwagon before the GE. He's not actually addressed the real economy.
Doing some interesting work on the "real economy" at the moment, Mr. Brooke.
But you will have to wait for the yellow boxes.
Go for it Mr Pole !
remember that the BoP is a lagging indicator - it's just that it's been lagging for the last 30 years.
It's nothing to do with manufacturing or exports, Mr. Brooke.
I said the real economy.
The man at the ONS said this:
"As a percentage of GDP, the current account deficits over recent quarters represent some of the largest on record. However, relatively little of this is due to deteriorating net trade. Most of the decline stems from falling income from UK assets overseas, compared with income from foreign-owned assets in the UK"
It looks like we have been financing our spending by selling assets off to foreigners, which is leading us to have to send more money abroad to pay these new owners.
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good.
so let me get this straight - the guy who wants to see less immigration and is a committed Kipper provides as far as I can remember the only actual concrete real life example on PB of how immigration has unambiguously benefited the indigenous population, electricians to boot, thereby confirming many of the studies on the subject but, I presume (?), remains anti-immigration.
The Lab PPC, meanwhile, writes how this (immigration benefiting the indigenous population) is not necessarily a good thing and that there are a lot of ifs and buts and so forths which mean that we shouldn't welcome this on-the-ground research and conclusion.
Right.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
Some of my friends have branched out into doing Audio Visual installation as it is more lucrative and less difficult, than standard electrician work. They may or may not have done this anyway, but these are people in their late 30s who have started their own company.
The others that are still working for a boss are competing for jobs with EU migrants on much lower pay than they got 5 or 6 years ago, and working on sites where no one speaks English. Lord knows what young workers are doing.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
It does you're right. But in aggregate the nation is better off. More capital to invest or lower prices for consumers but yes, in particular lower (and higher) skilled workers lose out.
Now of course there must be a balance and I am in favour of a debate and also sensible immigration controls but if you see the analogy with making, for example, cheap plastic toys, it becomes clear that it would not be optimal for the UK to revert or regress to being the cheap plastic toy making capital of the world. We are able (as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
I'm willing to let the cats and songbirds battle it out for supremacy in the back garden.
I have been doing that for more than thirty years. So far the song birds seem to be holding their own pretty well. Just looked out of my study window and saw, tits, goldfinches, sparrows (house and tree variety), 3 pairs of blackbirds, a couple of robins (our normal one plus a mate of his that seems to have dropped in for tea) a pair of collar doves and a small flock of starlings - earlier on Mr. & Mrs Woodpecker stopped by for lunch but they have gone now. My cat doesn't seem to worry the birds one bit, mind you he is 17 now and not as spry as he used to be. He likes looking at the birds but gave up trying to chase them many years ago, his predecessors were the same.
But what if one loves little songbirds more than the neighbours' cats defecating in one's garden and eating the birds that you are trying to encourage? They are a menace and ought to be kept indoors or dealt with just as stray dogs are.
Quite right. They should be disposed of like verminous invasive species which destroy indigenous British wildlife, such as Japanese knotweed.
Not just the wildlife. You should ask any mum who knows about toxocariasis what she thinks of cats defecating in her children's garden playspace.
What about a fox defecating in her children's garden playspace? Or a hedgehog? Or wild rabbits? As a parent, it's your responsibility to make sure your child is safe, rather than trying to ban everything.
That is true of course, and it's an interesting point because I seem to recall that cats are regarded by English (?) law as wild animals - you have to report a dog if you run it over in your car but not a cat or something like that.
On the other hand, if your neighbour were positively to breed foxes and encourage wild rabbits ...
The other factor is that toxocariasis - and also toxoplasmosis - are recognised health hazards of domestic cats which by their nature are particular risk factors for humans, even if other species carry these parasites. They may/will ultimately need to be dealt with in some way or ways, much as the Icelanders realised that another parasitic disease, a species of tapeworm, was a problem and legislated for measures including compulsory treatment of all dogs.
Personally wouldn't feel I have the right to kill any living creature.
So there should be a law against destroying wasps' nests on your property? Or should only the most fluffy forms of vermin be worthy of legal protection?
so let me get this straight - the guy who wants to see less immigration and is a committed Kipper provides as far as I can remember the only actual concrete real life example on PB of how immigration has unambiguously benefited the indigenous population, electricians to boot, thereby confirming many of the studies on the subject but, I presume (?), remains anti-immigration.
The Lab PPC, meanwhile, writes how this (immigration benefiting the indigenous population) is not necessarily a good thing and that there are a lot of ifs and buts and so forths which mean that we shouldn't welcome this on-the-ground research and conclusion.
Right.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
Some of my friends have branched out into doing Audio Visual installation as it is more lucrative and less difficult, than standard electrician work. They may or may not have done this anyway, but these are people in their late 30s who have started their own company.
The others that are still working for a boss are competing for jobs with EU migrants on much lower pay than they got 5 or 6 years ago, and working on sites where no one speaks English. Lord knows what young workers are doing.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
It does you're right. But in aggregate the nation is better off. More capital to invest or lower prices for consumers but yes, in particular lower (and higher) skilled workers lose out.
Now of course there must be a balance and I am in favour of a debate and also sensible immigration controls but if you see the analogy with making, for example, cheap plastic toys, it becomes clear that it would not be optimal for the UK to revert or regress to being the cheap plastic toy making capital of the world. We are able (as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
so let me get this straight - the guy who wants to see less immigration and is a committed Kipper provides as far as I can remember the only actual concrete real life example on PB of how immigration has unambiguously benefited the indigenous population, electricians to boot, thereby confirming many of the studies on the subject but, I presume (?), remains anti-immigration.
The Lab PPC, meanwhile, writes how this (immigration benefiting the indigenous population) is not necessarily a good thing and that there are a lot of ifs and buts and so forths which mean that we shouldn't welcome this on-the-ground research and conclusion.
Right.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
Some of my friends have branched out into doing Audio Visual installation as it is more lucrative and less difficult, than standard electrician work. They may or may not have done this anyway, but these are people in their late 30s who have started their own company.
The others that are still working for a boss are competing for jobs with EU migrants on much lower pay than they got 5 or 6 years ago, and working on sites where no one speaks English. Lord knows what young workers are doing.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
It does you're right. But in aggregate the nation is better off. More capital to invest or lower prices for consumers but yes, in particular lower (and higher) skilled workers lose out.
Now of course there must be a balance and I am in favour of a debate and also sensible immigration controls but if you see the analogy with making, for example, cheap plastic toys, it becomes clear that it would not be optimal for the UK to revert or regress to being the cheap plastic toy making capital of the world. We are able (as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Unfortunately for betting purposes, the main three he names as possibly for the chop - Ken Clarke, Andrew Lansley and Sir George Young - are not technically in the cabinet. Nor is Baroness Warsi. We may well see little or no change in the cabinet proper before the election.
This must be the most stable cabinet for a very, very long time - an extraordinary contrast to Blair reshuffling ministers every other Thursday, presumably in order to ensure that they'd never have time to master the brief.
Yes. *One* of the criteria. Another one is current polling. They never said you had to do well in every one to be considered. Imagine a scenario where a newly formed party went to 80% in the polls. Even if you consider current polling were just one of the criteria, there's clearly a level where you get through on that criteria alone.
Past electoral support rather than opinion polling seems to be the main criterion, but feel free to write to them.
As I said, I don't personally have strong views on the matter, but I'm quite certain they won't change the rules at this late stage.
As regards the debates (a closely related issue but not quite the same one), my personal view is that there should be a PM candidate debate (Miliband vs Cameron in this case, designed to give viewers the opportunity to assess the individuals who might be PM after the election), and a party leaders' debate which of course would include the LibDems, the Greens and UKIP, and which might include the BNP if their polling were as strong as it was before the last election. That would be an opportunity for putting forward and debating alternative views.
However, ain't gonna happen. The LibDems would, not unreasonably from their point of view, fight it tooth and nail.
If there were multiple debates, I wouldn't mind one of them just being Cameron vs Miliband. It's UKIP's total exclusion from all of them that would be wrong.
Personally I favour a round-robin tournament of debates.
If that included all parties which received more than 1 million votes at the last GE, or had at least 1 MP at Westminster, or were consistently polling more than 10% of the vote, and were contesting more than half the seats this time round, that would probably include Con, Lab, Lib Dem, UKIP and Green, with Respect unlikely to be able to find the £175,000 to cover deposits in half the constituencies.
This would lead to ten debates, though you'd probably want to add a few for the Nationalist parties.
so let me get this straight - the guy who wants to see less immigration and is a committed Kipper provides as far as I can remember the only actual concrete real life example on PB of how immigration has unambiguously benefited the indigenous population, electricians to boot, thereby confirming many of the studies on the subject but, I presume (?), remains anti-immigration.
The Lab PPC, meanwhile, writes how this (immigration benefiting the indigenous population) is not necessarily a good thing and that there are a lot of ifs and buts and so forths which mean that we shouldn't welcome this on-the-ground research and conclusion.
Right.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
Some of my friends have branched out into doing Audio Visual installation as it is more lucrative and less difficult, than standard electrician work. They may or may not have done this anyway, but these are people in their late 30s who have started their own company.
The others that are still working for a boss are competing for jobs with EU migrants on much lower pay than they got 5 or 6 years ago, and working on sites where no one speaks English. Lord knows what young workers are doing.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
It does you're right. But in aggregate the nation is better off. More capital to invest or lower prices for consumers but yes, in particular lower (and higher) skilled workers lose out.
Now of course there must be a balance and I am in favour of a debate and also sensible immigration controls but if you see the analogy with making, for example, cheap plastic toys, it becomes clear that it would not be optimal for the UK to revert or regress to being the cheap plastic toy making capital of the world. We are able (as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Just about to go and do some work (after being suitably instructed in the ins and outs of feline liberation theory) but, if you don't mind the toys being not very cheap, Hornby have brought back some of the production of their plastic models, Humbrol paints, etc. to the UK from China/India. So production (or a bit of it_ has rejoined design in the UK, it would seem.
so let me get this straight - the guy who wants to see less immigration and is a committed Kipper provides as far as I can remember the only actual concrete real life example on PB of how immigration has unambiguously benefited the indigenous population, electricians to boot, thereby confirming many of the studies on the subject but, I presume (?), remains anti-immigration.
The Lab PPC, meanwhile, writes how this (immigration benefiting the indigenous population) is not necessarily a good thing and that there are a lot of ifs and buts and so forths which mean that we shouldn't welcome this on-the-ground research and conclusion.
Right.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
Some of my friends have branched out into doing Audio Visual installation as it is more lucrative and less difficult, than standard electrician work. They may or may not have done this anyway, but these are people in their late 30s who have started their own company.
The others that are still working for a boss are competing for jobs with EU migrants on much lower pay than they got 5 or 6 years ago, and working on sites where no one speaks English. Lord knows what young workers are doing.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
It does you're right. But in aggregate the nation is better off. More capital to invest or lower prices for consumers but yes, in particular lower (and higher) skilled workers lose out.
Now of course there must be a balance and I am in favour of a debate and also sensible immigration controls but if you see the analogy with making, for example, cheap plastic toys, it becomes clear that it would not be optimal for the UK to revert or regress to being the cheap plastic toy making capital of the world. We are able (as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can they ? This is just pseudo business school bollocks. The issue is not labour cost it's labour productivity. Lego is manufactured in Denmark which is hardly a low cost country. The myth of high value added manufacturing is simply a financiers way of saying pareto yourself out of existence. The correct solution is not to give up markets but to address competitiveness to stay in them.
It being a Friday afternoon I decided to take a break from trying to untangle Dr. Palmer's logic (it will not be a good thing for young Brits to get qualifications in trades but a six month make- work placement will be much better for their long term prospects) and look at the PB Diplomacy Games.
The death match is still in the initial negotiations phase, but PB2014 MK2 has just completed the Spring 1903 moves. I have to ask, what the feck is going on there, fellows? OK, Austria's position looks terminal and Russia seems to be entering the coughing up blood phase, but the rest looks like a furball. Any of the players want to provide a commentary as to what they think is going on?
I'm not sure if it's bad form to talk about the game but is it that odd a map?
England-Germany alliance against France, with France brilliantly putting a fleet in behind England (I may or may not be France). Italy taking a slice out of Austria as Turkey squeezes Russia out of the South and Russia taking Scandinavia while England and Germany are busy attacking France.
I'm willing to let the cats and songbirds battle it out for supremacy in the back garden.
I have been doing that for more than thirty years. So far the song birds seem to be holding their own pretty well. Just looked out of my study window and saw, tits, goldfinches, sparrows (house and tree variety), 3 pairs of blackbirds, a couple of robins (our normal one plus a mate of his that seems to have dropped in for tea) a pair of collar doves and a small flock of starlings - earlier on Mr. & Mrs Woodpecker stopped by for lunch but they have gone now. My cat doesn't seem to worry the birds one bit, mind you he is 17 now and not as spry as he used to be. He likes looking at the birds but gave up trying to chase them many years ago, his predecessors were the same.
The neighbour's cats occasionally get a wood-pigeon, but that's about it. They do a good job at keeping down mice and rats.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
Some of my friends have branched out into doing Audio Visual installation as it is more lucrative and less difficult, than standard electrician work. They may or may not have done this anyway, but these are people in their late 30s who have started their own company.
The others that are still working for a boss are competing for jobs with EU migrants on much lower pay than they got 5 or 6 years ago, and working on sites where no one speaks English. Lord knows what young workers are doing.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
It does you're right. But in aggregate the nation is better off. More capital to invest or lower prices for consumers but yes, in particular lower (and higher) skilled workers lose out.
Now of course there must be a balance and I am in favour of a debate and also sensible immigration controls but if you see the analogy with making, for example, cheap plastic toys, it becomes clear that it would not be optimal for the UK to revert or regress to being the cheap plastic toy making capital of the world. We are able (as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can they ? This is just pseudo business school bollocks. The issue is not labour cost it's labour productivity. Lego is manufactured in Denmark which is hardly a low cost country. The myth of high value added manufacturing is simply a financiers way of saying pareto yourself out of existence. The correct solution is not to give up markets but to address competitiveness to stay in them.
very funny.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
Personally wouldn't feel I have the right to kill any living creature.
So there should be a law against destroying wasps' nests on your property? Or should only the most fluffy forms of vermin be worthy of legal protection?
Maybe laws against killing other peoples pets, and as far as I know nobody keep pet wasps.
But you obviously want an argument on this and I don't really want to try and convince you. If you dont like cats, and think its ok to kill other peoples pets if they enter your property I cant stop you. Just saying that I don't feel I have the right to kill living creatures, especially not mammals, who I think are worth more than insects
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
Some of my friends have branched out into doing Audio Visual installation as it is more lucrative and less difficult, than standard electrician work. They may or may not have done this anyway, but these are people in their late 30s who have started their own company.
The others that are still working for a boss are competing for jobs with EU migrants on much lower pay than they got 5 or 6 years ago, and working on sites where no one speaks English. Lord knows what young workers are doing.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
It does you're right. But in aggregate the nation is better off. More capital to invest or lower prices for consumers but yes, in particular lower (and higher) skilled workers lose out.
Now of course there must be a balance and I am in favour of a debate and also sensible immigration controls but if you see the analogy with making, for example, cheap plastic toys, it becomes clear that it would not be optimal for the UK to revert or regress to being the cheap plastic toy making capital of the world. We are able (as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can they ? This is just pseudo business school bollocks. The issue is not labour cost it's labour productivity. Lego is manufactured in Denmark which is hardly a low cost country. The myth of high value added manufacturing is simply a financiers way of saying pareto yourself out of existence. The correct solution is not to give up markets but to address competitiveness to stay in them.
Iirc Lego actually manufacture to quite a high standard, in order to have the bricks at the right stiffness/flexibility to grip each other properly.
The man at the ONS said this:"As a percentage of GDP, the current account deficits over recent quarters represent some of the largest on record. However, relatively little of this is due to deteriorating net trade. Most of the decline stems from falling income from UK assets overseas, compared with income from foreign-owned assets in the UK"It looks like we have been financing our spending by selling assets off to foreigners, which is leading us to have to send more money abroad to pay these new owners.
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good.
The point I made in my earlier post (on the previous thread?) also to Alanbrooke. The comment to which you have replied is not related to the current account/BoP issue, although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine)..
Not objecting, just clarifying.
But on the current account issue we need to separate out the capital flows and investment/divestment figures from the income/expense flows. The former flows tend to be volatile and the transactions non-recurring which means a longer view and more detailed analysis is needed. A single capital transaction can, for example, dominate a single period's figures (Vodafone's US divestment being a recent positive example).
When you look at the underlying current flows the trade picture is improving from a poor starting point.
On the capital side, we have to accept that in a period of forced government, enterprise and household deleveraging we will be dependent for some time on net foreign inflows of investment. This is not necessarily bad for the economy and, if the UK government is successful in reaching its fiscal consolidation and rebalancing goals, should reverse over the long term. But we need to be thinking mid 2020s here not next year!
In the meantime let's welcome in the foreign direct investment of the Chinese and petrochemical countries.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
Some of my friends have branched out into doing Audio Visual installation as it is more lucrative and less difficult, than standard electrician work. They may or may not have done this anyway, but these are people in their late 30s who have started their own company.
The others that are still working for a boss are competing for jobs with EU migrants on much lower pay than they got 5 or 6 years ago, and working on sites where no one speaks English. Lord knows what young workers are doing.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
(as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can they ? This is just pseudo business school bollocks. The issue is not labour cost it's labour productivity. Lego is manufactured in Denmark which is hardly a low cost country. The myth of high value added manufacturing is simply a financiers way of saying pareto yourself out of existence. The correct solution is not to give up markets but to address competitiveness to stay in them.
very funny.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
There is no simple panacea for our ills it's taken 30 odd years to get in the crap and will take the same to get out again. As I have pointed out many times our BoP problem is not primarily as a result of low cost competition. Our biggest deficit is with Europe from which we import medium tech products ( cars, fridges etc ) from medium and high cost countries. It has very little to do with labour cost. Our biggest deficit is with Germany which has higher Labour costs than we do.
"you have to report a dog if you run it over in your car but not a cat or something like that. "
Horse, cattle, ass, mule, sheep. pig, goat, dog were, if memory serves, the animals that used to make an accident reportable. Hit one of those and you had to stop and give you name and address to its owner or report to the police if you couldn't. Why those animals and not, say, llamas? Well animals in that list were farm animals which were held to have monetary value. Mind, I am going back more than forty years so it all might have changed by now, maybe llamas and alpacas are now in the list.
Deer ain't though, you can hit a deer and write your car, or even yourself, off and the police will not want to know. The coroner will if there is a fatality but other than that its not a police matter. I would wager a modest sum that more people are injured by vehicles colliding with deer than contract toxomatwhatsits from domestic animal faeces mentioned below.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
(as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can they ? This is just pseudo business school bollocks. The issue is not labour cost it's labour productivity. Lego is manufactured in Denmark which is hardly a low cost country. The myth of high value added manufacturing is simply a financiers way of saying pareto yourself out of existence. The correct solution is not to give up markets but to address competitiveness to stay in them.
very funny.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
There is no simple panacea for our ills it's taken 30 odd years to get in the crap and will take the same to get out again. As I have pointed out many times our BoP problem is not primarily as a result of low cost competition. Our biggest deficit is with Europe from which we import medium tech products ( cars, fridges etc ) from medium and high cost countries. It has very little to do with labour cost. Our biggest deficit is with Germany which has higher Labour costs than we do.
I don't disagree but we started this conversation because @Sam was worried about immigration disadvantaging the native low-skilled workforce (which it does) and I pointed out that it advantaged the nation as a whole, in particualr owners of capital and thereby consumers and workers who might be employed as a result of capital investment.
I also said that the analogy is with the import of cheap plastic toys as an example of where we shouldn't be heading and now you're talking about German fridges.
"Farage has framed the 2015 election as a straight choice between his plucky band of insurgents, and the Lib-Lab-Con curators of the Westminster status quo. He’s right, it is. And when people vote in that election they will endorse the status quo, and reject the insurgents.
The polls are quite clear about this. Ukip are currently averaging 12 per cent. At an election they will be fortunate to get half that figure. And at that point they will be revealed for what are. An historical and psephological curiosity, not a political earthquake."
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
(as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can they ? This is just pseudo business school bollocks. The issue is not labour cost it's labour productivity. Lego is manufactured in Denmark which is hardly a low cost country. The myth of high value added manufacturing is simply a financiers way of saying pareto yourself out of existence. The correct solution is not to give up markets but to address competitiveness to stay in them.
very funny.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
There is no simple panacea for our ills it's taken 30 odd years to get in the crap and will take the same to get out again. As I have pointed out many times our BoP problem is not primarily as a result of low cost competition. Our biggest deficit is with Europe from which we import medium tech products ( cars, fridges etc ) from medium and high cost countries. It has very little to do with labour cost. Our biggest deficit is with Germany which has higher Labour costs than we do.
I don't disagree but we started this conversation because @Sam was worried about immigration disadvantaging the native low-skilled workforce (which it does) and I pointed out that it advantaged the nation as a whole, in particualr owners of capital and thereby consumers and workers who might be employed as a result of capital investment.
I also said that the analogy is with the import of cheap plastic toys as an example of where we shouldn't be heading and now you're talking about German fridges.
Another way of putting it is that mass uncontrolled immigration is a stealth tax on the poor, and a tax break for the rich
WTF! That is an astonishing, depressing, mesmeric, gobsmacking, horrific, unfathomable statistic. OK some lefties will vote Labour whoever's leading. I get that. But Miliband? Personally? PM suitable? 29%? I truly have nothing in common with millions of my countrymen.
I am not a destroyer of Energy companies. I am a liberator of them! The point is, ladies and gentleman, that Ed, for lack of a better word, is good. Ed is right, Ed works. Ed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the (R)evolutionary spirit. Ed, in all of his forms; Ed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Ed, you mark my words, will not only save the Labour Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
Can we stop this now? It has run its course, it was mildly amusing, the first four hundred times, as was the goalpost riff from Compouter, but nowboth are well past their sell by date. Thanks
When you look at the underlying current flows the trade picture is improving from a poor starting point.
On the capital side, we have to accept that in a period of forced government, enterprise and household deleveraging we will be dependent for some time on net foreign inflows of investment. This is not necessarily bad for the economy and, if the UK government is successful in reaching its fiscal consolidation and rebalancing goals, should reverse over the long term. But we need to be thinking mid 2020s here not next year!
In the meantime let's welcome in the foreign direct investment of the Chinese and petrochemical countries.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
(as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can they ? This is just pseudo business school bollocks. The issue is not labour cost it's labour productivity. Lego is manufactured in Denmark which is hardly a low cost country. The myth of high value added manufacturing is simply a financiers way of saying pareto yourself out of existence. The correct solution is not to give up markets but to address competitiveness to stay in them.
very funny.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
medium and high cost countries. It has very little to do with labour cost. Our biggest deficit is with Germany which has higher Labour costs than we do.
be heading and now you're talking about German fridges.
Another way of putting it is that mass uncontrolled immigration is a stealth tax on the poor, and a tax break for the rich
Too broad a brush. You are regressing to your old socialist habits.
Consumers can be poor who might benefit from lower prices stemming from lower cost factor inputs; other workers who might be poor and some of them even indigenous might benefit from the new factory (making fridges!) that the owner of the capital now is able to invest in..
But yes your point about lower-skilled native workers is valid. They are, however, a sub-set of the nation as a whole, not to dismiss their very real concerns.
And of course this all started because you gave a textbook example of a native population adapting, to their own benefit, to immigration.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
(as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can they ? This is just pseudo business school bollocks. The issue is not labour cost it's labour productivity. Lego is manufactured in Denmark which is hardly a low cost country. The myth of high value added manufacturing is simply a financiers way of saying pareto yourself out of existence. The correct solution is not to give up markets but to address competitiveness to stay in them.
very funny.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
There is no simple panacea for our ills it's taken 30 odd years to get in the crap and will take the same to get out again. As I have pointed out many times our BoP problem is not primarily as a result of low cost competition. Our biggest deficit is with Europe from which we import medium tech products ( cars, fridges etc ) from medium and high cost countries. It has very little to do with labour cost. Our biggest deficit is with Germany which has higher Labour costs than we do.
I don't disagree but we started this conversation because @Sam was worried about immigration disadvantaging the native low-skilled workforce (which it does) and I pointed out that it advantaged the nation as a whole, in particualr owners of capital and thereby consumers and workers who might be employed as a result of capital investment.
I also said that the analogy is with the import of cheap plastic toys as an example of where we shouldn't be heading and now you're talking about German fridges.
I can talk about German plastic toys if you prefer. Playmobil is made in Germany and does quite nicely.
It being a Friday afternoon I decided to take a break from trying to untangle Dr. Palmer's logic (it will not be a good thing for young Brits to get qualifications in trades but a six month make- work placement will be much better for their long term prospects) and look at the PB Diplomacy Games.
The death match is still in the initial negotiations phase, but PB2014 MK2 has just completed the Spring 1903 moves. I have to ask, what the feck is going on there, fellows? OK, Austria's position looks terminal and Russia seems to be entering the coughing up blood phase, but the rest looks like a furball. Any of the players want to provide a commentary as to what they think is going on?
I'm not sure if it's bad form to talk about the game but is it that odd a map?
England-Germany alliance against France, with France brilliantly putting a fleet in behind England (I may or may not be France). Italy taking a slice out of Austria as Turkey squeezes Russia out of the South and Russia taking Scandinavia while England and Germany are busy attacking France.
Thanks for that. So its an Anglo-German alliance against France, I never would have guessed.
P.S. Sorry about the "Corporal" misspelling the other day. Bit of a gaff on my part.
That is actually a very useful analysis, not because of the headline forecast, but because it reminds us of just how uncertain the election result is, at this stage in the electoral cycle.
People tend to look at the current polling and perhaps adjust it a bit depending on their gut feel. The mistake they often make is to assume that nothing much else is likely to change. What Stephen Fisher's analysis shows is that (assuming he's done his work diligently), we can't really tell too much yet; based on past elections, if we are looking simply at opinion polls, we should not be surprised if the polling shifts substantially in the course of the next year.
Note his 95% confidence limits: Con vote share between 29% and 46%, and seats between 221 and 418.
Ridiculously wide, you might think. But that is the whole point.
WTF! That is an astonishing, depressing, mesmeric, gobsmacking, horrific, unfathomable statistic. OK some lefties will vote Labour whoever's leading. I get that. But Miliband? Personally? PM suitable? 29%? I truly have nothing in common with millions of my countrymen.
I am not a destroyer of Energy companies. I am a liberator of them! The point is, ladies and gentleman, that Ed, for lack of a better word, is good. Ed is right, Ed works. Ed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the (R)evolutionary spirit. Ed, in all of his forms; Ed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Ed, you mark my words, will not only save the Labour Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
Can we stop this now? It has run its course, it was mildly amusing, the first four hundred times, as was the goalpost riff from Compouter, but nowboth are well past their sell by date. Thanks
(as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can they ? This is just pseudo business school bollocks. The issue is not labour cost it's labour productivity. Lego is manufactured in Denmark which is hardly a low cost country. The myth of high value added manufacturing is simply a financiers way of saying pareto yourself out of existence. The correct solution is not to give up markets but to address competitiveness to stay in them.
very funny.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
medium and high cost countries. It has very little to do with labour cost. Our biggest deficit is with Germany which has higher Labour costs than we do.
be heading and now you're talking about German fridges.
Another way of putting it is that mass uncontrolled immigration is a stealth tax on the poor, and a tax break for the rich
Too broad a brush. You are regressing to your old socialist habits.
Consumers can be poor who might benefit from lower prices stemming from lower cost factor inputs; other workers who might be poor and some of them even indigenous might benefit from the new factory (making fridges!) that the owner of the capital now is able to invest in..
But yes your point about lower-skilled native workers is valid. They are, however, a sub-set of the nation as a whole, not to dismiss their very real concerns.
And of course this all started because you gave a textbook example of a native population adapting, to their own benefit, to immigration.
Haha
Yes, some people I know have moved on to better thing, possibly on the back of being undercut in their original field but I would say these are the few not the many
The man at the ONS said this:"As a percentage of GDP, the current account deficits over recent quarters represent some of the largest on record. However, relatively little of this is due to deteriorating net trade. Most of the decline stems from falling income from UK assets overseas, compared with income from foreign-owned assets in the UK"
It looks like we have been financing our spending by selling assets off to foreigners, which is leading us to have to send more money abroad to pay these new owners.
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good.
The point I made in my earlier post (on the previous thread?) also to Alanbrooke. The comment to which you have replied is not related to the current account/BoP issue, although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine)..
Not objecting, just clarifying.
But on the current account issue we need to separate out the capital flows and investment/divestment figures from the income/expense flows. The former flows tend to be volatile and the transactions non-recurring which means a longer view and more detailed analysis is needed. A single capital transaction can, for example, dominate a single period's figures (Vodafone's US divestment being a recent positive example).
When you look at the underlying current flows the trade picture is improving from a poor starting point.
On the capital side, we have to accept that in a period of forced government, enterprise and household deleveraging we will be dependent for some time on net foreign inflows of investment. This is not necessarily bad for the economy and, if the UK government is successful in reaching its fiscal consolidation and rebalancing goals, should reverse over the long term. But we need to be thinking mid 2020s here not next year!
In the meantime let's welcome in the foreign direct investment of the Chinese and petrochemical countries.
" although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine).."
Mr Pole I most definitely did not have my tongue in your cheek. You are reminiscing on your louche Oxford days once again; as for which of your cheeks were freely available, I'd rather not speculate on a family blog.
"you have to report a dog if you run it over in your car but not a cat or something like that. "
Horse, cattle, ass, mule, sheep. pig, goat, dog were, if memory serves, the animals that used to make an accident reportable. Hit one of those and you had to stop and give you name and address to its owner or report to the police if you couldn't. Why those animals and not, say, llamas? Well animals in that list were farm animals which were held to have monetary value. Mind, I am going back more than forty years so it all might have changed by now, maybe llamas and alpacas are now in the list.
Deer ain't though, you can hit a deer and write your car, or even yourself, off and the police will not want to know. The coroner will if there is a fatality but other than that its not a police matter. I would wager a modest sum that more people are injured by vehicles colliding with deer than contract toxomatwhatsits from domestic animal faeces mentioned below.
Thanks - and I agree it is quite unfair to camelids [edit: if] the law has not been changed.
Actually quite a few people in the UK who have signs of catching toxoplasmosis for one thing, something of the order of a third on checking. The overt/acute form of the disease is much rarer. However, it's not negligible in incidence. Besides, the hidden effects of being a carrier are causing a deal of concern at the moment - early days yet but it could become a major factor in how we regard uncontrolled cats etc.
On deer and cars, quite so, having had a near miss myself. I also heard an awful story from an Australian once about her brother running into a kangaroo - the mortally injured beast crashed through the windscreen and kept kicking and kicking with its sharp hooves. I don' think he was in much better shape when he was got out. No wonder Aussie lorries in the outback have those huge roo bars on the front.
(OT) My brother-in-law in Canada found a picture of me on the Guardian website 12 hours after I emailed the link to my sister, despite my dozy sister forgetting to tell him.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
(as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can th them.
very funny.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
There is no simple panacea foy which has higher Labour costs than we do.
I don't disagree but we started this conversation because @Sam was worried about immigration disadvantaging the native low-skilled workforce (which it does) and I pointed out that it advantaged the nation as a whole, in particualr owners of capital and thereby consumers and workers who might be employed as a result of capital investment.
I also said that the analogy is with the import of cheap plastic toys as an example of where we shouldn't be heading and now you're talking about German fridges.
I can talk about German plastic toys if you prefer. Playmobil is made in Germany and does quite nicely.
Yes that's right my point is that no plastic toys whatsoever are allowed to be made in developed countries.
I have also imagined the transfer of cheaper production to lower-cost economies (and even China is getting quite spenny) by manufacturers.
You have successfully repealed the law of comparative advantage (or "pseudo business school bollocks as I'm sure you would call it).
Good news for those with Q1 bets on PaddyPower's cross-over market
It's been confirmed to me that as well as the Sunday Times survey being included in Q1 so too will the Sun poll on Monday night. So two more chances.
A tense weekend!
I am one of "those" but am not expecting to collect, although the probability of crossover on a per poll basis is likely to be at its highest over the next two polls.
I think Sir Roderick has it right in going for May as the time when we will see consistent crossed over polling. It will be the April payslips wot does it.
That is actually a very useful analysis, not because of the headline forecast, but because it reminds us of just how uncertain the election result is, at this stage in the electoral cycle.
People tend to look at the current polling and perhaps adjust it a bit depending on their gut feel. The mistake they often make is to assume that nothing much else is likely to change. What Stephen Fisher's analysis shows is that (assuming he's done his work diligently), we can't really tell too much yet; based on past elections, if we are looking simply at opinion polls, we should not be surprised if the polling shifts substantially in the course of the next year.
Note his 95% confidence limits: Con vote share between 29% and 46%, and seats between 221 and 418.
Ridiculously wide, you might think. But that is the whole point.
Scotland 'could vote for independence unless pro-UK campaign improves' - Scottish Lib Dem leader says anti-independence campaigners must be more positive about UK's strengths
"I think there's a possibility Scotland could be independent in September. I think there's a distinct possibility," Rennie told BBC Scotland. "That's why we need to focus really hard on what that means."
Rennie said the pro-UK campaign needed to switch emphasis from the negatives of independence to pursue a strategy that emphasises the positives of the UK. "We want to talk more about those things and less about the 'ah, buts'," he said.
"I'm hoping that Better Together [the pro-UK campaign] will embrace that sunshine strategy over the coming months. People need to know that there's something great about the United Kingdom. We need to remind them what that is."
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
(as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can th them.
very funny.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
There is no simple panacea foy which has higher Labour costs than we do.
I don't disagree but we started this conversation because @Sam was worried about immigration disadvantaging the native low-skilled workforce (which it does) and I pointed out that it advantaged the nation as a whole, in particualr owners of capital and thereby consumers and workers who might be employed as a result of capital investment.
I also said that the analogy is with the import of cheap plastic toys as an example of where we shouldn't be heading and now you're talking about German fridges.
I can talk about German plastic toys if you prefer. Playmobil is made in Germany and does quite nicely.
I have also imagined the transfer of cheaper production to lower-cost economies (and even China is getting quite spenny) by manufacturers.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
(as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
What's wrong with making cheap plastic toys ?
Nothing at all but people in China can make them much more cheaply than we can so for us we couldn't compete plus our education level means we should be aiming at much higher value-added manufacturing.
Can th them.
very funny.
Of course we can add
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
There is no simple panacea foy which has higher Labour costs than we do.
I also said that the analogy is with the import of cheap plastic toys as an example of where we shouldn't be heading and now you're talking about German fridges.
I can talk about German plastic toys if you prefer. Playmobil is made in Germany and does quite nicely.
Yes that's right my point is that no plastic toys whatsoever are allowed to be made in developed countries.
I have also imagined the transfer of cheaper production to lower-cost economies (and even China is getting quite spenny) by manufacturers.
You have successfully repealed the law of comparative advantage (or "pseudo business school bollocks as I'm sure you would call it).
well in the world of BS bollocks you have yet to prove where the UK has a competitive disadvantage in manufacturing so that we should pull out of markets. The major disadvantages it suffers are a patchily trained workforce, it's financial sector and a weak environment for capital investment. But lots of other countries have those and don't have som of the advantages we have such as better labour flexibility, a comparatively open market and a low level of corruption. My objection to your earlier statement is really it's the kind of unthinking nonsense which is forever repeated about low labour costs and "higher value added". Most manufacturing employers are neither at the low labour cost end or the high VA end and yet they function quite happily if they know their customers.
Good news for those with Q1 bets on PaddyPower's cross-over market
It's been confirmed to me that as well as the Sunday Times survey being included in Q1 so too will the Sun poll on Monday night. So two more chances.
A tense weekend!
I am one of "those" but am not expecting to collect, although the probability of crossover on a per poll basis is likely to be at its highest over the next two polls.
I think Sir Roderick has it right in going for May as the time when we will see consistent crossed over polling. It will be the April payslips wot does it.
No, it will be a victorious summer of cricket which will do it. I am sticking with my prediction made on here months ago that our triumph in the Lords Test in June will herald the crossover.
The man at the ONS said this:"As a percentage of GDP, the current account deficits over recent quarters represent some of the largest on record. However, relatively little of this is due to deteriorating net trade. Most of the decline stems from falling income from UK assets overseas, compared with income from foreign-owned assets in the UK"
It looks like we have been financing our spending by selling assets off to foreigners, which is leading us to have to send more money abroad to pay these new owners.
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good.
The point I made in my earlier post (on the previous thread?) also to Alanbrooke. The comment to which you have replied is not related to the current account/BoP issue, although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine)..
Not objecting, just clarifying.
But on the current account issue we need to separate out the capital flows and investment/divestment figures from the income/expense flows. The former flows tend to be volatile and the transactions non-recurring which means a longer view and more detailed analysis is needed. A single capital transaction can, for example, dominate a single period's figures (Vodafone's US divestment being a recent positive example).
When you look at the underlying current flows the trade picture is improving from a poor starting point.
On the capital side, we have to accept that in a period of forced government, enterprise and household deleveraging we will be dependent for some time on net foreign inflows of investment. This is not necessarily bad for the economy and, if the UK government is successful in reaching its fiscal consolidation and rebalancing goals, should reverse over the long term. But we need to be thinking mid 2020s here not next year!
In the meantime let's welcome in the foreign direct investment of the Chinese and petrochemical countries.
" although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine).."
Mr Pole I most definitely did not have my tongue in your cheek. You are reminiscing on your louche Oxford days once again; as for which of your cheeks were freely available, I'd rather not speculate on a family blog.
Salmond landed, Mr. Brooke!
Those weeks I spent fishing in Northern Iceland financed by Landsbanki have stood me in great stead for my latter day blogging.
That is actually a very useful analysis, not because of the headline forecast, but because it reminds us of just how uncertain the election result is, at this stage in the electoral cycle.
People tend to look at the current polling and perhaps adjust it a bit depending on their gut feel. The mistake they often make is to assume that nothing much else is likely to change. What Stephen Fisher's analysis shows is that (assuming he's done his work diligently), we can't really tell too much yet; based on past elections, if we are looking simply at opinion polls, we should not be surprised if the polling shifts substantially in the course of the next year.
Note his 95% confidence limits: Con vote share between 29% and 46%, and seats between 221 and 418.
Ridiculously wide, you might think. But that is the whole point.
He's giving Cons more seats than Jack's ARSE.
There was one part of Nate Silver's analysis I always questioned; but alas when I met him I did not have a chance to ask. If you make a prediction with confidence limits that accounts for movement before the election - the difference between a nowcast and forecast, if you will - then the band should only ever narrow, barring exceptional circumstances.
"It looks like we have been financing our spending by selling assets off to foreigners, which is leading us to have to send more money abroad to pay these new owners.
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good."
Huzzah! Someone has made the point that has been troubling me for some years. All this foreign investment, which we are supposed to not only welcome but actually go out and seek, often consists of foreign companies buying up our industries and infrastructure, hollowing them out (IP and production facilities taken away) and taking any profits off-shore . Why this should be seen as a good thing is quite beyond me.
It being a Friday afternoon I decided to take a break from trying to untangle Dr. Palmer's logic (it will not be a good thing for young Brits to get qualifications in trades but a six month make- work placement will be much better for their long term prospects) and look at the PB Diplomacy Games.
The death match is still in the initial negotiations phase, but PB2014 MK2 has just completed the Spring 1903 moves. I have to ask, what the feck is going on there, fellows? OK, Austria's position looks terminal and Russia seems to be entering the coughing up blood phase, but the rest looks like a furball. Any of the players want to provide a commentary as to what they think is going on?
I'm not sure if it's bad form to talk about the game but is it that odd a map?
England-Germany alliance against France, with France brilliantly putting a fleet in behind England (I may or may not be France). Italy taking a slice out of Austria as Turkey squeezes Russia out of the South and Russia taking Scandinavia while England and Germany are busy attacking France.
Thanks for that. So its an Anglo-German alliance against France, I never would have guessed.
P.S. Sorry about the "Corporal" misspelling the other day. Bit of a gaff on my part.
I suppose it's more obvious if you've seen the preceding moves where they've supported each other etc. I have faith in my ability to convince them to simultaneously retreat and never enter France again.
P.S.
That's fine HorseLlama, I'll take it as a Napoleonic comparison but you could make it at least lieutenant next time.
" although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine).."
Mr Pole I most definitely did not have my tongue in your cheek. You are reminiscing on your louche Oxford days once again; as for which of your cheeks were freely available, I'd rather not speculate on a family blog.
Salmond landed, Mr. Brooke!
Those weeks I spent fishing in Northern Iceland financed by Landsbanki have stood me in great stead for my latter day blogging.
Such a shame the bank failed.
Mr Pole it didn't "fail" it was a success like RBS and HBOS. I shall now have to ask some of the Landsbanki people why they never took me fishing.
Good news for those with Q1 bets on PaddyPower's cross-over market
It's been confirmed to me that as well as the Sunday Times survey being included in Q1 so too will the Sun poll on Monday night. So two more chances.
A tense weekend!
I am one of "those" but am not expecting to collect, although the probability of crossover on a per poll basis is likely to be at its highest over the next two polls.
I think Sir Roderick has it right in going for May as the time when we will see consistent crossed over polling. It will be the April payslips wot does it.
No, it will be a victorious summer of cricket which will do it. I am sticking with my prediction made on here months ago that our triumph in the Lords Test in June will herald the crossover.
Geoff
I was thinking of you this morning when contemplating the welcome but surprise arrival of Sir Joshua Reynolds on PB.
I can talk about German plastic toys if you prefer. Playmobil is made in Germany and does quite nicely.
There's a good book about Lego that's just been published. I've only read the summary, but it's on my wishlist once I have more shelf space (just building some more shelves...)
They realised 10 years ago that they couldn't compete with buckets of plastic blocks produced in China. That's why they are focused on branding and characters these days - someone was complaining a few weeks ago (I think on here!) about there being some characters aimed at girls (Lego Friends) and some aimed at boys, etc.
Essentially they are trying to create IP that will enable them to charge a premium price. If they can do that, then labour cost is only a small part of the overall calculation so you don't need to move everything to China.
Making unbranded cheap plastic toys is not a sensible strategy for the UK economy as a whole. IP and design is - and then, ideally, keep the manufacturing onshore where possible.
Edit: no problem with cats per se at all - just the way people let them roam free wherever they like. Dogs aren';t allowed to do that so why cats? You'd call the council dog warden to deal with stray dogs.
Q. How do you make a cat go woof? A. Pour petrol on it and chuck it on the fire.
"It looks like we have been financing our spending by selling assets off to foreigners, which is leading us to have to send more money abroad to pay these new owners.
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good."
Huzzah! Someone has made the point that has been troubling me for some years. All this foreign investment, which we are supposed to not only welcome but actually go out and seek, often consists of foreign companies buying up our industries and infrastructure, hollowing them out (IP and production facilities taken away) and taking any profits off-shore . Why this should be seen as a good thing is quite beyond me.
Mr Llama you are only showing your ignorance of Interational capital flows old chap.
The silly chinese are investing in low value revenue generating projects like energy which do oldfashioned things like generate cash and pay a dividend. UK institutions are more sophisticated and target high yield projects like Irish property or Ninja loans. I hope that's helped.
Good news for those with Q1 bets on PaddyPower's cross-over market
It's been confirmed to me that as well as the Sunday Times survey being included in Q1 so too will the Sun poll on Monday night. So two more chances.
A tense weekend!
I am one of "those" but am not expecting to collect, although the probability of crossover on a per poll basis is likely to be at its highest over the next two polls.
I think Sir Roderick has it right in going for May as the time when we will see consistent crossed over polling. It will be the April payslips wot does it.
No, it will be a victorious summer of cricket which will do it. I am sticking with my prediction made on here months ago that our triumph in the Lords Test in June will herald the crossover.
Geoff
I was thinking of you this morning when contemplating the welcome but surprise arrival of Sir Joshua Reynolds on PB.
I can talk about German plastic toys if you prefer. Playmobil is made in Germany and does quite nicely.
There's a good book about Lego that's just been published. I've only read the summary, but it's on my wishlist once I have more shelf space (just building some more shelves...)
They realised 10 years ago that they couldn't compete with buckets of plastic blocks produced in China. That's why they are focused on branding and characters these days - someone was complaining a few weeks ago (I think on here!) about there being some characters aimed at girls (Lego Friends) and some aimed at boys, etc.
Essentially they are trying to create IP that will enable them to charge a premium price. If they can do that, then labour cost is only a small part of the overall calculation so you don't need to move everything to China.
Making unbranded cheap plastic toys is not a sensible strategy for the UK economy as a whole. IP and design is - and then, ideally, keep the manufacturing onshore where possible.
Yes Charles it's know your customers and control your costs. I can't help but laugh in the automotive sector as all the companies that rushed to offshore in the noughties are now desperate to onshore since the communication costs are higher, the quality patchy, exchange rates dodgy and transport costs have rocketed. It simply showed companies didn't understand the costs before they moved work.
It being a Friday afternoon I decided to take a break from trying to untangle Dr. Palmer's logic (it will not be a good thing for young Brits to get qualifications in trades but a six month make- work placement will be much better for their long term prospects) and look at the PB Diplomacy Games.
The death match is still in the initial negotiations phase, but PB2014 MK2 has just completed the Spring 1903 moves. I have to ask, what the feck is going on there, fellows? OK, Austria's position looks terminal and Russia seems to be entering the coughing up blood phase, but the rest looks like a furball. Any of the players want to provide a commentary as to what they think is going on?
I'm not sure if it's bad form to talk about the game but is it that odd a map?
England-Germany alliance against France, with France brilliantly putting a fleet in behind England (I may or may not be France). Italy taking a slice out of Austria as Turkey squeezes Russia out of the South and Russia taking Scandinavia while England and Germany are busy attacking France.
Thanks for that. So its an Anglo-German alliance against France, I never would have guessed.
P.S. Sorry about the "Corporal" misspelling the other day. Bit of a gaff on my part.
I suppose it's more obvious if you've seen the preceding moves where they've supported each other etc. I have faith in my ability to convince them to simultaneously retreat and never enter France again.
P.S.
That's fine HorseLlama, I'll take it as a Napoleonic comparison but you could make it at least lieutenant next time.
Fair go, lieutenant, and France, whoever that is, has a nice line on Liverpool. Of course, they seem to have a problem with MAO being wide open to the English Fleet in the channel and may have a little difficulty in freeing up Brest this coming turn for the build of the second fleet that they really, really do need. Still diplomacy can might light of a lot of problems.
One problem that I can't see it solving is the clash that is going to come between Italy and Turkey once Austria has gone down and Russia shooed away. I think I shall lay in a stock of pop-corn for that one.
That is actually a very useful analysis, not because of the headline forecast, but because it reminds us of just how uncertain the election result is, at this stage in the electoral cycle.
People tend to look at the current polling and perhaps adjust it a bit depending on their gut feel. The mistake they often make is to assume that nothing much else is likely to change. What Stephen Fisher's analysis shows is that (assuming he's done his work diligently), we can't really tell too much yet; based on past elections, if we are looking simply at opinion polls, we should not be surprised if the polling shifts substantially in the course of the next year.
Note his 95% confidence limits: Con vote share between 29% and 46%, and seats between 221 and 418.
Ridiculously wide, you might think. But that is the whole point.
Reminds me of the BBC's 1987 election exit poll, which ranged from Conservatives short by 17 to a majority of 86. Exceedingly useful. Not.
I can talk about German plastic toys if you prefer. Playmobil is made in Germany and does quite nicely.
There's a good book about Lego that's just been published. I've only read the summary, but it's on my wishlist once I have more shelf space (just building some more shelves...)
They realised 10 years ago that they couldn't compete with buckets of plastic blocks produced in China. That's why they are focused on branding and characters these days - someone was complaining a few weeks ago (I think on here!) about there being some characters aimed at girls (Lego Friends) and some aimed at boys, etc.
Essentially they are trying to create IP that will enable them to charge a premium price. If they can do that, then labour cost is only a small part of the overall calculation so you don't need to move everything to China.
Making unbranded cheap plastic toys is not a sensible strategy for the UK economy as a whole. IP and design is - and then, ideally, keep the manufacturing onshore where possible.
Yes Charles it's know your customers and control your costs. I can't help but laugh in the automotive sector as all the companies that rushed to offshore in the noughties are now desperate to onshore since the communication costs are higher, the quality patchy, exchange rates dodgy and transport costs have rocketed. It simply showed companies didn't understand the costs before they moved work.
Hmmh. With a little more spit and polish you might shape up into a sensible businessman, Mr Brooke.
I can talk about German plastic toys if you prefer. Playmobil is made in Germany and does quite nicely.
There's a good book about Lego that's just been published. I've only read the summary, but it's on my wishlist once I have more shelf space (just building some more shelves...)
They realised 10 years ago that they couldn't compete with buckets of plastic blocks produced in China. That's why they are focused on branding and characters these days - someone was complaining a few weeks ago (I think on here!) about there being some characters aimed at girls (Lego Friends) and some aimed at boys, etc.
Essentially they are trying to create IP that will enable them to charge a premium price. If they can do that, then labour cost is only a small part of the overall calculation so you don't need to move everything to China.
Making unbranded cheap plastic toys is not a sensible strategy for the UK economy as a whole. IP and design is - and then, ideally, keep the manufacturing onshore where possible.
Yes Charles it's know your customers and control your costs. I can't help but laugh in the automotive sector as all the companies that rushed to offshore in the noughties are now desperate to onshore since the communication costs are higher, the quality patchy, exchange rates dodgy and transport costs have rocketed. It simply showed companies didn't understand the costs before they moved work.
Hmmh. With a little more spit and polish you might shape up into a sensible businessman, Mr Brooke.
" With a little more spit and polish you might shape up into a sensible businessman, Mr Brooke."
Mr. Charles, You are aware that Mr. Brooke is an Ulsterman now living in the Midlands? Spit and polish may not be concepts with which he is familiar. His wife though, I think, is from Sussex (at least, if memory serves, she once worked in Horsham), so all hope is not necessarily lost.
" With a little more spit and polish you might shape up into a sensible businessman, Mr Brooke."
Mr. Charles, You are aware that Mr. Brooke is an Ulsterman now living in the Midlands? Spit and polish may not be concepts with which he is familiar. His wife though, I think, is from Sussex (at least, if memory serves, she once worked in Horsham), so all hope is not necessarily lost.
Mr Llama Mrs B is also a Midlander but spent several years in Horsham. And since we are on hols next week in Kent we may well drive past your door as we make our way to some of her old haunts. I am of course hoping for some decent local cider from Kent, anything you would recommend ? Otherwise it's just Sussex fizz ;-)
'Coughing up blood', Mr. Llama? Nonsense. The Third Empire is in rude health and, with our Italian allies will soon deal with the perfidious Turks.
Incidentally, I'm watching the other game, and was wondering why the unit symbols are different. It'd be nice to play with ancient powers, but I suspect premium status is needed.
Having a good laugh at some of the comments on that Guardian article, eg:
- From now till September all project fear supporters are required to always be seen with puppies and kittens. Try not to kill them.
I liked "We have it! The positive case for the Union is that Wings Over Scotland is run from Bath!"
They love trotting that one out. Apparently, anybody who doesn't live in Scotland has no right to express a view. Unless his surname is David Bowie. Or David Cameron. Or Nick Clegg. Or...
'Coughing up blood', Mr. Llama? Nonsense. The Third Empire is in rude health and, with our Italian allies will soon deal with the perfidious Turks.
Incidentally, I'm watching the other game, and was wondering why the unit symbols are different. It'd be nice to play with ancient powers, but I suspect premium status is needed.
I believe not Mr Dancer, if you click create new game and scroll down you can see the options through various eras (including sharks and T-Rexes).
Premium is required for some of the rule or map variant game types.
No he doesn't. He gives a probability of 17% for Lab Maj and a further 20% for hung parliament with Lab most seats.
There is one figure that trumps everything. %age 2010 LDs now saying LAB. Today's Populus poll = 39%.We should have the Populus aggregate data for March next week.
You don't need to look at any other figures. If that starts to go below 25% then it'll be tougher for LAB.
Having a good laugh at some of the comments on that Guardian article, eg:
- From now till September all project fear supporters are required to always be seen with puppies and kittens. Try not to kill them.
I liked "We have it! The positive case for the Union is that Wings Over Scotland is run from Bath!"
They love trotting that one out. Apparently, anybody who doesn't live in Scotland has no right to express a view. Unless his surname is David Bowie. Or David Cameron. Or Nick Clegg. Or...
Stuart maybe you missed it but the "everyone else butt out" theme was started by the Nats, anyone else with a view was "interfering". How times change.
" With a little more spit and polish you might shape up into a sensible businessman, Mr Brooke."
Mr. Charles, You are aware that Mr. Brooke is an Ulsterman now living in the Midlands? Spit and polish may not be concepts with which he is familiar. His wife though, I think, is from Sussex (at least, if memory serves, she once worked in Horsham), so all hope is not necessarily lost.
Mr Llama Mrs B is also a Midlander but spent several years in Horsham. And since we are on hols next week in Kent we may well drive past your door as we make our way to some of her old haunts. I am of course hoping for some decent local cider from Kent, anything you would recommend ? Otherwise it's just Sussex fizz ;-)
Sorry, Mr. B., I can't help with anything much in Kent. I know as much about the place and its products as I do Warwickshire. Different Kingdom altogether, you see. They speak funny over there and they smell, comes from them being Jutes not Saxons.
If you are coming this way en route to Mrs. Brooke's old haunts, then I wouldn't bother with cider - the wine is much better, as we have discussed in the past (I know you have supped the RidgeView but if you get a chance do stop of at the Bolney Vineyard, it has a delightful cafe and I don't think you'll be disappointed with the wines).
Of course, if you are passing through and have the time I'd love to buy you a drink.
Steve Fisher says Labour can't win. RodCrosby says Labour can't win. Not looking good.
Two jokers.
Ho ho.
Rod Crosby has one of the best track records in UK GE prediction of any PBer.
He endured years of bullying from the idiot Tories around here because he said that Cameron would not get a majority. This when the Tories were miles ahead in the polls.
The better-mannered Tories had the good grace to apologise to him after the GE.
Mr. Surbiton, are you blaming the 5:2 diet for people who are overweight or people who are underweight?
Iirc there's limited evidence for the efficacy of the 5:2 diet.
It was based on a scientifically tested diet based on alternate days of fast and feasting (which essentially found that people didn't eat enough on the feasting days to counter-act the fast days, meaning the result was less calories eaten overall and hence weight loss) but the 5:2 system is an easier diet created by the diet industry that doesn't have the same scientific backing.
Having a good laugh at some of the comments on that Guardian article, eg:
- From now till September all project fear supporters are required to always be seen with puppies and kittens. Try not to kill them.
I liked "We have it! The positive case for the Union is that Wings Over Scotland is run from Bath!"
They love trotting that one out. Apparently, anybody who doesn't live in Scotland has no right to express a view. Unless his surname is David Bowie. Or David Cameron. Or Nick Clegg. Or...
Stuart maybe you missed it but the "everyone else butt out" theme was started by the Nats, anyone else with a view was "interfering". How times change.
Yawn.
The old staw men are trotted out for faithful service once more. Starting to look a bit tatty now.
Mr. Corporeal, there was a fairly interesting Horizon (I think) about fasting habitually to lose weight a few months ago (might be a bit longer). It found that it did work (or seemed to, at least) but the presenter opined the effort (self-discipline) involved was such that it might not be for everyone, or even many people.
'Coughing up blood', Mr. Llama? Nonsense. The Third Empire is in rude health and, with our Italian allies will soon deal with the perfidious Turks.
Incidentally, I'm watching the other game, and was wondering why the unit symbols are different. It'd be nice to play with ancient powers, but I suspect premium status is needed.
Actually, Mr. D., I was trying to be polite. The phrase I used comes from a Monty Python sketch:
"Is he dead?"
"Werl, coughing up blood last night"
(see also bishops, tattoos on the back of the neck, and productions in association with the Sunday School Board).
It might be that your Italian Allies (the notorious roué, Pulpstar is it not?) may have different ideas about the proper place of Russia. I'd caution also against underestimating the Turk, he is a Physician of some sort and therefore is not only devastatingly clever but is also skilled in, not exactly lying, but delivering messages in such a way as you only realise what he has said when its too late.
" With a little more spit and polish you might shape up into a sensible businessman, Mr Brooke."
Mr. Charles, You are aware that Mr. Brooke is an Ulsterman now living in the Midlands? Spit and polish may not be concepts with which he is familiar. His wife though, I think, is from Sussex (at least, if memory serves, she once worked in Horsham), so all hope is not necessarily lost.
I remember once, when I was 13 or 14, turning up to my Dad's office. The porter, a lovely former RSM called Michael, took one look at my shoes and dragged me down to the vaults to clean my shoes. Refused to let me see my father until they were done to his satisfaction.
I have never forgotten the concept of spit and polish...
" With a little more spit and polish you might shape up into a sensible businessman, Mr Brooke."
Mr. Charles, You are aware that Mr. Brooke is an Ulsterman now living in the Midlands? Spit and polish may not be concepts with which he is familiar. His wife though, I think, is from Sussex (at least, if memory serves, she once worked in Horsham), so all hope is not necessarily lost.
I remember once, when I was 13 or 14, turning up to my Dad's office. The porter, a lovely former RSM called Michael, took one look at my shoes and dragged me down to the vaults to clean my shoes. Refused to let me see my father until they were done to his satisfaction.
I have never forgotten the concept of spit and polish...
Great anecdote, Mr. C., and, like all great anecdotes, there are lessons to be learned from it at numerous levels if one cares to think about it.
No he doesn't. He gives a probability of 17% for Lab Maj and a further 20% for hung parliament with Lab most seats.
There is one figure that trumps everything. %age 2010 LDs now saying LAB. Today's Populus poll = 39%.We should have the Populus aggregate data for March next week.
You don't need to look at any other figures. If that starts to go below 25% then it'll be tougher for LAB.
The key is actually how many of those become dead votes in the south, the mirror of the dead Tory votes oop North. Labour piling up votes in Suffolk, Cornwall and Surrey will do them no good at all. Conversely, if it is marginal Libs flicking to the cause then they will romp home and the country will be bankrupt before the revolution comes. But at least we will have a wonk at the top. Wonks are funny.
Comments
Real votes are the only thing that matters...
Having some seats would be a bonus...
Being a ministrable party would help...
Epic fail by UKIP on all counts, so far.
Lab 1/5
Con 4/1
UKIP 20/1
LD 25/1
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good.
Lab 1/5
Con 3/1
UKIP 25/1
LD 100/1
Now of course there must be a balance and I am in favour of a debate and also sensible immigration controls but if you see the analogy with making, for example, cheap plastic toys, it becomes clear that it would not be optimal for the UK to revert or regress to being the cheap plastic toy making capital of the world. We are able (as have your friends) to move further up the value chain.
On the other hand, if your neighbour were positively to breed foxes and encourage wild rabbits ...
The other factor is that toxocariasis - and also toxoplasmosis - are recognised health hazards of domestic cats which by their nature are particular risk factors for humans, even if other species carry these parasites. They may/will ultimately need to be dealt with in some way or ways, much as the Icelanders realised that another parasitic disease, a species of tapeworm, was a problem and legislated for measures including compulsory treatment of all dogs.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2014/03/from-iaindale-now-then-as-i-was-saying.html
Unfortunately for betting purposes, the main three he names as possibly for the chop - Ken Clarke, Andrew Lansley and Sir George Young - are not technically in the cabinet. Nor is Baroness Warsi. We may well see little or no change in the cabinet proper before the election.
This must be the most stable cabinet for a very, very long time - an extraordinary contrast to Blair reshuffling ministers every other Thursday, presumably in order to ensure that they'd never have time to master the brief.
If that included all parties which received more than 1 million votes at the last GE, or had at least 1 MP at Westminster, or were consistently polling more than 10% of the vote, and were contesting more than half the seats this time round, that would probably include Con, Lab, Lib Dem, UKIP and Green, with Respect unlikely to be able to find the £175,000 to cover deposits in half the constituencies.
This would lead to ten debates, though you'd probably want to add a few for the Nationalist parties.
England-Germany alliance against France, with France brilliantly putting a fleet in behind England (I may or may not be France). Italy taking a slice out of Austria as Turkey squeezes Russia out of the South and Russia taking Scandinavia while England and Germany are busy attacking France.
Of course we can address competitiveness but how do you suppose we can address the competitiveness of a low cost producer of low-technology products?
Anything to do with labour as a factor input d'ya think?
Not everything is a conspiracy dreamed up by the military-industrial complex - I prefer George's vision of the UK to yours.
But you obviously want an argument on this and I don't really want to try and convince you. If you dont like cats, and think its ok to kill other peoples pets if they enter your property I cant stop you. Just saying that I don't feel I have the right to kill living creatures, especially not mammals, who I think are worth more than insects
The man at the ONS said this:"As a percentage of GDP, the current account deficits over recent quarters represent some of the largest on record. However, relatively little of this is due to deteriorating net trade. Most of the decline stems from falling income from UK assets overseas, compared with income from foreign-owned assets in the UK"It looks like we have been financing our spending by selling assets off to foreigners, which is leading us to have to send more money abroad to pay these new owners.
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good.
The point I made in my earlier post (on the previous thread?) also to Alanbrooke. The comment to which you have replied is not related to the current account/BoP issue, although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine)..
Not objecting, just clarifying.
But on the current account issue we need to separate out the capital flows and investment/divestment figures from the income/expense flows. The former flows tend to be volatile and the transactions non-recurring which means a longer view and more detailed analysis is needed. A single capital transaction can, for example, dominate a single period's figures (Vodafone's US divestment being a recent positive example).
When you look at the underlying current flows the trade picture is improving from a poor starting point.
On the capital side, we have to accept that in a period of forced government, enterprise and household deleveraging we will be dependent for some time on net foreign inflows of investment. This is not necessarily bad for the economy and, if the UK government is successful in reaching its fiscal consolidation and rebalancing goals, should reverse over the long term. But we need to be thinking mid 2020s here not next year!
In the meantime let's welcome in the foreign direct investment of the Chinese and petrochemical countries.
An economy based on asset inflation ? It hasn't worked to date.
There is no simple panacea for our ills it's taken 30 odd years to get in the crap and will take the same to get out again. As I have pointed out many times our BoP problem is not primarily as a result of low cost competition. Our biggest deficit is with Europe from which we import medium tech products ( cars, fridges etc ) from medium and high cost countries. It has very little to do with labour cost. Our biggest deficit is with Germany which has higher Labour costs than we do.
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/
"you have to report a dog if you run it over in your car but not a cat or something like that. "
Horse, cattle, ass, mule, sheep. pig, goat, dog were, if memory serves, the animals that used to make an accident reportable. Hit one of those and you had to stop and give you name and address to its owner or report to the police if you couldn't. Why those animals and not, say, llamas? Well animals in that list were farm animals which were held to have monetary value. Mind, I am going back more than forty years so it all might have changed by now, maybe llamas and alpacas are now in the list.
Deer ain't though, you can hit a deer and write your car, or even yourself, off and the police will not want to know. The coroner will if there is a fatality but other than that its not a police matter. I would wager a modest sum that more people are injured by vehicles colliding with deer than contract toxomatwhatsits from domestic animal faeces mentioned below.
I also said that the analogy is with the import of cheap plastic toys as an example of where we shouldn't be heading and now you're talking about German fridges.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100265408/the-westminster-elite-should-have-the-courage-of-their-convictions/
"Farage has framed the 2015 election as a straight choice between his plucky band of insurgents, and the Lib-Lab-Con curators of the Westminster status quo. He’s right, it is. And when people vote in that election they will endorse the status quo, and reject the insurgents.
The polls are quite clear about this. Ukip are currently averaging 12 per cent. At an election they will be fortunate to get half that figure. And at that point they will be revealed for what are. An historical and psephological curiosity, not a political earthquake."
It's been confirmed to me that as well as the Sunday Times survey being included in Q1 so too will the Sun poll on Monday night. So two more chances.
A tense weekend!
Consumers can be poor who might benefit from lower prices stemming from lower cost factor inputs; other workers who might be poor and some of them even indigenous might benefit from the new factory (making fridges!) that the owner of the capital now is able to invest in..
But yes your point about lower-skilled native workers is valid. They are, however, a sub-set of the nation as a whole, not to dismiss their very real concerns.
And of course this all started because you gave a textbook example of a native population adapting, to their own benefit, to immigration.
P.S. Sorry about the "Corporal" misspelling the other day. Bit of a gaff on my part.
People tend to look at the current polling and perhaps adjust it a bit depending on their gut feel. The mistake they often make is to assume that nothing much else is likely to change. What Stephen Fisher's analysis shows is that (assuming he's done his work diligently), we can't really tell too much yet; based on past elections, if we are looking simply at opinion polls, we should not be surprised if the polling shifts substantially in the course of the next year.
Note his 95% confidence limits: Con vote share between 29% and 46%, and seats between 221 and 418.
Ridiculously wide, you might think. But that is the whole point.
Yes, some people I know have moved on to better thing, possibly on the back of being undercut in their original field but I would say these are the few not the many
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good.
The point I made in my earlier post (on the previous thread?) also to Alanbrooke. The comment to which you have replied is not related to the current account/BoP issue, although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine)..
Not objecting, just clarifying.
But on the current account issue we need to separate out the capital flows and investment/divestment figures from the income/expense flows. The former flows tend to be volatile and the transactions non-recurring which means a longer view and more detailed analysis is needed. A single capital transaction can, for example, dominate a single period's figures (Vodafone's US divestment being a recent positive example).
When you look at the underlying current flows the trade picture is improving from a poor starting point.
On the capital side, we have to accept that in a period of forced government, enterprise and household deleveraging we will be dependent for some time on net foreign inflows of investment. This is not necessarily bad for the economy and, if the UK government is successful in reaching its fiscal consolidation and rebalancing goals, should reverse over the long term. But we need to be thinking mid 2020s here not next year!
In the meantime let's welcome in the foreign direct investment of the Chinese and petrochemical countries.
" although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine).."
Mr Pole I most definitely did not have my tongue in your cheek. You are reminiscing on your louche Oxford days once again; as for which of your cheeks were freely available, I'd rather not speculate on a family blog.
Actually quite a few people in the UK who have signs of catching toxoplasmosis for one thing, something of the order of a third on checking. The overt/acute form of the disease is much rarer. However, it's not negligible in incidence. Besides, the hidden effects of being a carrier are causing a deal of concern at the moment - early days yet but it could become a major factor in how we regard uncontrolled cats etc.
On deer and cars, quite so, having had a near miss myself. I also heard an awful story from an Australian once about her brother running into a kangaroo - the mortally injured beast crashed through the windscreen and kept kicking and kicking with its sharp hooves. I don' think he was in much better shape when he was got out. No wonder Aussie lorries in the outback have those huge roo bars on the front.
I have also imagined the transfer of cheaper production to lower-cost economies (and even China is getting quite spenny) by manufacturers.
You have successfully repealed the law of comparative advantage (or "pseudo business school bollocks as I'm sure you would call it).
I think Sir Roderick has it right in going for May as the time when we will see consistent crossed over polling. It will be the April payslips wot does it.
- Scottish Lib Dem leader says anti-independence campaigners must be more positive about UK's strengths
"I think there's a possibility Scotland could be independent in September. I think there's a distinct possibility," Rennie told BBC Scotland. "That's why we need to focus really hard on what that means."
Rennie said the pro-UK campaign needed to switch emphasis from the negatives of independence to pursue a strategy that emphasises the positives of the UK. "We want to talk more about those things and less about the 'ah, buts'," he said.
"I'm hoping that Better Together [the pro-UK campaign] will embrace that sunshine strategy over the coming months. People need to know that there's something great about the United Kingdom. We need to remind them what that is."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/28/scotland-vote-independence-uk-campaign
http://www.scdigest.com/images/Mexico_China_Labor_Costs_2013.gif
Mr Pole I most definitely did not have my tongue in your cheek. You are reminiscing on your louche Oxford days once again; as for which of your cheeks were freely available, I'd rather not speculate on a family blog.
Salmond landed, Mr. Brooke!
Those weeks I spent fishing in Northern Iceland financed by Landsbanki have stood me in great stead for my latter day blogging.
Such a shame the bank failed.
With Hinkley Point C to be built by the Chinese, who are also investing in offshore wind, this process is likely to accelerate.
It looks like our position has deteriorated under this government, rather than improved. It doesn't look good."
Huzzah! Someone has made the point that has been troubling me for some years. All this foreign investment, which we are supposed to not only welcome but actually go out and seek, often consists of foreign companies buying up our industries and infrastructure, hollowing them out (IP and production facilities taken away) and taking any profits off-shore . Why this should be seen as a good thing is quite beyond me.
P.S.
That's fine HorseLlama, I'll take it as a Napoleonic comparison but you could make it at least lieutenant next time.
" although AB introduced it spuriously (but with his tongue as firmly in his cheek as mine).."
Mr Pole I most definitely did not have my tongue in your cheek. You are reminiscing on your louche Oxford days once again; as for which of your cheeks were freely available, I'd rather not speculate on a family blog.
Salmond landed, Mr. Brooke!
Those weeks I spent fishing in Northern Iceland financed by Landsbanki have stood me in great stead for my latter day blogging.
Such a shame the bank failed.
Mr Pole it didn't "fail" it was a success like RBS and HBOS. I shall now have to ask some of the Landsbanki people why they never took me fishing.
I was thinking of you this morning when contemplating the welcome but surprise arrival of Sir Joshua Reynolds on PB.
I commend the following to your attention:
http://bit.ly/1mywUo4
But why?
That'll scare the shit out of the Better Together guys.
Not far off the Lebo & Norpoth model, as it happens...
They realised 10 years ago that they couldn't compete with buckets of plastic blocks produced in China. That's why they are focused on branding and characters these days - someone was complaining a few weeks ago (I think on here!) about there being some characters aimed at girls (Lego Friends) and some aimed at boys, etc.
Essentially they are trying to create IP that will enable them to charge a premium price. If they can do that, then labour cost is only a small part of the overall calculation so you don't need to move everything to China.
Making unbranded cheap plastic toys is not a sensible strategy for the UK economy as a whole. IP and design is - and then, ideally, keep the manufacturing onshore where possible.
A. Pour petrol on it and chuck it on the fire.
The silly chinese are investing in low value revenue generating projects like energy which do oldfashioned things like generate cash and pay a dividend. UK institutions are more sophisticated and target high yield projects like Irish property or Ninja loans. I hope that's helped.
Magnificent, Mr LP, and my thanks for the thought and the link.
I don't doubt it.
As I say, the Better Together guys will be getting into full panic mode anytime now. This'll be fun.
Meanwhile, time to fill your pockets with betting slips Rod? Some of those long CON prices in the marginals must surely be tempting you?
One problem that I can't see it solving is the clash that is going to come between Italy and Turkey once Austria has gone down and Russia shooed away. I think I shall lay in a stock of pop-corn for that one.
- From now till September all project fear supporters are required to always be seen with puppies and kittens. Try not to kill them.
Mr. Charles, You are aware that Mr. Brooke is an Ulsterman now living in the Midlands? Spit and polish may not be concepts with which he is familiar. His wife though, I think, is from Sussex (at least, if memory serves, she once worked in Horsham), so all hope is not necessarily lost.
'Coughing up blood', Mr. Llama? Nonsense. The Third Empire is in rude health and, with our Italian allies will soon deal with the perfidious Turks.
Incidentally, I'm watching the other game, and was wondering why the unit symbols are different. It'd be nice to play with ancient powers, but I suspect premium status is needed.
Premium is required for some of the rule or map variant game types.
You don't need to look at any other figures. If that starts to go below 25% then it'll be tougher for LAB.
As I say, the Better Together guys will be getting into full panic mode anytime now. This'll be fun.
Meanwhile, time to fill your pockets with betting slips Rod? Some of those long CON prices in the marginals must surely be tempting you?
I was thinking exactly that earlier Stuart when you posted the odds on a certain seat that shall remain nameless.
Yes the Red Liberals are the killers --- unless the Purple Tories dribble back to the Blues.
twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/449588041493929987/photo/1
I particularly like the fact that the Budget (which in fact did not happen this week) was noticed more than the Clegg/Farage debate.
Still, maybe some of that 0.7% of the public changed their votes off the back of the debate.
That'll scare the shit out of the Better Together guys.
At least, this time he got his arithmetic right. Last time even that was wrong ! 39 + 24 = 63.
If you are coming this way en route to Mrs. Brooke's old haunts, then I wouldn't bother with cider - the wine is much better, as we have discussed in the past (I know you have supped the RidgeView but if you get a chance do stop of at the Bolney Vineyard, it has a delightful cafe and I don't think you'll be disappointed with the wines).
Of course, if you are passing through and have the time I'd love to buy you a drink.
Rod Crosby has one of the best track records in UK GE prediction of any PBer.
He endured years of bullying from the idiot Tories around here because he said that Cameron would not get a majority. This when the Tories were miles ahead in the polls.
The better-mannered Tories had the good grace to apologise to him after the GE.
Ignore Rod at your peril.
It was based on a scientifically tested diet based on alternate days of fast and feasting (which essentially found that people didn't eat enough on the feasting days to counter-act the fast days, meaning the result was less calories eaten overall and hence weight loss) but the 5:2 system is an easier diet created by the diet industry that doesn't have the same scientific backing.
The old staw men are trotted out for faithful service once more. Starting to look a bit tatty now.
"Is he dead?"
"Werl, coughing up blood last night"
(see also bishops, tattoos on the back of the neck, and productions in association with the Sunday School Board).
It might be that your Italian Allies (the notorious roué, Pulpstar is it not?) may have different ideas about the proper place of Russia. I'd caution also against underestimating the Turk, he is a Physician of some sort and therefore is not only devastatingly clever but is also skilled in, not exactly lying, but delivering messages in such a way as you only realise what he has said when its too late.
I have never forgotten the concept of spit and polish...
Oh go on and spill the beans!
Labour piling up votes in Suffolk, Cornwall and Surrey will do them no good at all.
Conversely, if it is marginal Libs flicking to the cause then they will romp home and the country will be bankrupt before the revolution comes. But at least we will have a wonk at the top. Wonks are funny.