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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov polling blow for the man Ladbrokes make the 5-1 second favourite to be Dave’s successor
Although the fieldwork took place earlier in the month and before the budget it was only this week that YouGov put up the above polling on their site.
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Wait "before the budget ?" - what a waste of time then.
UKIP 30%
Lab 29%
Con 20%
LD 10%
Green 6%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8694
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/us4db58fnm/SunResults_140327_EU_VI.pdf
Dave is merely George's proxy.
What is more, George is winning. On his own terms and at his own pace.
Shadsy should both pay out and be paid now.
Come May 2015, Mr. Brooke will be the only punter left not backing George.
"The YouGov Euro poll has the following figures for 10/10 certain to vote."
No one is 10/10 certain to vote. I filled in the yougov survey today and I put 9/10 which is accurate, as I'll vote barring a major catastrophe. 10/10 means you are immortal and can foresee the future.
Yes, I know I'm sounding like Sheldon Cooper, but has no one any respect for accuracy?
But the main driver of Osborne's chances is the Tories staying in government. He'd be the front-runner if Cameron stood down of his own accord and in his own time, whereas if they end up out of office in 2015 it's very hard to see him winning, because he'll personify everything people will be blaming the defeat on.
'Tis a pity, because he would make an excellent PM; he's cannier, sharper, more careful, and less sentimental than Cameron, although Cameron does the emotional stuff better.
Incidentally, that 51% is an astonishingly high figure for Cameron, and should worry Labour.
Tom Gordon @ScottishPol 14 mins
Tavish Scott tells LibDem conf Labour have yet to put their best people forward in the No campaign. Wonder what Darling will make of that?
The mind boggles as to what the party of Lembit, Carmichael, Rennie and indeed Tavish considers the 'best'.
so let me get this straight - the guy who wants to see less immigration and is a committed Kipper provides as far as I can remember the only actual concrete real life example on PB of how immigration has unambiguously benefited the indigenous population, electricians to boot, thereby confirming many of the studies on the subject but, I presume (?), remains anti-immigration.
The Lab PPC, meanwhile, writes how this (immigration benefiting the indigenous population) is not necessarily a good thing and that there are a lot of ifs and buts and so forths which mean that we shouldn't welcome this on-the-ground research and conclusion.
Right.
Well if that represents the coherence of the opposition roll on a Cons maj.
FPT If UKIP were polling 50% with ICM, would it be right to exclude them? The reality is that the rules are an incumbents' charter, and that is why supporters of the incumbent parties in the House of Commons approve so strongly of them.
Eton
Bog Standard Comp
Westminster
Dulwich
Nottingham
St. Pauls
Not bad for independent schools either.
It is easy to tell which one is odd.
Balliol
Corpus
None
None
Keble
Magdalen
No easily discernible pattern, albeit Corpus is punching above its weight.
Definitely well suited: Cameron, Osborne, Balls
Probably well suited: Clegg
Absolutely no way: Farage, Miliband
A special category of his own: Boris. I really don't know, could be brilliant, could be a disaster.
The prerequisite must be a previous significant block of representatives in whatever legislature you are electing for. Alternatively we have a dozen or so "leaders" in a debate similar to a GOP candidate beauty contest at the start of the primaries.
Lab 1/3
Con 2/1
UKIP 50/1
LD 100/1
61% of the public state that he is not well-suited to be Prime Minister. That seems a pretty unambiguous thumbs down.
1. Pleased to see you rating Balls as highly as I do.
2. The way to put Boris to the test is to ask "would he allow George to continue running party and country if given the opportunity to take over from Dave?".
I suspect not, and that is why he shouldn't be joining Dave, George and Ed B in the top rank.
I think GO will be bricking it that the wheels don't come off the bandwagon before the GE. He's not actually addressed the real economy.
Of course he's rather unpleasant and is wrong about pretty much everything, but those are different points.
Now please would you tell YouGov.
But you will have to wait for the yellow boxes.
remember that the BoP is a lagging indicator - it's just that it's been lagging for the last 30 years.
The incumbent parties are so because the vast majority of the voters put them there and it is within the power of the electorate to change that. Effectively the punters tell the broadcasters who the main players are.
If Ukip or other parties wish to change that then they must convince sufficient of the population to endorse them as indeed Ukip have for the European Parliament.
WTF! That is an astonishing, depressing, mesmeric, gobsmacking, horrific, unfathomable statistic. OK some lefties will vote Labour whoever's leading. I get that. But Miliband? Personally? PM suitable? 29%? I truly have nothing in common with millions of my countrymen.
The others that are still working for a boss are competing for jobs with EU migrants on much lower pay than they got 5 or 6 years ago, and working on sites where no one speaks English. Lord knows what young workers are doing.
So, as is always the case, mass immigration benefits those who run companies and depresses the wages of those who dont
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 16m
East ward by-election result for #Seaford Town Council: #UKIP 42.06%, LDEM 24.98%, CON 24.32%, LAB 8.65%. UKIP gain 2 seats from CON.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tH7XCcnYZs&
TB is speading from cat to cat in the SE.
We may need to put down all the cats and their owners. Dogsbody Ed nailed on as PM.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10728980/TB-may-be-spreading-from-cat-to-cat.html
(MEPs in brackets)
SNP 26% (2) (n/c)
Lab 21% (1) (-1)
Con 17% (1) (n/c)
UKIP 15% (1) (+1)
LD 13% (1) (n/c)
Grn 4%
oth 3%
I said the real economy.
Gawain Towler @GawainTowler 26m
Congratulations to Cllrs George Cook and Linda Lord who both won seats on Seaford TC last night on 42% and 39% of the vote #UKIPWinningHere
Remember debt is wealth, growth is austerity, work is pour les autres.
Even if they have decided it, I don't think it's a done deal. If UKIP win the Euros, get a blaze of publicity, and are then surfing in the high teens, I don't think anyone could say with a straight face that they won't have a major impact at the general election. That surely makes them a major party. Ofcom would destroy its own credibility if it just ended up as a shield for the big two.
http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/consultations/major-political-parties-2014/statement
It's full report is also linked on the same page.
Although OFCOM's ruling was specifically for the upcoming Euros it did go to some length to state that the MEP ruling giving UKIP "major party" status does not apply to other elections.
The key to any quasi-judicial decision such as this one is to apply rules which are fair, transparent and consistent.
Any attempt to justify granting UKIP "major party" status for the General Election would fail on the grounds of lack of consistency with previous rulings.
The Ofcom rulings for broadcasters are a sensible and rational determination for elections and frankly anything else would be little short of a shambles.
I guess the people who agree with the OFCOM ruling were also against positive discrimination in South African sport?
Best prices:
LD 1/4 (Lad)
Lab 7/1 (Hills)
Con 10/1 (Lad)
UKIP 50/1 (Lad)
Jeremy Clarkson 100/1 (Lad)
Loonies 500/1 (Lad)
Peter Stringfellow 500/1 (Lad)
Elvis Bus Pass Party 1000/1 (Lad)
I think you are nostalgically harking back to the days of Black and White television before OFCOM was even a twinkling in Mandela's eye.
Lab 1/8
Con 4/1
LD 25/1
UKIP 50/1
Lab 1/5
Con 7/2
UKIP 33/1
LD 100/1
Good news for 'Yes'.
Edit: no problem with cats per se at all - just the way people let them roam free wherever they like. Dogs aren';t allowed to do that so why cats? You'd call the council dog warden to deal with stray dogs.
He said the changes had not worked out as intended. LOL.
If you are going to have some sort of broadcasting distinction between major and minor parties - which I'm not convinced is a great idea, but whatever - then I think it's reasonable to expect that a new or growing party would be able to win a few by-elections to demonstrate that they should be considered a "major" party.
Ladbrokes - Morley and Outwood (Lab maj = 1,101)
Lab 1/8
Con 9/2
UKIP 33/1
LD 100/1
An example:
2.24 The Scottish Green Party strongly favoured Option B and said that the effect of Options A and C would be: “to impose upon Scottish broadcasters a duty to grant [UKIP] far more representation than can be warranted by that party's record in Scotland”. It added that the treatment of the SNP and Plaid Cymru establishes “clear precedent for recognising a party's support or lack thereof in the nations of Great Britain separately”.
As I said, I don't personally have strong views on the matter, but I'm quite certain they won't change the rules at this late stage.
As regards the debates (a closely related issue but not quite the same one), my personal view is that there should be a PM candidate debate (Miliband vs Cameron in this case, designed to give viewers the opportunity to assess the individuals who might be PM after the election), and a party leaders' debate which of course would include the LibDems, the Greens and UKIP, and which might include the BNP if their polling were as strong as it was before the last election. That would be an opportunity for putting forward and debating alternative views.
However, ain't gonna happen. The LibDems would, not unreasonably from their point of view, fight it tooth and nail.
It being a Friday afternoon I decided to take a break from trying to untangle Dr. Palmer's logic (it will not be a good thing for young Brits to get qualifications in trades but a six month make- work placement will be much better for their long term prospects) and look at the PB Diplomacy Games.
The death match is still in the initial negotiations phase, but PB2014 MK2 has just completed the Spring 1903 moves. I have to ask, what the feck is going on there, fellows? OK, Austria's position looks terminal and Russia seems to be entering the coughing up blood phase, but the rest looks like a furball. Any of the players want to provide a commentary as to what they think is going on?
As a person, very different considerations apply.