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The great disappointment – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,178
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    The Art of the U Turn !

    To be fair to Trump it isn't tech factories his voters wanted back but car and steel factories in the rustbelt
    While that's true, one only has to look at a Tesla factory to see that the number of skilled blue collar jobs there are a fraction of those in the old days.

    This is from nine years ago, and things have only got more automated since then: https://youtu.be/1o0aDdyIsm4?si=oG_paOxsvpTFVkAQ
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,904
    Trump blinks again. He is caving in again over tariffs. Has he peaked?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20xn626y81o
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,284
    algarkirk said:

    Trump blinks again. He is caving in again over tariffs. Has he peaked?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20xn626y81o

    I like the idea that Trump went into this hoping to bully China into concessions in return for taking off some of his tariffs.

    Instead he's ended up negotiating with American companies as to which markets get exceptions.

    He's just exempted most of China's high value exports to the US from tariffs before Xi has even considered picking up the phone.

    The art of the deal...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,074
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,036

    Foxy said:

    Looks like European travel to the USA is dropping swiftly.


    Is that just that Trump has cratered demand or has America also slowed tourist visas on the supply side?
    The variation between countries with Denmark dropping the most suggests that it is reduced demand rather than visas being refused.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,036
    In shock news Leicester City have scored 2 goals and got a point.

    Our first goal and point since January. Too little, too late.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,993
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    I have been very busy and haven't fully been following the British Steel thing. Why are the government passing this slightly odd bill giving all these powers to the minister to basically run the show, with another bill implied in several weeks times to fully nationalise the plant? Can it not be done in one step?

    I think it was too complicated to do that at very short notice so they went for this initial simpler Bill .
    I think the honest answer is just that they were very slow in deciding what to do about steel policy (possibly still haven't done so) and the Chinese called their bluff.

    It was either let it shut down, or move very quickly; this is the latter.
    The Chinese company running it are starving the blast furnaces. Without enough material, they shut down. Which is permanent - restarting a blast furnace is pretty much impossible.

    So the urgency is in keeping them running.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,982
    A helpful guide to the current state of US trade policy:

    https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3lmmugzz7bs2c
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,036
    edited April 12
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    The Art of the U Turn !

    To be fair to Trump it isn't tech factories his voters wanted back but car and steel factories in the rustbelt
    While that's true, one only has to look at a Tesla factory to see that the number of skilled blue collar jobs there are a fraction of those in the old days.

    This is from nine years ago, and things have only got more automated since then: https://youtu.be/1o0aDdyIsm4?si=oG_paOxsvpTFVkAQ
    Yes, the thing that makes onshoring of manufacturing viable is automation. Onshoring is not going to provide mass employment in the rust belts anywhere.

    It might improve balance of payments and protect supply chains a bit, so isn't completely pointless.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,899
    Scott_xP said:

    A helpful guide to the current state of US trade policy:

    https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3lmmugzz7bs2c

    Another:

    image
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,082
    Eddie Howe in hospital
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,668
    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,248

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
  • CollegeCollege Posts: 28
    edited April 12
    algarkirk said:

    Trump blinks again. He is caving in again over tariffs. Has he peaked?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20xn626y81o

    It's so annoying that when I'm hoping he's on the point of an undeniable kook-out, such that no psychiatrist would feel the Goldwater rule still applies ("They're eating the dogs and masturbating the nuclear warheads to disrespect Hannibal Lecter!"), he tones it down.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,248

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    I have been very busy and haven't fully been following the British Steel thing. Why are the government passing this slightly odd bill giving all these powers to the minister to basically run the show, with another bill implied in several weeks times to fully nationalise the plant? Can it not be done in one step?

    I think it was too complicated to do that at very short notice so they went for this initial simpler Bill .
    I think the honest answer is just that they were very slow in deciding what to do about steel policy (possibly still haven't done so) and the Chinese called their bluff.

    It was either let it shut down, or move very quickly; this is the latter.
    The Chinese company running it are starving the blast furnaces. Without enough material, they shut down. Which is permanent - restarting a blast furnace is pretty much impossible.

    So the urgency is in keeping them running.
    I know nothing about this. Why it is so hard / nearly impossible to restart a blast furnace?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,613

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    Please don't be sarcastic or disparaging, it may cause the perpetrator undue stress.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,248
    edited April 12

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    Please don't be sarcastic or disparaging, it may cause the perpetrator undue stress.
    Is the third brother still on the run? After the UK state made an absolute shit show of dealing with him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,353
    Frank Luntz: "40% of China’s exports to the U.S. are electronics which are now exempt from reciprocal tariffs."

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,248
    edited April 12
    About as much sign for peace as Ukraine / Russia...

    Israel's defence minister has announced its military will soon "vigorously" expand its offensive throughout most of Gaza. Israel Katz also said the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had completed the takeover of a "security zone" in the southern part of the Gaza Strip, separating the cities of Rafah and Khan Younis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg5jwyje0do
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,993

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    I have been very busy and haven't fully been following the British Steel thing. Why are the government passing this slightly odd bill giving all these powers to the minister to basically run the show, with another bill implied in several weeks times to fully nationalise the plant? Can it not be done in one step?

    I think it was too complicated to do that at very short notice so they went for this initial simpler Bill .
    I think the honest answer is just that they were very slow in deciding what to do about steel policy (possibly still haven't done so) and the Chinese called their bluff.

    It was either let it shut down, or move very quickly; this is the latter.
    The Chinese company running it are starving the blast furnaces. Without enough material, they shut down. Which is permanent - restarting a blast furnace is pretty much impossible.

    So the urgency is in keeping them running.
    I know nothing about this. Why it is so hard / nearly impossible to restart a blast furnace?
    It’s a complex structure of the various layers, the lining and then the melt within. Getting it started is fun. Restarting can involve things like the whole thing exploding and showering the neighbourhood in molten steel.

    Steady state is one thing. Change is bad…..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,248
    edited April 12

    Frank Luntz: "40% of China’s exports to the U.S. are electronics which are now exempt from reciprocal tariffs."

    I wonder what the ratio of large vs small businesses this effects? I have a feeling that small businesses are probably more effected than large ones in order to give Tim Apple no tariffs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    Scott_xP said:

    A helpful guide to the current state of US trade policy:

    https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3lmmugzz7bs2c

    They have a policy?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,178
    edited April 12

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    I have been very busy and haven't fully been following the British Steel thing. Why are the government passing this slightly odd bill giving all these powers to the minister to basically run the show, with another bill implied in several weeks times to fully nationalise the plant? Can it not be done in one step?

    I think it was too complicated to do that at very short notice so they went for this initial simpler Bill .
    I think the honest answer is just that they were very slow in deciding what to do about steel policy (possibly still haven't done so) and the Chinese called their bluff.

    It was either let it shut down, or move very quickly; this is the latter.
    The Chinese company running it are starving the blast furnaces. Without enough material, they shut down. Which is permanent - restarting a blast furnace is pretty much impossible.

    So the urgency is in keeping them running.
    I know nothing about this. Why it is so hard / nearly impossible to restart a blast furnace?
    It's not quite true, and it's a rare misstep from @Malmesbury.

    It is certainly expensive (as in millions of dollars) and time consuming to do what is called a reline and restart to get a blast furnace up running again. But it is not permanent.

    It is also the case that blast furnaces get taken offline for maintenance from time to time. (As in a multiyear period: but it does happen, because parts get weak and need replacing.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,668

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1911097648385241356

    I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families.

    The police are now investigating. I will be pushing for the strongest possible punishment. Violence against our staff will never be tolerated.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,993
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    I have been very busy and haven't fully been following the British Steel thing. Why are the government passing this slightly odd bill giving all these powers to the minister to basically run the show, with another bill implied in several weeks times to fully nationalise the plant? Can it not be done in one step?

    I think it was too complicated to do that at very short notice so they went for this initial simpler Bill .
    I think the honest answer is just that they were very slow in deciding what to do about steel policy (possibly still haven't done so) and the Chinese called their bluff.

    It was either let it shut down, or move very quickly; this is the latter.
    The Chinese company running it are starving the blast furnaces. Without enough material, they shut down. Which is permanent - restarting a blast furnace is pretty much impossible.

    So the urgency is in keeping them running.
    I know nothing about this. Why it is so hard / nearly impossible to restart a blast furnace?
    It's not quite true, and it's a rare misstep from @Malmesbury.

    It is certainly expensive (as in millions of dollars) and time consuming to do what is called a reline and restart to get a blast furnace up running again. But it is not permanent.

    It is also the case that blast furnaces get taken offline for maintenance from time to time. (As in a multiyear period: but it does happen, because parts get weak and need replacing.)
    It’s something close to a rebuild to restart them. It’s more that you end up with a fairly new blast furnace in the same location.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,432
    Hmmm.


  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,980

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1911097648385241356

    I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families.

    The police are now investigating. I will be pushing for the strongest possible punishment. Violence against our staff will never be tolerated.
    The strongest possible punishment being imprisonment? Hmm.

    Meanwhile, if he threw boiling oil over them, perhaps it is time to revisit the guidelines on who can work in prison kitchens.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,613

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1911097648385241356

    I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families.

    The police are now investigating. I will be pushing for the strongest possible punishment. Violence against our staff will never be tolerated.
    The strongest possible punishment being imprisonment? Hmm.

    Meanwhile, if he threw boiling oil over them, perhaps it is time to revisit the guidelines on who can work in prison kitchens.
    They could put him in solitary confinement. It seems somewhat justified in the circumstances.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,461

    Frank Luntz: "40% of China’s exports to the U.S. are electronics which are now exempt from reciprocal tariffs."

    So let's get this right. With the tariffs at there current level, America will export nothing to China and China will export 40% of what it previously did to America. How does that compare to the previous deficit on trade?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,432
    edited April 12

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    I apologise if this point has already been made, I haven't had time to read the thread yet, but this polling shows how little the general public understand about the world and position we are in.

    It is not that the Tories and Labour are the same, they come from different places and have different priorities and ideologies. It is that THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE. Our government, of whatever stripe has extremely little room for manoeuvre. This was demonstrated to all but the very dimmest by Truss and her hapless Chancellor and yet Labour still managed to get elected after persuading people that "austerity was a choice". Even some on here, who are inevitably better informed and more engaged than most, seem to have believed it.

    Well it wasn't and it isn't. Ask Rachel Reeves. And if the collection of crackpots known as Reform took over they would discover exactly the same. Unless and until our politics comes into alignment with that reality we face ever more disillusionment and disengagement.

    A Fukker government would be chortlesome though. It would be a neverending cavalcade of policy fuck ups, attempts at extra-parliamentary overreach and scandals fuelled by 15 year old Facebook posts about how AIDS came from an EU lab.

    Labour are boring and the tories are utterly irrelevant until Badenexit is achieved. We, the smirking cynics insulated from the nation's relentless decline by our wealth and social capital, deserve to be entertained.
    You have the disadvantage of not living in Scotland. We have already done fuckwittery to an almost unimaginable level. Those ferries that were 7 years late and cost 4x as much as the original price don't even fit in the harbour they were supposed to service: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/urban-infrastructure/transportation-infrastructure/protests-in-coastal-ghost-town-where-400m-ships-don-t-fit-the-harbour/ar-AA1CLTEJ?ocid=BingNewsSerp

    So we really don't need a Reform government to see how bad it can get. We know.
    Genuine question. Why didn’t they rent some ferries as a stop gap? There’s a fair sized market in such around the world. Even some quite small ships get moved around on the deck ships, because of this.


    I really don't know. I think they wanted to pretend for years that the ferries were only weeks or months from coming into service. Hence the story of Nicola having portholes painted on the hull so long ago. They seemed to want to live in unreality rather than face difficult choices and acknowledge their own incompetence.

    But, after all those years, to work out now that another £80m of upgrades are required in Ardrossen before they can operate from there is simply stupifying. We've had nearly 10 years (including the planning and ordering process) to work that out.
    They have known for eight years that Ardrossan Harbour required upgrading. The Scottish Government have been in dispute since then with the owners, Peel Ports, about who pays for the upgrade. AFAIK, Peel Ports are refusing to pay a penny towards the upgrade. In addition, there are two berths at Ardrossan. The larger berth (called the Irish Berth as ferries to Belfast used to sail from there) was closed to all traffic about a year ago after part of the harbour wall fell into the water due to lack of maintenance. This was the berth that the new ferries were supposed to use. So, not entirely the Scottish Government’s fault.
    Fairly ruthless, Peel Ports.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Peel_Group#Controversies
    It says a lot that is great about the UK that your link points here:


    edit
    In 2021, multiple complaints were made about parking fines being issued by automated systems at Stockport Peel Centre even after motorists had purchased parking tickets.


    “Fairly ruthless” 😂
    Yes. Like how our political culture is far less accepting of some corruption, which would require a microscope to find in France or the USA.

    But looking at the dozen or so cases cited, I think "ruthless" or "sharp-elbowed" are fair descriptions. Illegal peat cutting is quite serious.

    Not a company I would want to have near where I live.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,432

    MattW said:

    I see that Bluesky is about to go over 35 million users.
    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats?ref=nucleo.jor.br

    If anyone on PB wants adding to the Starter Pack, drop me a PM.

    Political Betting People
    https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26

    All the other metrics seem to be static / trending down.
    I can't call it; but I would still like an alternative to twatter.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,980

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1911097648385241356

    I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families.

    The police are now investigating. I will be pushing for the strongest possible punishment. Violence against our staff will never be tolerated.
    The strongest possible punishment being imprisonment? Hmm.

    Meanwhile, if he threw boiling oil over them, perhaps it is time to revisit the guidelines on who can work in prison kitchens.
    They could put him in solitary confinement. It seems somewhat justified in the circumstances.
    They probably can't because they need to protect other prisoners from Islamist gangs.

    Prisoners ‘held in isolation to keep them safe from Islamists’
    HMP Frankland has become so overrun with Islamic gangs that segregation units are now obsolete

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/prisoners-isolation-islamist-gangs-jc2kvtkrn (£££)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,987
    edited April 12
    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,444
    F1: well, isn't that a splendid grid.

    Anyway, pre-race tosh and tip(s) will be up tomorrow.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,074

    F1: well, isn't that a splendid grid.

    Anyway, pre-race tosh and tip(s) will be up tomorrow.

    Real screw up from Norris. He needs to be more consistent than that if he is to see off Verstappen and his team mate. Excellent by Russell.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,082
    edited April 12

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    Why? The Act empowers the Government to control Port Talbot also
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,987
    edited April 12

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    Why? The Act empowers the Government to control Port Talbot also
    The blast furnaces are closed

    https://news.sky.com/story/port-talbot-how-steel-town-is-grappling-with-life-changing-loss-of-more-than-2-000-jobs-13345631
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,082

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    Why? The Act empowers the Government to control Port Talbot also
    The blast furnaces are closed

    https://news.sky.com/story/port-talbot-how-steel-town-is-grappling-with-life-changing-loss-of-more-than-2-000-jobs-13345631
    But the steelworks remains
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    edited April 12

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,987
    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    2026 Senedd elections - anybody but Labour
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228

    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    2026 Senedd elections - anybody but Labour
    My grandparents in Caerphilly were saying that as long ago as 1951.

    74 years on and we're still waiting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1911097648385241356

    I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families.

    The police are now investigating. I will be pushing for the strongest possible punishment. Violence against our staff will never be tolerated.
    The strongest possible punishment being imprisonment? Hmm.

    Meanwhile, if he threw boiling oil over them, perhaps it is time to revisit the guidelines on who can work in prison kitchens.
    They could put him in solitary confinement. It seems somewhat justified in the circumstances.
    Perhaps we should ask the Mikado's advice.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,987
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    2026 Senedd elections - anybody but Labour
    My grandparents in Caerphilly were saying that as long ago as 1951.

    74 years on and we're still waiting.
    Hope springs eternal

    Plaid are utterly furious and they will gain from this
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,181
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    2026 Senedd elections - anybody but Labour
    My grandparents in Caerphilly were saying that as long ago as 1951.

    74 years on and we're still waiting.
    They had access to a time machine? ;)
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 122
    What do people think about the prospects of Katie Lam as next Conservative party leader? Still available at 100/1.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,074
    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    Wales's loyalty and adherence to Labour is and always has been something of a mystery to me. It's not exactly a mutual supportive relationship. Never has been. More of an abusive relationship, really. Even Scotland, which used to be the same, broke away eventually when given a choice.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,824

    What do people think about the prospects of Katie Lam as next Conservative party leader? Still available at 100/1.

    Who?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,067
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    2026 Senedd elections - anybody but Labour
    My grandparents in Caerphilly were saying that as long ago as 1951.

    74 years on and we're still waiting.
    Carefully does it?
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 122
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    Wales's loyalty and adherence to Labour is and always has been something of a mystery to me. It's not exactly a mutual supportive relationship. Never has been. More of an abusive relationship, really. Even Scotland, which used to be the same, broke away eventually when given a choice.
    Look at Labour's vote share in Wales. It's been heading south for decades. But no other single party has been able to capitalise. Lib Dems and Plaid suffered (as smaller parties do) when governing in arrangement with Labour at Cardiff. The Tories are, well, the Tories. Reform are doing okay.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,067

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    2026 Senedd elections - anybody but Labour
    My grandparents in Caerphilly were saying that as long ago as 1951.

    74 years on and we're still waiting.
    Hope springs eternal

    Plaid are utterly furious and they will gain from this
    It a shame they no longer have that woman with the amazing voice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    2026 Senedd elections - anybody but Labour
    My grandparents in Caerphilly were saying that as long ago as 1951.

    74 years on and we're still waiting.
    Carefully does it?
    There's no merth or hope left.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,074

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1911097648385241356

    I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families.

    The police are now investigating. I will be pushing for the strongest possible punishment. Violence against our staff will never be tolerated.
    The strongest possible punishment being imprisonment? Hmm.

    Meanwhile, if he threw boiling oil over them, perhaps it is time to revisit the guidelines on who can work in prison kitchens.
    "I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families."

    What, did something go wrong in the attack?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,067
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,454

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1911097648385241356

    I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families.

    The police are now investigating. I will be pushing for the strongest possible punishment. Violence against our staff will never be tolerated.
    The strongest possible punishment being imprisonment? Hmm.

    Meanwhile, if he threw boiling oil over them, perhaps it is time to revisit the guidelines on who can work in prison kitchens.
    They could put him in solitary confinement. It seems somewhat justified in the circumstances.
    Just execute him. Enough. He killed dozens of young girls. He’s 100% guilty. He’s now injuring more

    Hang him
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,067
    edited April 12
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
    Just give the job to whoever is best able to apologise for decades of abuse, and centuries of misery, war and death, whilst simultaneously being able to spout a stream of absolute rubbish and appear to believe it all.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,081
    edited April 12
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OllyT said:

    How lomg before Reform also disappoints?

    I suspect they will be pretty rubbish at running councils. Speaking of which, how would Farage resolve the bins in Brum? Maybe someone would like to ask him. Unless they have some ex-counsellors in their ranks - maybe defectors from the Tories? - they will be pretty clueless from day one.

    The truth is that no party has the answers to our problems.

    Hard, long-term decisions are required but if anyone attempted to be really honest with the electorate they would howl and whine because a substantial wedge of the electorate want everything to be excellent (healthcare, education, defence) but don't want to pay the price necessary (not personally at least). No party can square that circle so the voters lurch about latching on to the next snake-oil salesman.

    Like it or not autocracies have the upper hand over democracies in this respect which is why I also expect China to win its battle with Trump.
    I’ve been saying for a while. Democracy is dwindling - and it is probably doomed over time. A relatively brief experiment in the context of human history

    There are multiple reasons for this. Just one is the greater ability of autocracies to make difficult long term decisions
    Stop it. It is most unnerving when you make a point that is both controversial and correct for once. It really makes me wonder if I have got it wrong.
    I’m doing a Gazette piece about it. So you’ll be able to luxuriate in the unnervingness at even greater length

    Right. Fuck the “Tien Shan foothills and canyons”. Most boring place on earth. It’s Gooly Archypoo on the car stereo and back to places that understand “gin”
    I know you don't have the attention span to read an actual book you didn't write, but may I recommend "how to rig an election" https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300279467/how-to-rig-an-election/

    If you combine that with Applebaum's work on "The Twilight Of Democracy" and "Autocracies Inc" the article writes itself.

    Knowing your prediction for AI you may already have done that, of course. 😀

    Lord Sumption has a new book out on defending democracy and rule of law.
    I once gave a talk on his judgment in Hughes-Holland-v-BPE Solicitors and another, a case concerning the extent of liability for professional negligence by professional advisors. I said: "At the risk of bringing on deep feelings of inadequacy and insecurity I would commend a careful reading of the whole judgment. It is a magisterial piece of work. "


    Anyone so inclined can read it here: https://supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2014-0026

    He writes with the extraordinary clarity of the truly brilliant. This, of course, does not mean that he is right all the time, especially when he goes beyond his own competence in the law into more political matters. But he really isn't someone who you have to puzzle what he really means. I have a pile of unread books right now but I am seriously tempted.
    I know lawyers live on a different plane in terms of prolixity, but that judgement from the word "Introduction" to the end of para 19 is 3,524 words long. That's nearly two whole Ydoethurs.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 122
    You learn something new every day.

    Judges can refuse the release of court transcripts. I'm struggling to understand this one since a court is an open place. And why is it so expensive to obtain the documents? I presume every word gets recorded anyway doesn't it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,353
    kjh said:

    Frank Luntz: "40% of China’s exports to the U.S. are electronics which are now exempt from reciprocal tariffs."

    So let's get this right. With the tariffs at there current level, America will export nothing to China and China will export 40% of what it previously did to America. How does that compare to the previous deficit on trade?
    You are looking for rhyme and reason where there is none.

    Apple stock up 15% on Monday though?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
    Just give the job to whoever is best able to apologise for decades of abuse, and centuries of misery, war and death, whilst simultaneously being able to spout a stream of absolute rubbish and appear to believe it all.
    Not a bad idea, but Ed Davey's a bit busy right now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OllyT said:

    How lomg before Reform also disappoints?

    I suspect they will be pretty rubbish at running councils. Speaking of which, how would Farage resolve the bins in Brum? Maybe someone would like to ask him. Unless they have some ex-counsellors in their ranks - maybe defectors from the Tories? - they will be pretty clueless from day one.

    The truth is that no party has the answers to our problems.

    Hard, long-term decisions are required but if anyone attempted to be really honest with the electorate they would howl and whine because a substantial wedge of the electorate want everything to be excellent (healthcare, education, defence) but don't want to pay the price necessary (not personally at least). No party can square that circle so the voters lurch about latching on to the next snake-oil salesman.

    Like it or not autocracies have the upper hand over democracies in this respect which is why I also expect China to win its battle with Trump.
    I’ve been saying for a while. Democracy is dwindling - and it is probably doomed over time. A relatively brief experiment in the context of human history

    There are multiple reasons for this. Just one is the greater ability of autocracies to make difficult long term decisions
    Stop it. It is most unnerving when you make a point that is both controversial and correct for once. It really makes me wonder if I have got it wrong.
    I’m doing a Gazette piece about it. So you’ll be able to luxuriate in the unnervingness at even greater length

    Right. Fuck the “Tien Shan foothills and canyons”. Most boring place on earth. It’s Gooly Archypoo on the car stereo and back to places that understand “gin”
    I know you don't have the attention span to read an actual book you didn't write, but may I recommend "how to rig an election" https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300279467/how-to-rig-an-election/

    If you combine that with Applebaum's work on "The Twilight Of Democracy" and "Autocracies Inc" the article writes itself.

    Knowing your prediction for AI you may already have done that, of course. 😀

    Lord Sumption has a new book out on defending democracy and rule of law.
    I once gave a talk on his judgment in Hughes-Holland-v-BPE Solicitors and another, a case concerning the extent of liability for professional negligence by professional advisors. I said: "At the risk of bringing on deep feelings of inadequacy and insecurity I would commend a careful reading of the whole judgment. It is a magisterial piece of work. "


    Anyone so inclined can read it here: https://supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2014-0026

    He writes with the extraordinary clarity of the truly brilliant. This, of course, does not mean that he is right all the time, especially when he goes beyond his own competence in the law into more political matters. But he really isn't someone who you have to puzzle what he really means. I have a pile of unread books right now but I am seriously tempted.
    I know lawyers live on a different plane in terms of prolixity, but that judgement from the word "Introduction" to the end of para 19 is 3,524 words long. That's nearly two whole Ydoethurs.
    Does that make him twice as brilliant or half as brilliant as me?

    I like the second option, if I'm honest...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,493
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good evening

    I am not qualified sufficiently to discuss the rights and wrongs of today's Parliamentary antics and it seems the government has passed its measures

    However, the optics for Port Talbot and Wales, together with Scotland, are utterly dreadful for Labour and the narrative for the Senedd and Holyrood elections next year by Labour's opponents is already written

    I assume many billions will now be involved so due to Reeves fiscal rules more cuts in the public sector must be on the way

    To be fair, if that finally leads to the breaking of Labour's monopoly in Wales then some good will have come out of it.

    I'd rather it wasn't at the expense of the workers of Port Talbot, but it has to be said they're being shafted in exactly the same way all other former heavy industrial workers in Wales have been by Labour.
    2026 Senedd elections - anybody but Labour
    My grandparents in Caerphilly were saying that as long ago as 1951.

    74 years on and we're still waiting.
    My (one - time) time Caerphilly grandfather was Labour to his death. His wife, my grandmother was pleased when I became involved with the Liberals. Apparently her father had been involved with the Party in Mid-Wales.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,353
    Apple wont even face the 10% tariff the rest of world faces apparently. Even that has been dropped for iphones and other electronics.

    Has @TSE been on the phone to Trumpski?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,980
    edited April 12

    What do people think about the prospects of Katie Lam as next Conservative party leader? Still available at 100/1.

    She had a pop at Jess Phillips over grooming gang inquiries during the week which raised her profile. Next leader, ie the one directly following Kemi, would be pushing it a bit though. ETA Katie Lam is a former SpAd who has been in the Commons only since July.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,284
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
    Just give the job to whoever is best able to apologise for decades of abuse, and centuries of misery, war and death, whilst simultaneously being able to spout a stream of absolute rubbish and appear to believe it all.
    Speaking as an atheist, should they consider giving the job to someone who will focus on promoting Christianity in the England and more widely?

    I'm obviously fine if they don't, but it strikes me as something someone with that job title might want to consider.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    Ratters said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
    Just give the job to whoever is best able to apologise for decades of abuse, and centuries of misery, war and death, whilst simultaneously being able to spout a stream of absolute rubbish and appear to believe it all.
    Speaking as an atheist, should they consider giving the job to someone who will focus on promoting Christianity in the England and more widely?

    I'm obviously fine if they don't, but it strikes me as something someone with that job title might want to consider.
    It would be a dramatic break with tradition, and would greatly confuse the church membership.

    It would also be sensible.

    So that's three reasons why it seems unlikely, but you never know.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 596
    It is very bad that labour are pursuing blue policies. I have given up on them. Labour must grow a god damn back bone. Standing up to Trump and dropping the red lines with the EU are a must.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 122

    What do people think about the prospects of Katie Lam as next Conservative party leader? Still available at 100/1.

    She had a pop at Jess Phillips over grooming gang inquiries during the week which raised her profile. Next leader, ie the one directly following Kemi, would be pushing it a bit though. ETA Katie Lam is a former SpAd who has been in the Commons only since July.
    State educated, read Classics at Cambridge, President of the Union. Then went on to Goldmans and SpAd work so perhaps a bit generic for current tastes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,353

    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam


    10% ‘universal’ tariff now riddled with exemptions for many with massive trade surpluses

    🇻🇳 $124bn surplus 30% exempted
    🇹🇼 $74bn surplus 64% exempted ac to Capital.

    Whereas ally 🇬🇧 which on 🇺🇸 figures has $12bn deficit… faces 25% on biggest goods exports - cars & pharma.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,067

    What do people think about the prospects of Katie Lam as next Conservative party leader? Still available at 100/1.

    She had a pop at Jess Phillips over grooming gang inquiries during the week which raised her profile. Next leader, ie the one directly following Kemi, would be pushing it a bit though. ETA Katie Lam is a former SpAd who has been in the Commons only since July.
    State educated, read Classics at Cambridge, President of the Union. Then went on to Goldmans and SpAd work so perhaps a bit generic for current tastes.
    And she’s worked for all the wrong people.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,353
    Bill Kristol: "Trump press secretary Karoline Leavitt yesterday: "Trust in President Trump. He knows what he's doing." "
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,493


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam


    10% ‘universal’ tariff now riddled with exemptions for many with massive trade surpluses

    🇻🇳 $124bn surplus 30% exempted
    🇹🇼 $74bn surplus 64% exempted ac to Capital.

    Whereas ally 🇬🇧 which on 🇺🇸 figures has $12bn deficit… faces 25% on biggest goods exports - cars & pharma.

    Are there any exemptions for Heard Island?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228

    Bill Kristol: "Trump press secretary Karoline Leavitt yesterday: "Trust in President Trump. He knows what he's doing." "

    Porn stars?
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 122
    IanB2 said:

    What do people think about the prospects of Katie Lam as next Conservative party leader? Still available at 100/1.

    She had a pop at Jess Phillips over grooming gang inquiries during the week which raised her profile. Next leader, ie the one directly following Kemi, would be pushing it a bit though. ETA Katie Lam is a former SpAd who has been in the Commons only since July.
    State educated, read Classics at Cambridge, President of the Union. Then went on to Goldmans and SpAd work so perhaps a bit generic for current tastes.
    And she’s worked for all the wrong people.
    Maybe but she looks good and speaks well. One to watch.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,613

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1911097648385241356

    I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families.

    The police are now investigating. I will be pushing for the strongest possible punishment. Violence against our staff will never be tolerated.
    The strongest possible punishment being imprisonment? Hmm.

    Meanwhile, if he threw boiling oil over them, perhaps it is time to revisit the guidelines on who can work in prison kitchens.
    They could put him in solitary confinement. It seems somewhat justified in the circumstances.
    They probably can't because they need to protect other prisoners from Islamist gangs.

    Prisoners ‘held in isolation to keep them safe from Islamists’
    HMP Frankland has become so overrun with Islamic gangs that segregation units are now obsolete

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/prisoners-isolation-islamist-gangs-jc2kvtkrn (£££)
    It's just a disaster.

    Personally I'd put maximum security prisons for violent prisoners in Sub-Saharan Africa. Give the inmates a good helping of Bible, Birch and Bread and Water. See how stabby they feel then.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,074

    You learn something new every day.

    Judges can refuse the release of court transcripts. I'm struggling to understand this one since a court is an open place. And why is it so expensive to obtain the documents? I presume every word gets recorded anyway doesn't it?

    It gets recorded but it doesn't get printed. That costs just over £1k a day. Courts really need to get a grip of speech recognition technology but it struggles when people talk across each other.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,493

    It is very bad that labour are pursuing blue policies. I have given up on them. Labour must grow a god damn back bone. Standing up to Trump and dropping the red lines with the EU are a must.

    Is that why people are voting LibDem?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,613
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
    Just give the job to whoever is best able to apologise for decades of abuse, and centuries of misery, war and death, whilst simultaneously being able to spout a stream of absolute rubbish and appear to believe it all.
    You angling for the job?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,074
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
    Just give the job to whoever is best able to apologise for decades of abuse, and centuries of misery, war and death, whilst simultaneously being able to spout a stream of absolute rubbish and appear to believe it all.
    You missed out "and expects his (and it will be a "he") views on the issues of the day to be listened to with all due deference and respect." I mean, with the greatest of respect to some well meaning people, why?
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 122
    edited April 12
    DavidL said:

    You learn something new every day.

    Judges can refuse the release of court transcripts. I'm struggling to understand this one since a court is an open place. And why is it so expensive to obtain the documents? I presume every word gets recorded anyway doesn't it?

    It gets recorded but it doesn't get printed. That costs just over £1k a day. Courts really need to get a grip of speech recognition technology but it struggles when people talk across each other.
    And judges can refuse to release in the name of the 'public interest' even when people are willing to pay.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,339


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam

    10% ‘universal’ tariff now riddled with exemptions for many with massive trade surpluses

    🇻🇳 $124bn surplus 30% exempted
    🇹🇼 $74bn surplus 64% exempted ac to Capital.

    Whereas ally 🇬🇧 which on 🇺🇸 figures has $12bn deficit… faces 25% on biggest goods exports - cars & pharma.

    Trump doesn't have allies.
    In the free world, at least.

    Trump is frustrated with both sides of Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    With Russia because they won't stop the mass murder and with Ukraine because they won't just die already.

    https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1910764921538961545
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,339

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
    Just give the job to whoever is best able to apologise for decades of abuse, and centuries of misery, war and death, whilst simultaneously being able to spout a stream of absolute rubbish and appear to believe it all.
    You angling for the job?
    Ian could go the first part, if you volunteer for the second.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,776

    It is very bad that labour are pursuing blue policies. I have given up on them. Labour must grow a god damn back bone. Standing up to Trump and dropping the red lines with the EU are a must.

    Starmer wants another Labour majority, for which they need to avoid losing redwall Leave seats to Reform and southern Leave marginal seats to the Tories. A policy of rejoining the EEA and free movement and customs union won't help them do that.

    If they had that policy they may as well just give up hope of a majority and prepare for a minority government propped up by the LDs and SNP and Greens (even if that looks more likely than another Labour majority on most polls)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,776
    edited April 12

    What do people think about the prospects of Katie Lam as next Conservative party leader? Still available at 100/1.

    In a few elections time maybe, she backed Jenrick last time so would probably back him again if Kemi loses the next GE and Jenrick runs for leader a second time and hope for a senior Shadow Cabinet post to raise her profile
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,776
    Leon said:

    Sounds like a serious incident at HMP Frankland

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz95kggw7nxo

    What a nice chap...
    https://x.com/shabanamahmood/status/1911097648385241356

    I am appalled by the attack of three brave officers at HMP Frankland today. My thoughts are with them and their families.

    The police are now investigating. I will be pushing for the strongest possible punishment. Violence against our staff will never be tolerated.
    The strongest possible punishment being imprisonment? Hmm.

    Meanwhile, if he threw boiling oil over them, perhaps it is time to revisit the guidelines on who can work in prison kitchens.
    They could put him in solitary confinement. It seems somewhat justified in the circumstances.
    Just execute him. Enough. He killed dozens of young girls. He’s 100% guilty. He’s now injuring more

    Hang him
    He is serving a 55 year jail sentence anyway
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,947
    Ratters said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
    Just give the job to whoever is best able to apologise for decades of abuse, and centuries of misery, war and death, whilst simultaneously being able to spout a stream of absolute rubbish and appear to believe it all.
    Speaking as an atheist, should they consider giving the job to someone who will focus on promoting Christianity in the England and more widely?

    I'm obviously fine if they don't, but it strikes me as something someone with that job title might want to consider.
    I'm an atheist too, but I would have lot more respect for the CoE if , just once, I heard the AoC say " Christianity is right , and Islam is wrong".
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,613
    DavidL said:

    You learn something new every day.

    Judges can refuse the release of court transcripts. I'm struggling to understand this one since a court is an open place. And why is it so expensive to obtain the documents? I presume every word gets recorded anyway doesn't it?

    It gets recorded but it doesn't get printed. That costs just over £1k a day. Courts really need to get a grip of speech recognition technology but it struggles when people talk across each other.
    I had a short term job once operating the tape recorder and writing down times and headings, which transcribers use to work out which bit to transcribe. What I learned, mostly, was that most trials are boring.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,241


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam


    10% ‘universal’ tariff now riddled with exemptions for many with massive trade surpluses

    🇻🇳 $124bn surplus 30% exempted
    🇹🇼 $74bn surplus 64% exempted ac to Capital.

    Whereas ally 🇬🇧 which on 🇺🇸 figures has $12bn deficit… faces 25% on biggest goods exports - cars & pharma.

    Who thought it was a good idea to put a simpleton in charge?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,776

    Ratters said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Like anyone cares.
    At risk of triggering an avalanche, I am sure Hyufd will.
    Just give the job to whoever is best able to apologise for decades of abuse, and centuries of misery, war and death, whilst simultaneously being able to spout a stream of absolute rubbish and appear to believe it all.
    Speaking as an atheist, should they consider giving the job to someone who will focus on promoting Christianity in the England and more widely?

    I'm obviously fine if they don't, but it strikes me as something someone with that job title might want to consider.
    I'm an atheist too, but I would have lot more respect for the CoE if , just once, I heard the AoC say " Christianity is right , and Islam is wrong".
    There are some overlaps, both believe in the God of Abraham, Muslims still see Jesus as a prophet just don't believe in the Trinity
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,982
    @SullyCNBC

    Apple shares up double the market on Friday. One day ahead of the big tariff exemption.

    https://x.com/SullyCNBC/status/1911086473832542569
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,074
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OllyT said:

    How lomg before Reform also disappoints?

    I suspect they will be pretty rubbish at running councils. Speaking of which, how would Farage resolve the bins in Brum? Maybe someone would like to ask him. Unless they have some ex-counsellors in their ranks - maybe defectors from the Tories? - they will be pretty clueless from day one.

    The truth is that no party has the answers to our problems.

    Hard, long-term decisions are required but if anyone attempted to be really honest with the electorate they would howl and whine because a substantial wedge of the electorate want everything to be excellent (healthcare, education, defence) but don't want to pay the price necessary (not personally at least). No party can square that circle so the voters lurch about latching on to the next snake-oil salesman.

    Like it or not autocracies have the upper hand over democracies in this respect which is why I also expect China to win its battle with Trump.
    I’ve been saying for a while. Democracy is dwindling - and it is probably doomed over time. A relatively brief experiment in the context of human history

    There are multiple reasons for this. Just one is the greater ability of autocracies to make difficult long term decisions
    Stop it. It is most unnerving when you make a point that is both controversial and correct for once. It really makes me wonder if I have got it wrong.
    I’m doing a Gazette piece about it. So you’ll be able to luxuriate in the unnervingness at even greater length

    Right. Fuck the “Tien Shan foothills and canyons”. Most boring place on earth. It’s Gooly Archypoo on the car stereo and back to places that understand “gin”
    I know you don't have the attention span to read an actual book you didn't write, but may I recommend "how to rig an election" https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300279467/how-to-rig-an-election/

    If you combine that with Applebaum's work on "The Twilight Of Democracy" and "Autocracies Inc" the article writes itself.

    Knowing your prediction for AI you may already have done that, of course. 😀

    Lord Sumption has a new book out on defending democracy and rule of law.
    I once gave a talk on his judgment in Hughes-Holland-v-BPE Solicitors and another, a case concerning the extent of liability for professional negligence by professional advisors. I said: "At the risk of bringing on deep feelings of inadequacy and insecurity I would commend a careful reading of the whole judgment. It is a magisterial piece of work. "


    Anyone so inclined can read it here: https://supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2014-0026

    He writes with the extraordinary clarity of the truly brilliant. This, of course, does not mean that he is right all the time, especially when he goes beyond his own competence in the law into more political matters. But he really isn't someone who you have to puzzle what he really means. I have a pile of unread books right now but I am seriously tempted.
    I know lawyers live on a different plane in terms of prolixity, but that judgement from the word "Introduction" to the end of para 19 is 3,524 words long. That's nearly two whole Ydoethurs.
    Cracking stuff though. Just like @ydoethur, natch.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,993


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam


    10% ‘universal’ tariff now riddled with exemptions for many with massive trade surpluses

    🇻🇳 $124bn surplus 30% exempted
    🇹🇼 $74bn surplus 64% exempted ac to Capital.

    Whereas ally 🇬🇧 which on 🇺🇸 figures has $12bn deficit… faces 25% on biggest goods exports - cars & pharma.

    Who thought it was a good idea to put a simpleton in charge?
    That’s very offensive to simpletons.

    Dave, who shouts at pigeons, and lives near Tesco Local is a simpleton. I’ve spoke with him, and he isn’t a Hidden Intellectual.

    He doesn’t start pointless fights with people if things vaguely his own size, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OllyT said:

    How lomg before Reform also disappoints?

    I suspect they will be pretty rubbish at running councils. Speaking of which, how would Farage resolve the bins in Brum? Maybe someone would like to ask him. Unless they have some ex-counsellors in their ranks - maybe defectors from the Tories? - they will be pretty clueless from day one.

    The truth is that no party has the answers to our problems.

    Hard, long-term decisions are required but if anyone attempted to be really honest with the electorate they would howl and whine because a substantial wedge of the electorate want everything to be excellent (healthcare, education, defence) but don't want to pay the price necessary (not personally at least). No party can square that circle so the voters lurch about latching on to the next snake-oil salesman.

    Like it or not autocracies have the upper hand over democracies in this respect which is why I also expect China to win its battle with Trump.
    I’ve been saying for a while. Democracy is dwindling - and it is probably doomed over time. A relatively brief experiment in the context of human history

    There are multiple reasons for this. Just one is the greater ability of autocracies to make difficult long term decisions
    Stop it. It is most unnerving when you make a point that is both controversial and correct for once. It really makes me wonder if I have got it wrong.
    I’m doing a Gazette piece about it. So you’ll be able to luxuriate in the unnervingness at even greater length

    Right. Fuck the “Tien Shan foothills and canyons”. Most boring place on earth. It’s Gooly Archypoo on the car stereo and back to places that understand “gin”
    I know you don't have the attention span to read an actual book you didn't write, but may I recommend "how to rig an election" https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300279467/how-to-rig-an-election/

    If you combine that with Applebaum's work on "The Twilight Of Democracy" and "Autocracies Inc" the article writes itself.

    Knowing your prediction for AI you may already have done that, of course. 😀

    Lord Sumption has a new book out on defending democracy and rule of law.
    I once gave a talk on his judgment in Hughes-Holland-v-BPE Solicitors and another, a case concerning the extent of liability for professional negligence by professional advisors. I said: "At the risk of bringing on deep feelings of inadequacy and insecurity I would commend a careful reading of the whole judgment. It is a magisterial piece of work. "


    Anyone so inclined can read it here: https://supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2014-0026

    He writes with the extraordinary clarity of the truly brilliant. This, of course, does not mean that he is right all the time, especially when he goes beyond his own competence in the law into more political matters. But he really isn't someone who you have to puzzle what he really means. I have a pile of unread books right now but I am seriously tempted.
    I know lawyers live on a different plane in terms of prolixity, but that judgement from the word "Introduction" to the end of para 19 is 3,524 words long. That's nearly two whole Ydoethurs.
    Cracking stuff though. Just like @ydoethur, natch.
    Why thank you.

    I can live for two months on a good compliment, and I may need to if Mr Small One doesn't stop dicking around with the economy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,776
    edited April 12
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Absolutely NOT.

    Snow is an evangelical and you CANNOT have an evangelical like Snow following an evangelical like Welby as the Anglo Catholic wing of the C of E would correctly go mad. The pattern is always Catholic followed by evangelical eg Catholic Runcie - evangelical Carey - Catholic Williams - evangelical Welby etc to respect the fact the C of E is a Catholic but Reformed church.

    Personally I would go for the Bishop of Chelmsford if Ussher is out, Parish and safeguarding focused, less political than Welby, from a family that had to flee Iran after the revolution and a woman. After the dodgy safeguarding record of some male priests and bishops and after 10 years of women Bishops in the C of E it is time for a woman Archbishop of Canterbury

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,982
    The Mad King's handling of the tariff fiasco is less Art of the deal, more Shart of the deal
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,228
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Absolutely NOT.

    Snow is an evangelical and you CANNOT have an evangelical like Snow following an evangelical like Welby as the Anglo Catholic wing of the C of E would correctly go mad. The pattern is always Catholic followed by evangelical eg Catholic Runcie - evangelical Carey - Catholic Williams - evangelical Welby etc to respect the fact the C of E is a Catholic but Reformed church.

    Personally I would go for the Bishop of Chelmsford if Ussher is out, Parish and safeguarding focused, less political than Welby, from a family that had to flee Iran after the revolution and a woman. After the dodgy safeguarding record of some male priests and bishops and after 10 years of women Bishops in the C of E it is time for a woman Archbishop of Canterbury

    You see now why anyone who is betting on this should be betting on a deadlock...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,993
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, as we build up to Easter there is some news on Canterbury, which I haven't seen discussed (although I have been busy so I may have missed it).

    Graham Ussher is out of the running. He has agreed to serve on the CNC which rules him out.

    As the clear front runner and the best candidate available, that makes some difference to the betting.

    The frontrunner now should probably be Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester.

    However - my money would actually be on a deadlock and no appointment at least this year.

    Absolutely NOT.

    Snow is an evangelical and you CANNOT have an evangelical like Snow following an evangelical like Welby as the Anglo Catholic wing of the C of E would correctly go mad. The pattern is always Catholic followed by evangelical eg Catholic Runcie - evangelical Carey - Catholic Williams - evangelical Welby etc to respect the fact the C of E is a Catholic but Reformed church.

    Personally I would go for the Bishop of Chelmsford if Ussher is out, Parish and safeguarding focused, less political than Welby, from a family that had to flee Iran after the revolution and a woman. After the dodgy safeguarding record of some male priests and bishops and after 10 years of women Bishops in the C of E it is time for a woman Archbishop of Canterbury

    Time to set the place on fire - bible bashing and burn some heretics….
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,613
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OllyT said:

    How lomg before Reform also disappoints?

    I suspect they will be pretty rubbish at running councils. Speaking of which, how would Farage resolve the bins in Brum? Maybe someone would like to ask him. Unless they have some ex-counsellors in their ranks - maybe defectors from the Tories? - they will be pretty clueless from day one.

    The truth is that no party has the answers to our problems.

    Hard, long-term decisions are required but if anyone attempted to be really honest with the electorate they would howl and whine because a substantial wedge of the electorate want everything to be excellent (healthcare, education, defence) but don't want to pay the price necessary (not personally at least). No party can square that circle so the voters lurch about latching on to the next snake-oil salesman.

    Like it or not autocracies have the upper hand over democracies in this respect which is why I also expect China to win its battle with Trump.
    I’ve been saying for a while. Democracy is dwindling - and it is probably doomed over time. A relatively brief experiment in the context of human history

    There are multiple reasons for this. Just one is the greater ability of autocracies to make difficult long term decisions
    Stop it. It is most unnerving when you make a point that is both controversial and correct for once. It really makes me wonder if I have got it wrong.
    I’m doing a Gazette piece about it. So you’ll be able to luxuriate in the unnervingness at even greater length

    Right. Fuck the “Tien Shan foothills and canyons”. Most boring place on earth. It’s Gooly Archypoo on the car stereo and back to places that understand “gin”
    I know you don't have the attention span to read an actual book you didn't write, but may I recommend "how to rig an election" https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300279467/how-to-rig-an-election/

    If you combine that with Applebaum's work on "The Twilight Of Democracy" and "Autocracies Inc" the article writes itself.

    Knowing your prediction for AI you may already have done that, of course. 😀

    Lord Sumption has a new book out on defending democracy and rule of law.
    I once gave a talk on his judgment in Hughes-Holland-v-BPE Solicitors and another, a case concerning the extent of liability for professional negligence by professional advisors. I said: "At the risk of bringing on deep feelings of inadequacy and insecurity I would commend a careful reading of the whole judgment. It is a magisterial piece of work. "


    Anyone so inclined can read it here: https://supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2014-0026

    He writes with the extraordinary clarity of the truly brilliant. This, of course, does not mean that he is right all the time, especially when he goes beyond his own competence in the law into more political matters. But he really isn't someone who you have to puzzle what he really means. I have a pile of unread books right now but I am seriously tempted.
    I know lawyers live on a different plane in terms of prolixity, but that judgement from the word "Introduction" to the end of para 19 is 3,524 words long. That's nearly two whole Ydoethurs.
    Cracking stuff though. Just like @ydoethur, natch.
    I read it too. Do you know why the complaint against the actual fraudster himself failed? Taking money which you claim is investment, but you actually use to pay off an existing charge against the property, effectively funneling it directly to yourself, must be criminal surely?
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