On other news, just got back from a rather splendid long weekend away with friends. Three days totally devoid of politics, political discussion and plenty of fun and games in the sunshine.
Legoland was absolutely heaving, but fun nonetheless.
(*) Usual caveats apply...
China's manoeuvres are actually a reaction to Indian provocations over the past few weeks, whereby Delhi appears to have been testing the new leadership in Beijing. The last two times India tried such a strategy it ended in war.
Next week there will be a local by-election in Rotherham. The former Children's and Young People Cabinet Minister turned Police and Crime Commissioner has resigned his council seat to concentrate on his new job. His wife is standing to replace him. Her mother, grandmother and great-grandfather have been all on the council. UKIP polled 32% in that ward in 2008.
They could use that as an experiment. Mention the grooming but focus on the political establishment covering it up rather than the grooming itself - which is counter-productive for various reasons.
On other news, just got back from a rather splendid long weekend away with friends. Three days totally devoid of politics, political discussion and plenty of fun and games in the sunshine.
Legoland was absolutely heaving, but fun nonetheless.
(*) Usual caveats apply...
China's manoeuvres are actually a reaction to Indian provocations over the past few weeks, whereby Delhi appears to have been testing the new leadership in Beijing. The last two times India tried such a strategy it ended in war.
Oliver, unless something is going very badly wrong, the principal opposition should gain council seats. Even in 1998, the Conservatives gained council seats. The question is whether those gains are good enough.
@TimMontgomerie: In his 2,000 word essay Lord Lawson also suggests any attempt at renegotiation by Cameron will be "inconsequential" http://t.co/oE69tuk7gl £
I think we knew that
If no one believes Toilet Paper Dave in the UK why should they in Europe?
Oliver, unless something is going very badly wrong, the principal opposition should gain council seats. Even in 1998, the Conservatives gained council seats. The question is whether those gains are good enough.
Taken at face value you would think a majority Conservative government should be the favourite outcome for 2015 given that almost the same number of people would be positive about either a Con/Lab majority, but Cameron remains much more popular than Miliband.
Let's be clear: Labour are winning. They are ahead in the polls and they are gaining seats at elections.
In the face of this, they decide to change the conversation. It's not about polls or electoral success, the story is now leadership ratings and UKIP.
In the press, the left is always losing - even when they are winning.
This is because the press has been capture by the right, largely by owners who want to influence public opinion to look after their own interests. Just look towards the BBC's appointment of the former editor of The Times, who aggressively pushed The Times editorial stance to the right and was appointed to appease laughable right-wing accusations of bias. It's no surprise that UKIP coverage during the local elections was practically sycophantic, with barely a mention of Labour's electoral gains.
Thankfully, none of this matters at the ballot box. Money, power and influence can't (yet) directly buy votes.
What a laugh! There is no-one like Labour for forging postal votes, especially in Muslim areas or densely populated ethnic wards. If this is not buying votes, what is?
Interesting divergence between desired outcomes and predictions. I wonder if that will cost the Conservatives votes because people want the blues to win but don't believe they will and so vote for another party to keep out either the Lib Dems or Labour.
And, whilst I have the opportunity, don't forget that Journey to Altmortis is out and can be had for the small sum of $2.99, (or $1.02 with the code XK87G until 14 May): https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/313503
Keep in mind that at this stage last cycle Mike Huckabee had a big lead in Iowa, with second place belonging to either Romney, Palin or Gingrich. There's a long way to go, though we do at least know Rand will actually run.
You'd be better off leaving the ethnic nationalism to one side and advising UKIP to follow the Tories OAP residential home postal vote harvest. The most likely people to use postal votes are white coffin dodgers, the least likely - younger non whites.
UKIP steal some of that audience and it could put a couple of % on their GE performance
That may me true to an extent, but we do need to do something about postal voting which, as you know, is wide open to abuse.
Mr. K, you're quite right. Postal voting is, we know, wide open to fraud. It needs seriously tightening up and cutting back. For 99%, if you can't be arsed walking a few hundred yards once every five years then your opinion can't be worth all that much.
Naturally, exceptions should be made for the disabled/frail, heavily pregnant women and the armed forces (who should also be able to vote early enough to guarantee their vote being counted).
@MikeK Well the Tories aren't going to do anything about it as they are the main beneficiaries. If you want me to help UKIP in siphoning off a couple of thousand pensioner postal votes from the Conservatives in each marginal seat at the next election I'm willing to provide Farage and co with some strategic advice at a good discount.
You'll have to tackle them straight. I'm no ones intermediary.
Quincel - Indeed, but Santorum was basically a more dull, humourless version of Huckabee anyway. Paul has now led in polls in Iowa and NH in 2016, could well be Hillary v Paul 2016 (probably producing the biggest Democrat victory since LBJ beat Goldwater!)
Quincel - Indeed, but Santorum was basically a more dull, humourless version of Huckabee anyway. Paul has now led in polls in Iowa and NH in 2016, could well be Hillary v Paul 2016 (probably producing the biggest Democrat victory since LBJ beat Goldwater!)
I agree that the poll is good news for Paul (always better to be ahead than behind, no matter how early the polling is), I just wanted to point out that this far out from the primaries the polls have a poor predictive record.
Quincel - It varies eg Romney was always ahead in NH in 2012 as was Hillary in the state in 2008, Iowa tends to favour more conservative candidates on the GOP side so it was no surprise Romney did not lead there in 2012 or Huckabee won it in 2008
If you look at the polling about the leaders, it just the case that those who state a Tory preference say they support Cameron. Most of the people who are not happy, have already jumped ship to UKIP. With those who indicate a VI of Labour, they are being honest that they are not totally convinced by Miliband, but it does not mean that they will not stick with Labour in 2015.
' I'm willing to provide Farage and co with some strategic advice at a good discount.'
How about offering some strategic advice to Labour,they need it after last week's underwhelming results.
Why not make a PPB for Labour telling us how mass immigration has made Londons schools better by replacing racist white british Londoners with foreigners, how it has reduced crime and sorted the economy? You could have a clip of OAPs crying outside the house they used to call home while being called coffin dodgers by a young gay married Polish/Somalian couple.
Just looking over my outsanding bets I've got 16/1 on Chris Huhne to be next LD leader. Doesn't look good at the moment
Just checked mine, I have a few quid on Gove for next permanent Conservative leader at William Hill, but they seem to have taken down the Tory Leadership market.
Just looking over my outsanding bets I've got 16/1 on Chris Huhne to be next LD leader. Doesn't look good at the moment
Think Nick Clegg has got passed the unpopular stage, will win his seat again in 2015 and lead a smaller party. I just don't think they have an alternative candidate who would stand against Clegg in any leadership contest. Tim Farron always comes across well, but I don't think he has any wish to take over as leader. Simon Hughes would be popular, but I don't think he is a natural leader.
' I'm willing to provide Farage and co with some strategic advice at a good discount.'
How about offering some strategic advice to Labour,they need it after last week's underwhelming results.
Why not make a PPB for Labour telling us how mass immigration has made Londons schools better by replacing racist white british Londoners with foreigners, how it has reduced crime and sorted the economy? You could have a clip of OAPs crying outside the house they used to call home while being called coffin dodgers by a young gay married Polish/Somalian couple.
Yes, she did thanks, clearly not rushing to congratulate Tone on reaching his sixth decade, George Clooney is also 52 today apparently and Lord Hutton 58
My flabber was well and truly ghasted that this was Nick Clegg's parliamentary aide and he was put up on a serious political programme to spin for him. He doesn't sound old enough to be the leader of the lib dem youth division. It's excruciating but it does point to Clegg being totally insulated from reality these days. Or "back in the saddle" as he so memorably put it.
Oh for the days of Chatshow Chariie! Preferably, of course, sober! Or fairly so, anyway.
Sober or not he knew just what a lib dem tory coalition would mean for the lib dems in scotland while Clegg and little Danny still don't seem to get it.
I know Duncan well from his time at Uni (spent the best part of 3 years sparring with him). Charming fellow, but an absolute lightweight.
What was surreal, though, was I could predict his answers before he gave them. I know he's a kid, but that was a pretty poor effort.
Charles - On present trends he will be leader of the LDs and maybe even Deputy PM in a decade or 2!
What's even more worrying was that Sam Gyimah was another one.. I shudder to think what advice they are giving (although my all time favourite 'gal ended up advising Tony Blair on pensions policy...)
Charles - Indeed, obviously more theoretical than practical experience, mind you Pitt was PM at 24 so youth should be no barrier if you are good enough I suppose
Charles - Indeed, obviously more theoretical than practical experience, mind you Pitt was PM at 24 so youth should be no barrier if you are good enough I suppose
Much more delegated power then - with communications so slow basically the job just involved picking the right people for different postings and then answering the odd letter or two.
' I'm willing to provide Farage and co with some strategic advice at a good discount.'
How about offering some strategic advice to Labour,they need it after last week's underwhelming results.
Why not make a PPB for Labour telling us how mass immigration has made Londons schools better by replacing racist white british Londoners with foreigners, how it has reduced crime and sorted the economy? You could have a clip of OAPs crying outside the house they used to call home while being called coffin dodgers by a young gay married Polish/Somalian couple.
Well Done! I wish i had said that.
I'm sure you have seen this, but just in case... It would be funny it wasn't true... I wonder if any of those featured post on here
@Sam. Given that you see the Rivers of Blood speech as an example of wishy washy centrism perhaps we could have some more historical reflections. How about "Mosley, fighting for the traditional East Ender oppressed by bagels"
Poor effort. Untrue smear and really unfunny.
I know loony leftys don't like competition but come on, up your game
O/T: I forget if TimT is DC-based, but if he happens to read this - I'll be in Washington (more precisely the Kellogg Hotel) for two nights from tomorrow (Tuesday) - I'm speaking at a Food and Drug Administration event. We missed each other when you were in the UK, but happy to meet if you're around and see this.
Any tips from anyone on things to do? I've been to DC before and did the obvious touristy things, but I'm not especially into staring at buildings and monuments.
@Sam. Given that you see the Rivers of Blood speech as an example of wishy washy centrism perhaps we could have some more historical reflections. How about "Mosley, fighting for the traditional East Ender oppressed by bagels" "Gentile flight, a retrospective" "Going to the Isle of Dogs, Huguenots and the desecration of traditional London"
the edit made it even unfunnier, congrats, didn't think it possible
O/T: I forget if TimT is DC-based, but if he happens to read this - I'll be in Washington (more precisely the Kellogg Hotel) for two nights from tomorrow (Tuesday) - I'm speaking at a Food and Drug Administration event. We missed each other when you were in the UK, but happy to meet if you're around and see this.
Any tips from anyone on things to do? I've been to DC before and did the obvious touristy things, but I'm not especially into staring at buildings and monuments.
Nick, amazingly I read this. I rarely come on PB these days. I am around until the weekend then off to China. You can email me at work on trevan@iclscharter.org about meeting up. Hope it works out this time.
Any tips from anyone on things to do? I've been to DC before and did the obvious touristy things, but I'm not especially into staring at buildings and monuments.
You could visit Fort McHenry in Baltimore, or rent a car and drive the 90 minutes to Gettysburg.
A day trip up to Frederick is also an idea, small market town America. It also has the fascinating Museum of Civil War Medicine, showing the origins of triage and the first US ambulance service.
O/T: I forget if TimT is DC-based, but if he happens to read this - I'll be in Washington (more precisely the Kellogg Hotel) for two nights from tomorrow (Tuesday) - I'm speaking at a Food and Drug Administration event. We missed each other when you were in the UK, but happy to meet if you're around and see this.
Any tips from anyone on things to do? I've been to DC before and did the obvious touristy things, but I'm not especially into staring at buildings and monuments.
When I was in Jersey last week, the cherry blossoms were out in force. I've only been to Washington once before (and spent most of my time in a dark room with my FTC lawyers) but think it is famous for them. Can't be more precise than that.
“Help to Buy is a reckless scheme that uses public money to incentivise the banks to lend precisely to those individuals who, absent the scheme, would not and should not be offered credit," said Andrew Brigden, a senior economist at Fathom. "Had we been asked to design a policy that would guarantee maximum damage to the UK’s long-term growth prospects and its fragile credit rating, this would be it.” The consultancy said that the scheme could push up house prices by almost 30pc from the current average of £233,000, according to the Office for National Statistics.
That was evident.
But the Fathom report is even more unconvincing than Daily Express front page predictions.
Banks will exercise exactly the same credit risk assessment on first time buyer applicants as they did before the scheme was launched. The amount of deposit paid is not indicative of a potential buyer's ability to meet interest and capital repayment costs.
The banks are constrained from lending by capital and regulatory requirements. The 75% average loan to value ratio is determined to protect against bank and general economic risk rather than borrower risk.
The schemes are limited in term and have take-up caps. The volume of intervention by the government is nowhere near the scale needed to fuel 30% house price inflation. There are levers in place to protect against the unlikely event of house prices running well above rates expected during the life of the scheme.
Nonetheless, 30% house price rises makes good copy for the front page of the Express and the throwaway cautionary line in the Fathom Consulting report provides much needed PR coverage for a minor consulting group.
Thought you two might have something to say on Lawsons comments that Cameron's renegotions in Europe will be inconsequential.
They may well be. That depends on our EU friends.
Given that the current situation is unacceptable (and seems to be getting worse, with even the City - the reddest of red lines - at risk), it's very simple. If they don't come up with some decent concessions, they risk the UK leaving as a result of the referendum which Cameron will call, if he has a majority.
Certainly the most irrational of all positions is the Labour one of sticking their heads in the sands, and the second most irrational is the UKIP one of recognising some of the problems, and responding by actively working for a Labour government, which would guarantee no progress of any sort.
Thought you two might have something to say on Lawsons comments that Cameron's renegotions in Europe will be inconsequential.
We really need a speech from Dave to put this Europe issue to bed
My view is that the FCO should get on with its EU competences work; Cameron and Hague should continue to develop the coalition of interests with Germany; and then wait for the Eurozone to implode.
How long do you think that Spain can sustain rising 27% adult and 50% plus youth unemployment; GDP contraction at 1.5% per annum; and banks about to keel over under the weight of over-valued mortgage loans and unsaleable repossessed properties?
BTW, are there YouGov on bank holidays? If not, any post-electiion UKIP surge may have abated by the time they get round to polling for it by tomorrow. Or not, which would be interesting.
When I was in Jersey last week, the cherry blossoms were out in force. I've only been to Washington once before (and spent most of my time in a dark room with my FTC lawyers) but think it is famous for them. Can't be more precise than that.
What are you saying to the FDA?
'tis a bit O/T but since you asked... As you probably know, the EU has banned testing on animals for cosmetics, in view of the availability of equally good or better (though in some cases more expensive) non-animal methods for most purposes. The International Committee on Cosmetics Regulation is holding a consultative meeting in July of the regulatory bodies in the US, Japan and Canada (with Brazil and China also taking an inhterest) and the issue will certainly come up whether others should follow the EU lead. The FDA is consulting on what the US should say at this meeting, and I'm speaking as Director of Policy for Cruelty Free International; as you'd expect, we argue that others should follow suit. Similar efforts are in train for Japan and Canada and I'm talking to Chinese regulators next month.
Thought you two might have something to say on Lawsons comments that Cameron's renegotions in Europe will be inconsequential.
They may well be. That depends on our EU friends.
Given that the current situation is unacceptable (and seems to be getting worse, with even the City - the reddest of red lines - at risk), it's very simple. If they don't come up with some decent concessions, they risk the UK leaving as a result of the referendum which Cameron will call, if he has a majority.
Certainly the most irrational of all positions is the Labour one of sticking their heads in the sands, and the second most irrational is the UKIP one of recognising some of the problems, and responding by actively working for a Labour government, which would guarantee no progress of any sort.
Don't you think the problem in voting for Cameron if you want out of the EU is that you are voting for someone who wants to stay in it, and will use his position as PM, if he wins in 2015,to give the impression he has a mandate to push for staying in?
In all likelihood, if UKIP continue to be successful, a labour government will have to call a referendum to match Cameron's "promise"
Staffordshire, changes since 2010 general election:
(Excluding the 3 Stoke-on-Trent constituencies isn't perfect because Stoke-on-Trent North contains a lot of voters from Newcastle borough)
Con -9.82% Lab +1.16% UKIP +18.85% LD -13.69% Green +0.52% Others +2.98%
Swing, Con to Lab: 5.49%.
That swing is sufficient for Labour to take their easiest target in Staffs, Cannock Chase, but not enough for any of the more difficult targets like Burton or Stafford.
"and will use his position as PM, if he wins in 2015,to give the impression he has a mandate to push for staying in?"
Cameron will only have one vote in his planned EU referendum so I can't see how his view will affect the overall result.
"In all likelihood, if UKIP continue to be successful, a labour government will have to call a referendum to match Cameron's "promise""
That would be Labour who went to court to argue that a manifesto commitment on a referendum was not legally binding? Also, an increasing UKIP vote share makes a Labour government more likely so I don't think they will worry about UKIP.
Staffordshire, changes since 2010 general election:
(Excluding the 3 Stoke-on-Trent constituencies isn't perfect because Stoke-on-Trent North contains a lot of voters from Newcastle borough)
Con -9.82% Lab +1.16% UKIP +18.85% LD -13.69% Green +0.52% Others +2.98%
Swing, Con to Lab: 5.49%.
That swing is sufficient for Labour to take their easiest target in Staffs, Cannock Chase, but not enough for any of the more difficult targets like Burton or Stafford.
While the figures are interesting, surely the "swing Con to Lab" is not a helpful shorthand, as Labour gained very few votes. "Swing Coalition to UKIP" would surely be a more accurate description? I appreciate that votes for UKIP are likely to aid the Labour party, at least in seats where they were second in 2010.
Is anyone else absolutely fed up to the back teeth of hearing the guy on BBC news complaining about the fact that his Dutch wife isn't going to be able to receive his pension despite the fact that she's never lived or worked in the UK?
“Help to Buy is a reckless scheme that uses public money to incentivise the banks to lend precisely to those individuals who, absent the scheme, would not and should not be offered credit," said Andrew Brigden, a senior economist at Fathom. "Had we been asked to design a policy that would guarantee maximum damage to the UK’s long-term growth prospects and its fragile credit rating, this would be it.” The consultancy said that the scheme could push up house prices by almost 30pc from the current average of £233,000, according to the Office for National Statistics.
That was evident.
But the Fathom report is even more unconvincing than Daily Express front page predictions.
Banks will exercise exactly the same credit risk assessment on first time buyer applicants as they did before the scheme was launched. The amount of deposit paid is not indicative of a potential buyer's ability to meet interest and capital repayment costs.
The banks are constrained from lending by capital and regulatory requirements. The 75% average loan to value ratio is determined to protect against bank and general economic risk rather than borrower risk.
The schemes are limited in term and have take-up caps. The volume of intervention by the government is nowhere near the scale needed to fuel 30% house price inflation. There are levers in place to protect against the unlikely event of house prices running well above rates expected during the life of the scheme.
Nonetheless, 30% house price rises makes good copy for the front page of the Express and the throwaway cautionary line in the Fathom Consulting report provides much needed PR coverage for a minor consulting group.
It's a bloody stupid policy, Avery.
The banks with significant exposure to UK house prices are basically insolvent. This is a fairly naked attempt to try to make them solvent by reflating the housing bubble - if it succeeds, young people at the bottom of the housing ladder pay for it. If it fails, future taxpayers pick up the tab.
“Help to Buy is a reckless scheme that uses public money to incentivise the banks to lend precisely to those individuals who, absent the scheme, would not and should not be offered credit," said Andrew Brigden, a senior economist at Fathom. "Had we been asked to design a policy that would guarantee maximum damage to the UK’s long-term growth prospects and its fragile credit rating, this would be it.” The consultancy said that the scheme could push up house prices by almost 30pc from the current average of £233,000, according to the Office for National Statistics.
That was evident.
But the Fathom report is even more unconvincing than Daily Express front page predictions.
Banks will exercise exactly the same credit risk assessment on first time buyer applicants as they did before the scheme was launched. The amount of deposit paid is not indicative of a potential buyer's ability to meet interest and capital repayment costs.
The banks are constrained from lending by capital and regulatory requirements. The 75% average loan to value ratio is determined to protect against bank and general economic risk rather than borrower risk.
The schemes are limited in term and have take-up caps. The volume of intervention by the government is nowhere near the scale needed to fuel 30% house price inflation. There are levers in place to protect against the unlikely event of house prices running well above rates expected during the life of the scheme.
Nonetheless, 30% house price rises makes good copy for the front page of the Express and the throwaway cautionary line in the Fathom Consulting report provides much needed PR coverage for a minor consulting group.
Morgan Morgan Giles, who was the oldest living MP, died on 4th May aged 98. The oldest living former MP is now John Freeman, Labour MP for Watford 1945-55:
Is anyone else absolutely fed up to the back teeth of hearing the guy on BBC news complaining about the fact that his Dutch wife isn't going to be able to receive his pension despite the fact that she's never lived or worked in the UK?
She's going to "starve to death", apparently.
I though Dutch pensions are significantly more generous than ours. He may be quids in.
Mr. K, you're quite right. Postal voting is, we know, wide open to fraud. It needs seriously tightening up and cutting back. For 99%, if you can't be arsed walking a few hundred yards once every five years then your opinion can't be worth all that much.
Naturally, exceptions should be made for the disabled/frail, heavily pregnant women and the armed forces (who should also be able to vote early enough to guarantee their vote being counted).
The problem is once you've made all those holes for the frail / pregnant / soldiers the fraudsters can go through those instead, so you end up with very little security gain.
Is anyone else absolutely fed up to the back teeth of hearing the guy on BBC news complaining about the fact that his Dutch wife isn't going to be able to receive his pension despite the fact that she's never lived or worked in the UK?
She's going to "starve to death", apparently.
Er! Just checked and confirmed that the person lives in the Philippines.
Comments
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chola_incident
There was also an incident in 1987.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2013/05/05/carville-ted-cruz-most-talented-and-fearless-republican-politician#ixzz2SRCOL2ng
Pirates of the Caribbean is on BBC1 right now
http://dailycaller.com/2013/05/06/early-2016-poll-rand-paul-holds-big-lead-in-iowa/
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3757562.ece
Ask not what Rotherham council can do for the people of Rotherham.
Ask instead what Rotherham council can do for you personally.
Municipal fops.
Taken at face value you would think a majority Conservative government should be the favourite outcome for 2015 given that almost the same number of people would be positive about either a Con/Lab majority, but Cameron remains much more popular than Miliband.
Personally I'd say nice parts of poor towns probably offer the best quality of life for your money.
With nasty parts of rich towns being the opposite.
What a laugh! There is no-one like Labour for forging postal votes, especially in Muslim areas or densely populated ethnic wards. If this is not buying votes, what is?
Interesting divergence between desired outcomes and predictions. I wonder if that will cost the Conservatives votes because people want the blues to win but don't believe they will and so vote for another party to keep out either the Lib Dems or Labour.
And, whilst I have the opportunity, don't forget that Journey to Altmortis is out and can be had for the small sum of $2.99, (or $1.02 with the code XK87G until 14 May): https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/313503
Keep going.
Naturally, exceptions should be made for the disabled/frail, heavily pregnant women and the armed forces (who should also be able to vote early enough to guarantee their vote being counted).
There's plenty of leftists here who have something interesting to say - tim, southam, old labour, PtP, HGM, Andrea, surbiton, IOS for starters.
All you did was claim some great persecution to do down Labour's success of getting 29% whilst in opposition.
And, if she's healthy and runs, is Clinton a dead cert?
Mandela made the transition.
They need to get Roger Milla a job in the cabinet office!
' I'm willing to provide Farage and co with some strategic advice at a good discount.'
How about offering some strategic advice to Labour,they need it after last week's underwhelming results.
Were you pi55ed or trying to be ironic ?
vine.co/v/b2mTetaBgTg
http://www.aol.co.uk/video/the-duchess-of-cambridge-is-expecting-a-baby-boy-according-to-prince-harry/517770385/
What was surreal, though, was I could predict his answers before he gave them. I know he's a kid, but that was a pretty poor effort.
Nigel Lawson calls for UK to leave EU.
And almost certainly as reliable a prediction as the Daily Express's weather forecasts and expectations for arthritis relief.
I'm sure you have seen this, but just in case... It would be funny it wasn't true... I wonder if any of those featured post on here
http://youtu.be/COt65HZCJaA
I know loony leftys don't like competition but come on, up your game
Any tips from anyone on things to do? I've been to DC before and did the obvious touristy things, but I'm not especially into staring at buildings and monuments.
Nick, amazingly I read this. I rarely come on PB these days. I am around until the weekend then off to China. You can email me at work on trevan@iclscharter.org about meeting up. Hope it works out this time.
You could visit Fort McHenry in Baltimore, or rent a car and drive the 90 minutes to Gettysburg.
Baltimore also has a good aquarium.
What are you saying to the FDA?
I won't be joining you on this.
But the Fathom report is even more unconvincing than Daily Express front page predictions.
Banks will exercise exactly the same credit risk assessment on first time buyer applicants as they did before the scheme was launched. The amount of deposit paid is not indicative of a potential buyer's ability to meet interest and capital repayment costs.
The banks are constrained from lending by capital and regulatory requirements. The 75% average loan to value ratio is determined to protect against bank and general economic risk rather than borrower risk.
The schemes are limited in term and have take-up caps. The volume of intervention by the government is nowhere near the scale needed to fuel 30% house price inflation. There are levers in place to protect against the unlikely event of house prices running well above rates expected during the life of the scheme.
Nonetheless, 30% house price rises makes good copy for the front page of the Express and the throwaway cautionary line in the Fathom Consulting report provides much needed PR coverage for a minor consulting group.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHhKUk9GU1d5R3pIUzdHZ09ZNzAtLUE#gid=0
Votes:
Con 68395, Lab 56172, UKIP 45401, LD 7904, Green 1445, Others 9513.
Total 188830.
Percentages:
Con 36.22%, Lab 29.75%, UKIP 24.04%, LD 4.19%, Green 0.77%, Others 5.04%.
I'm working on changes since 2010 general election.
Given that the current situation is unacceptable (and seems to be getting worse, with even the City - the reddest of red lines - at risk), it's very simple. If they don't come up with some decent concessions, they risk the UK leaving as a result of the referendum which Cameron will call, if he has a majority.
Certainly the most irrational of all positions is the Labour one of sticking their heads in the sands, and the second most irrational is the UKIP one of recognising some of the problems, and responding by actively working for a Labour government, which would guarantee no progress of any sort.
How long do you think that Spain can sustain rising 27% adult and 50% plus youth unemployment; GDP contraction at 1.5% per annum; and banks about to keel over under the weight of over-valued mortgage loans and unsaleable repossessed properties?
And that is just Spain ...
The cherry blossoms sound good!
Don't you think the problem in voting for Cameron if you want out of the EU is that you are voting for someone who wants to stay in it, and will use his position as PM, if he wins in 2015,to give the impression he has a mandate to push for staying in?
In all likelihood, if UKIP continue to be successful, a labour government will have to call a referendum to match Cameron's "promise"
I was only lamenting your absence to Y0kel this afternoon when he was discussing Sarin in Syria.
(Excluding the 3 Stoke-on-Trent constituencies isn't perfect because Stoke-on-Trent North contains a lot of voters from Newcastle borough)
Con -9.82%
Lab +1.16%
UKIP +18.85%
LD -13.69%
Green +0.52%
Others +2.98%
Swing, Con to Lab: 5.49%.
That swing is sufficient for Labour to take their easiest target in Staffs, Cannock Chase, but not enough for any of the more difficult targets like Burton or Stafford.
"and will use his position as PM, if he wins in 2015,to give the impression he has a mandate to push for staying in?"
Cameron will only have one vote in his planned EU referendum so I can't see how his view will affect the overall result.
"In all likelihood, if UKIP continue to be successful, a labour government will have to call a referendum to match Cameron's "promise""
That would be Labour who went to court to argue that a manifesto commitment on a referendum was not legally binding? Also, an increasing UKIP vote share makes a Labour government more likely so I don't think they will worry about UKIP.
She's going to "starve to death", apparently.
https://www.facebook.com/CountyDurhamLabourParty
Well you can ignore that swing and calculate the other swings using the vote changes.
Coalition to UKIP swing would be 21%.
The banks with significant exposure to UK house prices are basically insolvent. This is a fairly naked attempt to try to make them solvent by reflating the housing bubble - if it succeeds, young people at the bottom of the housing ladder pay for it. If it fails, future taxpayers pick up the tab.
My generation get fu@ked either way.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgan_Morgan-Giles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Freeman_(British_politician)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22423878
Heard that geography teaching in UK schools was bad but didn't believe it until now.