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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the new Times-YouGov leader ratings
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the new Times-YouGov leader ratings
Rather than the weekly YouGov “like/dislike” ratings the Times questions askes whether people have a positive or negative view if the named leaders. I think this format is a much better guide and it an approach is used quite widely in the US. Let’s hope that the Time/YouGov continues with it.
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The results of the local government elections that were held across England and on the Isle of Anglesey on Thursday 2 May are not collected centrally. However, they are available from other sources, including the respective local authorities and the BBC.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/
Nothing on votes cast for each party, proportion of votes from postal votes, unused postal votes, spoilt ballots - there doesn't appear to be a common method of collating the data. It also begs a question about the point of The Electoral Commission - what is it for?
If proven this will bring fears of the nightmare scenario come real where there is no control of over stocks. As well as ready stocks, it is possible to make Sarin with the required precursors and there is little doubt that insurgents have at least had some access to such precursors.
As usual people are more optimistic about their own family circumstances than they are for the economy as a whole but they are still extremely pessimistic.
If these numbers start to change in a big way over this year Labour may have a problem.
Clegg's certainly "back in the saddle".
LOL
Perhaps I misinterpreted all the clowns, loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists comments as well ?
Nope, not much doubt about those. Foolish, at best, in my view to insult the voters. They make their decision & politicians should react to that, not denigrate them for it. The only possible mitigation is that the 'closet racist' comment was made in 2006 and so applied to a much smaller portion of the voters than UKIP gets today. But Cameron should have recanted earlier.
You sound as desperate to make excuses for them as you did when you tried to explain away Cameron's lie about "paying down Britain's debts" as another 'misinterpretation.
Not making excuses: I just try to look at what people actually say rather than what the media say they said.
It's a fact that the WWC has lost out from the process of globalisation. Calling them 'life's losers' is a little bit infelicitous (and I can imagine whoever it was smirking at his "pun" while he did it) but there is a kernel of truth. The issue is what policies you come up with to try and ameliorate the pressure they are facing.
Even though I know some people aren't blessed with with brains, I still find it astonishing that about a half dozen Lab supporters want a Con majority, and about the same number want a Con LD coalition.
If you are comparing two data sets then it is important to have comparable axes: currently Clegg's negative 60 looks as significant as Cameron's positive 33 while, in reality, one is almost twice the magnitude of the other.
I know the Lib Dems specialist in bar charts, but please!
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-incursion-leaves-india-verge-crisis-044158564.html
On other news, just got back from a rather splendid long weekend away with friends. Three days totally devoid of politics, political discussion and plenty of fun and games in the sunshine.
Legoland was absolutely heaving, but fun nonetheless.
(*) Usual caveats apply...
This is usually a great resource but unless the subscription gives you more data it's much the same as the rest of the media for the locals. I suspect it's down to the collating problem as you highlight.
http://www.lgcplus.com
His net rating here is -25%. I got the impression at the time of the locals that he was the only political leader to have a net positive rating.
And on that thought I bet the Kims are glad they are in charge in North Korea rather than here. We are seriously unimpressed by our political leaders aren't we? There are at least 100 people on here who think they could do a better job for a start.
2001 Census White British 4,287,861 (59.79%)
2011 Census White British 3,669,284 (44.89%)
Do you think a group of people which has been the target of abuse from the Conservative leadership is going to listen to nuanced explanations as to what "life's losers" might mean?
When that comment was made with 'smirking' by doubtless someone who owes his position to connections not ability? On the same day when Osborne is tweeting pictures of clowns ???
It makes them sound like the sort of people who visited asylums so they could laugh at the inmates.
Do you think the UKIP crowd is going to believe the Cameroons are going to help them when the Cameroons give the impression that their misfortunes are something to laugh at ?
With all this foolishness and infelicitousness coming from the Cameroons don't you think its time for some sackings ?
To get some proper adults in to do proper adult work instead of spoilt brats playing their puerile games ?
@Stark_Dawning:
"If Dorries defected it would be a disaster for Farage and confirm what we already suspected - that UKIP is a rag-tag-and-bobtail outfit comprising low-intellect exhibitionists, flat-Earth conspiracy mongers, the God brigade, assorted mystics and the psychologically fragile. The sane would flee UKIP's support and Farage would be left as a sort of Lord Such figure - grimly unamusing and a little bit tragic."
Don't you get fed up with those posters who are so elliptical and just won't say what they really think?
Even relatively senior figures like David Davis think they have the right to bitch and moan in public.
I rather hope we are seeing the denouement of the political class as a whole - professional politicians with no understanding of what to do once they gain power have been a disaster for the country
Before we start accusing Osborne of generating a housing boom, let's have a look at some ONS statistics, shall we: Now this does rather look to me that the housing price inflators were Blair and Brown rather than Cameron and Osborne.
And whilst we are here, it does look as though Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to be the major beneficiaries of a government intervention to stablilise the residential construction and mortgage provision sectors and housing purchase market.
Who says that Boy George doesn't help the 'losers'?
Not if Cammie publishes a draft bill on his cast iron referendum. Not even if backbench tories force through something on their hilarious referendum on a referendum. They will never believe him and Farage could hardly be much clearer about just what he thinks of Cammie.
Yet despite that obvious mutual loathing we get this. Now either some tory MPs haven't the slightest idea how Farage and Cammie feel about each other or they may be thinking Cammie is not a permanent fixture.
Either way this will not end well for the tory leadership. Europe never does.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/06/sexual-abuse-in-white-community?commentpage=1
"It's time to face up to the problem of sexual abuse in the white community
From Stuart Hall to north Wales, the issue won't go away."
He did stick his head in the other day, but it would be great for PB if he posted more often and, in particular, on this this, his specialist and professional topic.
Thanks for posting that link to the LGA site, it appears has the same limited data as used by much of the media. I would have thought that it was possible for all the Councils to have a common format for reporting the results. How on earth analysis of strengths and weaknesses can be attempted when the raw data is hard to harvest is another matter. If the media have done their own number crunching, they aren't too keen to own up, but some of the analysis almost appears to be based on accepting sweeping statements from political parties without question. As for the Key Ward stuff - I do wonder how that was worked out.
The Oxfordshire CC gave the data for postal votes issued, and returned, as well as details of spoilt ballots at ward level. It might be the only one of the 8 or 9 I looked at which did those things. Even publishing the collected vote totals is beyond the wit of some Local Authorities.
4,287,861 - 3,669,284 = 618,577
I'm putting together a spreadsheet of votes cast for each party by county. I'm about half way through at the moment.
Dorset results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dExxNjV4VHczRXlINTZBdl80NjlKcmc#gid=0
Totals:
Con 44100, UKIP 25524, LD 20965, Lab 14180, Green 4327, Others 4162.
Con 38.94%, UKIP 22.54%, LD 18.51%, Lab 12.52%, Green 3.82%, Others 3.67%.
I can recall years when the first cut was in February. I don't keep a record but I am fairly certain that this is the latest by at least a month and maybe by 6 weeks. This really has been the longest, coldest, wettest spring I can recall. It will take a truly remarkable summer for this not to be a year of cooling.
Purely local viewpoint of course. It seems nicer down south.
http://openelectiondata.org/
;-)
;-)
"In June 2012, the Open Data White Paper was published. It set out how theGovernment is putting data and transparency at the heart of government and publicservices and making it easier for data publishers to release data in standardised,open formats.
The open standards policy will be reviewed in 2014 and may be updated to accountfor technology changes or lessons learned from implementation. Associated actionplans and standards selection activity will be continually updated."
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/78892/Open-Standards-Principles-FINAL.pdf
http://data.gov.uk
That is all.
This weekend has been the first nice one in the NW of England but I managed to miss most of it as I was in Glasgow/Edinburgh seeing family/being a tourist where the weather was not as good.
Like this:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Chav_car.jpeg
http://b.3cdn.net/better/38a382b210f856a0e2_5zm6b1yew.pdf
'Now either some tory MPs haven't the slightest idea how Farage and Cammie feel about each other or they may be thinking Cammie is not a permanent fixture.'
Maybe it's you that's hasn't got the slightest idea?
'Paywall
THE UKIP treasurer says its leadership would rather deal with Boris Johnson than with David Cameron in the run-up to the next election.
Stuart Wheeler, the multimillionaire former Tory donor, said it was “much more likely” that his party could work with the mayor of London than the prime minister on a potential pact in certain constituencies in the 2015 general election.
Nigel Farage’s party does not trust Cameron to deliver a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU and believes Johnson is a truer Eurosceptic.
“If Boris Johnson’s policies were acceptable, which I think on the whole they would be, I would be happy to do that [a deal],” Wheeler said. He suggested that if Johnson became Tory leader, there would be significant potential for talks between the two parties. UKIP insiders indicated last night that Farage shared Wheeler’s view.'
Con 42,740
UKIP 35,754
LD 22,132
Lab 19,969
Green 4,625
Others 10,689
Total: 135,909
Percentages:
Con: 31.45%
UKIP: 26.31%
LD: 16.28%
Lab: 14.69%
Green: 3.40%
Others: 7.86%
Spreadsheet with division results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDdrVS1yQV85SUVwRV9GNFAyOTk0anc#gid=0
But there's still a 15% drop....
When can we expect a Tory-free London ?
I've done comparisons for counties like Northants and Lincolnshire where the area matches up with parliamentary constituencies. The problem with East Sussex is that it doesn't include Brighton and Hove so it's a bit more difficult.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0
Only 9 of the 35 council areas voting on Thursday give the vote totals on their websites.
Well, Boris is still our mayor for the time being!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10040040/Mystery-fog-ruins-Bank-Holiday-break-for-thousands-of-beachgoers-as-it-engulfs-south-coast.html
Re last thread - Farage made a big deal of the current politicos being 'in it' for what they can get (or be, or something) rather than what they can do. Not sure Nads would be seen as a positive in that respect.
Boris = King.
UKIP picked up more than 100,000 votes in the county. Figures have been added to the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0
do you think the tories would have come a decent second in South Shields with Boris as leader?
I don't.
I'm not involved in that project. I was hoping they might already have started it for these elections but it looks like that isn't the case.
Salmond, Sturgeon and Kipper have all been proved popular.
Boris would win as a Turbot.
You have to remember that Avery Seth O Logue thought Lansley would be PM.
I'm afraid he's done himself up like a kipper on that one.
All this talk in the media about 'doing deals' and double-tickets will be a turn-off to Labour and Lib Dem kippers. And it will deflate Tory kippers who don't want to see UKIP diluted by today's centrist Conservative Party.
That said, I suppose Wheeler and Farage have got to where they are by straight-talking and if they're asked the question then they answer honestly, which, at least, is a virtue.
"I haven't got the slightest idea" should be the premise.
"Proving [your] point" is the invalid conclusion.
'Why on earth do you think you proving my point means I haven't got the slightest idea zims?'
Of course the reverse is true,had you forgotten what you said?
'f I might make a small interjection here.
Not if Cammie publishes a draft bill on his cast iron referendum. Not even if backbench tories force through something on their hilarious referendum on a referendum. They will never believe him and Farage could hardly be much clearer about just what he thinks of Cammie.'
You said there is 'Not a f****ing chance' and yet Wheeler and Farage clearly haven't ruled it out,just stated that they were more likely to do a deal with Boris.
Easy enough for them to say they completely rule it out a deal with Cameron.
When your in a hole I suggest you stop digging.
http://rotherhampolitics.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/the-times-in-full-heads-must-surelyroll/
Leaked documents from Rotherham child protection show them discussing the grooming before the Times exposure. All the people involved in the cover up of industrial scale child abuse are still in place with no pressure to call them to account.
Making it about the grooming itself opens up charges of stirring but making it about the political class colluding to cover up industrial scale child abuse side-steps that.
The Tories, especially their most europhile wing may have their own particular reasons not to want to go down that path but at the end of the day Labour is a three-legged stool and they betrayed one leg in the worst way possible so it's sitting there as a UXB.
What on earth are you babbling about now zims?
Not a f***ing chance they would believe the Cameroons. Get it?
Cameron, since you hilariously don't appear to realise it, is a CAMEROON you silly billy.
They won't do a deal with Cameron so you've just proved my point yet again but still appear amusingly clueless that you have done so.
To all future questions about alliances, the answer must for now and a very long time be a firm no.
I'd also think it massively unlikely there wouldn't be some 'gentle hints' from labour for Clegg to clear off sharpish if there was a hung parliament. (and the lib dems are suicidal enough to keep Clegg where he is for the GE)
His wife is standing to replace him. Her mother, grandmother and great-grandfather have been all on the council.
UKIP polled 32% in that ward in 2008.
Wheeler, yes, UKIP might want to think about someone else but he has a very large wallet.
'What on earth are you babbling about now zims?
Not a f***ing chance they would listen to the Cameroons. Get it?
Cameron, since you hilariously don't appear to realise it, is a CAMEROON you silly billy.
They won't do a deal with Cameron so you've just proved my point yet again but still appear amusingly clueless that you have done so.'
Just one question which you can perhaps answer without losing it?
If what you are saying /would like to happen is true,then Wheeler & Farage would simply rule out any electoral pact with the Tories whilst Cameron is leader.
Why haven't they said it?
What on earth are you babbling about now zims?
Not a f***ing chance they would believe the Cameroons. Get it?
Cameron, since you hilariously don't appear to realise it, is a CAMEROON you silly billy.
They won't do a deal with Cameron so you've just proved my point yet again but still appear amusingly clueless that you have done so.
Isn't calling Cameron a "Cameroon" racist against the good people of, er, Cameroon?
So, what have you got against that West African Commonwealth nation?
As a LibDem voter, although one now rapidly losing patience, I suppose that's another example of hope over rational expectation.
Oh for the days of Chatshow Chariie! Preferably, of course, sober! Or fairly so, anyway.
I hate to pile on the pain, but have you heard this? 15 minutes in.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01s7xzw
My flabber was well and truly ghasted that this was Nick Clegg's parliamentary aide and he was put up on a serious political programme to spin for him. He doesn't sound old enough to be the leader of the lib dem youth division. It's excruciating but it does point to Clegg being totally insulated from reality these days. Or "back in the saddle" as he so memorably put it.
Sober or not he knew just what a lib dem tory coalition would mean for the lib dems in scotland while Clegg and little Danny still don't seem to get it.
Strange as it may seem, Luton is more peaceful.
Let's be clear: Labour are winning. They are ahead in the polls and they are gaining seats at elections.
In the face of this, they decide to change the conversation. It's not about polls or electoral success, the story is now leadership ratings and UKIP.
In the press, the left is always losing - even when they are winning.
This is because the press has been capture by the right, largely by owners who want to influence public opinion to look after their own interests. Just look towards the BBC's appointment of the former editor of The Times, who aggressively pushed The Times editorial stance to the right and was appointed to appease laughable right-wing accusations of bias. It's no surprise that UKIP coverage during the local elections was practically sycophantic, with barely a mention of Labour's electoral gains.
Thankfully, none of this matters at the ballot box. Money, power and influence can't (yet) directly buy votes.