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Punters take a dim view of the Reform contretemps – politicalbetting.com
Punters take a dim view of the Reform contretemps – politicalbetting.com
I try and avoid being smug but seeing Nigel Farage’s chances fall in the next Prime Minister market is great news for myself and those people who followed my advice to lay Nigel Farage in this market.
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Unlike Reform
If only Donald Corleone's emerging mafia operation would similarly start to fall apart ...
Broadly similar to the rust belt stories in the US and the rich vein that Vance and Trump are able to tap.
Given that choice you can see why Kemi won...
And James Cleverly probably had enough common sense to go for Mayor of London which he would have a decent chance of winning.
That's where Sports Direct have their warehouse.
It also has some decent connectivity via the light rail that goes all the way to Nottingham.
Leon is a bit like Trump ... mainly afaics engages with the voices in his own head rather than the world outside it.
The graveyard of any political movement is reliance on non-voters. They're called non-voters because they're disengaged from politics and don't vote.
Until something engages them. As Brexit did. I then saw the same floods of voters voting for Boris in 2019.
These are practiced non-voters, and they can be motivated enough to vote. The Grauniad piece talks about young voters. People who haven't yet had non-voting ingrained into their psyche. These people absolutely will vote if they think there is something worth voting for.
And they don't care one bit about Rupert Lowe.
Virtually zero non-White or Muslim. 17% non-British born - overwhelmingly EU, unless it has changed fundamentally since 2021; an easy place perhaps to feed misinformation.
https://www.citypopulation.de/en/uk/eastmidlands/derbyshire/E63001666__shirebrook/
A few polls have had the Tories and Reform combined with a majority, in which case whichever of Badenoch or Farage won most seats would become PM. If that looked likely then Labour might replace Sir Keir with Rayner or Streeting or Cooper
https://x.com/3DrakaiNa/status/1897917333475082321?t=SbqRatuYEAKhoQoEL9kz-Q&s=08
Have a lovely day.
Hence overall Labour still lead with the young, the Tories with pensioners and Reform with the middle aged. Hence our three way politics now
FFS
Let us now contemplate the Holy Trinity
Hard to see what else he could be doing to give Russia all of Ukraine (and more)
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-case-for-lowering-the-voting-age-to-16/
Not sure if there is robust statistical backing for that argument
Another one is: "Will this go to the Parliamentary Standards Enforcers?", who would presumably wait until after the police investigation. Perhaps I need to suggest it to the Reform Chief Whip.
Perhaps we will all be wrong in our competition, and Reform will have fewer MPs by the end of the year
I'd say that when he leaves Parliament he'll be too old to come back.
Take the trend, project it forwards. We don't care what the polls say about an election tomorrow we're not going to have. We care about the trends played forward to the point where we actually do get an election. If you don't that's up to you. Your party used to be good at understanding the basics of political strategy. What happened?
The last three years have demonstrated they make little or no difference to Russia's willingness to continue fighting. "New" sanctions is just spin.
Halting weapons supplies and intelligence is already killing civilians. Drawing some kind of equivalence is grotesque.
Sorry...
Trump’s allegedly incoming deputy FBI Director Dan Oingoboingo says he can’t take the job for another week because he’s got contractual obligations to his podcast advertisers
https://x.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1898173041516957977
Just incredible that the US can be turned to support a sworn enemy of decades standing on the say so of one man.
Ancient genomes reveal trans-Eurasian connections between the European Huns and the Xiongnu Empire
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2418485122
I thought there were various scandals about trafficking people to work in the warehouse?
We certainly had similar questionmarks round here - I remember seeing an advert in the local shop for warehouse operatives which specified that knowing Russian would be an advantage (as a common language between Eastern Europeans - probably not very popular now!)
If you are stuck in a mining town and you see this, what are you going to think?
The original 'new business' in mining towns was of course call centres, but they mostly got shut down and moved offshore, or operations moved online.
I am actually hopeful that things are getting better now but it is a slow process.
by
Andrew Neil
https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1898275682880270640
I suspect there will be very little humility shown by Brillo after yet another complete misreading of the facts.
Even kings used to shit in buckets, the past sucked.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24952082.andrew-neil-left-distressed-donald-trumps-dictator-slur/
And half the country voted for it, many (not all) understanding what they were getting.
Stasis isn't brilliant- it means the only way to pay Paul is to rob Peter. And it's much less acceptable to borrow now if we're not going to be much richer in the future.
But compared with the desperation that has driven people to the extremes in the past, the genuine discontent that propels Trump, Farage et al is pretty low-key.
It's not massive numbers but has been mentioned on PB, and would cause a lot of resentment which the Right could use as a wedge issue.
Beyond that I have noted issues in Shirebrook around crude conversions to high density HMOs a few years ago - including at least one instances of rooms split in half down the middle of windows visible from the street. Again, potentially emotive and requires addressing.
I think that one will adjust as Eastern Europe catches up economically. There have been scandals and media investigations, but I'm not aware of anything utterly blatant by Sports Direct themselves - but I could have missed it.
We had a particular LL who invested here from the south (an accountant I assume burnishing his pension) and tried to do several low quality high-density conversions like that, but afaics has gone away again after some opposition via local politics.
Further to yesterday's discussion, Yarvin and Thiel seem to be the terrible duopoly. Yarvin has explicitly laid out a plan many times for first a purging of the U.S. government employees, a crackdown on academia , and then ignoring the courts, as a prelude to "Caesarism".
Thiel provided the ideas for the technofuturist side ; democracy is incompatible with freedom and leadership for the tech monarchy, who will provide the shape and framework the new society.
You do seem to have this habit of ignoring 'events' and I would gently suggest that Reform have a real crisis as they tear each other apart and the public will notice
Also they are NOA but in an election it may well be anybody but Reform
It’s not the first time. Look at the abject state of Hungarian opposition after so many years of hopes being dashed. Or the now submissive Hong Kongers. I get the same sort of shrugging acceptance speaking to anti-Erdogan Turks too. The Georgians aren’t there yet but the sheer doggedness of Ivanishvili will eventually wear them out.
should assume that everything the US knows about Ukrainian operations, morale, and equipment is being forwarded to Russia.
Much as I loathe Trump, I think I have even more contempt for the Republican “mainstream” who have become his willing enablers.
What is wrong with these people?
https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/16/24266512/jd-vance-curtis-yarvin-influence-rage-project-2025
The problem for Elon is that he is destroying his brain via Ketamine so he probably is making decisions that he thinks will generate more money for him when the exact opposite may be the truth.
Or when they have so much money and power they search for more meaning to life, hence messianic fervour for whatever stupid techbro idea they just read online 5 minutes ago?
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/us-russia-relations-reset-fact-sheet
The very fact national leaders are reacting so seriously and quickly is unprecedented, the USA is about one step down from Russia and China as malign actors now, and that's likely only because Trump has not yet finished moulding its governmental apparatus to bend entirely to his whims.
He will though.
The advances in AI and biotech are important in this. It is quite plausible the winners of those races may end up with a level of power never seen before in human history. That is one of the big drivers of the broligarchies need for more power and fewer restrictions on their activities.
Sheffield > Leeds > Derby > Teesside. it's gone along the same part of the M1 3 times in the past 24 hours...
When they learnt English and started demanding proper pay, safety, employment rights etc. he would replace them with more from the same source…
One of the problems in the US is the fact that they are actually a First, Second and Near-Third world country all at the same time.
At the bottom end, you could be in rural Guatemala, in terms of the social care etc. At the top end you are on Elysium.
I’m not very sure this is a good way to run a society.
Denial of this structure is very strong. With “you are blaming immigrants” being one of the protections for it.
And so we let companies sell visas for the U.K. at outrageous rates. Which rather reminds me of the way the pub companies sell being a landlord to the gullible.
Thiel was with Musk as an investor in Paypal; he was onboard in the late 1990s.
The political and wealthy Vances are both creations of Thiel. Thiel is also a lawyer.
Would that the world were!
I hope (that's all I can do, and it's becoming somewhat forlorn) that the US Democrats will find their voice again and that the US will return to some semblance of constitutional government.
It seems clear that's far as Ukraine is concerned, the US has changed sides; the news from Kursk is particularly bad.
The decision on USAID is dreadful; there's a story in today's Guardian about Afghan girls in serious danger of being returned from their Omani university to Afghanistan, where, clearly there's no prospect whatsoever of them being able to continue their studies. And that's just one, I'm certain, of thousand such.
As a Reform supporter its incredibly disappointing - it massively throws them off course and I think all sides should be deeply regretful. I am not sure he'd be happy for long in any party he wasn't running.
Shirebrook is near the M1, close to both Mansfield and Chesterfield and less than an hour from either Sheffield or Nottingham.
Whereas the American rustbelt is depopulating the old coalfields of Yorkshire and the Midlands are filled with new housing estates.
https://www.lindenhomes.co.uk/developments/derbyshire/pleasley-view-shirebrook
They see disruption as having made them their wealth, and, at best, disruption as a way of making us all richer. Probably more realistically, they see disruption as making themselves richer, and forging a world *they* want - and their world is about them, not the rest of us.
What we are seeing in the US government is a great disruption. Sadly, I don't think their vision for what emerges from the other end of the disruption is solidified, or even sane.
I also fear they have not realised that there is a good chance that this massive disruption will end up with their necks in the noose. Perhaps literally. For it is not so much a disruption as a revolution; and revolutions often devour their own children.
The Greens probably avoid this due to being so established as an identity, even if they were small for a long time.
Regular companies and government stopped innovating or even doing - the Process State is very enjoyable for those whose find virtue in the thickness of reports.
So we have a world where everything takes 2 decades. A train line, a new fighter jet. And the cost increases, above inflation, every year.
Meanwhile the politicians find legislating a Bit Tricky. So they write laws that speak of rights and obligations and then outsource the actual rule making to various quasi independent groups. This has the further advantage of removing responsibility from the politicians.
If you abdicate power, someone will pick up the sceptre.
Yeah, that will work.
I haven't been back to Brimington/Staveley for over two decades, so I don't know what state it is now. But I do know the railway work's now a ?flourishing? preserved railway hub.
https://www.barrowhill.org/
(*) I once had to pick up a tonne and a half of unfired bricks from the brickworks.
And the policy that is 'weakening us' economically (killing us would be a more appropriate term) is Net Zero. That's something Reform have opposed consistently, and it's Labour's joyful task to unravel it, because they aren't going to win against a turd in a box next time round if they don't.