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Breaking: Reform – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,663
    carnforth said:

    Is there a market on next cabinet resignation? At the right odds wouldn't mind a punt on Miliband. One or more of his schemes is on the chopping block...

    Hermer.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707
    edited March 8
    Since Reform are on topic, I'm calling it tentatively that they will not do very well in the Local Elections in the Ashfield part of Notts.

    There are 10 County seats in Ashfield, and I expect them probably to get one (Selston is I think the marginal vs Tories), and they will be doing well to get 2 and incredibly well to get three.

    They are all held by the Ashfield Independents, and the driving factor imo is that there is only one marginal, afaics all the others have very generous majorities, and the A.I. Leader Zadrozny's visit to Crown Court on umpteen charges is now in 2026. Doing better will be very difficult I think - it will take at least two or maybe even three cycles to dig out the A.I.'s, even if their new structures are very, very effective. That last thought may be impacted by the result of the Zadrozny trial.

    Subject to events, dear boy, Reform imploding, or exploding - either at the centre or voting coalition level.

    They should do better in Derbyshire.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    I wonder if Kemi can take advantage of the crisis in Reform. There is the possibility of taking first place in the polls if so.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,663
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another BIG move by Turkey

    In a stunning twist, Turkey is reportedly open to deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine—but only if Ankara gets a seat at the table in all major security discussions (which it will).

    Believe me, this is only the beginning.

    https://x.com/zriboua/status/1895151906072469872

    Putin might agree to that as could Zelensky
    Dunno. Sounds a bit trojan horse to me given the whole black sea/crimea/caucasus thing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707
    edited March 8
    viewcode said:

    William Atkinson's resignation article in ConHome. He's a bit...anguished.

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/04/living-on-a-thin-line/

    Checking I see that it is still owned by Lord Ashcroft.

    But I did NOT know that it was now edited by Giles Dilnot, of all people. Isn't he the one that did whimsical rants about things no one had ever heard needed to think about?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,165
    Andy_JS said:

    Synth Britannia music docu on BBC4 right now.

    Thanks for the alert Sunil. Do you watch the Top of the Pops replays on BBC4 on Fridays at 7pm?
    If they're from the 1980s, yes!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,866

    ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can’t argue with any of this.

    Murphy: Six Weeks In, This White House Is On Its Way To Being The Most Corrupt In U.S. History

    https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-six-weeks-in-this-white-house-is-on-its-way-to-being-the-most-corrupt-in-us-history
    … I’m a big Boston Red Sox fan. One of the most famous players in Red Sox recent history is Manny Ramirez. Manny Ramirez was a good baseball player, but he had a habit of doing some pretty ridiculous things on the field and off the field that were really detrimental to the team, some really bizarre on-field behavior – cutting off throws from other outfielders before they got to the infield – bizarre off-the-field behavior that disrupted the team. It became so regular that a phrase was adopted among the Red Sox fans: ‘That's just Manny being Manny.’ Over the years it just was accepted that every year Manny Ramirez was going to do a whole bunch of stuff that was really detrimental to the team. And over time, it just kind of became accepted, that that was a fact of life, a way of life with Manny Ramirez. And as time went on, people reacted less hostilely. It barely got noticed in some cases when he was engaged in these detrimental forms of conduct.

    “And I tell that story because it stands for kind of a universal concept: when bad behavior gets normalized, it no longer feels like bad behavior. Even if that behavior is hurting people. Today, the world is littered with corrupt governments, governments where the leaders and the really rich men who surround the leaders – the oligarchs – steal from people…

    “Vladimir Putin, for instance, has never had a job outside of government, but he's reportedly worth $200 billion. … They've been doing this so openly and brazenly, they're so public in their corruption in Russia, that it's just accepted. It's just mainstream, the fact that Putin and his cronies steal from the Russian people.

    “That's what's happening in America today. And it's heartbreaking for me to say this, but in the first six weeks of the Trump presidency, Trump and Elon Musk and their billionaire friends have engaged in a stunning rampage of open public corruption. It's not fundamentally different than what happened in Russia. These are efforts to steal from the American people to enrich themselves. And their strategy is to do it all out in the open, to do it at such a dizzying pace that the country just gets overwhelmed or anesthetized or dulled into a sense that we just all have to accept the corruption – or, maybe more charitably, that this is just how government works, that government is just corrupt, and so the fact that it's happening out in the open instead of happening secretly, well, it's really nothing new.

    “But this is not how government works…

    I keep thinking that Hunter S. Thompson and William Burroughs could both have made a fortune writing about the current goings on. Thompson in particular I can imagine being in his glory wading into this new swamp.
    I remember in the first days of Biden's adninistration, there was a lot of talk of a big crackdown on monopoly capitalism, in the shape of big tech.
    But Sanders ideas on this were soon shelved, as bad for the economy.

    Looking at monstrous trajectory of Thiel, Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg, that might have been a disastrous decision for American democracy, and the reason seems to be the same ideological capture by extreme neoliberal ideas about regulation.
    The capture you talk about has been a clear risk for fifteen years or more.

    And we have been on this journey since the deregulation of media that took place in the 80s and 90s.

    It may be that digital media is not actually compatible with democracy.
    A very interesting point of view, actually. Certainly unregulated digital media

    I certainly have direct experience of
    the beginning of this process of deregulation paradoxically ushering in a kind of commercial totalitarianism, not diversity of view.
    paradu
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,866
    I'm not sure where "paradu" came from, in the mistyped text, but it certainly doesn't add much, other than some French associations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    Dozens of Alawites executed by new Syrian regime

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxnwrqey4go
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another BIG move by Turkey

    In a stunning twist, Turkey is reportedly open to deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine—but only if Ankara gets a seat at the table in all major security discussions (which it will).

    Believe me, this is only the beginning.

    https://x.com/zriboua/status/1895151906072469872

    Putin might agree to that as could Zelensky
    Dunno. Sounds a bit trojan horse to me given the whole black sea/crimea/caucasus thing.
    Turkey has long been a rival of Russia in that region but Putin has a better relationship with Erdogan than European NATO leaders and Trudeau
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707
    Leon said:

    Farage is overplaying his hand because he thinks that Reform's 25% support is a personal vote for him. I can see him getting booed at Reform events after this.

    The problem is Farage is catnip to a lot of voters, but Lowe is popular with the activists

    To me this looks like a potential party-ending clash, and a huge opportunity for the Tories, if they have the good sense to move sharply right and dump Kemi for a Jenrick (or someone like him, that "gets it")
    Ashfield is the capital of commonsense. You need to take a weekend here - you could visit our new Observatory - and interview the Reform Chief Whip, aka the Leeanderthal Man, at his favourite eatery "Tony's Cafe", as he was promoting on his social media this week in between not mentioning The Rupert. :wink:

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,663
    Britain's radical right are all over the place tonight:



    Laurence Fox
    @LozzaFox

    The @reformparty_uk party is a political Ponzi scheme.

    Subscribers are now paying to investigate @RupertLowe10 because he’s more popular than the king of cancel culture.

    They are the exact thing they rail against.

    Anti free speech.
    Pro cancel culture.
    Woker than woke.

    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1898084401117823048
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,663
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Farage is overplaying his hand because he thinks that Reform's 25% support is a personal vote for him. I can see him getting booed at Reform events after this.

    The problem is Farage is catnip to a lot of voters, but Lowe is popular with the activists

    To me this looks like a potential party-ending clash, and a huge opportunity for the Tories, if they have the good sense to move sharply right and dump Kemi for a Jenrick (or someone like him, that "gets it")
    Ashfield is the capital of commonsense. You need to take a weekend here - you could visit our new Observatory - and interview the Reform Chief Whip, aka the Leeanderthal Man, at his favourite eatery "Tony's Cafe", as he was promoting on his social media this week in between not mentioning The Rupert. :wink:

    Those potato-based fried products look a bit too much like french fries to me to be 'Common Sense Britain'.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Farage is overplaying his hand because he thinks that Reform's 25% support is a personal vote for him. I can see him getting booed at Reform events after this.

    The problem is Farage is catnip to a lot of voters, but Lowe is popular with the activists

    To me this looks like a potential party-ending clash, and a huge opportunity for the Tories, if they have the good sense to move sharply right and dump Kemi for a Jenrick (or someone like him, that "gets it")
    Ashfield is the capital of commonsense. You need to take a weekend here - you could visit our new Observatory - and interview the Reform Chief Whip, aka the Leeanderthal Man, at his favourite eatery "Tony's Cafe", as he was promoting on his social media this week in between not mentioning The Rupert. :wink:

    Lowe is by contrast a public school educated graduate with a net worth of £30 million. To him Anderson is basically a jumped up oik, so likely some class clash between them too
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    HYUFD said:

    Dozens of Alawites executed by new Syrian regime

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxnwrqey4go

    My my, who could have predicted this of a new jihadist Islamic regime in Damascus?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,165
    HYUFD said:

    Dozens of Alawites executed by new Syrian regime

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxnwrqey4go

    I mentioned this article upthread.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,165

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Farage is overplaying his hand because he thinks that Reform's 25% support is a personal vote for him. I can see him getting booed at Reform events after this.

    The problem is Farage is catnip to a lot of voters, but Lowe is popular with the activists

    To me this looks like a potential party-ending clash, and a huge opportunity for the Tories, if they have the good sense to move sharply right and dump Kemi for a Jenrick (or someone like him, that "gets it")
    Ashfield is the capital of commonsense. You need to take a weekend here - you could visit our new Observatory - and interview the Reform Chief Whip, aka the Leeanderthal Man, at his favourite eatery "Tony's Cafe", as he was promoting on his social media this week in between not mentioning The Rupert. :wink:

    Those potato-based fried products look a bit too much like french fries to me to be 'Common Sense Britain'.

    Farage Fries, surely!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707
    edited March 8

    Much as I'd love this to be the death of RefUK, this is an example of PB being PB.

    Very few people in the real world know who Rupert Lowe is. Fewer care.

    The Reform people and Reform-adjacent people who determine the future of Reform UK do know. IMO it will be very fissiparous, as I keep mentioning. On Lee Anderson's twatter, this guy has a picture of Yaxley-Lennon as his header image:

    Paul Harding 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Enough Is Enough @Paul_Patriot12

    6h POS what you’ve all done to Rupert Lowe!!! Scumbags the lot of you, don’t worry. I’m sure you’ll be thrown under the bus soon Anderson. Or maybe not because you’ll cuck to Farage. You’ve got it written all over your face!!!

    Just riding the gravy train for a while arnt you!!!

    https://x.com/Paul_Patriot12/status/1898074373170303260
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dozens of Alawites executed by new Syrian regime

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxnwrqey4go

    My my, who could have predicted this of a new jihadist Islamic regime in Damascus?
    They are still better than IS but that is about it
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707
    edited March 8
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Farage is overplaying his hand because he thinks that Reform's 25% support is a personal vote for him. I can see him getting booed at Reform events after this.

    The problem is Farage is catnip to a lot of voters, but Lowe is popular with the activists

    To me this looks like a potential party-ending clash, and a huge opportunity for the Tories, if they have the good sense to move sharply right and dump Kemi for a Jenrick (or someone like him, that "gets it")
    Ashfield is the capital of commonsense. You need to take a weekend here - you could visit our new Observatory - and interview the Reform Chief Whip, aka the Leeanderthal Man, at his favourite eatery "Tony's Cafe", as he was promoting on his social media this week in between not mentioning The Rupert. :wink:

    Lowe is by contrast a public school educated graduate with a net worth of £30 million. To him Anderson is basically a jumped up oik, so likely some class clash between them too
    He's trying. Since 2014 or so he's gone from an very modest place in a street of terraces to a 500k pad next to a golf course. TBF to him he, also like Gloria and unlike Buff Hoon, still lives in the constituency near his roots - which I do respect even if I disagree with him on almost everything these days.

    No revelation there; the Daily Mirror did a hit job on him.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Farage is overplaying his hand because he thinks that Reform's 25% support is a personal vote for him. I can see him getting booed at Reform events after this.

    The problem is Farage is catnip to a lot of voters, but Lowe is popular with the activists

    To me this looks like a potential party-ending clash, and a huge opportunity for the Tories, if they have the good sense to move sharply right and dump Kemi for a Jenrick (or someone like him, that "gets it")
    Ashfield is the capital of commonsense. You need to take a weekend here - you could visit our new Observatory - and interview the Reform Chief Whip, aka the Leeanderthal Man, at his favourite eatery "Tony's Cafe", as he was promoting on his social media this week in between not mentioning The Rupert. :wink:

    Lowe is by contrast a public school educated graduate with a net worth of £30 million. To him Anderson is basically a jumped up oik, so likely some class clash between them too
    Tony's Cafe is at ///rabble.nods.simply .
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    I cannot forgive that statement from Yusaf and Farage.




    The have used the word 'obligated' instead of obliged.

    :s
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    I cannot forgive that statement from Yusaf and Farage.




    The have used the word 'obligated' instead of obliged.

    :s

    Back to seriousness - pretty shit isn't it?

    :neutral:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707
    MattW said:

    Much as I'd love this to be the death of RefUK, this is an example of PB being PB.

    Very few people in the real world know who Rupert Lowe is. Fewer care.

    The Reform people and Reform-adjacent people who determine the future of Reform UK do know. IMO it will be very fissiparous, as I keep mentioning. On Lee Anderson's twatter, this guy has a picture of Yaxley-Lennon as his header image:

    Paul Harding 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Enough Is Enough @Paul_Patriot12

    6h POS what you’ve all done to Rupert Lowe!!! Scumbags the lot of you, don’t worry. I’m sure you’ll be thrown under the bus soon Anderson. Or maybe not because you’ll cuck to Farage. You’ve got it written all over your face!!!

    Just riding the gravy train for a while arnt you!!!

    https://x.com/Paul_Patriot12/status/1898074373170303260
    I thought I recognised the name. Paul Harding is around the Homeland Party, and has also been association with Patriotic Alternative- interesting that he is a Rupert Lowe enthusiast over softie Farage.

    The Homeland Party are ethno-nationalists, and fellow travellers with the AFD.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dozens of Alawites executed by new Syrian regime

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxnwrqey4go

    My my, who could have predicted this of a new jihadist Islamic regime in Damascus?
    They are still better than IS but that is about it
    The new videos out of Syria are hideous. They’re ISIS all over again. Of course they are
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,902
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dozens of Alawites executed by new Syrian regime

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxnwrqey4go

    My my, who could have predicted this of a new jihadist Islamic regime in Damascus?
    They are still better than IS but that is about it
    The new videos out of Syria are hideous. They’re ISIS all over again. Of course they are
    They never seem to learn in this part of the world.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited March 8

    I cannot forgive that statement from Yusaf and Farage.




    The have used the word 'obligated' instead of obliged.

    :s

    Back to seriousness - pretty shit isn't it?

    :neutral:
    Yes. It most certainly is.

    🤭
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,328
    kle4 said:

    It's a mystery why Russia thinks it can get favourable terms.

    In the interests of peach and harmony

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us-aerospace-firm-maxar-disables-satellite-photos-ukraine-2025-03-07/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769
    JWexTheSpa‬ ‪@jwsidders.bsky.social‬
    ·
    Nailed it. Most of Westminster doesn’t yet realise the US everyone thought they knew - the one which believed in liberal democracy and the rule of law, which was integral to our defence and led the “free world” - has gone.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jwsidders.bsky.social/post/3ljpob4hgxc2d
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dozens of Alawites executed by new Syrian regime

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxnwrqey4go

    My my, who could have predicted this of a new jihadist Islamic regime in Damascus?
    Entirely predictable for you to go straight to Islamic scaremongering.

    The brutal Assad regime relied upon this small minority to staff and police its regime. As often after brutal regimes succumb to revolution, there is an understandable if unpleasant desire for revenge.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,328

    Nigelb said:

    Another BIG move by Turkey

    In a stunning twist, Turkey is reportedly open to deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine—but only if Ankara gets a seat at the table in all major security discussions (which it will).

    Believe me, this is only the beginning.

    https://x.com/zriboua/status/1895151906072469872

    Black Sea.
    I know the movement of military ships through the Bosphorus is covered by a treaty. Does that Treaty tie Turkey's hands. By which I mean could they decide to allow warships through from an allied country if they were so inclined?
    No
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871
    So...

    As I said earlier on in the week, my son got accepted into his first-choice secondary school. Yay!

    So we went online today to accept the offer. Except *two* offers for the same school appear in the list, able to be accepted. Both appear identical. If we accept one, will it be registered if the other entry is the real one? If we accept both, does that mean the system thinks there are two admittances, and another kid potentially doesn't get in? (*). Or do we just send in a paper version of the acceptance?

    A minor embuggerance to start the day... :)

    (*) I'd really hope that the system is more sane than that. But it's a system that apparently has given two offers...
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    algarkirk said:

    carnforth said:

    Details of Labour’s cuts to welfare have been leaked.

    Will go down badly with the faithful but I suspect but will be more popular with the country at large.

    Link?
    https://www.itv.com/news/2025-03-07/government-to-make-6bn-welfare-savings-with-benefits-shake-up
    Peanuts.

    If they can do it now why not previously?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,054
    carnforth said:

    Is there a market on next cabinet resignation? At the right odds wouldn't mind a punt on Miliband. One or more of his schemes is on the chopping block...

    I looked and couldn’t find one.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,153

    Nigelb said:

    Another BIG move by Turkey

    In a stunning twist, Turkey is reportedly open to deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine—but only if Ankara gets a seat at the table in all major security discussions (which it will).

    Believe me, this is only the beginning.

    https://x.com/zriboua/status/1895151906072469872

    Black Sea.
    I know the movement of military ships through the Bosphorus is covered by a treaty. Does that Treaty tie Turkey's hands. By which I mean could they decide to allow warships through from an allied country if they were so inclined?
    The Montreux Treaty is basically whatever Turkiye decides it is. If they feel threatened by war they can, still within the confines of the treaty, take any decision they like with regard to the passage of warships.

    Also, if they decide to ignore the treaty or withdraw from it, who is going to do anything about it?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Note that the extra funds for the German military and aid to Ukraine are not a done deal.

    The Greens are pissed off because both Merz and Söder keep gratuitously insulting them, when their votes are needed to amend the constitution to make the money available. Merz also managed to piss off a lot of the SPD, and has shown that he absolutely can't be trusted. At this point some people are even doubting that he will become Chancellor.

    And this week Söder also gratuitously insulted his coalition partners in the Bavarian government, the Freie Wähler, whose votes are probably needed to get any constitutional change through the Bundesrat.

    Meanwhile the AfD are trying to challenge the legality of getting the old Bundestag to change the constitution. I don't think they will succeed, and at the end of the day the Greens will probably grudgingly vote for the constitutional changes despite them not including what they want. I don't know much about the FW, but suppose they can be bought off somehow.

    Still there's a chance it doesn't all work out in the 2 weeks left.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    Meanwhile, overnight another chunk of my town has decided to move closer to the sea...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,049
    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can’t argue with any of this.

    Murphy: Six Weeks In, This White House Is On Its Way To Being The Most Corrupt In U.S. History

    https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-six-weeks-in-this-white-house-is-on-its-way-to-being-the-most-corrupt-in-us-history
    … I’m a big Boston Red Sox fan. One of the most famous players in Red Sox recent history is Manny Ramirez. Manny Ramirez was a good baseball player, but he had a habit of doing some pretty ridiculous things on the field and off the field that were really detrimental to the team, some really bizarre on-field behavior – cutting off throws from other outfielders before they got to the infield – bizarre off-the-field behavior that disrupted the team. It became so regular that a phrase was adopted among the Red Sox fans: ‘That's just Manny being Manny.’ Over the years it just was accepted that every year Manny Ramirez was going to do a whole bunch of stuff that was really detrimental to the team. And over time, it just kind of became accepted, that that was a fact of life, a way of life with Manny Ramirez. And as time went on, people reacted less hostilely. It barely got noticed in some cases when he was engaged in these detrimental forms of conduct.

    “And I tell that story because it stands for kind of a universal concept: when bad behavior gets normalized, it no longer feels like bad behavior. Even if that behavior is hurting people. Today, the world is littered with corrupt governments, governments where the leaders and the really rich men who surround the leaders – the oligarchs – steal from people…

    “Vladimir Putin, for instance, has never had a job outside of government, but he's reportedly worth $200 billion. … They've been doing this so openly and brazenly, they're so public in their corruption in Russia, that it's just accepted. It's just mainstream, the fact that Putin and his cronies steal from the Russian people.

    “That's what's happening in America today. And it's heartbreaking for me to say this, but in the first six weeks of the Trump presidency, Trump and Elon Musk and their billionaire friends have engaged in a stunning rampage of open public corruption. It's not fundamentally different than what happened in Russia. These are efforts to steal from the American people to enrich themselves. And their strategy is to do it all out in the open, to do it at such a dizzying pace that the country just gets overwhelmed or anesthetized or dulled into a sense that we just all have to accept the corruption – or, maybe more charitably, that this is just how government works, that government is just corrupt, and so the fact that it's happening out in the open instead of happening secretly, well, it's really nothing new.

    “But this is not how government works…

    It is now.
    It may be what is happening. But if government "works" like this, then the system collapses.

    If the rule of law has indeed collapsed, then the entire basis of the American economy, from regulation to contract law is compromised.

    The result is that US Asset prices fall from AAA reserve currency levels down to A rating price levels: effectively a 40% price fall. Then there is a permanent increase in US structural inflation as a result of a drastically less efficient economy and much higher borrowing costs.

    A shock to confidence on that scale ca not be hidden and it is mot hypothetical. The strong rise in the Euro this week tells you that the bond market is putting the US under notice.

    Reality will collide with the witless lies of this appalling administration. In the end I could see the Americans putting the whole lot of them against the wall: Trump, Vance, Musk et al.

    Orwell pointed out that wars were useful for forcing leaders to engage with reality, keeping them a little bit sane. (We're seeing a little bit of that, in very slow motion, with Putin.) Nowadays, bond markets do much the same.

    Even absolute political power, and Trump's political power is pretty close to absolute, isn't absolute power.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    Cicero said:

    Reality will collide with the witless lies of this appalling administration. In the end I could see the Americans putting the whole lot of them against the wall: Trump, Vance, Musk et al.

    A necessary condition for that to occur would be a free press, faithfully reporting what is actually happening, and trusted by the people.

    None of that is currently in place
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 849

    So...

    As I said earlier on in the week, my son got accepted into his first-choice secondary school. Yay!

    So we went online today to accept the offer. Except *two* offers for the same school appear in the list, able to be accepted. Both appear identical. If we accept one, will it be registered if the other entry is the real one? If we accept both, does that mean the system thinks there are two admittances, and another kid potentially doesn't get in? (*). Or do we just send in a paper version of the acceptance?

    A minor embuggerance to start the day... :)

    (*) I'd really hope that the system is more sane than that. But it's a system that apparently has given two offers...

    Seems more likely that the data entry is the cause of the problem. A phone call in office hours would seem the wisest next step.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,988

    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can’t argue with any of this.

    Murphy: Six Weeks In, This White House Is On Its Way To Being The Most Corrupt In U.S. History

    https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-six-weeks-in-this-white-house-is-on-its-way-to-being-the-most-corrupt-in-us-history
    … I’m a big Boston Red Sox fan. One of the most famous players in Red Sox recent history is Manny Ramirez. Manny Ramirez was a good baseball player, but he had a habit of doing some pretty ridiculous things on the field and off the field that were really detrimental to the team, some really bizarre on-field behavior – cutting off throws from other outfielders before they got to the infield – bizarre off-the-field behavior that disrupted the team. It became so regular that a phrase was adopted among the Red Sox fans: ‘That's just Manny being Manny.’ Over the years it just was accepted that every year Manny Ramirez was going to do a whole bunch of stuff that was really detrimental to the team. And over time, it just kind of became accepted, that that was a fact of life, a way of life with Manny Ramirez. And as time went on, people reacted less hostilely. It barely got noticed in some cases when he was engaged in these detrimental forms of conduct.

    “And I tell that story because it stands for kind of a universal concept: when bad behavior gets normalized, it no longer feels like bad behavior. Even if that behavior is hurting people. Today, the world is littered with corrupt governments, governments where the leaders and the really rich men who surround the leaders – the oligarchs – steal from people…

    “Vladimir Putin, for instance, has never had a job outside of government, but he's reportedly worth $200 billion. … They've been doing this so openly and brazenly, they're so public in their corruption in Russia, that it's just accepted. It's just mainstream, the fact that Putin and his cronies steal from the Russian people.

    “That's what's happening in America today. And it's heartbreaking for me to say this, but in the first six weeks of the Trump presidency, Trump and Elon Musk and their billionaire friends have engaged in a stunning rampage of open public corruption. It's not fundamentally different than what happened in Russia. These are efforts to steal from the American people to enrich themselves. And their strategy is to do it all out in the open, to do it at such a dizzying pace that the country just gets overwhelmed or anesthetized or dulled into a sense that we just all have to accept the corruption – or, maybe more charitably, that this is just how government works, that government is just corrupt, and so the fact that it's happening out in the open instead of happening secretly, well, it's really nothing new.

    “But this is not how government works…

    It is now.
    It may be what is happening. But if government "works" like this, then the system collapses.

    If the rule of law has indeed collapsed, then the entire basis of the American economy, from regulation to contract law is compromised.

    The result is that US Asset prices fall from AAA reserve currency levels down to A rating price levels: effectively a 40% price fall. Then there is a permanent increase in US structural inflation as a result of a drastically less efficient economy and much higher borrowing costs.

    A shock to confidence on that scale ca not be hidden and it is mot hypothetical. The strong rise in the Euro this week tells you that the bond market is putting the US under notice.

    Reality will collide with the witless lies of this appalling administration. In the end I could see the Americans putting the whole lot of them against the wall: Trump, Vance, Musk et al.

    Orwell pointed out that wars were useful for forcing leaders to engage with reality, keeping them a little bit sane. (We're seeing a little bit of that, in very slow motion, with Putin.) Nowadays, bond markets do much the same.

    Even absolute political power, and Trump's political power is pretty close to absolute, isn't absolute power.
    Trump might cow his adminstration, the US Congress, the Supreme Court, the media.

    The one man he cannot buy off, intimidate, threaten - the one man who can bring down his simpleton economic mess - is Mister Market...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,049

    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can’t argue with any of this.

    Murphy: Six Weeks In, This White House Is On Its Way To Being The Most Corrupt In U.S. History

    https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-six-weeks-in-this-white-house-is-on-its-way-to-being-the-most-corrupt-in-us-history
    … I’m a big Boston Red Sox fan. One of the most famous players in Red Sox recent history is Manny Ramirez. Manny Ramirez was a good baseball player, but he had a habit of doing some pretty ridiculous things on the field and off the field that were really detrimental to the team, some really bizarre on-field behavior – cutting off throws from other outfielders before they got to the infield – bizarre off-the-field behavior that disrupted the team. It became so regular that a phrase was adopted among the Red Sox fans: ‘That's just Manny being Manny.’ Over the years it just was accepted that every year Manny Ramirez was going to do a whole bunch of stuff that was really detrimental to the team. And over time, it just kind of became accepted, that that was a fact of life, a way of life with Manny Ramirez. And as time went on, people reacted less hostilely. It barely got noticed in some cases when he was engaged in these detrimental forms of conduct.

    “And I tell that story because it stands for kind of a universal concept: when bad behavior gets normalized, it no longer feels like bad behavior. Even if that behavior is hurting people. Today, the world is littered with corrupt governments, governments where the leaders and the really rich men who surround the leaders – the oligarchs – steal from people…

    “Vladimir Putin, for instance, has never had a job outside of government, but he's reportedly worth $200 billion. … They've been doing this so openly and brazenly, they're so public in their corruption in Russia, that it's just accepted. It's just mainstream, the fact that Putin and his cronies steal from the Russian people.

    “That's what's happening in America today. And it's heartbreaking for me to say this, but in the first six weeks of the Trump presidency, Trump and Elon Musk and their billionaire friends have engaged in a stunning rampage of open public corruption. It's not fundamentally different than what happened in Russia. These are efforts to steal from the American people to enrich themselves. And their strategy is to do it all out in the open, to do it at such a dizzying pace that the country just gets overwhelmed or anesthetized or dulled into a sense that we just all have to accept the corruption – or, maybe more charitably, that this is just how government works, that government is just corrupt, and so the fact that it's happening out in the open instead of happening secretly, well, it's really nothing new.

    “But this is not how government works…

    It is now.
    It may be what is happening. But if government "works" like this, then the system collapses.

    If the rule of law has indeed collapsed, then the entire basis of the American economy, from regulation to contract law is compromised.

    The result is that US Asset prices fall from AAA reserve currency levels down to A rating price levels: effectively a 40% price fall. Then there is a permanent increase in US structural inflation as a result of a drastically less efficient economy and much higher borrowing costs.

    A shock to confidence on that scale ca not be hidden and it is mot hypothetical. The strong rise in the Euro this week tells you that the bond market is putting the US under notice.

    Reality will collide with the witless lies of this appalling administration. In the end I could see the Americans putting the whole lot of them against the wall: Trump, Vance, Musk et al.

    Orwell pointed out that wars were useful for forcing leaders to engage with reality, keeping them a little bit sane. (We're seeing a little bit of that, in very slow motion, with Putin.) Nowadays, bond markets do much the same.

    Even absolute political power, and Trump's political power is pretty close to absolute, isn't absolute power.
    Trump might cow his adminstration, the US Congress, the Supreme Court, the media.

    The one man he cannot buy off, intimidate, threaten - the one man who can bring down his simpleton economic mess - is Mister Market...
    When I went to work in asset management I thought I was selling out - I had no idea that I was actually joining the fight against fascism.
    Depends- is fiscally sound fascism (which I suspect is what some crave) a possibility, or a contradiction in terms?

    I suspect it's the latter, at least in the long term, because an authoritarian state is too expensive to feed, but there may be a counterexample.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dozens of Alawites executed by new Syrian regime

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxnwrqey4go

    My my, who could have predicted this of a new jihadist Islamic regime in Damascus?
    Entirely predictable for you to go straight to Islamic scaremongering.

    The brutal Assad regime relied upon this small minority to staff and police its regime. As often after brutal regimes succumb to revolution, there is an understandable if unpleasant desire for revenge.
    Quite the contrast to your Crufts posts !
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,562
    edited March 8
    ...

    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can’t argue with any of this.

    Murphy: Six Weeks In, This White House Is On Its Way To Being The Most Corrupt In U.S. History

    https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-six-weeks-in-this-white-house-is-on-its-way-to-being-the-most-corrupt-in-us-history
    … I’m a big Boston Red Sox fan. One of the most famous players in Red Sox recent history is Manny Ramirez. Manny Ramirez was a good baseball player, but he had a habit of doing some pretty ridiculous things on the field and off the field that were really detrimental to the team, some really bizarre on-field behavior – cutting off throws from other outfielders before they got to the infield – bizarre off-the-field behavior that disrupted the team. It became so regular that a phrase was adopted among the Red Sox fans: ‘That's just Manny being Manny.’ Over the years it just was accepted that every year Manny Ramirez was going to do a whole bunch of stuff that was really detrimental to the team. And over time, it just kind of became accepted, that that was a fact of life, a way of life with Manny Ramirez. And as time went on, people reacted less hostilely. It barely got noticed in some cases when he was engaged in these detrimental forms of conduct.

    “And I tell that story because it stands for kind of a universal concept: when bad behavior gets normalized, it no longer feels like bad behavior. Even if that behavior is hurting people. Today, the world is littered with corrupt governments, governments where the leaders and the really rich men who surround the leaders – the oligarchs – steal from people…

    “Vladimir Putin, for instance, has never had a job outside of government, but he's reportedly worth $200 billion. … They've been doing this so openly and brazenly, they're so public in their corruption in Russia, that it's just accepted. It's just mainstream, the fact that Putin and his cronies steal from the Russian people.

    “That's what's happening in America today. And it's heartbreaking for me to say this, but in the first six weeks of the Trump presidency, Trump and Elon Musk and their billionaire friends have engaged in a stunning rampage of open public corruption. It's not fundamentally different than what happened in Russia. These are efforts to steal from the American people to enrich themselves. And their strategy is to do it all out in the open, to do it at such a dizzying pace that the country just gets overwhelmed or anesthetized or dulled into a sense that we just all have to accept the corruption – or, maybe more charitably, that this is just how government works, that government is just corrupt, and so the fact that it's happening out in the open instead of happening secretly, well, it's really nothing new.

    “But this is not how government works…

    It is now.
    It may be what is happening. But if government "works" like this, then the system collapses.

    If the rule of law has indeed collapsed, then the entire basis of the American economy, from regulation to contract law is compromised.

    The result is that US Asset prices fall from AAA reserve currency levels down to A rating price levels: effectively a 40% price fall. Then there is a permanent increase in US structural inflation as a result of a drastically less efficient economy and much higher borrowing costs.

    A shock to confidence on that scale ca not be hidden and it is mot hypothetical. The strong rise in the Euro this week tells you that the bond market is putting the US under notice.

    Reality will collide with the witless lies of this appalling administration. In the end I could see the Americans putting the whole lot of them against the wall: Trump, Vance, Musk et al.

    Orwell pointed out that wars were useful for forcing leaders to engage with reality, keeping them a little bit sane. (We're seeing a little bit of that, in very slow motion, with Putin.) Nowadays, bond markets do much the same.

    Even absolute political power, and Trump's political power is pretty close to absolute, isn't absolute power.
    Trump might cow his adminstration, the US Congress, the Supreme Court, the media.

    The one man he cannot buy off, intimidate, threaten - the one man who can bring down his simpleton economic mess - is Mister Market...
    When I went to work in asset management I thought I was selling out - I had no idea that I was actually joining the fight against fascism.
    Depends- is fiscally sound fascism (which I suspect is what some crave) a possibility, or a contradiction in terms?

    I suspect it's the latter, at least in the long term, because an authoritarian state is too expensive to feed, but there may be a counterexample.
    Failing markets punish democratically elected politicians. Failing markets do not punish autocrats who own election mechanisms. Eventually they may fall, but in the meantime they collect yachts in Monte Carlo, villas in Dubai and collections of Ferraris to feather their post autocracy nests while the peasants starve. See Mugabe.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    William Atkinson's resignation article in ConHome. He's a bit...anguished.

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/04/living-on-a-thin-line/

    The social contract is broken. Before me lies a future of personal immiseration, demographic revolution, and global war. I just want the same lives my parents had. I want a Britain that is vaguely civilised, not a bankrupt, self-loathing, and crime-ridden Yookay

    He may be disappointed in that case. But is definitely sounding the alarm.

    Too many in our party don’t quite realise just how much we’re hated. MPs are blinded by survivorship bias. Labour’s travails lull them into a false sense of smug security, rather than waking them up to how volatile politics has become. They write Reform off as a passing fad, and assume that since we’ve made it through 300-odd years, that we have a divine right to exist.

    We do not. We are dying on our feet.
    That’s the problem.

    So many people on the right have persuaded themselves that living in a flawed, but free and prosperous democracy, is the worst fate that can befall a nation.

    It used to be the far left which was this fucking stupid.
    Because your diagnosis of the uk is fucking bullshit
    You’re a paranoid rich man, who’s persuaded himself he lives in the worst of times.

    My grandparents faced much worse, with a lot more fortitude.
    I've faced much worse.
    My 10 year old daughter came home from school the other day concerned because people had been telling her Putin was going to drop a bomb on Britain. Which he might. But is struck me that for my childhood, the threat of annihilation was the constant background noise. As was discussed earlier, the USSR's plans for the destruction of the world were so comprehensive they even made time to wipe out New Zealand.
    Objectively, today is a far better time to be alive than the early 80s.
    I remember being scared witless by The War Game and Threads.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,933
    Trying to interpolate from his comments why the great extrapolator is banned
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can’t argue with any of this.

    Murphy: Six Weeks In, This White House Is On Its Way To Being The Most Corrupt In U.S. History

    https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-six-weeks-in-this-white-house-is-on-its-way-to-being-the-most-corrupt-in-us-history
    … I’m a big Boston Red Sox fan. One of the most famous players in Red Sox recent history is Manny Ramirez. Manny Ramirez was a good baseball player, but he had a habit of doing some pretty ridiculous things on the field and off the field that were really detrimental to the team, some really bizarre on-field behavior – cutting off throws from other outfielders before they got to the infield – bizarre off-the-field behavior that disrupted the team. It became so regular that a phrase was adopted among the Red Sox fans: ‘That's just Manny being Manny.’ Over the years it just was accepted that every year Manny Ramirez was going to do a whole bunch of stuff that was really detrimental to the team. And over time, it just kind of became accepted, that that was a fact of life, a way of life with Manny Ramirez. And as time went on, people reacted less hostilely. It barely got noticed in some cases when he was engaged in these detrimental forms of conduct.

    “And I tell that story because it stands for kind of a universal concept: when bad behavior gets normalized, it no longer feels like bad behavior. Even if that behavior is hurting people. Today, the world is littered with corrupt governments, governments where the leaders and the really rich men who surround the leaders – the oligarchs – steal from people…

    “Vladimir Putin, for instance, has never had a job outside of government, but he's reportedly worth $200 billion. … They've been doing this so openly and brazenly, they're so public in their corruption in Russia, that it's just accepted. It's just mainstream, the fact that Putin and his cronies steal from the Russian people.

    “That's what's happening in America today. And it's heartbreaking for me to say this, but in the first six weeks of the Trump presidency, Trump and Elon Musk and their billionaire friends have engaged in a stunning rampage of open public corruption. It's not fundamentally different than what happened in Russia. These are efforts to steal from the American people to enrich themselves. And their strategy is to do it all out in the open, to do it at such a dizzying pace that the country just gets overwhelmed or anesthetized or dulled into a sense that we just all have to accept the corruption – or, maybe more charitably, that this is just how government works, that government is just corrupt, and so the fact that it's happening out in the open instead of happening secretly, well, it's really nothing new.

    “But this is not how government works…

    It is now.
    It may be what is happening. But if government "works" like this, then the system collapses.

    If the rule of law has indeed collapsed, then the entire basis of the American economy, from regulation to contract law is compromised.

    The result is that US Asset prices fall from AAA reserve currency levels down to A rating price levels: effectively a 40% price fall. Then there is a permanent increase in US structural inflation as a result of a drastically less efficient economy and much higher borrowing costs.

    A shock to confidence on that scale ca not be hidden and it is mot hypothetical. The strong rise in the Euro this week tells you that the bond market is putting the US under notice.

    Reality will collide with the witless lies of this appalling administration. In the end I could see the Americans putting the whole lot of them against the wall: Trump, Vance, Musk et al.

    Orwell pointed out that wars were useful for forcing leaders to engage with reality, keeping them a little bit sane. (We're seeing a little bit of that, in very slow motion, with Putin.) Nowadays, bond markets do much the same.

    Even absolute political power, and Trump's political power is pretty close to absolute, isn't absolute power.
    Trump might cow his adminstration, the US Congress, the Supreme Court, the media.

    The one man he cannot buy off, intimidate, threaten - the one man who can bring down his simpleton economic mess - is Mister Market...
    When I went to work in asset management I thought I was selling out - I had no idea that I was actually joining the fight against fascism.
    We thank you for your service.
    Thank you. It is a tough and thankless task but somebody has to do it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can’t argue with any of this.

    Murphy: Six Weeks In, This White House Is On Its Way To Being The Most Corrupt In U.S. History

    https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-six-weeks-in-this-white-house-is-on-its-way-to-being-the-most-corrupt-in-us-history
    … I’m a big Boston Red Sox fan. One of the most famous players in Red Sox recent history is Manny Ramirez. Manny Ramirez was a good baseball player, but he had a habit of doing some pretty ridiculous things on the field and off the field that were really detrimental to the team, some really bizarre on-field behavior – cutting off throws from other outfielders before they got to the infield – bizarre off-the-field behavior that disrupted the team. It became so regular that a phrase was adopted among the Red Sox fans: ‘That's just Manny being Manny.’ Over the years it just was accepted that every year Manny Ramirez was going to do a whole bunch of stuff that was really detrimental to the team. And over time, it just kind of became accepted, that that was a fact of life, a way of life with Manny Ramirez. And as time went on, people reacted less hostilely. It barely got noticed in some cases when he was engaged in these detrimental forms of conduct.

    “And I tell that story because it stands for kind of a universal concept: when bad behavior gets normalized, it no longer feels like bad behavior. Even if that behavior is hurting people. Today, the world is littered with corrupt governments, governments where the leaders and the really rich men who surround the leaders – the oligarchs – steal from people…

    “Vladimir Putin, for instance, has never had a job outside of government, but he's reportedly worth $200 billion. … They've been doing this so openly and brazenly, they're so public in their corruption in Russia, that it's just accepted. It's just mainstream, the fact that Putin and his cronies steal from the Russian people.

    “That's what's happening in America today. And it's heartbreaking for me to say this, but in the first six weeks of the Trump presidency, Trump and Elon Musk and their billionaire friends have engaged in a stunning rampage of open public corruption. It's not fundamentally different than what happened in Russia. These are efforts to steal from the American people to enrich themselves. And their strategy is to do it all out in the open, to do it at such a dizzying pace that the country just gets overwhelmed or anesthetized or dulled into a sense that we just all have to accept the corruption – or, maybe more charitably, that this is just how government works, that government is just corrupt, and so the fact that it's happening out in the open instead of happening secretly, well, it's really nothing new.

    “But this is not how government works…

    It is now.
    It may be what is happening. But if government "works" like this, then the system collapses.

    If the rule of law has indeed collapsed, then the entire basis of the American economy, from regulation to contract law is compromised.

    The result is that US Asset prices fall from AAA reserve currency levels down to A rating price levels: effectively a 40% price fall. Then there is a permanent increase in US structural inflation as a result of a drastically less efficient economy and much higher borrowing costs.

    A shock to confidence on that scale ca not be hidden and it is mot hypothetical. The strong rise in the Euro this week tells you that the bond market is putting the US under notice.

    Reality will collide with the witless lies of this appalling administration. In the end I could see the Americans putting the whole lot of them against the wall: Trump, Vance, Musk et al.

    Orwell pointed out that wars were useful for forcing leaders to engage with reality, keeping them a little bit sane. (We're seeing a little bit of that, in very slow motion, with Putin.) Nowadays, bond markets do much the same.

    Even absolute political power, and Trump's political power is pretty close to absolute, isn't absolute power.
    Trump might cow his adminstration, the US Congress, the Supreme Court, the media.

    The one man he cannot buy off, intimidate, threaten - the one man who can bring down his simpleton economic mess - is Mister Market...
    When I went to work in asset management I thought I was selling out - I had no idea that I was actually joining the fight against fascism.
    Depends- is fiscally sound fascism (which I suspect is what some crave) a possibility, or a contradiction in terms?

    I suspect it's the latter, at least in the long term, because an authoritarian state is too expensive to feed, but there may be a counterexample.
    Any form of government built on fantasy will run up big debts IMHO. Abundant natural resources help to plug the gap between rhetoric and reality, of course, but we don't have those (any more).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,505

    Blimey, it's only last week that we had a PB header on How Reform Can Win the Election.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/02/26/how-reform-can-win-the-general-election/

    A week is indeed a long time in politics.

    Morning! They still can. Reform voters have no clue who Rupert Lowe is - even the ones who voted for him.

    Great piece in The Guardian this morning about young people and Reform https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/08/nigel-farage-feels-real-why-young-british-men-are-drawn-to-reform

    They don't care about Westminster Bubble stories. If we continue to disengage with them and dismiss Reform as bust, they will win.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,147
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another BIG move by Turkey

    In a stunning twist, Turkey is reportedly open to deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine—but only if Ankara gets a seat at the table in all major security discussions (which it will).

    Believe me, this is only the beginning.

    https://x.com/zriboua/status/1895151906072469872

    Black Sea.
    I know the movement of military ships through the Bosphorus is covered by a treaty. Does that Treaty tie Turkey's hands. By which I mean could they decide to allow warships through from an allied country if they were so inclined?
    The Montreux Treaty is basically whatever Turkiye decides it is. If they feel threatened by war they can, still within the confines of the treaty, take any decision they like with regard to the passage of warships.

    Also, if they decide to ignore the treaty or withdraw from it, who is going to do anything about it?
    Ta.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005
    Lots of Holds in the by-election results and Reform with a number of 2nd places. However the only Gains were from a Lib Dem and an Independent.
    The results seem to show drops in Con/Lab/Grn where it helps the LibDem beat Reform (Pendle) or drops in Lab/LibDem/Grn where it help Con beat Reform (Herne & Broomfield (Canterbury).
    So, I expect to see more anti-Reform tactical voting in the future.
    https://www.markpack.org.uk/174371/vivary-bridge-pendle-council-by-election/
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,049
    kjh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    William Atkinson's resignation article in ConHome. He's a bit...anguished.

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/04/living-on-a-thin-line/

    The social contract is broken. Before me lies a future of personal immiseration, demographic revolution, and global war. I just want the same lives my parents had. I want a Britain that is vaguely civilised, not a bankrupt, self-loathing, and crime-ridden Yookay

    He may be disappointed in that case. But is definitely sounding the alarm.

    Too many in our party don’t quite realise just how much we’re hated. MPs are blinded by survivorship bias. Labour’s travails lull them into a false sense of smug security, rather than waking them up to how volatile politics has become. They write Reform off as a passing fad, and assume that since we’ve made it through 300-odd years, that we have a divine right to exist.

    We do not. We are dying on our feet.
    That’s the problem.

    So many people on the right have persuaded themselves that living in a flawed, but free and prosperous democracy, is the worst fate that can befall a nation.

    It used to be the far left which was this fucking stupid.
    Because your diagnosis of the uk is fucking bullshit
    You’re a paranoid rich man, who’s persuaded himself he lives in the worst of times.

    My grandparents faced much worse, with a lot more fortitude.
    I've faced much worse.
    My 10 year old daughter came home from school the other day concerned because people had been telling her Putin was going to drop a bomb on Britain. Which he might. But is struck me that for my childhood, the threat of annihilation was the constant background noise. As was discussed earlier, the USSR's plans for the destruction of the world were so comprehensive they even made time to wipe out New Zealand.
    Objectively, today is a far better time to be alive than the early 80s.
    I remember being scared witless by The War Game and Threads.
    @leon often accuses us of being centrist dads, but in reality he is a centrist granddad. He reminds me of those oldies who always say it was better in the good old days. It wasn't. Not by a long chalk. I grew up in a house without a bathroom and an outside loo and no central heating and where we were constantly reminded of nuclear destruction and smog and rationing was a recent memory of my parents.

    The good old days were not good compared to any time since.
    Suspect part of the problem has been boredom. You see hints of it in the "we need bad times to produce great men" thing. Which isn't even original;

    “In Italy for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.”

    Some people crave the excitement and assume that they will be one of the great men. But Switzerland was way better to live in than Italy.

    Doesn't mean we can't/shouldn't try to do better.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 550

    Blimey, it's only last week that we had a PB header on How Reform Can Win the Election.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/02/26/how-reform-can-win-the-general-election/

    A week is indeed a long time in politics.

    Morning! They still can. Reform voters have no clue who Rupert Lowe is - even the ones who voted for him.

    Great piece in The Guardian this morning about young people and Reform https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/08/nigel-farage-feels-real-why-young-british-men-are-drawn-to-reform

    They don't care about Westminster Bubble stories. If we continue to disengage with them and dismiss Reform as bust, they will win.
    In the UK we can make a distinction when talking about nationality. You have a least a choice of 2 (British or English etc). Sometimes you have a choice of 3 if you are a dual national e.g. Israel. Then if you overlay ethnicity British Asian / Anglo Caribbean the choices multiply. And then add in religion to the mix, you have a mongrel nation.

    So it's odd that some seem so sure there is a unified approach to such issues by adding in a label such as 'values' unless they are so unsure of themselves they have to find a reason to be angry at 'something'.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Blimey, it's only last week that we had a PB header on How Reform Can Win the Election.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/02/26/how-reform-can-win-the-general-election/

    A week is indeed a long time in politics.

    Morning! They still can. Reform voters have no clue who Rupert Lowe is - even the ones who voted for him.

    Great piece in The Guardian this morning about young people and Reform https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/08/nigel-farage-feels-real-why-young-british-men-are-drawn-to-reform

    They don't care about Westminster Bubble stories. If we continue to disengage with them and dismiss Reform as bust, they will win.
    That's very interesting, thanks. I have a 15 year old son and there's a lot in here that resonates.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Lots of Holds in the by-election results and Reform with a number of 2nd places. However the only Gains were from a Lib Dem and an Independent.
    The results seem to show drops in Con/Lab/Grn where it helps the LibDem beat Reform (Pendle) or drops in Lab/LibDem/Grn where it help Con beat Reform (Herne & Broomfield (Canterbury).
    So, I expect to see more anti-Reform tactical voting in the future.
    https://www.markpack.org.uk/174371/vivary-bridge-pendle-council-by-election/

    Agreed. I'd vote Tory to keep out Reform.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,988
    kjh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    William Atkinson's resignation article in ConHome. He's a bit...anguished.

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/04/living-on-a-thin-line/

    The social contract is broken. Before me lies a future of personal immiseration, demographic revolution, and global war. I just want the same lives my parents had. I want a Britain that is vaguely civilised, not a bankrupt, self-loathing, and crime-ridden Yookay

    He may be disappointed in that case. But is definitely sounding the alarm.

    Too many in our party don’t quite realise just how much we’re hated. MPs are blinded by survivorship bias. Labour’s travails lull them into a false sense of smug security, rather than waking them up to how volatile politics has become. They write Reform off as a passing fad, and assume that since we’ve made it through 300-odd years, that we have a divine right to exist.

    We do not. We are dying on our feet.
    That’s the problem.

    So many people on the right have persuaded themselves that living in a flawed, but free and prosperous democracy, is the worst fate that can befall a nation.

    It used to be the far left which was this fucking stupid.
    Because your diagnosis of the uk is fucking bullshit
    You’re a paranoid rich man, who’s persuaded himself he lives in the worst of times.

    My grandparents faced much worse, with a lot more fortitude.
    I've faced much worse.
    My 10 year old daughter came home from school the other day concerned because people had been telling her Putin was going to drop a bomb on Britain. Which he might. But is struck me that for my childhood, the threat of annihilation was the constant background noise. As was discussed earlier, the USSR's plans for the destruction of the world were so comprehensive they even made time to wipe out New Zealand.
    Objectively, today is a far better time to be alive than the early 80s.
    I remember being scared witless by The War Game and Threads.
    @leon often accuses us of being centrist dads, but in reality he is a centrist granddad. He reminds me of those oldies who always say it was better in the good old days. It wasn't. Not by a long chalk. I grew up in a house without a bathroom and an outside loo and no central heating and where we were constantly reminded of nuclear destruction and smog and rationing was a recent memory of my parents.

    The good old days were not good compared to any time since.
    Plus it had shitty telly like The Good Old Days...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188

    NEW THREAD

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,147
    ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can’t argue with any of this.

    Murphy: Six Weeks In, This White House Is On Its Way To Being The Most Corrupt In U.S. History

    https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-six-weeks-in-this-white-house-is-on-its-way-to-being-the-most-corrupt-in-us-history
    … I’m a big Boston Red Sox fan. One of the most famous players in Red Sox recent history is Manny Ramirez. Manny Ramirez was a good baseball player, but he had a habit of doing some pretty ridiculous things on the field and off the field that were really detrimental to the team, some really bizarre on-field behavior – cutting off throws from other outfielders before they got to the infield – bizarre off-the-field behavior that disrupted the team. It became so regular that a phrase was adopted among the Red Sox fans: ‘That's just Manny being Manny.’ Over the years it just was accepted that every year Manny Ramirez was going to do a whole bunch of stuff that was really detrimental to the team. And over time, it just kind of became accepted, that that was a fact of life, a way of life with Manny Ramirez. And as time went on, people reacted less hostilely. It barely got noticed in some cases when he was engaged in these detrimental forms of conduct.

    “And I tell that story because it stands for kind of a universal concept: when bad behavior gets normalized, it no longer feels like bad behavior. Even if that behavior is hurting people. Today, the world is littered with corrupt governments, governments where the leaders and the really rich men who surround the leaders – the oligarchs – steal from people…

    “Vladimir Putin, for instance, has never had a job outside of government, but he's reportedly worth $200 billion. … They've been doing this so openly and brazenly, they're so public in their corruption in Russia, that it's just accepted. It's just mainstream, the fact that Putin and his cronies steal from the Russian people.

    “That's what's happening in America today. And it's heartbreaking for me to say this, but in the first six weeks of the Trump presidency, Trump and Elon Musk and their billionaire friends have engaged in a stunning rampage of open public corruption. It's not fundamentally different than what happened in Russia. These are efforts to steal from the American people to enrich themselves. And their strategy is to do it all out in the open, to do it at such a dizzying pace that the country just gets overwhelmed or anesthetized or dulled into a sense that we just all have to accept the corruption – or, maybe more charitably, that this is just how government works, that government is just corrupt, and so the fact that it's happening out in the open instead of happening secretly, well, it's really nothing new.

    “But this is not how government works…

    I keep thinking that Hunter S. Thompson and William Burroughs could both have made a fortune writing about the current goings on. Thompson in particular I can imagine being in his glory wading into this new swamp.
    PJ O'Rourke would have had a field day as well. All greatly missed.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,153
    edited March 8

    Blimey, it's only last week that we had a PB header on How Reform Can Win the Election.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/02/26/how-reform-can-win-the-general-election/

    A week is indeed a long time in politics.

    Morning! They still can. Reform voters have no clue who Rupert Lowe is - even the ones who voted for him.

    Great piece in The Guardian this morning about young people and Reform https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/08/nigel-farage-feels-real-why-young-british-men-are-drawn-to-reform

    They don't care about Westminster Bubble stories. If we continue to disengage with them and dismiss Reform as bust, they will win.
    The young men angle is interesting but there must be a question mark over whether these rottmaxing scum will actually turn out to vote for the Fukkers on the day though. Even if doing it ironically.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,153
    Andy_JS said:

    I wonder if Kemi can take advantage of the crisis in Reform.

    Obviously not. The tories were fucking idiotic with their virtue signalling choice of somebody who cannot appeal to Red Wall Racists that have gone Fukker.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 550
    Number and type of missiles being fired at Ukraine since Trump was elected. Significant increase in the more damaging missiles since technical help withdrawn.






  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    kjh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    William Atkinson's resignation article in ConHome. He's a bit...anguished.

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/04/living-on-a-thin-line/

    The social contract is broken. Before me lies a future of personal immiseration, demographic revolution, and global war. I just want the same lives my parents had. I want a Britain that is vaguely civilised, not a bankrupt, self-loathing, and crime-ridden Yookay

    He may be disappointed in that case. But is definitely sounding the alarm.

    Too many in our party don’t quite realise just how much we’re hated. MPs are blinded by survivorship bias. Labour’s travails lull them into a false sense of smug security, rather than waking them up to how volatile politics has become. They write Reform off as a passing fad, and assume that since we’ve made it through 300-odd years, that we have a divine right to exist.

    We do not. We are dying on our feet.
    That’s the problem.

    So many people on the right have persuaded themselves that living in a flawed, but free and prosperous democracy, is the worst fate that can befall a nation.

    It used to be the far left which was this fucking stupid.
    Because your diagnosis of the uk is fucking bullshit
    You’re a paranoid rich man, who’s persuaded himself he lives in the worst of times.

    My grandparents faced much worse, with a lot more fortitude.
    I've faced much worse.
    My 10 year old daughter came home from school the other day concerned because people had been telling her Putin was going to drop a bomb on Britain. Which he might. But is struck me that for my childhood, the threat of annihilation was the constant background noise. As was discussed earlier, the USSR's plans for the destruction of the world were so comprehensive they even made time to wipe out New Zealand.
    Objectively, today is a far better time to be alive than the early 80s.
    I remember being scared witless by The War Game and Threads.
    @leon often accuses us of being centrist dads, but in reality he is a centrist granddad. He reminds me of those oldies who always say it was better in the good old days. It wasn't. Not by a long chalk. I grew up in a house without a bathroom and an outside loo and no central heating and where we were constantly reminded of nuclear destruction and smog and rationing was a recent memory of my parents.

    The good old days were not good compared to any time since.
    Suspect part of the problem has been boredom. You see hints of it in the "we need bad times to produce great men" thing. Which isn't even original;

    “In Italy for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.”

    Some people crave the excitement and assume that they will be one of the great men. But Switzerland was way better to live in than Italy.

    Doesn't mean we can't/shouldn't try to do better.
    It’s probably true, that times of hardship and terror do drive artistic creativity.

    Much Greek tragedy was written in the closing years of the Peloponnesian War; early medieval monastic Ireland was an intellectual powerhouse; the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries combined utter barbarism with great works of art, music, and literature.

    But, most of us would prefer not to live in such worlds.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,153
    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    William Atkinson's resignation article in ConHome. He's a bit...anguished.

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/04/living-on-a-thin-line/

    The social contract is broken. Before me lies a future of personal immiseration, demographic revolution, and global war. I just want the same lives my parents had. I want a Britain that is vaguely civilised, not a bankrupt, self-loathing, and crime-ridden Yookay

    He may be disappointed in that case. But is definitely sounding the alarm.

    Too many in our party don’t quite realise just how much we’re hated. MPs are blinded by survivorship bias. Labour’s travails lull them into a false sense of smug security, rather than waking them up to how volatile politics has become. They write Reform off as a passing fad, and assume that since we’ve made it through 300-odd years, that we have a divine right to exist.

    We do not. We are dying on our feet.
    That’s the problem.

    So many people on the right have persuaded themselves that living in a flawed, but free and prosperous democracy, is the worst fate that can befall a nation.

    It used to be the far left which was this fucking stupid.
    Because your diagnosis of the uk is fucking bullshit
    You’re a paranoid rich man, who’s persuaded himself he lives in the worst of times.

    My grandparents faced much worse, with a lot more fortitude.
    I've faced much worse.
    My 10 year old daughter came home from school the other day concerned because people had been telling her Putin was going to drop a bomb on Britain. Which he might. But is struck me that for my childhood, the threat of annihilation was the constant background noise. As was discussed earlier, the USSR's plans for the destruction of the world were so comprehensive they even made time to wipe out New Zealand.
    Objectively, today is a far better time to be alive than the early 80s.
    I remember being scared witless by The War Game and Threads.
    @leon often accuses us of being centrist dads, but in reality he is a centrist granddad. He reminds me of those oldies who always say it was better in the good old days. It wasn't. Not by a long chalk. I grew up in a house without a bathroom and an outside loo and no central heating and where we were constantly reminded of nuclear destruction and smog and rationing was a recent memory of my parents.

    The good old days were not good compared to any time since.
    Suspect part of the problem has been boredom. You see hints of it in the "we need bad times to produce great men" thing. Which isn't even original;

    “In Italy for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.”

    Some people crave the excitement and assume that they will be one of the great men. But Switzerland was way better to live in than Italy.

    Doesn't mean we can't/shouldn't try to do better.
    It’s probably true, that times of hardship and terror do drive artistic creativity.
    Bravo Two Zero.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,015

    Interesting.

    John Bolton is tonight saying EU moves to kind of replace NATO are a mistake as it gives Trump a good way to say 'there you go, you don't need us'

    What's the alternative? The USA is now in bed with Putin, it cannot be trusted.
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