The BBC is still reporting yesterday's news as though Starmer's 'we don't have to choose between Europe and the US' is a realistic option.
While I have some sympathy with the idea, he needs to face facts. For the next couple of years at the very least, equidistance is going to be a stance beyond even the most rubber limbed.
The BBC has a tough job at times like this. What Starmer has said is a fact; that he has other private thoughts (I hope he does) is an opinion. The BBC does evaluation but doesn't do overt editorialising. To be fair to the BBC its evaluations have been realistic without trying to be incendiary. It is also a public broadcaster, so has a particular job in times of crisis to be factually reliable.
Most of the media have entirely abandoned the distinction between facts and opinions. The BBC is clinging on to the idea, it's not easy.
I'm not attacking the BBC; just pointing out that the news it's reporting is, like government messaging, well behind the developing reality.
I've always hesitated to dis them for being a little slow on developing news, as it's not their function to front run.
That said, there's plenty of misguided opinion intermingled with fact. Looking at you, BBC US correspondents.
It has been a left wing talking point my entire adult life that "trickle down" economics has failed.
Quite probably. Who is advocating it now?
Almost everyone on here? The constant shouts for tax cuts on the rich and tax cuts for companies. That's trickle down economics. Maybe it does work, for the rich, but it doesn't seem to work for the former middle and working classes, either here or in America. I don't know what the answer is and I am not pretending to. However, it isn't exactly coherent to argue that domestic economic policies have failed and then argue for more of the same.
Gary Stevenson, the young ex-trader and Economist has been shouting about this for a couple of years. I'm not clever enough to make a decision on if what he says makes sense, but basically, he believes that wealth inequality is the biggest problem the country faces. The very rich and super rich and the transnational corporations are in fact bad for most of us. They suck up resources, buy the houses to rent or sell to the rest of the population, own or are shareholders of the businesses that produce food, utilities, finance our morgages and loans. They get "growth", while we pay ever more and our wages flatline. It's a powerful argument that he makes.
God, do I really have to list the wars that the UK and/or France fought since 2000?
There was a characteristic response from a "Reform UK" account on that thread. There's a section of Ref UK online supporters who are like this - I can't comment on how many, or the % who are bots. It very much feels like the Pfaffer (footy, flags, far right) types we get trolling the Active Travel niche: G @Gordon_998877 1h In every one of them, the UK was the poodle of the US. Starmer needs to stop speaking words & listen to Trump before he gets Ukraine & us into more trouble. Bio: "Kick activism out of football. Oh and while you're here ... don't forget to vote Reform! London, England Joined January 2017"
Listening to our Angela trying to avoid giving Emma Barnett any opinion of worth on the US/Ukraine crisis is priceless #R4
She's on to be interviewed about the workers' rights bill, and Starmer has very clearly told her for god's sake not to say anything about foreign affairs!
TBF to Rayner, she did well, she did her job and conceded nothing; we are in the middle of a real crisis in which moving parts are moving. I think most people have completely supported the attempt by UK and France to give the USA every opening to stay onside, when there is nothing we can exert by way of power, hardball or economics to twist the USA arm.
This entails not attacking Trump and his government in public on western alliance issues until the chance has gone and the time is right. We know what our government thinks and wants to do in respect of Plan A. Plan B is rather tough going, as I think we are about to find out. If there is to be a Plan B, I hope the committee sorting it is not live on R4.
I don't disagree. But it also seems that time is very close indeed.
Yes. It looks close. But government, unlike the rest of us, can't shift 80 years of alliances on their axis by the same process as a pub conversation. We can change and change back in the course of days and weeks. Government policy can't do that. Which means that going from USA being greatest friend to dangerous maverick (sadly I think that is so) is a thing you don't announce in a hesitant process.
Indeed. I am sure a lot of this is being said through gritted teeth, but fundamentally Starmer is playing the right game at the moment. The realities of government policy dictate it.
But it would be folly if there is not significant work being done in the background to reach out to European capitals to start laying the foundations for our future. I don’t think Starmer is naive, and I hope the Civil Service aren’t either.
It is good to see Badenoch making supportive noises too.
I know some (many?) disagree, and I've said this before, but I do wonder if a significant part of us all feeling poorer is that we have so much more stuff to spend money on than was the case in previous decades.
From phones to the Internet; from computers/tablets to your Netflix and/or Sky subscription.
Is a major part of the problem rampant consumerism?
I think so. I have been trying my best in recent months to rein it all in. Deleting Facebook and Instagram and not watching commercial TV with adverts helps. So does working from home...
It’s about expectations and previous experience.
Just going to the pub has gone, for many people, from a casual of-the-moment decision to an expensive event.
Cheap eating out has also vanished for many.
Housing takes a staggering proportion of income.
And so on
So, for many people, their everyday experience is that they can do less with what they have, than they used to.
How do pub prices compare now to those of previous generations ?
How many minutes does the average worker need to work to pay for a pint ?
I wonder if pub prices seem high mainly because supermarket alcohol is so cheap.
Just finished The New Roman Empire by Anthony Kaldellis. Rather like it, although I think he's perhaps a shade too kind to Monomachos. He could've installed a proper co-emperor rather than leaving it too late which enabled Theodora to replace his sensible choice with another bureaucrat non-entity.
I know some (many?) disagree, and I've said this before, but I do wonder if a significant part of us all feeling poorer is that we have so much more stuff to spend money on than was the case in previous decades.
From phones to the Internet; from computers/tablets to your Netflix and/or Sky subscription.
Is a major part of the problem rampant consumerism?
I think so. I have been trying my best in recent months to rein it all in. Deleting Facebook and Instagram and not watching commercial TV with adverts helps. So does working from home...
It’s about expectations and previous experience.
Just going to the pub has gone, for many people, from a casual of-the-moment decision to an expensive event.
Cheap eating out has also vanished for many.
Housing takes a staggering proportion of income.
And so on
So, for many people, their everyday experience is that they can do less with what they have, than they used to.
How do pub prices compare now to those of previous generations ?
How many minutes does the average worker need to work to pay for a pint ?
I wonder if pub prices seem high mainly because supermarket alcohol is so cheap.
You can make a similar argument though by comparing Wetherspoons prices with other pubs
Listening to our Angela trying to avoid giving Emma Barnett any opinion of worth on the US/Ukraine crisis is priceless #R4
She's on to be interviewed about the workers' rights bill, and Starmer has very clearly told her for god's sake not to say anything about foreign affairs!
TBF to Rayner, she did well, she did her job and conceded nothing; we are in the middle of a real crisis in which moving parts are moving. I think most people have completely supported the attempt by UK and France to give the USA every opening to stay onside, when there is nothing we can exert by way of power, hardball or economics to twist the USA arm.
This entails not attacking Trump and his government in public on western alliance issues until the chance has gone and the time is right. We know what our government thinks and wants to do in respect of Plan A. Plan B is rather tough going, as I think we are about to find out. If there is to be a Plan B, I hope the committee sorting it is not live on R4.
I don't disagree. But it also seems that time is very close indeed.
Yes. It looks close. But government, unlike the rest of us, can't shift 80 years of alliances on their axis by the same process as a pub conversation. We can change and change back in the course of days and weeks. Government policy can't do that. Which means that going from USA being greatest friend to dangerous maverick (sadly I think that is so) is a thing you don't announce in a hesitant process.
Indeed. I am sure a lot of this is being said through gritted teeth, but fundamentally Starmer is playing the right game at the moment. The realities of government policy dictate it.
But it would be folly if there is not significant work being done in the background to reach out to European capitals to start laying the foundations for our future. I don’t think Starmer is naive, and I hope the Civil Service aren’t either.
It is good to see Badenoch making supportive noises too.
It wasn't only Kemi but Cleverly and Tugendhat were very supportive and complimentary of Starmer
Also petition to cancel Trump's visit has hit 100,000 signatures
What if Doug Ford cuts off all energy transfers "with a smile on his face?" Would that be casus belli for Trump? And when's the Reichstag fire?
Well us plucky Brits burned the Whitehouse to the ground in 1812 - its over to agent Mandelson to step up into the Marinus van der Lubbe role. Won't be the first time that Mandelson and lube have been involved, I'd wager.
I know some (many?) disagree, and I've said this before, but I do wonder if a significant part of us all feeling poorer is that we have so much more stuff to spend money on than was the case in previous decades.
From phones to the Internet; from computers/tablets to your Netflix and/or Sky subscription.
Is a major part of the problem rampant consumerism?
I think so. I have been trying my best in recent months to rein it all in. Deleting Facebook and Instagram and not watching commercial TV with adverts helps. So does working from home...
It’s about expectations and previous experience.
Just going to the pub has gone, for many people, from a casual of-the-moment decision to an expensive event.
Cheap eating out has also vanished for many.
Housing takes a staggering proportion of income.
And so on
So, for many people, their everyday experience is that they can do less with what they have, than they used to.
How do pub prices compare now to those of previous generations ?
How many minutes does the average worker need to work to pay for a pint ?
I wonder if pub prices seem high mainly because supermarket alcohol is so cheap.
You can make a similar argument though by comparing Wetherspoons prices with other pubs
Indeed you can.
Inflation rates are very person specific.
And ultimately the housing situation dominate everything else.
Those people with no, or very low, mortgage payments should be on financial easy street.
Probably the most dramatic day of Trump's Presidency so far and the clearest example yet of 'America First.'
All US aid paused to Ukraine until Zelensky agrees to peace talks. Tariffs imposed of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports and 20% on Chinese imports.
Canada and China retaliate with retaliatory tariffs on US imports, 'Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada will immediately target $30bn worth of products, and target the remaining $125bn over 21 days. Any fresh duties Canada imposes will be in place for as long as the US tariffs are, Trudeau had said.
China has said that it will fight to the "bitter end" if the US continues its trade actions.
"If the United States... persists in waging a tariff war, a trade war, or any other kind of war, the Chinese side will fight them to the bitter end," foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press conference on Tuesday afternoon.
Beijing's counter measures - which include up to 15% tariffs on a range of American agricultural and food products - are to protect China's own interests, he said.'
Mexican President to announce their tariffs later today
That “impoundment” of funds Congress has determined should go to Ukraine is illegal under the terms of the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, and it is unconstitutional because the Constitution gives to Congress, not to the president, the power to set government spending and to make laws. The president’s job is to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.”
It was for a similar impoundment of congressionally appropriated funds for Ukraine, holding them back until Zelensky agreed to tilt the 2020 election by smearing Joe Biden, that the House of Representatives impeached Trump in 2019. It is not hard to imagine that Trump chose to repeat that performance, in public this time, as a demonstration of his determination to act as he wishes regardless of laws and Constitution.
Heather Cox Richardson - Letters from an American email
Listening to our Angela trying to avoid giving Emma Barnett any opinion of worth on the US/Ukraine crisis is priceless #R4
She's on to be interviewed about the workers' rights bill, and Starmer has very clearly told her for god's sake not to say anything about foreign affairs!
TBF to Rayner, she did well, she did her job and conceded nothing; we are in the middle of a real crisis in which moving parts are moving. I think most people have completely supported the attempt by UK and France to give the USA every opening to stay onside, when there is nothing we can exert by way of power, hardball or economics to twist the USA arm.
This entails not attacking Trump and his government in public on western alliance issues until the chance has gone and the time is right. We know what our government thinks and wants to do in respect of Plan A. Plan B is rather tough going, as I think we are about to find out. If there is to be a Plan B, I hope the committee sorting it is not live on R4.
I don't disagree. But it also seems that time is very close indeed.
Yes. It looks close. But government, unlike the rest of us, can't shift 80 years of alliances on their axis by the same process as a pub conversation. We can change and change back in the course of days and weeks. Government policy can't do that. Which means that going from USA being greatest friend to dangerous maverick (sadly I think that is so) is a thing you don't announce in a hesitant process.
Indeed. I am sure a lot of this is being said through gritted teeth, but fundamentally Starmer is playing the right game at the moment. The realities of government policy dictate it.
But it would be folly if there is not significant work being done in the background to reach out to European capitals to start laying the foundations for our future. I don’t think Starmer is naive, and I hope the Civil Service aren’t either.
It is good to see Badenoch making supportive noises too.
Of the various Tory leadership candidates I think Cleverly would have been best positioned to benefit from the current situation. Kemi is saying the right things but her until very recently attempted hitching to the Trump world view rather dilutes the impact.
Probably the most dramatic day of Trump's Presidency so far and the clearest example yet of 'America First.'
All US aid paused to Ukraine until Zelensky agrees to peace talks. Tariffs imposed of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports and 20% on Chinese imports.
Canada and China retaliate with retaliatory tariffs on US imports, 'Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada will immediately target $30bn worth of products, and target the remaining $125bn over 21 days. Any fresh duties Canada imposes will be in place for as long as the US tariffs are, Trudeau had said.
China has said that it will fight to the "bitter end" if the US continues its trade actions.
"If the United States... persists in waging a tariff war, a trade war, or any other kind of war, the Chinese side will fight them to the bitter end," foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press conference on Tuesday afternoon.
Beijing's counter measures - which include up to 15% tariffs on a range of American agricultural and food products - are to protect China's own interests, he said.'
Mexican President to announce their tariffs later today
I know some (many?) disagree, and I've said this before, but I do wonder if a significant part of us all feeling poorer is that we have so much more stuff to spend money on than was the case in previous decades.
From phones to the Internet; from computers/tablets to your Netflix and/or Sky subscription.
Is a major part of the problem rampant consumerism?
It's all a bit deja vu, isn't it? Madison - Mandelson, too similar, perhaps?
I also see protectionism is back on the agenda - it never really went away, entirely, but it rarely ends well. Expert oriented economies like New Zealand will really suffer if this gets serious and prolonged.
The UK is at risk of seeing neascent signs of renewed economic activity not getting snuffed out by a new global trade war - not good news for Starmer who is presumably banking on economic wellbeing to ensure re-election but opposition parties with aspirations to govern have to think how they will deal with a stagnant economy in 2029.
A propos very little, I see Poilievre has been using one of my favourite WSC quotes which seems particularly apposite at this time:
You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities.
No amount of work on the global stage will save Starmer from the consequences of domestic non delivery.
Starmer has done well this year and shown real leadership over Ukraine. But people’s bills are going up and the standard of living is falling. People feel that.
Of course he’s right. The same will be true of the USA. But hopefully it does at least mean the beneficiaries of Labour underperforming wouldn’t be Reform.
Yes, I think that's a good observation, the Ukraine crisis won't save Labour but it will hurt Reform a lot and it creates a window for the Tories once everything has calmed down a bit and the focus is back on domestic policies.
Yeah, but the tories have got fucking Kemi. A politician singularly lacking in the deftness, energy or opportunism to take advantage of any Labour woes. Waiting for Reform to fall apart, while agreeing with them, is her only and likely not successful strategy.
Kemi is not their main problem, which is every Tory PM from Thatcher onwards. Just this weekend Cleverly called out Starmer for not increasing defence spending enough. Well, who the flip does he think cut it?
As defence, so prisons and police and houses and everything else. Whoever wears the armband for the blue team faces the same search for PMQs that don't lead to own goals.
... I think the relevant number is the Estonian one of 0.25% of GDP in military aid, especially to Ukraine's domestic defence industries. ...
It's 2.2% according to to Statistica
I'm referring to the proposal their PM Kaja Kallas put out in Jan 2024 that 0.25% of GDP in military aid should be the standard for all European countries. Sorry - I thought it was a number that was widespread in the ether.
Ursula Von der Leyen appointed her as High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (Cathy Ashton's old role) last year when she "Hungary-proofed" her Commission. That's why I think it will come more to the fore.
0.25% of GDP for the UK is approximately £7 billion per annum.
I know some (many?) disagree, and I've said this before, but I do wonder if a significant part of us all feeling poorer is that we have so much more stuff to spend money on than was the case in previous decades.
From phones to the Internet; from computers/tablets to your Netflix and/or Sky subscription.
Is a major part of the problem rampant consumerism?
Completely agree.
To an economist that is what getting wealthier means - having more stuff and therefore having more stuff to spend more money on. Modernity maybe tells us that happiness is something rather different, and also that the main individual benefit of the affluent society is that as long as you reject most of it, and pick your way carefully there are lots of niches, more than in North Korea or 13th century England, for you to find a place in. But if you believe in wealth or modernity as an end in itself you are sunk and your spirit dies. Is it not possible that the USA has just now been taken over by dead souls?
... I think the relevant number is the Estonian one of 0.25% of GDP in military aid, especially to Ukraine's domestic defence industries. ...
It's 2.2% according to to Statistica
I think that is defence spending overall whilst Matt was referring spcifically to aid to Ukraine.
Without looking, I think the 2.2% is cumulative aid Estonia has sent to Ukraine since the start of the conflict as a % of current GDP, which is a common metric.
Checking, Estonian defence expenditure is 3.4%, which is the second highest as %GDP in NATO, after Poland.
It's all a bit deja vu, isn't it? Madison - Mandelson, too similar, perhaps?
I also see protectionism is back on the agenda - it never really went away, entirely, but it rarely ends well. Expert oriented economies like New Zealand will really suffer if this gets serious and prolonged.
The UK is at risk of seeing neascent signs of renewed economic activity not getting snuffed out by a new global trade war - not good news for Starmer who is presumably banking on economic wellbeing to ensure re-election but opposition parties with aspirations to govern have to think how they will deal with a stagnant economy in 2029.
A propos very little, I see Poilievre has been using one of my favourite WSC quotes which seems particularly apposite at this time:
You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities.
The economic fallout for the UK is a little hard to judge.
On the downside:
- gloomy news, a sense of foreboding and uncertainty is never good for business investment or consumer confidence - Market volatility ditto. Though notably the FTSE 100 is barely down this morning
On the upside:
- bonanza time for European A&D sector - Oil price is falling and may continue to fall if US demand falters - We seem likely to import deflation from China and Europe as they divert supply away from the US. Yes there’s a risk of damaging dumping, but our domestic industries are less vulnerable than (particularly) Germany - All this means the BoE may have more scope to cut interest rates. Gilt yields have been softening
What if Doug Ford cuts off all energy transfers "with a smile on his face?" Would that be casus belli for Trump? And when's the Reichstag fire?
Well us plucky Brits burned the Whitehouse to the ground in 1812 - its over to agent Mandelson to step up into the Marinus van der Lubbe role. Won't be the first time that Mandelson and lube have been involved, I'd wager.
That I think was the last war fought for territory in North America that the USA lost. They have fomented and won several since.
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
It's all a bit deja vu, isn't it? Madison - Mandelson, too similar, perhaps?
I also see protectionism is back on the agenda - it never really went away, entirely, but it rarely ends well. Expert oriented economies like New Zealand will really suffer if this gets serious and prolonged.
The UK is at risk of seeing neascent signs of renewed economic activity not getting snuffed out by a new global trade war - not good news for Starmer who is presumably banking on economic wellbeing to ensure re-election but opposition parties with aspirations to govern have to think how they will deal with a stagnant economy in 2029.
A propos very little, I see Poilievre has been using one of my favourite WSC quotes which seems particularly apposite at this time:
You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities.
The economic fallout for the UK is a little hard to judge.
On the downside:
- gloomy news, a sense of foreboding and uncertainty is never good for business investment or consumer confidence - Market volatility ditto. Though notably the FTSE 100 is barely down this morning
On the upside:
- bonanza time for European A&D sector - Oil price is falling and may continue to fall if US demand falters - We seem likely to import deflation from China and Europe as they divert supply away from the US. Yes there’s a risk of damaging dumping, but our domestic industries are less vulnerable than (particularly) Germany - All this means the BoE may have more scope to cut interest rates. Gilt yields have been softening
It should be good for parts of the Midlands, North and Scotland.
It's all a bit deja vu, isn't it? Madison - Mandelson, too similar, perhaps?
I also see protectionism is back on the agenda - it never really went away, entirely, but it rarely ends well. Expert oriented economies like New Zealand will really suffer if this gets serious and prolonged.
The UK is at risk of seeing neascent signs of renewed economic activity not getting snuffed out by a new global trade war - not good news for Starmer who is presumably banking on economic wellbeing to ensure re-election but opposition parties with aspirations to govern have to think how they will deal with a stagnant economy in 2029.
A propos very little, I see Poilievre has been using one of my favourite WSC quotes which seems particularly apposite at this time:
You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities.
The economic fallout for the UK is a little hard to judge.
On the downside:
- gloomy news, a sense of foreboding and uncertainty is never good for business investment or consumer confidence - Market volatility ditto. Though notably the FTSE 100 is barely down this morning
On the upside:
- bonanza time for European A&D sector - Oil price is falling and may continue to fall if US demand falters - We seem likely to import deflation from China and Europe as they divert supply away from the US. Yes there’s a risk of damaging dumping, but our domestic industries are less vulnerable than (particularly) Germany - All this means the BoE may have more scope to cut interest rates. Gilt yields have been softening
New Zealand's exports are almost all to China, Japan and the Mid Pacific. It won't be good for the Kiwi Fruit trade that my cousin is heavily involved with but timber won't be affected. Nor will New Zealand's greatest secret trade, gold out of the black sands near Cape Foulwinds.
1. British households and businesses have spent too little and saved too much since the financial crisis. Private debt is way lower than it used to be. As a result government tax take is down and public debt is higher.
2. Labour came in on a manifesto of not raising VAT or income tax and employee NI, the big earners for the government.
3. Government needs more money and the economy needs more demand
Hence spend for victory. Here’s the bones of the speech: “We face the biggest security challenge since WW2, and we must fund a huge expansion in the defence budget while making sure we fix potholes, keep crime off the streets and reduce waiting lists. We promised not to raise tax. But you can do your bit. For every pound you spend on that new car (not Tesla) or that home extension or that trip to the cinema, or for you businesses that new IT system or warehouse automation, 20p goes straight to our fighting fund to get Britain growing and stick it to Putin. So I want you to go out and spend. Spend like you’ve never spent before. Your country needs you”
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
There are 15 days between the 2 polls, so, despite the efforts by the orange coward to ingratiate himself with Europeans, it is possible that the UK public overall have a significantly worse opinion of him since 11 Feb.
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
There are 15 days between the 2 polls, so, despite the efforts by the orange coward to ingratiate himself with Europeans, it is possible that the UK public overall have a significantly worse opinion of him since 11 Feb.
Almost certainly, but bound to be further down the toilet with Scots also after whywon'tyouwearasuitgate.
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
There are 15 days between the 2 polls, so, despite the efforts by the orange coward to ingratiate himself with Europeans, it is possible that the UK public overall have a significantly worse opinion of him since 11 Feb.
Almost certainly, but bound to be further down the toilet with Scots also after whywon'tyouwearasuitgate.
America goes from the most admired nation on the planet to not just an ally of North Korea but North Korea itself in some respects, in less than a month.
America goes from the most admired nation on the planet to not just an ally of North Korea but North Korea itself in some respects, in less than a month.
Civilisation can fall so quickly.
Trump's US now has a special relationship with Putin's Russia, Netanyahu's Israel and Milei's Argentina basically in that order and is on amicable terms with Kim's North Korea. The rest of the world can largely go hang
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
America goes from the most admired nation on the planet to not just an ally of North Korea but North Korea itself in some respects, in less than a month.
Civilisation can fall so quickly.
America remains far more recoverable than Russia/China/The Middle East are westernisable.
Listening to our Angela trying to avoid giving Emma Barnett any opinion of worth on the US/Ukraine crisis is priceless #R4
She's on to be interviewed about the workers' rights bill, and Starmer has very clearly told her for god's sake not to say anything about foreign affairs!
TBF to Rayner, she did well, she did her job and conceded nothing; we are in the middle of a real crisis in which moving parts are moving. I think most people have completely supported the attempt by UK and France to give the USA every opening to stay onside, when there is nothing we can exert by way of power, hardball or economics to twist the USA arm.
This entails not attacking Trump and his government in public on western alliance issues until the chance has gone and the time is right. We know what our government thinks and wants to do in respect of Plan A. Plan B is rather tough going, as I think we are about to find out. If there is to be a Plan B, I hope the committee sorting it is not live on R4.
I don't disagree. But it also seems that time is very close indeed.
Yes. It looks close. But government, unlike the rest of us, can't shift 80 years of alliances on their axis by the same process as a pub conversation. We can change and change back in the course of days and weeks. Government policy can't do that. Which means that going from USA being greatest friend to dangerous maverick (sadly I think that is so) is a thing you don't announce in a hesitant process.
Indeed. I am sure a lot of this is being said through gritted teeth, but fundamentally Starmer is playing the right game at the moment. The realities of government policy dictate it.
But it would be folly if there is not significant work being done in the background to reach out to European capitals to start laying the foundations for our future. I don’t think Starmer is naive, and I hope the Civil Service aren’t either.
It is good to see Badenoch making supportive noises too.
Of the various Tory leadership candidates I think Cleverly would have been best positioned to benefit from the current situation. Kemi is saying the right things but her until very recently attempted hitching to the Trump world view rather dilutes the impact.
Tugendhat even more, as it is the LDs will see a bit of a poll bounce most likely
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
1. British households and businesses have spent too little and saved too much since the financial crisis. Private debt is way lower than it used to be. As a result government tax take is down and public debt is higher.
2. Labour came in on a manifesto of not raising VAT or income tax and employee NI, the big earners for the government.
3. Government needs more money and the economy needs more demand
Hence spend for victory. Here’s the bones of the speech: “We face the biggest security challenge since WW2, and we must fund a huge expansion in the defence budget while making sure we fix potholes, keep crime off the streets and reduce waiting lists. We promised not to raise tax. But you can do your bit. For every pound you spend on that new car (not Tesla) or that home extension or that trip to the cinema, or for you businesses that new IT system or warehouse automation, 20p goes straight to our fighting fund to get Britain growing and stick it to Putin. So I want you to go out and spend. Spend like you’ve never spent before. Your country needs you”
The people with the demand don't have the money.
The people with the money don't have the demand.
It leads back to housing, student debt and intergenerational inequality generally.
It has been a left wing talking point my entire adult life that "trickle down" economics has failed.
The issue is - to coin a phrase - the “citizens of nowhere”.
In the past there were wealthy individuals. But they were part of their local communities and felt a sense of obligation to contribute.
These days the uber wealthy have no compunction about moving to Monaco to save 1% off their taxes. They have no loyalty or commitment.
It’s the divide between rich and poor not the difference that undermines society
Yes, but as companies more than as people? In the past, companies were rooted in local communities and felt a sense of obligation to contribute. These days, the big international companies have no compunction about moving activity or profits to somewhere else.
I suspect this will help the Tories and their campaign to portray Nigel Farage to two time general election loser Jeremy Corbyn, Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet after his response to the Salisbury poisonings.
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
There are 15 days between the 2 polls, so, despite the efforts by the orange coward to ingratiate himself with Europeans, it is possible that the UK public overall have a significantly worse opinion of him since 11 Feb.
Almost certainly, but bound to be further down the toilet with Scots also after whywon'tyouwearasuitgate.
The premise of the Tweet is therefore flawed as we don't know where the rest of the UK stood on the issue on 11 Feb. they could have started from the same place and gone down in tandem.
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
... I think the relevant number is the Estonian one of 0.25% of GDP in military aid, especially to Ukraine's domestic defence industries. ...
It's 2.2% according to to Statistica
I think that is defence spending overall whilst Matt was referring spcifically to aid to Ukraine.
It is not defence spending overall in Estonia. It is aid specifically for Ukraine.
Bilateral aid allocations to Ukraine as a share of 2021 donor country gross domestic product (GDP) between January 24, 2022 and December 31, 2024, by country
1. British households and businesses have spent too little and saved too much since the financial crisis. Private debt is way lower than it used to be. As a result government tax take is down and public debt is higher.
2. Labour came in on a manifesto of not raising VAT or income tax and employee NI, the big earners for the government.
3. Government needs more money and the economy needs more demand
Hence spend for victory. Here’s the bones of the speech: “We face the biggest security challenge since WW2, and we must fund a huge expansion in the defence budget while making sure we fix potholes, keep crime off the streets and reduce waiting lists. We promised not to raise tax. But you can do your bit. For every pound you spend on that new car (not Tesla) or that home extension or that trip to the cinema, or for you businesses that new IT system or warehouse automation, 20p goes straight to our fighting fund to get Britain growing and stick it to Putin. So I want you to go out and spend. Spend like you’ve never spent before. Your country needs you”
The people with the demand don't have the money.
The people with the money don't have the demand.
It leads back to housing, student debt and intergenerational inequality generally.
Saving rates were incredibly high during the pandemic, unless you were furloughed. I think it's part of why the cost-of-living crisis hit so hard - higher income folk had plenty to splurge even as prices went up, feeding inflation.
In the latest example of Musk’s god like genius, DOGE has been sacking IRS officials and closing tax offices.
Want to save money and close the deficit? Here’s an idea: cut back on your revenue generation activities.
An error that the Tories made in the 2010s and came to regret, then reverse.
There's also the Department of Justice.
This week one of them told a Federal Judge that they could not properly resource dealing with a legal case because they had lost so many staff, so the submission to the Court did not include the necessary supporting evidential documents.
The Judge slightly roasted his nuts. My photo quota.
It has been a left wing talking point my entire adult life that "trickle down" economics has failed.
The issue is - to coin a phrase - the “citizens of nowhere”.
In the past there were wealthy individuals. But they were part of their local communities and felt a sense of obligation to contribute.
These days the uber wealthy have no compunction about moving to Monaco to save 1% off their taxes. They have no loyalty or commitment.
It’s the divide between rich and poor not the difference that undermines society
Yes, but as companies more than as people? In the past, companies were rooted in local communities and felt a sense of obligation to contribute. These days, the big international companies have no compunction about moving activity or profits to somewhere else.
Pay third world wages Sell at first world prices Pay Monaco tax rates
What was the last war America fought that it unambiguously "won", rather than dragging itself and its allies into a continuing shit storm? Grenada?
It's a rather alarming thought that if DJT were to suffer one of the possible consequences of old age and 'drop off the twig' he would, until early 2029, be replaced by Vance.
America goes from the most admired nation on the planet to not just an ally of North Korea but North Korea itself in some respects, in less than a month.
Civilisation can fall so quickly.
Two interesting elements in this: 100 million Americans haven't taken to the streets in gigantic protest.
And from this side of the water free speech and free independent media appear intact. Will be wake up one morning to hear that Jon Stewart, Steve Colbert, all the staff of the NYT, MSNBC and The Atlantic have been arrested? It seems to me that this has gone from impossible to extremely unlikely in about a week.
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
I can't remember what I posted in November let alone what someone else did, but thanks for your continuing and undying interest.
Despite your rather touching paranoid delusion that seems to believe that I follow your every word, I reply to your posts as much as, in fact probably less, than anyone else. Indeed I've hardly been on here at all since November. But, let's face it, it's all about you, it's your world, we just live in it. For that I'm grateful. Thank you.
I'm off to look at some LinkedIn profiles like the weirdo I am. Say hi to Stu for me.
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
So more "shock" overnight then. Except it isn't because this US administration is nothing if not predictable. Assume maximum stupidity and malevolence and you're there. I reckon the whole notion of a "US security guarantee" for Ukraine is becoming nonsensical. Any such guarantee from Donald Trump is worth precious little when he is no more trustworthy than Vladimir Putin. The same goes for the (supposedly) gold standard insurance of NATO deterrence. What value does Art5 have if the US no longer stands behind it?
They should be able to change the name back with ease.
Post of the week.
On Abrdn: maybe this is an indication that our society has passed peak insanity. We can no longer afford luxury beliefs like that of the superfluity of interior vowels.
New water bills beginning to arrrive. Mine is £388 up from £282. (One bedroom flat with no meter, listed building, owner won't help install meters).
One of my biggest bugbears is that we still have a situation where properties are unmetered. We would never do this for electricity or gas, so why is it allowed for water? Once you've paid your 388 quid where is the incentive to use less water? You can just run a tap all day for fun if you want.
... I think the relevant number is the Estonian one of 0.25% of GDP in military aid, especially to Ukraine's domestic defence industries. ...
It's 2.2% according to to Statistica
I think that is defence spending overall whilst Matt was referring spcifically to aid to Ukraine.
It is not defence spending overall in Estonia. It is aid specifically for Ukraine.
Bilateral aid allocations to Ukraine as a share of 2021 donor country gross domestic product (GDP) between January 24, 2022 and December 31, 2024, by country
p.s. The Estonian defence ministry says "Estonia has provided significant military assistance to Ukraine. By early 2024, this aid was worth around €500 million, which is more than 1.4% of Estonia's GDP" So considerably more than 0.25%
Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him. The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
I can't remember what I posted in November let alone what someone else did, but thanks for your continuing and undying interest.
Despite your rather touching paranoid delusion that seems to believe that I follow your every word, I reply to your posts as much as, in fact probably less, than anyone else. Indeed I've hardly been on here at all since November. But, let's face it, it's all about you, it's your world, we just live in it. For that I'm grateful. Thank you.
I'm off to look at some LinkedIn profiles like the weirdo I am. Say hi to Stu for me.
You seem strangely attached to the idea that we Nats are chatting about you in the ether. Almost paranoid in fact.
Tbf you are a bit of a translucently skinned weirdo.
They should be able to change the name back with ease.
Post of the week.
On Abrdn: maybe this is an indication that our society has passed peak insanity. We can no longer afford luxury beliefs like that of the superfluity of interior vowels.
Try ancient Hebrew which in its earlier forms had no vowels at all. Mss, Dvd 'nd Sml wld hv bn gr8 t txtng.
What was the last war America fought that it unambiguously "won", rather than dragging itself and its allies into a continuing shit storm? Grenada?
Operation Ocean Shield (2009-16) against Somali pirates went well. Operation Observant Compass (2011-7) against the Lord's Resistance Army also largely successful. I think you can argue that intervention in Kosovo (1998-9) and in Haiti (1994-5) was successful.
If you want unambiguous success, then there's the successful invasion of Panama (1989).
Back when Trump was first elected in 2016, I posted that we could see a slow reversal of human rights and liberalism in America. Sadly, I was proven correct. If you are different, or even female, you are lesser.
But what I did not expect was for him to make a significant reversal in foreign policy. Not just trying to extort good deals (for the US) out of countries, but actively shafting the countries that have been America's allies for many decades.
And most Americans appear to be just shrugging as the country they claim to love slides, at best, into dictatorship.
America goes from the most admired nation on the planet to not just an ally of North Korea but North Korea itself in some respects, in less than a month.
Civilisation can fall so quickly.
Two interesting elements in this: 100 million Americans haven't taken to the streets in gigantic protest.
And from this side of the water free speech and free independent media appear intact. Will be wake up one morning to hear that Jon Stewart, Steve Colbert, all the staff of the NYT, MSNBC and The Atlantic have been arrested? It seems to me that this has gone from impossible to extremely unlikely in about a week.
New water bills beginning to arrrive. Mine is £388 up from £282. (One bedroom flat with no meter, listed building, owner won't help install meters).
One of my biggest bugbears is that we still have a situation where properties are unmetered. We would never do this for electricity or gas, so why is it allowed for water? Once you've paid your 388 quid where is the incentive to use less water? You can just run a tap all day for fun if you want.
Madness.
Hard to see why you would. There was a cartoon (xkcd? SMBC?) that I recall in which an engineer, finding his water supply was included in his rent, rigged up a water wheel to generate electricity from it. But I think most people wouldn't do this. I suppose the reason why most places aren't metered is that at the very low price at which water is supplied, it is quite price inelastic, and therefore it saves the water companies less than the cost of installation. What's the price of a bath in a metered property? 20p?
So, has Donald done anything crazy in the past 9hrs that I've been offline?
I suppose very actively supporting Russia in a war against a USA-friendly power doesn't get over the 'crazy' threshold this week. All quiet apart from all our alliances being tilted on their axis.
They should be able to change the name back with ease.
Post of the week.
On Abrdn: maybe this is an indication that our society has passed peak insanity. We can no longer afford luxury beliefs like that of the superfluity of interior vowels.
Try ancient Hebrew which in its earlier forms had no vowels at all. Mss, Dvd 'nd Sml wld hv bn gr8 t txtng.
They should be able to change the name back with ease.
Post of the week.
On Abrdn: maybe this is an indication that our society has passed peak insanity. We can no longer afford luxury beliefs like that of the superfluity of interior vowels.
Try ancient Hebrew which in its earlier forms had no vowels at all. Mss, Dvd 'nd Sml wld hv bn gr8 t txtng.
I'm forced to recall Pratchett's excellent 'Going Postal' where the lead character seeks out the missing letters for the Post Office motto “neither rain nor snow nor glom of nit can stay these mesengers abot their duty.” The missing letters having been appropriated for a sign elsewhere.
Perhaps someone has a shop under the name "The three e's"?
So more "shock" overnight then. Except it isn't because this US administration is nothing if not predictable. Assume maximum stupidity and malevolence and you're there. I reckon the whole notion of a "US security guarantee" for Ukraine is becoming nonsensical. Any such guarantee from Donald Trump is worth precious little when he is no more trustworthy than Vladimir Putin. The same goes for the (supposedly) gold standard insurance of NATO deterrence. What value does Art5 have if the US no longer stands behind it?
Exactly.
A week ago, without offering a security guarantee Donald Trump was asking for $500 billion from Ukraine for nothing.
Now, even with a security guarantee Donald Trump would be asking for $500 billion from Ukraine for nothing.
It's simply extortion, sign the deal or die.
China is less of a threat to Europe than the US right now, and the way the US is behaving they are getting ever closer to the level of Russia.
I know Starmer's not going to come out and say it, and he'll keep banging on about not choosing between Europe and the US, but inside government they must now be scrambling to deal with the real threat of the US as a direct adversary.
NATO, the Special Relationship, the Transatlantic Alliance, Five Eyes, all completely trashed in 43 days.
New water bills beginning to arrrive. Mine is £388 up from £282. (One bedroom flat with no meter, listed building, owner won't help install meters).
One of my biggest bugbears is that we still have a situation where properties are unmetered. We would never do this for electricity or gas, so why is it allowed for water? Once you've paid your 388 quid where is the incentive to use less water? You can just run a tap all day for fun if you want.
Madness.
Hard to see why you would. There was a cartoon (xkcd? SMBC?) that I recall in which an engineer, finding his water supply was included in his rent, rigged up a water wheel to generate electricity from it. But I think most people wouldn't do this. I suppose the reason why most places aren't metered is that at the very low price at which water is supplied, it is quite price inelastic, and therefore it saves the water companies less than the cost of installation. What's the price of a bath in a metered property? 20p?
When I stayed at my parents post PhD but pre Post Doc for a few months my dad complained long and loud about the increased water my showers were using. My M-in-L had to be persuaded to get a meter (she was in a three bed bungalow on her own) and was astonished to see her bill reduce by half. So I think its worth doing and if we have a situation where we have massively leaky supplies, it would concentrate the minds of the suppliers a bit. I also think its plain unfair to have a mixed system.
1. British households and businesses have spent too little and saved too much since the financial crisis. Private debt is way lower than it used to be. As a result government tax take is down and public debt is higher.
2. Labour came in on a manifesto of not raising VAT or income tax and employee NI, the big earners for the government.
3. Government needs more money and the economy needs more demand
Hence spend for victory. Here’s the bones of the speech: “We face the biggest security challenge since WW2, and we must fund a huge expansion in the defence budget while making sure we fix potholes, keep crime off the streets and reduce waiting lists. We promised not to raise tax. But you can do your bit. For every pound you spend on that new car (not Tesla) or that home extension or that trip to the cinema, or for you businesses that new IT system or warehouse automation, 20p goes straight to our fighting fund to get Britain growing and stick it to Putin. So I want you to go out and spend. Spend like you’ve never spent before. Your country needs you”
The people with the demand don't have the money.
The people with the money don't have the demand.
It leads back to housing, student debt and intergenerational inequality generally.
New water bills beginning to arrrive. Mine is £388 up from £282. (One bedroom flat with no meter, listed building, owner won't help install meters).
One of my biggest bugbears is that we still have a situation where properties are unmetered. We would never do this for electricity or gas, so why is it allowed for water? Once you've paid your 388 quid where is the incentive to use less water? You can just run a tap all day for fun if you want.
Madness.
Hard to see why you would. There was a cartoon (xkcd? SMBC?) that I recall in which an engineer, finding his water supply was included in his rent, rigged up a water wheel to generate electricity from it. But I think most people wouldn't do this. I suppose the reason why most places aren't metered is that at the very low price at which water is supplied, it is quite price inelastic, and therefore it saves the water companies less than the cost of installation. What's the price of a bath in a metered property? 20p?
When I stayed at my parents post PhD but pre Post Doc for a few months my dad complained long and loud about the increased water my showers were using. My M-in-L had to be persuaded to get a meter (she was in a three bed bungalow on her own) and was astonished to see her bill reduce by half. So I think its worth doing and if we have a situation where we have massively leaky supplies, it would concentrate the minds of the suppliers a bit. I also think its plain unfair to have a mixed system.
I seem to use quite a lot of water and I only pay £13 a month with a meter. That seems very reasonable to me.
Too early I think. Usually takes 2 weeks to bed in. I expect to see a Tory bounce, Lib Dem flat and Labour bounce with Green and Reform down, but no sign of that yet.
It was an utterly bonkers decision at the time, as lots of people said at the time.
It was n ttrly bnkrs dcsn t th tm, s ltd f ppl sd t th tm.
I recall the adverts when Norwich Union changed to Aviva. They went something along the lines of becoming what you've always wanted to be. Right - you don't want to be associated with a historic organisation, prefering the bland nothingness of a made up name.
Comments
I've always hesitated to dis them for being a little slow on developing news, as it's not their function to front run.
That said, there's plenty of misguided opinion intermingled with fact. Looking at you, BBC US correspondents.
I'm not clever enough to make a decision on if what he says makes sense, but basically, he believes that wealth inequality is the biggest problem the country faces.
The very rich and super rich and the transnational corporations are in fact bad for most of us. They suck up resources, buy the houses to rent or sell to the rest of the population, own or are shareholders of the businesses that produce food, utilities, finance our morgages and loans.
They get "growth", while we pay ever more and our wages flatline.
It's a powerful argument that he makes.
KUDLOW: What's left of the Biden economy is slumping so badly
LEAVITT: Truly, this administration is working around the clock to bring down the cost of living for the American people
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896671463756701865
G @Gordon_998877 1h
In every one of them, the UK was the poodle of the US. Starmer needs to stop speaking words & listen to Trump before he gets Ukraine & us into more trouble.
Bio: "Kick activism out of football.
Oh and while you're here ... don't forget to vote Reform!
London, England Joined January 2017"
The Pope slept all night and continues to rest
Not sure why it was posted last night that he had died
But it would be folly if there is not significant work being done in the background to reach out to European capitals to start laying the foundations for our future. I don’t think Starmer is naive, and I hope the Civil Service aren’t either.
It is good to see Badenoch making supportive noises too.
How many minutes does the average worker need to work to pay for a pint ?
I wonder if pub prices seem high mainly because supermarket alcohol is so cheap.
Also petition to cancel Trump's visit has hit 100,000 signatures
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1896833998829064381?t=mn3aBZ5Cu4-aQSeUIhJoWQ&s=19
Inflation rates are very person specific.
And ultimately the housing situation dominate everything else.
Those people with no, or very low, mortgage payments should be on financial easy street.
All US aid paused to Ukraine until Zelensky agrees to peace talks. Tariffs imposed of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports and 20% on Chinese imports.
Canada and China retaliate with retaliatory tariffs on US imports, 'Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada will immediately target $30bn worth of products, and target the remaining $125bn over 21 days. Any fresh duties Canada imposes will be in place for as long as the US tariffs are, Trudeau had said.
China has said that it will fight to the "bitter end" if the US continues its trade actions.
"If the United States... persists in waging a tariff war, a trade war, or any other kind of war, the Chinese side will fight them to the bitter end," foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press conference on Tuesday afternoon.
Beijing's counter measures - which include up to 15% tariffs on a range of American agricultural and food products - are to protect China's own interests, he said.'
Mexican President to announce their tariffs later today
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvgpdk4257zt
It was for a similar impoundment of congressionally appropriated funds for Ukraine, holding them back until Zelensky agreed to tilt the 2020 election by smearing Joe Biden, that the House of Representatives impeached Trump in 2019. It is not hard to imagine that Trump chose to repeat that performance, in public this time, as a demonstration of his determination to act as he wishes regardless of laws and Constitution.
Heather Cox Richardson - Letters from an American email
Hopefully Trump and America will be the first to be visually challenged.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/652873337219029
How many of that generation of post-war liners is still afloat?
It's all a bit deja vu, isn't it? Madison - Mandelson, too similar, perhaps?
I also see protectionism is back on the agenda - it never really went away, entirely, but it rarely ends well. Expert oriented economies like New Zealand will really suffer if this gets serious and prolonged.
The UK is at risk of seeing neascent signs of renewed economic activity not getting snuffed out by a new global trade war - not good news for Starmer who is presumably banking on economic wellbeing to ensure re-election but opposition parties with aspirations to govern have to think how they will deal with a stagnant economy in 2029.
A propos very little, I see Poilievre has been using one of my favourite WSC quotes which seems particularly apposite at this time:
You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities.
As defence, so prisons and police and houses and everything else. Whoever wears the armband for the blue team faces the same search for PMQs that don't lead to own goals.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/9/7436422/
Ursula Von der Leyen appointed her as High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (Cathy Ashton's old role) last year when she "Hungary-proofed" her Commission. That's why I think it will come more to the fore.
0.25% of GDP for the UK is approximately £7 billion per annum.
Checking, Estonian defence expenditure is 3.4%, which is the second highest as %GDP in NATO, after Poland.
On the downside:
- gloomy news, a sense of foreboding and uncertainty is never good for business investment or consumer confidence
- Market volatility ditto. Though notably the FTSE 100 is barely down this morning
On the upside:
- bonanza time for European A&D sector
- Oil price is falling and may continue to fall if US demand falters
- We seem likely to import deflation from China and Europe as they divert supply away from the US. Yes there’s a risk of damaging dumping, but our domestic industries are less vulnerable than (particularly) Germany
- All this means the BoE may have more scope to cut interest rates. Gilt yields have been softening
Emily Gray
@EmilyIpsosScot
NEW: 71% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump, while 18% have a favourable view of him.
The Scottish public hold more negative views of Trump than the British public overall do - by 14 percentage points.
@IpsosScotland
poll 21-26 Feb
@IpsosUK
poll 7-11 Feb
1/3
https://x.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1896853449683406964
1. British households and businesses have spent too little and saved too much since the financial crisis. Private debt is way lower than it used to be. As a result government tax take is down and public debt is higher.
2. Labour came in on a manifesto of not raising VAT or income tax and employee NI, the big earners for the government.
3. Government needs more money and the economy needs more demand
Hence spend for victory. Here’s the bones of the speech: “We face the biggest security challenge since WW2, and we must fund a huge expansion in the defence budget while making sure we fix potholes, keep crime off the streets and reduce waiting lists. We promised not to raise tax. But you can do your bit. For every pound you spend on that new car (not Tesla) or that home extension or that trip to the cinema, or for you businesses that new IT system or warehouse automation, 20p goes straight to our fighting fund to get Britain growing and stick it to Putin. So I want you to go out and spend. Spend like you’ve never
spent before. Your country needs you”
Want to save money and close the deficit? Here’s an idea: cut back on your revenue generation activities.
An error that the Tories made in the 2010s and came to regret, then reverse.
Civilisation can fall so quickly.
Trump may well have given a boost to those countries.
Also are there any current tariffs between China and Canada or Mexico ?
"More Scots support Donald Trump than anywhere else in Europe"
https://www.scotsman.com/news/more-scots-support-donald-trump-than-anywhere-else-in-europe-4851231
(Other views and opinion polls are available).
The people with the money don't have the demand.
It leads back to housing, student debt and intergenerational inequality generally.
Bilateral aid allocations to Ukraine as a share of 2021 donor country gross domestic product (GDP) between January 24, 2022 and December 31, 2024, by country
This week one of them told a Federal Judge that they could not properly resource dealing with a legal case because they had lost so many staff, so the submission to the Court did not include the necessary supporting evidential documents.
The Judge slightly roasted his nuts. My photo quota.
https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/3/2/overseer-chuang-doge-hearing/
Sell at first world prices
Pay Monaco tax rates
And from this side of the water free speech and free independent media appear intact. Will be wake up one morning to hear that Jon Stewart, Steve Colbert, all the staff of the NYT, MSNBC and The Atlantic have been arrested? It seems to me that this has gone from impossible to extremely unlikely in about a week.
I'm off to look at some LinkedIn profiles like the weirdo I am. Say hi to Stu for me.
On Abrdn: maybe this is an indication that our society has passed peak insanity. We can no longer afford luxury beliefs like that of the superfluity of interior vowels.
Good morning PB
Madness.
The Estonian defence ministry says "Estonia has provided significant military assistance to Ukraine. By early 2024, this aid was worth around €500 million, which is more than 1.4% of Estonia's GDP"
So considerably more than 0.25%
Tbf you are a bit of a translucently skinned weirdo.
If you want unambiguous success, then there's the successful invasion of Panama (1989).
But what I did not expect was for him to make a significant reversal in foreign policy. Not just trying to extort good deals (for the US) out of countries, but actively shafting the countries that have been America's allies for many decades.
And most Americans appear to be just shrugging as the country they claim to love slides, at best, into dictatorship.
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (2-3 Mar)
Lab: 26% (+2 from 23-24 Feb)
Ref: 25% (=)
Con: 21% (-1)
Lib Dem: 14% (-2)
Green: 9% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
There was a cartoon (xkcd? SMBC?) that I recall in which an engineer, finding his water supply was included in his rent, rigged up a water wheel to generate electricity from it. But I think most people wouldn't do this. I suppose the reason why most places aren't metered is that at the very low price at which water is supplied, it is quite price inelastic, and therefore it saves the water companies less than the cost of installation. What's the price of a bath in a metered property? 20p?
Perhaps someone has a shop under the name "The three e's"?
A week ago, without offering a security guarantee Donald Trump was asking for $500 billion from Ukraine for nothing.
Now, even with a security guarantee Donald Trump would be asking for $500 billion from Ukraine for nothing.
It's simply extortion, sign the deal or die.
China is less of a threat to Europe than the US right now, and the way the US is behaving they are getting ever closer to the level of Russia.
I know Starmer's not going to come out and say it, and he'll keep banging on about not choosing between Europe and the US, but inside government they must now be scrambling to deal with the real threat of the US as a direct adversary.
NATO, the Special Relationship, the Transatlantic Alliance, Five Eyes, all completely trashed in 43 days.
It feels odd to have done four triathlons, and so many thousands of miles of running, and never to have done an 'official' running race.
I've done f-all preparation aside from my usual exercise, and my taper's been non-existent. I'll just be happy if I get around, even DFL
(Dead F***ing Last...)
Vance has been insulting British troops too.