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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even with poll leads there are still two massive hurdles for the Tories: LAB’s inherent electoral advantage and LD stickiness
The “boundaries” has become a misleading shorthand to describe the challenge the Tories face with the way the general election electoral system operates under first past the post.
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Fools to want someone the voter seems to actually still like (comparatively) in the second most high profile spot for a GE campaign? It's certainly 'bold' thinking that wee Danny's lack of popularity would somehow cancel out Clegg's toxicity with the voters.
Not just the public in general though. Lest we forget when those lib dem members that are left are asked wee Danny is rated near the bottom along with Clegg while Vince has been at the top for years now. Hard to see how sidelining Cable and putting wee Danny front and centre would motivate the lib dem base.
Aside from that if Clegg really does want to do some serious differentiation posturing is there some reason why little Danny would keep "where the bodies are buried" a secret from Clegg? Wee Danny's differentiation on the economy would also have to start for it to be anything other than purely theoretical. Sure, he laughed at Grant Shapps and CCHQ's incompetence but who didn't apart from out of touch posh twerps?
As for claiming the credit for any recovery, how's that working out right now? Any bump for the lib dems after the budget even if such bumps tend to be temporary anyway?
The fact that so many PB tories seem very keen for wee Danny to be up against Osbrowne should speak for itself. With so many lib dem tory marginals in play I somehow don't think they have the best interest of the lib dems at heart.
In the end though it really doesn't matter who calamity Clegg picks since, if the lib dems take anywhere near the hammering the polls are pointing to, then another coalition is a complete pipe dream. The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance there is of a hung parliament.
I think the third person plural possessive pronoun is ‘theirs’ rather than ‘there’s’.
Which two?
Argyll & Bute SNP Gain 7/4 (Lab 2/1, LD 5/2)
East Dunbartonshire LAB Gain 1/2 (LD 6/4)
Edinburgh West LAB Gain 4/5 (LD 5/4)
Inverness LD Hold 1/2 (Lab 7/2)
West Aberdeenshire LD Hold 8/11 (Con 6/4)
I would love to see prices for:
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Baxter gives CON a 61% chance of a gain)
- Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross (Baxter has SNP as FAV)
- North East Fife (Baxter has LD as extremely narrow FAV, and it looks to be an ultra-marginal 3-way fight)
- Gordon (Baxter gives the SNP a 53% chance)
What instead we have is the 5th main vote driver, one that the Tories scream blue murder about when you raise it. The Tories are now a regional party. Very strong in English shires, very week in metropolitan and urban parts or England. And Wales. And Scotland. No amount of fiddling with boundaries can fix the lax of votes across the geographic GB. As their friends in the LibDems can explain.
In 2015, that feature is very unlikely to occur and could even reverse and the LDs poll at 15% or less - thus it is very probable that LD stickiness will diminish.
Blackrock's assessment was that those risks would be "mostly for Scotland, but also for the remaining UK".
The report comes as an academic's analysis strongly disputed the UK Treasury's rejection of a currency union post-Yes.
Blackrock, which is based in New York and manages trillions in financial assets, will be sending out its 12-page assessment to clients next week.
It said a currency union between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK "looks infeasible" and would "bring risks to both countries".
The asset managers believed the "best of the few choices" Scotland had would be to launch its own currency.
The company said oil and gas were critical to Scotland's finances but fiscal spending based on specific oil revenue projections was "uncertain and probably unwise".
It reported that banks and insurers would face pressure to move headquarters to a "stronger fiscal state with a more certain regulatory backdrop".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26705466
2) The reason people take a percentage from a poll and apply it to the nation as a whole (i.e. UNS) is because the majority of polls are national only: it is all that can realistically be done. Criticisms and discussions of UNS appear on here frequently, including threaders by Mike and others. It's an imperfect tool, but so is trying to apply subsamples to the same effect. There are other ways, and again there are frequent discussions of them.
3) The split isn't really a regional one: it's a town versus country one. As a mass generalisation for England, then Conservatives do well in country areas, and Labour well in towns. They're not traditionally 'regions'. Perhaps Labour should be asking themselves why they seem not to offer the hard workers in the countryside a good offer. In fact, do they care for them at all?
Deluded.
Are there any other LD-held seats where the CONS should probably be FAV but where the bookies have not yet published prices yet? I assume that Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (Michael Moore's seat) must be a candidate? Maybe even North East Fife?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/04/mapping-britain
It's true that there is a blue doughnut around London. But everywhere else it's about half-and-half, at best for the Tories.
So yes, it's fair to say that actually both parties are pretty well regionalised, with the obvious battleground being the Midlands.
Con: Paddy Power 1.4, Stan James 1.33, Ladbrokes 2.0
LD: Paddy Power 2.75, Stan James 3.0, Ladbrokes 1.73
This is rather odd, and gives an opportunity of an arb if anyone can get on with PP or Stan James (not me!).
I've just taken the Ladbrokes Evens on Con. Looks a snip to me.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26711709
I wonder what warranties the Coop group gave when the new shareholders came in last year?
Track is going down in the Dawlish breach:
http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg
These are short track panels, and the rails will be replaced later with longer lengths suitable for welding.
I guess their first priority is to get the trains running, and then to sort out he road behind it afterwards. If the freakishly high estimates for what the closure's costing the southwest are true, then that makes sense.
I think it is also the case that a lot of Labour supporters were willing to vote for the Lib Dems if they were in with a chance of keeping the tory out, which, let's face it, is the entire mission statement of much of their support.
You only have to go back to 2005 to get a much less "efficient" Labour vote. In 2015 they will almost certainly get more votes from those who no longer see a difference between yellow and blue. It won't win them any seats but it may well cause the Lib dems a few problems.
I don't dispute that Labour's vote will still be more efficient in 2015 but the gap will be much narrower. If anything I suspect that UNS will understate the seats the tories might win or lose rather than overstate it for this reason. Doesn't mean they don't need a bigger lead though.
So far as the Lib Dems are concerned in each set of local elections they have been losing a minimum of 1/3 of their seats. I think something similar will happen in the General election. I expect them to lose 15-20 seats. They will probably lose 6 in Scotland alone.
Even Blair in his 1997 landslide only got 43%.
The rest of the shares are held by investment institutions, led by a group of hedge funds.
The largest shareholder, after Co-op Bank, is the hedge fund Perry Capital.
How the shareholders will react to being asked for another £400m, so soon after they put in around £1bn, will be interesting to see."
I do not see the hedge funds being very patient with long term debtors who are not backed by tangible assets - the Labour Party may find itself under more pressure to repay its overdraft.
I daresay Labour have a contingency plan... perhaps they'll fight the next election as the Co-operative Party
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN that ARSE is producing a special post budget/10th PB Anniversary 2015 General Election Projection to be published on 25th March at 9:00am
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
..............................................................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
(cough) Edinburgh tram (/cough)
(cough) Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine (/cough)
What I found particularly interesting was this bit:
"As it happens, I think this reading is unfair on Ed. He wasn’t ignorant; he was just desperate. He knew instinctively that he had been aced by George Osborne – with a long, looping, high-kicking and unreturnable serve. The Tory firework had gone straight through the Labour catflap. The hand grenade had tinkle-plinked down the periscope and was bouncing about in the cabin of the Labour submarine and – KABOOM! – their position was destroyed."
The stories of the row between Osborne and Boris may well have been true but this is a clear message that Boris is supporting Osborne and is fully onboard with the tory leadership. In my view it increases the chances of Boris standing at the next election.
First, belated birthday greetings to PB and many thanks to Mike, Robert and the various Moderators and contributors for keeping this site going under what must occasionally be trying circumstances.
I'm one of the "old guard" - I forget exactly when I joined but I was definitely here in 2004 as I remember debating (when one could a bit more) with Sean Fear and Marcus Wood about the upcoming General Election.
10 years on and it's good to see a few familiar faces still here - one of my personal highlights was the BBQ on the terrace of the National Liberal Club - would that we could do such events now as Dirty Dick's never has the same ambience.
Anyhow, to be more on-topic, I have long said the 2014 London Borough elections are the critical barometer for the 2015 GE - boroughs like Kingston and Sutton for example will tell you how entrenched LD organisations are faring against the Conservatives while places like Barnet, Bexley, Croydon and Havering will tell you how the Con vs. Labour fight is going.
The line, which was the first to be built in Scotland after devolution, cost more than twice its budget, and was finished two and a half years late in 2008.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
As for "LibDem" invincibility, it is just nonsense. 2010 was the first election since 1992 where we saw LibDems defending seats they had won in large numbers from the Tories. There was a net gain by the Tories and no fewer than 20 seats, almost 40% of all LibDem seats hung on with majorities of less than 5%. Next year will be the test and given the high percentage of LibDem MPs retiring, especially those who have won former Tory seats since 1987 in Scotland and 1992 in England, I wouldn't rate their chances as being any better than anyone else.
The LibDems who will be hardest for the Tories to shift are the ones with whom they have worked most closely in government.
- call in the debts and screw up Labour's cash ( forcing the TUs to bail them out )
- sit tight knowing you have potentially the next HMG by the short and curlies and then call in your pound of flesh - " Ed about all this bank legislation, listen carefully ,here's our view ...."
Solihull and ?
The Glasgow Commonwealth Games infrastructure has been completed ahead of timetable and on budget.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
The SNP can rightly blame the previous administrations for these messes. However I fear the Waverley Line rebuild and the second Forth crossing are going to go the same way, and they are firmly in the SNP government's powers. However at least on the latter it looks as though the contractors may get the excess bill ...
SCOTTISH Government projections on oil and gas revenues are “skewed in an optimistic manner”, according to academics from Glasgow University’s Centre for Public Policy for Regions.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-oil-projections-skewed-1-3351261
http://www.insidethegames.biz/commonwealth-games/2014/9672-glasgow-2014-budget-now-over-half-a-billion-pounds
A couple of other good quotes from Boris:
"It is the first time I have heard a Lib Dem say anything remotely liberal, in the sense of free market (I await the day when they stick up for democracy, in the face of the intrusion from Brussels, but you never know)."
"In The Observer, Will Hutton prophesied that “This pensions 'freedom’ will be a long-term social disaster.” He argued that pension contributions were sheltered from tax, and that therefore, “We should care if the resulting money is spent on a Lamborghini: a chunk of the car belongs by right to taxpayers.”
Isn’t that amazing? By that ridiculous logic a chunk of anything that we buy with our existing pensions “belongs by right to taxpayers”. Is he seriously saying that taxpayers have a right to go around telling people how to spend their pensions? It isn’t taxpayers’ money, you Lefty bossyboots control freak: it’s the money that the pensioners have saved up themselves – out of their taxed income!"
Mr. Financier, isn't Hutton the 'economist' who managed to run a hundred year old economics thinktank into bankruptcy?
The movements of 2010 Lib Dem voters in Conservative/Labour marginals are important. Certainly the limited evidence that we have suggests that they appear to be breaking disproportionately towards Labour at present. But if the Conservatives get a lead in the national opinion polls, we will then need to ascertain where that lead is coming from. While it is logically possible that lead is coming from voters exclusively in safe seats or hopeless seats, it defies all notions of common sense.
Since such a lead has not yet been established (and still may never happen), we obviously cannot do this ascertaining. But we can in advance be fairly sure that the differential swing to Labour shown in the previous marginals polling will be muffled if it does happen.
Oh, and no discussion of this subject should omit the mention of first-time incumbency bonus. Most of the Conservative/Labour marginals are held by first-time incumbents. Such incumbents usually do disproportionately well. In these seats, the incumbents all wear blue rosettes.
All of which leads me to believe that the Conservatives will not face quite such a hard task in these seats as our host suggests in the thread header.
It appears Conservative ministers are having a full fat fight over the merits of British cheese.
One wonders who's going to be the big cheese in that spat.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/10717791/Tory-row-over-cheese.html
However if you are into economic theory, the piece about Hyman Minsky and his writings is worth a read.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26680993
Chortle ....
They solved the short dual carriageway problems on the old A50 (before the Etwall to Uttoxeter stretch was bypassed) by closing off the shortest sections, converting them to single carriageways. Some were only a couple of hundred yards long.
I love the A9, and some of the places it passes are truly beautiful. It gets better further north than Inverness IMHO. It's always fun seeing lorries trying to get past Berriedale!
If only Britain had joined the euro
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jun/13/if-britain-had-joined-the-euro
Better than Ed Miliband's, obviously, or Ed Balls, but still not great.
I live in Leith and the tram was supposed to pass the end of our street. We were willing to put up with the years (literally) of disruption and roadworks as we could see some point to it. Then the Granton loop/spur was abandoned due to cost overruns taking away the one part of the proposed route that was not adequately covered by the excellent bus services that this city boasts. The route that was left was basically the number 22 bus (which runs every 5 mins and costs £1.50 to go anywhere).
Then the cost overrun continued and they were going to scrap it completely, but realised that having completely fouled up the city for the best part of half a decade they had better end up with something to show for it. The new proposal was to end at Haymarket in the west end of the city, making it the most useless tram line ever. The saved some (not a lot) of face by extending that to the east end of Princes St/Queen St, so it is now a single line from the centre of town to the airport.
Meanwhile, the roads in the centre of town and down Leith Walk to Ocean Terminal are an absolute disgrace. Roadworks after roadworks after roadworks have left it potholed to buggery.
To say I'm angry about the whole sorry affair is an understatement.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-26689705
The corollary of the existence of this advantage for Labour in the status quo is that the Tories could pick up seats even on a zero swing in the national vote shares, if they can reduce the extent of this advantage.
One might imagine, for example, that some Liberal Democrat voters in Lab-Con marginals might become more inclined to vote tactically Tory if they are reminded that the Coalition with the Tories enabled them to see some of their manifesto delivered (eg the increase in the personal tax allowance, the pupil premium, etc) and also to junk some of the more negative aspects of the previous Labour government (eg ID cards, Ed Balls as a cabinet minister, etc).
I'm reminded of the polling from the 1980s that had a majority of Alliance voters expressing a preference for a Conservative government over a Labour one, contrary to the simplistic assumption by Thatcher-haters that the left-wing vote was split.
I agree that the Ashcroft polling suggests that the Tories have not made much progress on this - though do we have a comparable baseline from the previous Parliament to compare to? - but the potential is there. These sorts of electoral patterns are not written in stone. They can be changed.
Also stupid given that, almost without exception, people drive to get here. And the roads have remained fine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edinburgh_Airport_Rail_Link
@bbclaurak: John Mills, biggest individual Labour donor, calling for pound to be devalued...
A good dose of inflation should help the "cost of living crisis"......
I was hoping to do my bit for Cornish tourism by taking a trip down there. Sadly events have got in the way ...
1) The vast majority of people don't prepare for their retirement anywhere near a level like they should
2) How difficult it is to actually do that.
In fact also 3..how hugely unfair/generous some final salary schemes are compared with what you provide yourself.
Of course some people are able to understand that their own personal experiences aren't necessary typical or the most relevant to the country generally.
But the PPE crowd certainly exude a smugness and arrogance that the interests of your Nuneaton factory workers are beneath them.
This applies to the Labour branch of the PPE crowd as well as the Conservative branch and helps explain the failure of the Eds to connect and their response to the Budget last week.
The conservatives are targeting those seats and a lot of money and resource is going into them at present.
Sutton and Cheam is a 40/40 target seat and is having money thrown at it as well as bimonthly visits from Cabinet ministers.
Burstow is looking very vulnerable as to a lesser extent is Tom Brake in Carshalton and Wallington.
The local hospital being under threat is not helping Brake and Burstows cause especially after what Burstow did with clause 119 2 weeks ago by agreeing to act for 38 degrees and act on behalf of 155000 people and then reneging at the last minute.
The other issue in Sutton is that at the forthcoming local elections 22 out of 43 sitting Lib Dem cllrs are standing down leaving their activist base depleted and the incumbency affect watered down.
I am not saying the Lib Dems will lose the council but they are bound to lose quite a few wards..
Cmon Shadsy price up those 2 constituencies.
"Overall GB votes in seats where 3rd %" and the comment
"Firstly, from the GE2010 outcome we see that a much higher proportion of the blue vote gets wasted in seats where the party is third."
should read
"Average GB votes % in seats won by 3rd parties" and the comment
"Firstly, from the GE2010 outcome we see that a much higher proportion of the blue vote gets wasted in seats won by third parties."
It's a double whammy actually. The Tories waste more votes losing to third parties, and most third party seats won are former Tory seats...
Network Rail, which did not build the 13-mile line, said the first shutdown would be in the week starting on 23 February, and affect only coal trains.
Public spending watchdogs criticised the management of the project, which was run by Clackmannanshire Council and the now-scrapped City of Edinburgh Council transport body Tie, before being taken over by the Scottish Government’s Transport Scotland agency in 2007. An Audit Scotland report in 2008 blamed “weak project governance” and “misaligned roles and responsibilities".
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
So then it shouldn't matter to you whether they choose to spend £25,000 upfront, stick it in an annuity for £1,000 additional income a year or spend it on a few luxuries over a period of years.
Car & Wal
1/3 LD
2/1 CON
Sutton & Cheam
8/11 CON
Evs LD
In he next few days you'll find prices for every current Lib Dem held seat appearing on our site.
I would also point out that just because a Councillor is standing down doesn't mean he or she isn't going to be politically active supporting new candidates.
On a tangent, I've received an In Touch from the Conservatives here in East Ham or to be precise from the Conservative Mayoral Candidate for Newham (it's a Borough wide newsletter as distinct from the Labour leaflets which are Ward specific). I think the only question on this is whether Sir Robin Wales will get over 50% of the vote.