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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    Micellaneous replies to other posts:

    Local voting: what is evident in canvassing is a hardening of the Tory vote - former Tories were previously a bit depressed and uncertain, now they think the government is good, and UKIP support is definitely off the boil. But I'm not finding any weakening at all in the Lib->Lab switchers: I'm more confident of them than of traditional yeah-probably-I-usually-do Labour voters. Conversely, friends in LibDem marginals tell me that Labour willingness to vote LibDem is rising in line with differentiation, though still tentative - a lot depends on how Clegg pitches the campaign.

    First-term incumbency bonuses: Ashcroft didn't find one, and it's not something we're encountering. In the early post-2015 period the new MPs often seemed to concentrate on building their Westminster profiles and developed up a reputation for lack of interest in local matters, which has proved hard to rub off. Some argue that MPs SHOULD be mainly interested in national matters, but voters don't always see it that way.

    Local activism: it's very patchy around the country and in weak seats the third party often depends entirely on about three people. A friend hoping to get into politics is going for two hopeless seats in the south - apparently one is a battle royal with hundreds of strongly-engaged Labour members arguing fiercely over the selection and a local tradition of fighting elections hard, while the other is sleepy and hardly puts out leaflets at all. We are third in both, which shows you the limits of local activism, doesn't it?

    Midlands: are not homogenous. The West Mids have lots of activists from both big parties. The Tories struggle in the suburban East Mids. I'm in the 8th most marginal Conservative seat, and Tory doorstep activity appears to be zero (a steady flow of glossy letters from Cameron posted from Birmingham though). There is a reservoir of Labour activists in Nottingham, Derby and Leicester (I had 20 out yesterday) that is not matched by Tories coming in from rural areas.

    Trams: a big issue in west and south Nottingham. Arguably my margin of defeat in 2010 was entirely due to the tram, which I support - the Tories said they'd "try" to cancel the project, and gained scores of straight Lab->Con switches that I'm aware of along the route (as soon as they won, they approved the project, grrr :-) ). It's now nearly finished and the MP is now in favour of it. Experience of the previous line suggests that people will like it when it's there, though right now the disruption is at its worst and many people absolutely hate it.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    If the average pension pot is £25,000 as Boris says, there is absolutely no point in those who have that amount putting the money into an annuity, is there? They might as well spend it all and live off the state.

    Well, you're not wrong. But it just goes to show two things
    1) The vast majority of people don't prepare for their retirement anywhere near a level like they should
    2) How difficult it is to actually do that.

    In fact also 3..how hugely unfair/generous some final salary schemes are compared with what you provide yourself.

    People in final salary schemes also make pretty sizeable contributions to their pensions and may well have taken the relevant jobs - which pay less than they might have got elsewhere - because of them.

    Is that really true anymore? It used to be in the past that (very broadly) public sector jobs were paid less than the equivalent private sector jobs, but had better terms and conditions, including pensions. but over the last 10-15 years, has that remained the case?

    I don't know. It's hard to make direct comparisons I would have thought, but any final salary pension scheme is going to offer most people the best value. I don't blame anyone going into the public sector for seeing the pension as a significant factor. However, they do end up paying a decent portion of their salary towards their final pot.

    If you look at how much teachers pay in each month, for example, you'll see that it is a pretty hefty amount:

    https://www.teacherspensions.co.uk/members/the-scheme/active-teacher/how-much-do-i-pay-in.aspx

    I wonder how many private sector workers on an average wage (£26,000) pay 8.3% of their salary each month into a pension. If they did, the average pot size would be a lot higher than £25,000.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    McLaren down to 9 or so on Betfair (were as long as 12). Hard to say if that's value right now. A little lower and it's hedgeable.

    Williams at 30 is too long. Well worth a little on them. Red Bull and Ferrari are too short.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    I wish I could share Mikes optimism about the "stickiness" of LD held seats.In 2010 the swings were v 2005, Lab to Lib 3.7% ,Lib to Con 1.5%.you would have expected a small net gain in seats with gains from Labour and small losses to the Cons.This failure was largely because the LD's failed to win seats from Labour and yes holding onto more seats v the Cons than expected.

    But the 2015 v election promises to be rather different.There will be swings against the Lib Dems to all other parties,including the SNP and UKIP. The size of these adverse swings will be
    much larger than 2010 and thus the special factors in Lib/Lab and Lib /Con seats will have to be even greater than 2010.

    And here is the rub there are special factors which actually go the other way.One is retiring MP's whose personal vote evaporates for the new Lib Dem candidate.I don't know what the latest figure is but I heard a figure of at least 5 being mentioned.The second factor is a likely tuition fees backlash in University dominated seats.Whilst Nick Clegg has a big enough majority to offset this, but seats like Norwich S,Cambridge,Bristol W,Manchester Withington, and Leeds NW are more vulnerable than UNS suggests.
    These two factors could lead to around 10 more seat losses than expected on UNS.

    The strategy of total focus of resources on LD held seat is clearly correct.The evidence that electors in LD seats rate them more strongly than do Tory and Labour constituents in their seats is very helpful.

    But unless there is an improvement in LD national vote share in the next year the risk is that the number of seats won will be around 20.That could result in very tricky coalition in the event of hung parliament ,with dare I say it,with the SNP (assuming they have not departed from the union holing the balance of power.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    malcolmg said:

    Way off-topic:

    Track is going down in the Dawlish breach:
    http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg

    I get the sense we are getting (relatively) good at major infrastructure - starting from T5, then the Olympics (which I was convinced we'd screw up) and now CrossRail.......who knows how HS2 will turn out......
    Maybe in England. Scotland's not doing so well.
    (cough) Edinburgh tram (/cough)
    (cough) Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine (/cough)
    The Olympics in London was a momumental cock-up in terms of budgetry constraint. It cost, remind me, 3 times the original estimate!

    The Glasgow Commonwealth Games infrastructure has been completed ahead of timetable and on budget.
    Josias is not too bright with his bias. If only Scotland had the unlimited cash to throw at infrastructure projects that they have in London and the south.
    My bias? If you look below, you will see how I blamed both of the above on previous Scottish governments, not the current SNP one.
    The SNP can rightly blame the previous administrations for these messes.
    But that would involve you looking beyond your own biases ...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Way off-topic:

    Track is going down in the Dawlish breach:
    http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg

    I get the sense we are getting (relatively) good at major infrastructure - starting from T5, then the Olympics (which I was convinced we'd screw up) and now CrossRail.......who knows how HS2 will turn out......
    Maybe in England. Scotland's not doing so well.
    (cough) Edinburgh tram (/cough)
    (cough) Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine (/cough)
    The Edinburgh tram fiasco was one I was well aware of, the train line not:

    The line, which was the first to be built in Scotland after devolution, cost more than twice its budget, and was finished two and a half years late in 2008.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
    Both were labour pet projects , what else would you expect. Their planning involves sticking a digit up an orifice and guessing a small number and an early date.
    And the Railtrack disaster. I don't know if those affected the Alloa line project?

    Ah! Blame shifting?

    Network Rail, which did not build the 13-mile line, said the first shutdown would be in the week starting on 23 February, and affect only coal trains.

    Public spending watchdogs criticised the management of the project, which was run by Clackmannanshire Council and the now-scrapped City of Edinburgh Council transport body Tie, before being taken over by the Scottish Government’s Transport Scotland agency in 2007. An Audit Scotland report in 2008 blamed “weak project governance” and “misaligned roles and responsibilities".


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
    No - in part, serious questions given the problems caused by the Hatfield derailment for Railtrack and the ensuing rail project management. And, in part, we wouldn't want anyone suggesting that the Alloa line problems were directly to do with devolution and the Scottish parliament, would we?
    Any tenuous link or lie will do as long as it ties it to the Scottish Government
  • I'm approaching £4k down .... Just as well I'm not a stockbroker or a day-trader!

    I'm still confident ... ish.... here's more back-up and from a trading board I'm on:

    Thoughts of another IFA from his tweets which are identical to mine and hence why I've bought in to both PA and JRG - I expect Fixed Term annuities with goal of running down to £0 to become more common however as part of this:

    Martin Bamford‏@martinbamford·27m
    Unless @TheFCA scrap COBS, FOS change their mantra & our PI insurers no longer care, flexible drawdown won't become mainstream option.

    Martin Bamford‏@martinbamford·28m
    Most providers won't accept flexible drawdown without an adviser, most advisers won't recommend it. Annuities will still be #1 option.

    Martin Bamford‏@martinbamford·29m
    It's just flexible drawdown with no Minimum Income Requirement. Suitability rules aren't changing, so it will be recommended to very few.

    Martin Bamford‏@martinbamford·30m
    After a weekend considering the Budget pension reforms (& other things!) I've reached the conclusion nothing is really changing...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    timmo said:

    Mike keeps conveniently forgetting that the bookies havent priced up most of the LD/Tory marginals in South West London for example.
    The conservatives are targeting those seats and a lot of money and resource is going into them at present.
    Sutton and Cheam is a 40/40 target seat and is having money thrown at it as well as bimonthly visits from Cabinet ministers.
    Burstow is looking very vulnerable as to a lesser extent is Tom Brake in Carshalton and Wallington.
    The local hospital being under threat is not helping Brake and Burstows cause especially after what Burstow did with clause 119 2 weeks ago by agreeing to act for 38 degrees and act on behalf of 155000 people and then reneging at the last minute.
    The other issue in Sutton is that at the forthcoming local elections 22 out of 43 sitting Lib Dem cllrs are standing down leaving their activist base depleted and the incumbency affect watered down.
    I am not saying the Lib Dems will lose the council but they are bound to lose quite a few wards..
    Cmon Shadsy price up those 2 constituencies.

    Ah these are the 2 seats conservatives were saying they were going to gain in 2010 along with the local council and some of us can remember Rik Willis posting on here how he could find no Lib Dem supporters at all in Sutton and Cheam in the 2005 GE and he was going to win the seat then .
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Charles said:

    If the average pension pot is £25,000 as Boris says, there is absolutely no point in those who have that amount putting the money into an annuity, is there? They might as well spend it all and live off the state.

    SO, what you are forgetting is whether they spend the money or not, they will get exactly the same pension from the state. It's a universal non-contributory pension.

    So then it shouldn't matter to you whether they choose to spend £25,000 upfront, stick it in an annuity for £1,000 additional income a year or spend it on a few luxuries over a period of years.

    I agree. If it were me, I'd take all the money out and do something with it immediately rather than add £90 a month to my state pension.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Way off-topic:

    Track is going down in the Dawlish breach:
    http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg

    I get the sense we are getting (relatively) good at major infrastructure - starting from T5, then the Olympics (which I was convinced we'd screw up) and now CrossRail.......who knows how HS2 will turn out......
    Maybe in England. Scotland's not doing so well.
    (cough) Edinburgh tram (/cough)
    (cough) Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine (/cough)
    The Edinburgh tram fiasco was one I was well aware of, the train line not:

    The line, which was the first to be built in Scotland after devolution, cost more than twice its budget, and was finished two and a half years late in 2008.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
    Both were labour pet projects , what else would you expect. Their planning involves sticking a digit up an orifice and guessing a small number and an early date.
    And the Railtrack disaster. I don't know if those affected the Alloa line project?

    Ah! Blame shifting?

    Network Rail, which did not build the 13-mile line, said the first shutdown would be in the week starting on 23 February, and affect only coal trains.

    Public spending watchdogs criticised the management of the project, which was run by Clackmannanshire Council and the now-scrapped City of Edinburgh Council transport body Tie, before being taken over by the Scottish Government’s Transport Scotland agency in 2007. An Audit Scotland report in 2008 blamed “weak project governance” and “misaligned roles and responsibilities".


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
    . And, in part, we wouldn't want anyone suggesting that the Alloa line problems were directly to do with devolution and the Scottish parliament, would we?
    Or that it was "all Westminster's fault"?

    You edited my reply but not the earlier ones, to give a rather different emphasis to it.

    As for Westminster, why on earth would I? TIE was the agency controlled by Labour and the LDs on the Edinburgh council, which also managed the Edinburgh trams, if that is the right verb to use.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    shadsy said:

    timmo said:

    Mike keeps conveniently forgetting that the bookies havent priced up most of the LD/Tory marginals in South West London for example.
    The conservatives are targeting those seats and a lot of money and resource is going into them at present.
    Sutton and Cheam is a 40/40 target seat and is having money thrown at it as well as bimonthly visits from Cabinet ministers.
    Burstow is looking very vulnerable as to a lesser extent is Tom Brake in Carshalton and Wallington.
    The local hospital being under threat is not helping Brake and Burstows cause especially after what Burstow did with clause 119 2 weeks ago by agreeing to act for 38 degrees and act on behalf of 155000 people and then reneging at the last minute.
    The other issue in Sutton is that at the forthcoming local elections 22 out of 43 sitting Lib Dem cllrs are standing down leaving their activist base depleted and the incumbency affect watered down.
    I am not saying the Lib Dems will lose the council but they are bound to lose quite a few wards..
    Cmon Shadsy price up those 2 constituencies.

    We have already.
    Car & Wal
    1/3 LD
    2/1 CON

    Sutton & Cheam
    8/11 CON
    Evs LD

    In he next few days you'll find prices for every current Lib Dem held seat appearing on our site.

    Did you cut UKIP in Thurrock from 16s to 10s on trade or change of opinion? I think Tim Akers has a great chance there, they should be 2nd fav IMO

    When will we see prices for Romford, Upminster and Hornchurch & Dagenham & Rainham?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014


    If you look at how much teachers pay in each month, for example, you'll see that it is a pretty hefty amount:

    https://www.teacherspensions.co.uk/members/the-scheme/active-teacher/how-much-do-i-pay-in.aspx

    I wonder how many private sector workers on an average wage (£26,000) pay 8.3% of their salary each month into a pension. If they did, the average pot size would be a lot higher than £25,000.

    You've asked the wrong question.

    The correct question is: what size of inflation-linked pension could someone contributing 8.3% of their salary into a defined-contribution scheme get?

    The answer will obviously depend on investment returns, annuity rates at retirement, and inflation, but the bottom line is: one hell of a lot less than the teacher, whose gets an inflation-linked pension which is not only very substantially higher, but is completely free of all investment, interest-rate, and inflation risk, thanks to the taxpayer guarantee.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Kite flying?

    @bbclaurak: John Mills, biggest individual Labour donor, calling for pound to be devalued...

    A good dose of inflation should help the "cost of living crisis"......

    I assume the sarky comment about inflation was your's not John's? He's a very sensible guy.
    Then perhaps you can explain why devaluation and increased inflation are "sensible ideas"?
    Can you post a link to his comments rather than a tweet?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668


    If you look at how much teachers pay in each month, for example, you'll see that it is a pretty hefty amount:

    https://www.teacherspensions.co.uk/members/the-scheme/active-teacher/how-much-do-i-pay-in.aspx

    I wonder how many private sector workers on an average wage (£26,000) pay 8.3% of their salary each month into a pension. If they did, the average pot size would be a lot higher than £25,000.

    You've asked the wrong question.

    The correct question is: what size of inflation-linked pension could someone contributing 8.3% of their salary into a defined-contribution scheme get?

    The answer will obviously depend on investment returns, annuity rates at retirement, and inflation, but the bottom line is: one hell of a lot less than the teacher, whose gets an inflation-linked pension which is not only very substantially higher, but is completely free of all investment, interest-rate, and inflation risk, thanks to the taxpayer guarantee.

    That's not the wrong question, it's another one - and an important one, of course. But teachers are not to blame for the fact that the state feels it is in its interests to offer them a final salary pension scheme and it is not "unfair" that they get one, which is the original proposition I was arguing against. Everyone with the right qualifications has the opportunity to choose to become a teacher, or any other kind of public sector worker. If they choose not to take it, or if they do not make it through the selection process, that is no-one else's fault but their own.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Way off-topic:

    Track is going down in the Dawlish breach:
    http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg

    I get the sense we are getting (relatively) good at major infrastructure - starting from T5, then the Olympics (which I was convinced we'd screw up) and now CrossRail.......who knows how HS2 will turn out......
    Maybe in England. Scotland's not doing so well.
    (cough) Edinburgh tram (/cough)
    (cough) Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine (/cough)
    The Edinburgh tram fiasco was one I was well aware of, the train line not:

    The line, which was the first to be built in Scotland after devolution, cost more than twice its budget, and was finished two and a half years late in 2008.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
    Both were labour pet projects , what else would you expect. Their planning involves sticking a digit up an orifice and guessing a small number and an early date.
    There were also changes to the devolution settlement with a transfer of the railway side later than the Scottish Parliament was set up, was it not? And the Railtrack disaster. I don't know if those affected the Alloa line project?

    It has also been very successful with over 3 times the expected usage. You just wonder what we could do with the £16B spent just on crossrail project for London. We might have a motorway between our two major cities and a dual carriageway to the highlands. Still once we pay for HS2 and manage to get to Manchester we will get to London a bit quicker.
    The SAK line has been very successful in terms of ticketing, yes. It also bodes well for other reopenings, as have the foresighted reopening in South Wales of the Ebbw Valley Railway.

    In civil engineering and monetary terms it has been a disaster, see links posted before.
  • Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited March 2014
    So the lead with Populus, YouGov and Survation is 1%.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pop gap closing due entirely to Labour slump.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Labour are ... fecked
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    That's not the wrong question, it's another one - and an important one, of course. But teachers are not to blame for the fact that the state feels it is in its interests to offer them a final salary pension scheme and it is not "unfair" that they get one, which is the original proposition I was arguing against. Everyone with the right qualifications has the opportunity to choose to become a teacher, or any other kind of public sector worker. If they choose not to take it, or if they do not make it through the selection process, that is no-one else's fault but their own.

    Sure, but, incredibly, teachers and other public-sector workers actually whinge about their remuneration. They are exceptionally well paid, if you compare like with like (ie including pensions).

    There is another aspect, which is a straightforward injustice (sadly made worse by the current government), relating to well-paid workers. Defined-contribution pension pots are limited to £1.25m, which sounds a massive amount until you try to buy an inflation-linked annuity with it. Well-paid defined-benefit workers are theoretically subject to the same limit, but the formula used to calculate the notional value of their 'pot' is just 20 times the starting annual pension entitlement - ludicrously generous compared with rates on inflation-linked annuities.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    RodCrosby said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Labour are ... fecked
    far too much overconfidence from the left .. not fecked yet...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    If the Tories can tap into that UKIP slice of votes, then there's a chance for them

    Labour should be doing better, it's as simple as that. For the tories to be only 1 pt behind when it's clearly difficult times economically, is amazing..
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    Memo to YouGov: (checks betting slip) There's only a week left in Q1, so if you could see your way to publishing a poll with a Labour lead of zero in the next few days, I'd be most obliged.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Lab maj of 2 on UNS...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341


    If you look at how much teachers pay in each month, for example, you'll see that it is a pretty hefty amount:

    https://www.teacherspensions.co.uk/members/the-scheme/active-teacher/how-much-do-i-pay-in.aspx

    I wonder how many private sector workers on an average wage (£26,000) pay 8.3% of their salary each month into a pension. If they did, the average pot size would be a lot higher than £25,000.

    You've asked the wrong question.

    The correct question is: what size of inflation-linked pension could someone contributing 8.3% of their salary into a defined-contribution scheme get?

    The answer will obviously depend on investment returns, annuity rates at retirement, and inflation, but the bottom line is: one hell of a lot less than the teacher, whose gets an inflation-linked pension which is not only very substantially higher, but is completely free of all investment, interest-rate, and inflation risk, thanks to the taxpayer guarantee.

    That's not the wrong question, it's another one - and an important one, of course. But teachers are not to blame for the fact that the state feels it is in its interests to offer them a final salary pension scheme and it is not "unfair" that they get one, which is the original proposition I was arguing against. Everyone with the right qualifications has the opportunity to choose to become a teacher, or any other kind of public sector worker. If they choose not to take it, or if they do not make it through the selection process, that is no-one else's fault but their own.

    Relating to this and earlier discussion - the civil service pension did have fairly low deductions for pensions, but that was because the salary was explicitly reduced relative to otherwise comparable private sector salaries as part of the wage setting process (if the pension was deemed worth x percent, then x percent was taken off the salary, etc.). This was definitely the situation into the early 1990s.

    So in that sense the civil servant paid much more than the overt percentage into the pension, and also it was up front part of the bargain between employer and employee. (Part or all of what was overtly paid was, I seem to recall, for a spouse's pension but if one retired or died unmarried the contribs were refunded. And one could buy added years, and so on. But those were addons.).

    Of course all this broke down in the 1990s onwards and the advent of new schemes replacing the old ones. The minimum contribs now are, I believe, much higher than they were, more like the teachers' scheme cited.

  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    4/6 Liberal Democrats
    11/10 Conservatives

    Redcar
    4/6 Labour
    11/10 Liberal Democrats

    Hornsey & Wood Green
    4/7 Labour
    5/4 Liberal Democrats
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Scotland: SNP 40%, Lab 34%, Con 16%, LD 6%, UKIP 2%
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    RodCrosby said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Lab maj of 2 on UNS...
    That'll make the IndyRef polls fun.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RodCrosby said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Labour are ... fecked
    Cue post from SO on how important the 35 threshold is and how he's not worried because Labour's vote is rock solid...
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    shadsy said:

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    4/6 Liberal Democrats
    11/10 Conservatives

    Redcar
    4/6 Labour
    11/10 Liberal Democrats

    Hornsey & Wood Green
    4/7 Labour
    5/4 Liberal Democrats

    Thanks Shadsy. I see that you are not a great believer in this long-heralded Scottish Tory surge. Quelle surprise.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Kite flying?

    @bbclaurak: John Mills, biggest individual Labour donor, calling for pound to be devalued...

    A good dose of inflation should help the "cost of living crisis"......

    I assume the sarky comment about inflation was your's not John's? He's a very sensible guy.
    Then perhaps you can explain why devaluation and increased inflation are "sensible ideas"?
    Can you post a link to his comments rather than a tweet?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/10716848/Devalue-pound-to-boost-economy-says-JML-founder.html

    I think he's wrong - 'devaluation to boost manufacturing', rather than 'fixing productivity' - simply delays problems, then compounds them.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Charles said:


    RodCrosby said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Labour are ... fecked
    Cue post from SO on how important the 35 threshold is and how he's not worried because Labour's vote is rock solid...
    The ground game !!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Still not too excited by the polls. The narrowing of the gap appears genuine, but it'll be a few days or weeks before we can say it's persistent.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    How many outliers is that now?

    Joking apart, I suspect YouGov will have Labour back on +3-4........if not, this may be more of a trend than a blip.....and the YouGov internals yesterday were pretty good for Con & dire for the two Eds......

  • Still not too excited by the polls. The narrowing of the gap appears genuine, but it'll be a few days or weeks before we can say it's persistent.

    The frustrating thing for me is that the ICM/Guardian and Ipsos-Mori phone polls won't be out for another 2/3 weeks time.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Betfair

    Most seats : Lab 1.77 , Con 2.3
    OM : Lab 2.62, NOM 2.52

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TGOHF said:

    Charles said:


    RodCrosby said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Labour are ... fecked
    Cue post from SO on how important the 35 threshold is and how he's not worried because Labour's vote is rock solid...
    The ground game !!
    Nah, that's IOS.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Way off-topic:

    Track is going down in the Dawlish breach:
    http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg

    I get the sense we are getting (relatively) good at major infrastructure - starting from T5, then the Olympics (which I was convinced we'd screw up) and now CrossRail.......who knows how HS2 will turn out......
    Maybe in England. Scotland's not doing so well.
    (cough) Edinburgh tram (/cough)
    (cough) Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine (/cough)
    The Edinburgh tram fiasco was one I was well aware of, the train line not:

    The line, which was the first to be built in Scotland after devolution, cost more than twice its budget, and was finished two and a half years late in 2008.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
    Both were labour pet projects , what else would you expect. Their planning involves sticking a digit up an orifice and guessing a small number and an early date.
    And the Railtrack disaster. I don't know if those affected the Alloa line project?

    Ah! Blame shifting?

    Network Rail, which did not build the 13-mile line, said the first shutdown would be in the week starting on 23 February, and affect only coal trains.

    Public spending watchdogs criticised the management of the project, which was run by Clackmannanshire Council and the now-scrapped City of Edinburgh Council transport body Tie, before being taken over by the Scottish Government’s Transport Scotland agency in 2007. An Audit Scotland report in 2008 blamed “weak project governance” and “misaligned roles and responsibilities".


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/years-of-delays-on-stirling-alloa-kincardine-line-1-3274468
    . And, in part, we wouldn't want anyone suggesting that the Alloa line problems were directly to do with devolution and the Scottish parliament, would we?
    Or that it was "all Westminster's fault"?

    As for Westminster, why on earth would I? TIE was the agency controlled by Labour and the LDs on the Edinburgh council, which also managed the Edinburgh trams, if that is the right verb to use.
    Some posters see fault and blame only materialising south of the border......

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    @Richard Nabavi - "Sure, but, incredibly, teachers and other public-sector workers actually whinge about their remuneration. They are exceptionally well paid, if you compare like with like (ie including pensions)."

    I don't know about other public sector workers, but I don't hear many teachers whinging about their remuneration. I hear them complaining about the salary packages that they had signed up to - including pensions - being changed without any meaningful consultation, but that is not the same thing. What is the private sector equivalent of an army sergeant-major, a neuro-surgeon or a science teacher with an MSc and 20 experience?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2014
    PANIC! Re populus.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
    No, I mean 'internals' - questions other than the direct VI ones, for example questions like 'who would make best CoE' - across total base....

    Good to see your paranoia after the 'why are Unionists allowed to edit posts after 2 hours and I only get 6 minutes' has not subsided......
  • PANIC! Re populus.

    You're on course for fourth place.

    Arsenal are collapsing like Labour's poll share.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Will we see smaller gap in Jack's ARSE tomorrow ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Charles said:


    RodCrosby said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Labour are ... fecked
    Cue post from SO on how important the 35 threshold is and how he's not worried because Labour's vote is rock solid...

    I am highly unlikely to be voting Labour next year and certainly do not want to see a Labour majority government. What worries me is a majority Conservative government and I still see no signs of that happening. I expected a crossover poll in the wake of the budget - and said that prior to it being delivered. I am surprised that there has not been one.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    If the Tories are now neck and neck with Labour (we'll wait and see), it must be tempting to think what would happen if they could rid themselves of those pesky Scottish seats.

    Just a thought.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Shadsy's 4/6 Lab in Redcar looks generous to me - I'm on!
  • PANIC! Re populus.

    You're on course for fourth place.

    Arsenal are collapsing like Labour's poll share.
    Do me a favour....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Eagles, only the difference between two races.
  • PANIC! Re populus.

    You're on course for fourth place.

    Arsenal are collapsing like Labour's poll share.
    Do me a favour....
    I can see Man City spanking Arsenal on Saturday evening.

    Plus I have backed Spurs to get a Champs League place.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Charles said:


    RodCrosby said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Labour are ... fecked
    Cue post from SO on how important the 35 threshold is and how he's not worried because Labour's vote is rock solid...

    What worries me is a majority Conservative government and I still see no signs of that happening
    I would much rather have Cameron at the mercy of the LibDems than his Euro-nutters...... So my preferred options, in reverse (and then some) order of likelihood; Large Maj Con, Con-Lib coalition........I think a small maj Con or minority Con would be a nightmare......
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Kite flying?

    @bbclaurak: John Mills, biggest individual Labour donor, calling for pound to be devalued...

    A good dose of inflation should help the "cost of living crisis"......

    I assume the sarky comment about inflation was your's not John's? He's a very sensible guy.
    Then perhaps you can explain why devaluation and increased inflation are "sensible ideas"?
    Can you post a link to his comments rather than a tweet?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/10716848/Devalue-pound-to-boost-economy-says-JML-founder.html

    I think he's wrong - 'devaluation to boost manufacturing', rather than 'fixing productivity' - simply delays problems, then compounds them.
    It's difficult to tell from the article (would rather wait for the full paper on Thursday), but reading between the lines I think he is looking at devaluation as a short term boost and then using the window of opportunity for supply side reforms:

    The paper also calls for faster supply side reforms including faster planning laws and improved broadband speeds. It sets out the expected economic impact of the plan which, Mr Mills argues, would push GDP up by 3pc in the first year and by 5pc by the fifth year. The growth would give the Government flexibility to improve the cost of living without having to focus on the deficit

    I'm not convinced it works, because there are so many non-substituable goods - energy and commodities, for instance - so devaluation just creates inflation, but in theory his policy could have a positive impact provided that governments do not squander the breathing space created by avoiding the kind of reforms that are necessary in the long term.
  • Mr. Eagles, only the difference between two races.

    I'm an impatient man!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
    I don't think you understand the basics of opinion polling . There is a big difference between a sub sample in a poll and an internal question in a poll asked of the whole sample .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    F1 and politics:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-26712038

    Silverstone want the PM to stop £50m of taxpayers money (sounds like £30m could be Welsh, £20m Westminster) being funnelled towards a new Welsh circuit.

    I can see why Silverstone would be pissed. If memory serves, they get practically no help at all from the Government, despite the UK being home to over half the teams, which provides significant employment directly and through supply chains.
  • 3 early warning signs that Labour’s poll-lead drama is about to become a full blown crisis

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/03/24/3-early-warning-signs-that-labours-poll-lead-drama-is-about-to-become-a-full-blown-crisis/
  • Shadsy's 4/6 Lab in Redcar looks generous to me - I'm on!

    It does

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    PANIC! Re populus.

    You're on course for fourth place.

    Arsenal are collapsing like Labour's poll share.

    This is the worst Spurs side for five or six seasons, at least. And Arsenal will always find a way. Any money you have put on Spurs for the CL has been well and truly wasted!

  • F1 and politics:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-26712038

    Silverstone want the PM to stop £50m of taxpayers money (sounds like £30m could be Welsh, £20m Westminster) being funnelled towards a new Welsh circuit.

    I can see why Silverstone would be pissed. If memory serves, they get practically no help at all from the Government, despite the UK being home to over half the teams, which provides significant employment directly and through supply chains.

    Something similar happened in the cricket, with Cardiff getting an Ashes test which annoyed the English counties.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Kite flying?

    @bbclaurak: John Mills, biggest individual Labour donor, calling for pound to be devalued...

    A good dose of inflation should help the "cost of living crisis"......

    I assume the sarky comment about inflation was your's not John's? He's a very sensible guy.
    Then perhaps you can explain why devaluation and increased inflation are "sensible ideas"?
    Can you post a link to his comments rather than a tweet?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/10716848/Devalue-pound-to-boost-economy-says-JML-founder.html

    I think he's wrong - 'devaluation to boost manufacturing', rather than 'fixing productivity' - simply delays problems, then compounds them.
    provided that governments do not squander the breathing space created by avoiding the kind of reforms that are necessary in the long term.
    It's not just governments that squander breathing space. Having lived through high inflation I have no desire to go back to that - but if a party ever did want to feck the baby boomers who have eaten all the pies.....high inflation would be the way to do it.......
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    3 early warning signs that Labour’s poll-lead drama is about to become a full blown crisis

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/03/24/3-early-warning-signs-that-labours-poll-lead-drama-is-about-to-become-a-full-blown-crisis/

    Now if Dan Hodges had written that........
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    CD13 said:

    If the Tories are now neck and neck with Labour (we'll wait and see), it must be tempting to think what would happen if they could rid themselves of those pesky Scottish seats.

    Just a thought.

    Get BoJo on a plane to Edinburgh ASAP.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Nothing to start off the morning like an overbroke Berwick book.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
    I don't think you understand the basics of opinion polling . There is a big difference between a sub sample in a poll and an internal question in a poll asked of the whole sample .
    PanelBase have still not published the missing four questions of the NewNetGloucester poll.......I wonder why?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    And £10 of Labour in Redcar thankyou very much :)
  • GasmanGasman Posts: 132
    With regard to public sector pay/pensions and whether they're too high or too low the problem is that it's not possible to know due to the absence/restriction of a market. With locally set wages there would be a lot more useful information available about what the "correct" level is for any particular job. Currently the right can complain that public sector workers are overpaid, the public sector workers can complain that their terms and conditions are being eroded and pay being cut and both may be right, at least in places.

    Working in the NHS there are some obvious problems - A+E being one of them. It isn't a very good job (I wouldn't want to do it!) and the sensible thing to do (assuming we want to have A+E staff) would be to raise the pay to attract more people. Instead the pay is being cut (inflation + increased pension contributions) along with every other NHS job. The answer is the end of national pay scales, but unfortunately I don't see that happening just yet.

    The understanding within NHS management doesn't seem great either. I've heard in a trust near me that the response to a shortage of A+E nurses is to change their rotas so that the remaining ones work 3 out of every 4 weekends to cover the gaps. I think the shortages may get worse there!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Given that we have daily polls, I don't see why the data can't be re-churned to produce weekly regional ones. It just takes someone to pay Kellner the dosh...

    YouGov would have postcodes too. You could break it down by settlement size and concentrate on the Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands, the places with settlement sizes in the range 10,000 - 100,000 that are the swing vote areas between the Tories rural strongholds and Labour urban strongholds.

    YouGov poll more than 10,000 people a week. In a month they would get an average of more than 60 people per constituency - if one assumes their polling panel is big enough that they don't poll the same people more than once a month.

    You could do a lot more with that data then produce a set of 20-odd "daily" national polls.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
    I don't think you understand the basics of opinion polling . There is a big difference between a sub sample in a poll and an internal question in a poll asked of the whole sample .
    Yawn.

    The Carlotta & Co analysis of internals invariably involves analysis of sub-samples. You really should pay more attention Mark.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    PANIC! Re populus.

    You're on course for fourth place.

    Arsenal are collapsing like Labour's poll share.

    This is the worst Spurs side for five or six seasons, at least. And Arsenal will always find a way. Any money you have put on Spurs for the CL has been well and truly wasted!

    In Spain this would be like Real Sociedad or Villarreal fans constantly associating themselves with the Champions League. Why do Spurs fans think of their team in those terms?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Now if Dan Hodges had written that........

    That's the thing with these polls, they are self fulfilling in that they encourage dissent in the ranks, and we all know how voters can't abide division.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited March 2014

    The black swan event in terms of making money betting on outcomes is considering the circumstances that would be capable of changing this pattern.

    The corollary of the existence of this advantage for Labour in the status quo is that the Tories could pick up seats even on a zero swing in the national vote shares, if they can reduce the extent of this advantage.

    One might imagine, for example, that some Liberal Democrat voters in Lab-Con marginals might become more inclined to vote tactically Tory if they are reminded that the Coalition with the Tories enabled them to see some of their manifesto delivered (eg the increase in the personal tax allowance, the pupil premium, etc) and also to junk some of the more negative aspects of the previous Labour government (eg ID cards, Ed Balls as a cabinet minister, etc).

    If you assume that:
    1) Some of the current Lab support is from left-leaning LibDems.
    2) In Lab-Con marginals some left-leaning LibDems voted Lab, despite like-minded people identifying as Lib in national polls
    ...then some of the LibDems who have moved in the national polls are already Labour voters where it counts.

    So if the parties got the same national scores as last time, you'd expect Con to gain seats from Lab.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Eagles, many F1 circuits now get oodles of cash thrown at them by governments. Silverstone didn't (Spa's at risk because of this, incidentally), despite it's historic nature and our strong commercial interest in F1 in the UK. For money to be tossed at a Welsh circuit which won't host F1 would not sit well, one suspects.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Way off-topic:

    Track is going down in the Dawlish breach:
    http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg

    I get the sense we are getting (relatively) good at major infrastructure - starting from T5, then the Olympics (which I was convinced we'd screw up) and now CrossRail.......who knows how HS2 will turn out......
    Maybe in England. Scotland's not doing so well.
    (cough) Edinburgh tram (/cough)
    (cough) Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine (/cough)
    Have you heard how the new Forth bridge is doing?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
    I don't think you understand the basics of opinion polling . There is a big difference between a sub sample in a poll and an internal question in a poll asked of the whole sample .
    Yawn.

    The Carlotta & Co analysis of internals invariably involves analysis of sub-samples. You really should pay more attention Mark.
    Wrong. I was talking about the total base response.....you are the sub-sample fetishist - and have the scars to prove it......

  • I see Nottingham Forest have replaced one unpleasant manager with another one.

    Billy Davies out and Colin in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Memo to YouGov: (checks betting slip) There's only a week left in Q1, so if you could see your way to publishing a poll with a Labour lead of zero in the next few days, I'd be most obliged.

    Q2 was available at 6-1 also ;)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    3 early warning signs that Labour’s poll-lead drama is about to become a full blown crisis

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/03/24/3-early-warning-signs-that-labours-poll-lead-drama-is-about-to-become-a-full-blown-crisis/

    TSE

    That article contains a very interesting Table on, "% difference between average weekly poll rating for the opposition one year before an election and the actual election result."

    The difference on average is about -4% to -6%.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,771
    @Charles
    The paper also calls for faster supply side reforms including faster planning laws and improved broadband speeds. It sets out the expected economic impact of the plan which, Mr Mills argues, would push GDP up by 3pc in the first year and by 5pc by the fifth year. ...

    Who knew boosting growth like that would be so easy?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    CD13 said:

    If the Tories are now neck and neck with Labour (we'll wait and see), it must be tempting to think what would happen if they could rid themselves of those pesky Scottish seats.

    Just a thought.

    Scottish seats will still be there come yay or nay in 2015.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    O/T

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/art/art-reviews/10672852/Discoveries-Two-Temple-Place-review.html

    Our home is open to the public for another month if anyone wants to pop by to see the exhibition we have on at the moment. It's worth it just to see either the house or the exhibits, but they are a great combination as well.

    The interior is decorated with literary, mythic and historic references – characters from Shakespeare, Anne Boleyn and Robin Hood are carved into precious woods with the highest craftsmanship... This year’s show draws on the collections of the University of Cambridge’s eight museums, and explores the concept of discovery. Curated like a cabinet of curiosity, it is the first time items from all eight museums have been brought together. Disparate objects from zoology, anthropology, archeology, classicism, art and science intermingle, and are chosen because they all reflect or inspire discovery, as well as provoke wonder and intrigue.

    If anyone happens to be in London it really is highly recommended.
  • Pulpstar said:

    CD13 said:

    If the Tories are now neck and neck with Labour (we'll wait and see), it must be tempting to think what would happen if they could rid themselves of those pesky Scottish seats.

    Just a thought.

    Scottish seats will still be there come yay or nay in 2015.
    If Scotland votes Yes, then change the status of Scotland's Westminster MPs to something equivalent of Puerto Rico's Resident Commissioner to the US House of Representatives.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resident_Commissioner_of_Puerto_Rico
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2014
    Owen Jones realises that we have no business in Libya.. three years after Peter Hitchens...

    ...and what a great line to the kid in favour of invading Libya!

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/24/libya-disaster-shames-western-interventionists

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puMqlj0QRjA
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Andrew Lansley's odds seem to have come in a hell of alot for the EU commissioner job.

    *Checks betslip - on at 7-1* now 11/10, 6/4 generally. Has something happened with this market ?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Financier said:


    That article contains a very interesting Table on, "% difference between average weekly poll rating for the opposition one year before an election and the actual election result."

    The difference on average is about -4% to -6%.

    Labour are sooo... fecked!
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
    I don't think you understand the basics of opinion polling . There is a big difference between a sub sample in a poll and an internal question in a poll asked of the whole sample .
    Yawn.

    The Carlotta & Co analysis of internals invariably involves analysis of sub-samples. You really should pay more attention Mark.
    Wrong. I was talking about the total base response.....you are the sub-sample fetishist - and have the scars to prove it......

    Carlotta and Marky sitting in a tree. K-I-S-S-I-N-G...

    Mark is a big boy now Carlotta. He doesn't need mummy to pull his socks up in public.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    An interesting programme on Radio 4 tonight

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03yn83q
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Way off-topic:

    Track is going down in the Dawlish breach:
    http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg

    I get the sense we are getting (relatively) good at major infrastructure - starting from T5, then the Olympics (which I was convinced we'd screw up) and now CrossRail.......who knows how HS2 will turn out......
    Maybe in England. Scotland's not doing so well.
    (cough) Edinburgh tram (/cough)
    (cough) Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine (/cough)
    Have you heard how the new Forth bridge is doing?
    Not well. They've had terrible trouble with the foundation caissons in the firth. However, the SNP government appear to have done a good deal (*), and the contractors *should* take any financial hit. However contractors have been very good in the past (sometimes justifiably) in getting extra costs passed to the client.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/company-news/deep-trouble.23509317

    (*) Just to clarify for MalcolmG: this is an Englishman praising the SNP government.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    3 early warning signs that Labour’s poll-lead drama is about to become a full blown crisis

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/03/24/3-early-warning-signs-that-labours-poll-lead-drama-is-about-to-become-a-full-blown-crisis/

    As Financier also notes, this:

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Graph-pic.jpg

    is the table that should give pause for thought for those complacently assuming that Labour can expect to hold onto its existing supporters.

    This Time It's Different are the four most expensive words in the English language.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Charles said:

    O/T

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/art/art-reviews/10672852/Discoveries-Two-Temple-Place-review.html

    Our home is open to the public for another month if anyone wants to pop by to see the exhibition we have on at the moment. It's worth it just to see either the house or the exhibits, but they are a great combination as well.

    The interior is decorated with literary, mythic and historic references – characters from Shakespeare, Anne Boleyn and Robin Hood are carved into precious woods with the highest craftsmanship... This year’s show draws on the collections of the University of Cambridge’s eight museums, and explores the concept of discovery. Curated like a cabinet of curiosity, it is the first time items from all eight museums have been brought together. Disparate objects from zoology, anthropology, archeology, classicism, art and science intermingle, and are chosen because they all reflect or inspire discovery, as well as provoke wonder and intrigue.

    If anyone happens to be in London it really is highly recommended.

    Charles, thank you.

    Have just recommended it to my younger son who lives in London to make a visit.
  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Hopefully the end of Compouter's 'CROSSOVER!' meme is in sight.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    isam said:

    PANIC! Re populus.

    You're on course for fourth place.

    Arsenal are collapsing like Labour's poll share.

    This is the worst Spurs side for five or six seasons, at least. And Arsenal will always find a way. Any money you have put on Spurs for the CL has been well and truly wasted!

    In Spain this would be like Real Sociedad or Villarreal fans constantly associating themselves with the Champions League. Why do Spurs fans think of their team in those terms?

    The last four seasons for Spurs: 5th, 4th, 5th, 4th. Not sure how Real Sociedad and Villareal have done over the same time span, but it does not seem unreasonable for Spurs to aspire to CL football on the basis of what has been done over recent years. Obviously, we do not have close to the income that the CL regulars have, so it makes things harder, but if you do not have ambition, what is the point?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
    I don't think you understand the basics of opinion polling . There is a big difference between a sub sample in a poll and an internal question in a poll asked of the whole sample .
    Yawn.

    The Carlotta & Co analysis of internals invariably involves analysis of sub-samples. You really should pay more attention Mark.
    Wrong. I was talking about the total base response.....you are the sub-sample fetishist - and have the scars to prove it......

    Carlotta and Marky sitting in a tree. K-I-S-S-I-N-G...

    Mark is a big boy now Carlotta. He doesn't need mummy to pull his socks up in public.

    Now now, no need for a huff just because you didn't know what an 'internal' was. ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    Hopefully the end of Compouter's 'CROSSOVER!' meme is in sight.

    Well the polls will have to crossover again sometime after the first crossover, surely?!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
    I don't think you understand the basics of opinion polling . There is a big difference between a sub sample in a poll and an internal question in a poll asked of the whole sample .
    Yawn.

    The Carlotta & Co analysis of internals invariably involves analysis of sub-samples. You really should pay more attention Mark.
    Wrong. I was talking about the total base response.....you are the sub-sample fetishist - and have the scars to prove it......

    Carlotta and Marky sitting in a tree. K-I-S-S-I-N-G...

    Mark is a big boy now Carlotta. He doesn't need mummy to pull his socks up in public.

    More a question of you sitting in a hole, D-I-G-G-I-N-G...

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:

    RC: "Labour heading for quite a heavy defeat next year then. Agree?"

    I don't know about heavy.
  • The Tories are now a regional party. Very strong in English shires, very week in metropolitan and urban parts or England. And Wales. And Scotland.

    This Scotland canard comes up quite a lot but appears to based wholly on seat numbers.

    In 2010 the Tories, LDs and SNP all go more or less the same vote as each other in Scotland. All received trivial shares compared to Labour which got 42%.

    If you were to say that Conservatism is regional you'd be closer to the facts. Scotland and Wales are essentially like SovBloc states circa about 1975. Over 80% of the votes are cast for left wing collectivist parties.

    There is a People's Front of Judaea / Judaean People's Front aspect to this inasmuch as they all fundamentally agree other people should be expropriated to fund themselves, but can't agree what to call this.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Off-topic:

    A BBC article about why Cambridge is the best place in the world:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-26683055

    ;-)

    From my perspective, it's right to detail the financing problems small start-ups find.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 1m

    New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-3); Cons 34 (=); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (+1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140324

    ... the YouGov internals yesterday were ......

    "Internals" ?? You mean sub-samples. I thought we weren't allowed to mention them around here. Or is it OK if you are a Lib-Con ?
    I don't think you understand the basics of opinion polling . There is a big difference between a sub sample in a poll and an internal question in a poll asked of the whole sample .
    Yawn.

    The Carlotta & Co analysis of internals invariably involves analysis of sub-samples. You really should pay more attention Mark.
    Wrong. I was talking about the total base response.....you are the sub-sample fetishist - and have the scars to prove it......

    Carlotta and Marky sitting in a tree. K-I-S-S-I-N-G...

    Mark is a big boy now Carlotta. He doesn't need mummy to pull his socks up in public.

    Oh dear....you must be really embarrassed not knowing what an 'internal' is.....and who needs to pull his socks up.....?

    .....any idea when we'll see the suppressed missing Panelbase questions?
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Kingston & Surbiton
    2/5 Liberal Democrats
    7/4 Conservatives

    Gordon
    5/4 Liberal Democrats
    2 SNP
    5/2 Labour
    20 Conservatives

    Southport
    2/5 Liberal Democrats
    7/4 Conservatives
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    edited March 2014
    Assume this is part of the Scotsman's ICM Indy poll:

    'The SNP is leading Scottish Labour in the fight to win over voters ahead of the European Parliament elections, a new poll has found. The Nationalists are ahead of Labour by 12 percentage points, with 41% of the vote, compared with 29%, according to the survey conducted by ICM Research for the Scotsman newspaper. The Scottish Conservatives are in third place with 13%, Ukip have 6%, while the Scottish Liberal Democrats trail on five per cent.'

    LDs being beaten by UKIP Scotland, the humiliation; Lyon is looking like a well known breakfast comestible.

    At the risk of being accused of 'othering':

    'The 1000 people polled were also asked how they would vote in a referendum on the UK's EU membership if there was ballot tomorrow. Results show that 47% of people would opt to stay in, while 30% would vote to leave. The remainder did not know.'

    http://tinyurl.com/nt3u3kg
This discussion has been closed.