The next step for UKIP is to be view as a credible party rather than just the latest repository for voters who hate the main parties. Having Nadine Dorries as one of your highest profile members doesn't help that.
"So the economic arguments are about to go the tories' way in a big way. Better growth, lower borrowing, some extra cash for the odd goodie and a more general "feelgood" factor. I think the important point for the tories to grasp is that this is an opportunity, not a result. They need to seize that opportunity and ensure that the CD portion of the electorate who form the backbone of UKIP support see some of these benefits. Government services and charges, transportation and energy. All of these need to start falling in real terms and all available resources need to be focussed on that. Some wage inflation would not be bad thing either."
The UKIP crowd aren't going to get anything from economic growth apart from 'London House Prices Soar' media headlines and increased numbers of economic migrants.
Whatever happens to the economy the UKIP crowd is going to get bigger and angrier.
The fundamental consequences of economic globalisation cause this with governments pretty much powerless.
What will hurt the Conservatives though is that the Cameroons clearly don't care about the adverse effects globalisation has on some on people. Even worse they seem to relish that they are themselves getting richer at the expense of those with less privileged backgrounds.
The Evans case is being reported sensibly and correctly, that's exactly the point. There is no need for Tories to attack them. The contrast is astonishing, but predictable.
And in what way is it substantially different from the reporting of the Rennard story?
The thing that kept that in the news was the seniority of his position and the failure of the Lib Dems to investigate the original complaints - compounded by, to put it kindly "an evolving narrative" of "who knew what when."
The exposure of the Lib Dems to the sort of scrutiny the Conservative and Labour parties have faced for decades was however entertaining.
If you think the Evans story isn't getting coverage - try a google search.
And when you find Tories complaining about the coverage - let me know.....
Your obvious tactic of replying to posts that I haven't made is hilarious because everyone can read just a few posts ago exactly what we have both said. But I'll repeat because you're obviously having difficulty this morning: the Evans case is being reported sensibly, so there is no need for Tory complaints.
Nice Morris Dancer phrase about attacking UKIP at the moment being like trying to stab a ghost in the dark. If his books are as well-phrased as that, it's time to sign up.
David L, I was interested to read that, in the context of an export performance that has been poor overall, exports to non-EU countries have risen steadily over the past 10 years. The share of exports going to BRICS has gone from 2% to 8% over that time, and visible exports to the EU have gone from 62% to 49%.
It may be that we've reached a watershed, where strong demand from the rest of the world starts to offset weak demand from the EU. The government should get lucky with oil production this year, too.
"So the economic arguments are about to go the tories' way in a big way. Better growth, lower borrowing, some extra cash for the odd goodie and a more general "feelgood" factor. I think the important point for the tories to grasp is that this is an opportunity, not a result. They need to seize that opportunity and ensure that the CD portion of the electorate who form the backbone of UKIP support see some of these benefits. Government services and charges, transportation and energy. All of these need to start falling in real terms and all available resources need to be focussed on that. Some wage inflation would not be bad thing either."
The UKIP crowd aren't going to get anything from economic growth apart from 'London House Prices Soar' media headlines and increased numbers of economic migrants.
Whatever happens to the economy the UKIP crowd is going to get bigger and angrier.
The fundamental consequences of economic globalisation cause this with governments pretty much powerless.
What will hurt the Conservatives though is that the Cameroons clearly don't care about the adverse effects globalisation has on some on people. Even worse they seem to relish that they are themselves getting richer at the expense of those with less privileged backgrounds.
It seems to me Richard that our analysis is very close to agreement. I am hopeful that the government will recognise the need to help those who have been hardest hit by the recession and you seem convinced that they will not. Who is right about that will determine the next election. Growth, which benefits the rich and not the poor, is not the answer in itself, especially in a time when working benefits are being cut, but it gives an opportunity to find answers. Specifically:
No more fuel duty increases and a cut in green subsidies built into energy prices.
The government should do what it can to incentivise LG to freeze Council tax.
The above inflation increases we have seen for every government service from licences to parking must stop.
Transportation costs, specifically for trains and buses, must be kept below inflation.
Achieving these things and keeping borrowing on a downward path will be challenging but the government needs to do what it can and be seen to do as much as it can to help those "hard working families" (I hate that cliche).
Unless de-selected (unlikely now), she would romp home as a Tory.
Being elected as a Tory isn't really doing her many favours at the moment. Might be worth a punt. If there was a Tory minority govt after 2015, her vote would give her a lot of influence.
David L, I was interested to read that, in the context of an export performance that has been poor overall, exports to non-EU countries have risen steadily over the past 10 years. The share of exports going to BRICS has gone from 2% to 8% over that time, and visible exports to the EU have gone from 62% to 49%.
It may be that we've reached a watershed, where strong demand from the rest of the world starts to offset weak demand from the EU. The government should get lucky with oil production this year, too.
It indicated that although the trend was clear the pattern was rather more variable. He said:
"This is part of an ongoing story. In 2008, Britain exports of goods to the rest of the EU totalled £142bn. They slumped to £125bn in 2009, recovered to £142bn in 2010 and grew well in 2011, rising to £159bn. But last year they dropped again to £151bn, helping to explain 2012’s weak GDP growth.
Exports to the rest of the world, in contrast, fell by less in the crisis - dropping from £110bn to £103bn from 2008 to 2009 - but have been rising since: £124bn in 2010, £140bn in 2011 and £149bn last year.
It has been nip and tuck in recent months whether exports to the rest of the world are marginally higher or lower than those to the EU. In the latest three months, non-EU exports were ahead, and this is likely to be the shape of things to come."
My guess is that the change is being diminished by the Rotterdam effect which makes many of our car exports, for example, look like they are being exported to europe. Even taking that into account, however, our exporters have found breaking into previously neglected markets difficult and it has taken time. Some time ago I forecast by the time of any referendum in 2017 EU exports would only be 40% of our overall. We are going to have to move a bit faster to achieve this.
@Jonathan - Might be missing the point (sorry) but if she switched to UKIP and retained her seat in a 'confirmatory' by-election, I still think she's lose it at the 2015 General. She would thus have no influence at all post 2015.
Whereas if she remains in the blue team, she might carry some weight (but not much) within the party, either if the Tories form a minority governmentm but more so should the party lose and a more right-wing leadership to replace Cameron (as would unquestionably be the case).
The next step for UKIP is to be view as a credible party rather than just the latest repository for voters who hate the main parties. Having Nadine Dorries as one of your highest profile members doesn't help that.
She's an MP, and gets interviewed on the telly. That's all the credibility required.
"So the economic arguments are about to go the tories' way in a big way. Better growth, lower borrowing, some extra cash for the odd goodie and a more general "feelgood" factor. I think the important point for the tories to grasp is that this is an opportunity, not a result. They need to seize that opportunity and ensure that the CD portion of the electorate who form the backbone of UKIP support see some of these benefits. Government services and charges, transportation and energy. All of these need to start falling in real terms and all available resources need to be focussed on that. Some wage inflation would not be bad thing either."
The UKIP crowd aren't going to get anything from economic growth apart from 'London House Prices Soar' media headlines and increased numbers of economic migrants.
Whatever happens to the economy the UKIP crowd is going to get bigger and angrier.
The fundamental consequences of economic globalisation cause this with governments pretty much powerless.
What will hurt the Conservatives though is that the Cameroons clearly don't care about the adverse effects globalisation has on some on people. Even worse they seem to relish that they are themselves getting richer at the expense of those with less privileged backgrounds.
It seems to me Richard that our analysis is very close to agreement. I am hopeful that the government will recognise the need to help those who have been hardest hit by the recession and you seem convinced that they will not. Who is right about that will determine the next election. Growth, which benefits the rich and not the poor, is not the answer in itself, especially in a time when working benefits are being cut, but it gives an opportunity to find answers. Specifically:
No more fuel duty increases and a cut in green subsidies built into energy prices.
The government should do what it can to incentivise LG to freeze Council tax.
The above inflation increases we have seen for every government service from licences to parking must stop.
Transportation costs, specifically for trains and buses, must be kept below inflation.
Achieving these things and keeping borrowing on a downward path will be challenging but the government needs to do what it can and be seen to do as much as it can to help those "hard working families" (I hate that cliche).
I don't think the Cameroons are interested in doing anything for the UKIP crowd and I don't think they can do anything about the effects of globalisation.
So the UKIP crowd aren't going to benefit from wage inflation and their standard of living will fall. Meanwhile the government can't do anything about economic migrants from eastern and southern Europe.
If the government wanted to do something symbolic which would at least make the UKIP crowd feel the pain was being shared then the obvious thing is a mansion tax.
@Jonathan - Might be missing the point (sorry) but if she switched to UKIP and retained her seat in a 'confirmatory' by-election, I still think she's lose it at the 2015 General. She would thus have no influence at all post 2015.
Whereas if she remains in the blue team, she might carry some weight (but not much) within the party, either if the Tories form a minority governmentm but more so should the party lose and a more right-wing leadership to replace Cameron (as would unquestionably be the case).
But what if she did win in 2015? She is going nowhere at the moment.
"So the economic arguments are about to go the tories' way in a big way. Better growth, lower borrowing, some extra cash for the odd goodie and a more general "feelgood" factor. I think the important point for the tories to grasp is that this is an opportunity, not a result. They need to seize that opportunity and ensure that the CD portion of the electorate who form the backbone of UKIP support see some of these benefits. Government services and charges, transportation and energy. All of these need to start falling in real terms and all available resources need to be focussed on that. Some wage inflation would not be bad thing either."
The UKIP crowd aren't going to get anything from economic growth apart from 'London House Prices Soar' media headlines and increased numbers of economic migrants.
Whatever happens to the economy the UKIP crowd is going to get bigger and angrier.
The fundamental consequences of economic globalisation cause this with governments pretty much powerless.
What will hurt the Conservatives though is that the Cameroons clearly don't care about the adverse effects globalisation has on some on people. Even worse they seem to relish that they are themselves getting richer at the expense of those with less privileged backgrounds.
I broadly share your analysis too. It is globalisation and the failure of the existing parties to recognise its impact on ordinary people that is ultimately fuelling the rise of UKIP. The fact that the anger is channelled at immigration, the EU and other visible outcomes is a case of the symptom being identified but not necessarily the cause.
It's a sunny bank holiday.........and Tim's been posting uninterrupted since 5.00am
Seek help
tim lives in a permanent grey overcast world, unhappy unless there is something to moan about. It comes from being a farmer, I expect. Either that or a Dementor.
I've been away from internetz for a couple of weeks - are there any value bets that I've missed?
Surely the 4/7 via ladbrokes on UKIP outpolling the tories in the Euros is now a banker?
It certainly seems that way, especially given Ladbrokes themselves give UKIP a 4/5 chance of winning the whole thing, with the Tories on 10/1. How can UKIP have a 55% chance of winning the elections, but only a 60% (roughly) chance of beating the party that should come third? If the 4/7 isn't a banker, then the 10/1 sure is!
"So the economic arguments are about to go the tories' way in a big way. Better growth, lower borrowing, some extra cash for the odd goodie and a more general "feelgood" factor. I think the important point for the tories to grasp is that this is an opportunity, not a result. They need to seize that opportunity and ensure that the CD portion of the electorate who form the backbone of UKIP support see some of these benefits. Government services and charges, transportation and energy. All of these need to start falling in real terms and all available resources need to be focussed on that. Some wage inflation would not be bad thing either."
The UKIP crowd aren't going to get anything from economic growth apart from 'London House Prices Soar' media headlines and increased numbers of economic migrants.
Whatever happens to the economy the UKIP crowd is going to get bigger and angrier.
The fundamental consequences of economic globalisation cause this with governments pretty much powerless.
What will hurt the Conservatives though is that the Cameroons clearly don't care about the adverse effects globalisation has on some on people. Even worse they seem to relish that they are themselves getting richer at the expense of those with less privileged backgrounds.
It seems to me Richard that our analysis is very close to agreement. I am hopeful that the government will recognise the need to help those who have been hardest hit by the recession and you seem convinced that they will not. Who is right about that will determine the next election. Growth, which benefits the rich and not the poor, is not the answer in itself, especially in a time when working benefits are being cut, but it gives an opportunity to find answers. Specifically:
No more fuel duty increases and a cut in green subsidies built into energy prices.
The government should do what it can to incentivise LG to freeze Council tax.
The above inflation increases we have seen for every government service from licences to parking must stop.
Transportation costs, specifically for trains and buses, must be kept below inflation.
Achieving these things and keeping borrowing on a downward path will be challenging but the government needs to do what it can and be seen to do as much as it can to help those "hard working families" (I hate that cliche).
I don't think the Cameroons are interested in doing anything for the UKIP crowd and I don't think they can do anything about the effects of globalisation.
So the UKIP crowd aren't going to benefit from wage inflation and their standard of living will fall. Meanwhile the government can't do anything about economic migrants from eastern and southern Europe.
If the government wanted to do something symbolic which would at least make the UKIP crowd feel the pain was being shared then the obvious thing is a mansion tax.
The apparent description by a Downing St worker of UKIP voters as "Lifes Losers" does match with this meme. Those voters who see that despite their own hard work, and following of the rules, they are getting nowhere, while a combination of public schoolboys and migrants take what they see as their birthright. The remark may well not have been an insult, but perhaps the beginning of insight at number 10.
The family don't move, they stay in London, their children are counted as white people who have left London, and the fact that they have had mixed raced children adds to the segregation data in your article.
You just keep concentrating on splitting hairs while people who see the bigger picture vote for UKIP
You should read the hedgehogs and foxes article by Douglas Murray, it shows where your old fashioned style of politics has gone wrong
For those who care to read it, it all makes sense apart from one statement. Confidence in the Free Syrian Army is growing because they have shown greater integration in a number of areas such as the Southern Sector opposite Jordan. They have also clearly used tactical and intelligence advice provided by the US.
In reality, however, they have been under the cosh in the areas around the cities that represent the strategic line that Assad must hold. The heavy supply of Russian and Iranian material and the infusion of thousands of Iranian and Hizbollah troops has assisted Assads forces plenty. To that end, if the rebels continue to take pressure the West, so long calling for Bashar's exit and playing a tinkering game of intervention, will get a serious strategic reversal if Assad holds on (though its unlikely he will) that Russia and Iran will not forget.
I've been away from internetz for a couple of weeks - are there any value bets that I've missed?
Surely the 4/7 via ladbrokes on UKIP outpolling the tories in the Euros is now a banker?
It certainly seems that way, especially given Ladbrokes themselves give UKIP a 4/5 chance of winning the whole thing, with the Tories on 10/1. How can UKIP have a 55% chance of winning the elections, but only a 60% (roughly) chance of beating the party that should come third? If the 4/7 isn't a banker, then the 10/1 sure is!
Ladbrokes had put the prices in the wrong way a while ago Tories 4/6 Ukip 11/10 despite the outright betting being 2/1ukip 10/1con
When i mentioned it on here I had people telling me it was the right price! Some people will argue about anything!
Right now UKIP is the protest party. People can happily project their views onto the purples, and get a nice feeling from kicking the established parties.
But if Dorries went to UKIP then that could cost them many leftwing votes. For a start, it'd mean UKIP had an MP, who would naturally get a lot of media attention. But the whole PUKIP [ahem, the Parliamentary UKIP] would be an ex-Conservative and a gaffe-prone one at that.
I don't called UKIP "UKIP" in conversation, I call them the I've-been-shafted-by-David-Cameron Party.
No referendum on Lisbon. Gay marriage. No tax breaks for marriage. Omnishambles budget. Tax rises.
Considering Dorries working-class origins, her strong opposition to abortion and her being patronised/insulted by Cameron, I think she would be a perfect fit for UKIP.
Obviously, thats why the core UKIP vote is poorly educated old white men. Just like the Republican Party.
I know you want a country where white British people are the minority in the capital, and there are segregated ghettoes all over the place, and so obviously you will vote Labour as they have the best record of achievement in this area.
I completely disagree and will vote UKIP.
Intellectual marxist snobbery will work in the same way for Labour as the Old Etonian chumocracy has for the Conservatives.
But keep dividing people into sub samples of data if you think thats the way to win voters over
"Foreigner pension crackdown will be 'bureaucratic nightmare' Plans to close the loophole that allows hundreds of thousands of foreigners to receive UK state pensions will be an expensive "bureaucratic nightmare" that could cost as much as it saves, experts warn."
"There even now exists the substantial possibility – and I put it no higher than that – that we are witnessing the beginnings of a permanent transformation of British electoral politics, that never again will Labour or the Conservatives be able to command a parliamentary majority, even under first past the post and that both these traditional political brands are in an irreversible long-term decline.
If this is the case then UKIP has by far the best prospects of any alternative of breaking into the Westminster big time."
With 23% of the vote, UKIP's support plainly ranges a long way beyond "poorly educated White men", a comment which differs little from calling them "life's losers.". Certainly, UKIPs support tends to be strongest among working class voters.
Why do Oxford folk go on about their colleges? Weird. Doesn't seem to impact other institutions quite as much.
No-one ever seems to say they went to the University of London; they went to UCL, Imperial, or KCL instead, so they're as bad as Oxford really. Don't know why Cambridge alumni don't mention their college as much, but I don't think they're secretive about it. Durham alumni wouldn't mention it because nobody else would know what they were talking about.
Are there any other collegiate universities I haven't covered?
I generally mention my college (Christ Church) only if asked; and tend only to be asked by other Oxford alumni. I think part of the reason they ask is to make sure that when a person says they went to Oxford, they didn't actually go to Oxford Brookes (they're well known for claiming to have gone to Oxford Uni)
Also, @MikeSmithson, Christ Church is superb. Recent notable successes for my alma mater include some of the expenses highlights (moat cleaning and buying horseshit, by Hogg and HeathcoatAmory), and we've had a Louise Mensch, a Mehdi Hasan and a James Delingpole. And we're Hogwarts!
The Court of Appeal (Maurice Kay, Moses & Davis LJJ) in Regina (on the application of William Hill Organisation Ltd & Another) v The Horserace Betting Levy Board & Otherrs[2013] EWCA Civ 487 has today dismissed William Hill's appeal against the judgment of the Administrative Court (Stanley Burnton LJ) which held that business customers of betting exchanges are not liable to be levied for tax purposes as bookmakers. Betfair retains its commercial advantage.
Why do Oxford folk go on about their colleges? Weird. Doesn't seem to impact other institutions quite as much.
No-one ever seems to say they went to the University of London; they went to UCL, Imperial, or KCL instead, so they're as bad as Oxford really. Don't know why Cambridge alumni don't mention their college as much, but I don't think they're secretive about it. Durham alumni wouldn't mention it because nobody else would know what they were talking about.
Imperial is not part of the University of London. The remaining London colleges are run entirely separately. Quite different beasts and really universities in their own right.
Why do Oxford folk go on about their colleges? Weird. Doesn't seem to impact other institutions quite as much.
Also, @MikeSmithson, Christ Church is superb. Recent notable successes for my alma mater include some of the expenses highlights (moat cleaning and buying horseshit, by Hogg and HeathcoatAmory), and we've had a Louise Mensch, a Mehdi Hasan and a James Delingpole. And we're Hogwarts!
Why do Oxford folk go on about their colleges? Weird. Doesn't seem to impact other institutions quite as much.
No-one ever seems to say they went to the University of London; they went to UCL, Imperial, or KCL instead, so they're as bad as Oxford really. Don't know why Cambridge alumni don't mention their college as much, but I don't think they're secretive about it. Durham alumni wouldn't mention it because nobody else would know what they were talking about.
Imperial is not part of the University of London. The remaining London colleges are run entirely separately. Quite different beasts.
Imperial has only been independent since 2007, so most alumni were of the University of London. It may be a different beast but it's still a collegiate university, and without it I'd have just had Durham.
Why do Oxford folk go on about their colleges? Weird. Doesn't seem to impact other institutions quite as much.
No-one ever seems to say they went to the University of London; they went to UCL, Imperial, or KCL instead, so they're as bad as Oxford really. Don't know why Cambridge alumni don't mention their college as much, but I don't think they're secretive about it. Durham alumni wouldn't mention it because nobody else would know what they were talking about.
Imperial is not part of the University of London. The remaining London colleges are run entirely separately. Quite different beasts.
Imperial has only been independent since 2007, so most alumni were of the University of London. It may be a different beast but it's still a collegiate university, and without it I'd have just had Durham.
Nobody gives a flying rats arse where people went to university. Oxford alumni do tend to drone on about some remarkably parochial stuff as if it matters.
With 23% of the vote, UKIP's support plainly ranges a long way beyond "poorly educated White men", a comment which differs little from calling them "life's losers.". Certainly, UKIPs support tends to be strongest among working class voters.
Right. And it's an extremely obnoxious thing to say from a party whose leader defends the old boys network of giving your rich mates' children internships that aren't available to the working class.
Obviously, thats why the core UKIP vote is poorly educated old white men. Just like the Republican Party.
I know you want a country where white British people are the minority in the capital, and there are segregated ghettoes all over the place, and so obviously you will vote Labour as they have the best record of achievement in this area.
I completely disagree and will vote UKIP.
Intellectual marxist snobbery will work in the same way for Labour as the Old Etonian chumocracy has for the Conservatives.
But keep dividing people into sub samples of data if you think thats the way to win voters over
I don't really care what colour Londoners are, as no single group of foreign born Londoners makes up more than 3% of the population I don't have an issue with the capital at all. It's likely that the economic growth and rise in educational achievemnt are fuelled by this demographic change
Its no wonder that people who count mixed race Londoners both as "white flight" and an increasing sign of segregation improve the capitals educational standards when they leave, is it?
Right now UKIP is the protest party. People can happily project their views onto the purples, and get a nice feeling from kicking the established parties.
But if Dorries went to UKIP then that could cost them many leftwing votes. For a start, it'd mean UKIP had an MP, who would naturally get a lot of media attention. But the whole PUKIP [ahem, the Parliamentary UKIP] would be an ex-Conservative and a gaffe-prone one at that.
I don't called UKIP "UKIP" in conversation, I call them the I've-been-shafted-by-David-Cameron Party.
No referendum on Lisbon. Gay marriage. No tax breaks for marriage. Omnishambles budget. Tax rises.
Considering Dorries working-class origins, her strong opposition to abortion and her being patronised/insulted by Cameron, I think she would be a perfect fit for UKIP.
Nadine doesn't have strong opposition to abortion. She has personally said she would keep if legal up to 12 weeks.
Nobody gives I don't give a flying rats arse where people went to university. Oxford alumni do tend to drone on about some remarkably parochial stuff as if it matters.
Ahead of Northern Ireland coucils shake up (the number of councils will be reduced from 26 to 11), they are suggesting a severance scheme for Cllrs choosing not to stand next year The proposal is basically giving them 1,000£ for each year they served before Good Friday Agreement and 600£ for each year after (maximum is 35,000). Some are not happy about the proposal weighting more for councillors elected before the Agreement.
Nobody gives I don't give a flying rats arse where people went to university. Oxford alumni do tend to drone on about some remarkably parochial stuff as if it matters.
OK, so the Mail and the Telegraph now go and find a load of British women living on the Costa Del Sol who are going to get hit because they stayed at home to bring up children.
That wont work tim - such women *will* qualify for a British State Pension.
David Cameron and the Queen are to attend the Commonwealth Summit in Colombo later this year. What a weak decision from a very weak Prime Minister. I really thought that the UK would follow Canada's lead in boycotting the Summit.
I know Dr Liam Fox is a pal of the alledged war criminal Mahendra Rajapakse but does that suprise anyone here knowing the type of human being that Liam Fox is - however I really thought David Cameron would be in a different league to Dr Fox but alas...
Anyway, a terrible decision taken behalf of the UK.
The Islington Lab leader is running to be selected in Hornsey. And after failing to be shortlisted in Deptford, Mandy Richards has already declared for Hornsey. She could be the new Dora
"Recently on Newsnight Scotland, Professor John Curtice informed us that there is no consistent poll evidence that suggests Scottish voters have markedly different views on Europe from those in the rest of the UK. "
WATO saying that this is the 2016 pension change just highlighting the foreign / abroad element. Webb's defence is that it's this segment that is going up, and is about contributions not nationality or location.
I've just watched Webb being interviwed and am more confused than before he started, is this just a twist on the 2016 changes being fed out to the media after the Kipper surge?
Ministers have signalled a curb on people living abroad who are able to claim UK state pensions through their British spouses. Pensions Minister Steve Webb said there are 220,000 people living outside the UK who receive some form of state pension based solely on their spouse's British work history
And
Robin Brant @robindbrant 37m pensions minister steve webb tells BBC on 'foreign pension cut' that the change on MPA will affect UK wives as equally as foreign wives.
Sounds like another saving that costs money, doesn't it? The government shouldn't be discouraging couples who aren't working any more from moving to places with empty houses and a lower cost of living.
I cant say I've come across him before. It should be an interesting selection, it's going to be June? If i were Prem I'd take the photo from West Ham down
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 8th June Bristol Souyth 8th June Manchester Withington 8th June Bury North 22nd June Calder Valley 22nd June Cardiff North 22nd June Halesowen and Rowley Regis 22nd June South Basildon & East Thurrock 22nd June Hornsey & Wood Green 23rd June Sheffield Hallam 24th June Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 30th June Stourbridge 6th July Colne Valley 6th July Nuneaton 6th July Hendon 7th July Cardiff Central 13th July Kingswood 13th July Crawley 14th July Rugby 14th July Brighton Pavillion 20th July
+ there are others running right now. I don't know all details. But they should be late May-early June given they have closed nominations-done shortlist.
I cant say I've come across him before. It should be an interesting selection, it's going to be June? If i were Prem I'd take the photo from West Ham down
It appears it's all nonsense, you could sell any story along the same lines.
"The 111 NHS phone system is so crap it will stop foreigners calling ambulances and save £410 million a year"
"West coast mainline franchise has been abandoned and foreigners with shares in rail companies will be hit"
Ah, OK, sounds sensible. I mean, it's better to make a bunch of numbers to pretend you're doing harmful stuff to pander to UKIP than to actually do harmful stuff to pander to UKIP.
The parliamentary seat is Witney but it is really West Oxon DC by another name. Witney is 6 DC wards out of 49 West Oxon in all and is atypical of the constituency by being lower middle class over spill in the main- most of the snobby villages look down on Witney although they like the shops and cinema etc.
As a Chipping Norton resident, Witney is despised throughout WODC as they spend disproportionately more on Witney than any of the other towns & villages in their area. Nothing to do with snobbery, just the plain fact that WODC have their head so far up their fundament they ignore 90% of their area.
In response to the welcome praise from Mr. Palmer (and also because my computer's creaking like a grandma's knees) I'm delighted to announce that Journey to Altmortis now out.
Right now it's only up at Smashwords (https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/313503) but it'll be distributed from there to numerous other retailers. I'll have to do the Amazon version separately, and will get on that after I post this.
The price tag is $2.99, but if you use (Smashwords only) the code XK87G that'll be cut to $1.02. The code will expire on 14 May.
[NB I probably won't reply to any posts for a while because I've got the Amazon formatting to do, and then updating my twitter, blog, website. *collapses*].
Even among professional people of my parents' generation, a large number didn't go to university. Up till 1970 or so, solicitors and accountants were more likely to start articles directly on leaving school, rather than entering as graduates.
Cameron's arrogance is becoming a widespread meme.
It's difficult to vote for someone you know hates 'people like you'.
Snobbery is racism against people who look like you.
Well said, I'm heartedly sick of hearing the out and out inverse snobbery on here re anyone who isn't from a poster's own world. And blaming the whole of HMG's ills on where someone went to school or if they eat *kitchen suppers*. I mean FFS. How primary school is that?
Bitching about others using language they'd be up in arms about if applied to themselves - and very self-righteous with it. It's like reading The Guardian.
Class war is the most small-minded one I can think of. And stirred up by the Left over decades - any Righty playing their game is naive fodder.
Is simply a fact that UKIP polls most strongly among male over 65's who left school at 16.
That's not a description of "life's losers", probably more a case of "victims of the secondary modern system which UKIP want to reintroduce"
Balls/ - not many over 65s had the opportunity to stay on to take A levels, or go on to tertiary education regardless of schooling.
Not surprising when we wrote off 80% of the population at eleven is it.
So we changed the system to comprehensive and wrote off 100% (unless you could go to a private school)
I went to comprehensive schools and am a Specialist in a teaching hospital, my siblings did also and are respectively an LSE educated economist and an electronic engineer with Cambridge PhD.
Pity we have such stunted lives, if we had gone to private schools we would be demi-gods by now!
OT, for people who aren't up-to-date with this: There's a by-election tomorrow in South Carolina 1, with Mark Sanford, inspiration for the euphemism "hiking the Appalachian trail", up against Stephen Colbert's sister. Normally this would be an easy Republican hold, but Sanford has been having some problems with news coming out about him trespassing at his ex-wife's house. Some Republicans have pulled their support, although on the plus side Sanford has been endorsed by Larry Flynt.
'I've just watched Webb being interviwed and am more confused than before he started, is this just a twist on the 2016 changes being fed out to the media after the Kipper surge?'
Wow,your so easily confused,bet you even thought Webb was a Tory. Amazing though they knocked out a policy over the weekend.
They really do hate people different to themselves.
What's worse is that its a petulant, nasty, insecure hatred.
There was a time when people born to privilege showed a little class and understood that concepts such as service and loyalty were two way.
I think you are misinterpreting this.
You've argued yourself that UKIP voters are disproportionately drawn from those who are under most pressure from immigration (wage pressure), offshoring (job losses) and economic policy (house prices, confiscation of savings).
Is it unreasonable to say that they are the people who have lost out most from globalisation & that this is a key driver of their decision to vote against all the establishment parties?
On this basis, they really are "life's losers" - and I suspect it was this definition [which is useful] that was being used rather than just calling them "Losers".
So we changed the system to comprehensive and wrote off 100% (unless you could go to a private school)
I went to comprehensive schools and am a Specialist in a teaching hospital, my siblings did also and are respectively an LSE educated economist and an electronic engineer with Cambridge PhD.
Pity we have such stunted lives, if we had gone to private schools we would be demi-gods by now!
Fair point, Mr Socks. But is it not also true that the 80% who didn't go to grammar (i.e. went to Secondary Moderns) were not written off either, and if they were, perhaps the better solution would be to improve the status of secondary moderns, rather than abolish grammar schools.
@Mr.3% tim - Well, he could hardly look up, could he, given my small but perfectly formed stature. But we Oxonian PPE Firsts do stick together. Pity he was only at Brasenose though. I mean Brasenose!!
Comments
Be warned. Smithson (Oxford, Magdalen) is in the habit of randomly smiting those incurring his disfavour.
The UKIP crowd aren't going to get anything from economic growth apart from 'London House Prices Soar' media headlines and increased numbers of economic migrants.
Whatever happens to the economy the UKIP crowd is going to get bigger and angrier.
The fundamental consequences of economic globalisation cause this with governments pretty much powerless.
What will hurt the Conservatives though is that the Cameroons clearly don't care about the adverse effects globalisation has on some on people. Even worse they seem to relish that they are themselves getting richer at the expense of those with less privileged backgrounds.
Also, I've taken 11/4 on UKIP gaining at least one seat. Now down to 2.6/1 - still value IMO
The thing that kept that in the news was the seniority of his position and the failure of the Lib Dems to investigate the original complaints - compounded by, to put it kindly "an evolving narrative" of "who knew what when."
The exposure of the Lib Dems to the sort of scrutiny the Conservative and Labour parties have faced for decades was however entertaining.
Please Sir! It's not fair sir!
Surely the 4/7 via ladbrokes on UKIP outpolling the tories in the Euros is now a banker?
It may be that we've reached a watershed, where strong demand from the rest of the world starts to offset weak demand from the EU. The government should get lucky with oil production this year, too.
No more fuel duty increases and a cut in green subsidies built into energy prices.
The government should do what it can to incentivise LG to freeze Council tax.
The above inflation increases we have seen for every government service from licences to parking must stop.
Transportation costs, specifically for trains and buses, must be kept below inflation.
Achieving these things and keeping borrowing on a downward path will be challenging but the government needs to do what it can and be seen to do as much as it can to help those "hard working families" (I hate that cliche).
Unless de-selected (unlikely now), she would romp home as a Tory.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10038598/Scottish-wind-farms-paid-1-million-to-shut-down-one-day.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Spink
It indicated that although the trend was clear the pattern was rather more variable. He said:
"This is part of an ongoing story. In 2008, Britain exports of goods to the rest of the EU totalled £142bn. They slumped to £125bn in 2009, recovered to £142bn in 2010 and grew well in 2011, rising to £159bn. But last year they dropped again to £151bn, helping to explain 2012’s weak GDP growth.
Exports to the rest of the world, in contrast, fell by less in the crisis - dropping from £110bn to £103bn from 2008 to 2009 - but have been rising since: £124bn in 2010, £140bn in 2011 and £149bn last year.
It has been nip and tuck in recent months whether exports to the rest of the world are marginally higher or lower than those to the EU. In the latest three months, non-EU exports were ahead, and this is likely to be the shape of things to come."
My guess is that the change is being diminished by the Rotterdam effect which makes many of our car exports, for example, look like they are being exported to europe. Even taking that into account, however, our exporters have found breaking into previously neglected markets difficult and it has taken time. Some time ago I forecast by the time of any referendum in 2017 EU exports would only be 40% of our overall. We are going to have to move a bit faster to achieve this.
Whereas if she remains in the blue team, she might carry some weight (but not much) within the party, either if the Tories form a minority governmentm but more so should the party lose and a more right-wing leadership to replace Cameron (as would unquestionably be the case).
Corruption problem in Scotland...
Malc G
Wonderful lift clip - I understood it all perfectly without the need for subtitles.
"Italy's economy will shrink by 1.4% this year, a much sharper contraction than previously forecast, according to the national statistic agency."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22424568#?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
It didn't feel right!
So the UKIP crowd aren't going to benefit from wage inflation and their standard of living will fall. Meanwhile the government can't do anything about economic migrants from eastern and southern Europe.
If the government wanted to do something symbolic which would at least make the UKIP crowd feel the pain was being shared then the obvious thing is a mansion tax.
Aka Ford workers being made redundant in a recession and leaving for the seaside
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320002/How-rise-white-flight-areas-dominated-ethnic-minorities-creating-segregated-UK.html
How'd you figure that out?
It would be four people wouldn't it?
Wouldn't they just be racists leaving London and improving education standards?
You should read the hedgehogs and foxes article by Douglas Murray, it shows where your old fashioned style of politics has gone wrong
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323372504578464704081223308.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/reported-israeli-airstrikes-in-syria-could-accelerate-us-decision-making/2013/05/05/72c6eafc-b5c2-11e2-92f3-f291801936b8_story.html
For those who care to read it, it all makes sense apart from one statement. Confidence in the Free Syrian Army is growing because they have shown greater integration in a number of areas such as the Southern Sector opposite Jordan. They have also clearly used tactical and intelligence advice provided by the US.
In reality, however, they have been under the cosh in the areas around the cities that represent the strategic line that Assad must hold. The heavy supply of Russian and Iranian material and the infusion of thousands of Iranian and Hizbollah troops has assisted Assads forces plenty. To that end, if the rebels continue to take pressure the West, so long calling for Bashar's exit and playing a tinkering game of intervention, will get a serious strategic reversal if Assad holds on (though its unlikely he will) that Russia and Iran will not forget.
When i mentioned it on here I had people telling me it was the right price! Some people will argue about anything!
No referendum on Lisbon.
Gay marriage.
No tax breaks for marriage.
Omnishambles budget.
Tax rises.
Considering Dorries working-class origins, her strong opposition to abortion and her being patronised/insulted by Cameron, I think she would be a perfect fit for UKIP.
I completely disagree and will vote UKIP.
Intellectual marxist snobbery will work in the same way for Labour as the Old Etonian chumocracy has for the Conservatives.
But keep dividing people into sub samples of data if you think thats the way to win voters over
"Foreigner pension crackdown will be 'bureaucratic nightmare'
Plans to close the loophole that allows hundreds of thousands of foreigners to receive UK state pensions will be an expensive "bureaucratic nightmare" that could cost as much as it saves, experts warn."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10039782/Foreigner-pension-crackdown-will-be-bureaucratic-nightmare.html
Tho this time we can lay the blame at the door of the Lib Dems....
You too can take part in the Telegraph's 'Should we have an EU referendum' voodoo poll:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10033306/Boris-Johnson-laws-would-ram-home-message-on-EU-referendum.html
No peeking!
If this is the case then UKIP has by far the best prospects of any alternative of breaking into the Westminster big time."
http://ukipian.com/2013/05/06/the-spectacular-rise-of-ukip/
"My granddad didn't fight the second world war for a bunch of Poles'" Erm...I think you'll find he did
Are there any other collegiate universities I haven't covered?
I generally mention my college (Christ Church) only if asked; and tend only to be asked by other Oxford alumni. I think part of the reason they ask is to make sure that when a person says they went to Oxford, they didn't actually go to Oxford Brookes (they're well known for claiming to have gone to Oxford Uni)
Also, @MikeSmithson, Christ Church is superb. Recent notable successes for my alma mater include some of the expenses highlights (moat cleaning and buying horseshit, by Hogg and HeathcoatAmory), and we've had a Louise Mensch, a Mehdi Hasan and a James Delingpole. And we're Hogwarts!
"They're actually doing it. Tory right said EU referendum speech would sate them. 5 months later, they want more. They're just majestic."
'Bonkers' would have been my adjective of choice.....
That site's thread is a mix of angst and ignorance. I had wondered if someone was deliberately stirring the sh!t.
The proposal is basically giving them 1,000£ for each year they served before Good Friday Agreement and 600£ for each year after (maximum is 35,000).
Some are not happy about the proposal weighting more for councillors elected before the Agreement.
'Intellectual marxist snobbery will work in the same way for Labour'
Worked well last week. .
Ooer
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/10/18/where-well-off-chinese-are-looking-to-immigrate/
1. Ian Duncan
2. Belinda Don
3. Nosheena Mobarik
4. Jamie Gardiner
5. Iain McGill
6. Stuart McIntyre
So Ian Duncan likely to be a MEP in 12 months time. The rest don't have to notice their employers their unavailability from June 2014.
For example, does UKIP have any ex-Oxbridge voters - perhaps not Magdalen but maybe Brasenose?
David Cameron and the Queen are to attend the Commonwealth Summit in Colombo later this year. What a weak decision from a very weak Prime Minister. I really thought that the UK would follow Canada's lead in boycotting the Summit.
I know Dr Liam Fox is a pal of the alledged war criminal Mahendra Rajapakse but does that suprise anyone here knowing the type of human being that Liam Fox is - however I really thought David Cameron would be in a different league to Dr Fox but alas...
Anyway, a terrible decision taken behalf of the UK.
http://www.channel4.com/news/cameron-under-fire-over-decision-to-attend-sri-lanka-summit
The Islington Lab leader is running to be selected in Hornsey. And after failing to be shortlisted in Deptford, Mandy Richards has already declared for Hornsey. She could be the new Dora
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/letters/britishness-fuelled-rise-of-ukip.21001639
They should encourage Barbara to apply!
After failing in Sunderland South & Houghton, Wigan, Stockton North last time, I believe Barbara has called her day forever!
Do you know Prem Goyal ? He's another one running for Bermondsey selection
http://www.premgoyal.com
are the husband of these foreign women dead or still alive?are they suggesting to take away surviving spouses' pension or another allowance?
I cant say I've come across him before. It should be an interesting selection, it's going to be June? If i were Prem I'd take the photo from West Ham down
Selection June 8
June-July are full months
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 8th June
Bristol Souyth 8th June
Manchester Withington 8th June
Bury North 22nd June
Calder Valley 22nd June
Cardiff North 22nd June
Halesowen and Rowley Regis 22nd June
South Basildon & East Thurrock 22nd June
Hornsey & Wood Green 23rd June
Sheffield Hallam 24th June
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 30th June
Stourbridge 6th July
Colne Valley 6th July
Nuneaton 6th July
Hendon 7th July
Cardiff Central 13th July
Kingswood 13th July
Crawley 14th July
Rugby 14th July
Brighton Pavillion 20th July
+ there are others running right now. I don't know all details. But they should be late May-early June given they have closed nominations-done shortlist.
Right now it's only up at Smashwords (https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/313503) but it'll be distributed from there to numerous other retailers. I'll have to do the Amazon version separately, and will get on that after I post this.
The price tag is $2.99, but if you use (Smashwords only) the code XK87G that'll be cut to $1.02. The code will expire on 14 May.
[NB I probably won't reply to any posts for a while because I've got the Amazon formatting to do, and then updating my twitter, blog, website. *collapses*].
Bitching about others using language they'd be up in arms about if applied to themselves - and very self-righteous with it. It's like reading The Guardian.
Class war is the most small-minded one I can think of. And stirred up by the Left over decades - any Righty playing their game is naive fodder.
Pity we have such stunted lives, if we had gone to private schools we would be demi-gods by now!
PPP has Sanford up but only by 1%.
Ministers are set to demand that food manufacturers, cafes and supermarkets reduce the portion size of items high in saturated fat, such as biscuits, doughnuts, milky coffees and cakes.
'I've just watched Webb being interviwed and am more confused than before he started, is this just a twist on the 2016 changes being fed out to the media after the Kipper surge?'
Wow,your so easily confused,bet you even thought Webb was a Tory.
Amazing though they knocked out a policy over the weekend.
You've argued yourself that UKIP voters are disproportionately drawn from those who are under most pressure from immigration (wage pressure), offshoring (job losses) and economic policy (house prices, confiscation of savings).
Is it unreasonable to say that they are the people who have lost out most from globalisation & that this is a key driver of their decision to vote against all the establishment parties?
On this basis, they really are "life's losers" - and I suspect it was this definition [which is useful] that was being used rather than just calling them "Losers".
Re-announcing policy - who ever could they have got that idea from?
Amen brother.