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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nadine could do Cameron a lot of damage if she switched to

SystemSystem Posts: 11,916
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nadine could do Cameron a lot of damage if she switched to Ukip

In 2008 the county council in Bedfordshire was abolished so it wasn’t one of the traditional shire counties where there was voting last Thursday.

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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    I guess there are several things we need to consider, firstly what is her motivation? does she need the cash that being an mp brings? Can she earn a good living elsewhere?

    Is there really any policy differences between her and the leadership or is it just presentation?

    Does she have a future in a post Cameron Tory party ? If she jumps now there is no way back
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,368
    Obviously they should let her back - they should never have kicked her out in the first place.

    More broadly, to do well under FPTP you need a leader who's clear on where they want to take the party, preferably somewhere where the voters want to go, but the party itself needs to be a big tent, because in itself the leader's direction isn't going to appeal to enough voters.

    Cameron has somehow contrived to do the opposite, where his own messaging is an incoherent mess of centrist decontamination and right-wing pandering, but people like Dorries at the fringes get belittled and shoved out. It's nuts. He gives people outside his circle concessions, which cost him credibility, when he should be showing them respect, which is free.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,368

    I guess there are several things we need to consider, firstly what is her motivation? does she need the cash that being an mp brings? Can she earn a good living elsewhere?

    Is there really any policy differences between her and the leadership or is it just presentation?

    Does she have a future in a post Cameron Tory party ? If she jumps now there is no way back

    Call me petty, but if I was her I'd jump just for revenge.

    It seems like a no-brainer. Even if she gets reselected she's never going to get promoted. She obviously likes the attention, and she'd get loads. Where's the downside? She could even re-rat back to the Tories if they changed in a way she liked; It would be a great symbol for a post-Cameron leader to show they'd reconnected with the base.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2013
    This 6 month suspension is disproportionate and now looks petty & vindictive - but it's in the hands of the Whips, not Cameron surely? And the Chief Whip is........Sir George Young, Eton & Christ Church....PPE.....

    Edit - worth recalling what Dorries claimed at the time:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/27/nadine-dorries-rebuild-bridges-tory-whip?CMP=twt_fd
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Nadine is a booliak;
    UKIP is full of booliaks;
    The voters will not be so booliakterous as to re-elect her if she stands for UKIP;
    She won't join UKIP anyway.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @MarkSenior was confident yesterday that there would be no "media witch hunt" of Nigel Evans as these only happen to blameless saintly Lib Dems - so far, only the Telegraph has discovered a complaint - which was investigated by the Whips:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10039340/Nigel-Evans-Deputy-Speaker-accused-of-rape-was-interviewed-four-years-ago-about-inappropriate-sexual-behaviour.html

    And the Mirror spotted he was wearing a bit of slap at yesterday's Presser:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-evans-arrested-rape-allegations-1871879
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting analysis in the FT of the divergence in economic activity between London and rUK:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f249e08-b58a-11e2-850d-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2SUE4uxob

    Cranes on the skyline have long been viewed as an indicator of recovery, and the huge concentration of large building projects in London reveals the gap between confidence in the capital and pessimism about prospects beyond the M25.

    Data from an official register held by the Health and Safety Executive show that more than 5,400 tower cranes have been erected in Britain since March 2010, and that six in 10 of them went up in London – home to only one in eight of the population. London, the southeast and the east of England accounted for eight in 10 of the total.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @frasernelson: Charles Moore's Thatcher biography is no1 with the Guardian readers (pic). All is right with the world. http://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/331200360708444161/photo/1
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,456
    Scott_P said:

    @frasernelson: Charles Moore's Thatcher biography is no1 with the Guardian readers (pic). All is right with the world. http://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/331200360708444161/photo/1

    Probably planning a bonfire
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Peter Kellner on Today - UKIP more direct threat to Tories, than Labour or Lib Dems - but also mops up a lot of former Tory to Labour switchers who now go to UKIP and formerly would have gone to Labour - Tory>Labour switching now well down on historical levels.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    'Recent opinion polls show Mr Hollande's approval rating among the public has fallen to about 25%.
    This is the biggest slump for any French president in the past 50 years."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22423242

    But 10 months ago:

    "The Labour Party leader said he and France's Socialist president agree that getting Europe growing again is the top priority in tackling the financial crisis.
    Miliband says he and Hollande fully agree that "we can't tackle the issues we face in relation to the financial markets and austerity unless we get a Europe that is growing again."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/9423448/Ed-Miliband-welcomed-by-Francois-Hollande-on-Elysee-Palace-steps.html
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    I've no doubt she'd retain the seat if she stood for UKIP.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    edited May 2013
    @Scott_P

    Typical Guardianistas to over pay for something. Must be the perfumed, perforated, absorbent paper edition for them.

    WH Smith had it at £20 IRC. Amazon at £15.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    O/T, but according to "Pimpernel" on Vote 2012, UKIP topped the poll in Sittingbourne & Sheppey. So, I think that makes six constituencies that were "won" by UKIP.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    @Andy_JS noticed this yesterday morning.

    Election Candidate Party Votes %
    Laura Price Labour & Co-operative 756 31% Elected
    James Firth Robertshaw UKIP 746 31% Not elected
    David Harvey Conservative 697 29% Not elected
    Freddie Peppiatt Green 132 5% Not elected
    David Allen Dunmur Liberal Democrat 85 4% Not elected

    http://mycouncil.oxfordshire.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=117

    UKIP almost took Whitney South only 10 below the winning Labour-Co-Op Candidate - The Tory was third. PODCWAS.

    How many of the councils publish these stats?

    Num. ballot papers issued 1856
    Number of ballot papers rejected 7
    Number of postal votes sent 804
    Number of postal votes returned 568
    Turnout 22%
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Obviously they should let her back - they should never have kicked her out in the first place.

    More broadly, to do well under FPTP you need a leader who's clear on where they want to take the party, preferably somewhere where the voters want to go, but the party itself needs to be a big tent, because in itself the leader's direction isn't going to appeal to enough voters.

    Cameron has somehow contrived to do the opposite, where his own messaging is an incoherent mess of centrist decontamination and right-wing pandering, but people like Dorries at the fringes get belittled and shoved out. It's nuts. He gives people outside his circle concessions, which cost him credibility, when he should be showing them respect, which is free.

    Cameron certainly is incoherent in his policies, but we do have to allow that he is trying to keep a coalition together that runs the spectrum from Vince cable to Dan Hannan.

    Not only should he have Nadine back in the party, he should give her a role with a public face. That would be much more effective than a referendum referendum in showing that he listens.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    The other Witney Seat:

    Election Candidate Party Votes %
    Simon James Hoare Conservative 1230 49% Elected
    Erika Barnby UKIP 629 25% Not elected
    Calvert Charles McGibbon Labour 351 14% Not elected
    Maurice Fantato Green 175 7% Not elected
    Gillian Elizabeth Workman Liberal Democrat 138 5% Not elected

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    Supposition upon supposition. Nadine Dorries joins UKIP, resigns as MP, fights resulting by-election and wins.
    Several more Tory MP's decide to join her.
    Does that leave Cameron moving to the right or more dependent upon LibDem support?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    The problem I see is how does Cameron let her back in now without looking like he is panicking about her possibly defecting? It could look very weak at the moment. The smart thing to do would have been to sort this out before the locals but it is too late for that.

    I think it is also worth remembering that she not only went off when Parliament was sitting but had been incredibly rude about Cameron personally on any number of occasions before that. In fairness to her I think she has largely stopped that and has kept a relatively low profile in recent months. TBH I had forgotten she was still suspended.

    The tories need to find a formula that she is willing to work with which makes Cameron look reasonably strong on this. It is not going to be easy to meet all those criteria.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    How about Nadine shuts up until June 2015 thus minimising the chances of another terrible Labour govt ?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TGOHF said:
    "The experience of President Hollande is a salutary lesson for those who think the Left has the solutions when it is more often the creator of the problem.

    At least the French Socialists, who are in office for the first time in 20 years, can legitimately claim they were not around when the economic mistakes were being made.

    Labour, by contrast, was not only at the scene of the crime, but its perpetrator. It should not be allowed to forget it."
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    Oxfordshire C C have the most detailed coverage of the election results I have accessed so far.

    It is one of the few councils which publishes postal votes issued and used. It also shows how many votes were rejected with breakdown of reasons.

    It would be interesting to look at the correlations of postal votes and wining candidates amongst other things. But finding the information is another matter.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815

    Obviously they should let her back - they should never have kicked her out in the first place.

    More broadly, to do well under FPTP you need a leader who's clear on where they want to take the party, preferably somewhere where the voters want to go, but the party itself needs to be a big tent, because in itself the leader's direction isn't going to appeal to enough voters.

    Cameron has somehow contrived to do the opposite, where his own messaging is an incoherent mess of centrist decontamination and right-wing pandering, but people like Dorries at the fringes get belittled and shoved out. It's nuts. He gives people outside his circle concessions, which cost him credibility, when he should be showing them respect, which is free.

    Very well put.

    Respect is vital when dealing with people, especially with people different to you.

    But I don't think that Cameron has that respect for others, his underlying arrogance shows too often. Similarly Cameron's insecurity makes him lose respect for himself when he fawns over someone he does admire.

    If Nadine blames her persecution on Cameron not having respect for the working class or women then it hits Cameron on two vulnerable spots.

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    TGOHF said:

    How about Nadine shuts up until June 2015 thus minimising the chances of another terrible Labour govt ?

    I think the chances of another Labour government would be rather more reduced if Cameron, Osborne, Letwin, Maude and Hunt shut up until June 2015 than if Nadine does so.

    Its the chumocracy which is toxic not the provincial prolewoman.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,299
    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    tim said:

    And this bloke needs some serious help

    "TOP Tories were yesterday accused of being “contemptuous” towards UKIP voters — as Chancellor George Osborne tweeted a snap of CLOWNS in an apparent dig."

    @Sun_Politics: Tories blasted over UKIP contempt
    http://t.co/NVfCDFkGr2

    I doubt Catbert personally went and look for Clown photos, the technology would be beyond him. More likely he has an idiot Spad to offend people for him.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438

    Peter Kellner on Today - UKIP more direct threat to Tories, than Labour or Lib Dems - but also mops up a lot of former Tory to Labour switchers who now go to UKIP and formerly would have gone to Labour - Tory>Labour switching now well down on historical levels.

    I think that's right, but also the reason why there's so little swingback so far. That type of switcher is easily won back. The "I am not prepared to work with the Tories" former LibDems who make up most of Labour's actual switchers are a different type of voter and will IMO be much harder to win back.

    On topic, Nadine's recent comment that she is and remains a Conservative seems to rule out a quick switch, and rather to prepare the ground for a return. Like Edmund I think she'd be better off out - more fun, more influence, more attention, probably more money too in the long run - but she may not see it that way. It'll be surprising if no MP can resist the lure, though.

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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning. Here is a marvelous but terrifying new invention at work: 3D printing. You feed your design and plastic in, and voila, out comes a workable handgun.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22421185

    Perhaps we can feed in patterns of Nadine into such a machine and have replica Nadines all over parliament. Only Joking! But talk about brave new world in the making.............?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617

    Interesting analysis in the FT of the divergence in economic activity between London and rUK:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f249e08-b58a-11e2-850d-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2SUE4uxob

    Cranes on the skyline have long been viewed as an indicator of recovery, and the huge concentration of large building projects in London reveals the gap between confidence in the capital and pessimism about prospects beyond the M25.

    Data from an official register held by the Health and Safety Executive show that more than 5,400 tower cranes have been erected in Britain since March 2010, and that six in 10 of them went up in London – home to only one in eight of the population. London, the southeast and the east of England accounted for eight in 10 of the total.

    No doubt Avery will be along to tell us why the rest of the country will vote Blue because the SE is playing house inflation. The SE Blues haven't worked out yet that the majority of votes sit outside their region and for everyone else there's still a recession.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    edited May 2013
    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.

    Nah Fat Bastard's Salmond
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,246
    Nadine is a classic LBJ tent pissing problem. Weird there is any debate about this.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Good morning, everyone.

    Indeed, Mr. K. It's an interesting but also somewhat disturbing development. The self-described crypto-anarchist has at least made it plain what some will end up using the technology for.

    Consider if 3D printers had been commonplace in August 2011 during the London looting. We might well have had gangs of scum sending one another not just times and places through social media but designs for varying weapons. [I recognise that the majority of the looters were opportunistic airheads rather than violent thugs, but the point stands, particularly given how the police pussyfooted about for the first 2-3 days].
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    A senior Downing Street aide is also said to have called UKIP “life’s losers”.


    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4916750/george-osborne-clown-tweet.html#ixzz2SUpbUkGr

    They really do hate people different to themselves.

    What's worse is that its a petulant, nasty, insecure hatred.

    There was a time when people born to privilege showed a little class and understood that concepts such as service and loyalty were two way.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216



    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.

    Nah Fat Bastard's Salmond
    "Sloppy Salmond" in the Sun:

    Sloppy Alex Salmond given a right pounding

    http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/4916936/Sloppy-Alex-Salmond-given-a-right-pounding.html
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    "It’s time to “Free the Mid-Bedfordshire One”

    When I saw this thread headline I thought it was a desperate plea from Mike Smithson to free himself from the shackles of onset senile Lib Demmery

    There have been rumours of OGH meandering around his Bedford garden singing "Go home to your eco houses and prepare for Coalition government" - Other reports indicate that Mike, whilst singing, is burying favourite hair pieces by the flower borders.

    Is Mike about to paint his home purple and start to half bake fruitcake - PBers should be warned !!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Jonathan

    "Nadine is a classic LBJ tent pissing problem .... "

    Do you mean lesbian-bi-gay pissing problem ? - What a golder shower gay Ukippers are !!
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,368
    tim said:

    tim said:

    And this bloke needs some serious help

    "TOP Tories were yesterday accused of being “contemptuous” towards UKIP voters — as Chancellor George Osborne tweeted a snap of CLOWNS in an apparent dig."

    @Sun_Politics: Tories blasted over UKIP contempt
    http://t.co/NVfCDFkGr2

    I doubt Catbert personally went and look for Clown photos, the technology would be beyond him. More likely he has an idiot Spad to offend people for him.
    The contempt these chums have for everyone outside their tiny circle is absolutely staggering, they just appear to believe they can take the piss out of their own party supporters who aren't men who went to a one of a handful of expensive schools.
    The funny thing about this is that when Labour tried this line of attack way back with that thing with the top hats it totally fell flat. But now it's turning out to be a serious vulnerability, with most of the fire coming from the right, not the left.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    "Diversity training " would only exacaberate the problem, as posh out of touch men were replaced by posh out of touch women. The sort of privileged people who complain about other people's "privilege."

    That's a revealing quote about "life's losers.". There are plenty of upper/ upper middle class people who mix easily with people from poor backgrounds, like Lord Salisbury, the Duke of Devonshire, Douglas Hurd and Boris Johnson, but they don't seem well represented in government.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,368
    JackW said:

    @Jonathan

    "Nadine is a classic LBJ tent pissing problem .... "

    Do you mean lesbian-bi-gay pissing problem ? - What a golder shower gay Ukippers are !!

    J not G, it stands for Lesbian-Bi-Jacobite. We know what you people get up to.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    "A divide has opened in British politics. It is not between north and south, or left and right, but between hedgehogs and foxes." So opens an article by Douglas Murray, all about the recent rise of UKIP.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323372504578464704081223308.html?mod=WSJUK_hpp_sections_opinion

    Mind you, I think of UKIP and kippers as smart leopards, rather than hedgehogs.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681



    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.

    Nah Fat Bastard's Salmond
    Too far Alan
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    A senior Downing Street aide is also said to have called UKIP “life’s losers”.

    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4916750/george-osborne-clown-tweet.html

    I think origin for that quote is probably James Forsyth in The Mail:

    "The Conservatives know that to survive they have to win back these voters. So out goes the old approach of rubbishing UKIP and their supporters. Which is why Cameron was wheeled out to retract his infamous dismissal of UKIP as ‘fruitcakes, loonies and closest racists, mostly’.
    ‘It is not easy to admit you’re wrong. But it needed to be done,’ one member of the Conservative leadership observed afterwards.

    But this shift can’t be just for the cameras. Too many people in Downing Street sneer at UKIP voters, mocking them for their simplistic world view. One senior member of the operation even calls them ‘life’s losers’. It’s an attitude that is as arrogant as it is self-defeating.
    The Cameroons need to grasp that you can’t blame the voter. It’ll take more than Cameron minding his Ps and Qs to bring back these lost legions."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2319644/Even-Tories-admit-Dave-needed-kick-ballots.html
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,248
    Nadine was suspended for a whole lot more than the I'm a Celebrity stuff. It was obvious then she would have to spend a good while in the cold before being allowed back. And to be fair to her, she has been far more circumspect in her remarks. So, my take is she'll be given the whip back quietly, not immediately and because of UKIP's success, but later in the summer or early autuumn.

    In Mr Lympe-Pole's absence, it is my solemn duty to report that the Good News is still coming

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22423167

    Now THAT'S what will see of the Kippers in 2015 and Ed too.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    E I T, Labour's efforts were as subtle as a kick in the groin. Old-fashioned class conflict resonates with relatively few people these days. Most people are quite prepared to distinguish between rich people who make themselves agreeable (like Edward Timson) and those who are I'll-mannered.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681



    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.

    Nah Fat Bastard's Salmond
    "Sloppy Salmond" in the Sun:

    Sloppy Alex Salmond given a right pounding

    http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/4916936/Sloppy-Alex-Salmond-given-a-right-pounding.html
    These people obviously never watch or listen to First Ministers Questions. It is excruciating to see him swat them every week, Lamont is incoherent and incapable of asking a question properly and the Tory is just a joke full stop.
    Obviously read this of a feed somewhere.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    malcolmg said:



    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.

    Nah Fat Bastard's Salmond
    Too far Alan
    malc FB is one of Scotland's most famous sons, you can't have James Bond for obvious reasons !

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Edmundintokyo

    "J not G, it stands for Lesbian-Bi-Jacobite. We know what you people get up to."

    LOL !!!!

    Ok .... I'll own up. As the weather is so fine I'm about to patrol the estate in my tartan and leopard skin thong whilst listening to a compilation of the Pet Shop Boys and my favourite George Michael song - Come Outside .... How could I possibly stoop so low !!
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,248
    edited May 2013
    @Mr.3% tim - Well, he could hardly look up, could he, given my small but perfectly formed stature. But we Oxonian PPE Firsts do stick together. Pity he was only at Brasenose though. I mean Brasenose!!
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681

    malcolmg said:



    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.

    Nah Fat Bastard's Salmond
    Too far Alan
    malc FB is one of Scotland's most famous sons, you can't have James Bond for obvious reasons !

    Alan, if you have not seen this it is brilliant........... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAz_UvnUeuU
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @JohnO

    Is Hersham's finest posting from some exotic location or are you still amidst the empty bolly bottles of victory celebrations from Thursday ?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    JohnO said:


    In Mr Lympe-Pole's absence, it is my solemn duty to report that the Good News is still coming

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22423167

    Now THAT'S what will see of the Kippers in 2015 and Ed too.

    Its so much easier pretending everything is going to be alright in the end rather than looking at the fundamentals.

    Economic growth only works if the benefits are shared among the population not concentrated among the top 10%.

    But you're not listening are you and that's because you don't want to listen.

    Though why any Conservative wants to be in government after 2015 rather than let the Eds deal with what's coming is beyond me.
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    MBoyMBoy Posts: 104

    @MarkSenior was confident yesterday that there would be no "media witch hunt" of Nigel Evans as these only happen to blameless saintly Lib Dems - so far, only the Telegraph has discovered a complaint - which was investigated by the Whips:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10039340/Nigel-Evans-Deputy-Speaker-accused-of-rape-was-interviewed-four-years-ago-about-inappropriate-sexual-behaviour.html

    Which backs up Mark's point exactly. Where is the feeding frenzy? Oh Yeh, there isn't a Lib Dem election on...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    I hadn't realized Dorries had not had the whip restored yet. I know she causes plenty of 'friendly' fire, but really it would be best to bring her back into the fold a little by now.

    Still, maybe they're worried they'll offer to restore the whip and then she'll defect, so she can say they offered it back and she told those Etonian fakes running the Tories to stuff it.

    They're worried and paranoid enough to believe that.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,248
    edited May 2013
    Matron has (wisely in view of past excursions) confined JohnO Major (not that John Major) to the dorm.

    Hersham is verily an electoral beacon to the entire civilized world. Our kipper-candidate who resides in Cobham (COBHAM, I tell ye) could muster only 13.9%.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Continuity IDS writes a disobliging article about Cameron.

    Wow, that has never happened before. Cameron is doomed. DOOMED I tell ye...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    JohnO said:


    In Mr Lympe-Pole's absence, it is my solemn duty to report that the Good News is still coming

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22423167

    Now THAT'S what will see of the Kippers in 2015 and Ed too.

    They'll do well (but maybe not to win an MP of their own, but certainly hurt the Tories) and win respectively, because you don't get a lot of credit for promising good growth and complete deficit elimination, and then finally getting anemic growth and a half done deficit reduction.

    Even if it is reasonable that the lofty aims have not been able to be achieved, I very much doubt floating voters will give a party the benefit of the doubt when they have suffered 5 years of pain with the promise of 5 more (still only 3 promises at the moment, but it's coming) - they'll take the easy option.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,248
    edited May 2013
    @AnotherRichard - I'll put you down as an 'undecided' in my updated canvass returns.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458

    JohnO said:


    In Mr Lympe-Pole's absence, it is my solemn duty to report that the Good News is still coming

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22423167

    Now THAT'S what will see of the Kippers in 2015 and Ed too.

    Though why any Conservative wants to be in government after 2015 rather than let the Eds deal with what's coming is beyond me.
    By that logic, they should have hoped for a LD-Lab coalition in 2010 too.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    tim said:

    Jonathan Isaby ‏@isaby
    A damning critique of Cameron by @TimMontgomerie in today's @TheTimes. His analysis is spot on. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3756946.ece

    "UKIP is Cameron’s Frankenstein monster
    The PM’s arrogance created this revolt of the grassroots. "

    Cameron's arrogance is becoming a widespread meme.

    It's difficult to vote for someone you know hates 'people like you'.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @JohnO - Excellent news. Where Hersham leads others will surely follow, if only by 2015.

    @tim - Frankenstein's monster eventually dies in the North Pole - Ski-jet for Mr Farage !!
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:



    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.

    Nah Fat Bastard's Salmond
    "Sloppy Salmond" in the Sun:

    Sloppy Alex Salmond given a right pounding

    http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/4916936/Sloppy-Alex-Salmond-given-a-right-pounding.html
    These people obviously never watch or listen to First Ministers Questions. It is excruciating to see him swat them every week, Lamont is incoherent and incapable of asking a question properly and the Tory is just a joke full stop.
    Obviously read this of a feed somewhere.
    Salmond is amazingly poor at FMQs. He never gives a straight answer , chortles smuggly at his own jokes , and makes factual errors on a weekly basis. Another eerie part of FMQs is that Sturgeon positions herself so that she can stare devotedly at Eck throughout , never moving from her frozen adoration.
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    At the time of Nadine's kangabollock munching, I thought she was out of order, running off during parliament, and whilst being paid by the taxpayer. I've softened to her since, though, as I like her views on the Tory leadership.
    Personally, I think a switch to UKIP would do her good, and would be good for UKIP as well, as it'd give them a voice in parliament, but also mean that Farage and Nuttall are not the only faces of the party.
    Having said that, people want an alternative to the 3 main parties, and UKIP can become that if they get the next few months right, but can yo really build a new party from the likes of Dorries?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    kle4 said:

    JohnO said:


    In Mr Lympe-Pole's absence, it is my solemn duty to report that the Good News is still coming

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22423167

    Now THAT'S what will see of the Kippers in 2015 and Ed too.

    Though why any Conservative wants to be in government after 2015 rather than let the Eds deal with what's coming is beyond me.
    By that logic, they should have hoped for a LD-Lab coalition in 2010 too.
    The problems of 2010 have just been postponed and as a consequence increased.

    Meanwhile fresh problems such as electricity generation will impact after 2015.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MBoy said:

    @MarkSenior was confident yesterday that there would be no "media witch hunt" of Nigel Evans as these only happen to blameless saintly Lib Dems - so far, only the Telegraph has discovered a complaint - which was investigated by the Whips:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10039340/Nigel-Evans-Deputy-Speaker-accused-of-rape-was-interviewed-four-years-ago-about-inappropriate-sexual-behaviour.html

    Which backs up Mark's point exactly. Where is the feeding frenzy? Oh Yeh, there isn't a Lib Dem election on...
    Hardly - Mark's point was that there would be no "witch hunt" because Evans is a Tory - here's the Mail, not reporting it either:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2319714/Nigel-Evans-Deputy-Speaker-denies-gay-rape-claims-released-bail.html?ico=news^headlines

    But if you yearn for Rennard stories, they've got one of those too;

    "He repeated the boast yesterday on Facebook, and took a pop at his detractors. He wrote: ‘Thanks to all friends for likes and comments.
    ‘I note that more of the people opposed to my continuing membership of the party are now leaving it themselves, others having done so previously.’
    His comments prompted a colleague to write that he was ‘ashamed’ and ‘disgusted’ to belong to the same party.
    Callum Leslie, a vice-president of the party’s youth wing in Scotland, challenged him saying: ‘I’m sure you’d like Alison Smith to leave the party too.
    ‘Don’t be smug in the face of such serious allegations.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320006/Out-campaigning-ahead-local-elections-Lib-Dem-peer-groping-inquiry.html

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Toodle pip PBers.

    I'm off to take Mrs Jack W for a sumptuous day out ..... Now, satnav for BurgerKing in Luton - I know how to show a gal a fine time !!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. Stopper, I think Dorries going to UKIP would harm the party rather than help it.

    Right now UKIP is the protest party. People can happily project their views onto the purples, and get a nice feeling from kicking the established parties.

    But if Dorries went to UKIP then that could cost them many leftwing votes. For a start, it'd mean UKIP had an MP, who would naturally get a lot of media attention. But the whole PUKIP [ahem, the Parliamentary UKIP] would be an ex-Conservative and a gaffe-prone one at that.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    @malcolmg

    Nice one malc. :-)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    DavidL said:


    The tories need to find a formula that she is willing to work with which makes Cameron look reasonably strong on this. It is not going to be easy to meet all those criteria.

    Alternatively, Cameron could let her defect - and have Nadine become the public face - and voice - of UKIP.

    Does Farage REALLY want that?

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    MBoy said:

    @MarkSenior was confident yesterday that there would be no "media witch hunt" of Nigel Evans as these only happen to blameless saintly Lib Dems - so far, only the Telegraph has discovered a complaint - which was investigated by the Whips:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10039340/Nigel-Evans-Deputy-Speaker-accused-of-rape-was-interviewed-four-years-ago-about-inappropriate-sexual-behaviour.html

    Which backs up Mark's point exactly. Where is the feeding frenzy? Oh Yeh, there isn't a Lib Dem election on...
    Hardly - Mark's point was that there would be no "witch hunt" because Evans is a Tory - here's the Mail, not reporting it either:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2319714/Nigel-Evans-Deputy-Speaker-denies-gay-rape-claims-released-bail.html?ico=news^headlines

    But if you yearn for Rennard stories, they've got one of those too;

    "He repeated the boast yesterday on Facebook, and took a pop at his detractors. He wrote: ‘Thanks to all friends for likes and comments.
    ‘I note that more of the people opposed to my continuing membership of the party are now leaving it themselves, others having done so previously.’
    His comments prompted a colleague to write that he was ‘ashamed’ and ‘disgusted’ to belong to the same party.
    Callum Leslie, a vice-president of the party’s youth wing in Scotland, challenged him saying: ‘I’m sure you’d like Alison Smith to leave the party too.
    ‘Don’t be smug in the face of such serious allegations.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320006/Out-campaigning-ahead-local-elections-Lib-Dem-peer-groping-inquiry.html

    Do you think the Conservative whips investigated the complaint against Nigel Evans thoroughly 4 years ago and do you know if Cameron was informed and if so took appropriate action ?

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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    tim said:

    tim said:

    And this bloke needs some serious help

    "TOP Tories were yesterday accused of being “contemptuous” towards UKIP voters — as Chancellor George Osborne tweeted a snap of CLOWNS in an apparent dig."

    @Sun_Politics: Tories blasted over UKIP contempt
    http://t.co/NVfCDFkGr2

    I doubt Catbert personally went and look for Clown photos, the technology would be beyond him. More likely he has an idiot Spad to offend people for him.
    The contempt these chums have for everyone outside their tiny circle is absolutely staggering, they just appear to believe they can take the piss out of their own party supporters who aren't men who went to a one of a handful of expensive schools.



    Got to say Tim for once I totally agree with you!

    Happy Bank Holiday!
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    JohnO said:

    Nadine was suspended for a whole lot more than the I'm a Celebrity stuff. It was obvious then she would have to spend a good while in the cold before being allowed back. And to be fair to her, she has been far more circumspect in her remarks. So, my take is she'll be given the whip back quietly, not immediately and because of UKIP's success, but later in the summer or early autuumn.

    In Mr Lympe-Pole's absence, it is my solemn duty to report that the Good News is still coming

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22423167

    Now THAT'S what will see of the Kippers in 2015 and Ed too.

    No, it won't.

    The Kippers will argue how much better off we would be outside the EU, and rightly so. Ukip are here to stay, get used to it.

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,248
    @tim. And STILL Labour could only manage a 3% lead in a real election.

    It's tragic. I'm inconsolable.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'So many examples building up now.'

    Even more puzzling why Labour did so badly last week.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    You Balliol lot get on my nerves. The term "nice Balliol man" is an oxymoron.
    JohnO said:

    @Mr.3% tim - Well, he could hardly look up, could he, given my small but perfectly formed stature. But we Oxonian PPE Firsts do stick together. Pity he was only at Brasenose though. I mean Brasenose!!

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,248
    edited May 2013
    @ourcurmudgeonlyhost

    Ah, but I am the exception as in some many instances albeit in an effortlessly superior manner.

    By the way, that Jo Grimond was a terrible sh1t, wasn't he? And Alan Beith too. And Roy Jenkins. Plus Robert MacClennan too. Yes, siree, LibDems = Balliol Nasty Party (BNP)
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JohnO said:

    Ah, but I am the exception as in some many instances albeit in an effortlessly superior manner.

    By the way, that Jo Grimond was a terrible sh1t, wasn't he? And Alan Beith too.

    The normal man suffers the occasional nightmare. JohnO is now having Kippermares nearly every night, poor fellow.

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Morris_Dancer

    It seems to me that people that rise up through the UKIP machine - Farage, James, Nuttall etc - are high performers. Defects from the Tory party... not so much.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. K, surely you mean "Visions of the UKIPalypse"?
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Mr. Stopper, I think Dorries going to UKIP would harm the party rather than help it.

    Right now UKIP is the protest party. People can happily project their views onto the purples, and get a nice feeling from kicking the established parties.

    But if Dorries went to UKIP then that could cost them many leftwing votes. For a start, it'd mean UKIP had an MP, who would naturally get a lot of media attention. But the whole PUKIP [ahem, the Parliamentary UKIP] would be an ex-Conservative and a gaffe-prone one at that.

    I am not sure I agree with that. If you watched I'm a Celebrity you may recall she got on remarkably well with rough diamond Eric Bristow, someone who very much fits the Ukip demographic. You describe her as gaffe prone but many voters switched to UKIP precisely to get away from the career, smooth talking, slippery politician you can't trust with a bargepole. with Nadine what you see is what you get,
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    tim said:



    Arrogance, cowardice, insecurity aand misogyny.

    But that's enough about you, tim.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    malcolmg said:



    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.

    Nah Fat Bastard's Salmond
    "Sloppy Salmond" in the Sun:

    Sloppy Alex Salmond given a right pounding

    http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/4916936/Sloppy-Alex-Salmond-given-a-right-pounding.html
    These people obviously never watch or listen to First Ministers Questions. It is excruciating to see him swat them every week, Lamont is incoherent and incapable of asking a question properly and the Tory is just a joke full stop.
    Obviously read this of a feed somewhere.
    Salmond is amazingly poor at FMQs. He never gives a straight answer , chortles smuggly at his own jokes , and makes factual errors on a weekly basis. Another eerie part of FMQs is that Sturgeon positions herself so that she can stare devotedly at Eck throughout , never moving from her frozen adoration.
    Here's the latest FMQ - the Sturgeon stare is spooky:

    http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/newsandmediacentre/41492.aspx

    I'd say Salmond did ok (but certainly not a colossus bestriding the stage, as some would have us believe) - bit like Cameron - going on about the other parties' policies - the Chair seems more relaxed about that than the Speaker in the HoC who usually drags things back onto government policy. The atmosphere is also quite different to the HoC - better humoured and less divisive.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,248
    @MM - Put down of the year!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. Norm, even if we assume she's not gaffe-prone nor so slick it puts people off that still leaves the undeniable issue of PUKIP being an ex-Conservative organisation. Lefties who can comfortably vote UKIP may very well be put off by that fact, and it would give the Establishment something to criticise and attack.

    Right now attacking UKIP is like trying to stab a ghost in the dark. That would change significantly if they had an MP.
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    MBoyMBoy Posts: 104

    Hardly - Mark's point was that there would be no "witch hunt" because Evans is a Tory - here's the Mail, not reporting it either:

    Which yet again backs Mark up - that's the difference between "reporting" and "feeding frenzy". Nobody ever said Rennard shouldn't be reported on.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681

    malcolmg said:



    dr_spyn said:

    @Tim

    Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.

    Nah Fat Bastard's Salmond
    "Sloppy Salmond" in the Sun:

    Sloppy Alex Salmond given a right pounding

    http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/4916936/Sloppy-Alex-Salmond-given-a-right-pounding.html
    These people obviously never watch or listen to First Ministers Questions. It is excruciating to see him swat them every week, Lamont is incoherent and incapable of asking a question properly and the Tory is just a joke full stop.
    Obviously read this of a feed somewhere.
    Salmond is amazingly poor at FMQs. He never gives a straight answer , chortles smuggly at his own jokes , and makes factual errors on a weekly basis. Another eerie part of FMQs is that Sturgeon positions herself so that she can stare devotedly at Eck throughout , never moving from her frozen adoration.
    Here's the latest FMQ - the Sturgeon stare is spooky:

    http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/newsandmediacentre/41492.aspx

    I'd say Salmond did ok (but certainly not a colossus bestriding the stage, as some would have us believe) - bit like Cameron - going on about the other parties' policies - the Chair seems more relaxed about that than the Speaker in the HoC who usually drags things back onto government policy. The atmosphere is also quite different to the HoC - better humoured and less divisive.
    He has no competition and it is similar to Manchester United having to play in the conference , they would get bored and soon not be performing at 100% but doing enough to still win easily. It is not good for anybody that the opposition in Scotland is so poor. Given also they do not get as much money , free bars and the huge Westminster trough to make them all so chummy and useless, it is a much more adversarial atmosphere and many of them do in fact dislike the other side. This is preferable to the Spa atmosphere of the Westminster bubble where you have no idea of any difference in policy between the parties, it is all just self interest.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    There's one consolation. Christchurch is even worse.

    Now as for Magdalen - a superior and socially adept sort of chap and chapess. William Hague, Jeremy Hunt, George Osborne and, oh Chris Huhne.
    JohnO said:

    @ourcurmudgeonlyhost

    Ah, but I am the exception as in some many instances albeit in an effortlessly superior manner.

    By the way, that Jo Grimond was a terrible sh1t, wasn't he? And Alan Beith too. And Roy Jenkins. Plus Robert MacClennan too. Yes, siree, LibDems = Balliol Nasty Party (BNP)

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    JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 140
    I put people in the picture on the psephology of Witney yesterday, but I'll do it again.

    The parliamentary seat is Witney but it is really West Oxon DC by another name. Witney is 6 DC wards out of 49 West Oxon in all and is atypical of the constituency by being lower middle class over spill in the main- most of the snobby villages look down on Witney although they like the shops and cinema etc.

    Central Witney has a tradition of being narrowly Labour and is held at the District by the Reds. The ward has the oldest and poorest demographic. The County ward is Central and South combined. South has a solid Labour block. To just get 30%+ in Central and South would have disappointed Labour who won the seat because of the major UKIP surge.

    The other factor is that the Tory candidate can at best be described as divisive. He was ousted as leader of the Town Council last year and has been associated with an unpopular development of some playing fields

    For completeness you should have listed Witney East and North - modesty forbids me as I am there under my stage name. My PB name is of course my real name. I came 5th!!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    If I was UKIP I'd far rather have Diane James as my first MP rather than Dorries - she'd be much more difficult to attack, whereas Dorries has plenty of baggage and reinforces "Conservative Party in Exile".
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Mr. Norm, even if we assume she's not gaffe-prone nor so slick it puts people off that still leaves the undeniable issue of PUKIP being an ex-Conservative organisation. Lefties who can comfortably vote UKIP may very well be put off by that fact, and it would give the Establishment something to criticise and attack.

    Right now attacking UKIP is like trying to stab a ghost in the dark. That would change significantly if they had an MP.

    I agree with your second para but not the first. Nadine has very visibly been a thorn in Cameron's side and that together with he 6 month exclusion from the party means she could very comfortably represent Ukip in parliament. Ukip voters are above all protest voters and Nadine fits that bill perfectly.

    Whether tactically they want an MP in parliament for the reason you state is another matter.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,246
    Why do Oxford folk go on about their colleges? Weird. Doesn't seem to impact other institutions quite as much.
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    SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    It's a sunny bank holiday.........and Tim's been posting uninterrupted since 5.00am

    Seek help
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    edited May 2013
    I will believe 0.6% growth in the second quarter when we see it but what is completely obvious is that IMF and other reports suggesting that the government should change strategy to obtain growth are going to look increasingly ridiculous as this year develops and the gap between UK and EU performance widens.

    There is a good and genuine argument to be had as to whether this is because tory policy has not been what they claimed and we have not endured the kind of austerity that is killing so many of the EU countries but it is an argument that Labour has completely thrown by their absurd and over the top campaign against the tiny cuts that the goverment has brought in to slow down the rate of increase in government spending that they inherited.

    This puts the tories in a very strong position in respect of the future debate, they are literally getting their cake and eating it; they accuse Labour of being irresponsible and yet have been far looser themselves than they will admit. The best Labour response that I have seen to this problem is probably our own Tim, who has developed a clever line in "cuts that increase spending". Fortunately I think it will prove too subtle to get much traction.

    So the economic arguments are about to go the tories' way in a big way. Better growth, lower borrowing, some extra cash for the odd goodie and a more general "feelgood" factor. I think the important point for the tories to grasp is that this is an opportunity, not a result. They need to seize that opportunity and ensure that the CD portion of the electorate who form the backbone of UKIP support see some of these benefits. Government services and charges, transportation and energy. All of these need to start falling in real terms and all available resources need to be focussed on that. Some wage inflation for the lower paid would not be bad thing either.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MBoy said:

    Hardly - Mark's point was that there would be no "witch hunt" because Evans is a Tory - here's the Mail, not reporting it either:

    Which yet again backs Mark up - that's the difference between "reporting" and "feeding frenzy". Nobody ever said Rennard shouldn't be reported on.
    Really? There was quite a lot of "fuss about nothing, all got up because of Eastleigh" and attacks on Cathy Newman for investigating what the Lib Dems had conspicuously failed to do. Newman even had to blog her investigation timeline to defend herself from Lib Dem attacks. Where are the Tories attacking reporters today?
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    MBoyMBoy Posts: 104


    Do you think the Conservative whips investigated the complaint against Nigel Evans thoroughly 4 years ago and do you know if Cameron was informed and if so took appropriate action ?

    And why has Number 10 refused to confirm or deny if Cameron was aware of the investigation? Was there a cover-up? This is important: it's about trust!

    {Cut and paste other comments from Tories 4 months ago}

    Where is the frenzy? Oh, Yeh...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,763

    If I was UKIP I'd far rather have Diane James as my first MP rather than Dorries - she'd be much more difficult to attack, whereas Dorries has plenty of baggage and reinforces "Conservative Party in Exile".

    Agreed. If Dorries did want to defect, UKIP would probably want to hold back until either they could announce other defections, or they had an MP elected in a by election.
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    MBoyMBoy Posts: 104

    Where are the Tories attacking reporters today?

    {Facepalm}

    The Evans case is being reported sensibly and correctly, that's exactly the point. There is no need for Tories to attack them. The contrast is astonishing, but predictable.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    Jonathan said:

    Why do Oxford folk go on about their colleges? Weird. Doesn't seem to impact other institutions quite as much.

    You don't seem to hear it from Cambridge people.

    The Oxford lot appear to be very insecure and insular by comparison.


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    MBoyMBoy Posts: 104
    edited May 2013
    Duplicate
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2013
    MBoy said:


    Do you think the Conservative whips investigated the complaint against Nigel Evans thoroughly 4 years ago and do you know if Cameron was informed and if so took appropriate action ?

    And why has Number 10 refused to confirm or deny if Cameron was aware of the investigation? Was there a cover-up? This is important: it's about trust!..
    Why would the Leader of the Opposition be briefed on a complaint about a back bench MP?

    Now a senior party official, Chief Executive, no less, tasked with recruiting more women candidates - facing allegations from them - might someone think Clegg should be briefed (did we ever get to the bottom of that, btw?)

    Unless he's a Lib Dem of course, then it's "Please Sir, they're being mean to me sir!"

    If you think the Evans story isn't getting coverage - try a google search.

    And when you find Tories complaining about the coverage - let me know.....
This discussion has been closed.