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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nadine could do Cameron a lot of damage if she switched to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nadine could do Cameron a lot of damage if she switched to Ukip
In 2008 the county council in Bedfordshire was abolished so it wasn’t one of the traditional shire counties where there was voting last Thursday.
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Is there really any policy differences between her and the leadership or is it just presentation?
Does she have a future in a post Cameron Tory party ? If she jumps now there is no way back
More broadly, to do well under FPTP you need a leader who's clear on where they want to take the party, preferably somewhere where the voters want to go, but the party itself needs to be a big tent, because in itself the leader's direction isn't going to appeal to enough voters.
Cameron has somehow contrived to do the opposite, where his own messaging is an incoherent mess of centrist decontamination and right-wing pandering, but people like Dorries at the fringes get belittled and shoved out. It's nuts. He gives people outside his circle concessions, which cost him credibility, when he should be showing them respect, which is free.
It seems like a no-brainer. Even if she gets reselected she's never going to get promoted. She obviously likes the attention, and she'd get loads. Where's the downside? She could even re-rat back to the Tories if they changed in a way she liked; It would be a great symbol for a post-Cameron leader to show they'd reconnected with the base.
Edit - worth recalling what Dorries claimed at the time:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/27/nadine-dorries-rebuild-bridges-tory-whip?CMP=twt_fd
UKIP is full of booliaks;
The voters will not be so booliakterous as to re-elect her if she stands for UKIP;
She won't join UKIP anyway.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10039340/Nigel-Evans-Deputy-Speaker-accused-of-rape-was-interviewed-four-years-ago-about-inappropriate-sexual-behaviour.html
And the Mirror spotted he was wearing a bit of slap at yesterday's Presser:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-evans-arrested-rape-allegations-1871879
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f249e08-b58a-11e2-850d-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2SUE4uxob
Cranes on the skyline have long been viewed as an indicator of recovery, and the huge concentration of large building projects in London reveals the gap between confidence in the capital and pessimism about prospects beyond the M25.
Data from an official register held by the Health and Safety Executive show that more than 5,400 tower cranes have been erected in Britain since March 2010, and that six in 10 of them went up in London – home to only one in eight of the population. London, the southeast and the east of England accounted for eight in 10 of the total.
This is the biggest slump for any French president in the past 50 years."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22423242
But 10 months ago:
"The Labour Party leader said he and France's Socialist president agree that getting Europe growing again is the top priority in tackling the financial crisis.
Miliband says he and Hollande fully agree that "we can't tackle the issues we face in relation to the financial markets and austerity unless we get a Europe that is growing again."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/9423448/Ed-Miliband-welcomed-by-Francois-Hollande-on-Elysee-Palace-steps.html
Typical Guardianistas to over pay for something. Must be the perfumed, perforated, absorbent paper edition for them.
WH Smith had it at £20 IRC. Amazon at £15.
Election Candidate Party Votes %
Laura Price Labour & Co-operative 756 31% Elected
James Firth Robertshaw UKIP 746 31% Not elected
David Harvey Conservative 697 29% Not elected
Freddie Peppiatt Green 132 5% Not elected
David Allen Dunmur Liberal Democrat 85 4% Not elected
http://mycouncil.oxfordshire.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=117
UKIP almost took Whitney South only 10 below the winning Labour-Co-Op Candidate - The Tory was third. PODCWAS.
How many of the councils publish these stats?
Num. ballot papers issued 1856
Number of ballot papers rejected 7
Number of postal votes sent 804
Number of postal votes returned 568
Turnout 22%
Not only should he have Nadine back in the party, he should give her a role with a public face. That would be much more effective than a referendum referendum in showing that he listens.
Election Candidate Party Votes %
Simon James Hoare Conservative 1230 49% Elected
Erika Barnby UKIP 629 25% Not elected
Calvert Charles McGibbon Labour 351 14% Not elected
Maurice Fantato Green 175 7% Not elected
Gillian Elizabeth Workman Liberal Democrat 138 5% Not elected
Several more Tory MP's decide to join her.
Does that leave Cameron moving to the right or more dependent upon LibDem support?
I think it is also worth remembering that she not only went off when Parliament was sitting but had been incredibly rude about Cameron personally on any number of occasions before that. In fairness to her I think she has largely stopped that and has kept a relatively low profile in recent months. TBH I had forgotten she was still suspended.
The tories need to find a formula that she is willing to work with which makes Cameron look reasonably strong on this. It is not going to be easy to meet all those criteria.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10039512/Labours-French-lesson.html
At least the French Socialists, who are in office for the first time in 20 years, can legitimately claim they were not around when the economic mistakes were being made.
Labour, by contrast, was not only at the scene of the crime, but its perpetrator. It should not be allowed to forget it."
It is one of the few councils which publishes postal votes issued and used. It also shows how many votes were rejected with breakdown of reasons.
It would be interesting to look at the correlations of postal votes and wining candidates amongst other things. But finding the information is another matter.
Respect is vital when dealing with people, especially with people different to you.
But I don't think that Cameron has that respect for others, his underlying arrogance shows too often. Similarly Cameron's insecurity makes him lose respect for himself when he fawns over someone he does admire.
If Nadine blames her persecution on Cameron not having respect for the working class or women then it hits Cameron on two vulnerable spots.
Its the chumocracy which is toxic not the provincial prolewoman.
Cameron as Dr Evil, more like Fat Bastard.
On topic, Nadine's recent comment that she is and remains a Conservative seems to rule out a quick switch, and rather to prepare the ground for a return. Like Edmund I think she'd be better off out - more fun, more influence, more attention, probably more money too in the long run - but she may not see it that way. It'll be surprising if no MP can resist the lure, though.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22421185
Perhaps we can feed in patterns of Nadine into such a machine and have replica Nadines all over parliament. Only Joking! But talk about brave new world in the making.............?
Indeed, Mr. K. It's an interesting but also somewhat disturbing development. The self-described crypto-anarchist has at least made it plain what some will end up using the technology for.
Consider if 3D printers had been commonplace in August 2011 during the London looting. We might well have had gangs of scum sending one another not just times and places through social media but designs for varying weapons. [I recognise that the majority of the looters were opportunistic airheads rather than violent thugs, but the point stands, particularly given how the police pussyfooted about for the first 2-3 days].
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4916750/george-osborne-clown-tweet.html#ixzz2SUpbUkGr
They really do hate people different to themselves.
What's worse is that its a petulant, nasty, insecure hatred.
There was a time when people born to privilege showed a little class and understood that concepts such as service and loyalty were two way.
Sloppy Alex Salmond given a right pounding
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/4916936/Sloppy-Alex-Salmond-given-a-right-pounding.html
When I saw this thread headline I thought it was a desperate plea from Mike Smithson to free himself from the shackles of onset senile Lib Demmery
There have been rumours of OGH meandering around his Bedford garden singing "Go home to your eco houses and prepare for Coalition government" - Other reports indicate that Mike, whilst singing, is burying favourite hair pieces by the flower borders.
Is Mike about to paint his home purple and start to half bake fruitcake - PBers should be warned !!
"Nadine is a classic LBJ tent pissing problem .... "
Do you mean lesbian-bi-gay pissing problem ? - What a golder shower gay Ukippers are !!
That's a revealing quote about "life's losers.". There are plenty of upper/ upper middle class people who mix easily with people from poor backgrounds, like Lord Salisbury, the Duke of Devonshire, Douglas Hurd and Boris Johnson, but they don't seem well represented in government.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323372504578464704081223308.html?mod=WSJUK_hpp_sections_opinion
Mind you, I think of UKIP and kippers as smart leopards, rather than hedgehogs.
"The Conservatives know that to survive they have to win back these voters. So out goes the old approach of rubbishing UKIP and their supporters. Which is why Cameron was wheeled out to retract his infamous dismissal of UKIP as ‘fruitcakes, loonies and closest racists, mostly’.
‘It is not easy to admit you’re wrong. But it needed to be done,’ one member of the Conservative leadership observed afterwards.
But this shift can’t be just for the cameras. Too many people in Downing Street sneer at UKIP voters, mocking them for their simplistic world view. One senior member of the operation even calls them ‘life’s losers’. It’s an attitude that is as arrogant as it is self-defeating.
The Cameroons need to grasp that you can’t blame the voter. It’ll take more than Cameron minding his Ps and Qs to bring back these lost legions."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2319644/Even-Tories-admit-Dave-needed-kick-ballots.html
In Mr Lympe-Pole's absence, it is my solemn duty to report that the Good News is still coming
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22423167
Now THAT'S what will see of the Kippers in 2015 and Ed too.
Obviously read this of a feed somewhere.
"J not G, it stands for Lesbian-Bi-Jacobite. We know what you people get up to."
LOL !!!!
Ok .... I'll own up. As the weather is so fine I'm about to patrol the estate in my tartan and leopard skin thong whilst listening to a compilation of the Pet Shop Boys and my favourite George Michael song - Come Outside .... How could I possibly stoop so low !!
Is Hersham's finest posting from some exotic location or are you still amidst the empty bolly bottles of victory celebrations from Thursday ?
Economic growth only works if the benefits are shared among the population not concentrated among the top 10%.
But you're not listening are you and that's because you don't want to listen.
Though why any Conservative wants to be in government after 2015 rather than let the Eds deal with what's coming is beyond me.
Still, maybe they're worried they'll offer to restore the whip and then she'll defect, so she can say they offered it back and she told those Etonian fakes running the Tories to stuff it.
They're worried and paranoid enough to believe that.
Hersham is verily an electoral beacon to the entire civilized world. Our kipper-candidate who resides in Cobham (COBHAM, I tell ye) could muster only 13.9%.
Wow, that has never happened before. Cameron is doomed. DOOMED I tell ye...
Even if it is reasonable that the lofty aims have not been able to be achieved, I very much doubt floating voters will give a party the benefit of the doubt when they have suffered 5 years of pain with the promise of 5 more (still only 3 promises at the moment, but it's coming) - they'll take the easy option.
It's difficult to vote for someone you know hates 'people like you'.
@tim - Frankenstein's monster eventually dies in the North Pole - Ski-jet for Mr Farage !!
Personally, I think a switch to UKIP would do her good, and would be good for UKIP as well, as it'd give them a voice in parliament, but also mean that Farage and Nuttall are not the only faces of the party.
Having said that, people want an alternative to the 3 main parties, and UKIP can become that if they get the next few months right, but can yo really build a new party from the likes of Dorries?
Meanwhile fresh problems such as electricity generation will impact after 2015.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2319714/Nigel-Evans-Deputy-Speaker-denies-gay-rape-claims-released-bail.html?ico=news^headlines
But if you yearn for Rennard stories, they've got one of those too;
"He repeated the boast yesterday on Facebook, and took a pop at his detractors. He wrote: ‘Thanks to all friends for likes and comments.
‘I note that more of the people opposed to my continuing membership of the party are now leaving it themselves, others having done so previously.’
His comments prompted a colleague to write that he was ‘ashamed’ and ‘disgusted’ to belong to the same party.
Callum Leslie, a vice-president of the party’s youth wing in Scotland, challenged him saying: ‘I’m sure you’d like Alison Smith to leave the party too.
‘Don’t be smug in the face of such serious allegations.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320006/Out-campaigning-ahead-local-elections-Lib-Dem-peer-groping-inquiry.html
I'm off to take Mrs Jack W for a sumptuous day out ..... Now, satnav for BurgerKing in Luton - I know how to show a gal a fine time !!
Right now UKIP is the protest party. People can happily project their views onto the purples, and get a nice feeling from kicking the established parties.
But if Dorries went to UKIP then that could cost them many leftwing votes. For a start, it'd mean UKIP had an MP, who would naturally get a lot of media attention. But the whole PUKIP [ahem, the Parliamentary UKIP] would be an ex-Conservative and a gaffe-prone one at that.
Nice one malc. :-)
Does Farage REALLY want that?
Happy Bank Holiday!
The Kippers will argue how much better off we would be outside the EU, and rightly so. Ukip are here to stay, get used to it.
It's tragic. I'm inconsolable.
'So many examples building up now.'
Even more puzzling why Labour did so badly last week.
Ah, but I am the exception as in some many instances albeit in an effortlessly superior manner.
By the way, that Jo Grimond was a terrible sh1t, wasn't he? And Alan Beith too. And Roy Jenkins. Plus Robert MacClennan too. Yes, siree, LibDems = Balliol Nasty Party (BNP)
It seems to me that people that rise up through the UKIP machine - Farage, James, Nuttall etc - are high performers. Defects from the Tory party... not so much.
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/newsandmediacentre/41492.aspx
I'd say Salmond did ok (but certainly not a colossus bestriding the stage, as some would have us believe) - bit like Cameron - going on about the other parties' policies - the Chair seems more relaxed about that than the Speaker in the HoC who usually drags things back onto government policy. The atmosphere is also quite different to the HoC - better humoured and less divisive.
Right now attacking UKIP is like trying to stab a ghost in the dark. That would change significantly if they had an MP.
Now as for Magdalen - a superior and socially adept sort of chap and chapess. William Hague, Jeremy Hunt, George Osborne and, oh Chris Huhne.
The parliamentary seat is Witney but it is really West Oxon DC by another name. Witney is 6 DC wards out of 49 West Oxon in all and is atypical of the constituency by being lower middle class over spill in the main- most of the snobby villages look down on Witney although they like the shops and cinema etc.
Central Witney has a tradition of being narrowly Labour and is held at the District by the Reds. The ward has the oldest and poorest demographic. The County ward is Central and South combined. South has a solid Labour block. To just get 30%+ in Central and South would have disappointed Labour who won the seat because of the major UKIP surge.
The other factor is that the Tory candidate can at best be described as divisive. He was ousted as leader of the Town Council last year and has been associated with an unpopular development of some playing fields
For completeness you should have listed Witney East and North - modesty forbids me as I am there under my stage name. My PB name is of course my real name. I came 5th!!
Whether tactically they want an MP in parliament for the reason you state is another matter.
Seek help
There is a good and genuine argument to be had as to whether this is because tory policy has not been what they claimed and we have not endured the kind of austerity that is killing so many of the EU countries but it is an argument that Labour has completely thrown by their absurd and over the top campaign against the tiny cuts that the goverment has brought in to slow down the rate of increase in government spending that they inherited.
This puts the tories in a very strong position in respect of the future debate, they are literally getting their cake and eating it; they accuse Labour of being irresponsible and yet have been far looser themselves than they will admit. The best Labour response that I have seen to this problem is probably our own Tim, who has developed a clever line in "cuts that increase spending". Fortunately I think it will prove too subtle to get much traction.
So the economic arguments are about to go the tories' way in a big way. Better growth, lower borrowing, some extra cash for the odd goodie and a more general "feelgood" factor. I think the important point for the tories to grasp is that this is an opportunity, not a result. They need to seize that opportunity and ensure that the CD portion of the electorate who form the backbone of UKIP support see some of these benefits. Government services and charges, transportation and energy. All of these need to start falling in real terms and all available resources need to be focussed on that. Some wage inflation for the lower paid would not be bad thing either.
{Cut and paste other comments from Tories 4 months ago}
Where is the frenzy? Oh, Yeh...
The Evans case is being reported sensibly and correctly, that's exactly the point. There is no need for Tories to attack them. The contrast is astonishing, but predictable.
The Oxford lot appear to be very insecure and insular by comparison.
Now a senior party official, Chief Executive, no less, tasked with recruiting more women candidates - facing allegations from them - might someone think Clegg should be briefed (did we ever get to the bottom of that, btw?)
Unless he's a Lib Dem of course, then it's "Please Sir, they're being mean to me sir!"
If you think the Evans story isn't getting coverage - try a google search.
And when you find Tories complaining about the coverage - let me know.....