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The Trump dynasty – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I’m in a rural Burmese town - Twantay - which is so rural I don’t think they’ve seen a white person for 40 years

    Walk down the street and people run out of the shops to have a look. One guy did a dangerous u-turn just to have a second glimpse. Children almost faint

    I mean, it could be my ruthless good looks but I don’t think so

    Possibly the last white person here was George Orwell. A copper stationed in Twantay in the 1920s

    Wasn't that the experience that turned him into an anti-imperialist and socialist?

    In which case, we can expect a different SeanT returning home...
    Possibly, tho in a fine irony I can confirm that socialist anti-imperialism has done nothing for Myanmar

    It is unbelievably poor. About half the GDP per capita of India. And you can see it
    Myanmar only has a sixth of the GDP per capita of neighboring Thailand. British Empire fans please explain.
    Now do Singapore.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 24

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic new poll from Canada narrowing the gap sharply.

    Conservatives 38.5%, Liberals 31.7%, NDP 14.2%, BQ 7.1%, GPC 3.2%, PPC 3.1%

    https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/01/liberals-break-30-points-following-trump-inauguration/

    The Trump effect or the Carney effect, or a bit of both?
    The former mainly, it seems most who voted Liberal last time have now gone back after flirting with Poilievre's Conservatives after Trump's threats to invade Canada and impose tariffs.

    What looked like a landslide Conservative victory in the autumn now looks like another hung parliament, albeit still with the Conservatives most seats this time
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,469
    edited January 24
    eek said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    Hmm... is non-consummation still grounds for annulment?
    The sex was so bad she refuses to have more of it - but consummation occurred so that ground isn’t valid
    Grounds for divorce does not apply in the UK since no fault divorce came into force

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/blame-game-ends-as-no-fault-divorce-comes-into-force
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 24

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239

    On topic, I agree with each of TSE's points, however, there's also a great big But.

    Point 1: "[TSE's] expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor". Yes, assuming he's around (a not-insignificant actuarial risk for the oldest-ever president at inauguration), his primary interest will be in protecting himself, which means he will want someone still personally loyal.

    Point 2: "[TSE] think[s] he’ll try and it keep within the family". Certainly, Trump operates court politics and trusts blood over money, and money over party. I agree his first preference will be family. Mafia, innit?

    Point 3: "which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.". Or perhaps back to him because who else is there? Eric is, to put it politely, not up to it. Ivanka was trialled during Trump-45 and exposed as wanting. Barron is too young. Tiffany is not being pushed forward. Kushner seems uninterested. But Don has been loyally pushing his dad's line and is, at the moment, the only plausible family successor. Whether he has the skills to be anything other than his father's mouthpiece is another question: being a candidate is more than being a proxy.

    Point 4: "so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election". Yes. Remember, this is less than a 3% implied chance. Backing it does not mean it's going to happen or is even likely to happen; just that the chances of it not happening are less than 97%. There are lots of ways Trump-48 could go wrong; the question is about putting numbers to them.

    And now the Big But, which we touched on earlier. This is Succession and about who best protects Trump's interests. If he doesn't feel any of his children or relations are up to it, he will go elsewhere, whatever his first instincts and preference. That may be Vance but it also may not be, given Trump's personal disloyalty and capriciousness. 3.8 is way too short to be value.

    One other point: Donald Trump snr isn't listed in the odds. I think that's a mistake. If there's one person above all others Trump trusts, it's himself. Yes, the 22nd Amendment is supposed to bar him from a third term but there's no absolute guarantee that it'll still be in place come 2028 or, if it is, that the courts would enforce it given the rate at which Trump is undermining democracy and the rule of law. There are also loopholes to the 22nd that could enable Trump to run a fourth time legitimately. Again, this isn't to say it's the most likely thing to happen but it is less than the 999/1 shot it'd need to be to get a listing.

    @david_herdson Very good post, and I agree with your points, particularly the last one.

    I remember suggesting on here a few months ago that Trump would run in 2028 and being shot down for it, but I have no idea why 8 years on from his first presidency, people still expect norms and the rule of law to be upheld.

    As you say, the courts can find an excuse if they want to - and a very Republican leaning Supreme Court at that!

    You can easily imagine an argument being spun like “Well, if the people don’t want him to run again, they can vote for his opponent. Let the people decide!”

    Also, Rep. Andy Ogles has literally just introduced a constitutional amendment to allow Trump to run for a Third Term - hilariously with a specific clause aimed at stopping Barack Obama from running again.

    https://ogles.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-ogles-proposes-amending-22nd-amendment-allow-trump-serve-third-term

    Of course this amendment likely won’t go anyway but I don’t know why people just think Trump senior won’t have a crack at doing this if he can. If they listed it on the Exchange / Smarkets I’d be all over it right now, even as a trading bet.
    Nah. There’ll be an election in 2028, and Trump will not be top of the ticket.

    The democratic infrastructure of the US will have been weakened, but it will still function. Whether it functions in a way that we can describe the vote as being on a level playing field, or whether it operates in a way where the playing field is slightly skewed, it is difficult to say at this point. There is a lot of damage that can be done in the next few years.

    I don’t believe Trump can overturn the 22 Amendment. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t try some constitutional hijinks like testing the vice president route, or essentially running with a surrogate (the Putin/Medvedev gambit).
    Even during 2024's campaign, Trump suffered some ‘Biden moments’ on stage, which might have lost him the election were it not for Biden's foot being obviously deeper in the grave. I doubt Trump will be up to a third run. Trump as the Elon Musk to one of his children might be the closest he gets, and I'm not sure any of them want it (see start of thread).
    Indeed.

    The man is 78 too, and given what we know of his diet, hardly the paragon of healthy living.

    In my mind there is not one scintilla of doubt that Trump will attempt a third run. The only question is whether his health holds out and whether the institutions of America allow him to run (GOP, Congress, SCOTUS etc).

    Based on all we have seen so far the answer to the latter point must surely be 'they will allow' it. Ways will be found for such an exceptional president etc etc.


  • HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Leon said:

    On topic, I agree with each of TSE's points, however, there's also a great big But.

    Point 1: "[TSE's] expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor". Yes, assuming he's around (a not-insignificant actuarial risk for the oldest-ever president at inauguration), his primary interest will be in protecting himself, which means he will want someone still personally loyal.

    Point 2: "[TSE] think[s] he’ll try and it keep within the family". Certainly, Trump operates court politics and trusts blood over money, and money over party. I agree his first preference will be family. Mafia, innit?

    Point 3: "which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.". Or perhaps back to him because who else is there? Eric is, to put it politely, not up to it. Ivanka was trialled during Trump-45 and exposed as wanting. Barron is too young. Tiffany is not being pushed forward. Kushner seems uninterested. But Don has been loyally pushing his dad's line and is, at the moment, the only plausible family successor. Whether he has the skills to be anything other than his father's mouthpiece is another question: being a candidate is more than being a proxy.

    Point 4: "so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election". Yes. Remember, this is less than a 3% implied chance. Backing it does not mean it's going to happen or is even likely to happen; just that the chances of it not happening are less than 97%. There are lots of ways Trump-48 could go wrong; the question is about putting numbers to them.

    And now the Big But, which we touched on earlier. This is Succession and about who best protects Trump's interests. If he doesn't feel any of his children or relations are up to it, he will go elsewhere, whatever his first instincts and preference. That may be Vance but it also may not be, given Trump's personal disloyalty and capriciousness. 3.8 is way too short to be value.

    One other point: Donald Trump snr isn't listed in the odds. I think that's a mistake. If there's one person above all others Trump trusts, it's himself. Yes, the 22nd Amendment is supposed to bar him from a third term but there's no absolute guarantee that it'll still be in place come 2028 or, if it is, that the courts would enforce it given the rate at which Trump is undermining democracy and the rule of law. There are also loopholes to the 22nd that could enable Trump to run a fourth time legitimately. Again, this isn't to say it's the most likely thing to happen but it is less than the 999/1 shot it'd need to be to get a listing.

    @david_herdson Very good post, and I agree with your points, particularly the last one.

    I remember suggesting on here a few months ago that Trump would run in 2028 and being shot down for it, but I have no idea why 8 years on from his first presidency, people still expect norms and the rule of law to be upheld.

    As you say, the courts can find an excuse if they want to - and a very Republican leaning Supreme Court at that!

    You can easily imagine an argument being spun like “Well, if the people don’t want him to run again, they can vote for his opponent. Let the people decide!”

    Also, Rep. Andy Ogles has literally just introduced a constitutional amendment to allow Trump to run for a Third Term - hilariously with a specific clause aimed at stopping Barack Obama from running again.

    https://ogles.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-ogles-proposes-amending-22nd-amendment-allow-trump-serve-third-term

    Of course this amendment likely won’t go anyway but I don’t know why people just think Trump senior won’t have a crack at doing this if he can. If they listed it on the Exchange / Smarkets I’d be all over it right now, even as a trading bet.
    Nah. There’ll be an election in 2028, and Trump will not be top of the ticket.

    The democratic infrastructure of the US will have been weakened, but it will still function. Whether it functions in a way that we can describe the vote as being on a level playing field, or whether it operates in a way where the playing field is slightly skewed, it is difficult to say at this point. There is a lot of damage that can be done in the next few years.

    I don’t believe Trump can overturn the 22 Amendment. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t try some constitutional hijinks like testing the vice president route, or essentially running with a surrogate (the Putin/Medvedev gambit).
    Even during 2024's campaign, Trump suffered some ‘Biden moments’ on stage, which might have lost him the election were it not for Biden's foot being obviously deeper in the grave. I doubt Trump will be up to a third run. Trump as the Elon Musk to one of his children might be the closest he gets, and I'm not sure any of them want it (see start of thread).
    Indeed.

    The man is 78 too, and given what we know of his diet, hardly the paragon of healthy living.

    ACTUALLY - Trump is on a health kick apparently

    I read it on X so it must be true. He’s dropped about 30 pounds (ozempic methinks) and Melania has got him to kick the fast food in favour of salads etc

    Plus, he’s never been a smoker or a drinker

    If you can get beyond the orange masque he doesn’t look that bad for a 78 year old. So anyone hoping the burgers will topple him might be outa luck
    No he doesn't and he even danced along, quite badly, to the village people.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,491
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Brains Trust
    Brains Trust

    Is anyone familiar with the actual rules around driving after eye dilation?

    This morning I have a tartar of a nurse who says she would not want me to even be cycling .afterwards.

    A question many of my diabetes patients ask.

    The answer is that it is legal to drive when the influence of the drops has worn off, which varies with the drops used and the spectacle prescription. With me it's about 30 minutes.

    Otherwise it depends on weather conditions. If it's sunny then there is a problem of glare, and also at night with headlights, much less so on a dull overcast day.

    There is a distance vision criteria for driving, a number plate at 20 meters, but even dilated most drivers make that. The bigger problem is glare, and theoretically insurance could be invalid as under the influence of medication.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10325996/
    On occasional visits to the eye clinic I take a bus through the centre of Coventry. It may not be Rangoon but it satisfies my wanderlust for a year or two.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,135
    Leon said:

    On topic, I agree with each of TSE's points, however, there's also a great big But.

    Point 1: "[TSE's] expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor". Yes, assuming he's around (a not-insignificant actuarial risk for the oldest-ever president at inauguration), his primary interest will be in protecting himself, which means he will want someone still personally loyal.

    Point 2: "[TSE] think[s] he’ll try and it keep within the family". Certainly, Trump operates court politics and trusts blood over money, and money over party. I agree his first preference will be family. Mafia, innit?

    Point 3: "which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.". Or perhaps back to him because who else is there? Eric is, to put it politely, not up to it. Ivanka was trialled during Trump-45 and exposed as wanting. Barron is too young. Tiffany is not being pushed forward. Kushner seems uninterested. But Don has been loyally pushing his dad's line and is, at the moment, the only plausible family successor. Whether he has the skills to be anything other than his father's mouthpiece is another question: being a candidate is more than being a proxy.

    Point 4: "so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election". Yes. Remember, this is less than a 3% implied chance. Backing it does not mean it's going to happen or is even likely to happen; just that the chances of it not happening are less than 97%. There are lots of ways Trump-48 could go wrong; the question is about putting numbers to them.

    And now the Big But, which we touched on earlier. This is Succession and about who best protects Trump's interests. If he doesn't feel any of his children or relations are up to it, he will go elsewhere, whatever his first instincts and preference. That may be Vance but it also may not be, given Trump's personal disloyalty and capriciousness. 3.8 is way too short to be value.

    One other point: Donald Trump snr isn't listed in the odds. I think that's a mistake. If there's one person above all others Trump trusts, it's himself. Yes, the 22nd Amendment is supposed to bar him from a third term but there's no absolute guarantee that it'll still be in place come 2028 or, if it is, that the courts would enforce it given the rate at which Trump is undermining democracy and the rule of law. There are also loopholes to the 22nd that could enable Trump to run a fourth time legitimately. Again, this isn't to say it's the most likely thing to happen but it is less than the 999/1 shot it'd need to be to get a listing.

    @david_herdson Very good post, and I agree with your points, particularly the last one.

    I remember suggesting on here a few months ago that Trump would run in 2028 and being shot down for it, but I have no idea why 8 years on from his first presidency, people still expect norms and the rule of law to be upheld.

    As you say, the courts can find an excuse if they want to - and a very Republican leaning Supreme Court at that!

    You can easily imagine an argument being spun like “Well, if the people don’t want him to run again, they can vote for his opponent. Let the people decide!”

    Also, Rep. Andy Ogles has literally just introduced a constitutional amendment to allow Trump to run for a Third Term - hilariously with a specific clause aimed at stopping Barack Obama from running again.

    https://ogles.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-ogles-proposes-amending-22nd-amendment-allow-trump-serve-third-term

    Of course this amendment likely won’t go anyway but I don’t know why people just think Trump senior won’t have a crack at doing this if he can. If they listed it on the Exchange / Smarkets I’d be all over it right now, even as a trading bet.
    Nah. There’ll be an election in 2028, and Trump will not be top of the ticket.

    The democratic infrastructure of the US will have been weakened, but it will still function. Whether it functions in a way that we can describe the vote as being on a level playing field, or whether it operates in a way where the playing field is slightly skewed, it is difficult to say at this point. There is a lot of damage that can be done in the next few years.

    I don’t believe Trump can overturn the 22 Amendment. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t try some constitutional hijinks like testing the vice president route, or essentially running with a surrogate (the Putin/Medvedev gambit).
    Even during 2024's campaign, Trump suffered some ‘Biden moments’ on stage, which might have lost him the election were it not for Biden's foot being obviously deeper in the grave. I doubt Trump will be up to a third run. Trump as the Elon Musk to one of his children might be the closest he gets, and I'm not sure any of them want it (see start of thread).
    Indeed.

    The man is 78 too, and given what we know of his diet, hardly the paragon of healthy living.

    ACTUALLY - Trump is on a health kick apparently

    I read it on X so it must be true. He’s dropped about 30 pounds (ozempic methinks) and Melania has got him to kick the fast food in favour of salads etc

    Plus, he’s never been a smoker or a drinker

    If you can get beyond the orange masque he doesn’t look that bad for a 78 year old. So anyone hoping the burgers will topple him might be outa luck
    Even if he’s done all those things, the level of stress alone that the man puts himself under (being angry at everything and everyone) can’t be good for him.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,135

    Andy_JS said:

    "International law is preventing the UK from giving teenage killers such as Axel Rudakubana whole life orders, a Cabinet minister has said.

    John Healey, the Defence Secretary, suggested that the UN convention on children’s rights stops Britain from being able to impose unlimited sentences on under-18s."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/international-law-whole-life-sentence-rudakubana-healey/

    Heaven preserve us from grandstanding politicians. Rudakubana drew a 52-year minimum which is enough to be getting on with. Ministers pontificating on sentences and knife sales and widening definitions just masks the real issues around what to do about non-terrorist dangers.
    Twas ever thus. Of course the key question is what can you do to avoid things like this happening in the first place. I very much doubt that this man will ever be released from prison, no matter whether he has a minimum term or an indefinite one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,533

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Which is surely the point. No one can be required to have sex against their wishes but withholding sex is an act with consequences and can be a reason for bringing a marriage to an end.

    And we don't drink cocoa, especially in bed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    "Des Lynam
    The only man who can steer Manchester United back to former glories is Gary Neville
    Much as I enjoyed Brighton’s victory, I have a soft spot for Man Utd and again urge their former captain to forsake punditry and save them"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/01/24/manchester-united-gary-neville-next-manager/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 24

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    What might have been...

    https://x.com/CLondoner92/status/1882167603788906521

    @CLondoner92
    #TfL Freedom of Information release:
    Proposed London Overground line names in 2015 when Boris Johnson was Mayor
    "We can confirm that a total of £10,175 was spent on customer research on the proposed line name changes."

    https://t.co/OWmUOuXPpu


    Barking line
    East London line
    Emerson Park line
    Lea Valley line
    North London line
    Watford local line

    3 of the 12 tube lines were named after just one family.....
    Victoria, I assume you're counting Jubilee... what's the other one? Am I being dense this morning?
    The Liz Line?
    Not a tube line.
    And the Victoria line is named for Victoria train station and not Queen Victoria.
    TFL don't think so:

    The line is named after Queen Victoria (1837–1901) and the mainline station of the same name, under which the Tube line passes.

    https://www.ltmuseum.co.uk/collections/stories/transport/victoria-line#:~:text=Why is it called the,which the Tube line passes.

    Victoria Station is named after Victoria Street which it abuts.

    Victoria Street:

    Victoria Street was a government improvement, planned in the 1830s (when it appeared on plans as King William Street), authorised in the 1840s, but not formally opened until 1851. However, it was another forty years before the street was fully developed. The street functioned as a 'sanitary improvement' - it was raised several feet above its marshy surroundings - and as a real estate speculation.

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/ramble-london/home/victoria-street-mansion-flats-and-model-dwellings#:~:text=Victoria Street was a government,the 1880s, very few remain.

    Given its construction date and change of name I think its a pretty safe bet that the street was named after the queen
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,923
    Andy_JS said:

    "Des Lynam
    The only man who can steer Manchester United back to former glories is Gary Neville
    Much as I enjoyed Brighton’s victory, I have a soft spot for Man Utd and again urge their former captain to forsake punditry and save them"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2025/01/24/manchester-united-gary-neville-next-manager/

    That would be amazing. Please let it happen. Signed, a Liverpool fan.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745

    Nigelb said:

    This is fucking nuts, as different populations respond differently to some drugs.

    FDA purges material on clinical trial diversity from its site, showing stakes of Trump DEI ban
    The scrubbing could affect the ways researchers and companies test drugs and medical devices
    https://www.statnews.com/2025/01/23/fda-purges-pages-clinical-trial-diversity-after-trump-dei-ban/

    Presumably RFK will be putting all resources into researching how COVID was ‘designed’ to spare Ashkenazi Jews.
    Don’t be silly, Theuniondivvie. The important news is that Trump gave him a pen. It’s not that he’s spread anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. We need to put these things into their proper perspective!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,032

    On topic, I agree with each of TSE's points, however, there's also a great big But.

    Point 1: "[TSE's] expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor". Yes, assuming he's around (a not-insignificant actuarial risk for the oldest-ever president at inauguration), his primary interest will be in protecting himself, which means he will want someone still personally loyal.

    Point 2: "[TSE] think[s] he’ll try and it keep within the family". Certainly, Trump operates court politics and trusts blood over money, and money over party. I agree his first preference will be family. Mafia, innit?

    Point 3: "which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.". Or perhaps back to him because who else is there? Eric is, to put it politely, not up to it. Ivanka was trialled during Trump-45 and exposed as wanting. Barron is too young. Tiffany is not being pushed forward. Kushner seems uninterested. But Don has been loyally pushing his dad's line and is, at the moment, the only plausible family successor. Whether he has the skills to be anything other than his father's mouthpiece is another question: being a candidate is more than being a proxy.

    Point 4: "so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election". Yes. Remember, this is less than a 3% implied chance. Backing it does not mean it's going to happen or is even likely to happen; just that the chances of it not happening are less than 97%. There are lots of ways Trump-48 could go wrong; the question is about putting numbers to them.

    And now the Big But, which we touched on earlier. This is Succession and about who best protects Trump's interests. If he doesn't feel any of his children or relations are up to it, he will go elsewhere, whatever his first instincts and preference. That may be Vance but it also may not be, given Trump's personal disloyalty and capriciousness. 3.8 is way too short to be value.

    One other point: Donald Trump snr isn't listed in the odds. I think that's a mistake. If there's one person above all others Trump trusts, it's himself. Yes, the 22nd Amendment is supposed to bar him from a third term but there's no absolute guarantee that it'll still be in place come 2028 or, if it is, that the courts would enforce it given the rate at which Trump is undermining democracy and the rule of law. There are also loopholes to the 22nd that could enable Trump to run a fourth time legitimately. Again, this isn't to say it's the most likely thing to happen but it is less than the 999/1 shot it'd need to be to get a listing.

    @david_herdson Very good post, and I agree with your points, particularly the last one.

    I remember suggesting on here a few months ago that Trump would run in 2028 and being shot down for it, but I have no idea why 8 years on from his first presidency, people still expect norms and the rule of law to be upheld.

    As you say, the courts can find an excuse if they want to - and a very Republican leaning Supreme Court at that!

    You can easily imagine an argument being spun like “Well, if the people don’t want him to run again, they can vote for his opponent. Let the people decide!”

    Also, Rep. Andy Ogles has literally just introduced a constitutional amendment to allow Trump to run for a Third Term - hilariously with a specific clause aimed at stopping Barack Obama from running again.

    https://ogles.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-ogles-proposes-amending-22nd-amendment-allow-trump-serve-third-term

    Of course this amendment likely won’t go anyway but I don’t know why people just think Trump senior won’t have a crack at doing this if he can. If they listed it on the Exchange / Smarkets I’d be all over it right now, even as a trading bet.
    Nah. There’ll be an election in 2028, and Trump will not be top of the ticket.

    The democratic infrastructure of the US will have been weakened, but it will still function. Whether it functions in a way that we can describe the vote as being on a level playing field, or whether it operates in a way where the playing field is slightly skewed, it is difficult to say at this point. There is a lot of damage that can be done in the next few years.

    I don’t believe Trump can overturn the 22 Amendment. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t try some constitutional hijinks like testing the vice president route, or essentially running with a surrogate (the Putin/Medvedev gambit).
    Even during 2024's campaign, Trump suffered some ‘Biden moments’ on stage, which might have lost him the election were it not for Biden's foot being obviously deeper in the grave. I doubt Trump will be up to a third run. Trump as the Elon Musk to one of his children might be the closest he gets, and I'm not sure any of them want it (see start of thread).
    Indeed.

    The man is 78 too, and given what we know of his diet, hardly the paragon of healthy living.

    In my mind there is not one scintilla of doubt that Trump will attempt a third run. The only question is whether his health holds out and whether the institutions of America allow him to run (GOP, Congress, SCOTUS etc).

    Based on all we have seen so far the answer to the latter point must surely be 'they will allow' it. Ways will be found for such an exceptional president etc etc.


    I think rottenborough was the first to say DJT would run and win in 2024 after the Jan 6 shenanigans, to much derision and nay-saying. This guy fucks.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic new poll from Canada narrowing the gap sharply.

    Conservatives 38.5%, Liberals 31.7%, NDP 14.2%, BQ 7.1%, GPC 3.2%, PPC 3.1%

    https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/01/liberals-break-30-points-following-trump-inauguration/

    The Trump effect or the Carney effect, or a bit of both?
    The former mainly, it seems most who voted Liberal last time have now gone back after flirting with Poilievre's Conservatives after Trump's threats to invade Canada and impose tariffs.

    What looked like a landslide Conservative victory in the autumn now looks like another hung parliament, albeit still with the Conservatives most seats this time
    And that’s why I don’t think Reform UK do well at the next UK general election.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,032

    Andy_JS said:

    "International law is preventing the UK from giving teenage killers such as Axel Rudakubana whole life orders, a Cabinet minister has said.

    John Healey, the Defence Secretary, suggested that the UN convention on children’s rights stops Britain from being able to impose unlimited sentences on under-18s."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/international-law-whole-life-sentence-rudakubana-healey/

    Heaven preserve us from grandstanding politicians. Rudakubana drew a 52-year minimum which is enough to be getting on with. Ministers pontificating on sentences and knife sales and widening definitions just masks the real issues around what to do about non-terrorist dangers.
    That kid was bang out of order. Fairly decent chance of getting fucked up inside anyway, I would have thought.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,541
    It's knocked our food waste bin over.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    Starmer mocked by American politicians for the Chagos Surrender


    https://x.com/_henrybolton/status/1882633603663962321?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    edited January 24

    .

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Social media note.

    I put in a marker on Bluesky 4 days ago:

    From the Bluesky side, it had stabilised post Musk's end of the pier show at just under a million posts per day, and last night was at just over 28 million users, ticking up at perhaps 60-70k per day.
    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats


    As of this morning, it is at 29.2 million accounts, so that is plus one million in 4 days - 250k per day. Obviously encouraged by Trump, and by Musk's gesture politics. And up from ~250k in August 2024.

    So on this trend minus a chunk, for it being a flurry, we'll be looking at ~50 million accounts by Easter, and numbers plus which communities / opinion leaders / organisations shift to Bluesky will make it clearer whether this will be a broader ecosystem.

    The PB Starter Pack is here:
    https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26

    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

    For bluesky to truly succeed it desperately needs a lot of centrist and, especially, right wing accounts to move

    I see no sign of that. Bluesky is actively hostile to these people

    So we will end up with two different but similar Twitter-like places and even less interaction between left and right. Not good
    Actively hostile?

    (Looks at twitter DMs). I could bring Police Scotland to a shuddering halt if I were to report every violent threat I've received on twitter. The blame for this division lies squarely with the social media firm that allows someone who advocates for a beaver reintroductions or a cycle lane here or there to receive that volume of abuse.
    Sure, but conversely if Bluesky ever does take off with a wide range of opinion then you will get that on Bluesky as well (indeed there are already early reports of bullying and harrassment on Bluesky - which could be seen as a good sign of its growth)
    I've just joined blue-sky, and I'm underwhelmed. None of the sports people/ companies I'm interested in have a presence there. My favourite bike brand isn't on it, other brands have an account, but no posts or media.
    Barely even a decent conspiracy theory nutjob on there.
    Hopefully, it'll pick up.
    I created a Bluesky account but don't go on there. Doesn't look particularly appealing! As for Twitter, I'm enjoying the calming effect of not being exposed to fact-free shithousery.

    Debate is crucial to politics and society. I've had my own journey from Blairite to give Corbyn a try to Social Democrat - those evolutions happen thanks to debate.

    My problem with Twitter and the alt-left/alt-right is that we're not debating based on facts or evidence or science or rationale. Something is said which is demonstrably not true which becomes the credo of that politics. Disagree and be disowned. Happened extensively with those Momentum wazzocks inside Labour, and now here we are with Truss issuing "I didn't crash the economy" letters despite having to fire, u-turn and resign because she demonstrably did. And then otherwise seemingly sensible people repeating this revisionism as if its not only true but is CLEARLY the only possible truth.

    This is why I feel at home in the LibDems. We have some proper rows over policy. But they're not facts vs fiction. We agree where we are - which is more than some Labour and Tory people can manage - and then debate what we do about it.

    Chris Parr
    @chrisjparr.bsky.social‬

    Leeds becomes first Russell Group university to quit X but will stay on other platforms like Bluesky.
    Probably pandering to students.

    People quit twitter, people join it. So what. Why make such a drama out of it apart from to say "look at me I'm being worthy"

    Businesses also need to bear in mind plenty of their customers are still there and far fewer of them would be on Bluesky.

    Posting stuff to make your interns/comms team feel better about their lives may be nice but it does not help customer engagement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

    For some for others if no adultery or domestic violence involved may just be a bump in the relationship that can be worked on.

    Roman Catholics of course still can't get a church approved divorce without a specific annulment
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Eabhal said:

    It's knocked our food waste bin over.

    The door off the gas meter is now in the garage having been ripped off in a violent gust of wind. All quiet on the North Durham front now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 24

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic new poll from Canada narrowing the gap sharply.

    Conservatives 38.5%, Liberals 31.7%, NDP 14.2%, BQ 7.1%, GPC 3.2%, PPC 3.1%

    https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/01/liberals-break-30-points-following-trump-inauguration/

    The Trump effect or the Carney effect, or a bit of both?
    The former mainly, it seems most who voted Liberal last time have now gone back after flirting with Poilievre's Conservatives after Trump's threats to invade Canada and impose tariffs.

    What looked like a landslide Conservative victory in the autumn now looks like another hung parliament, albeit still with the Conservatives most seats this time
    And that’s why I don’t think Reform UK do well at the next UK general election.
    We will see but ironically Trump's win probably doesn't have positive knock on effects for other nationalist right parties elsewhere in the West, as it didn't post 2016 either, as other voters will vote tactically to try and keep them out and don't want a Trump puppet leading them
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I'm sorry but it's the same with Ukraine. We are so determined to 'lead' with our contributions to the cause, we will do it until our own army is fighting with pitchforks. There's no concept of the national interest, none.

    You have to remember the context at the start of the SMO. It looked like it was going to be meme laden LOLfest and be over quickly. Boris was swept along with the euphoria of being in a war but without the politically troublesome cavalcade of fleg draped coffins landing at Brize that so marred the end of the Afghan adventure.

    Now it's turned into The Battle of the Heodenings, the UK government (among others) is balls deep in it with no exit strategy so all they can do is keep shoveling the cash and weapons in, to the great detriment of the British armed forces, while hoping for the best.
    Given the degree of damage being inflicted upon both the military power and the military prestige of Russia, the expenditure on the part of the UK government looks like the bargain of the century.
    Why?
    Russia has lost its frontline and best military equipment and soldiers. They are fighting with the second line now - large quantities of reworked ancient kit. The stockpiles of ancient tanks, APCs and SPGs has been massively depleted as well. The airforce is massively reduced as well. Production of new weapons is a trickle, and they are relying on North Korea for support. The Russian navy has taken massive losses as well.

    On the international arms market, their reputation has completely collapsed. Russian tanks are associated with turret tossing.

    All for the "cost", to the UK (among the rest), of mostly near time expired munitions and some training.

    Putin would now, definitely, lose a war against... Poland.
    So what? What have the military fortunes of a country which has never stood a serious chance of conventional invasion of the UK got to do with us that makes it worth denuding our own forces of military hardware and ammunition, to say nothing of just bunging £600mill at them to spend on other country's munitions without even passing through our own defence industry. The only deadly threat from Russia to the UK that I can perceive is if they start firing missiles at us, and I've seen precisely squat on defending against that possibility from our Government. And how does undermining Russia's military capability using Ukraine as the mechanism, as clever as that might be, help us with the strategic threat of China? The threat of Islamic radicalism? You know - actual issues?

    As for putting "cost" in inverted commas, you must know that's utterly ludicrous. AI (fact checking is necessary) says this about the UK's support:

    The UK Government has committed significant funds to support Ukraine’s war effort. As of the latest updates, the UK has provided or pledged around £12.8 billion in military aid. Additionally, the UK has agreed to provide an unprecedented $5 billion (£4 billion) in guarantees to enable Ukraine to access World Bank lending. More recently, the UK announced an extra £2.26 billion loan to Ukraine, bringing the total military support to over £15 billion. This includes both direct financial aid and guarantees to support Ukraine’s recovery and defense (sic).


    If it's anything like that, whilst the UK Government makes a mere £2.8bn from freezing grannies, it is a total farce, and deserves more debate than being placed in inverted commas and dismissed as 'some training and clapped out equipment' ffs.
    I would have thought it was obvious that preventing Russia rolling through Ukraine and abutting NATO territory is well worth any level of investment. A Russian victory won't end with Putin doing high fives with Kim, Xi and the ayatollahs.
    We're probably going to be spending up to 5% of GDP on defence whatever the outcome.
    Russia is quite obviously going to be a continuing threat to the whole of Europe, for the foreseeable future, barring a dramatic change in their government.

    That would just have happened a lot quicker if they'd defeated Ukraine absent western assistance. And the threat would have been considerably greater had their two combined economies and militaries remained largely intact.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    Taz said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Social media note.

    I put in a marker on Bluesky 4 days ago:

    From the Bluesky side, it had stabilised post Musk's end of the pier show at just under a million posts per day, and last night was at just over 28 million users, ticking up at perhaps 60-70k per day.
    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats


    As of this morning, it is at 29.2 million accounts, so that is plus one million in 4 days - 250k per day. Obviously encouraged by Trump, and by Musk's gesture politics. And up from ~250k in August 2024.

    So on this trend minus a chunk, for it being a flurry, we'll be looking at ~50 million accounts by Easter, and numbers plus which communities / opinion leaders / organisations shift to Bluesky will make it clearer whether this will be a broader ecosystem.

    The PB Starter Pack is here:
    https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26

    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

    For bluesky to truly succeed it desperately needs a lot of centrist and, especially, right wing accounts to move

    I see no sign of that. Bluesky is actively hostile to these people

    So we will end up with two different but similar Twitter-like places and even less interaction between left and right. Not good
    Actively hostile?

    (Looks at twitter DMs). I could bring Police Scotland to a shuddering halt if I were to report every violent threat I've received on twitter. The blame for this division lies squarely with the social media firm that allows someone who advocates for a beaver reintroductions or a cycle lane here or there to receive that volume of abuse.
    Sure, but conversely if Bluesky ever does take off with a wide range of opinion then you will get that on Bluesky as well (indeed there are already early reports of bullying and harrassment on Bluesky - which could be seen as a good sign of its growth)
    I've just joined blue-sky, and I'm underwhelmed. None of the sports people/ companies I'm interested in have a presence there. My favourite bike brand isn't on it, other brands have an account, but no posts or media.
    Barely even a decent conspiracy theory nutjob on there.
    Hopefully, it'll pick up.
    I created a Bluesky account but don't go on there. Doesn't look particularly appealing! As for Twitter, I'm enjoying the calming effect of not being exposed to fact-free shithousery.

    Debate is crucial to politics and society. I've had my own journey from Blairite to give Corbyn a try to Social Democrat - those evolutions happen thanks to debate.

    My problem with Twitter and the alt-left/alt-right is that we're not debating based on facts or evidence or science or rationale. Something is said which is demonstrably not true which becomes the credo of that politics. Disagree and be disowned. Happened extensively with those Momentum wazzocks inside Labour, and now here we are with Truss issuing "I didn't crash the economy" letters despite having to fire, u-turn and resign because she demonstrably did. And then otherwise seemingly sensible people repeating this revisionism as if its not only true but is CLEARLY the only possible truth.

    This is why I feel at home in the LibDems. We have some proper rows over policy. But they're not facts vs fiction. We agree where we are - which is more than some Labour and Tory people can manage - and then debate what we do about it.

    Chris Parr
    @chrisjparr.bsky.social‬

    Leeds becomes first Russell Group university to quit X but will stay on other platforms like Bluesky.
    Probably pandering to students.

    People quit twitter, people join it. So what. Why make such a drama out of it apart from to say "look at me I'm being worthy"

    Businesses also need to bear in mind plenty of their customers are still there and far fewer of them would be on Bluesky.

    Posting stuff to make your interns/comms team feel better about their lives may be nice but it does not help customer engagement.
    Maybe some things are more important than customer engagement?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920
    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    Not the cocoa I don't think. You'll be up in the night.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,785
    edited January 24

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    Yes, that’s it. These gimps just don’t care; antisemitism, raped working class English kids, freedom of speech, borders, it’s all grist to their fairly satanic mills.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,785
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    Not the cocoa I don't think. You'll be up in the night.
    In the case of one aging PBer more likely to be coca.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    edited January 24

    Taz said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Social media note.

    I put in a marker on Bluesky 4 days ago:

    From the Bluesky side, it had stabilised post Musk's end of the pier show at just under a million posts per day, and last night was at just over 28 million users, ticking up at perhaps 60-70k per day.
    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats


    As of this morning, it is at 29.2 million accounts, so that is plus one million in 4 days - 250k per day. Obviously encouraged by Trump, and by Musk's gesture politics. And up from ~250k in August 2024.

    So on this trend minus a chunk, for it being a flurry, we'll be looking at ~50 million accounts by Easter, and numbers plus which communities / opinion leaders / organisations shift to Bluesky will make it clearer whether this will be a broader ecosystem.

    The PB Starter Pack is here:
    https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26

    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

    For bluesky to truly succeed it desperately needs a lot of centrist and, especially, right wing accounts to move

    I see no sign of that. Bluesky is actively hostile to these people

    So we will end up with two different but similar Twitter-like places and even less interaction between left and right. Not good
    Actively hostile?

    (Looks at twitter DMs). I could bring Police Scotland to a shuddering halt if I were to report every violent threat I've received on twitter. The blame for this division lies squarely with the social media firm that allows someone who advocates for a beaver reintroductions or a cycle lane here or there to receive that volume of abuse.
    Sure, but conversely if Bluesky ever does take off with a wide range of opinion then you will get that on Bluesky as well (indeed there are already early reports of bullying and harrassment on Bluesky - which could be seen as a good sign of its growth)
    I've just joined blue-sky, and I'm underwhelmed. None of the sports people/ companies I'm interested in have a presence there. My favourite bike brand isn't on it, other brands have an account, but no posts or media.
    Barely even a decent conspiracy theory nutjob on there.
    Hopefully, it'll pick up.
    I created a Bluesky account but don't go on there. Doesn't look particularly appealing! As for Twitter, I'm enjoying the calming effect of not being exposed to fact-free shithousery.

    Debate is crucial to politics and society. I've had my own journey from Blairite to give Corbyn a try to Social Democrat - those evolutions happen thanks to debate.

    My problem with Twitter and the alt-left/alt-right is that we're not debating based on facts or evidence or science or rationale. Something is said which is demonstrably not true which becomes the credo of that politics. Disagree and be disowned. Happened extensively with those Momentum wazzocks inside Labour, and now here we are with Truss issuing "I didn't crash the economy" letters despite having to fire, u-turn and resign because she demonstrably did. And then otherwise seemingly sensible people repeating this revisionism as if its not only true but is CLEARLY the only possible truth.

    This is why I feel at home in the LibDems. We have some proper rows over policy. But they're not facts vs fiction. We agree where we are - which is more than some Labour and Tory people can manage - and then debate what we do about it.

    Chris Parr
    @chrisjparr.bsky.social‬

    Leeds becomes first Russell Group university to quit X but will stay on other platforms like Bluesky.
    Probably pandering to students.

    People quit twitter, people join it. So what. Why make such a drama out of it apart from to say "look at me I'm being worthy"

    Businesses also need to bear in mind plenty of their customers are still there and far fewer of them would be on Bluesky.

    Posting stuff to make your interns/comms team feel better about their lives may be nice but it does not help customer engagement.
    Maybe some things are more important than customer engagement?
    Yes, I agree, and what business needs such a triviality as engaging with its customers irrespective of their politics.

    I am sure you, with your long and extensive career in the private sector in businesses that deal with the general public know this only too well.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

    For some for others if no adultery or domestic violence involved may just be a bump in the relationship that can be worked on.

    Roman Catholics of course still can't get a church approved divorce without a specific annulment
    You are either naive or have no real life experience of divorce
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,439
    edited January 24
    Andy_JS said:

    "International law is preventing the UK from giving teenage killers such as Axel Rudakubana whole life orders, a Cabinet minister has said.

    John Healey, the Defence Secretary, suggested that the UN convention on children’s rights stops Britain from being able to impose unlimited sentences on under-18s."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/international-law-whole-life-sentence-rudakubana-healey/

    This is questionable to say the least. A life sentence, which was handed out, is in itself an unlimited sentence, allowing but not compelling the state to incarcerate this defendant for his whole life. The only concession is that the state can think about letting him out, but does not have to, when he is 69/70.

    For a young person this should be incredibly rare, and of course in this case is right.

    BTW an appeal to the Court of Appeal is quite possible, over the 52 year minimum tariff. SFAICS there is no analagous precedent case concerning an under 18 (which shows how rare this all is) and guidance from the Court of Appeal would be useful.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Which is surely the point. No one can be required to have sex against their wishes but withholding sex is an act with consequences and can be a reason for bringing a marriage to an end.

    And we don't drink cocoa, especially in bed.
    The wife of a friend of mine decided she no longer wanted sex after their second child was born. She was about 40, he maybe 42 - this was nearly 20 years ago, they’ve not had sex since

    He’s quite highly sexed, and desperately wanted sex. In the end he broached the idea of him quietly finding solace elsewhere and she said, if you do that I will divorce you and take the kids, the house, etc

    This seemed to me then, seems to me now, quite exceptionally cruel and unfair. He tolerated it because he “loved her”.

    There is a lot of unseen misery in many marriages
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    .

    On topic, I agree with each of TSE's points, however, there's also a great big But.

    Point 1: "[TSE's] expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor". Yes, assuming he's around (a not-insignificant actuarial risk for the oldest-ever president at inauguration), his primary interest will be in protecting himself, which means he will want someone still personally loyal.

    Point 2: "[TSE] think[s] he’ll try and it keep within the family". Certainly, Trump operates court politics and trusts blood over money, and money over party. I agree his first preference will be family. Mafia, innit?

    Point 3: "which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.". Or perhaps back to him because who else is there? Eric is, to put it politely, not up to it. Ivanka was trialled during Trump-45 and exposed as wanting. Barron is too young. Tiffany is not being pushed forward. Kushner seems uninterested. But Don has been loyally pushing his dad's line and is, at the moment, the only plausible family successor. Whether he has the skills to be anything other than his father's mouthpiece is another question: being a candidate is more than being a proxy.

    Point 4: "so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election". Yes. Remember, this is less than a 3% implied chance. Backing it does not mean it's going to happen or is even likely to happen; just that the chances of it not happening are less than 97%. There are lots of ways Trump-48 could go wrong; the question is about putting numbers to them.

    And now the Big But, which we touched on earlier. This is Succession and about who best protects Trump's interests. If he doesn't feel any of his children or relations are up to it, he will go elsewhere, whatever his first instincts and preference. That may be Vance but it also may not be, given Trump's personal disloyalty and capriciousness. 3.8 is way too short to be value.

    One other point: Donald Trump snr isn't listed in the odds. I think that's a mistake. If there's one person above all others Trump trusts, it's himself. Yes, the 22nd Amendment is supposed to bar him from a third term but there's no absolute guarantee that it'll still be in place come 2028 or, if it is, that the courts would enforce it given the rate at which Trump is undermining democracy and the rule of law. There are also loopholes to the 22nd that could enable Trump to run a fourth time legitimately. Again, this isn't to say it's the most likely thing to happen but it is less than the 999/1 shot it'd need to be to get a listing.

    @david_herdson Very good post, and I agree with your points, particularly the last one.

    I remember suggesting on here a few months ago that Trump would run in 2028 and being shot down for it, but I have no idea why 8 years on from his first presidency, people still expect norms and the rule of law to be upheld.

    As you say, the courts can find an excuse if they want to - and a very Republican leaning Supreme Court at that!

    You can easily imagine an argument being spun like “Well, if the people don’t want him to run again, they can vote for his opponent. Let the people decide!”

    Also, Rep. Andy Ogles has literally just introduced a constitutional amendment to allow Trump to run for a Third Term - hilariously with a specific clause aimed at stopping Barack Obama from running again.

    https://ogles.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-ogles-proposes-amending-22nd-amendment-allow-trump-serve-third-term

    Of course this amendment likely won’t go anyway but I don’t know why people just think Trump senior won’t have a crack at doing this if he can. If they listed it on the Exchange / Smarkets I’d be all over it right now, even as a trading bet.
    Only if you're paranoid.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    On topic, I agree with each of TSE's points, however, there's also a great big But.

    Point 1: "[TSE's] expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor". Yes, assuming he's around (a not-insignificant actuarial risk for the oldest-ever president at inauguration), his primary interest will be in protecting himself, which means he will want someone still personally loyal.

    Point 2: "[TSE] think[s] he’ll try and it keep within the family". Certainly, Trump operates court politics and trusts blood over money, and money over party. I agree his first preference will be family. Mafia, innit?

    Point 3: "which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.". Or perhaps back to him because who else is there? Eric is, to put it politely, not up to it. Ivanka was trialled during Trump-45 and exposed as wanting. Barron is too young. Tiffany is not being pushed forward. Kushner seems uninterested. But Don has been loyally pushing his dad's line and is, at the moment, the only plausible family successor. Whether he has the skills to be anything other than his father's mouthpiece is another question: being a candidate is more than being a proxy.

    Point 4: "so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election". Yes. Remember, this is less than a 3% implied chance. Backing it does not mean it's going to happen or is even likely to happen; just that the chances of it not happening are less than 97%. There are lots of ways Trump-48 could go wrong; the question is about putting numbers to them.

    And now the Big But, which we touched on earlier. This is Succession and about who best protects Trump's interests. If he doesn't feel any of his children or relations are up to it, he will go elsewhere, whatever his first instincts and preference. That may be Vance but it also may not be, given Trump's personal disloyalty and capriciousness. 3.8 is way too short to be value.

    One other point: Donald Trump snr isn't listed in the odds. I think that's a mistake. If there's one person above all others Trump trusts, it's himself. Yes, the 22nd Amendment is supposed to bar him from a third term but there's no absolute guarantee that it'll still be in place come 2028 or, if it is, that the courts would enforce it given the rate at which Trump is undermining democracy and the rule of law. There are also loopholes to the 22nd that could enable Trump to run a fourth time legitimately. Again, this isn't to say it's the most likely thing to happen but it is less than the 999/1 shot it'd need to be to get a listing.

    @david_herdson Very good post, and I agree with your points, particularly the last one.

    I remember suggesting on here a few months ago that Trump would run in 2028 and being shot down for it, but I have no idea why 8 years on from his first presidency, people still expect norms and the rule of law to be upheld.

    As you say, the courts can find an excuse if they want to - and a very Republican leaning Supreme Court at that!

    You can easily imagine an argument being spun like “Well, if the people don’t want him to run again, they can vote for his opponent. Let the people decide!”

    Also, Rep. Andy Ogles has literally just introduced a constitutional amendment to allow Trump to run for a Third Term - hilariously with a specific clause aimed at stopping Barack Obama from running again.

    https://ogles.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-ogles-proposes-amending-22nd-amendment-allow-trump-serve-third-term

    Of course this amendment likely won’t go anyway but I don’t know why people just think Trump senior won’t have a crack at doing this if he can. If they listed it on the Exchange / Smarkets I’d be all over it right now, even as a trading bet.
    I wouldn't be particularly surprised if there is no (traditional) 2028 US Presidential election, let alone Trump being allowed to run.
    Seriously?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,541
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's knocked our food waste bin over.

    The door off the gas meter is now in the garage having been ripped off in a violent gust of wind. All quiet on the North Durham front now.
    The local foxes are having a dreadful time. Cowering under a hedge at the back of the drying green.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,612
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Which is surely the point. No one can be required to have sex against their wishes but withholding sex is an act with consequences and can be a reason for bringing a marriage to an end.

    And we don't drink cocoa, especially in bed.
    The wife of a friend of mine decided she no longer wanted sex after their second child was born. She was about 40, he maybe 42 - this was nearly 20 years ago, they’ve not had sex since

    He’s quite highly sexed, and desperately wanted sex. In the end he broached the idea of him quietly finding solace elsewhere and she said, if you do that I will divorce you and take the kids, the house, etc

    This seemed to me then, seems to me now, quite exceptionally cruel and unfair. He tolerated it because he “loved her”.

    There is a lot of unseen misery in many marriages
    "Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,598
    Niall Ferguson is not impressed with the German suggestion to invite Chinese peacekeepers to Ukraine:

    https://x.com/pawelsokala/status/1882426585128776116
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    edited January 24

    Taz said:

    Growth Agenda latest

    “Manufacturers have entered the New Year in a grim mood. Confidence has evaporated over the last three months as orders have dropped,” said Ben Jones, economist at the business group.

    “A fall in domestic deliveries comes amid widespread concerns over the impact of the increase in National Insurance contributions, minimum wages and changes to employment law on firms’ operating costs.”

    Much of the global manufacturing sector is struggling with German industry gripped by high energy prices, weak demand and stiff competition from Chinese car manufacturers, while China itself is also battling against an economic slump caused in part by a property crisis.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/factories-suffer-fastest-slump-in-orders-since-covid-hit/ar-AA1xK26z?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c4db0e3a75ca4649b6cc76d7b50f58bb&ei=13

    There is a good article in the Spectator about this. Grim reading.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/unmade-in-britain-were-becoming-a-zero-industrial-society/

    It is growingly apparent that everyone else's politicians were at the COP and other conferences thinking - 'How can we do this whilst keeping industries going?' (unless they were China and India who were just there saying thinking - 'Screw this!' ). British politicians however (and I absolutely include Boris and other Tories in this) were not thinking this, they were just thinking how good they would look in that moment if they just threw it all in and did *extra*. How nice the Champagne tasted and how good the pats on the back felt. Someone else would make it work.

    I well remember the Swedish Government at one of the recent climate junkets saying 'Unfortunately our emissions are going to track up a bit and here's why'. The thought of doing that wouldn't even enter the cavity between the ears of a British politician.

    I'm sorry but it's the same with Ukraine. We are so determined to 'lead' with our contributions to the cause, we will do it until our own army is fighting with pitchforks. There's no concept of the national interest, none.

    Even now, we have an avowedly Tory MP, writing on Conhome in support of a bill to SPEED Net Zero. How can Kemi even hope to operate a party with that sort of person in the PCP?
    We keep forgetting the function of the British state is to preserve, protect and defend the people of the United Kingdom. The political parties Lab and Con have forgotten that.
    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic new poll from Canada narrowing the gap sharply.

    Conservatives 38.5%, Liberals 31.7%, NDP 14.2%, BQ 7.1%, GPC 3.2%, PPC 3.1%

    https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/01/liberals-break-30-points-following-trump-inauguration/

    As Sir John Curtice said (and I was in the room when he said it), until an election is called polls are just an expression of support or otherwise for the government. When an election is called and people have to consider who to vote for for real, the polls may shift.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,920

    Taz said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Social media note.

    I put in a marker on Bluesky 4 days ago:

    From the Bluesky side, it had stabilised post Musk's end of the pier show at just under a million posts per day, and last night was at just over 28 million users, ticking up at perhaps 60-70k per day.
    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats


    As of this morning, it is at 29.2 million accounts, so that is plus one million in 4 days - 250k per day. Obviously encouraged by Trump, and by Musk's gesture politics. And up from ~250k in August 2024.

    So on this trend minus a chunk, for it being a flurry, we'll be looking at ~50 million accounts by Easter, and numbers plus which communities / opinion leaders / organisations shift to Bluesky will make it clearer whether this will be a broader ecosystem.

    The PB Starter Pack is here:
    https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26

    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

    For bluesky to truly succeed it desperately needs a lot of centrist and, especially, right wing accounts to move

    I see no sign of that. Bluesky is actively hostile to these people

    So we will end up with two different but similar Twitter-like places and even less interaction between left and right. Not good
    Actively hostile?

    (Looks at twitter DMs). I could bring Police Scotland to a shuddering halt if I were to report every violent threat I've received on twitter. The blame for this division lies squarely with the social media firm that allows someone who advocates for a beaver reintroductions or a cycle lane here or there to receive that volume of abuse.
    Sure, but conversely if Bluesky ever does take off with a wide range of opinion then you will get that on Bluesky as well (indeed there are already early reports of bullying and harrassment on Bluesky - which could be seen as a good sign of its growth)
    I've just joined blue-sky, and I'm underwhelmed. None of the sports people/ companies I'm interested in have a presence there. My favourite bike brand isn't on it, other brands have an account, but no posts or media.
    Barely even a decent conspiracy theory nutjob on there.
    Hopefully, it'll pick up.
    I created a Bluesky account but don't go on there. Doesn't look particularly appealing! As for Twitter, I'm enjoying the calming effect of not being exposed to fact-free shithousery.

    Debate is crucial to politics and society. I've had my own journey from Blairite to give Corbyn a try to Social Democrat - those evolutions happen thanks to debate.

    My problem with Twitter and the alt-left/alt-right is that we're not debating based on facts or evidence or science or rationale. Something is said which is demonstrably not true which becomes the credo of that politics. Disagree and be disowned. Happened extensively with those Momentum wazzocks inside Labour, and now here we are with Truss issuing "I didn't crash the economy" letters despite having to fire, u-turn and resign because she demonstrably did. And then otherwise seemingly sensible people repeating this revisionism as if its not only true but is CLEARLY the only possible truth.

    This is why I feel at home in the LibDems. We have some proper rows over policy. But they're not facts vs fiction. We agree where we are - which is more than some Labour and Tory people can manage - and then debate what we do about it.

    Chris Parr
    @chrisjparr.bsky.social‬

    Leeds becomes first Russell Group university to quit X but will stay on other platforms like Bluesky.
    Probably pandering to students.

    People quit twitter, people join it. So what. Why make such a drama out of it apart from to say "look at me I'm being worthy"

    Businesses also need to bear in mind plenty of their customers are still there and far fewer of them would be on Bluesky.

    Posting stuff to make your interns/comms team feel better about their lives may be nice but it does not help customer engagement.
    Maybe some things are more important than customer engagement?
    Yes. If enough people leave X it's dead.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,373
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Which is surely the point. No one can be required to have sex against their wishes but withholding sex is an act with consequences and can be a reason for bringing a marriage to an end.

    And we don't drink cocoa, especially in bed.
    You say you cannot sleep at night, your bed is no temptation
    Say the word and marry me, and I'll be your salvation
    I'll bring your Horlicks up to bed and stop your night starvation...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    60 is the new 30.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652
    edited January 24
    Who do Britons hold responsible for the Southport attacks?

    Axel Rudakubana: 91%*
    His parents: 72%
    Counter-terrorism services: 70%
    Mental health services: 64%
    Police: 59%
    Previous Tory govts: 43%
    His school: 43%
    Current Labour govt: 28%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750967608721514

    Do Britons think the Southport killings were a terrorist attack?

    Were murder, but not a terrorist attack: 44%
    Were a terrorist attack: 35% (66% of Reform voters think they were a terrorist attack)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750976274452938

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,135
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Social media note.

    I put in a marker on Bluesky 4 days ago:

    From the Bluesky side, it had stabilised post Musk's end of the pier show at just under a million posts per day, and last night was at just over 28 million users, ticking up at perhaps 60-70k per day.
    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats


    As of this morning, it is at 29.2 million accounts, so that is plus one million in 4 days - 250k per day. Obviously encouraged by Trump, and by Musk's gesture politics. And up from ~250k in August 2024.

    So on this trend minus a chunk, for it being a flurry, we'll be looking at ~50 million accounts by Easter, and numbers plus which communities / opinion leaders / organisations shift to Bluesky will make it clearer whether this will be a broader ecosystem.

    The PB Starter Pack is here:
    https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26

    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

    For bluesky to truly succeed it desperately needs a lot of centrist and, especially, right wing accounts to move

    I see no sign of that. Bluesky is actively hostile to these people

    So we will end up with two different but similar Twitter-like places and even less interaction between left and right. Not good
    Actively hostile?

    (Looks at twitter DMs). I could bring Police Scotland to a shuddering halt if I were to report every violent threat I've received on twitter. The blame for this division lies squarely with the social media firm that allows someone who advocates for a beaver reintroductions or a cycle lane here or there to receive that volume of abuse.
    Sure, but conversely if Bluesky ever does take off with a wide range of opinion then you will get that on Bluesky as well (indeed there are already early reports of bullying and harrassment on Bluesky - which could be seen as a good sign of its growth)
    I've just joined blue-sky, and I'm underwhelmed. None of the sports people/ companies I'm interested in have a presence there. My favourite bike brand isn't on it, other brands have an account, but no posts or media.
    Barely even a decent conspiracy theory nutjob on there.
    Hopefully, it'll pick up.
    I created a Bluesky account but don't go on there. Doesn't look particularly appealing! As for Twitter, I'm enjoying the calming effect of not being exposed to fact-free shithousery.

    Debate is crucial to politics and society. I've had my own journey from Blairite to give Corbyn a try to Social Democrat - those evolutions happen thanks to debate.

    My problem with Twitter and the alt-left/alt-right is that we're not debating based on facts or evidence or science or rationale. Something is said which is demonstrably not true which becomes the credo of that politics. Disagree and be disowned. Happened extensively with those Momentum wazzocks inside Labour, and now here we are with Truss issuing "I didn't crash the economy" letters despite having to fire, u-turn and resign because she demonstrably did. And then otherwise seemingly sensible people repeating this revisionism as if its not only true but is CLEARLY the only possible truth.

    This is why I feel at home in the LibDems. We have some proper rows over policy. But they're not facts vs fiction. We agree where we are - which is more than some Labour and Tory people can manage - and then debate what we do about it.

    Chris Parr
    @chrisjparr.bsky.social‬

    Leeds becomes first Russell Group university to quit X but will stay on other platforms like Bluesky.
    Probably pandering to students.

    People quit twitter, people join it. So what. Why make such a drama out of it apart from to say "look at me I'm being worthy"

    Businesses also need to bear in mind plenty of their customers are still there and far fewer of them would be on Bluesky.

    Posting stuff to make your interns/comms team feel better about their lives may be nice but it does not help customer engagement.
    Maybe some things are more important than customer engagement?
    Yes. If enough people leave X it's dead.
    If you leave a platform for only one side to engage with, you have to be prepared for the consequence that that side gets a lot of opportunity to influence the users caught in the middle.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Which is surely the point. No one can be required to have sex against their wishes but withholding sex is an act with consequences and can be a reason for bringing a marriage to an end.

    And we don't drink cocoa, especially in bed.
    The wife of a friend of mine decided she no longer wanted sex after their second child was born. She was about 40, he maybe 42 - this was nearly 20 years ago, they’ve not had sex since

    He’s quite highly sexed, and desperately wanted sex. In the end he broached the idea of him quietly finding solace elsewhere and she said, if you do that I will divorce you and take the kids, the house, etc

    This seemed to me then, seems to me now, quite exceptionally cruel and unfair. He tolerated it because he “loved her”.

    There is a lot of unseen misery in many marriages
    "Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way"
    I told him to discreetly go to a hooker, and he very nearly did, but in the end felt too guilty

    He claims he never minded that much and now his libido has dropped, anyway, it’s easier

    But basically she killed his sex life at the age of 42. Bitch
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,541
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Brains Trust
    Brains Trust

    Is anyone familiar with the actual rules around driving after eye dilation?

    This morning I have a tartar of a nurse who says she would not want me to even be cycling .afterwards.

    A question many of my diabetes patients ask.

    The answer is that it is legal to drive when the influence of the drops has worn off, which varies with the drops used and the spectacle prescription. With me it's about 30 minutes.

    Otherwise it depends on weather conditions. If it's sunny then there is a problem of glare, and also at night with headlights, much less so on a dull overcast day.

    There is a distance vision criteria for driving, a number plate at 20 meters, but even dilated most drivers make that. The bigger problem is glare, and theoretically insurance could be invalid as under the influence of medication.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10325996/
    To extend the eyesight discussion, gratifying that the "sun was in my eyes" excuse didn't wash this time due to some good investigation by the police.

    https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/scottish-news/24880754.woman-ran-legendary-cyclist-claimed-not-see/

    Of course, it should never be an excuse - if you can't see, you shouldn't drive. And in this case, the explanation was proven to be a lie and I hope that contributes to the sentence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156

    Niall Ferguson is not impressed with the German suggestion to invite Chinese peacekeepers to Ukraine:

    https://x.com/pawelsokala/status/1882426585128776116

    Might as well ask the North Koreans.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    HYUFD said:

    Who do Britons hold responsible for the Southport attacks?

    Axel Rudakubana: 91%*
    His parents: 72%
    Counter-terrorism services: 70%
    Mental health services: 64%
    Police: 59%
    Previous Tory govts: 43%
    His school: 43%
    Current Labour govt: 28%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750967608721514

    Do Britons think the Southport killings were a terrorist attack?

    Were murder, but not a terrorist attack: 44%
    Were a terrorist attack: 35% (66% of Reform voters think they were a terrorist attack)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750976274452938

    “70% blaming counter terror services” and “59% police” are very damning numbers
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,541
    edited January 24
    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,239
    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic, I agree with each of TSE's points, however, there's also a great big But.

    Point 1: "[TSE's] expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor". Yes, assuming he's around (a not-insignificant actuarial risk for the oldest-ever president at inauguration), his primary interest will be in protecting himself, which means he will want someone still personally loyal.

    Point 2: "[TSE] think[s] he’ll try and it keep within the family". Certainly, Trump operates court politics and trusts blood over money, and money over party. I agree his first preference will be family. Mafia, innit?

    Point 3: "which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.". Or perhaps back to him because who else is there? Eric is, to put it politely, not up to it. Ivanka was trialled during Trump-45 and exposed as wanting. Barron is too young. Tiffany is not being pushed forward. Kushner seems uninterested. But Don has been loyally pushing his dad's line and is, at the moment, the only plausible family successor. Whether he has the skills to be anything other than his father's mouthpiece is another question: being a candidate is more than being a proxy.

    Point 4: "so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election". Yes. Remember, this is less than a 3% implied chance. Backing it does not mean it's going to happen or is even likely to happen; just that the chances of it not happening are less than 97%. There are lots of ways Trump-48 could go wrong; the question is about putting numbers to them.

    And now the Big But, which we touched on earlier. This is Succession and about who best protects Trump's interests. If he doesn't feel any of his children or relations are up to it, he will go elsewhere, whatever his first instincts and preference. That may be Vance but it also may not be, given Trump's personal disloyalty and capriciousness. 3.8 is way too short to be value.

    One other point: Donald Trump snr isn't listed in the odds. I think that's a mistake. If there's one person above all others Trump trusts, it's himself. Yes, the 22nd Amendment is supposed to bar him from a third term but there's no absolute guarantee that it'll still be in place come 2028 or, if it is, that the courts would enforce it given the rate at which Trump is undermining democracy and the rule of law. There are also loopholes to the 22nd that could enable Trump to run a fourth time legitimately. Again, this isn't to say it's the most likely thing to happen but it is less than the 999/1 shot it'd need to be to get a listing.

    @david_herdson Very good post, and I agree with your points, particularly the last one.

    I remember suggesting on here a few months ago that Trump would run in 2028 and being shot down for it, but I have no idea why 8 years on from his first presidency, people still expect norms and the rule of law to be upheld.

    As you say, the courts can find an excuse if they want to - and a very Republican leaning Supreme Court at that!

    You can easily imagine an argument being spun like “Well, if the people don’t want him to run again, they can vote for his opponent. Let the people decide!”

    Also, Rep. Andy Ogles has literally just introduced a constitutional amendment to allow Trump to run for a Third Term - hilariously with a specific clause aimed at stopping Barack Obama from running again.

    https://ogles.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-ogles-proposes-amending-22nd-amendment-allow-trump-serve-third-term

    Of course this amendment likely won’t go anyway but I don’t know why people just think Trump senior won’t have a crack at doing this if he can. If they listed it on the Exchange / Smarkets I’d be all over it right now, even as a trading bet.
    Nah. There’ll be an election in 2028, and Trump will not be top of the ticket.

    The democratic infrastructure of the US will have been weakened, but it will still function. Whether it functions in a way that we can describe the vote as being on a level playing field, or whether it operates in a way where the playing field is slightly skewed, it is difficult to say at this point. There is a lot of damage that can be done in the next few years.

    I don’t believe Trump can overturn the 22 Amendment. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t try some constitutional hijinks like testing the vice president route, or essentially running with a surrogate (the Putin/Medvedev gambit).
    Even during 2024's campaign, Trump suffered some ‘Biden moments’ on stage, which might have lost him the election were it not for Biden's foot being obviously deeper in the grave. I doubt Trump will be up to a third run. Trump as the Elon Musk to one of his children might be the closest he gets, and I'm not sure any of them want it (see start of thread).
    Indeed.

    The man is 78 too, and given what we know of his diet, hardly the paragon of healthy living.

    In my mind there is not one scintilla of doubt that Trump will attempt a third run. The only question is whether his health holds out and whether the institutions of America allow him to run (GOP, Congress, SCOTUS etc).

    Based on all we have seen so far the answer to the latter point must surely be 'they will allow' it. Ways will be found for such an exceptional president etc etc.


    I think rottenborough was the first to say DJT would run and win in 2024 after the Jan 6 shenanigans, to much derision and nay-saying. This guy fucks.
    Well, thankee @Dura_Ace.

    Not sure I remember definitely doing so, but certainly remember saying very early on that Vance would be POTUS one day and here we are.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,135
    HYUFD said:

    Who do Britons hold responsible for the Southport attacks?

    Axel Rudakubana: 91%*
    His parents: 72%
    Counter-terrorism services: 70%
    Mental health services: 64%
    Police: 59%
    Previous Tory govts: 43%
    His school: 43%
    Current Labour govt: 28%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750967608721514

    Do Britons think the Southport killings were a terrorist attack?

    Were murder, but not a terrorist attack: 44%
    Were a terrorist attack: 35% (66% of Reform voters think they were a terrorist attack)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750976274452938

    I don’t quite know how I feel about that poll. I suppose it’s legitimate as a general mood of the nation assessment, but there’s something slightly squiffy about it that makes me a bit uncomfortable.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,836
    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    You usually love vile loads of shit. And sociopaths.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Social media note.

    I put in a marker on Bluesky 4 days ago:

    From the Bluesky side, it had stabilised post Musk's end of the pier show at just under a million posts per day, and last night was at just over 28 million users, ticking up at perhaps 60-70k per day.
    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats


    As of this morning, it is at 29.2 million accounts, so that is plus one million in 4 days - 250k per day. Obviously encouraged by Trump, and by Musk's gesture politics. And up from ~250k in August 2024.

    So on this trend minus a chunk, for it being a flurry, we'll be looking at ~50 million accounts by Easter, and numbers plus which communities / opinion leaders / organisations shift to Bluesky will make it clearer whether this will be a broader ecosystem.

    The PB Starter Pack is here:
    https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26

    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

    For bluesky to truly succeed it desperately needs a lot of centrist and, especially, right wing accounts to move

    I see no sign of that. Bluesky is actively hostile to these people

    So we will end up with two different but similar Twitter-like places and even less interaction between left and right. Not good
    Actively hostile?

    (Looks at twitter DMs). I could bring Police Scotland to a shuddering halt if I were to report every violent threat I've received on twitter. The blame for this division lies squarely with the social media firm that allows someone who advocates for a beaver reintroductions or a cycle lane here or there to receive that volume of abuse.
    Sure, but conversely if Bluesky ever does take off with a wide range of opinion then you will get that on Bluesky as well (indeed there are already early reports of bullying and harrassment on Bluesky - which could be seen as a good sign of its growth)
    I've just joined blue-sky, and I'm underwhelmed. None of the sports people/ companies I'm interested in have a presence there. My favourite bike brand isn't on it, other brands have an account, but no posts or media.
    Barely even a decent conspiracy theory nutjob on there.
    Hopefully, it'll pick up.
    I created a Bluesky account but don't go on there. Doesn't look particularly appealing! As for Twitter, I'm enjoying the calming effect of not being exposed to fact-free shithousery.

    Debate is crucial to politics and society. I've had my own journey from Blairite to give Corbyn a try to Social Democrat - those evolutions happen thanks to debate.

    My problem with Twitter and the alt-left/alt-right is that we're not debating based on facts or evidence or science or rationale. Something is said which is demonstrably not true which becomes the credo of that politics. Disagree and be disowned. Happened extensively with those Momentum wazzocks inside Labour, and now here we are with Truss issuing "I didn't crash the economy" letters despite having to fire, u-turn and resign because she demonstrably did. And then otherwise seemingly sensible people repeating this revisionism as if its not only true but is CLEARLY the only possible truth.

    This is why I feel at home in the LibDems. We have some proper rows over policy. But they're not facts vs fiction. We agree where we are - which is more than some Labour and Tory people can manage - and then debate what we do about it.

    Chris Parr
    @chrisjparr.bsky.social‬

    Leeds becomes first Russell Group university to quit X but will stay on other platforms like Bluesky.
    Probably pandering to students.

    People quit twitter, people join it. So what. Why make such a drama out of it apart from to say "look at me I'm being worthy"

    Businesses also need to bear in mind plenty of their customers are still there and far fewer of them would be on Bluesky.

    Posting stuff to make your interns/comms team feel better about their lives may be nice but it does not help customer engagement.
    Maybe some things are more important than customer engagement?
    Yes, I agree, and what business needs such a triviality as engaging with its customers irrespective of their politics.

    I am sure you, with your long and extensive career in the private sector in businesses that deal with the general public know this only too well.
    I do have a long and extensive career in a Russell Group university like Leeds. In my corner of the Academy, the only social media platform that serves much use is LinkedIn.

    I’m not involved in undergrad courses, however. What should a university use to engage with young people? https://ukom.uk.net/snapshots/269-social-media-use-by-age.php has the average daily reach among 15-24 year olds highest for Instagram (53%), then WhatsApp, Facebook, Snapchat and TikTok (38%), all above Twitter (23%). For daily time on app, Twitter (25 minutes) does slightly better, rising to fourth, but still behind TikTok (118 minutes), Snapchat and Instagram (29 minutes).

    So, exiting Twitter isn’t going to be much of a loss for Leeds. Even if it was, I respect their decision. What do you do when the company that produces a useful product gets taken over by an anti-Semite, who may have done several Nazi salutes, and now spends all day making Nazi jokes?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,156
    As of the 75th anniversary of NATO last July:
    Here is how much the 32 NATO members spend on defense as a portion of GDP:

    9 NATO allies were spending 2 percent of GDP or more in 2021 when Trump left office. That number rose to 21 countries meeting the 2 percent goal under President Biden.

    US defense spending represents about 3.4 percent of the $28.7 trillion US economy.
    The next four top spenders in dollar terms are Germany ($97.7bn), the UK ($82.1bn), France ($64.3bn) and Poland ($34.9bn).

    As a portion of GDP, Poland (4.1 percent), Estonia (3.4 percent), the US (3.4 percent), Latvia (3.2 percent) and Greece (3.1 percent) spend the most while Spain (1.3 percent), Slovenia (1.3 percent), Luxembourg (1.3 percent), Belgium (1.3 percent) and Canada (1.4 percent) spend the least.

    Compared with 2014, Latvia, Lithuania and Hungary have had the biggest percentage increases in defense spending with Latvia and Lithuania raising their spending by more than 300 percent and Hungary increasing defense spending by 225 percent.

    https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1882469173303083156
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,533
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Brains Trust
    Brains Trust

    Is anyone familiar with the actual rules around driving after eye dilation?

    This morning I have a tartar of a nurse who says she would not want me to even be cycling .afterwards.

    A question many of my diabetes patients ask.

    The answer is that it is legal to drive when the influence of the drops has worn off, which varies with the drops used and the spectacle prescription. With me it's about 30 minutes.

    Otherwise it depends on weather conditions. If it's sunny then there is a problem of glare, and also at night with headlights, much less so on a dull overcast day.

    There is a distance vision criteria for driving, a number plate at 20 meters, but even dilated most drivers make that. The bigger problem is glare, and theoretically insurance could be invalid as under the influence of medication.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10325996/
    To extend the eyesight discussion, gratifying that the "sun was in my eyes" excuse didn't wash this time due to some good investigation by the police.

    https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/scottish-news/24880754.woman-ran-legendary-cyclist-claimed-not-see/

    Of course, it should never be an excuse - if you can't see, you shouldn't drive. And in this case, the explanation was proven to be a lie and I hope that contributes to the sentence.
    Could have been an additional charge of attempting to pervert the course of justice. It also had a credibility issue. Sun? In Glasgow?
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Which is surely the point. No one can be required to have sex against their wishes but withholding sex is an act with consequences and can be a reason for bringing a marriage to an end.

    And we don't drink cocoa, especially in bed.
    The wife of a friend of mine decided she no longer wanted sex after their second child was born. She was about 40, he maybe 42 - this was nearly 20 years ago, they’ve not had sex since

    He’s quite highly sexed, and desperately wanted sex. In the end he broached the idea of him quietly finding solace elsewhere and she said, if you do that I will divorce you and take the kids, the house, etc

    This seemed to me then, seems to me now, quite exceptionally cruel and unfair. He tolerated it because he “loved her”.

    There is a lot of unseen misery in many marriages
    And a lot of unseen happiness too. I am one of the lucky ones.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
    https://youtu.be/-VfYjPzj1Xw?si=cK5ePmyPW62VjsKF
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there were any other gestures that we could judge Musk by.
    Musk is claiming on Twix that its a classic salute from the heart to the crowd, he’s posted a video of Macron doing something very similar

    Hmm. I dunno

    Either way I would never claim someone - even my worst enemy - “doesn’t care about the Holocaust” and “is a sociopath” and “is no friend of the Jews” by watching that person at Auschwitz from ten feet away. Fatuous, offensive, tendentious drivel
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    Taz said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Social media note.

    I put in a marker on Bluesky 4 days ago:

    From the Bluesky side, it had stabilised post Musk's end of the pier show at just under a million posts per day, and last night was at just over 28 million users, ticking up at perhaps 60-70k per day.
    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats


    As of this morning, it is at 29.2 million accounts, so that is plus one million in 4 days - 250k per day. Obviously encouraged by Trump, and by Musk's gesture politics. And up from ~250k in August 2024.

    So on this trend minus a chunk, for it being a flurry, we'll be looking at ~50 million accounts by Easter, and numbers plus which communities / opinion leaders / organisations shift to Bluesky will make it clearer whether this will be a broader ecosystem.

    The PB Starter Pack is here:
    https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26

    https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

    For bluesky to truly succeed it desperately needs a lot of centrist and, especially, right wing accounts to move

    I see no sign of that. Bluesky is actively hostile to these people

    So we will end up with two different but similar Twitter-like places and even less interaction between left and right. Not good
    Actively hostile?

    (Looks at twitter DMs). I could bring Police Scotland to a shuddering halt if I were to report every violent threat I've received on twitter. The blame for this division lies squarely with the social media firm that allows someone who advocates for a beaver reintroductions or a cycle lane here or there to receive that volume of abuse.
    Sure, but conversely if Bluesky ever does take off with a wide range of opinion then you will get that on Bluesky as well (indeed there are already early reports of bullying and harrassment on Bluesky - which could be seen as a good sign of its growth)
    I've just joined blue-sky, and I'm underwhelmed. None of the sports people/ companies I'm interested in have a presence there. My favourite bike brand isn't on it, other brands have an account, but no posts or media.
    Barely even a decent conspiracy theory nutjob on there.
    Hopefully, it'll pick up.
    I created a Bluesky account but don't go on there. Doesn't look particularly appealing! As for Twitter, I'm enjoying the calming effect of not being exposed to fact-free shithousery.

    Debate is crucial to politics and society. I've had my own journey from Blairite to give Corbyn a try to Social Democrat - those evolutions happen thanks to debate.

    My problem with Twitter and the alt-left/alt-right is that we're not debating based on facts or evidence or science or rationale. Something is said which is demonstrably not true which becomes the credo of that politics. Disagree and be disowned. Happened extensively with those Momentum wazzocks inside Labour, and now here we are with Truss issuing "I didn't crash the economy" letters despite having to fire, u-turn and resign because she demonstrably did. And then otherwise seemingly sensible people repeating this revisionism as if its not only true but is CLEARLY the only possible truth.

    This is why I feel at home in the LibDems. We have some proper rows over policy. But they're not facts vs fiction. We agree where we are - which is more than some Labour and Tory people can manage - and then debate what we do about it.

    Chris Parr
    @chrisjparr.bsky.social‬

    Leeds becomes first Russell Group university to quit X but will stay on other platforms like Bluesky.
    Probably pandering to students.

    People quit twitter, people join it. So what. Why make such a drama out of it apart from to say "look at me I'm being worthy"

    Businesses also need to bear in mind plenty of their customers are still there and far fewer of them would be on Bluesky.

    Posting stuff to make your interns/comms team feel better about their lives may be nice but it does not help customer engagement.
    Probably pandering to the students union officers. 90% of the students won't gaf.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    HYUFD said:

    Who do Britons hold responsible for the Southport attacks?

    Axel Rudakubana: 91%*
    His parents: 72%
    Counter-terrorism services: 70%
    Mental health services: 64%
    Police: 59%
    Previous Tory govts: 43%
    His school: 43%
    Current Labour govt: 28%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750967608721514

    Do Britons think the Southport killings were a terrorist attack?

    Were murder, but not a terrorist attack: 44%
    Were a terrorist attack: 35% (66% of Reform voters think they were a terrorist attack)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750976274452938

    Why not 100% for the culprit?
  • viewcode said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
    https://youtu.be/-VfYjPzj1Xw?si=cK5ePmyPW62VjsKF
    We can also judge him by the fact he’s contributing to Tommy Robinson’s legal fees.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999
    HYUFD said:

    Who do Britons hold responsible for the Southport attacks?

    Axel Rudakubana: 91%*
    His parents: 72%
    Counter-terrorism services: 70%
    Mental health services: 64%
    Police: 59%
    Previous Tory govts: 43%
    His school: 43%
    Current Labour govt: 28%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750967608721514

    Do Britons think the Southport killings were a terrorist attack?

    Were murder, but not a terrorist attack: 44%
    Were a terrorist attack: 35% (66% of Reform voters think they were a terrorist attack)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750976274452938

    That is very interesting, particularly the 43% responsibility for previous Tory Governments, because both Farage and Philp have done quite a handy hatchet job on the culpability of Starmer in particular and his Government in general on the failures that led to, and the subsequent prosecution and sentencing of such a vile event.

    To an extent I believe Farage and Philp are right, in so much as if it happens on your Government's watch, your Government is responsible.
  • This week (only six months into a new parliament) has given great of ammunition for those who would prefer a reduced number of MPs.

    Earlier we had a new LD MP demanding that more women footballers appeared on birthday cards.

    We now have this gem from another obviously bored Labour MP, who has too much thinking time to himself:

    Question
    Asked by Chris Evans

    To ask the Minister for Women and Equalities, whether she plans to amend the list of protected characteristics in the Equality Act 2010 to include hair colour.

    Answer
    Answered by Anneliese Dodds

    on 23 January 2025

    The Government has no such plans.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
    Indeed.

    The Facebook post is by Julie Gray (a woman for any confused readers). She is the partner of Gidon Lev, a Holocaust survivor who was specifically invited to Musk’s visit to Auschwitz. She has also written about their experiences for the Times of Israel: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/when-a-holocaust-survivor-is-a-photo-opp/ I think she’s in a better position than most to assess Musk’s attitude to the visit.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,445

    viewcode said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
    https://youtu.be/-VfYjPzj1Xw?si=cK5ePmyPW62VjsKF
    We can also judge him by the fact he’s contributing to Tommy Robinson’s legal fees.
    Oh Lord, I didn't know that....☹️
  • This week (only six months into a new parliament) has given great of ammunition for those who would prefer a reduced number of MPs.

    Earlier we had a new LD MP demanding that more women footballers appeared on birthday cards.

    We now have this gem from another obviously bored Labour MP, who has too much thinking time to himself:

    Question
    Asked by Chris Evans

    To ask the Minister for Women and Equalities, whether she plans to amend the list of protected characteristics in the Equality Act 2010 to include hair colour.

    Answer
    Answered by Anneliese Dodds

    on 23 January 2025

    The Government has no such plans.

    Obviously you’ve never had to deal with somebody who was bullied for being a ginger.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,643
    Good example of a failure of google AI: type in "California population 2025". It says 42.5 million which is nonsense.
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
    https://youtu.be/-VfYjPzj1Xw?si=cK5ePmyPW62VjsKF
    We can also judge him by the fact he’s contributing to Tommy Robinson’s legal fees.
    Oh Lord, I didn't know that....☹️
    https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-fund-uk-far-right-ringleader-tommy-robinson-legal-fight/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

    For some for others if no adultery or domestic violence involved may just be a bump in the relationship that can be worked on.

    Roman Catholics of course still can't get a church approved divorce without a specific annulment
    You are either naive or have no real life experience of divorce
    To be fair to Roman Catholics they have stuck to their opposition to divorce for centuries, a former Pope even refusing King Henry VIII one, hence he founded the Church of England and broke with Rome
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,708
    Andy_JS said:

    Good example of a failure of google AI: type in "California population 2025". It says 42.5 million which is nonsense.

    It is probably adding in all the AI bots that can think at the average level of a US adult.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    You usually love vile loads of shit. And sociopaths.
    Isn't he defending a South African sociopathic vile s***?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445
    edited January 24

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
    Indeed.

    The Facebook post is by Julie Gray (a woman for any confused readers). She is the partner of Gidon Lev, a Holocaust survivor who was specifically invited to Musk’s visit to Auschwitz. She has also written about their experiences for the Times of Israel: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/when-a-holocaust-survivor-is-a-photo-opp/ I think she’s in a better position than most to assess Musk’s attitude to the visit.
    Yep, certainly sounds like she went into this experience with an entirely open mind

    “But [this invite to Auschwitz] was something different: Elon Musk is arguably the most powerful human on the planet. This was Elon Musk, the strange cipher of a person who sends rockets into space and platforms conspiracy theorists and white supremacists on X. We had to consider this invitation carefully.”

    Ridiculous garbage

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    edited January 24

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I'm sorry but it's the same with Ukraine. We are so determined to 'lead' with our contributions to the cause, we will do it until our own army is fighting with pitchforks. There's no concept of the national interest, none.

    You have to remember the context at the start of the SMO. It looked like it was going to be meme laden LOLfest and be over quickly. Boris was swept along with the euphoria of being in a war but without the politically troublesome cavalcade of fleg draped coffins landing at Brize that so marred the end of the Afghan adventure.

    Now it's turned into The Battle of the Heodenings, the UK government (among others) is balls deep in it with no exit strategy so all they can do is keep shoveling the cash and weapons in, to the great detriment of the British armed forces, while hoping for the best.
    Given the degree of damage being inflicted upon both the military power and the military prestige of Russia, the expenditure on the part of the UK government looks like the bargain of the century.
    Why?
    Russia has lost its frontline and best military equipment and soldiers. They are fighting with the second line now - large quantities of reworked ancient kit. The stockpiles of ancient tanks, APCs and SPGs has been massively depleted as well. The airforce is massively reduced as well. Production of new weapons is a trickle, and they are relying on North Korea for support. The Russian navy has taken massive losses as well.

    On the international arms market, their reputation has completely collapsed. Russian tanks are associated with turret tossing.

    All for the "cost", to the UK (among the rest), of mostly near time expired munitions and some training.

    Putin would now, definitely, lose a war against... Poland.
    So what? What have the military fortunes of a country which has never stood a serious chance of conventional invasion of the UK got to do with us that makes it worth denuding our own forces of military hardware and ammunition, to say nothing of just bunging £600mill at them to spend on other country's munitions without even passing through our own defence industry. The only deadly threat from Russia to the UK that I can perceive is if they start firing missiles at us, and I've seen precisely squat on defending against that possibility from our Government. And how does undermining Russia's military capability using Ukraine as the mechanism, as clever as that might be, help us with the strategic threat of China? The threat of Islamic radicalism? You know - actual issues?

    As for putting "cost" in inverted commas, you must know that's utterly ludicrous. AI (fact checking is necessary) says this about the UK's support:

    The UK Government has committed significant funds to support Ukraine’s war effort. As of the latest updates, the UK has provided or pledged around £12.8 billion in military aid. Additionally, the UK has agreed to provide an unprecedented $5 billion (£4 billion) in guarantees to enable Ukraine to access World Bank lending. More recently, the UK announced an extra £2.26 billion loan to Ukraine, bringing the total military support to over £15 billion. This includes both direct financial aid and guarantees to support Ukraine’s recovery and defense (sic).


    If it's anything like that, whilst the UK Government makes a mere £2.8bn from freezing grannies, it is a total farce, and deserves more debate than being placed in inverted commas and dismissed as 'some training and clapped out equipment' ffs.
    I would have thought it was obvious that preventing Russia rolling through Ukraine and abutting NATO territory is well worth any level of investment. A Russian victory won't end with Putin doing high fives with Kim, Xi and the ayatollahs.
    No, clearly it is NOT worth "ANY" level of investment, it is perhaps worth "some" level of investment, and what that figure should be is where the debate should take place.

    Cancer surgery, the NHS, police numbers - all areas of Government expenditure, in all countries, no matter how important, are weighed up according to a cost-benefit ratio, that's how it works. It is a recent development that some areas of expenditure are completely exempt from that calculation. Apparently the military degradation of a single far off state is of such overwhelming importance it is worth not just the hollowing out of our actual defence capabilities, but spending enough money to fill the Government's legendary black hole on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,252
    Andy_JS said:

    Good example of a failure of google AI: type in "California population 2025". It says 42.5 million which is nonsense.

    It says projected to be, which gives you a clue that it’s a prediction from the past.

    “By 2025, California's population is projected to reach 42.5 million”
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

    For some for others if no adultery or domestic violence involved may just be a bump in the relationship that can be worked on.

    Roman Catholics of course still can't get a church approved divorce without a specific annulment
    You are either naive or have no real life experience of divorce
    To be fair to Roman Catholics they have stuck to their opposition to divorce for centuries, a former Pope even refusing King Henry VIII one, hence he founded the Church of England and broke with Rome
    Didn’t he actually refuse Henry VIII an annulment?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    60 is the new 30.
    I tried the same line to the traffic cop without success.
    In Wales 20 is the new 30. The police will accept that thesis.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 796

    HYUFD said:

    Who do Britons hold responsible for the Southport attacks?

    Axel Rudakubana: 91%*
    His parents: 72%
    Counter-terrorism services: 70%
    Mental health services: 64%
    Police: 59%
    Previous Tory govts: 43%
    His school: 43%
    Current Labour govt: 28%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750967608721514

    Do Britons think the Southport killings were a terrorist attack?

    Were murder, but not a terrorist attack: 44%
    Were a terrorist attack: 35% (66% of Reform voters think they were a terrorist attack)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750976274452938

    I don’t quite know how I feel about that poll. I suppose it’s legitimate as a general mood of the nation assessment, but there’s something slightly squiffy about it that makes me a bit uncomfortable.
    A bit unfair on the parents perhaps. Definitely unfair on the govt which took over in July. Maybe you could apportion some degree of blame to the govt for the previous 14 years, but even then underfunding of organisations that made mistakes can't be a high degree of blame.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999
    edited January 24
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
    Indeed.

    The Facebook post is by Julie Gray (a woman for any confused readers). She is the partner of Gidon Lev, a Holocaust survivor who was specifically invited to Musk’s visit to Auschwitz. She has also written about their experiences for the Times of Israel: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/when-a-holocaust-survivor-is-a-photo-opp/ I think she’s in a better position than most to assess Musk’s attitude to the visit.
    Yep, certainly sounds like she went into this experience with an entirely open mind

    “But [this invite to Auschwitz] was something different: Elon Musk is arguably the most powerful human on the planet. This was Elon Musk, the strange cipher of a person who sends rockets into space and platforms conspiracy theorists and white supremacists on X. We had to consider this invitation carefully.”

    Ridiculous garbage

    You are being far too self-critical of your post.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    “Antisemitism on Twitter Before and After Elon Musk’s Acquisition”, an analysis by Boundless Israel

    https://boundlessisrael.org/paper/292/file/314

    “Analysis shows the volume of antisemitic Tweets more than doubled after Musk’s acquisition. Between June and October 27th, the weekly average of plausibly antisemitic Tweets was 6,204. From October 27th until February 9, the average was 12,762, an increase of 105%.

    “A significant surge of new accounts posting plausibly antisemitic content was identified. 3,855 such accounts were created between Oct 27 and Nov 6, an increase of 223% compared to the 11 days (the equivalent timespan) leading up to Oct 27. Whilst Musk claimed that “hate Tweets will be max deboosted”, data showed only a very small decrease in the average levels of engagement or interaction with antisemitic Tweets before and after the takeover.”
  • This week (only six months into a new parliament) has given great of ammunition for those who would prefer a reduced number of MPs.

    Earlier we had a new LD MP demanding that more women footballers appeared on birthday cards.

    We now have this gem from another obviously bored Labour MP, who has too much thinking time to himself:

    Question
    Asked by Chris Evans

    To ask the Minister for Women and Equalities, whether she plans to amend the list of protected characteristics in the Equality Act 2010 to include hair colour.

    Answer
    Answered by Anneliese Dodds

    on 23 January 2025

    The Government has no such plans.

    Obviously you’ve never had to deal with somebody who was bullied for being a ginger.
    People are bullied for having no hair, long hair, short hair, bad hair, curly hair, a mullet, being tall, being small, being thin, being fat, wearing glasses, bad teeth, bad laugh, sticking out ears, knobbly knees, wonky nose, sticky out belly button, moles, big eyebrows, little eyebrows, unusual name, a normal name that then becomes unpopular suddenly, birthmark, odd gait, high pitched voice, low voice.....

    I could go on. If you're really unlucky, it could be a combination of them. You should read some of the comments people put on here.

    You don't need to legislate it and waste time.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

    For some for others if no adultery or domestic violence involved may just be a bump in the relationship that can be worked on.

    Roman Catholics of course still can't get a church approved divorce without a specific annulment
    You are either naive or have no real life experience of divorce
    To be fair to Roman Catholics they have stuck to their opposition to divorce for centuries, a former Pope even refusing King Henry VIII one, hence he founded the Church of England and broke with Rome
    The world has moved on from dinosaurs !!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

    For some for others if no adultery or domestic violence involved may just be a bump in the relationship that can be worked on.

    Roman Catholics of course still can't get a church approved divorce without a specific annulment
    You are either naive or have no real life experience of divorce
    To be fair to Roman Catholics they have stuck to their opposition to divorce for centuries, a former Pope even refusing King Henry VIII one, hence he founded the Church of England and broke with Rome
    Didn’t he actually refuse Henry VIII an annulment?
    Which effectively has the same effect as it says the original marriage was not legitimate anyway
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,835
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "International law is preventing the UK from giving teenage killers such as Axel Rudakubana whole life orders, a Cabinet minister has said.

    John Healey, the Defence Secretary, suggested that the UN convention on children’s rights stops Britain from being able to impose unlimited sentences on under-18s."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/24/international-law-whole-life-sentence-rudakubana-healey/

    Heaven preserve us from grandstanding politicians. Rudakubana drew a 52-year minimum which is enough to be getting on with. Ministers pontificating on sentences and knife sales and widening definitions just masks the real issues around what to do about non-terrorist dangers.
    That kid was bang out of order. Fairly decent chance of getting fucked up inside anyway, I would have thought.
    Well exactly. Unless he's going into solitary, he has a very high likelihood of a very unpleasant time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,999

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

    For some for others if no adultery or domestic violence involved may just be a bump in the relationship that can be worked on.

    Roman Catholics of course still can't get a church approved divorce without a specific annulment
    You are either naive or have no real life experience of divorce
    To be fair to Roman Catholics they have stuck to their opposition to divorce for centuries, a former Pope even refusing King Henry VIII one, hence he founded the Church of England and broke with Rome
    The world has moved on from dinosaurs !!!!
    Au contraire. Welcome to MAGA USA.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,130
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Which is surely the point. No one can be required to have sex against their wishes but withholding sex is an act with consequences and can be a reason for bringing a marriage to an end.

    And we don't drink cocoa, especially in bed.
    The wife of a friend of mine decided she no longer wanted sex after their second child was born. She was about 40, he maybe 42 - this was nearly 20 years ago, they’ve not had sex since

    He’s quite highly sexed, and desperately wanted sex. In the end he broached the idea of him quietly finding solace elsewhere and she said, if you do that I will divorce you and take the kids, the house, etc

    This seemed to me then, seems to me now, quite exceptionally cruel and unfair. He tolerated it because he “loved her”.

    There is a lot of unseen misery in many marriages
    That sounds rough. No disrespect to your mate, but maybe he was doing it wrong? Presumably if she was enjoying it she wouldn't have wanted to stop. Did they try counseling? Problems in a couple's sex life often reflect broader problems, a failure to communicate etc.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,445

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
    Indeed.

    The Facebook post is by Julie Gray (a woman for any confused readers). She is the partner of Gidon Lev, a Holocaust survivor who was specifically invited to Musk’s visit to Auschwitz. She has also written about their experiences for the Times of Israel: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/when-a-holocaust-survivor-is-a-photo-opp/ I think she’s in a better position than most to assess Musk’s attitude to the visit.
    Yep, certainly sounds like she went into this experience with an entirely open mind

    “But [this invite to Auschwitz] was something different: Elon Musk is arguably the most powerful human on the planet. This was Elon Musk, the strange cipher of a person who sends rockets into space and platforms conspiracy theorists and white supremacists on X. We had to consider this invitation carefully.”

    Ridiculous garbage

    You are being far too self-critical of your post.
    A more churlish person than me might see a tiny hint of Captain Tom in the way this woman uses her “Holocaust survivor husband”

    “Let's Make Things Better
    A Holocaust Survivor's Message of Hope and Celebration of Life

    Available wherever books are sold!”

    https://www.gidonlev.com/gidon-s-story


    “Gidon & Julie: a love story

    Gidon met Julie Gray when he was looking for an editor for his book. From the moment the two met, they knew they were simpatico. They have been life partners since 2017.

    Gidon and Julie enjoy a rich and full life together, making social media content about love, hope and tolerance, and the importance of Holocaust education. And yes, Julie makes all of Gidon's scarves and sweaters!

    Gidon and Julie have presented their work in discussions about the future of Holocaust education in the digital age at Yad Vashem, The European Jewish Association, Cyberwell, the ADL, Sussex University, and Hebrew University. They have collaborated with The Feel Good Network, End Jewish Hate, the Claims Conference, Jewish Unpacked, and others. “

    About Julie Gray:

    “Julie Gray is the force behind the viral social media accounts of her life partner, Holocaust survivor Gidon Lev. Her innovative, compelling content and meaningful engagement about Holocaust education and human rights advocacy have educated millions of social media users and attracted significant press coverage. Julie worked closely with gaming pioneer Luc Bernard to create a multi-panel display about Gidon Lev and the Theresienstadt concentration camp in Fortnite's Voices of the Forgotten Museum”

    SHE WORKED CLOSELY WITH A GAMING PIONEER TO DO A DISPLAY ABOUT THERESIENSTADT FOR FORTNITE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,652

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

    For some for others if no adultery or domestic violence involved may just be a bump in the relationship that can be worked on.

    Roman Catholics of course still can't get a church approved divorce without a specific annulment
    You are either naive or have no real life experience of divorce
    To be fair to Roman Catholics they have stuck to their opposition to divorce for centuries, a former Pope even refusing King Henry VIII one, hence he founded the Church of England and broke with Rome
    The world has moved on from dinosaurs !!!!
    There are still 1.3 billion Roman Catholics worldwide
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,474
    Of slightly niche interest, but I was surprised to find out that it is seven years today since Mark E Smith died. It doesn't feel like it. Anyway, his Wikipedia page is interesting (everything about him is interesting) - to keep this vaguely related to this site, these are his political views, which could stand as a proxy for the views of much of Labour's traditional base over the last 50 years:

    Originally a Labour supporter, Smith left the party during the Falklands War (which he supported), then became further disillusioned with Labour during the Tony Blair era.[67] In the 1997 election, he voted for the Conservative Party in opposition to Blair.[68] Asked during a mid-1980s interview with Smash Hits as to what policies he would adopt if he became Prime Minister, he said: "I'd halve the price of cigarettes, double the tax on health food, then I'd declare war on France."[69] In a 2012 interview, Smith jokingly stated he would put the Queen in charge of Britain when asked the same question.[70] Smith also expressed support for the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. Although a longstanding member of the Musicians Union, he criticised their political outlook, saying, "all they say is vote Corbyn and stay in the European Union.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_E._Smith
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    On Elon Musk at Auschwitz, which he visited after being antisemitic on Twitter: https://www.facebook.com/JulieGray972/posts/pfbid02kefLReSxVtxhz11eEEznD4ko4RPAY55keYwgYc6W1Y2maN8A2RgxgHDiHBV6oviUl

    “I see people posting that Elon was at Auschwitz this time last year - therefore, his recent "gesture" is not antisemitic. I was there, too. Last year. With Elon. I am embarrassed that I have photos of this on my phone. My love, Gidon Lev, was the "special guest" of this photo-op event. We thought, at the time, that it would be good publicity. But I would not share the photo today. I chatted with Elon Musk. I spent hours with him and walked with him through Auschwitz. I stood with him, looking at the nauseating heaps of hair, luggage, and shoes flooded with violet light meant to preserve it.
    Is Musk an antisemite? People, actually, it's worse - he doesn't care whatsoever. Elon, father of "little X" as he described his freezing cold son to me, literally does not care. He was unmoved by the experience. For Gidon, to be in the place where his father, Ernst, died on a death march - whether shot by the side of the road or having simply collapsed - was a huge deal. Elon did not care. He was about his press junket and his bodyguards. I was ten feet from him as he posed for the cameras of his entourage. He was utterly detached. He cared about how he looked. When he placed a wreath at Auschwitz and Gidon was overlooked, he walked away with the cameras whirring. This is Elon Musk. A sociopath, if ever there was one. To deduce, from this visit, that he is a friend of the Jews is desperately naive.”

    What a vile load of shite

    How does this guy know what Elon felt about Auschwitz? Did he have a handy window for looking into Elon’s soul? From “ten feet away”?

    Ugh
    If only there was some other gesture that we could judge Musk by.
    Indeed.

    The Facebook post is by Julie Gray (a woman for any confused readers). She is the partner of Gidon Lev, a Holocaust survivor who was specifically invited to Musk’s visit to Auschwitz. She has also written about their experiences for the Times of Israel: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/when-a-holocaust-survivor-is-a-photo-opp/ I think she’s in a better position than most to assess Musk’s attitude to the visit.
    Yep, certainly sounds like she went into this experience with an entirely open mind

    “But [this invite to Auschwitz] was something different: Elon Musk is arguably the most powerful human on the planet. This was Elon Musk, the strange cipher of a person who sends rockets into space and platforms conspiracy theorists and white supremacists on X. We had to consider this invitation carefully.”

    Ridiculous garbage

    You are being far too self-critical of your post.
    A more churlish person than me might see a tiny hint of Captain Tom in the way this woman uses her “Holocaust survivor husband”

    “Let's Make Things Better
    A Holocaust Survivor's Message of Hope and Celebration of Life

    Available wherever books are sold!”

    https://www.gidonlev.com/gidon-s-story


    “Gidon & Julie: a love story

    Gidon met Julie Gray when he was looking for an editor for his book. From the moment the two met, they knew they were simpatico. They have been life partners since 2017.

    Gidon and Julie enjoy a rich and full life together, making social media content about love, hope and tolerance, and the importance of Holocaust education. And yes, Julie makes all of Gidon's scarves and sweaters!

    Gidon and Julie have presented their work in discussions about the future of Holocaust education in the digital age at Yad Vashem, The European Jewish Association, Cyberwell, the ADL, Sussex University, and Hebrew University. They have collaborated with The Feel Good Network, End Jewish Hate, the Claims Conference, Jewish Unpacked, and others. “

    About Julie Gray:

    “Julie Gray is the force behind the viral social media accounts of her life partner, Holocaust survivor Gidon Lev. Her innovative, compelling content and meaningful engagement about Holocaust education and human rights advocacy have educated millions of social media users and attracted significant press coverage. Julie worked closely with gaming pioneer Luc Bernard to create a multi-panel display about Gidon Lev and the Theresienstadt concentration camp in Fortnite's Voices of the Forgotten Museum”

    SHE WORKED CLOSELY WITH A GAMING PIONEER TO DO A DISPLAY ABOUT THERESIENSTADT FOR FORTNITE
    You’re sounding like a deluded Corbynite trying to deny any antisemitism from their guy.

    Re-evaluate your life choices.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,541
    edited January 24

    HYUFD said:

    Who do Britons hold responsible for the Southport attacks?

    Axel Rudakubana: 91%*
    His parents: 72%
    Counter-terrorism services: 70%
    Mental health services: 64%
    Police: 59%
    Previous Tory govts: 43%
    His school: 43%
    Current Labour govt: 28%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750967608721514

    Do Britons think the Southport killings were a terrorist attack?

    Were murder, but not a terrorist attack: 44%
    Were a terrorist attack: 35% (66% of Reform voters think they were a terrorist attack)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1882750976274452938

    That is very interesting, particularly the 43% responsibility for previous Tory Governments, because both Farage and Philp have done quite a handy hatchet job on the culpability of Starmer in particular and his Government in general on the failures that led to, and the subsequent prosecution and sentencing of such a vile event.

    To an extent I believe Farage and Philp are right, in so much as if it happens on your Government's watch, your Government is responsible.
    I think most people would agree that Labour have been underwhelming (at least), but 25 days is rather tight for reforming the criminal justice system/Prevent/mental health/counter-terror policing in a way that would have prevented this attack from taking place.

    Frankly the 28% who think it was Labour's fault are a lost cause, and perhaps a guide for a Reform ceiling.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,745
    I see Leon has moved on to slurring Holocaust educators, but I can’t decide if that’s more or less ridiculous than Sandpit claiming Jan 6 was mostly peaceful.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,130
    Cookie said:

    Of slightly niche interest, but I was surprised to find out that it is seven years today since Mark E Smith died. It doesn't feel like it. Anyway, his Wikipedia page is interesting (everything about him is interesting) - to keep this vaguely related to this site, these are his political views, which could stand as a proxy for the views of much of Labour's traditional base over the last 50 years:

    Originally a Labour supporter, Smith left the party during the Falklands War (which he supported), then became further disillusioned with Labour during the Tony Blair era.[67] In the 1997 election, he voted for the Conservative Party in opposition to Blair.[68] Asked during a mid-1980s interview with Smash Hits as to what policies he would adopt if he became Prime Minister, he said: "I'd halve the price of cigarettes, double the tax on health food, then I'd declare war on France."[69] In a 2012 interview, Smith jokingly stated he would put the Queen in charge of Britain when asked the same question.[70] Smith also expressed support for the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. Although a longstanding member of the Musicians Union, he criticised their political outlook, saying, "all they say is vote Corbyn and stay in the European Union.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_E._Smith

    Labour also supported the Falklands War.
    I've tried to like The Fall over the years but gave up.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We need to leave the ECHR now!

    This ruling will lead to anarchy.

    A French woman who stopped having sex with her husband has won a ruling from Europe's highest human rights court, which has stated she should not have been blamed for their divorce.

    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) sided with the 69-year-old on Thursday, saying courts should not consider a refusal to engage in sexual relations as grounds for fault in divorce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxel6zkwwxo

    After 60 most married couples go to bed with cocoa and a book anyway, probably what made the Court come to its judgement
    The ruling is not relevant to the UK as the UK has no fault divorces
    Unlike more Roman Catholic France and Italy and Ireland still yes
    Saves a lot of unnecessary acrimony in a process that is stressful for those concerned

    For some for others if no adultery or domestic violence involved may just be a bump in the relationship that can be worked on.

    Roman Catholics of course still can't get a church approved divorce without a specific annulment
    You are either naive or have no real life experience of divorce
    To be fair to Roman Catholics they have stuck to their opposition to divorce for centuries, a former Pope even refusing King Henry VIII one, hence he founded the Church of England and broke with Rome
    Didn’t he actually refuse Henry VIII an annulment?
    Probably, because of his ginger hair.
This discussion has been closed.