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The Trump dynasty – politicalbetting.com
The Trump dynasty – politicalbetting.com
Trump Jr. on poll showing him top 2028 GOP candidate: "Don’t get me in trouble" https://t.co/53FQL8Ky2o
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Stay safe mate.
This is one I have yet to see anti-Trumpers grapple with - what happens if the bugger or his acolytes get voted back in.
The mainstream media and business are all kissing the ring and sucking the anointed dick, whilst anti-Trumpers are stoking up Court challengers and similar to slow the gradual collapse down by obfuscation and enforcing law, in anticipation of the mid-terms or end-term elections.
But what if the Usonians, on average, actually want to bend over and get Trumped good and hard?
“Manufacturers have entered the New Year in a grim mood. Confidence has evaporated over the last three months as orders have dropped,” said Ben Jones, economist at the business group.
“A fall in domestic deliveries comes amid widespread concerns over the impact of the increase in National Insurance contributions, minimum wages and changes to employment law on firms’ operating costs.”
Much of the global manufacturing sector is struggling with German industry gripped by high energy prices, weak demand and stiff competition from Chinese car manufacturers, while China itself is also battling against an economic slump caused in part by a property crisis.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/factories-suffer-fastest-slump-in-orders-since-covid-hit/ar-AA1xK26z?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c4db0e3a75ca4649b6cc76d7b50f58bb&ei=13
Walk down the street and people run out of the shops to have a look. One guy did a dangerous u-turn just to have a second glimpse. Children almost faint
I mean, it could be my ruthless good looks but I don’t think so
Possibly the last white person here was George Orwell. A copper stationed in Twantay in the 1920s
Orders drying up, labour costs up and nobody wanting to invest.
So much for growth growth growth.
And while I complain about manufacturing from what I read the poor sods in retail are having it much worse
In which case, we can expect a different SeanT returning home...
One shell of it collapsed a couple of years ago, and now the remaining side you can see through the gaps) blew down.
I got a nice letter from the neighbours.
Elon Musk ‘is a mad extremist spreading poison’
Head of the Buchenwald concentration camp memorial condemns the billionaire after his endorsement of the hard-right Alternative for Germany
https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/elon-musk-is-a-mad-extremist-spreading-poison-7b2g79mbp
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/steep-drop-in-consumer-confidence-amid-concerns-of-dark-days-ahead/ar-AA1xKINy?ocid=BingNewsSerp
I am leaving end of next month where I work, Yesterday due to fallin order book and no real sign of an uptick they announced compulsory redundancies. I have been there over a decade and this has never happened before. The assumption is orders will pick up but this has been said for 12 months and it just does not happen and no sign of it happening.
We sell consumables and equipment. We have not had an order for a piece of equipment for over 12 months now. Our customers have simply got no capex expenditure at the moment. We have only had a few enquiries too.
The equipment we sell is the route to market for alot of our consumables. The razor and the razorblades analogy and it is just not happening.
Reeves is definitely now making the right noises about growth and seems to be pivoting into the right approach however the damage has been done in the past 6 months.
It is unbelievably poor. About half the GDP per capita of India. And you can see it
I think there is an interesting story here about people who can WFH and those who can't. The buses and trains coming off is causing a great deal of strife, particularly at a time of the year when people are struggling with bills and need every shift they can get.
In Edinburgh journeys are 39% public transport, 40% walking and cycling, 21% car.
Sad fact is Reeves will need to reverse lots of her policies ( see non doms ) and its whether she has the courage to recognise she was wrong and change. I doubt it.
I wonder if Myanmar js the worst-governed-nation-on Earth. It’s a kind of slo-mo Asian Venezuela
A name that will reassure low-information voters- tick
But can he do what Donald Trump SenIleior can do, and hold a stadium of the faithful in his hand?
The record of charismatic strongmen being able to transfer their gift to their favoured successor (whether that's their actual son, or the son they never had) isn't great.
And it looks like she really didn’t get any growth ideas of any value from the regulators. That’s a shock isn’t it 🤔
https://x.com/sam_dumitriu/status/1882378861285191832?s=61
There is a lot of continuity in post colonial states.
Is the Kim dynasty the most successful non-royal dynasty in history? Maybe that’s why Trump feels he had a special relationship with the rocket man.
That said blue collar had the advantage during Covid because they were allowed to move around and avoid home grounding and cabin fever.
Ivanka is more likely, as DJT at least seems to like her.
"The West" is code for Germany. Whilst a couple of cars - Q4, i4 - have sold in decent numbers, my understanding is that a lot of money is lost on them. VAG, Mercedes & BMW have a simple choice - adapt or die. Stop building cars based around yuour previous business model - that model is dying.
Same with Japan. Toyota idiotically pursued hydrogen despite its failure a decade ago, or to keep selling Hybrid Synergy Drive-equipped cars. Honda innovated and got scared, Nissan think the market owes them payback for their 2010 technology.
Good morning, everybody.
I put in a marker on Bluesky 4 days ago:
From the Bluesky side, it had stabilised post Musk's end of the pier show at just under a million posts per day, and last night was at just over 28 million users, ticking up at perhaps 60-70k per day.
https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats
As of this morning, it is at 29.2 million accounts, so that is plus one million in 4 days - 250k per day. Obviously encouraged by Trump, and by Musk's gesture politics. And up from ~250k in August 2024.
So on this trend minus a chunk, for it being a flurry, we'll be looking at ~50 million accounts by Easter, and numbers plus which communities / opinion leaders / organisations shift to Bluesky will make it clearer whether this will be a broader ecosystem.
The PB Starter Pack is here:
https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26
https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats
She needs to do far more but over the last week, week and a half, she does seem to be doing some positive things on growth.
I get the lack of confidence. She has done little to gain any and we are reaping the consequences of the doom and gloom rhetoric when labour came to power however if she does turn it around and does start doing positive things on growth then she has much to gain.
17 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVlTZmrj2Vg
Never got stopped by plod one either.
Not all resource states fall into this trap, but a high proportion do.
https://x.com/robbystarbuck/status/1882529493652484309
Burma has essentially endured a civil war between all these since the British departed. Add in some desperately stupid socialism and bone headed autocracy and a nation which should be one of the richest in Asia has a sub Saharan gdp per capita of about $1200 - stupefyingly low - even Laos is richer
I see no sign of that. Bluesky is actively hostile to these people
So we will end up with two different but similar Twitter-like places and even less interaction between left and right. Not good
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1882609735347978351
Russians gave unfettered access to military secrets to thousands of North Korean soldiers. This includes minefield maps, electronic warfare specs, and technical manuals, all without classified markings. Ukraine now has the data.
We will see but I think it is a lot of hoping from Bluesky fans and Bluesky does not seem especially welcoming of diverse views.
Chasing the rich away may give warm fuzzy feelings to the Left. Until they have to start explaining the closure of hospital wards. Utter pillocks.
Now getting some facile questions about Trump pardoning Ross Ulbricht from the guy who presents Lingo.
I agree that there needs to be some grit in the oyster, but then twitter/X seems to have become entirely grit (or rhyming word). The only reason I haven’t transferred to Bluesky is that I’m a lazy cnut.
TUSC on Twitter was one of the strongest critics. We need a new party of the left apparently, as Reeves is a Tory.
There is a view on the left, or a part of it, that the wealthy pay no tax at all.
I mean, I know you think anything Trump and the GOP does is golden, but even you're sifting the dregs now.
So what have the Germans got besides status? Performance! Except, oh dear, EVs accelerate faster.
Comfort? EVs have less engine noise to mask and engine vibration to damp.
So even quite basic EVs have all the things that for ICE cars commanded a premium: badge appeal; luxury; performance.
Sri Lanka is another candidate
That said, the idea might be less appealing now it means being ultimately governed by Keir Starmer. As he’d probably try and give them - plus a free pot noodle - to Pyongyang
If someone close to me was running for office and made a specific pledge to me about something to do with my family, being presented with the pen used to sign the order would be a massive privilege.
RFK Jr saw both his father and his uncle assassinated.
And others are starting to notice what PB discussed years ago: that taxing ecommerce in the shape of Apple or Amazon runs slap-bang into American protectionism. The White House believes either that their tech giants should not be taxed, or that they should be taxed in America on worldwide profits (and is quite up to the task of holding both positions simultaneously).
Big powers realised quickly enough, (with the exception of Russia), that it's far cheaper to buy resources from the local elites who largely administered the colonies, rather than recruit an army of occupation to extract those resources.
(Looks at twitter DMs). I could bring Police Scotland to a shuddering halt if I were to report every violent threat I've received on twitter. The blame for this division lies squarely with the social media firm that allows someone who advocates for a beaver reintroductions or a cycle lane here or there to receive that volume of abuse.
The party is totally captured by Trump now and if he directs his base to support his son (with a “I will be behind him” messaging to suggest he will still have a sizeable influence) I think they’ll go for it. Vance is just useful for the now - the track record of Trump continuing to back those he’s worked with is very patchy at best. He and the family will turn on him if/when it is expedient to do so.
Because Bluesky is even less like reality than TwiX
On the other hand it is definitely a nicer, calmer place to chat about fairly non contentious intellectual things. To meet archeologists and lexicologists
It’s a terrible place to have a political argument
RFK Jr has killed many people to make money through his antivax grift. You get excited over a pen.
For those earning over £3m a quarter pay about 40% tax, whereas another quarter pay just 10% tax.
That 10% is a problem that has to be tackled.
One of Trump’s supporters had her account blocked within minutes of her creating it, having posted precisely nothing.
https://x.com/lauraloomer/status/1873538332308992320
It is also incredibly hostile to certain *subjects*
https://x.com/CLondoner92/status/1882167603788906521
@CLondoner92
#TfL Freedom of Information release:
Proposed London Overground line names in 2015 when Boris Johnson was Mayor
"We can confirm that a total of £10,175 was spent on customer research on the proposed line name changes."
https://t.co/OWmUOuXPpu
Barking line
East London line
Emerson Park line
Lea Valley line
North London line
Watford local line
Here is a 30-seconds video of a 2016 primary debate in which Trump destroyed Jeb Bush by attacking his brother, GWB.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/31ZW8Cs7lNY
Record numbers of firms in distress, particularly in these sectors. It is really hard to see how we avoid a recession early this year and a significant jump in unemployment.
CPAC
Paypal
Uber
Lyft
GoFundMe
Venmo
Instagram
Facebook
A court (evicted by US Marshal Service)
You start to wonder if it's a Laura Loomer problem rather than a Bluesky one.
Barely even a decent conspiracy theory nutjob on there.
Hopefully, it'll pick up.
Point 1: "[TSE's] expectation is that the Republican nominee in 2028 will be whomever Donald Trump anoints as his successor". Yes, assuming he's around (a not-insignificant actuarial risk for the oldest-ever president at inauguration), his primary interest will be in protecting himself, which means he will want someone still personally loyal.
Point 2: "[TSE] think[s] he’ll try and it keep within the family". Certainly, Trump operates court politics and trusts blood over money, and money over party. I agree his first preference will be family. Mafia, innit?
Point 3: "which brings us to Donald Trump, Jr.". Or perhaps back to him because who else is there? Eric is, to put it politely, not up to it. Ivanka was trialled during Trump-45 and exposed as wanting. Barron is too young. Tiffany is not being pushed forward. Kushner seems uninterested. But Don has been loyally pushing his dad's line and is, at the moment, the only plausible family successor. Whether he has the skills to be anything other than his father's mouthpiece is another question: being a candidate is more than being a proxy.
Point 4: "so you may wish to take the 36s on Betfair on him winning the 2028 election". Yes. Remember, this is less than a 3% implied chance. Backing it does not mean it's going to happen or is even likely to happen; just that the chances of it not happening are less than 97%. There are lots of ways Trump-48 could go wrong; the question is about putting numbers to them.
And now the Big But, which we touched on earlier. This is Succession and about who best protects Trump's interests. If he doesn't feel any of his children or relations are up to it, he will go elsewhere, whatever his first instincts and preference. That may be Vance but it also may not be, given Trump's personal disloyalty and capriciousness. 3.8 is way too short to be value.
One other point: Donald Trump snr isn't listed in the odds. I think that's a mistake. If there's one person above all others Trump trusts, it's himself. Yes, the 22nd Amendment is supposed to bar him from a third term but there's no absolute guarantee that it'll still be in place come 2028 or, if it is, that the courts would enforce it given the rate at which Trump is undermining democracy and the rule of law. There are also loopholes to the 22nd that could enable Trump to run a fourth time legitimately. Again, this isn't to say it's the most likely thing to happen but it is less than the 999/1 shot it'd need to be to get a listing.
However whether any of them has a chance in 2028 will depend mainly on the economy and whether Trump's tariffs have increased manufacturing jobs more than cost of living
"donald trump jr.: Poll shows Donald Trump Jr. is the top Republican candidate for 2028 U.S elections; here's what he has to say - The Economic Times" https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/poll-shows-donald-trump-jr-is-the-top-republican-candidate-for-2028-u-s-elections-heres-what-he-has-to-say/articleshow/117497603.cms
Is it "persons born in the United States who are foreigners (aliens) who belong to the families of ambassadors or foreign ministers"
Or is it "persons born in the United States who are foreigners, aliens [and those] who belong to the families of ambassadors or foreign ministers"
Until now the former has been the interpretation and to my eyes it looks the more natural one, but Americans do love leaving out the "and".