Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Well, he went a little funny in the head. You know. Just a little funny. – politicalbetting.com

13»

Comments

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,159
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    I don’t think Europe at large has been “freeloading” on the U.S.

    The U.S. has underpinned European security in order to maintain the “exorbitant privilege” of dollar hegemony.

    In exchange, Europe has very largely itself maintained its support for said hegemony and its various institutions.

    That's a baseless conspiracy theory.

    There's no evidence at all that Truman thought about the dollar at all when setting up the American presence in Europe, nor that subsequent American governments have spent trillions of dollars keeping troops there just to preserve their currency's role.

    They are there because the experience of the Second World War and Stalinist aggression and tyranny in Eastern Europe made it so obvious that totalitarian tyranny poses a mortal threat even to a country shielded by two huge oceans that even the most ignorant, isolated, parochial American had to realise that it would be cheaper and more certain to confront the Communists with allies before the Rhine rather than without them on the Atlantic seaboard.

    The global role of the dollar (whose benefit to America is wildly exaggerated anyway) owes nothing to the American military presence in Europe. Instead it is due to the size of America's economy and the depth and openness of her capital markets.
    And the willingness of US allies to cooperate. Without such cooperation the US debt would become increasingly unsustainable. Trump intends to spend money like a drunken sailor. Without goodwill, the bond market may scrap the US risk discount. That could leave the USD in mid air and create a US bond rout that will make the 1970s look like the roaring 1920s.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Pulpstar said:

    Yokes said:

    Somebody should take a look at the job figures for December, not very good.

    The problem is that if there’s too many job vacancies then workers demand payrises and costs goes up and business demands immigration or complains about the youth not wanting to work.

    If there is too few job vacancies then payrises decrease or disappear and workers are miserable.

    What do we actually want, as a nation? We can’t have simultaneously low inflation, large pay growth, tons of jobs, no immigration, and tons of growth, yet that is apparently what the nation wants.
    That's why Reeves is doing the right thing by taxing jobs. We need to clamp down on the Deliveroo economy and reduce low value-added employment.
    We need to clamp down on the Deliveroo economy by raising a tax the likes of Deliveroo are designed to dodge and taxing legitimate, steady, PAYE employment more instead?
    Err yes, are the likes of Deliveroo even affected by the employer NI changes ?!??

    This is a genuine q, I suspect the answer is no but I'd love to be wrong.
    Deliveroo deliver Dominos deliver Diabetes and Obesity.

    A combination of apps, cheap pizza, relentless advertising (I get leaflets every other week) and door-to-door delivery are killing us.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    Cicero said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    I don’t think Europe at large has been “freeloading” on the U.S.

    The U.S. has underpinned European security in order to maintain the “exorbitant privilege” of dollar hegemony.

    In exchange, Europe has very largely itself maintained its support for said hegemony and its various institutions.

    That's a baseless conspiracy theory.

    There's no evidence at all that Truman thought about the dollar at all when setting up the American presence in Europe, nor that subsequent American governments have spent trillions of dollars keeping troops there just to preserve their currency's role.

    They are there because the experience of the Second World War and Stalinist aggression and tyranny in Eastern Europe made it so obvious that totalitarian tyranny poses a mortal threat even to a country shielded by two huge oceans that even the most ignorant, isolated, parochial American had to realise that it would be cheaper and more certain to confront the Communists with allies before the Rhine rather than without them on the Atlantic seaboard.

    The global role of the dollar (whose benefit to America is wildly exaggerated anyway) owes nothing to the American military presence in Europe. Instead it is due to the size of America's economy and the depth and openness of her capital markets.
    And the willingness of US allies to cooperate. Without such cooperation the US debt would become increasingly unsustainable. Trump intends to spend money like a drunken sailor. Without goodwill, the bond market may scrap the US risk discount. That could leave the USD in mid air and create a US bond rout that will make the 1970s look like the roaring 1920s.
    Harsh, Cicero.

    Drunken sailors only spend the money they've got.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,970

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    Trump is reprehensible but it's clear that Europe are far more comfortable attacking him than they are China or Russia, which are much much worse.
    Two things to say about that. Firstly, it is hard to 'attack' Russia and China. It is easier to 'attack' America as our connections are much more direct, both financially and especially culturally. Secondly, both Russia and China are statically awful - they were awful, and remain awful. Whereas the USA is in rather rapid decline into shitdom.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,159

    "In all honesty, that is all the time i have my dear" says Jan 6 whacko after not answering dozens of questions.

    Just seen headline ticker: "WOKE BISHOP GIVES TRUMP AN EARFUL" on GB News :lol:
    The balanced and mature journalism our country needs...
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all from Aotearoa :)

    The evolution of the relationship between wealth, power and politics is fascinating. Money talks, as a wise man once said, and a lot of money buys a lot of words and a powerful voice. In the past, such voice was often not audible to the public but heard a lot behind the scenes. Those with wealth have always been able to gain access to those with power and either overtly or covertly influenced policy.

    The wealthy (and that includes powerful trade unions in the recent past) have never had a problem putting that view across and have traded on the politics of aspiration with great success. Cutting your taxes helps you - yes but it helps me rather more in quantative terms.

    One could argue the best way to a small fortune might be to start with a large fortune and vote Labour but wealth hasn’t been and isn’t always self motivated by any stretch. Victorian Liberal philanthropists built many schools and libraries and we know even now philanthropy is alive and well.

    The relationship between business and politics is also evolving - Trump has been a businessman, the current New Zealand Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, was once the CEO of Air New Zealand and it’s the case as voters feel let down by what is perceived as a “political elite” out of touch with the realities of modern life, they look to other potential leaders.

    Running a Government isn’t the same as running a business, however. In business you can command and cajole, in politics you have to persuade and argue.

    Luxon's problem is the PR system in NZ which means he needs partners to govern, partners he could govern better without. He also faces a GE cycle of every three years which limits what one parliament can do. Now it is unlikely the memories of the Adern years will have completely faded after three years, they could well have done after six. How is the renegotiation of the treaty of Waitangi going ?
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all from Aotearoa :)

    The evolution of the relationship between wealth, power and politics is fascinating. Money talks, as a wise man once said, and a lot of money buys a lot of words and a powerful voice. In the past, such voice was often not audible to the public but heard a lot behind the scenes. Those with wealth have always been able to gain access to those with power and either overtly or covertly influenced policy.

    The wealthy (and that includes powerful trade unions in the recent past) have never had a problem putting that view across and have traded on the politics of aspiration with great success. Cutting your taxes helps you - yes but it helps me rather more in quantative terms.

    One could argue the best way to a small fortune might be to start with a large fortune and vote Labour but wealth hasn’t been and isn’t always self motivated by any stretch. Victorian Liberal philanthropists built many schools and libraries and we know even now philanthropy is alive and well.

    The relationship between business and politics is also evolving - Trump has been a businessman, the current New Zealand Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, was once the CEO of Air New Zealand and it’s the case as voters feel let down by what is perceived as a “political elite” out of touch with the realities of modern life, they look to other potential leaders.

    Running a Government isn’t the same as running a business, however. In business you can command and cajole, in politics you have to persuade and argue.

    Luxon's problem is the PR system in NZ which means he needs partners to govern, partners he could govern better without. He also faces a GE cycle of every three years which limits what one parliament can do. Now it is unlikely the memories of the Adern years will have completely faded after three years, they could well have done after six. How is the renegotiation of the treaty of Waitangi going ?
    I make no bones about it in the choice Badenoch, Farage or Luxton for UK prime minister I would take Luxton by a country mile. He is having to sort out drift in NZ which goes all the way back to their Starmer, Lange.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,767
    I see Starmer is going to have a crackdown on knives according to the press today. After the last one last year. You’d think Amazon was responsible for the death of those girls from some of the headlines today. Oh, and a further crackdown on social media giants showing children harmful content is promised. After the last one.

    The govt have their scapegoats. Something needs to be done. This is something.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,767

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    Trump is reprehensible but it's clear that Europe are far more comfortable attacking him than they are China or Russia, which are much much worse.
    Two things to say about that. Firstly, it is hard to 'attack' Russia and China. It is easier to 'attack' America as our connections are much more direct, both financially and especially culturally. Secondly, both Russia and China are statically awful - they were awful, and remain awful. Whereas the USA is in rather rapid decline into shitdom.
    It’s hard to attack Russia and China, so let’s not bother and just attack an ally. Nice one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    Trump is reprehensible but it's clear that Europe are far more comfortable attacking him than they are China or Russia, which are much much worse.
    Two things to say about that. Firstly, it is hard to 'attack' Russia and China. It is easier to 'attack' America as our connections are much more direct, both financially and especially culturally. Secondly, both Russia and China are statically awful - they were awful, and remain awful. Whereas the USA is in rather rapid decline into shitdom.
    It’s hard to attack Russia and China, so let’s not bother and just attack an ally. Nice one.
    Is that advice for us, or for Donald Trump?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    According to the I, house prices could be pushed higher if mortgage rules are eased. Who knew 🤣
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,996

    Trump just announced 3 trillion of investment declared today and upto 7 trillion by the end of the week

    He said this is all at the expense of China

    Maybe there is a lesson here for Reeves

    Do not produce an anti growth jobs budget, scare away millionaires and non doms, but get them all to invest through tax breaks and welcome them with open arms

    You do understand, don’t you, that Trump is lying/stupid? That this is *not* at the expense of the Chinese, but is at the expense of American consumers? And that Trump is going to massively increase the US deficit?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,996
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    Trump is reprehensible but it's clear that Europe are far more comfortable attacking him than they are China or Russia, which are much much worse.
    Two things to say about that. Firstly, it is hard to 'attack' Russia and China. It is easier to 'attack' America as our connections are much more direct, both financially and especially culturally. Secondly, both Russia and China are statically awful - they were awful, and remain awful. Whereas the USA is in rather rapid decline into shitdom.
    It’s hard to attack Russia and China, so let’s not bother and just attack an ally. Nice one.
    We have extensive sanctions against Russia and are funnelling arms to a country at war with them. I think it’s a bit odd to suggest we are “more comfortable attacking [Trump] than […] Russia”. We are definitely more comfortable attacking Russia.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,996

    Trump - sanctions on Russia if they do not do a deal

    There are already sanctions on Russia. What does he mean?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,564
    Taz said:

    I see Starmer is going to have a crackdown on knives according to the press today. After the last one last year. You’d think Amazon was responsible for the death of those girls from some of the headlines today. Oh, and a further crackdown on social media giants showing children harmful content is promised. After the last one.

    The govt have their scapegoats. Something needs to be done. This is something.

    So we can look forward to chefs being arrested for the crime of travelling to work on the bus or the Tube?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,996

    Taz said:

    I see Starmer is going to have a crackdown on knives according to the press today. After the last one last year. You’d think Amazon was responsible for the death of those girls from some of the headlines today. Oh, and a further crackdown on social media giants showing children harmful content is promised. After the last one.

    The govt have their scapegoats. Something needs to be done. This is something.

    Its all displacement activity. Just like scandal of grooming gangs descended into Musk is interfering and doesn't understand.

    All the yutt with their zombie knives aren't getting those off Amazon, they will get them from dodgy resellers from social media who won't be asking for two forms of id, a live video, etc etc etc. All that has happened now is Maureen who wants a new kitchen knife will now have to jump through some more hurdles to get it off Amazon.

    And the issue with the Southport terrorist of course isn't really that he got a knife of Amazon.
    So, what *is* the issue?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,670

    Trump - sanctions on Russia if they do not do a deal

    There are already sanctions on Russia. What does he mean?
    We're going to be asking ourselves that a lot in the years to come, I suspect.

    And often, the answer will be that nobody, not even the President, knows.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,564

    Trump - sanctions on Russia if they do not do a deal

    There are already sanctions on Russia. What does he mean?
    Well Biden announced new sanctions on Russia only a couple of weeks ago, related to shipping.

    https://gcaptain.com/china-and-india-scramble-for-crude-as-sanctioned-russian-tankers-turn-back/

    There’s plenty more tools in the sanctions box if they want to use them.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 130
    Once all the headless chicken stuff has settled down, what's going to happen to the dollar?

    Heard from ex-work colleagues that the company which was sold to a US listed company for top-dollar (pun) a couple of years ago is likely to be back on sale again. Apparently their investors think the inevitable rise in the $ will reduce the value of earnings transferred from the UK and reduce the value of the investment. They seem willing to take a $300mn hit when they sell.

    May just be an isolated issue with this company/market or the harbinger of a trend with funds wanting to chase US investment opportunities.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited 7:36AM

    Taz said:

    I see Starmer is going to have a crackdown on knives according to the press today. After the last one last year. You’d think Amazon was responsible for the death of those girls from some of the headlines today. Oh, and a further crackdown on social media giants showing children harmful content is promised. After the last one.

    The govt have their scapegoats. Something needs to be done. This is something.

    Its all displacement activity. Just like scandal of grooming gangs descended into Musk is interfering and doesn't understand.

    All the yutt with their zombie knives aren't getting those off Amazon, they will get them from dodgy resellers from social media who won't be asking for two forms of id, a live video, etc etc etc. All that has happened now is Maureen who wants a new kitchen knife will now have to jump through some more hurdles to get it off Amazon.

    And the issue with the Southport terrorist of course isn't really that he got a knife of Amazon.
    So, what *is* the issue?
    Well for starters it looks highly likely that the authorities have dropped the ball on a number of occasions and despite being presented multiple times that he was a danger (or at the very least very disturbed and obsessed with mass murder, terrorist organisations and how to mass kill people) didn't take any action. And the week before he stabbed all the little girls, he was stopped by his father from committing something similar, but he was still walking the streets. He also admitted to regularly carrying knives in the past and we know he also made a chemical weapon...

    But no, its that Amazon sold a 17 year old a knife is supposed the main issue....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,377

    NEW THREAD

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,996
    Sandpit said:

    Trump - sanctions on Russia if they do not do a deal

    There are already sanctions on Russia. What does he mean?
    Well Biden announced new sanctions on Russia only a couple of weeks ago, related to shipping.

    https://gcaptain.com/china-and-india-scramble-for-crude-as-sanctioned-russian-tankers-turn-back/

    There’s plenty more tools in the sanctions box if they want to use them.
    Plenty, you say? Name five.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,970
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    Trump is reprehensible but it's clear that Europe are far more comfortable attacking him than they are China or Russia, which are much much worse.
    Two things to say about that. Firstly, it is hard to 'attack' Russia and China. It is easier to 'attack' America as our connections are much more direct, both financially and especially culturally. Secondly, both Russia and China are statically awful - they were awful, and remain awful. Whereas the USA is in rather rapid decline into shitdom.
    It’s hard to attack Russia and China, so let’s not bother and just attack an ally. Nice one.
    My comment says a tad more than that.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,767

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    Trump is reprehensible but it's clear that Europe are far more comfortable attacking him than they are China or Russia, which are much much worse.
    Two things to say about that. Firstly, it is hard to 'attack' Russia and China. It is easier to 'attack' America as our connections are much more direct, both financially and especially culturally. Secondly, both Russia and China are statically awful - they were awful, and remain awful. Whereas the USA is in rather rapid decline into shitdom.
    It’s hard to attack Russia and China, so let’s not bother and just attack an ally. Nice one.
    My comment says a tad more than that.
    Only a tad.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,970
    edited 7:58AM
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    Trump is reprehensible but it's clear that Europe are far more comfortable attacking him than they are China or Russia, which are much much worse.
    Two things to say about that. Firstly, it is hard to 'attack' Russia and China. It is easier to 'attack' America as our connections are much more direct, both financially and especially culturally. Secondly, both Russia and China are statically awful - they were awful, and remain awful. Whereas the USA is in rather rapid decline into shitdom.
    It’s hard to attack Russia and China, so let’s not bother and just attack an ally. Nice one.
    My comment says a tad more than that.
    Only a tad.
    A lot more. I kept it succinct, but ignoring the 'secondly' bit shows that you are being a tad mischievous.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,858

    Andy_JS said:

    If Europe does nothing to counter Trump ‘we will be dominated, we will be crushed, we will be marginalised’ says French PM

    https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/20/europe-does-nothing-to-counter-trump-we-will-be-dominated-crushed-marginalised-french-pm/

    Maybe he should read this Matthew Syed article.

    "Scapegoating the US could be the final act of Europe’s delusional elite
    The continent’s leaders have overseen decades of failure while freeloading on America’s defence largesse"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/scapegoating-the-us-could-be-the-nal-act-of-europes-delusional-elite-9ztt9wn99
    https://archive.is/bF5Zm
    I don’t think Europe at large has been “freeloading” on the U.S.

    The U.S. has underpinned European security in order to maintain the “exorbitant privilege” of dollar hegemony.

    In exchange, Europe has very largely itself maintained its support for said hegemony and its various institutions.

    Syed might have made a more interesting case that Europe has been freeloading on American research and development. Defence is cliched, especially since he ignores both the special sensitivities around Germany, and proposals for an EU army. Even at home, Britain has decimated its armed forces, used creative accounting to boost nominal defence spending, and that is without considering whether the unusable nuclear deterrent should be counted at all.

    The rest of Syed's complaints about the modern world surely apply also to the United States, at least until this week. Open borders, woke... surely trigger words for Trump's campaigning. You can't use universal factors to explain one side's decline and the other's success.

    And to generalise wildly, this is what I do not like about the Times. Too many of its writers come off as jolly clever chaps phoning it in.

Sign In or Register to comment.