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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A timely reminder from Populus of how little most people follow political events
I like this chart because it reinforces a point that I make a lot – that most voters pay little attention to politics even big events like this week’s budget.
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Will this prove to be the end for Billy Davies?
Just as well no one wrote:
The Shapps Tweet ad could be as damaging as Liam Byrne’s “there’s no money left” handover note
Let alone devote a thread to it.
Isn't it?
just seen this on twitter
I'm afraid there is no Bingo.
kind regards -
and good luck!
Mike
I'm afraid there is no money.
It didn't include the word 'left'!
http://news.images.itv.com/image/file/223596/article_b95c8ba5203e433f_1372093121_9j-4aaqsk.jpeg
That's not something you can infer from the figures and is almost certainly not the case - for only one in five was it the *most* noticed thing. I'd be very surprised if less than half of the population haven't noticed it at all. Given that turnout in general elections these days is usually 60±5%, and that those who are least informed will share a large overlap with those who are least engaged (don't vote), it's likely that the great majority of voters noticed the pension reforms. After all, close to three-quarters of the population noticed *something* of the budget.
As an anecdote, I did overhear two men at the train station yesterday discussing the budget. The two items they mentioned were beer duty ("that won't make much difference but at least it's not up"), and bingo (not relevant to them but not referenced with cynicism or disapproval either).
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htm
The same overview shows not much happening domestically - Greens and Left up a bit, Free Democrats and Alliance for Germany both marginally under the 5% threshold.
Sovereignty over defence should be removed from nation states and handed to a European defence force, a Labour MSP has said.
Jenny Marra said the current crisis in the Crimea revealed "the folly of nation states".
Her comments came during a fringe meeting at the Scottish Labour conference in Perth.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26692400
Which makes me wonder. not very originally at all, if it's targeted at those in their 50s and 60s who are moving into the potential Tory and even UKIP vote band with increasing age.
Or one could equally point to the more voluntary stages of independence granted more voluntarily to Canada, Australia, South Africa and New Zealand between 1867 and 1947, as legitimate precursors to that of India.
That'll explain the tory poll 'surge' then.
Just as well nobody wrote.
Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT
Let alone devote a thread to it
Isn't it?
LOL
Other people's marriages are always a bit mysterious!
Correct. The press influence in particular is crashing to ever new lows while it's usually in the run up to and right in the midst of campaigning that the public usually starts to pay real attention to politics. Hence the polls and VI shifting just before the May local elections last year and why it's still too soon to be definitive about the May EU and locals two months out.
Marie Rimmer (local labour council group leader since the 80s, kept off by NEC in 2001 selection, recently ousted as council leader, 65+)
Catherine McDonald (Southwark Cllr, former SpAd to Jim Knight, runner up in Lewisham Deptford)
Denise Allen (Knowsley Cllr)
June Hitchen (Manchester Cllr)
Pruneet Grewal (shortlisted in Brentford& Isleworth and went for Coventry North East)
Theuniondivvie said:
"I'm not sure why you're so keen to construct an equivalence between avowed imperialist Churchill, and Attlee who, however imperfectly, started the process of de-colonization"
Construct an equivalence? I don't think I have ever done such a thing in my life. I am not sure I would even know how to go about it, does one need special clothing. It sounds like something Mr. Eagles might be interested in.
I only replied to your earlier comment because I didn't, and still don't, think the facts support your expressed view that the Atlee administration was hot on de-colonisation.
'‘We are showing here in Wales the difference a Labour government can make,’ Mr Miliband told last year’s Welsh party conference. ‘We can emulate the great things Carwyn is doing. There’s lots of things to learn.’
God help us.
WOMEN living in Scotland die an average 2.14 years earlier than those living in England, new figures show.
And statistics from 2010-12 show the life-expectancy gap has widened, rather than narrowed, in recent years.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/health/scottish-women-dying-sooner-than-english-1-3350099
What Scotland needs is control of Health!
Oh, hang on........
"Prestwick, which was sold for £1 to the Scottish government on 22 November last year, had a pre-tax loss of £9.77m in the final full year of its ownership by Infratil.
It was a sharp worsening of its financial position, after a £2.3m pre-tax loss in the year to March 2012.
Ms Sturgeon told Holyrood's Infrastructure Committee it was possible to get a return on the taxpayers' money and find a private sector buyer, but added MSPs should keep an open mind on possible alternatives.
She said: "Cardiff Airport is owned by the Welsh government so we shouldn't close our minds to anything around the future potential model that you might want for an airport."
I'd wait a few more days (hours?) before confidently saying it hasn't moved the polls.
Ideally you'd lose Cardiff and Bristol airport and combine them into one halfway between. (Cardiff's too small to be sustainable and is something of a vanity project, Bristol has horrifically awful transport links).
Not a hope in hell of it happening, but we could do with fewer airports generally.
'Wenger is well past his sell-by date, The owners of Arsenal will rue the day they did not sack him 2 years ago.'
Arsenal new £390m stadium & net debt £137m,Chelsea net debt £878m.
@georgeeaton: Stephen Kinnock selected as Labour candidate for Aberavon by 106-105 votes
"Previous figures had showed females born in the 1980s and 1990s in Scotland could expect to live about two years less than their English counterparts.
But a girl born today in England can expect to live to 82.8 years, the comparable figure in Scotland is just 80.7 years."
No real change - and the article makes it clear it could be a statistical fluke.
That there is a differential is not good, and something must be done about it, but if you are going to impute political blame for it at all (as your posting certainly insinuates), then most or all of it has to lie with the unionist parties who have been in power for most of people's lives, including to some extent during the minority SNP government, and all of them in the case of Westminster which also controls the health service in Scotland through the Barnett funding.
The Labour party in the Scottish parliament were going on about how devolution had had little impact on the health service's efficiency, till it was pointed out that the figures for which evidence was available were for the years in which Labour were in power. And it is remarkable that about the only doctor in the whole of Scotland who was publicly against the SNP's alcohol policies just happened to be a Labour frontbencher.
'"The couple had previously stated to the media that Kinnock would spend his weekends in Denmark, sometimes including Thursday, and that he regarded his home and base as being exclusively with his family in Copenhagen."
Sounds like he'll be a great MP when he's not in Copenhagen & London.
Has anyone told him about constituency surgeries?
'No' backers, take note.
Like Wales, Health is devolved in Scotland.
Like Wales, it appears to be falling behind England.
Yet this is somehow Westminster's fault?
Where are the Scots politicians saying 'this is concerning, perhaps we can learn from England'?
Scotland deserves better, and 'my country right or wrong' is, as Shaw observed, as sensible as 'my mother, drunk or sober....
Are the SNP planning on basing one of Eck's taxpayer funded jets there, in the unlikely event of a 'Yes'?
He'll need to travel to all those golf junkets in the style to which he's become accustomed.
- "There is a new definition of the word scaremongering - asking Alex Salmond a question he cannot answer."
- A White Paper about Scotland's future that mentions Strictly Come Dancing more often than it mentions the whisky industry isn't a document to be taken seriously.
- "The nationalists ask for an alternative to the White Paper. We have one. It's called the truth."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26692674
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/the-indyref-personality-test.1395329834
1. Even the Scotsman isn't certain that life expectancy is falling behind.
2. I didn't blame anyone - what I did say was that as you were evidently in the mood to blame a political party then you had to blame the unionist parties, including those at Westminster who were completely in charge till 2005 (through their satraps in the Scottish Office, and latterly their local reps) and still have a considerable impact through their financial allocations and PFI deals.
I thought we'd get 2-3 at least!
The British public see this year's budget as the fairest since 2010 – and nine of its policies are supported by a majority
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/03/21/budget-2014-fairest-since-2010/
I wonder though if he'll be claiming second home allowance for the Copenhagen mansion and the weekly first class travel to it.
Remember Labour have no objection to people getting 'filthy stinking rich'.
Especially when its Labour political clans getting 'filthy, stinking rich'.
LAB 40% (-5)
SNP 31% (+8)
CON 18% (+2)
LIBDEM 6% (-2)
UKIP 2% (-3)
1,039 adults in Scotland were interviewed by telephone between 4 and 8 October 2013.
(+/- change from Ashcroft poll Feb 2013)
Rather more to the point, if the purchase includes the land, then I'd think it an extremely sensible long-term strategic investment - on a railway line, fog free (which is why it was put there in the first place thanks to a quirk of local weather), a (pre-privatisation?) RAF rescue helicopter base, and so on.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/03/21/this-map-shows-what-the-loss-of-crimea-really-means-for-ukraine/
Still, no one is asking are they?
Its down to:
'poverty from the Thatcher era', (you)
'Westminster stealing our money' (Malcolm)
and so forth, isn't it?
Always someone else's fault.......
- David Cameron
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falkland_Islands_sovereignty_referendum,_2013
The same has not been said about Crimea......
Everyone who contributes to a money purchase pension will benefit from the increased choice provided in the budget. The majority of these contributors will probably be below 40, maybe lower. However, younger people are unlikely to be thinking about how to redeem the pension when they retire.
More pertinently, politicians should be warning people that in a globalised world we should expect earnings across the world to converge. Why should a computer programmer, designer, mathematician, footballer or investment banker in the Uk expect to earn more than one in China, India or Indonesia?
Whilst former third world salaries are rising, we can expect developed world salaries to decline as a result of competition from workers in China, India and Indonesia.
Labour must "stop hating Salmond and the SNP" and be tolerant of the dissident Labour For Independence group, former First Minister Henry McLeish has said.
He sat alongside Allan Grogan, leader of Labour For Independence (LFI), at a packed fringe meeting at the Labour Party Conference in Perth and urged his party to be "tolerant of dissident voices".
The UK is a "union in decline" and requires a stronger devolution settlement than the party is currently offering with its Powers For A Purpose report, he said.
Mr McLeish's confirmation that he will vote No to independence was met with "delight" by Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran...
"I don't like the fact that Salmond won in 2007 and 2011, but let's remember somebody must have voted for him and if you look at the polls just now they are not good for the Holyrood election.
... He added: "We have got to spell out what a No vote actually means. A Yes vote is obvious.
"If it's a Yes vote on September 18 then it's back to the day jobs and we're moving in a different direction.
"But a No vote could mean many things to many people, and I think we have got to try and clarify.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/henry-mcleish-labour-must-stop-hating-the-snp.1395504883
In any case, other things, like public information campaigns may have more to do with it.
But as long as you go on blaming others for your ills, as you have just done, you'll never learn, will you? Its the easy way out.....
Wotcha, Mr. G.,
Did you see my true story from the butchers this morning? You might have been off hoovering your patio when I posted it buy as I think it will make you laugh I'll repeat it here:
"I have just been up to the shops and in the butchers I was in the queue behind an elderly lady who wanted to buy some fillet steak. Clive, the butcher, showed her some very nice looking steak indeed. "Where is it from?" asked the old girl. "Its Aberdeen Angus meat and actually from from Aberdeenshire", says Clive. "Oh, no!" she said, "I only buy British meat".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_sovereignty_referendum,_1973
The SNP are a political party like any other in Scotland or the the UK, I just wish they would stop trying to hijack our flag and our country as if they owned the rights to being a proud Highlander or Scot because they are nationalists. If I criticise Alex Salmond, the SNP, their policies or simple scrutinise their claims in the Independence debate and disagree or find them dishonest. This does not mean that I am talking down my own country of Scotland or my fellow Scots, nor does it mean that I am bluffing or bullying the Scottish people as a result. Its just means I want to be aware of all the facts before I make such an important decision that will effect my future in Scotland.
had fun powerwashing, had sun , rain and hailstones whilst doing it. Having a well earned refreshment now.